Accuracy of MELD scores in predicting mortality in decompensated cirrhosis from variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, alcoholic hepatitis, or acute liver failure as well as mortality after non-transplant surgery or TIPS

Aetiology of chronic liver disease is a valuable factor for stratifying adverse outcomes of acute decompensation: prospective observational study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Acute decompensation (AD) is defined as the development of complications related to portal hypertension and liver dysfunction that affect the progression of chronic liver disease (CLD) or liver cirrhosis (LC). Variations exist in patient demographics and prognostic outcomes of AD based on the aetiology of CLD, encompassing LC. However, limited research has been conducted to analyse these discrepancies across aetiologies.

METHODS

The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort consisted of 1,501 patients who were hospitalized with AD of CLD from July 2015 to August 2018. In this study, we assess the clinical attributes and prognostic implications of AD with CLD/LC stratified by the aetiology.

RESULTS

Among 1,501 patients, the mean age was 54.7 years old and 1,118 patients (74.5%) were men. The common events of AD were GI bleeding (35.3%) and jaundice (35.0%). There was a median follow-up of 8.0 months (1.0-16.0 months). The most common aetiology of CLD was alcohol (n = 1021), followed by viral hepatitis (n = 206), viral hepatitis with alcohol-related (n = 129), cryptogenic (n = 108) and autoimmune (n = 37). Viral hepatitis with alcohol-related CLD showed a poor liver function profile and a high frequency of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) [22.1% vs. 19.6% (alcohol CLD), 8.1% (viral CLD), 5.6% (autoimmune related CLD and 16.0% (cryptogenic CLD)] with worse adverse outcomes (mortality or liver transplantation) than other aetiologies. The difference in aetiology was a significant factor for 28-day adverse outcomes in multivariate analysis even in a high MELD score (≥15), which indicated poor baseline liver function and prognosis (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The aetiology of CLD constitutes a pivotal determinant influencing both short- and long-term adverse outcomes of AD in CLD, even among individuals presenting with elevated MELD scores. Notably, patients afflicted with viral hepatitis should exercise caution even in the consumption of modest quantities of alcohol that induced the exacerbations in the adverse outcomes associated with AD.

Prognosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of death from cancer worldwide. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is associated with poor prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors, differences in clinical characteristics and prognosis of SBP in patients with HCC in comparison with non-HCC patients.

METHODS

This study was conducted on patients with cirrhosis who were admitted to hospital with SBP. The patients were divided into two groups: SBP group with HCC (n = 150) and SBP group without HCC (n = 250).

RESULTS

Men and women accounted for 72% and 28% (n = 108 and 42, respectively) of the population in SBP group with HCC with mean age 55.8 ± 13.1 years. They accounted for 68.4% and 31.6% (n = 171 and 79, respectively) in the SBP group without HCC with mean age 56.8 ± 10.5 years. In-hospital mortality was 25.3% in the SBP group with HCC and 18.8% in SBP group without HCC. Gastrointestinal bleeding was the most common cause of death in both groups. No significant difference was observed in patient outcomes between the two studied groups. The deceased patients had significantly higher levels of leukocytes and neutrophils in ascitic fluid as well as a higher frequency of positive culture results than in patients who survived (p < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in protein level in ascitic fluid or causative organism between patients who survived and those who died (p = 0.63 and 0.19, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Prognosis of SBP in patients with HCC seemed similar to that in patients without HCC.

Role of Quantitation of Saline Bubble Studies in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

Microbubble contrast echocardiography with a late positive signal enables the detection of intrapulmonary vascular dilation, including hepatopulmonary syndrome, in patients with end-stage liver disease. We assessed the relationship between the severity of bubble study and clinical outcome.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 163 consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent an echocardiogram with bubble study from 2018 to 2021. Patients who were diagnosed with a late positive signal were divided into three groups: grade 1 (1-9 bubbles), grade 2 (10-30 bubbles) and grade 3 (>30 bubbles).

RESULTS

Fifty-six percent of the patients had a late positive bubble study (grade 1: 31%, grade 2: 23%, grade 3: 46%). Patients with grade 3 had a significantly higher international normalized ratio, model for end-stage liver disease score and Child-Pugh score and a lower peripheral oxygen saturation compared with patients with a negative study. In patients undergoing liver transplant (LT), survival rates were similar among the groups (3-mo: >87%, 1-y: >87%, 2-y: >83%). However, survival rate was lower in grade 3 patients without LT (3-mo: 81%, 1-y: 64%, 2-y: 39%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with grade 3 had much worse mortality without LT compared with other groups. However, after LT, all grades had equal survival. Therefore, patients with grade 3 may be considered as higher priority for LT.

Long-Term Prognosis and Related Factors in Patients with Cirrhosis Treated with Balloon-Occluded Retrograde Transvenous Obliteration

INTRODUCTION

Balloon-occluded retrograde transvenous obliteration (BRTO) was developed as an effective treatment for gastric varices in patients with cirrhosis. Because liver fibrosis in these patients is assumed to be advanced, their prognosis is expected to be poor. In this study, we investigated the prognosis and characteristics of the patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 55 consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis treated with BRTO between 2009 and 2021 at our department. To evaluate factors related to variceal recurrence and long-term prognosis, survival analysis was performed on 45 patients, excluding those who died within 1 month, had an unknown prognosis, or whose treatments were converted to other treatments.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 2.3 years, esophageal varices recurred in 10 patients and could be treated endoscopically. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was related to the variceal recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.27, 95% CI: 1.17-15.5, p = 0.028). The survival rate after the procedure at 1, 3, and 5 years was 94.2%, 74.0%, and 63.5%, respectively, and 10 patients died of hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 6), liver failure (n = 1), sepsis (n = 1), and unknown reasons (n = 2). The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level was proved to be a significant poor prognostic factor (HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, p = 0.023). The comorbid hypertension (HTN) was the main cause of low eGFR, and HTN was also significantly related to survival (HR = 6.18, 95% CI: 1.57-24.3, p = 0.009). Most of the patients with HTN were treated with calcium channel blocker and/or angiotensin receptor blocker.

CONCLUSION

The clinical course of patients with cirrhosis treated with BRTO was dependent on the metabolic factors including renal function, comorbid HTN, and NASH.

Risk factors for hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in cirrhosis: The role of cognitive impairment, muscle alterations and shunts

INTRODUCTION/AIM

Muscle alterations, portosystemic shunts (SPSS) and minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) are related to hepatic encephalopathy (HE), however no studies have investigated the relative role of all these risk factors detected in the same patients. The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic impact of muscle alterations, MHE and SPSS on hepatic encephalopathy and transplant free survival.

PATIENTS/METHODS

114 cirrhotics were submitted to Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES) and Animal Naming Test (ANT) to detect MHE. CT scan was used to analyze the skeletal muscle index (SMI), muscle attenuation and SPSS. The incidence of the first episode of HE and survival were estimated.

