Preventive Effect Heterogeneity: Causal Inference in Personalized Prevention

Peer Network Counseling Effects on Substance Use: an Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis Integrating Three Randomized Controlled Trials

The current study describes an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) testing the efficacy of a peer-network counseling (PNC) intervention for preventing substance use escalation in adolescents and young adults. PNC has shown efficacy in reducing substance use among adolescents and young adults across small-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Identifying expected large-scale effects and moderators is an important next step in guiding use of PNC in practice. To this end, we combine three small-scale RCTs to test PNC intervention effects on substance use change in a combined sample of 421 adolescents and young adults (50% intervention, 55% female, 69% Black/African-American, M age [SD] = 17.3 [2.2] years). Our approach combines latent change score modeling in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework with study-level fixed effects to obtain (a) a more generalizable PNC effect than we could obtain with each constituent sample and (b) greater power and precision for individual-level moderation of treatment effects. We found that although PNC main effects on substance use outcomes (past 30-day cannabis, alcohol, tobacco, and drug use) were not significant, PNC effects were moderated by individual-level pre-intervention substance use frequency. PNC more strongly reduced drug use at the 1-month follow-up and cannabis use at the 3-month follow-up among participants who showed higher baseline use of these substances. Implications of our approach and findings for prevention researchers are discussed.

Etiologic mechanisms in an adapted family-based preventive intervention for underage alcohol use in Mexico: Results of an exploratory pilot study

Alcohol use represents a global health problem, especially for Latin American youth. As part of the Global Smart Drinking Goals campaign, a family-based preventive intervention was adapted and piloted in Mexico based on an existing evidence-based program, Guiding Good Choices. In this study, we explored the malleability and session-specific mean-level changes in protective and risk factors targeted by the adapted family intervention as related to the prevention of underage alcohol use and abuse. The sample consisted of 177 parents working at four private local companies who had children between the ages of 8 and 16. Data were collected before and after each program session. Linear mixed-effects models were used to examine growth trajectories and session-specific mean differences for selected etiologic factors. Significant effects on protective and risk factors were found. Among protective factors, positive family involvement showed the most considerable linear growth over time, while clear standards for youth showed the largest within-session increase. The greatest linear decrease in risk was observed for family conflict, which also showed the greatest pre-, and post-session reduction. Our findings suggest that the adapted program helped families develop protection against, and reduce risk of, alcohol use in their adolescent children. Results from this exploratory pilot study provide support for further rigorous evaluation and dissemination of the adapted intervention for Hispanic families.

When Is It Time to Revise or Adapt Our Prevention Programs? Introduction to Special Issue on Using Baseline Target Moderation to Assess Variation in Prevention Impact

Adaptation of preventive interventions to increase their impact can be advanced by identifying subgroups or specific contexts where program effects appear stronger or weaker. But how do we know where to look for effect heterogeneity in ways that will inform successful adaptation? This paper introduces a special issue that brings together research across prevention science sub-disciplines that adopted baseline target moderated mediation (BTMM) designs to search for effect heterogeneity and guide adaptation of established prevention programs. For this special issue intervention  scientists analyzed data from randomized trials using BTM and BTMM models, evaluating evidence for variation in intervention impact for trials spanning different health outcomes, different developmental periods, and different social units. This introduction provides a brief summary of the various patterns of effect reported in these papers, noting that the most common pattern involved compensatory effects (those beginning the trial with greater risk or fewer protective factors benefit the most), but other patterns including rich-get-richer and partially iatrogenic effects were also detected. This paper ends with a discussion of methodological and substantive implications of these findings for future prevention research, including next-generation prevention trials.

Emotion Regulation Difficulties in Military Fathers Magnify Their Benefit from a Parenting Program

Military service members who were exposed to combat-related traumatic events may exhibit emotion regulation problems, which can compromise emotion-related parenting practices (ERPPs). After Deployment, Adaptive Parenting Tools (ADAPT) is a preventive intervention developed for military families to improve parenting behaviors, including ERPPs. Parental emotion regulation difficulties may affect parents' responses to this parenting program. Thus, this study aimed to use a baseline target moderated mediation design to examine the intent-to-treat (ITT) effect of the ADAPT program on deployed fathers' emotion-related parenting practices (ERPPs) at the 1-year follow-up as well as the moderation and mediation effect of fathers' emotion regulation difficulties. The sample consisted of 181 deployed fathers and their 4-13-year-old children. At both baseline and 1 year, fathers' ERPPs (i.e., positive engagement, withdrawal avoidance, reactivity-coercion, and distress avoidance) were observed during a series of structured parent-child interaction tasks. Results of path analyses showed no ITT effects on fathers' ERPPs, but emotion regulation difficulties significantly moderated ITT effects on distress avoidance. Fathers with higher levels of emotion regulation difficulties at baseline showed decreases in distress avoidance behaviors at 1 year if randomized to the intervention condition. Emotion regulation difficulties also significantly mediated the program's effect on reductions in reactivity coercion for fathers with high levels of emotion regulation difficulties at baseline. These findings highlight parental emotion regulation as a key baseline target of the ADAPT program and provide insight into how and for whom a parenting program improves parenting practices.

