A population-based cohort study of sex and risk of severe outcomes in covid-19

The impact of bias due to exponentiation in the estimation of hazard, risk, and odds ratios: an empirical investigation from 1,495,059 effect sizes from MEDLINE/PubMed abstracts

BACKGROUND

Parameter estimation using regression methods plays a vital role in medical research. Often a non-linear transformation of a regression parameter is preferred for its more intuitive interpretation. Important examples in medical research are odds ratios, risk ratios, and hazard ratios, which are obtained by exponentiating the estimated regression coefficients of the logit link binomial generalized linear model, log link Poisson generalized linear model or Cox proportional hazards model, respectively. A lot of attention has been devoted to studying and removing the bias of the estimators on the scale of the regression, but the bias of the transformed parameters is rarely addressed.

METHODS

Two approaches for reducing the bias due to the exponentiation are reviewed and applied to odds ratios, risk ratios, and hazard ratios reported in the abstracts published in the MEDLINE subset of English-language PubMed records.

RESULTS

We show that correcting for the bias due to the exponentiation may yield substantially different estimates, potentially resulting in a large shrinkage of the reported effect size estimates.

CONCLUSION

Given the wide availability of methods to reduce the bias on the scale of regression, we encourage their routine use to improve estimation. In situations where the consequences of biased estimation are larger at the exponentiated scale than at the scale of regression, as for example in some policy and planning settings, we additionally encourage the removal of the bias due to the exponentiation.

Sex and other predictors of mortality in long-term follow-up of patients with cardiovascular disease and COVID-19: a single-center retrospective study

Male sex is a well-known predictor of short-term prognosis in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Data, however, on long-term outcomes are scarce. We aimed to assess the differences in mortality between sexes and find other important predictors of survival from a long-term perspective. Data from all patients retrieved from a database of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at University Hospital in Krakow, Poland, between February 13, 2020, and May 10, 2021, were analyzed for clinical in-hospital data and after a 42 months follow-up period. Of the 4071 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, 2183 were men (53.6%). Males were on average younger and more likely to have concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, coronary artery disease (including acute and chronic coronary syndrome) compared to women. In terms of laboratory findings, more advanced inflammatory markers and troponin I were predominantly observed in male patients than in female patients. Males were found to have a greater predisposition for relevant cardiovascular comorbidities and were more likely to have died during the 42 months follow-up. Additionally, higher levels of troponin I, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and D-dimer were associated with a greater risk of death. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses revealed a worse 42 months survival for men up to the age of 65 years. Cardiovascular comorbidities, male sex and older age, as well as higher concentrations of markers indicating a thrombotic state and myocardial injury, were associated with poorer long-term prognosis in patients with COVID-19.

Identifying risk factors and predicting long COVID in a Spanish cohort

Many studies have investigated symptoms, comorbidities, demographic factors, and vaccine effects in relation to long COVID (LC-19) across global populations. However, a number of these studies have shortcomings, such as inadequate LC-19 categorisation, lack of sex disaggregation, or a narrow focus on certain risk factors like symptoms or comorbidities alone. We address these gaps by investigating the demographic factors, comorbidities, and symptoms present during the acute phase of primary COVID-19 infection among patients with LC-19 and comparing them to typical non-Long COVID-19 patients. Additionally, we assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on these patients. Drawing on data from the Regional Health System of the Region of Murcia in southeastern Spain, our analysis includes comprehensive information from clinical and hospitalisation records, symptoms, and vaccination details of over 675126 patients across 10 hospitals. We calculated age and sex-adjusted odds ratios (AOR) to identify protective and risk factors for LC-19. Our findings reveal distinct symptomatology, comorbidity patterns, and demographic characteristics among patients with LC-19 versus those with typical non-Long COVID-19. Factors such as age, female sex (AOR = 1.39, adjusted p < 0.001), and symptoms like chest pain (AOR > 1.55, adjusted p < 0.001) or hyposmia (AOR > 1.5, adjusted p < 0.001) significantly increase the risk of developing LC-19. However, vaccination demonstrates a strong protective effect, with vaccinated individuals having a markedly lower risk (AOR = 0.10, adjusted p < 0.001), highlighting the importance of vaccination in reducing LC-19 susceptibility. Interestingly, symptoms and comorbidities show no significant differences when disaggregated by type of LC-19 patient. Vaccination before infection is the most important factor and notably decreases the likelihood of long COVID. Particularly, mRNA vaccines offer more protection against developing LC-19 than viral vector-based vaccines (AOR = 0.48). Additionally, we have developed a model to predict LC-19 that incorporates all studied risk factors, achieving a balanced accuracy of 73% and ROC-AUC of 0.80. This model is available as a free online LC-19 calculator, accessible at ( LC-19 Calculator ).