RESULTS

Previous HE was present in 47 patients (41%). The variables independently associated to previous HE were: sarcopenia, MHE and SPSS. 44 patients (39%) developed overt HE during 14±11 months; MHE and SPSS were the only variables significantly asociated to overt HE. During the same follow-up, 42 patients died (37%); MELD and sarcopenia were the only variables significantly asociated to transplant free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

MHE, sarcopenia and SPSS are clinically relevant and should be sought for in cirrhotics. In particular, MHE and SPSS are the only risk factors significantly associated to the development of HE while MELD and sarcopenia are independently associated to overall mortality.

North American Practice-Based Recommendations for Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts in Portal Hypertension

Complications of portal hypertension, including ascites, gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatic hydrothorax, and hepatic encephalopathy, are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite few high-quality randomized controlled trials to guide therapeutic decisions, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation has emerged as a crucial therapeutic option to treat complications of portal hypertension. In North America, the decision to perform TIPS involves gastroenterologists, hepatologists, and interventional radiologists, but TIPS creation is performed by interventional radiologists. This is in contrast to other parts of the world where TIPS creation is performed primarily by hepatologists. Thus, the successful use of TIPS in North America is dependent on a multidisciplinary approach and technical expertise, so as to optimize outcomes. Recently, new procedural techniques, TIPS stent technology, and indications for TIPS have emerged. As a result, practices and outcomes vary greatly across institutions and significant knowledge gaps exist. In this consensus statement, the Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches group critically reviews the application of TIPS in the management of portal hypertension. Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches convened a multidisciplinary group of North American experts from hepatology, interventional radiology, transplant surgery, nephrology, cardiology, pulmonology, and hematology to critically review existing literature and develop practice-based recommendations for the use of TIPS in patients with any cause of portal hypertension in terms of candidate selection, procedural best practices and, post-TIPS management; and to develop areas of consensus for TIPS indications and the prevention of complications. Finally, future research directions are identified related to TIPS for the management of portal hypertension.

The Effect of Artificial Liver Support System on Prognosis of HBV-Derived Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) could occur when patients get decompensated liver cirrhosis. Meanwhile, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection raises the risk of mortality of the end-stage liver diseases. As the artificial liver support system (ALSS) has been applied in liver failure, whether ALSS could benefit HBV-derived HRS remains uncertain. We retrospectively enlisted eligible HRS patients and compared the baseline characteristics and prognosis between HBV-derived HRS and non-HBV-derived HRS. Furthermore, propensity score matching (PSM) and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the beneficial effect of ALSS on HBV-derived HRS. In addition, a stratified analysis was carried out according to the degree of acute kidney injury (AKI) and the number of organ failures to observe in which populations ALSS can obtain the most excellent therapeutic effect. 669 patients were diagnosed as HRS, including 298 HBV negative and 371 HBV positive. Baseline characteristics were different between patients with HBV positive and HBV negative. HBV-derived HRS has higher 28-day mortality, though without a statistical difference. After PSM, 50 patients treated with ALSS and 150 patients treated with standard medical treatment (SMT) constituted a new cohort for the following analysis. We found that ALSS could significantly benefit HRS patients (P = 0.025). Moreover, the median survival time of patients treated with ALSS was longer than those treated with SMT. INR, neutrophil percentage, and treatment with ALSS were independent predictive factors for short-term mortality in HBV-derived HRS. The stratified analysis showed that ALSS could reduce the 28-day mortality of patients with HBV-derived HRS, especially those in AKI stage 3 and with organ failure ≥ 2. Additionally, serum bilirubin was significantly lower after ALSS, and the alteration of INR and creatinine were independent predictive elements for the mortality of HBV-derived HRS. HBV-derived HRS is more severe than non-HBV-derived HRS and has a worse prognosis. ALSS could reduce the short-term mortality of patients with HBV-derived HRS, especially those in AKI stage 3 and with organ failure ≥ 2. INR and the change of creatinine and INR could predict the prognosis of HBV-derived HRS. ChiCTR2200060123.

Prediction of Patient Survival with Psoas Muscle Density Following Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Psoas muscle density (PMD) as a nutritional indicator is a tool to evaluate sarcopenia, which is commonly diagnosed in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, there are limited data on its role in patients who have received a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to determine the utility of PMD in predicting mortality of patients with TIPS implantation and to compare the clinical value of PMD, Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD paired with serum sodium measurement (MELD-Na) score in predicting post-TIPS survival in 1 year.

Material/Methods

This retrospective study included 273 patients who met the criteria for study inclusion. All participants underwent computed tomography (CT) scans, Child-Pugh score evaluation, MELD-Na scoring, and MELD scoring. Post-TIPS survival time was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. The prognostic values of scoring models such as the Child-Pugh score, MELD, MELD-Na, and PMD were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results

During the 1-year follow-up period, 31 of 273 (11.36%) post-TIPS patients died. Multivariate analysis identified PMD as an independent protective factor. PMD showed a good ability to predict the occurrence of an endpoint within 1 year after TIPS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for PMD, Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and MELD-Na for predicting mortality were, respectively, 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.663–0.773), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.531–0.651), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.535–0.655), and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.487–0.608).

Conclusions

PMD has appreciable clinical value for predicting the mortality of patients with TIPS implantation. In addition, PMD is superior to established scoring systems for identifying high-risk patients with a poor prognosis.

Evidence-based protocol for diagnosis and treatment of hepatorenal syndrome is independently associated with lower mortality

BACKGROUND

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is the deadliest complication of cirrhosis. The purpose of this study is to analyze if the use of a protocol for HRS is associated with higher survival in these patients.

METHODS

An evidence-based protocol for the diagnosis and treatment of HRS was instituted in 2013. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital database for patients who received terlipressin, in the three years before and after the institution of the protocol. Data were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis of HRS and multiple variables were collected. Liver-specific scores were calculated and a stepwise Cox regression approach was used for univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 46 patients, 20 from the pre-protocol period and 26 from the post-protocol period. Respectively, mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 365 days was 75%, 75% and 90% for the pre-protocol period, and 61%, 69% and 80% for the post-protocol period. In the multivariate analysis, an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) of <40U/L, the pre-protocol period and higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were associated with higher 30-day and 90-day mortality. The total mean dose of terlipressin and human albumin used per patient was reduced from 27mg to 22mg and from 236g to 144g, respectively, after the institution of the protocol. This was not associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSION

The use of an evidence-based protocol for the treatment of HRS translated into a higher survival. The authors suggest that the use of evidence-based protocols for the diagnosis and treatment of HRS could reduce cost and mortality in tertiary hospitals.

Hepatorenal syndrome: a Nationwide Trend Analysis from 2008 to 2018

OBJECTIVE

This study was designed to assess the epidemiological trends and outcomes associated with Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS).

METHODS

This retrospective interrupted trend study used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database for the years 2008, 2012, 2014, 20z16 and 2018 to identify adult (≥18 years) hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of HRS. We determined epidemiological characteristics and trends for HRS hospitalizations. Additionally, we also calculated the inpatient mortality, mean length of stay (LOS) and mean total hospital charge (THC) using a multivariate regression trend analysis.

