Evaluation of the Swat River, Northern Pakistan, water quality using multivariate statistical techniques and water quality index (WQI) model

Pathways and risk analysis of arsenic and heavy metal pollution in riverine water: Application of multivariate statistics and USEPA-recommended risk assessment models

This study analyzed surface water from the River Swat, Pakistan, using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, multivariate statistical techniques, and US-EPA risk assessment models to evaluate the concentrations, distribution, pathways, and potential risks of arsenic (As) and heavy metals, including chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). The results revealed significant correlations (p ≤ 0.01) among metals that indicated common pollution sources, likely influenced by anthropogenic point and non-point activities. Along the monitored sites (S1-S10), the mass flow of ∑metals showed a dynamic pattern: progressively increasing downstream, decreasing at S6-S7, rising again at S7-S8, and then steadily declining toward S10, with Ni being the most abundant metal, followed by Cr > As> Cu > Mn > Co > Zn > Hg > Cd > Pb. The As and Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI), As and Heavy Metal Evaluation Index (HEI), and Pollution Index (PI) revealed variations in pollution levels, ranking the metals in the orders of Co > As> Cr > Cd > Mn > Hg > Ni > Pb > Cu > Zn, As> Cr > Ni > Hg > Cd > Co > Mn > Cu > Zn > Pb, and Hg > Ni > As> Co > Cu > Cd > Mn > Zn > Pb, respectively. However, according to the risk assessment, overall individual metal contamination in the River Swat water was below the ecological risk threshold (ERI 〈110). Where, the Chronic Daily Intakes (CDIs), Hazard Quotients (HQs), Hazard Indices (HIs), Cancer Risks (CRs), and Total Cancer Risks (TCRs) of Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Hg, and Pb associated with daily river water intake and dermal contact indicate that long-term exposure to untreated river water may pose both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks to residents.

Assessment of the water quality in the coastal Yaqui valley (Mexico): Implications for human health and ecological risks

This study examines the water quality in the Yaqui Valley in Mexico, a semi-arid region impacted by mining, agriculture, and aquaculture. Contamination sources, health risks and ecological impacts are investigated. Freshwater was found to be contaminated by dissolved As, presumed to result from mining activities in the mountains. Drainage water revealed an overall contamination by dissolved As and by suspended particles enriched with Al, Fe and Mn, associated with runoff processes. Intermittent contamination of drainage water by Cu, K+, NO3- and PO43- is attributed to the use of fertilizers or pesticides. In the coastal area, drainage water contains high concentrations of Na, Ca, SO42- and Cl, related to salinization processes, as well as higher concentrations of dissolved As, related to solid/liquid interactions that are enhanced by salinization. This drainage water discharges into the bay, degrading the seawater quality and increasing ecological risks. Outputs of this study can serve as a reference for the protection of this economically important coastal ecosystem. Concerning health risks, this study demonstrates that groundwater is also contaminated by dissolved As, believed to be associated with transfers from the geological basement to the dissolved phase of water, and other major chemicals related to salinization processes. The findings indicate that ingesting the groundwater poses a significant risk to human health with a primary exposure risk associated with dissolved As, particularly among children. This study presents crucial data for the Yaqui population, water managers and researchers, and provides novel insights into the management and mitigation of the identified risks.

Risk assessment and soil heavy metal contamination near marble processing plants (MPPs) in district Malakand, Pakistan

Soil heavy metals (HMs) pollution is a growing global concern, mainly in regions with rapid industrial growth. This study assessed the concentrations, potential sources, and health risks of HMs in agricultural soils near marble processing plants in Malakand, Pakistan. A total of 21 soil samples were analyzed for essential and toxic HMs via inductively coupled plasma‒optical emission spectrometry (ICP‒OES), and probabilistic health risks were evaluated via Monte Carlo simulation. The concentrations (mg/kg) of Ca (29,250), P (805.5) and Cd (4.5) exceeded the average shale limits of 22,100, 700, and 3.0 mg/kg, respectively, and indices such as Nemerow's synthetic contamination index (NSCI) and the geoaccumulation index (Igeo) categorized the soil sites as moderately polluted. The potential ecological risk index (PERI) indicated considerable to high ecological risk for As and Cd. The deterministic analysis indicated non-carcinogenic risks for children (HI > 1), whereas the probabilistic analysis suggested no significant risk (HI < 1) for both adults and children. Both methods indicated that the total cancer risk for Cr, Ni, Cd, and As exceeded the USEPA safety limits of 1.0E-06 and 1.0E-04. Sensitivity analysis identified heavy metal concentration, exposure duration, and frequency as key risk factors. The study suggested that HM contamination is mainly anthropogenic, poses a threat to soil and human health, and highlights the need for management strategies and surveillance programs to mitigate these risks.

