Predicting shifts in distribution range and niche breadth of plant species in contrasting arid environments under climate change

From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate-Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia

Ephedra intermedia, a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi-arid ecosystems across Central and South Asia. This research sought to predict the present and future distribution of E. intermedia by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model incorporated comprehensive bioclimatic and edaphic variables to predict the species' habitat suitability. The results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting the importance of temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, soil pH, and nitrogen content as key species distribution determinants. The current habitat suitability map revealed core areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan mountain regions. Under future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s, the model projected a significant upward and northward shift in suitable habitats, coupled with a notable contraction in the extent of highly suitable areas, particularly under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The predicted range shifts reflect the species' sensitivity to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This suggests a potential loss of suitable habitats in low-elevation and southern parts of its range. Including edaphic factors in the model provided novel insights, specifically highlighting the critical role of soil properties, such as soil pH and nitrogen content, in shaping the ecological niche of E. intermedia. These findings complement the observed upward and northward shifts in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios, emphasizing the species' reliance on high-altitude refugia as climate conditions change. The results underscore important implications for conservation planning, suggesting that strategies should prioritize the protection of these refugial habitats while also considering measures such as habitat connectivity and assisted migration to support the species' adaptation to shifting environmental conditions.

Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable

Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.

Novel insights into hotspots of insect vectors of GLRaV-3: Dynamics and global distribution

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most prevalent and economically damaging virus in grapevines and is found on nearly all continents, except Antarctica. Ten mealybugs act as vector insects transmitting the GLRaV-3. Understanding the potential distribution range of vector insects under climate change is crucial for preventing and managing vector insects and controlling and delaying the spread of GLRaV-3. This study investigated the potential geographical range of insect vectors of GLRaV-3 worldwide using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under environmental variables. The potential distributions of these insects were projected for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under the three climate change scenarios. The results showed that the potential distribution range of most vector insects is concentrated in Southeastern North America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Australia. Most vector insects contract their potential distribution ranges under climate-change conditions. The stacked model suggested that potential distribution hotspots of vector insects were present in Southeastern North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Southeast Australia. The potential distribution range of hotspots would shrink with climate change. These results provide important information for governmental decision-makers and farmers in developing control and management strategies against vector insects of GLRaV-3. They can also serve as references for studies on other insect vectors.

Climatic niche and range shifts of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) in Europe: An invasive pest displacing native squirrels

BACKGROUND

As an invasive pest from North America, grey squirrels (GSs; Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) are displacing native squirrels in Europe. However, the climatic niche and range dynamics of GSs in Europe remain largely unknown. Through niche and range dynamic models, we investigated climatic niche and range shifts between introduced GSs in Europe and native GSs in North America.

RESULTS

GSs in North America can survive in more variable climatic conditions and have much wider climatic niche breadth than do GSs in Europe. Based on climate, the potential range of GSs in Europe included primarily Britain, Ireland, and Italy, whereas the potential range of GSs in North America included vast regions of western and southern Europe. If GSs in Europe could occupy the same climatic niche space and potential range as GSs in North America, they would occupy an area ca. 2.45 times the size of their current range. The unfilling ranges of GSs in Europe relative to those of GSs in North America were primarily in France, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal.

CONCLUSION

Our observations implied that GSs in Europe have significant invasion potential, and that range projections based on their occurrence records in Europe may underestimate their invasion risk. Given that small niche shifts between GSs in Europe and in North America could lead to large range shifts, niche shifts could be a sensitive indicator in invasion risk assessment. The identified unfilling ranges of the GS in Europe should be prioritized in combating GS invasions in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Unravelling diversity, drivers, and indicators of soil microbiome of Trillium govanianum, an endangered plant species of the Himalaya