RESULTS

There was an increase in the total number of HRS hospitalizations from 22,864 in 2008 to 42,985 in 2018 with a trend towards increasing hospitalizations (p-trend <.001). The mean age for these hospitalizations ranged from 57.4-59.0 years with a significantly rising trend (p-trend <.001). Although the majority of HRS hospitalizations were men, we observed a trend towards increasing hospitalizations for women with an increase from 35.7% in 2008 to 39% in 2018 (p-trend <.001). Additionally, Whites made up a majority of the sample size (Table 1). After a multivariate regression trend analysis, we found a statistically significant trend towards declining inpatient mortality from 36.2% in 2008 to 25.7% in 2018 (p-trend <.001) for HRS hospitalizations (Table 2). We did not find a statistically significant trend for LOS and THC.[Table: see text][Table: see text].

CONCLUSION

Total hospitalizations, hospitalizations for women and the mean age for HRS hospitalizations were on the rise between 2008 and 2018. However, the inpatient mortality declined.KEY MESSAGESIn the United States, there was a trend towards increasing hospitalizations and mean age for HRS.Although a male predominance was noted, HRS hospitalizations for women were on the rise.The inpatient mortality for HRS hospitalizations was on a decline and may indicate significant improvements in management.

Comparison of transient elastography and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium alone to predict mortality and liver transplantation

OBJECTIVES

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) alone and with sodium (MELD-Na) have decreasing predictive capacity as trends in liver disease evolve. We sought to combine transient elastography (TE) with MELD-Na to improve its predictive ability.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study comparing the use of TE, MELD-Na, and composite MELD-Na-TE to predict liver transplantation and all-cause mortality, with hepatic decompensation as a secondary outcome. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to measure predictive ability and control for confounders.

RESULTS

Of the 214 patients, the mean age was 53 years with 35% being female and 76% being Caucasian. Hepatitis C (59%) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (22%) were the most frequent liver disease etiologies. On univariable analysis, MELD-Na [hazard ratio (HR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.2, P < 0.001], TE (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06, P < 0.001) and composite MELD-Na-TE (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08-1.19, P < 0.001) were associated with death or transplant. On multivariable analysis, MELD-Na was no longer significant (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.95-1.22, P = 0.27) after adjusting for TE (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001) while composite MELD-Na-TE remained significant (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.09-1.24, P < 0.001). Composite MELD-Na-TE predicts mortality or liver transplant with the highest C-statistic of 0.81. Age (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1-1.09, P = 0.04), TE (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06, P < 0.001) and composite MELD-Na-TE (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.15, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with hepatic decompensation.

CONCLUSION

Composite MELD-Na-TE better predicts liver transplantation, death, and hepatic decompensation compared to MELD/MELD-Na or TE alone.

Identification of the Most Important Subset of Doppler, Laboratory, and Clinical Parameters for Serial TIPS Evaluation

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of the present study was to identify the subset of a wide range of serial Doppler, laboratory, and clinical parameters most predictive (both individually and in combination) of TIPS dysfunction in a large patient sample. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The medical records of 189 patients who had undergone TIPS procedures were analyzed. The patients (mean age, 52 years; 62% of whom were men) had undergone 1139 Doppler studies and 323 portovenograms. Laboratory parameters included model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, serum albumin levels, presence of ascites, and time since last intervention. Doppler parameters included intrashunt velocities, temporal change in intrashunt velocities, main portal vein velocity, direction of flow in the left portal hepatic vein, and venous pulsatility index. Statistical analysis used ROC, univariate, and multivariate regression models to assess the parameters both individually and in combination. Shunt dysfunction was defined by a portosystemic gradient of more than 12 mm Hg. RESULTS. The laboratory and clinical parameters of greatest predictive value included the MELD score and the time since the last intervention. The Doppler parameters that were of greatest predictive value included the change in velocity at the hepatic venous end and the left portal vein flow direction. Multivariate models produced an AUC of 0.74. Differences between functional and dysfunctional shunts were also statistically significant for absolute velocity at the hepatic venous end, the change in velocity within the stent, and the temporal change in the mid shunt velocity. CONCLUSION. The subset of serial parameters most predictive of TIPS dysfunction are the temporal change in the velocity at the hepatic venous end, the absolute velocity at the hepatic venous end, the direction of flow in the left portal venous branch, and changes in the MELD score.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Radiologic Management of Portal Hypertension

Cirrhosis is a heterogeneous disease that cannot be studied as a single entity and is classified in two main prognostic stages: compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Portal hypertension, characterized by a pathological increase of the portal pressure and by the formation of portal-systemic collaterals that bypass the liver, is the initial and main consequence of cirrhosis and is responsible for the majority of its complications. A myriad of treatment options exists for appropriately managing the most common complications of portal hypertension, including acute variceal bleeding and refractory ascites. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Guidelines on the management of ascites in cirrhosis

The British Society of Gastroenterology in collaboration with British Association for the Study of the Liver has prepared this document. The aim of this guideline is to review and summarise the evidence that guides clinical diagnosis and management of ascites in patients with cirrhosis. Substantial advances have been made in this area since the publication of the last guideline in 2007. These guidelines are based on a comprehensive literature search and comprise systematic reviews in the key areas, including the diagnostic tests, diuretic use, therapeutic paracentesis, use of albumin, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and beta-blockers in patients with ascites. Where recent systematic reviews and meta-analysis are available, these have been updated with additional studies. In addition, the results of prospective and retrospective studies, evidence obtained from expert committee reports and, in some instances, reports from case series have been included. Where possible, judgement has been made on the quality of information used to generate the guidelines and the specific recommendations have been made according to the 'Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE)' system. These guidelines are intended to inform practising clinicians, and it is expected that these guidelines will be revised in 3 years' time.

A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP).

METHODS

This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.

Impact of Integrating Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Levels into Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score for Survival Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Liver reserve affects survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict overall survival (OS) and to prioritize HCC patients on the transplantation waiting list, but more accurate models are needed. We hypothesized that integrating insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels into MELD score (MELD-IGF-1) improves OS prediction as compared to MELD.

METHODS

We measured plasma IGF-1 levels in training (n = 310) and validation (n = 155) HCC cohorts and created MELD-IGF-1 score. Cox models were used to determine the association of MELD and MELD-IGF-1 with OS. Harrell's c-index was used to compare the predictive capacity.

RESULTS

IGF-1 was significantly associated with OS in both cohorts. Patients with an IGF-1 level of ≤26 ng/mL in the training cohort and in the validation cohorts had significantly higher hazard ratios than patients with the same MELD but IGF-1 >26 ng/mL. In both cohorts, MELD-IGF-1 scores had higher c-indices (0.60 and 0.66) than MELD scores (0.58 and 0.60) (p < 0.001 in both cohorts). Overall, 26% of training and 52.9% of validation cohort patients were reclassified into different risk groups by MELD-IGF-1 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

After independent validation, the MELD-IGF-1 could be used to risk-stratify patients in clinical trials and for priority assignment for patients on liver transplantation waiting list.