Advanced approach combines integrated weight water quality index and potential toxic elements for environmental and health risk assessment supported by simulation technique in Oued Souf, Algeria

The current research study evaluated the health and environmental risks issues associated with potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in the complex terminal aquifer located in the Algerian desert. The methods used included principal component and cluster (dendrogram) analysis to estimate source of ions and contamination. Various indices such as the Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI), Metal Index, hazard quotient, hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR) were applied to assess both environmental and human health risks. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo method was applied for probabilistic assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks through oral and dermal exposure routes in both adults and children. The results revealed that approximately 16% of the samples fell within the low pollution category (HPI < 100), indicating relatively lower levels of heavy metal contamination. However, the remaining 84% of the samples exhibited high pollution levels, indicating a significant presence of heavy metal pollutants in the northeastern part of the investigated area. The calculated average risk index (RI) for the collected samples was 18.99, with a range from 0.03 to 103.21. This indicates that a large portion, 82% of the samples, could cause low ecological risk (RI < 30), whereas the remaining 18% indicate a significant environmental pollution risk. The HI for oral ingestion showed that adults had HI values ranging from 0.231 to 1.54, while children exhibited higher values, ranging from 0.884 to 5.9 (Fig. 5a). For dermal exposure, HI values in adults ranged from 2.71E-07 to 8.74E-06 and in children, from 2.18E-06 to 7.03E-05. These findings highlight the potential non-carcinogenic risks associated with oral exposure to PTEs and underscore the increased vulnerability of children to metals such as Fe, Mn, Pb, and Cr. Most samples showed CR exceeding 1 × 10-4 for chromium (Cr) and lead (Pb), indicating a significant vulnerability to carcinogenic effects in both children and adults.

Occurrence of toxic elements in river areas along drains and groundwater resources: source of contamination and associated health risk

The objective of the current research was to examine the water quality of the River Ravi and the River Sutlej, with a specific focus on potentially toxic elements (PTEs). Additionally, we sought to monitor the sources of pollution in these rivers by gathering samples from the primary drains that carry industrial and municipal waste into these water bodies. Furthermore, we aimed to evaluate the impact of PTEs in surface water on groundwater quality by collecting groundwater samples from nearby populated areas. A total of 30 samples were collected from these three sources: rivers (6 samples), drains (9 samples), and groundwater (15 samples). The analysis revealed that the levels of PTEs in the samples from these three resources having a mean value: arsenic (As) 23.5 µg/L, zinc (Zn) 2.35 mg/L, manganese (Mn) 0.51 mg/L, lead (Pb) 6.63 µg/L, and chromium (Cr) 10.9 µg/L, exceeded the recommended values set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Furthermore, PTEs including (As 84%), (Zn 65%), (Mn 69%), (Pb 53%), (Cr 53%), and (Ni 27%), samples were beyond the recommended values of WHO. The results of the Principal Component Analysis indicated that surface water and groundwater exhibited total variability of 83.87% and 85.97%, respectively. This indicates that the aquifers in the study area have been contaminated due to both natural geogenic factors and anthropogenic sources. These sources include the discharge of industrial effluents, wastewater from municipal sources, mining activities, agricultural practices, weathering of rocks, and interactions between rocks and water. Spatial distribution maps clearly illustrated the widespread mobilization of PTEs throughout the study area. Furthermore, a health risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the potential adverse health effects of PTEs through the ingestion of drinking groundwater by both children and adults. Health risk assessment result show the mean carcinogenic values for As, Cr, Pb and Ni in children are calculated to be (1.88E-04), (2.61E-04), (2.16E-02), and (5.74E-05), respectively. Similarly, the mean carcinogenic values for the above mentioned PTEs in adults were recorded to be (2.39E-05), (3.32E-05), (1.19E-03), and (7.29E-06) respectively. The total hazard index values for As, Zn, Cr, Pb, Mn, Cu, and Ni in children were observed to be (9.07E + 00), (9.95E-07), (4.59E-04), (5.75E-04), (4.72E-05), (2.78E-03), and (5.27E-05) respectively. The analysis revealed that As has an adverse effect on the population of the study area as compared to other PTEs investigated in this study.

