Pastoralists as Optimal Foragers? Reoccupation and Site Selection in the Deserts of Post-Soviet Kazakhstan

Gridded livestock density database and spatial trends for Kazakhstan

Livestock rearing is a major source of livelihood for food and income in dryland Asia. Increasing livestock density (LSKD) affects ecosystem structure and function, amplifies the effects of climate change, and facilitates disease transmission. Significant knowledge and data gaps regarding their density, spatial distribution, and changes over time exist but have not been explored beyond the county level. This is especially true regarding the unavailability of high-resolution gridded livestock data. Hence, we developed a gridded LSKD database of horses and small ruminants (i.e., sheep & goats) at high-resolution (1 km) for Kazakhstan (KZ) from 2000-2019 using vegetation proxies, climatic, socioeconomic, topographic, and proximity forcing variables through a random forest (RF) regression modeling. We found high-density livestock hotspots in the south-central and southeastern regions, whereas medium-density clusters in the northern and northwestern regions of KZ. Interestingly, population density, proximity to settlements, nighttime lights, and temperature contributed to the efficient downscaling of district-level censuses to gridded estimates. This database will benefit stakeholders, the research community, land managers, and policymakers at regional and national levels.

Optimal ranges of social-environmental drivers and their impacts on vegetation dynamics in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is part of the Eurasian Steppes, the world's largest contiguous grassland system. Kazakh grassland systems are largely understudied despite being historically important for agropastoral practices. These grasslands are considered vulnerable to anthropogenic activities and climatic variability. Few studies have examined vegetation dynamics in Central Asia owing to the complex impacts of moisture, climatic and anthropogenic forcings. A comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal changes of vegetation and its driving factors will help elucidate the causes of grassland degradation. Here, we investigated the individual and pairwise interactive influences of various social-environmental system (SES) drivers on greenness dynamics in Kazakhstan. We sought to examine whether there is a relationship between peak season greenness and its drivers - spring drought, preceding winter freeze-thaw cycles, percent snow cover and snow depth - for Kazakhstan during 2000-2016. As hypothesized, snow depth and spring drought accounted for 60 % and 52 % of the variance in the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in Kazakhstan. The freeze-thaw process accounted for 50 % of NDVI variance across the country. In addition, continuous thawing during the winter increased vegetation greenness. We also found that moisture and topographic factors impacted NDVI more significantly than socioeconomic factors. However, the impacts of socioeconomic drivers on vegetation growth were amplified when they interacted with environmental drivers. Terrain slope and soil moisture had the highest q-values or power of determinant, accounting for ~70 % of the variance in NDVI across the country. Socioeconomic drivers, such as crop production (59 %), population density (48 %), and livestock density (26 %), had significant impacts on vegetation dynamics in Kazakhstan. We found that most of the pairwise interactive influences of the drivers exhibited bi-factor enhancement, and the interaction between soil moisture and elevation was the largest (q = 0.92). Our study revealed the optimal ranges and tipping points of SES drivers and quantified the impacts of various driving factors on NDVI. These findings can help us identify the factors causing grassland degradation and provide a scientific basis for ecological protection in semiarid regions.

Effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives on Trade and Its Related LUCC and Ecosystem Services of Central Asian Nations

Economic development and trade activities are some of the main driving forces leading to land use and land cover changes (LUCC) with impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) functions. As the origin of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiated by China, Central Asia nations (CANs) provide a prism to examine the impact of LUCC and ESs changes brought by the BRI. The impacts of LUCC and ecological influences were evaluated. The land use transfer matrix and dynamic index, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Carnegie Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model, and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) model were used to evaluate the impact of export trade from the CANs to China (ETCC) on LUCC and ESs in the CANs before and after the BRI. Results showed that before and after BRI (2001–2020), agricultural land and construction land increased by 59,120 km2 and 7617 km2, respectively, while ecological land decreased by 66,737 km2. The annual growth rate of agricultural land and the annual reduction rate of ecological land after the BRI were higher than that before the BRI, while the annual growth rate of construction slowed down. Among the ecological land, the forestland increased by 5828 km2 continuously, while the grassland increased by 12,719 km2 and then decreased of 13,132 km2. The trends for LUCC spatial variation were similar. The development of ETCC positively affected the changes in agricultural and construction land in the CANs and negatively affected the changes in ecological land. The average contribution rates of the ETCC to changes in agriculture, construction, and ecological lands after the BRI were higher than those before the BRI. They increased by 5.01%, 3.33% and 5.01%, respectively. The ESs after the BRI improved compared with those before the BRI, indicating that, during short-term implementation of the BRI, ETCC growth also ensures the ecological protection of CANs. This study provides a reference for dealing with trade, land management and environmental protection relations between member countries of international economic alliances worldwide.