Heterogeneity in the Effects of Interventions to Prevent Depression in Couples Facing Job Loss: Studying Baseline Target Moderation of Impact

Couples' communication styles are associated with depression following job loss for both job seekers and their partners. The Couples Employment Program (CEP), an eight-session program for couples facing job loss, was developed to integrate job search strategies sessions from the JOBS program with couple communication sessions, targeting job search behavior, motivation, mastery, and couple communication. We hypothesized that CEP would have compensatory effects, such that those who began the program with lower job search behavior, lower motivation, less mastery, and more negative or less positive couple communication would make more gains on these targets, and this would mediate impact on reducing risk for depression. We conducted a randomized field trial of CEP with 1477 heterosexual couples facing recent unemployment. Baseline levels of job search behavior and motivation, but not mastery or depression, moderated the impact of intervention on job seeker depression slopes over 12 months; job seekers reporting less job search behavior and motivation at baseline benefited more. Male partners with higher baseline depression also benefited. Opposite to our hypothesis, baseline levels of couple's communication moderated the impact of intervention such that partners in couples with more negative and less positive communication showed iatrogenic effects. There was no evidence that baseline target levels moderated the impact of the intervention on any of these targets. We speculate that more intensive communication training may be necessary for positive impact.

Secondary Analysis to Inform the Development of Adaptive Preventive Interventions

For the past 30 years, scholars across the fields of epidemiology, education, psychology, and numerous other fields have worked to develop interventions designed to reduce risk and enhance protection to prevent mental, emotional, and behavioral problems across the lifespan. This article presents a series of next steps that leverage this foundational science to inform the development of adaptive preventive interventions. Adaptive preventive interventions (APIs) tailor the intervention to fit the diverse, sometimes changing, needs of participants with the goal of better prevention outcomes for more individuals. Secondary analyses of data from preventive intervention trials to identify moderators, mediators, and antecedents of attrition and intervention failure can be useful for designing effective APIs. Moderators that identify intervention effect heterogeneity can be used within an API to tailor the intervention to meet the unique needs of important participant subgroups. Mediators and predictors of disengagement and attrition can be helpful tailoring variables in an API to trigger change to the intervention. Preventive intervention trials that incorporate frequent assessment of potential mediators, moderators, and antecedents of attrition during the intervention period are needed. Secondary analyses of data from preventive intervention trials provide an important foundation for next-generation APIs.

Three Flavorings for a Soup to Cure what Ails Mental Health Services

With new tools from artificial intelligence and new perspectives on personalizing interventions, we could revolutionize the way mental health services are delivered and achieve major gains in improving the public's mental health. We examine Dr. Bickman's vision around these technological and paradigm changes that would usher in major scientific, workforce training, and societal cultural changes. We argue that additional efforts in research evaluations in implementation have the potential to scale up and adapt existing interventions and scale them out to diverse populations and service systems. The next stage of this work involves testing the effectiveness of personalized interventions that are preferred by the public and integrating these choices into sustainable service systems. We note cautions on the delivery of these programs as automated algorithmic recommendations are heretofore foreign to humans.

How Early Stressful Life Experiences Combine With Adolescents' Conjoint Health Risk Trajectories to Influence Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in Young Adulthood

Research has primarily focused on additive (unique) associations between early stressful life experiences (specifically, socioeconomic adversity and maltreatment) and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk without considering multiplicative (synergistic) influences. Furthermore, research has not fully considered the varying patterns of health risk trajectories (e.g., substance use, obesogenic-related behaviors, depressive symptoms) across adolescence and the transition to young adulthood that may link earlier stressful experiences and later cardiometabolic disease risk. This study examined heterogeneity in conjoint health risk trajectories from adolescence to the transition to young adulthood and their additive and multiplicative (synergistic) influences with early stressful life experiences on cardiometabolic disease risk in young adulthood using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 9,421; 55.6% female) over a period of 13 years. Four distinct conjoint health risk trajectories were identified considering trajectories of substance use behaviors, obesogenic-related behaviors, and depressive symptoms: (a) overall high-risk, (b) behavioral risks, (c) psycho-obesogenic risks, and (d) overall low-risk. Socioeconomic adversity and maltreatment were additively and multiplicatively associated with cardiometabolic disease risk in young adulthood. Individuals with overall high-risk conjoint trajectories averaged higher cardiometabolic disease risk in young adulthood when they were exposed to early socioeconomic adversity. Implications for personalized interventions for individuals who have experienced multiple forms of health risks are discussed.