Lower Plasma IL-32 Levels Linked to Better Survival in Sepsis

Background/Objectives: Interleukin-32 (IL-32) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine primarily produced by immune cells and involved in bacterial and viral infections. This study investigates whether plasma IL-32 is associated with sepsis severity and clinical outcomes. Methods: Plasma IL-32 levels were measured in 186 patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sepsis, or septic shock, as well as in 40 controls. The relationship between IL-32 levels and SARS-CoV-2 or bacterial infections, alongside underlying etiological conditions, was assessed. Results: Patients with liver cirrhosis exhibited elevated plasma IL-32 levels. After excluding these patients, IL-32 levels were lower in SIRS/sepsis patients compared to the controls. No significant differences in IL-32 levels were observed among SIRS, sepsis, and septic shock patients. Additionally, underlying conditions such as pancreatitis and cholangitis did not influence IL-32 levels. Patients with bloodstream bacterial infections, SARS-CoV-2 infections, or no documented infection had comparable IL-32 levels. Notably, higher IL-32 levels were associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: These findings suggest that a reduction in plasma IL-32 levels may be protective in SIRS/sepsis patients, as elevated levels are linked to poor survival outcomes.

Variability of COVID-19 mortality in Honduras: influence of sociodemographic factors

BACKGROUND

In Central America, Honduras experienced a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections between March 11, 2020, and January 26, 2022. Although limited research has been conducted on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations in Central American countries, this study seeks to contribute to the existing body of knowledge in the region. The objective of this study was to investigate the variability of COVID-19 mortality in Honduras and the impact of sociodemographic factors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional and ecological study, using data from cases collected by the National Risk Management System (SINAGER) and recorded by the Demographic Observatory of the National Autonomous University of Honduras (ODU) between March 11, 2020, and January 26, 2022. Sociodemographic variables were obtained from the 2013 XVII Population and VI Housing Census by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Age-adjusted case and COVID-19 mortality rates by sex were calculated. To explain the potential causes of variability, multilevel logistic regression models were constructed, considering individual and contextual variables.

RESULTS

A total of 513,416 COVID-19 cases were included, of which 98 % (503,176) survived and 2 % (10,240) died. The results showed differences in COVID-19 mortality rates between municipalities and departments. The multilevel model revealed that age (OR: 1.0737; 95 % CI: [1.0726; 1.0749]) and sex (OR: 0.7434; 95 % CI: [0.7027; 0.7841]) were significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality, with men being more likely to die. Among departments, the significant contextual factors were the illiteracy rate and the percentage of the rural population, both of which were associated with higher COVID-19 mortality (OR: 1.0850; 95 % CI: [1.0511; 1.1189] and OR: 1.0234; 95 % CI: [1.0146; 1.0323]), while the percentage of the active population (working age people) was associated with a decrease in COVID-19 mortality (OR: 0.9768; 95 % CI: [0.9591; 0.9944]). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) showed a reduction in variability attributable to the variation between departments, with a final ICC of 0.68 % .

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in COVID-19 mortality were found between the different departments, partly explained by sociodemographic factors. The results of this study show that, in addition to individual characteristics, population-level socioeconomic and educational factors influence COVID-19 mortality. Multilevel analysis is highly useful for providing evidence to improve approaches in future pandemics.