HEP-Net opinion on the management of ascites and its complications in the setting of decompensated cirrhosis in the resource constrained environment of Pakistan

Approximately one half of patients develop ascites within 10 years of diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis. It is a poor prognostic indicator, with only 50% surviving beyond two years. Mortality worsens significantly to 20% to 50% at one year if the ascites becomes refractory to medical therapy. Pakistan has one of the highest prevalence of viral hepatitis in the world and patients with ascites secondary to liver cirrhosis make a major percentage of both inpatient and outpatient burden. Studies indicate that over 80% of patients admitted with ascites have liver cirrhosis as the cause. This expert opinion suggests proper assessment of patients with ascites in the presence of underlying cirrhosis. This expert opinion includes appropriate diagnosis and management of uncomplicated ascites, refractory ascites and complicated ascites (including spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) ascites, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and hyponatremia. The purpose behind this expert opinion is to help consultants, postgraduate trainees, medical officers and primary care physicians optimally manage their patients with cirrhosis and ascites in a resource constrained setting as is often encountered in a developing country like Pakistan.

Evaluation of Renal Disease in Patients With Cirrhosis

Renal dysfunction in cirrhosis is common and is associated with increased mortality. Identifying and treating reversible causes of renal disease can significantly improve outcomes. The etiology, approach, and evaluation of renal disease in this group of patients is similar to the noncirrhosis patient, with a few specific caveats. Renal disease may be unrelated to the cause of cirrhosis (eg, prerenal acute kidney injury, acute tubular necrosis), occur as a manifestation of the same systemic disease responsible for the liver disease (eg, chronic viral hepatitis B and C infection) or as a consequence of cirrhosis (hepatorenal syndrome). Kidney impairment may be underrecognized in patients with cirrhosis due to over-reliance on creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate equations used in clinical practice. The first steps of evaluation for the renal disease include a thorough medical history to identify the underlying cause of cirrhosis and any potential trigger for renal dysfunction, physical examination, and review of prior laboratory records for baseline renal function. Renal imaging and urinalysis should be performed on all cirrhotic patients with renal dysfunction to establish the presence of urinary obstruction, chronicity and intrinsic renal disease.

The decreasing predictive power of MELD in an era of changing etiology of liver disease

The field of liver transplantation has shifted considerably in the MELD era, including changing allocation, immunosuppression, and liver failure etiologies, as well as better supportive therapies. Our aim was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the MELD score over time. The United Network for Organ Sharing provided de-identified data on 120 156 patients listed for liver transplant from 2002-2016. The ability of the MELD score to predict 90-day mortality was evaluated by a concordance (C-) statistic and corroborated with competing risk analysis. The MELD score's concordance with 90-day mortality has downtrended from 0.80 in 2003 to 0.70 in 2015. While lab MELD scores at listing and transplant climbed in that interval, score at waitlist death remained steady near 35. Listing age increased from 50 to 54 years. HCV-positive status at listing dropped from 33 to 17%. The concordance of MELD and mortality does not differ with age (>60 = 0.73, <60 = 0.74), but is lower in diseases that are increasing most rapidly-alcoholic liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-and higher in those that are declining, particularly in HCV-positive patients (HCV positive = 0.77; negative = 0.73). While MELD still predicts mortality, its accuracy has decreased; changing etiology of disease may contribute.

The additive value of sarcopenia, myosteatosis and hepatic encephalopathy in the predictivity of model for end-stage liver disease

BACKGROUND

Since the use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score for establishing the prognosis of cirrhotic patients has been introduced, questions have been raised whether complications of liver cirrhosis would provide additional information. Myosteatosis, sarcopenia and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) are frequent in cirrhosis and may affect prognosis. Aim of the study was analyzing if these factors are independently related to survival and may improve the accuracy of MELD.

METHODS

249 cirrhotics that underwent abdominal CT-scan were enrolled. For each patient, information about previous episodes of HE and muscle alterations were obtained. Patients were followed until transplantation or death.

RESULTS

History of HE, MELD, sarcopenia and myosteatosis were independently associated with mortality. The MELD-Sarco-Myo-HE score added accuracy to the MELD score alone for 6- and 3-months mortality. By removing HE, as the only not quantifiable parameter of the model, no relevant decrease in accuracy for 6- and 3-months mortality detection was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The accuracy of MELD in predicting 3- and 6-months mortality may be improved by considering the muscle alterations. A model considering the above parameters may classify more accurately over 30% of the patients.

The burden of illness of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) in the United States: a retrospective analysis of electronic health records

OBJECTIVES

Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS) is characterized by renal failure in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (CLD) and is the leading cause of hospitalizations in CLD. This study examines the clinical and economic burden, outcomes, and unmet need of HRS treatment in US hospitals.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on a large electronic health records database (Cerner HealthFacts) with records for hospitalized HRS patients from January 2009-June 2015. Demographics, clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, and economic outcomes were analyzed. Prognostic indicators of cirrhosis, kidney injury, end-stage liver disease, and acute-on-chronic liver failure were used to determine mortality risk.

RESULTS

A total of 2,542 patients hospitalized with HRS were identified (average age = 57.9 years, 61.8% males, 74.2% Caucasian), with an average total hospital charge of $91,504 per patient and a mean length of stay (LOS) of 30.5 days. The mortality rate was 36.9% with 8.9% of patients discharged to hospice. Of all patients, 1,660 patients had acute kidney injury, 859 with Stage 3 disease, and 26.7% had dialysis. The 30-day readmission rate was 33.1%, 41% of which were unplanned. Nearly one-third of study patients had commercial insurance (30.2%), followed by Medicare (29.9%); hospital charges varied by LOS, receipt of dialysis, and discharge status. Regression analysis demonstrated that HRS costs are associated with LOS, dialysis, and hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

HRS is associated with poor outcomes and high hospital costs. Analysis of HRS cost drivers demonstrated an unmet need for additional treatment options to improve outcomes in this patient population.

Different scoring systems to predict 6-week mortality in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding: a retrospective analysis of 202 patients

OBJECTIVE

Determine the optimal scoring system for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Prediction effects of six scoring systems, AIMS65 score, Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score, full Rockall (FRS) score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), the MELD-Na model and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score were analyzed in this study.

METHODS

A total of 202 liver cirrhosis patients with AVB were enrolled between 1 January 2014, and 31 December 2014. All subjects were scored according to AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP scoring systems on the first day of admission. The primary endpoint of the study was 6-week mortality. The prediction effect of these scoring systems for 6-week mortality was compared by ROC curve and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The scores of nonsurvival group evaluated by the AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP (2.6 ± 1.1, 12.9 ± 2.7, 6.6 ± 1.8, 26.9 ± 6.5, 31.6 ± 9.3, 9.6 ± 2.2, respectively) were higher than those of the survival group (1.2 ± 1.1, 10.2 ± 3.4, 5.1 ± 1.6, 21.0 ± 6.4, 22.8 ± 8.2, 7.7 ± 2.0, respectively) (p < .01). The values of AUC and Youden index of AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems [(0.808, 0.453) and (0.781, 0.516), respectively] were superior to those of MELD (0.761, 0.454), CTP (0.748, 0.399), FRS (0.738, 0.358) and GBS scoring systems (0.726, 0.370).

CONCLUSIONS

AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems are recommended for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with AVB.