In an era of global environmental change, conservation of threatened biodiversity and ecosystem restoration are formidable ecological challenges. The forest understory strata and the belowground soil environment including rhizospheric microbial communities, which are crucial for ecosystem functioning and overall forest biodiversity maintenance, have remained understudied. Here, we investigate the soil microbiome of Trillium govanianum - an endangered Himalayan Forest herb, to unravel the underground diversity, drivers, and potential indicators of the microbial community. We collected rhizospheric and bulk soil samples for microbiome and physicochemical analysis at three sites along an elevation gradient (2500-3300 m) in Kashmir Himalaya. Amplicon sequencing of 16 S rRNA and ITS was used to identify the bacterial and fungal soil microorganisms. We found significant differences in the structure and diversity of microbial community (bacterial and fungal) between the rhizosphere and bulk soil along the altitudinal gradient, and noticeable shifts in the nutrient level in dominant microbial phyla associated with T. govanianum. A significant difference between soil physicochemical parameters and increasing altitude suggests that microbial community structure is determined by altitude and soil type. Similarly, the microbial communities showed a significant (P < 0.05) correlation with soil physicochemical variables along the altitudinal gradient. The moisture content in bacterial and total organic carbon in fungal communities showed the most substantial impact on the physiochemical drivers. We also identify potential bacterial and fungal plant growth promoter indicator species in the soil microbiome of T. govanianum. Overall, our findings provide novel research insights that can be pivotal in designing integrated species recovery programs and long-term restoration plans for T. govanianum, with learnings for biodiversity conservation elsewhere.

Predicting potential distribution and range dynamics of Aquilegia fragrans under climate change: insights from ensemble species distribution modelling

Climate change is one of the primary causes of species redistribution and biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and endemic important plant species. Therefore, it is vital to comprehend "how" and "where" priority medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) might be effectively used to address conservation-related issues under rapid climate change. In the present study, an ensemble modelling approach was used to investigate the present and future distribution patterns of Aquilegia fragrans Benth. under climate change in the entire spectrum of Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. The results of the current study revealed that, under current climatic conditions, the northwest states of India (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and the northern part of Uttarakhand), the eastern and southern parts of Pakistan Himalaya have highly suitable climatic conditions for the growth of A. fragrans. The ensemble model exhibited high forecast accuracy, with temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality as the main climatic variables responsible for the distribution of the A. fragrans in the biodiversity hotspot. Furthermore, the study predicted that future climate change scenarios will diminish habitat suitability for the species by -46.9% under RCP4.5 2050 and -55.0% under RCP4.5 2070. Likewise, under RCP8.5, the habitat suitability will decrease by -51.7% in 2050 and -94.3% in 2070. The current study also revealed that the western Himalayan area will show the most habitat loss. Some currently unsuitable regions, such as the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan, will become more suitable under climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the current approach may provide a robust technique and showcases a model with learnings for predicting cultivation hotspots and developing scientifically sound conservation plans for this endangered medicinal plant in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.

Following the aridity: Historical biogeography and diversification of the Philodromidae spider genus Petrichus in South America

Aridity conditions and expansion of arid biomes in South America are closely linked to the onset of Andean orogeny since at least 30 Mya. Among arid-associated taxa, spiders belonging to the genus Petrichus are found along the Andes mountains and across the diagonal of open formations of the Chaco and Cerrado domains. In this contribution, we asked whether Petrichus originated prior to the central Andean uplift and what historical processes have promoted their diversification. We time-calibrated the phylogenetic tree of Philodromidae and estimated the divergence times of Petrichus. Considering phylogenetic uncertainty, we assessed biogeographical hypotheses of the historical events associated with the diversification of these spiders in South America. Petrichus originated along the Pacific coastal deserts in the Central Andes during the Early Miocene. The species likely dispersed from the western to the eastern side of the Andes coincidently with the central Andean uplift. The diversification of these spiders is coeval with the expansion of open grassland formations during the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene. Multiple dispersal events occurred from the Monte desert to southern South America and eastward to Chaco between ∼ 8 and 2.5 Mya. The Andes might have played a role as a corridor favoring geographical range expansions and colonization of new environments. In addition, we also suggest that Philodromidae might have an Oligocene origin or earlier. Future analyses based on further evidence and larger taxon sampling should be carried out to corroborate our findings.

Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Three Ephedra Herbs in China

Ephedra species are beneficial for environmental protection in desert and grassland ecosystems. They have high ecological, medicinal, and economic value. To strengthen the protection of the sustainable development of Ephedra, we used occurrence records of Ephedra sinica Stapf., Ephedra intermedia Schrenk et C.A. Mey., and Ephedra equisetina Bge., combined with climate, soil, and topographic factors to simulate the suitable habitat of three Ephedra based on ensemble models on the Biomod2 platform. The results of the models were tested using AUC, TSS, and kappa coefficients. The results demonstrated that the ensemble model was able to accurately predict the potential distributions of E. sinica, E. intermedia, and E. equisetina. Eastern and central Inner Mongolia, middle and eastern Gansu, and northeastern Xinjiang were the optimum regions for the growth of E. sinica, E. intermedia, and E. equisetina, respectively. Additionally, several key environmental factors had a significant influence on the suitable habitats of the three Ephedra. The key factors affecting the distribution of E. sinica, E. intermedia, and E. equisetina were annual average precipitation, altitude, and vapor pressure, respectively. In conclusion, the results showed that the suitable ranges of the three Ephedra were mainly in Northwest China and that topography and climate were the primary influencing factors.