Assessment of potentially toxic and mineral elements in paddy soils and their uptake by rice (Oryza sativa L.) with associated health hazards in district Malakand, Pakistan

Rice, a primary food source in many countries of the world accumulate potentially harmful elements which pose a significant health hazard to consumers. The current study aimed to evaluate potentially toxic and mineral elements in both paddy soils and rice grains associated with allied health risks in Malakand, Pakistan. Rice plants with intact root soil were randomly collected from paddy fields and analyzed for mineral and potentially toxic elements (PTEs) through inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP‒OES). Through deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment models, the daily intake of PTEs with allied health risks from consumption of rice were estimated for children and adults. The results of soil pH (< 8.5) and electrical conductivity (EC > 400 μs/cm), indicated slightly saline nature. The mean phosphorus concentration of 291.50 (mg/kg) in soil samples exceeded FAO/WHO permissible limits. The normalized variation matrix of soil pH with respect to Ni (0.05), Ca (0.05), EC (0.08), and Mg (0.09), indicated significant influence of pH on PTEs mobility. In rice grains, the mean concentrations (mg/kg) of Mg (463.81), Al (70.40), As (1.23), Cr (12.53), Cu (36.07), Fe (144.32), Mn (13.89), and Ni (1.60) exceeded FAO/WHO safety limits. The transfer factor >1 for K, Cu, P and Zn indicated bioavailability and transfer of these elements from soil to rice grains. Monte Carlo simulations of hazard index >1 for Cr, Zn, As, and Cu with certainties of 89.93% and 90.17%, indicated significant noncarcinogenic risks for children and adults from rice consumption. The total carcinogenic risk (TCR) for adults and children exceeded the USEPA acceptable limits of 1×10-6 to 1×10-4, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the ingestion rate was a key risk factor. Arsenic (As) primarily influenced total cancer risk (TCR) in children, while chromium (Cr) significantly impacted adults. Deterministic cancer risk values slightly exceeded probabilistic values due to inherent uncertainties in deterministic analysis. Rice consumption poses health risks, mainly from exposure to Cr, Ni and As in the investigated area.

Adsorption of trace heavy metals through organic compounds enriched biochar using isotherm adsorption and kinetic models

Trace heavy metals such as copper and nickel, when exceeds a certain level, cause detrimental effects on the ecosystem. The current study examined the potential of organic compounds enriched rice husk biochar (OCEB's) to remove the trace heavy metals from an aqueous solution in four steps. In 1st step, biochar' physical and chemical properties were analyzed through scanning electron microscope (SEM) and Fourier transforms infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). In the 2nd step, two biochar vis-a-vis glycine, alanine enriched biochar (GBC, ABC) was selected based on their adsorption capacity of four different metals Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb (chromium, copper, nickel, and lead). These two adsorbents (GBC, ABC) were further used to evaluate the best interaction of biochar for metal immobilization based on varying concentrations and times. Langmuir isotherm model suggested that the adsorption of Ni and Cu on the adsorbent surface supported the monolayer sorption. The qmax value of GBC for Cu removal increased by 90% compared to SBC (Simple rice husk biochar). The interaction of Cu and Ni with GBC and ABC was chemical, and 10 different time intervals were studied using pseud first and second-order kinetics models. The current study has supported the pseudo second-order kinetic model, which exhibited that the sorption of Ni and Cu occurred due to the chemical processes. The % removal efficiency with GBC was enhanced by 21% and 30% for Cu and Ni, respectively compared to the SBC. It was also noticed that GBC was 21% more efficient for % removal efficiency than the CBC. The study's findings supported that organic compound enriched rice husk biochar (GBC and ABC) is better than SBC for immobilizing the trace heavy metals from an aqueous solution.