Development of an automated phenotyping algorithm for hepatorenal syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS) is a devastating form of acute kidney injury (AKI) in advanced liver disease patients with high morbidity and mortality, but phenotyping algorithms have not yet been developed using large electronic health record (EHR) databases. We evaluated and compared multiple phenotyping methods to achieve an accurate algorithm for HRS identification.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A national retrospective cohort of patients with cirrhosis and AKI admitted to 124 Veterans Affairs hospitals was assembled from electronic health record data collected from 2005 to 2013. AKI was defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Five hundred and four hospitalizations were selected for manual chart review and served as the gold standard. Electronic Health Record based predictors were identified using structured and free text clinical data, subjected through NLP from the clinical Text Analysis Knowledge Extraction System. We explored several dimension reduction techniques for the NLP data, including newer high-throughput phenotyping and word embedding methods, and ascertained their effectiveness in identifying the phenotype without structured predictor variables. With the combined structured and NLP variables, we analyzed five phenotyping algorithms: penalized logistic regression, naïve Bayes, support vector machines, random forest, and gradient boosting. Calibration and discrimination metrics were calculated using 100 bootstrap iterations. In the final model, we report odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the different models ranged from 0.73 to 0.93; with penalized logistic regression having the best discriminatory performance. Calibration for logistic regression was modest, but gradient boosting and support vector machines were superior. NLP identified 6985 variables; a priori variable selection performed similarly to dimensionality reduction using high-throughput phenotyping and semantic similarity informed clustering (AUC of 0.81 - 0.82).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated improved phenotyping of a challenging AKI etiology, HRS, over ICD-9 coding. We also compared performance among multiple approaches to EHR-derived phenotyping, and found similar results between methods. Lastly, we showed that automated NLP dimension reduction is viable for acute illness.

Ascites Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Identifies Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis and Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a marker of both tissue injury and infection. Urine NGAL levels strongly predict acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but ascites NGAL is not well characterized. We hypothesized that ascites NGAL level is a marker of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites undergoing diagnostic paracentesis were prospectively enrolled and followed until death or discharge. Patients with secondary peritonitis, prior transplantation, or active colitis were excluded. NGAL was measured in the ascites and serum. Ascites NGAL level was evaluated as a marker of SBP (defined as ascites absolute neutrophil count > 250 cells/mm³) and predictor of in-patient mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 146 patients were enrolled, and of these, 29 patients (20%) had SBP. Baseline characteristics were similar between subjects with and without SBP. Median (IQR) ascites NGAL was significantly higher in patients with SBP compared to those without SBP (221.3 [145.9-392.9] vs. 139.2 [73.9-237.2], p < 0.01). Sixteen (11%) patients died in the hospital. In the final multivariable model, ascites NGAL (OR 1.02 per 10 units, p < 0.01) remained predictive of in-hospital mortality, controlling for SBP (OR 9.76, p < 0.01) and MELD (OR 1.11, p = 0.01). In ROC analysis, ascites NGAL had an AUC of 0.79 for inhospital mortality, and the final model including ascites NGAL, MELD, and SBP had an AUC of 0.94.

CONCLUSIONS

Ascites NGAL level may be a biomarker of peritonitis in hospitalized patient with cirrhosis and an independent predictor of short-term in-hospital mortality, even controlling for SBP and MELD.

From diagnosis to treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: An epidemic problem for both developed and developing world

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most frequent primary liver malignancy and the third cause of cancer-related death in the Western Countries. The well-established causes of HCC are chronic liver infections such as hepatitis B virus or chronic hepatitis C virus, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, consumption of aflatoxins and tobacco smocking. Clinical presentation varies widely; patients can be asymptomatic while symptomatology extends from right upper abdominal quadrant paint and weight loss to obstructive jaundice and lethargy. Imaging is the first key and one of the most important aspects at all stages of diagnosis, therapy and follow-up of patients with HCC. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Staging System remains the most widely classification system used for HCC management guidelines. Up until now, HCC remains a challenge to early diagnose, and treat effectively; treating management is focused on hepatic resection, orthotopic liver transplantation, ablative therapies, chemoembolization and systemic therapies with cytotocix drugs, and targeted agents. This review article describes the current evidence on epidemiology, symptomatology, diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Should We Use the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to Predict Mortality After Colorectal Surgery?

We sought to determine the accuracy of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and the Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator in patients with ascites who underwent colorectal surgery. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for patients with ascites who underwent a major colorectal operation. Predicted 90-day mortality rate based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and 30-day mortality based on the Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator were compared with observed 30-day mortality. The cohort contained 3137 patients with ascites who underwent a colorectal operation. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease predicted that 252 (8 %) of patients with ascites undergoing colorectal operations would die within 90 days postoperatively, yet we observed 821 deaths (26 % mortality) within 30 days after surgery (p < 0.001). The Mayo Clinic Postoperative Mortality Risk in Patients with Cirrhosis Calculator predicted that 491 (16.6 % mortality) of patients with ascites undergoing colorectal operations would die within 30 days postoperatively, yet we observed 707 (23.9 % mortality) at 30 days (p < 0.01). We concluded that the current risk prediction models significantly under predict mortality in patients with ascites who underwent colorectal surgery.

Three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumour thrombosis: evaluating effectiveness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score compared with the Child-Pugh classification

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the effectiveness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score compared with the Child-Pugh classification in patients who received three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT) by analyzing toxicity and prognostic factors.

METHODS

56 consecutive patients who had locally advanced HCC with PVTT treated by 3D CRT between September 2007 and April 2013 were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

The median survival time of all patients was 6.4 months. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis identified MELD score = 7.5 [area under the curve (AUC) 0.81] and Child-Pugh score = 6.5 (AUC 0.86) as the best cut-off values for predicting the incidence of complications over Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grade 2. There was no significant difference in the discrimination power between the MELD score and the Child-Pugh score on comparison of the two ROC curves (p = 0.17). On multivariate analysis, age, MELD score and radiotherapy dose were significant prognostic factors for overall survival (p = 0.021, 0.038 and 0.006, respectively). In contrast, the Child-Pugh classification, tumour response, PVTT response and the number of prior interventional radiologic treatments were not significant on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the best MELD score cut-off value is 7.5 and that the MELD score is a better prognostic factor than the Child-Pugh classification in 3D CRT for HCC with PVTT.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

The MELD score is useful for predicting the risk of severe toxicities and the prognosis of patients treated with 3D CRT for PVTT.

National trends of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis in decompensated cirrhosis hospitalizations in the United States

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cirrhosis affects 5.5 million patients with estimated costs of US$4 billion. Previous studies about dialysis requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D) in decompensated cirrhosis (DC) are from a single center/year. We aimed to describe national trends of incidence and impact of AKI-D in DC hospitalizations.

METHODS

We extracted our cohort from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2006-2012. We identified hospitalizations with DC and AKI-D by validated ICD9 codes. We analyzed temporal changes in DC hospitalizations complicated by AKI-D and utilized multivariable logistic regression models to estimate AKI-D impact on hospital mortality.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 3,655,700 adult DC hospitalizations from 2006 to 2012 of which 78,015 (2.1 %) had AKI-D. The proportion with AKI-D increased from 1.5 % in 2006 to 2.23 % in 2012; it was stable between 2009 and 2012 despite an increase in absolute numbers from 6773 to 13,930. The overall hospital mortality was significantly higher in hospitalizations with AKI-D versus those without (40.87 vs. 6.96 %; p < 0.001). In an adjusted multivariable analysis, adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 2.17 (95 % CI 2.06-2.28; p < 0.01) with AKI-D, which was stable from 2006 to 2012. Changes in demographics and increases in acute/chronic comorbidities and procedures explained temporal changes in AKI-D.