Intimate Relationships and Depression: Searching for Causation in the Sea of Association

This article provides a critical review of existing research on intimate (marriage or marriage-like) relationship distress and risk for depression. Using the meta-framework of research triangulation, we seek to synthesize research evidence across several different methodologies and study designs and to draw the most reliable conclusion regarding a potential causal association between relationship distress and depression. Focusing on existing correlational (i.e., observational), genetically informed, and intervention (i.e., experimental) research on the association between relationship distress and depression, we conclude that the existing body of research evidence supports the claim that relationship distress is a causal risk factor for depression. A secondary aim of the article is to highlight a variety of effective methods that, when viewed from the perspective of triangulation, enhance the pursuit of causal inference, including propensity score matching, target trial emulation, directed acyclic graph approach, and Mendelian randomization.

Can We Uncouple Neighborhood Disadvantage and Delinquent Behaviors? An Experimental Test of Family Resilience Guided by the Social Disorganization Theory of Delinquent Behaviors

Although the influence of neighborhood disadvantage on youth development of delinquent behavior is well established, findings from this research have yet to inform the development of family-centered prevention programming to protect youth from these erosive effects. The current paper examines the role of family integration in buffering the impact of social disadvantage in a sample of N = 298 families randomly assigned either to a control condition or to a family-based prevention program previously shown to enhance marriage and parenting. We first confirmed that neighborhood concentrated disadvantage predicted change in delinquent behaviors across the course of the study. Additionally, replicating prior work, parents participating in the Protecting Strong African American Families (ProSAAF) program, relative to those randomly assigned to the control group, significantly improved their use of effective communication strategies with each other and reduced ineffective conflict in front of youth. This resulted in a significant indirect effect of ProSAAF on change in youth delinquent behaviors. Furthermore, using mediated moderation analysis, the study tested the buffering effect of greater family integration, showing that experimentally produced change in interparental communication skills and the resulting reduction in youth exposure to parental conflict buffered the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on change in youth delinquent behaviors, supporting a mediated moderation model in which family environments buffer neighborhood effects.

Using baseline target moderation to guide decisions on adapting prevention programs

Tom Dishion, a pioneer in prevention science, was one of the first to recognize the importance of adapting interventions to the needs of individual families. Building towards this goal, we suggest that prevention trials be used to assess baseline target moderated mediation (BTMM), where preventive intervention effects are mediated through change in specific targets, and the resulting effect varies across baseline levels of the target. Four forms of BTMM found in recent trials are discussed including compensatory, rich-get-richer, crossover, and differential iatrogenic effects. A strategy for evaluating meaningful preventive effects is presented based on preventive thresholds for diagnostic conditions, midpoint targets and proximal risk or protective mechanisms. Methods are described for using the results from BTMM analyses of these thresholds to estimate indices of intervention risk reduction or increase as they vary over baseline target levels, and potential cut points are presented for identifying subgroups that would benefit from program adaptation because of weak or potentially iatrogenic program effects. Simulated data are used to illustrate curves for the four forms of BTMM effects and how implications for adaptation change when untreated control group outcomes also vary over baseline target levels.

Moving Toward a Precision-Based, Personalized Framework for Prevention Science: Introduction to the Special Issue

The goal of this Special Issue is to introduce prevention scientists to an emerging form of healthcare, called precision medicine. This approach integrates investigation of the mechanisms of disease and health-compromising behaviors with prevention, treatment, and cure resolved at the level of the individual. Precision Medicine and its derivative personalized prevention represents a promising paradigm for prevention science as it accounts for response heterogeneity and guides development of targeted interventions that may enhance program effect sizes. If successfully integrated into prevention science research, personalized prevention is an approach that can inform the development of decision support tools (screening measures, prescriptive algorithms) and enhance the utility of mobile health technologies that will enable practitioners to use personalized consumer data to inform decisions about the best type and/or intensity of a prevention strategy for particular individuals or subgroups of individuals. In this special issue, we present conceptual articles that provide a heuristic framework for precision-based, personalization prevention research and empirical studies that address research questions exemplary of a new generation of precision-based personalized preventive interventions focused on children's mental health, behavioral health, and education.