Predictive Factors for COVID-19 Severity in Patients with Axial Spondyloarthritis: Real-World Data from the Romanian Registry of Rheumatic Diseases

Background and Objectives: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) posed unique challenges worldwide, underscoring important gaps in healthcare preparedness for patients receiving immunosuppressive therapies, such as the individuals with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA), a subgroup of spondyloarthritis (SpA) characterized by chronic inflammation and immune dysregulation. While global registry data exist for SpA, specific data on axSpA alone remain scarce, especially in Central and Eastern European populations. This study aims to identify predictive factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes and provide a descriptive analysis of axSpA patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), using real-world data from the Romanian Registry of Rheumatic Diseases (RRBR). Materials and Methods: This is a three-year retrospective observational cohort study that included 5.786 axSpA patients from the RRBR, of whom 183 (3.16%) were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data were analyzed using R V4.4.1 and performing univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression to estimate associations using odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and p-values. A backward selection algorithm was applied to create the final predictive model, accounting for multicollinearity through variance inflation factors (VIFs). Results: The mean age of patients was 48.19 ± 12.26 years, with male predominance (64.5%). Serious COVID-19 (encompassing moderate to critical cases) occurred in 46 cases, with age ≥ 52.5 years (OR 2.64, 95% CI: 1.28-5.48, p = 0.009) and arterial hypertension (OR 2.57, 95% CI: 1.29-5.16, p = 0.007) identified as significant predictors. Individuals with advanced education levels had nearly three times lower odds of experiencing serious COVID-19 (OR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.18-0.76, p = 0.008). Furthermore, our findings confirm the lack of association between HLA-B27 and COVID-19 severity (p = 0.194), contributing to the ongoing discussion regarding its potential immunological role. Moreover, irrespective of the biological therapy administered, the likelihood of experiencing serious SARS-CoV-2 outcomes was not statistically significant (p = 0.882). In the final predictive model, only older age and higher education were deemed as predictive factors. Conclusions: This study highlights key predictors of COVID-19 severity in axSpA patients and emphasizes the protective role of higher education, an underexplored determinant of health outcomes in inflammatory diseases. The lessons learned during these last years can shape a more informed and compassionate healthcare system.

Plasma Lipopolysaccharide-Binding Protein (LBP) Is Induced in Critically Ill Females with Gram-Negative Infections-Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Men are more susceptible to sepsis than women, but the underlying pathways have not been fully clarified. Lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) is an acute-phase protein that is highly elevated in sepsis. Experimental evidence shows that LBP increases to a much greater extent in male than in female mice following exposure to lipopolysaccharide. However, gender-specific studies of circulating LBP levels in sepsis patients are scarce.

METHODS

In the plasma of 189 patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sepsis, and septic shock, LBP levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

RESULTS

Patients with liver cirrhosis had reduced circulating LBP levels, regardless of gender. Further analysis within the non-cirrhotic patients showed no significant differences in LBP levels between sexes in patients with SIRS, sepsis, and septic shock. Ventilation, dialysis, and vasopressor therapy had no effect on LBP levels in either sex. A positive correlation between LBP and C-reactive protein was observed in the total cohort, males, and females. Infection with Gram-negative or Gram-positive bacteria had no effect on plasma LBP levels in males. However, female patients with Gram-negative infection had increased plasma LBP levels compared to females with negative and Gram-positive blood cultures, and 70 µg/mL LBP discriminates Gram-negative infections in females with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 74%. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 did not change plasma LBP levels in either men or women. Female patients who did not survive had lower plasma LBP levels compared to female survivors and male non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

This investigation highlights the influence of sex on plasma LBP levels in SIRS/sepsis patients, suggesting that LBP could be a sex-specific biomarker in critically ill patients.