CONCLUSIONS

Proportion of DC hospitalizations with AKI-D increased from 2006 to 2009, and although this was stable from 2009 to 2012, there was an increase in absolute cases. These results elucidate the burden of AKI-D on DC hospitalizations and excess associated mortality, as well as highlight the importance of prevention, early diagnosis and testing of novel interventions in this vulnerable population.

Prognostic performance of clinical indices and model scorings for acute-on-chronic liver failure: A study of 164 patients

The present study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), with the perspective of an improved selection of optimal therapeutic schemes. A retrospective analysis was used to study 164 patients with ACLF hospitalized between 2010 and 2014 in a single center. Patients were divided into favorable and unfavorable groups, according to the treatment outcomes. General characteristics and clinical manifestations were analyzed to determine whether they would affect the prognosis of the patients with ACLF, with a particular focus on the scoring systems Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD with incorporation of sodium (MELD-Na), MELD and serum sodium ratio (MESO) and integrated MELD (iMELD). Hepatitis B virus infection was the predominant cause of ACLF, accounting for 88 cases (53.7%). Age, prothrombin time, thrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), prothrombin activity, serum sodium, albumin, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, platelets, fasting blood sugar, infections, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and electrolyte disorder were revealed to be associated with prognosis. Age, serum sodium, INR, HRS, and infection were independent prognostic risk factors, as determined by multivariate analysis. Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, MESO and iMELD scoring systems all demonstrated adequate predictive values, with MELD-Na as the most effective scoring system. In conclusion, age, hyponatremia, INR, HRS and bacterial or fungal infections were reported to be independent prognostic risk factors for ACLF. Among the various liver function scoring systems, MELD-Na was the most accurate in predicting the prognosis of ACLF.

Challenging hepatitis C-infected liver transplant patients

Caring for liver transplant patients suffering from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a challenging task for transplant surgeons and primary physicians alike. HCV is the leading cause of liver transplantation in the USA and comes with a myriad of complications that increase morbidity and mortality. This review focuses on patient follow-up, spanning from before the liver transplant occurs to the patient's long-term health. Pretransplant, both donor and recipient variables, must be carefully chosen to ensure optimal surgical success. Risk factors must be identified and HCV viral load must be reduced to a minimum. In addition to standard transplant complications, HCV patients suffer from additional problems, such as fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis and widespread viremia. Physicians must focus on the balance of immunosuppressive and antiviral medications, while considering possible side effects from these potent drugs. Over the years following surgery, physicians must identify any signs of failing liver health, as HCV-positive patients have an increased risk for cirrhosis and certain life-threatening malignancies.

A Standardized Assessment of Functional Disability Predicts 1-year Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt for Refractory Ascites

GOALS

To determine the association between functional disability and mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).

BACKGROUND

TIPS is a common therapeutic procedure for cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites. The conventional metric for periprocedure risk stratification is the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which uses biochemical parameters to predict post-TIPS mortality. It does not account for functional disability.

STUDY

This is a retrospective cohort study of 83 patients admitted at an academic liver transplant center with cirrhosis and refractory ascites for the purpose of TIPS placement. We assessed the association of patients' reported activities of daily living (ADL) on a scale of 1 to 21 before TIPS with a primary outcome of 1-year mortality. Multivariable regression to adjust for MELD and Child class was performed.

RESULTS

A higher ADL score or functional independence, was associated with decreased 1-year mortality when modeled as both a continuous variable [odds ratio (OR), 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.97; P=0.02) and a dichotomous variable (ADL 21 vs. <21; OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.05-0.70; P=0.01). After adjusting for MELD and Child class, functional independence was associated with decreased 1-year transplant-free mortality (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.77; P=0.02). An ADL score consistent with dependence (<21) was significantly associated with a 3.40-day (95% CI, 1.76-5.04) longer hospital stay, adjusting for MELD and Child class (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional disability is a predictor of post-TIPS mortality and length of stay after controlling for MELD.

Prognosis of acute variceal bleeding: Is being on beta-blockers an aggravating factor? A short-term survival analysis

Nonselective beta-blockers (NSBB) are widely used because they have been proved effective in the prophylaxis of acute variceal bleeding (AVB). However, a significant proportion of patients still experience AVB while on treatment with NSBB, and its impact on prognosis of AVB is unknown. The present study was aimed at assessing the effect of being on prophylactic therapy with NSBB on 5-day failure and 6-week mortality of patients with cirrhosis admitted with AVB. Included were 142 patients: 49 were receiving prophylactic therapy with NSBB (NSBB group) and 93 were not (control group). There were some differences in the baseline characteristics between the groups: higher proportion of alcoholic etiology and active alcoholism (37% versus 10%), higher platelet count, and lower hematocrit at admission in the control group. However, the severity of AVB and initial treatment were similar. Five-day failure occurred in 20% of patients (14% in NSBB versus 24% in controls, P = 0.27). The adjusted odds ratio for 5-day failure under NSBB was 2.46 (95% confidence interval 0.53-11.37, P = 0.25). Nineteen patients (13%) died, and two had liver transplantation within 6 weeks. The probability of survival at 6 weeks was 96% in the NSBB group and 82% in the control group (P = 0.02). After adjusting by propensity score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, the NSBB adjusted odds ratio for 6-week mortality was 0.38 (95% confidence interval 0.05-2.63, P = 0.32). The estimated association between NSBB with both 5-day failure and 6-week mortality was homogenous across all Model for End-Stage Liver Disease spectrums.

CONCLUSION

Prophylactic NSBB treatment is not a negative prognostic indicator for the short-term survival of patients with cirrhosis admitted with AVB.

Comparison of the Effects of Telbivudine and Entecavir Treatment on Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of this study was to evaluate the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) during telbivudine (LdT) versus entecavir (ETV) treatment in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with underlying comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and cirrhosis.

METHODS

From 2010 to 2012, 116 CHB patients treated with LdT and 578 treated with ETV were compared in this real-practice cohort. The mean changes in eGFR (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD] formula) from baseline to months 6, 12, and 18 were analyzed using a linear mixed model.

RESULTS

In LdT-treated patients, the mean eGFR increased by 7.6% at month 18 compared with the eGFR at baseline (MDRD formula in mL/min/1.73 m(2)). However, in ETV-treated patients, the mean eGFR decreased by 4.1% at month 18 compared with the eGFR at baseline. In the LdT-treated patients with DM, hypertension, cirrhosis or low eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the mean eGFR showed a steady improvement, whereas the mean eGFR was reduced in the same subgroups of ETV-treated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The eGFR gradually increased over time during LdT treatment, especially in patients with mild abnormal eGFR at baseline, and in those with DM, hypertension, and cirrhosis, whereas a reduction in eGFR was seen with ETV treatment.