Reconnaissance Survey of Organic Contaminants of Emerging Concern in the Kabul and Swat Rivers of Pakistan

The Swat and Kabul rivers of northern Pakistan are within an important regional watershed that supports river-based livelihoods and is impacted by untreated effluent discharges and municipal solid waste. Evidence indicates that fish populations are decreasing in these rivers. One potential cause of poor aquatic health is pollution; therefore, we investigated the presence of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the river systems. Water samples were collected in the Kabul River (n = 9) and Swat River (n = 10) during seasons of high (summer 2018) and low (winter 2019) river flow. Agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, plasticizers, chemicals in personal care products, and hormones were quantified via liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry. In the Swat River, caffeine (18-8452 ng/L), N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET; 16-56 ng/L), and plasticizers (13-7379 ng/L) were detected at all sites during both seasons, while butachlor (16-98 ng/L) was detected only during high flow. In the Kabul River, caffeine (12-2081 ng/L) and several plasticizers (91-722 ng/L) were detected at all sites during both seasons, while DEET (up to 97 ng/L) was detected only during high flow. During low flow, pharmaceuticals (analgesics and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) were quantified in both rivers (up to 823 ng/L), with detection frequencies from 70% to 100% and 0% to 78% in the Swat and Kabul Rivers, respectively. Intermittent-use and natural seasonal processes (increased runoff and dilution from rainfall and snowmelt) yielded higher agrochemical concentrations and lower concentrations of continuous-use compounds (e.g., caffeine) during high flow. The present study provides the first insight into CEC concentrations in the Swat River, additional insight into the Kabul River stressors, and, overall, contaminant risks to aquatic life. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2599-2613. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Investigating the impacts of heavy metal(loid)s on ecology and human health in the lower basin of Hungary's Danube River: A Python and Monte Carlo simulation-based study

This study aimed to determine the environmental and health risks of the heavy metal levels in the Danube River in Hungary. The metals, including Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Pb, and As, were measured in the period from 2013 to 2019. The Spearman correlation and heatmap cluster analysis were utilized to determine the origin of pollution and the factors that control surface water quality. Several indices, such as the heavy metal pollution index (HPI), metal index (MI), hazard quotient oral and dermal (HQ), hazard index oral and dermal (HI), and carcinogenic risk (CR), were conducted to evaluate the potential risks for the environment and human health. The values of the HPI were between the range of 15 < HPI < 30, which indicated moderate pollution; however, the MI results showed high pollution in Dunaföldvár and Hercegszántó cities. The ecological risk (RI < 30) and HI values (< 1) showed low environmental risks and non-carcinogenic impacts of the existing metals, either on adults or children. The mean CR value of oral arsenic was 2.2E-04 and 2.5E-04 during April-September and October-March, respectively, indicating that children were the most vulnerable to arsenic-carcinogenic oral effects. While lead's CR oral values for children during April-September exceeded the threshold of 1.0E-04, chromium's oral and dermal CR values for both adults and children were 2.08E-04, 6.11E-04, 1.97E-04, and 5.82E-04 during April-September and October-March, respectively. These results demonstrate the potential carcinogenic risks related to chromium exposure within the two pathways in Hungary and highlight the need for effective measures to mitigate these risks.

Evaluation of Darbandikhan Lake and its tributaries' water quality in the Sulaymaniyah Province in Iraqi Kurdistan, using the water quality index model and multivariate statistical analysis