Healthcare workers safety: a cohort study using healthcare utilisation databases on vaccination and vaccine timeliness impact against SARS-CoV-2 infection

Healthcare Workers (HCWs) are at ongoing risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, potentially contributing to its transmission. This study assessed full vaccination and vaccination timeliness impact on SARS-CoV-2 infections among HCWs in Italy's Marche Region, using Healthcare Utilization Databases. We evaluated vaccination coverage and its associated factors. The cohort comprised 21,118 HCWs aged 18-70 from the region's five Local Health Authorities (LHA), enrolled between February 2020 - May 2021. Factors associated with full vaccination were assessed using multiple logistic regression. The impact of vaccination status, time to vaccination, occupational role, age, gender, and health status on infection risk was analysed with a multiple Cox regression model, adjusting for vaccination coverage velocity, swabbing probability, and monthly intensive care unit admissions rate in each LHA. Of the cohort, 81.2% were fully vaccinated. Factors associated with full vaccination included age, role, LHA, prior infection, and health status. Vaccination reduced infection risk by 77% (95% CI: 70-82). Infection risk was higher among healthcare assistants, nurses/physiotherapists/technicians compared to physicians, among male HCWs, and it decreased as vaccination timeliness increased. Vaccination timeliness is crucial for reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among HCWs, regardless of their characteristics. This underscores the importance of efficiently organizing vaccination administration across different territories and for all HCW categories.

Sex differences in pneumonia risk during COVID-19 in Mexico

This study aimed to evaluate the pneumonia risk based on the patient's sex during the COVID-19 pandemic and the early months of the endemic phase of the disease in Mexico. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a dataset resulting from the epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 (February 2020 to August 2023). Data from 1.6 million adults with laboratory-positive disease, were analyzed. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), computed through generalized linear regression models, were used. The overall risk of pneumonia was 9.3% (95% CI 9.2-9.4%), with sex-specific estimates of 7.0% (95% CI 6.9-7.1%) for women and 12.0% (95% CI 11.9-12.1%) for men. This disparity was consistently observed throughout all phases of the pandemic, including the endemic phase of the disease. After adjusting for age, predominant viral genotype at illness onset and preexisting medical conditions, men had a 3.3% higher risk of severe manifestations when compared to women (RR = 1.033, 95% CI 1.032-1.034). Our research highlights the potential role of patients' sex as a factor influencing pneumonia risk during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. These findings may provide useful considerations for healthcare planning and policy development focused on addressing the impact of the disease on vulnerable populations.

Cholesterol and Cholesterol-Lowering Medications in COVID-19-An Unresolved Matter

Infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cause coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a disease with very heterogeneous symptoms. Dyslipidaemia is prevalent in at least 20% of Europeans, and dyslipidaemia before SARS-CoV-2 infection increases the risk for severe COVID-19 and mortality by 139%. Many reports described reduced serum cholesterol levels in virus-infected patients, in particular in those with severe disease. The liver is the major organ for lipid homeostasis and hepatic dysfunction appears to occur in one in five patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Thus, SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 disease severity and liver injury may be related to impaired cholesterol homeostasis. These observations prompted efforts to assess the therapeutic opportunities of cholesterol-lowering medications to reduce COVID-19 severity. The majority of studies implicate statins to have beneficial effects on disease severity and outcome in COVID-19. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) antibodies have also shown potential to protect against COVID-19. This review describes the relationship between systemic cholesterol levels, liver injury and COVID-19 disease severity. The potential effects of statins and PCSK9 in COVID-19 are summarised. Finally, the relationship between cholesterol and lung function, the first organ to be affected by SARS-CoV-2, is described.

Reduced Plasma Bone Morphogenetic Protein 6 Levels in Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients

Infectious diseases are associated with low iron levels and the induction of hepcidin, the primary protein regulating cellular iron export. Bone morphogenetic protein 6 (BMP6), a key regulator of hepcidin expression, has not yet been analyzed in the plasma of patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or sepsis. An analysis of 38 SIRS, 39 sepsis, and 78 septic shock patients revealed similar levels of BMP6 in sepsis and septic shock, which were lower compared to patients with SIRS and healthy controls. Plasma BMP6 levels did not correlate with procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels in patients with SIRS or sepsis/septic shock. Neither bacterial nor SARS-CoV-2 infections affected plasma BMP6 levels. There was no difference in BMP6 levels between ventilated and non-ventilated patients, or between patients with and without dialysis. Vasopressor therapy did not alter BMP6 levels. Survivors had plasma BMP6 levels similar to non-survivors. Due to the high variability of plasma BMP6 levels, these analyses have limited clinical relevance. Iron, ferritin, and transferrin levels were known in at least 50% of patients but did not correlate with plasma BMP6 levels. In conclusion, this study showed normal BMP6 plasma levels in SIRS, which are reduced in patients with sepsis and septic shock. This suggests that the commonly observed increase in hepcidin levels and the decline in iron levels in SIRS, sepsis, and septic shock are not due to higher BMP6.