Standard assessments of frailty are validated predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

The risk of morbidity and mortality for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis is high and incompletely captured by conventional indices. We sought to evaluate the predictive role of frailty in an observational cohort study of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis between 2010 and 2013. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included discharge to a rehabilitation hospital, 30-day readmission, and length of stay. Frailty was assessed with three metrics: activities of daily living (ADL), the Braden Scale, and the Morse fall risk score. A predictive model was validated by randomly dividing the population into training and validation cohorts: 734 patients were admitted 1358 times in the study period. The overall 90-day mortality was 18.3%. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.6%, and the rate of discharge to a rehabilitation facility was 14.3%. Adjusting for sex, age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, sodium, and Charlson index, the odds ratio for the effect of an ADL score of less than 12 of 15 on mortality is 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.20). A predictive model for 90-day mortality including ADL and Braden Scale yielded C statistics of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.83) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Discharge to a rehabilitation hospital is predicted by both the ADL (<12) and Braden Scale (<16), with respective adjusted odds ratios of 3.78 (95% CI 1.97-7.29) and 6.23 (95% CI 2.53-15.4). Length of stay was associated with the Braden Scale (<16) (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.91). No frailty measure was associated with 30-day readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Readily available, standardized measures of frailty predict 90-day mortality, length of stay, and rehabilitation needs for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

Customization of a Severity of Illness Score Using Local Electronic Medical Record Data

PURPOSE

Severity of illness (SOI) scores are traditionally based on archival data collected from a wide range of clinical settings. Mortality prediction using SOI scores tends to underperform when applied to contemporary cases or those that differ from the case-mix of the original derivation cohorts. We investigated the use of local clinical data captured from hospital electronic medical records (EMRs) to improve the predictive performance of traditional severity of illness scoring.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database, which contains clinical data from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, Massachusetts. A total of 17 490 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions with complete data were included, from 4 different service types: medical ICU, surgical ICU, coronary care unit, and cardiac surgery recovery unit. We developed customized SOI scores trained on data from each service type, using the clinical variables employed in the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS). In-hospital, 30-day, and 2-year mortality predictions were compared with those obtained from using the original SAPS using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC) as well as the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Test performance in different cohorts stratified by severity of organ injury was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Most customized scores (30 of 39) significantly outperformed SAPS with respect to both AUROC and AUPRC. Enhancements over SAPS were greatest for patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery and for prediction of 2-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Custom models based on ICU-specific data provided better mortality prediction than traditional SAPS scoring using the same predictor variables. Our local data approach demonstrates the value of electronic data capture in the ICU, of secondary uses of EMR data, and of local customization of SOI scoring.

Clearing the Confusion over Hepatic Encephalopathy After TIPS Creation: Incidence, Prognostic Factors, and Clinical Outcomes

PURPOSE

To assess the incidence, prognostic factors, and clinical outcomes of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, 191 patients (m:f = 114:77, median age 54 years, median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease or MELD score 14) who underwent TIPS creation between 1999 and 2013 were studied. Medical record review was used to identify demographic characteristics, liver disease, procedure, and outcome data. Post-TIPS HE within 30 days was defined by new mental status changes and was graded according to the West Haven classification system. The influence of data parameters on HE occurrence and 90-day mortality was assessed using binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

TIPS was successfully created with hemodynamic success in 99 % of cases. Median final PSG was 7 mmHg. HE incidence within 30 days was 42 % (81/191; 22 % de novo, 12 % stable, and 8 % worsening). Degrees of HE included grade 1 (46 %), grade 2 (29 %), grade 3 (18 %), and grade 4 (7 %). Medical therapy typically addressed HE, and shunt reduction was necessary in only three cases. MELD score (P = 0.020) and age (P = 0.009) were significantly associated with HE development on multivariate analysis. Occurrence of de novo HE post-TIPS did not associate with 90-day mortality (P = 0.400), in contrast to worsening HE (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of post-TIPS HE is non-trivial, but symptoms are typically mild and medically managed. HE rates are higher in older patients and those with worse liver function and should be contemplated when counseling on expected TIPS outcomes and post-procedure course.

Different scoring systems in predicting survival in Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an established minimal-invasive procedure to treat complications of portal hypertension, and several scoring systems have been used to help choose suitable patients. However, its accuracy remains controversial.

AIM

To compare the performance of the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification system, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, Emory score, Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score, and serum bilirubin and platelet count (SB/PLT model) in predicting survival in Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing TIPS.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical data of patients undergoing TIPS in our department were retrospectively analyzed to compare the five scoring systems on the basis of survival after TIPS.

RESULTS

A cohort of 159 patients was analyzed. The survival curves showed a statistical significance between classification B and C of CTP (χ=9.451, P=0.002), between MELD less than 10 and MELD at least 10 (χ=10.099, P=0.001), and between low-risk and moderate-risk groups of the Emory score (χ=4.656, P=0.031), indicating a better discriminatory ability. By ROC curves and a logistic regression model, the MELD score and the CTP system had better power to predict 3-, 12-, and 24-month survival. The MELD score and the CTP classification system had smaller values of -2 Ln(L), Akaike Information criterion, and Schwarz-Bayesian criterion, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score and the CTP classification system provide better prognostic stratification for a cohort of Chinese patients with advanced cirrhosis undergoing TIPS. However, the MELD score is not significantly superior to the CTP system.

Clinical application of elevated platelet-activating factor acetylhydrolase in patients with hepatitis B

Background

The aim of this study was to investigate the variation of platelet-activating factor acetylhydrolase (PAF-AH) in patients with various stages of hepatitis B infection and evaluate the association between PAF-AH activity and chronic severe hepatitis B (CSHB) and mortality in patients with hepatitis B.

Methods

Serum PAF-AH activity was measured in 216 patients with hepatitis B and in 152 healthy controls using an automatic biochemical analysis system. Spearman correlation was used to investigate the correlation between PAF-AH activity and other biochemical indicators. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate the ability of PAF-AH activity to predict CSHB and mortality in patients with hepatitis B.

Results

The PAF-AH activities in patients with CSHB (1320 ± 481 U/L) were significantly higher than those in healthy controls and in other hepatitis B groups (all P < 0.01). In patients with hepatitis B, PAF-AH activity correlated with total bilirubin (r = 0.633), total bile acid (r = 0.559), aspartate aminotransferase (r = 0.332), apolipoprotein B (r = 0.348), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (r = −0.493), and apolipoprotein AI (r = −0.530). The areas under the ROC curves for the ability of PAF-AH activity to predict CSHB and mortality in patients with hepatitis B were 0.881 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.824–0.937, P < 0.001) and 0.757 (95% CI: 0.677–0.837, P < 0.001), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed PAF-AH activity to be an independent factor predicting CSHB with an odds ratio of 1.003 (95% CI: 1.002–1.005, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Elevated PAF-AH in patients with hepatitis B was significantly associated with liver damage. Thus, serum PAF-AH could be used as a novel indicator for predicting CSHB and mortality in patients with hepatitis B. Further, PAF-AH activity was an independent factor predicting CSHB.

Serum prealbumin combined with Child-Pugh classification and MELD score for evaluation of liver function in patients with liver cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the clinical value of serum prealbumin (PA) in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS: Three hundred and fifty-one patients diagnosed with cirrhosis at our hospital were retrospectively analyzed and followed for 1 year. Each patient's Child-Pugh classification and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were calculated. Child-Pugh classification and MELD score were compared with serum PA combined with Child-Pugh classification and MELD score in evaluating liver function. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate survival at 1 year in patients with liver cirrhosis.