Ranchers or pastoralists? Farm size, specialisation and production strategy amongst cattle farmers in south-eastern Kazakhstan

Against the global trend towards sedentary, specialised and feed-intensive cattle farming, we explore current patterns of production in Kazakhstan’s traditionally nomadic livestock sector. Experts see considerable potential for output expansion, and the government hopes to promote the sector as an alternative to revenues from hydrocarbons. Which production systems emerge will determine the use of the country’s vast pastoral resources, patterns of economic contribution from livestock and future greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on the beef sector, using original survey data and interviews from south-eastern Kazakhstan to compare rural households and farms by production strategy, generated using cluster analysis from data on livestock holdings, fodder provision and grazing. We examine in particular the relationships between farm size and the characteristics identified. We find that, rather than being specialised and intensive, larger farms tend to be highly diversified in terms of stock species, are more mobile and provide fewer supplements per head than smaller farms. Winter pastures appear to be a key resource associated with larger operations. Many large farms provide fodder mainly as low-quality roughage, although a subset with better access to cropland provide higher quality rations and fatten cattle before sale. Medium-sized farms lack either winter pasture bases or cropland for growing supplements, but proximity to markets enables some to compensate through fodder purchases. Inability to access government support, available only to large farms, hampers their expansion. Farmers’ professional background, distance from markets and environmental conditions are all associated with the production systems observed. In terms of policy, high transaction costs associated with leaseholds and lack of transferability between farmers impede access to land. Current pasture access mechanisms and institutions almost entirely exclude small farms and households. Changes in these systems, combined with infrastructure development, may bring economic, social and environmental benefits for the livestock sector and rural communities.

Pastoralism at Scale on the Kazakh Rangelands: From Clans to Workers to Ranchers

Eurasia contains the world's largest contiguous rangelands, grazed for millennia by mobile pastoralists' livestock. This paper reviews evidence from one Eurasian country, Kazakhstan, on how nomadic pastoralism developed from some 5,000 years ago to the present. We consider a timespan covering pre-industrial, socialist and capitalist periods, during which pastoral social formations were organized in terms of kinship, collective state farms, and private farms and ranches. The aim is to understand how events over the last 100 years have led to the sequential dissolution and re-formation of the social units necessary to manage livestock across a wide expanse of spatially heterogenous and seasonally variable rangeland ecosystems. It is argued that the social scale of extensive livestock management must be tailored to the geographical scale of biotic and abiotic conditions. The paper starts by pointing out the long duration of mobile pastoralism in the Kazakh rangelands and provides an overview of how events from the late 17th C onwards unraveled the relationships between Kazakh nomads' socio-economic units of livestock management and the rangeland environment. At present, mobile animal husbandry is not feasible for the majority of Kazakh livestock owners, who operate solely within small family units without state support. These reformulated post-Soviet livestock grazing patterns are still undergoing rapid change, influencing the composition of rangeland vegetation, wildlife biodiversity, and rates of carbon sequestration. By concentrating capital and landed resources, a minority of large-scale pastoralists have been able to re-extensify by combining mobility with selective intensification, including an increased reliance on cultivated feed. Current state and international efforts are leaving out the majority of small-scale livestock owners and their livestock who are unable to either intensify or extensify at sufficient scale, increasing environmental damage, and social inequality.

Post-Soviet shifts in grazing and fire regimes changed the functional plant community composition on the Eurasian steppe

Globally, grasslands are shaped by grazing and fire, and grassland plants are adapted to these disturbances. However, temperate grasslands have been hotspots of land-use change, and how such changes affect interrelations between herbivory, fire and vegetation are poorly understood. Such land-use changes are widespread on the Eurasian steppe, where the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered the abandonment of cropland and pasture on globally relevant scales. Thus, to determine how relationships between plant functional composition, grazing and fire patterns changed after the Soviet Union dissolved, we studied a 358,000 km² region in the dry steppe of Kazakhstan, combining a large field dataset on plant functional traits with multi-scale satellite data. We found that increases in burned area corresponded to decreases in livestock grazing across large areas. Furthermore, fires occurred more often with high cover of grasses with high leaf dry matter content and thus higher flammability, whereas higher grazing pressure favoured grazing-tolerant woody forbs and ruderal plants with high specific leaf area. The current situation of low grazing pressure represents a historically exceptional, potentially non-analogue state. We suggest that the dissolution of the Soviet Union caused the disturbance regime to shift from grazer to fire control. As grazing and fire each result in different plant functional compositions, we propose that this led to widespread increases in grasses and associated changes in steppe plant community structure. These changes have potentially occurred across an area of more than 2 million km² , representing much of the world's largest temperate grassland area, with globally relevant, yet poorly understood implications for biodiversity and ecosystem functions such as carbon cycling. Additionally, future steppe management must also consider positive implications of abandonment ('rewilding') because reverting the regime shift in disturbance and associated changes in vegetation would require grazing animals to be reintroduced across vast areas.

Modeling the spatial distribution of grazing intensity in Kazakhstan

With increasing affluence in many developing countries, the demand for livestock products is rising and the increasing feed requirement contributes to pressure on land resources for food and energy production. However, there is currently a knowledge gap in our ability to assess the extent and intensity of the utilization of land by livestock, which is the single largest land use in the world. We developed a spatial model that combines fine-scale livestock numbers with their associated energy requirements to distribute livestock grazing demand onto a map of energy supply, with the aim of estimating where and to what degree pasture is being utilized. We applied our model to Kazakhstan, which contains large grassland areas that historically have been used for extensive livestock production but for which the current extent, and thus the potential for increasing livestock production, is unknown. We measured the grazing demand of Kazakh livestock in 2015 at 286 Petajoules, which was 25% of the estimated maximum sustainable energy supply that is available to livestock for grazing. The model resulted in a grazed area of 1.22 million km2, or 48% of the area theoretically available for grazing in Kazakhstan, with most utilized land grazed at low intensities (average off-take rate was 13% of total biomass energy production). Under a conservative scenario, our estimations showed a production potential of 0.13 million tons of beef additional to 2015 production (31% increase), and much more with utilization of distant pastures. This model is an important step forward in evaluating pasture use and available land resources, and can be adapted at any spatial scale for any region in the world.