This study evaluated the characteristics of the water in Darbandikhan Lake and its rivers in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. For this purpose, 25 samples were collected seasonally and analysed for 36 physiochemical parameters. The proportions of physiochemical parameters exceeding the WHO standards in the samples with their highest exceedances were 9894% for Al, 198% for Mn, 40% for Pb, 1.6% for pH, 3250% for PO4, 11.8% for Sr, 155% for T.Alk, 7813% for turbidity, 1188% for Ti, 1033% for Tl and 1293% for V in the river water and 120% for Co, 74% for Cr, 4485% for Fe and 9% for K in the lake water. The pollution sources were designated by multivariate statistical analysis as being related to industrial and domestic waste, solid waste disposal, fertilisers and organic contamination from agricultural and natural sources. The water quality index (WQI) results were 22.3 to 721.3 for drinking, 13.9 to 86.2 for irrigation, 1.4 to 299.5 for livestock, 71.5 to 1754.4 for the textile industry, 20.7 to 237.9 for recreation and 64.6 to 1867.4 for aquatic life. The irrigation water quality index (IWQI) results were excellent for sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), and for the US salinity scale, all water samples fell into the medium salinity-low sodium category (C2-S1) in all seasons, except for all Chaqan River samples. The Tanjaro River sample in spring fell in the relatively high salinity-low sodium category (C3-S1), excellent and good for sodium percentage (Na%), suitable to moderate for permeability index (PI%), suitable to unsuitable for magnesium hazard percentage (MH%), suitable for Kelly Index (KI) and safe to unsuitable for residual sodium carbonates (RSC). The Sirwan River, Tanjaro River and Zmkan River took first to third place in both the annual average pollution share ratio and the discharge. While the Zalm River ranked fourth in discharge and fifth in pollution share ratio, the Chaqan River was the reverse. The highest pollution share ratio was 64.3 for the Sirwan River in summer, and the lowest was 0.7 for the Zalm River in autumn.

Hydrochemical evaluation of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes using multivariate indices along Indus Suture Zone, North Pakistan

The present study is aimed to investigate the hydrochemical characteristics, spatial distribution and suitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes along the Indus Suture Zone (ISZ), north Pakistan. Physicochemical parameters and hazardous trace elements (HTEs) like Cd, Co, Cu and Mn were determined following standard methods. The mean and median concentrations were found below the World Health Organization (WHO) drinking water guidelines values. Hydrochemical results indicate that groundwater sources were mainly attributed to rock-water interaction category. Piper diagram shows that most of the groundwater samples fall in Ca-HCO₃^─ class presenting weak-alkaline proportion type. The drinking water quality index (DWQI) ranking was categorized as good to excellent, indicating the overall quality of the groundwater may pose no health hazard concern. Based on irrigation WQI (SAR, Na%, MAR, KR), the groundwater was found fit for irrigation except SAR whereas 36% of the groundwater samples fall within the poor class. The total HI values through dermal contact exceeded the safe non-carcinogenic threshold of HI = 1. Therefore, there is required an effective groundwater monitoring and management facility in the study area to safeguard residents from various illnesses associated with varying HTEs concentrations in drinking water. The major response actions needed for groundwater bodies restoration are including the installation of a continuous groundwater monitoring network and control of agricultural fertilizers that seems to be the most effective and tangible for immediate action.

Spatial distribution, compositional profile, sources, ecological and human health risks of legacy and emerging per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in freshwater reservoirs of Punjab, Pakistan

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are a large group of chemicals reported in global environment and are responsible for various adverse impacts on humans and environment. We report a comprehensive study on occurrence of PFASs, including legacy, substitute and emerging ones, from Pakistan. Surface water samples were collected from five ecologically important freshwater reservoirs in Pakistan, namely, Head Panjnad (HP), Head Trimmu (HT), Chashma Barrage (CB), Head Blloki (HB), and Head Qadirabad (HQ). The detection frequencies of PFASs ranged between 37 %-100 %. The highest concentration of ∑₁₅PFASs was detected at HP (114.1 ng L^-1), whereas the lowest at HQ (19.9 ng L^-1). Among the analyzed PFASs, 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonic acid (6:2 FTS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) showed maximum mean concentrations of 9.1 ng L^-1 and 7 ng L^-1 at HP, followed by Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) with level of 0.99 ng L^-1 at HT. The ecological risk assessment for selected species i.e., daphnid, mysid, fish and green algae showed that PFOS, perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) exhibited moderate risk i.e., Hazard Quotients (HQs) < 1 to the modeled organisms, whereas perfluorobutane sulfonic acid (PFBS) showed the high risk to green algae (HQs = 8.6) and PFOA presented a high risk to all the organisms (HQs ranged between 1.04 and 7.38). The level of ∑PFASs at HP (114.1 ng L^-1) exceed the EU guideline value of ∑PFASs in water (100 ng L^-1), however the risk quotient (RQ_mix) values of all age groups were < 1 implying that the detected PFASs in water do not pose risk to human health. Source apportionment through Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) showed that industrial effluent is the main source of PFASs in freshwater reservoirs. Comparable concentrations of legacy and substitute PFASs in this study indicate that legacy PFASs are still in use adjacent to ecologically important water reservoirs.