Predicting the comprehensive geospatial pattern of two ephedrine-type alkaloids for Ephedra sinica in Inner Mongolia

Ephedra sinica Stapf. is a shrubby plant widely used in traditional Chinese medicine due to its high level of medicinal value, thus, it is in high demand. Ephedrine (E) and pseudoephedrine (PE) are key medicinal components and quality indicators for E. sinica. These two ephedrine-type alkaloids are basic elements that exert the medicinal effect of E. sinica. Recently, indiscriminate destruction and grassland desertification have caused the quantity and quality of these pharmacological plants to degenerate. Predicting potentially suitable habitat for high-quality E. sinica is essential for its future conservation and domestication. In this study, MaxEnt software was utilized to map suitable habitats for E. sinica in Inner Mongolia based on occurrence data and a set of variables related to climate, soil, topography and human impact. The model parametrization was optimized by evaluating alternative combinations of feature classes and values of the regularization multiplier. Second, a geospatial quality model was fitted to relate E and PE contents to the same environmental variables and to predict their spatial patterns across the study area. Outputs from the two models were finally coupled to map areas predicted to have both suitable conditions for E. sinica and high alkaloid content. Our results indicate that E. sinica with high-quality E content was mainly distributed in the Horqin, Ulan Butong and Wulanchabu grasslands. E. sinica with high-quality PE content was primarily found in the Ordos, Wulanchabu and Ulan Butong grasslands. This study provides scientific information for the protection and sustainable utilization of E. sinica. It can also help to control and prevent desertification in Inner Mongolia.

Global niche and range shifts of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a highly virulent amphibian-killing fungus

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is one of the world's most invasive species, and is responsible for chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease that has caused huge losses of global amphibian biodiversity. Few studies have investigated invasive Bd's niche and range relative to those of native Bd. In the present study, we applied niche and range dynamic models to investigate global niche and range dynamics between native and invasive Bd. Invasive Bd occupied wider and different niche positions than did native Bd. Additionally, invasive Bd was observed in hotter, colder, wetter, drier, and more labile climatic conditions. Contrast to most relevant studies presuming Bd's niche remaining stable, we found that invasive Bd rejected niche conservatism hypotheses, suggesting its high lability in niche, and huge invasion potential. Bd's niche non-conservatism may result in range lability, and small niche expansions could induce large increases in range. Niche shifts may therefore be a more sensitive indicator of invasion than are range shifts. Our findings indicate that Bd is a high-risk invasive fungus not only due to its high infection and mortality rates, but also due to its high niche and range lability, which enhance its ability to adapt to novel climatic conditions. Therefore, invasive Bd should be a high-priority focus species in strategizing against biological invasions.

Niche and range dynamics of Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.), a globally cultivated invasive tree

The ecological niche concept has provided insights into various areas in ecology and biogeography. Although there remains much controversy regarding whether species niches are conserved across space and time, many recent studies have suggested that invasive species conserve their climatic niche between native and introduced ranges; however, whether the climatic niche of cultivated invasive species, whose niches are strongly affected by human activities, are conserved between native and introduced ranges remains unclear. Additionally, the range dynamics of invasive species in their native and introduced regions have not been extensively studied. Here, we investigated the niche and range dynamics of Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.), a globally cultivated invasive tree, using ecological niche models and niche dynamic analyses. The most important factors affecting the niche changes between native and introduced Tasmanian blue gum were max temperature of the warmest month and precipitation of the wettest month. The climate niche was not conserved between introduced and native range Tasmanian blue gum; moreover, the niche area of the former was ca. 7.4 times larger than that of the latter, as introduced Tasmanian blue gum could survive in hotter, colder, wetter, and drier climates. In addition, the potential range of introduced Tasmanian blue gum was ca. 32 times larger than that of its native counterpart. Human introduction and cultivation may play a key role in the niche and range expansion of introduced Tasmanian blue gum. Given that small increases in niche area can result in large range expansions, the niche expansion of an invasive species could be used to evaluate invasion risk, which might even be more sensitive than range expansions.