Understanding COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance among Healthcare Workers in Indonesia: Lessons from Multi-Site Survey

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented challenge to public health as well as an extraordinary burden on health systems worldwide. COVID-19 vaccines were attributed as a key tool to control the pandemic, with healthcare workers (HCWs) as a priority group to receive the vaccine. Healthcare workers are considered one of the most trusted sources of information on vaccines and vaccination. This study was conducted to evaluate the acceptability of the COVID-19 vaccine among HCWs in four different provinces of Indonesia. An anonymous cross-sectional study was conducted online among HCWs between December 2020 and February 2021. Out of 2732 participants, 80.39% stated that they would accept the COVID-19 vaccine, while 19.61% were hesitant to receive the vaccine. Concerns about the safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines and potential side-effects after vaccination were the main reasons among the participants to refuse the vaccine. Male gender, single status, higher education level, and higher risk perception increased the acceptability of the COVID-19 vaccine. Other motivators of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance include a high level of trust in the government and increased confidence in vaccine safety and efficacy studies. Dissemination of information in a timely manner as well as training programs for HCWs are crucial to increasing confidence in the COVID-19 vaccination program.

Cholesterol and COVID-19-therapeutic opportunities at the host/virus interface during cell entry

The rapid development of vaccines to combat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has been critical to reduce the severity of COVID-19. However, the continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 subtypes highlights the need to develop additional approaches that oppose viral infections. Targeting host factors that support virus entry, replication, and propagation provide opportunities to lower SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and improve COVID-19 outcome. This includes cellular cholesterol, which is critical for viral spike proteins to capture the host machinery for SARS-CoV-2 cell entry. Once endocytosed, exit of SARS-CoV-2 from the late endosomal/lysosomal compartment occurs in a cholesterol-sensitive manner. In addition, effective release of new viral particles also requires cholesterol. Hence, cholesterol-lowering statins, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 antibodies, and ezetimibe have revealed potential to protect against COVID-19. In addition, pharmacological inhibition of cholesterol exiting late endosomes/lysosomes identified drug candidates, including antifungals, to block SARS-CoV-2 infection. This review describes the multiple roles of cholesterol at the cell surface and endolysosomes for SARS-CoV-2 entry and the potential of drugs targeting cholesterol homeostasis to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and COVID-19 disease severity.

Multimorbidity and frailty are associated with poorer SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: systematic review of population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Estimating the risks and impacts of COVID-19 for different health groups at the population level is essential for orienting public health measures. Adopting a population-based approach, we conducted a systematic review to explore: (1) the etiological role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related short-term outcomes; and (2) the prognostic role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing short- and long-term outcomes. This review presents the state of the evidence in the early years of the pandemic. It was conducted within the European Union Horizon 2020 program (No: 101018317); Prospero registration: CRD42021249444.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, World Health Organisation COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease, and PsycINFO were searched between January 2020 and 7 April 2021 for multimorbidity and 1 February 2022 for frailty. Quantitative peer-reviewed studies published in English with population-representative samples and validated multimorbidity and frailty tools were considered.

RESULTS

Overall, 9,701 records were screened by title/abstract and 267 with full text. Finally, 14 studies were retained for multimorbidity (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 13) and 5 for frailty (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 4). Only short-term outcomes, mainly mortality, were identified. An elevated likelihood of poorer outcomes was associated with an increasing number of diseases, a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, different disease combinations, and an increasing frailty level.

DISCUSSION

Future studies, which include the effects of recent virus variants, repeated exposure and vaccination, will be useful for comparing the possible evolution of the associations observed in the earlier waves.