RESULTS: The patients were divided into three groups according to Child-Pugh classification: 111 patients in Child A group, 62 in Child B, and 178 in Child C. In the control group, Child A, Child B and Child C groups, serum PA levels were 261.5 ± 68.7, 152.6 ± 62.7, 70.7 ± 36.9 and 36.2 ± 13.1 mg/L, respectively, which had statistical differences among the four groups (P < 0.05 for all). Of 31 postoperative patients in the Child A group, the mean preoperative serum PA in 24 patients without peritoneal dropsy was 194.0 mg/L ± 56.1 mg/L, and the value in 7 patients with peritoneal dropsy was 123.1 mg/L ±35.4 mg/L (P < 0.05). MELD scores were calculated in 240 patients in the Child B and Child C groups. Compared with MELD score alone, serum PA combined with MELD score was better in predicting survival at 1 year (χ₂²-χ₁² = 8.229 > 3.84, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Serum PA combined with Child-Pugh classification can predict peritoneal dropsy more efficiently. Serum PA combined with MELD score can predict survival results at 1 year more efficiently in patients with Child B and Child C diseases.

Nonspecific changes in clinical laboratory indicators in unselected terminally ill patients and a model to predict survival time based on a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The clinical prediction of survival is among the most challenging tasks because it refers to the process whereby the medical team assimilates clinical data using subjective methods. The purpose of this prospective observational study was to develop a model for evaluating survival time using objective laboratory parameters.

METHODS

Albumin (ALB), creatinine (CRE), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the neutrophilic leukocyte count (NEU) were measured using automated analysers. A total of 177 subjects with any one positive item of 4 items were included in the study. Age on the observation date and date of death were recorded.

RESULTS

ALB, CRE, CRP and the NEU were all significant predictors of survival time (p < 0.05). The median survival time of patients with anyone of the 4 items positive would be over 1 year; if any 2 items were positive, the median survival time was approximately 1 year; if any 3 items were positive, the median survival time was approximately 4 months and if 4 items were positive, the median survival time was approximately 20 days.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that a model using ALB, CRE, CRP and the NEU is potentially useful in the objective evaluation of survival time in terminally ill patients.

Therapy for alcoholic liver disease

Alcoholism results in about 2.5 million deaths annually worldwide, representing 4% of all mortality. Although alcoholism is associated with more than 60 diseases, most mortality from alcoholism results from alcoholic liver disease (ALD). ALD includes alcoholic steatosis, alcoholic hepatitis, and alcoholic cirrhosis, in order of increasing severity. Important scoring systems of ALD severity include: Child-Pugh, a semi-quantitative scoring system useful to roughly characterize clinical severity; model for end-stage liver disease, a quantitative, objective scoring system used for prognostication and prioritization for liver transplantation; and discriminant function, used to determine whether to administer corticosteroids for alcoholic hepatitis. Abstinence is the cornerstone of ALD therapy. Psychotherapies, including twelve-step facilitation therapy, cognitive-behavioral therapy, and motivational enhancement therapy, help support abstinence. Disulfiram decreases alcohol consumption by causing unpleasant sensations after drinking alcohol from accumulation of acetaldehyde in serum, but disulfiram can be hepatotoxic. Adjunctive pharmacotherapies to reduce alcohol consumption include naltrexone, acamprosate, and baclofen. Nutritional therapy helps reverse muscle wasting, weight loss, vitamin deficiencies, and trace element deficiencies associated with ALD. Although reduced protein intake was previously recommended for advanced ALD to prevent hepatic encephalopathy, a diet containing 1.2-1.5 g of protein/kg per day is currently recommended to prevent muscle wasting. Corticosteroids are first-line therapy for severe alcoholic hepatitis (discriminant function ≥ 32), but proof of their efficacy in decreasing mortality remains elusive. Pentoxifylline is an alternative therapy. Complications of advanced ALD include ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, esophageal variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatopulmonary syndrome, and portopulmonary hypertension. Alcoholic cirrhotics have increased risk of developing hepatomas. Liver transplantation is the ultimate therapy for severe ALD, but generally requires 6 mo of proven abstinence for eligibility. Alcoholic cirrhotics who maintain abstinence generally have a relatively favorable prognosis after liver transplantation.

The presence of hepatitis B core antibody is associated with more advanced liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is more severe in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections and alcohol-induced liver injury. Whether the same is true for alcoholic patients with cirrhosis who have recovered from previous HBV infections remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVES

To document the extent of liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis who test negative for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and test positive for antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc).

METHODS

Two hundred fifty-four alcoholic patients with cirrhosis were divided into anti-HBc-positive (N = 171) and anti-HBc-negative (N = 83) cohorts. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical features were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic scores and the prevalence of patients at high risk for short-term mortality were calculated. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with an increased risk for short-term mortality.

RESULTS

Jaundice was more common in the anti-HBc-positive cohort (32.2% vs. 18.1%, p = 0.02). This cohort also had higher serum bilirubin (70.9 vs. 50.4 μM/L, p = 0.03), prothrombin times (15.6 vs. 14.4 s, p = 0.01), MELD scores (8.5 vs. 4.6, p = 0.01), i-MELD scores (28.6 vs. 24.7, p = 0.03), MDF scores (14.2 vs. 6.8, p = 0.02) and ABIC scores (7.2 vs. 6.6, p = 0.01). In addition, anti-HBC-positive patients were more often at high risk for short-term mortality (40.4% vs. 26.5%, p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis identified anti-HBc-positive status (OR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.10-3.36) and alcohol intake ≥150 g/day (OR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.10-3.66) as independent risk factors for high risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The anti-HBc-positive state is associated with more advanced liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis. A prospective study including HBV-DNA testing and liver biopsies should be considered to validate and further elucidate these findings.

The 22/11 risk prediction model: a validated model for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

OBJECTIVES

Clinicians do not have a validated tool for estimating the short-term mortality associated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Accurate prognosis assessment is important for risk stratification and for individualizing therapy. We aimed therefore to develop and validate a model for the prediction of 30-day mortality in SBP patients receiving standard medical treatment (antibiotics and if indicated by guidelines, intravenous albumin therapy).

METHODS

We retrospectively identified SBP patients treated at a tertiary care center between 2003 and 2011 (training set). Multivariate regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized for statistical analysis. An external data set of 109 SBP patients was utilized for validation.

RESULTS

Of the 184 patients in the training set, 66% were men with a median age of 55 years, a median MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score of 20, and a 30-day mortality of 27%. Peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×10⁹ cells/l (odds ratio (OR) 2.5; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.2-5.2) and MELD score ≥22 (OR 4.6; 95% CI: 2.3-9.6) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Patients with neither, one, or both variables had 30-day mortality rates of 8%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. The findings in the validation set mirrored the training set.

CONCLUSIONS

In cirrhotic patients with SBP receiving standard therapy, MELD score ≥22 and peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×10⁹ cells/l are validated independent predictors of mortality. The mortality in a patient without either poor prognostic variable is ≤10% and with both variables is ≥50%. Trials aiming to reduce mortality should target patients in the moderate-risk to high-risk groups.