Irrigation suitability, health risk assessment and source apportionment of heavy metals in surface water used for irrigation near marble industry in Malakand, Pakistan

Water is a vital, finite resource whose quantity and quality are deteriorating as the world population increases. The current study aims to investigate the concentration of heavy metals (HM) in surface water for irrigation purposes with associated human health risks and pollution sources near the marble industry in Malakand, Pakistan. Twenty-seven water samples were randomly collected and analyzed for HM concentration by inductively coupled plasma‒optical emission spectrometry (ICP‒OES). pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) were measured using standard methods of American Public Health Association (APHA). Irrigation suitability was assessed using specific water quality parameters. The associated health risks from ingestion and dermal exposure to heavy metals were calculated by USEPA health risk indices. Pollution sources and spatial distribution mapping were studied using compositional data analysis (CoDa) and the application of a geographic information system (GIS) to understand the changing behavior of heavy metals in surface waters. The concentrations of BOD (89%), COD (89%), Al (89%), Ca (89%), Cr (56%), Cu (78%), Fe (56%), K (34%) Mg (23%), Mn (56%), Na (89%), Ni (56%), P (89%), and Zn (11%) exceeded the safety limits of National Environmental Quality standards (NEQs) of Pakistan. The results of Kelly's ratio (KR) classified surface water as unsuitable for irrigation. The average daily doses (ADD, mg/kg/day) for Al, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn were higher in children than in adults. The hazard index (HI) for children and adults was above the threshold (HI > 1), indicating a significant risk of non-carcinogenic toxicity. The carcinogenic risk values for Cr and Ni were above the USEPA limit (1 × 10-6 to 1 × 10-4), suggesting a potential carcinogenic risk for the target population. Principal component analysis (PCA), biplot (CLR), and the CoDa-dendrogram allowed for the identification of elemental associations, and their potential source was anthropogenic rather than natural in origin. Regular monitoring and phytoremediation strategies are proposed to safeguard crops and human health.

Application of water quality indices and health risk models in the arid coastal aquifer, Southern Saudi Arabia

A systematic study was performed in the arid coastal aquifer to evaluate groundwater quality using drinking water quality indices (DWQI) and health risk assessment models in southern Saudi Arabia. Groundwater samples were collected (n = 80) and analysed for major and minor ions. Results suggest that 85% of wells are unsuitable for drinking due to high salinity and hardness. Likewise, high NO₃^- and F^- are encountered in 51% and 46% of wells, respectively. High salinity, Cl^- and SO₄^2- are noticed in the coastal wells, which are derived from saline sources, evaporation and anthropogenic activities. High NO₃^- is originated from anthropogenic sources and the nitrification process. Recharge of wastewater with high NO₃^- is mixed with high salinity groundwater in this shallow aquifer. DWQI indicates that 66% of samples are poor to unsuitable classes. Wells with poor quality groundwater existed in the coastal belt and water quality is degraded while moving from upstream to downstream. The average values of hazard quotient (HQoral, NO₃^-, F^-) and total hazard index (THI) ensured that highly vulnerable groups are in the order of infants > children > adults. In the study region, the THI are > 1 in 75% (adults), 89% (children) and 94% (infants) of samples, respectively. The spatial distribution of HQoral reveals that groundwater in the coastal and southern regions is not advisable for direct oral ingestion, which causes serious non-carcinogenic health risk to inhabitants. Groundwater in these regions needs proper treatment to remove the contaminants before use.