Exploring the Relationship between Plasma Adiponectin, Gender, and Underlying Diseases in Severe Illness

Adiponectin is low in obesity, plays a crucial role in metabolic health, and, moreover, possesses immunoregulatory properties. However, studies examining its levels in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or sepsis have yielded conflicting results. While females typically have higher systemic adiponectin levels than males, research on sex-specific associations in this context is limited. In this study of 156 SIRS/sepsis patients, including those with liver cirrhosis, we aimed to explore the relationship between plasma adiponectin, body mass index (BMI), gender, disease severity, and underlying etiological conditions. Our findings revealed that patients with liver cirrhosis, who are susceptible to infections, exhibited elevated circulating adiponectin levels, irrespective of sex. When excluding cirrhosis patients, plasma adiponectin levels were similar between male SIRS/sepsis patients and controls but lower in female patients compared to female controls. Plasma adiponectin was inversely related to BMI in female but not male patients. Further analysis within the non-cirrhosis subgroup demonstrated no significant differences in adiponectin levels between sexes among SIRS, sepsis, and septic shock patients. Ventilation, dialysis, and vasopressor therapy had no discernible impact on adiponectin levels in either sex. A negative correlation between adiponectin and C-reactive protein (CRP) existed in males only. Notably, patients with pancreatitis showed the lowest plasma adiponectin concentrations, although sex-specific differences were not significant. Infection with Gram-negative or Gram-positive bacteria had minimal effects on plasma adiponectin levels in both sexes. However, infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 led to decreased adiponectin levels in females exclusively. Multivariate analysis considering all factors affecting plasma adiponectin levels in males or females identified BMI in females and CRP levels in males to predict plasma adiponectin levels in SIRS/sepsis patients. Additionally, our study observed a trend where the 25 patients who did not survive had higher plasma adiponectin levels, particularly among males. In summary, our investigation highlights the influence of underlying diseases and sex on plasma adiponectin levels in SIRS/sepsis patients, shedding light on potential implications for disease management and prognosis.

Plasma Insulin-like Growth Factor-Binding Protein-2 of Critically Ill Patients Is Related to Disease Severity and Survival

Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein (IGFBP)-2 regulates the bioactivity of the anabolic hormone's insulin-like growth factors, which are decreased in sepsis and contribute to the catabolic status of severely ill patients. The circulating levels of IGFBP-2 in critical illness have been rarely studied; therefore, we evaluated IGFBP-2 plasma levels in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or sepsis as well as healthy controls. Our analysis of 157 SIRS/sepsis patients revealed higher plasma IGFBP-2 levels compared to 22 healthy controls. Plasma IGFBP-2 levels correlated positively with procalcitonin but not with C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, or the leukocyte count. Septic shock patients exhibited higher IGFBP-2 levels than those with SIRS. Bacterial or SARS-CoV-2 infection did not influence plasma IGFBP-2 levels. There was no difference in the IGFBP-2 levels between ventilated and non-ventilated SIRS/sepsis patients, and vasopressor therapy did not alter these levels. Dialysis patients had elevated plasma IGFBP-2 levels. Survivors had lower plasma IGFBP-2 levels than non-survivors. In conclusion, our study indicates that plasma IGFBP-2 levels are associated with disease severity, renal failure, and mortality in SIRS/sepsis patients.

Post-Covid condition and clinic characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a 2-year follow-up to Brazilian cases

Until January 2023, Brazil recorded 37 million COVID-19 cases despite the decrease in mortality due to mass vaccination efforts against COVID-19. The infection continues to challenge researchers and health professionals with the persistent symptoms and onset manifestations after the acute phase of the disease, namely Post-Covid Condition (PCC). Being one of the countries with the highest infection rate, Brazil must prepare for a growing number of patients with chronic health consequences of COVID-19. Longitudinal studies that follow patients over extended periods are crucial in understanding the long-term impacts of COVID-19, including potential health consequences and the effects on quality of life. We describe the clinical profile of a cohort of COVID-19 patients infected during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil and a follow-up after two years to investigate the health impacts of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil featured extensive drug misuse, notably the ineffective COVID kit comprised of ivermectin, antimalarials and azithromycin, and elevated in-hospital mortality. In the second phase of the study, Post-Covid Condition was reported by symptomatic COVID-19 subjects across different severity levels two years after infection. Long haulers are more likely to be women, previously hospitalized, and reported a range of symptoms from muscle pain to cognitive deficit. Our longitudinal study is essential to inform public health authorities to develop strategies and policies to control the spread of the virus and mitigate its impacts on society.

Symptoms, Treatment, and Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients Coinfected with Clostridioides difficile: Single-Center Study from NE Romania during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought new challenges across medical disciplines, particularly in infectious disease medicine. In Romania, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection increased dramatically since March 2020 until March 2022. Antibiotic administration for pulmonary superinfections in COVID-19 intensified and, consequently, increased rates of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) were hypothesized. We conducted a single-center, retrospective, observational study on patients from North-Eastern Romania to assess clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 and Clostridioides difficile (CD) coinfection, and to identify risk factors for CDI in COVID-19 patients. The study enrolled eighty-six CDI and COVID-19 coinfected patients admitted during March 2020-February 2021 (mean age 59.14 years, 53.49% men, 67.44% urban residents) and a group of eighty-six COVID-19 patients. On admission, symptoms were more severe in mono-infected patients, while coinfected patients associated a more intense acute inflammatory syndrome. The main risk factors for severe COVID-19 were smoking, diabetes mellitus, and antibiotic administration. Third generation cephalosporins (55%) and carbapenems (24%) were the main antibiotics used, and carbapenems were significantly associated with severe COVID-19 in patients coinfected with CD during hospitalization. Coinfection resulted in longer hospitalization and poorer outcomes. The extensive use of antibiotics in COVID-19, particularly carbapenems, contributed substantially to CD coinfection.

Development and validation of a prediction model based on comorbidities to estimate the risk of in-hospital death in patients with COVID-19

Background

Most existing prognostic models of COVID-19 require imaging manifestations and laboratory results as predictors, which are only available in the post-hospitalization period. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model to assess the in-hospital death risk in COVID-19 patients using routinely available predictors at hospital admission.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with COVID-19 using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database in 2020. Patients hospitalized in Eastern United States (Florida, Michigan, Kentucky, and Maryland) were included in the training set, and those hospitalized in Western United States (Nevada) were included in the validation set. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated to assess the model's performance.

Results

A total of 17 954 in-hospital deaths occurred in the training set (n = 168 137), and 1,352 in-hospital deaths occurred in the validation set (n = 12 577). The final prediction model included 15 variables readily available at hospital admission, including age, sex, and 13 comorbidities. This prediction model showed moderate discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.726 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.722-0.729) and good calibration (Brier score = 0.090, slope = 1, intercept = 0) in the training set; a similar predictive ability was observed in the validation set.

Conclusion

An easy-to-use prognostic model based on predictors readily available at hospital admission was developed and validated for the early identification of COVID-19 patients with a high risk of in-hospital death. This model can be a clinical decision-support tool to triage patients and optimize resource allocation.

Risk Factors of Severe COVID-19: A Review of Host, Viral and Environmental Factors

The clinical course and outcome of COVID-19 are highly variable, ranging from asymptomatic infections to severe disease and death. Understanding the risk factors of severe COVID-19 is relevant both in the clinical setting and at the epidemiological level. Here, we provide an overview of host, viral and environmental factors that have been shown or (in some cases) hypothesized to be associated with severe clinical outcomes. The factors considered in detail include the age and frailty, genetic polymorphisms, biological sex (and pregnancy), co- and superinfections, non-communicable comorbidities, immunological history, microbiota, and lifestyle of the patient; viral genetic variation and infecting dose; socioeconomic factors; and air pollution. For each category, we compile (sometimes conflicting) evidence for the association of the factor with COVID-19 outcomes (including the strength of the effect) and outline possible action mechanisms. We also discuss the complex interactions between the various risk factors.