Indices and models of surface water quality assessment: Review and perspectives

Many technologies have been designed to monitor, evaluate, and improve surface water quality, as high-quality water is essential for human activities including agriculture, livestock, and industry. As such, in this study, we investigated water quality indices (WQIs), trophic status indices (TSIs), and heavy metal indices (HMIs) for assessing surface water quality. Based on these indices, we summarised and compared water assessment models using expert system (ES) and machine learning (ML) methods. We also discussed the current status and future perspectives of water quality management. The results of our analyses showed that assessment indices can be used in three aspects of surface water quality assessment: WQIs are aggregated from multiple parameters and commonly used in surface water quality classification; TSIs are calculated from the concentrations of different nutrients required for algae and bacteria, and employed to evaluate the eutrophication levels of lakes and reservoirs; HMIs are mainly applied for human health risk assessment and the analysis of correlation of heavy metal sources. ES- and ML-based assessment models have been developed to efficiently generate assessment indices and predict water quality status based on big data obtained from new techniques. By implementing dynamic monitoring and analysis of water quality, we designed a next-generation water quality management system based on the above indices and assessment models, which shows promise for improving the accuracy of water quality assessment.

Human health risk assessment of heavy metal and pathogenic contamination in surface water of the Punnakayal estuary, South India

Variation in levels of toxic heavy metals in river system during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown might potentially assist in development of a public health risk mitigation system associated with the water consumption. The water quality of Punnakayal estuary in the Thamirabarani River system from the south India, a vital source of water for drinking and domestic purposes, industrial usage, and irrigation was assessed here. A comparitive assessment of physico-chemical variables (pH, EC, TDS, DO, BOD, turbidity and NO₃), microbiological parameters (total coliform bacteria, fecal coliform bacteria, fecal streptococci and escherichia coli) and toxic metals (As, Cr, Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb) suggested a decrease of 20% in the contaminant ratio during the lockdown period in comparison to the pre-lockdown period. The Health risk assessment models (HQ, HI, and TCR) highlighted carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazards for both children and adults through the ingestion and dermal adsorption exposures. The HI values for both As and Cr exceeded the acceptable limit (>1) during the lockdown period, but the potential risk for children and adults remained low in compaisio with the pre-lockdown period. Our results suggested that the Thamirabarani River system remained hostile to human health even during the lockdown period, and it requires regular monitoring through a volunteer water quality committee with private and government participations.

Assessment of Groundwater Quality and the Main Controls on Its Hydrochemistry in a Changing Climate in Morocco (Essaouira Basin)

Groundwater is essential for both water supply and environmental conservation, especially in semi-arid and desert areas. Managing groundwater resources requires a thorough understanding of groundwater characteristics and dynamics. The hydrogeochemical properties and evolution of groundwater in the Essaouira synclinal basin in northwest Morocco were studied in this research, with 105 water samples collected in 2009, 2017, 2018, and 2019. The Water Quality Index (WQI) and Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI) were developed to determine groundwater quality for consumption and irrigation purposes. The chemical evolution of groundwater is mainly dominated by evaporite, mineral carbonate dissolutions, and cation exchange. Contamination by nitrates is particularly severe in agricultural and tourist areas. The WQI of the 2019 campaign showed that 6.7% of groundwater samples are unsuitable for drinking; 76.7% are poor quality water; and 13.3% are very poor-quality water; while only 3.3% are drinkable. According to IWQI, the total study area has been split into 50% (good), 43.3% (bad), and 6.6% (unfit), respectively, and no excellent groundwater areas have been identified. Therefore, the water is suitable for agriculture but must be treated for drinking. The presence of evaporation and maritime intrusion and the contribution of recent precipitations to aquifer recharging were demonstrated by stable isotope content.

Assessment of heavy metals accumulation in agricultural soil, vegetables and associated health risks

Industrialization plays a vital role in the development of a country's economy. However, it also adversely affects the environment by discharging various unwanted and harmful substances such as heavy metals into the surface and subsurface aquifers. The current research work investigates the identification, characterization, and evaluation of specific heavy metals in industrial wastewater (IWW) and different composite samples of soil and vegetables (onion, pumpkin, lady finger, and green pepper) collected from selected agricultural fields irrigated with canals fed IWW in Mingora city of Swat (Pakistan). Obtained results were compared with the tube well water irrigated soil and vegetables grown in it. Heavy metals accumulation was tested through wet digestion method and atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS). The metal transfer factor (MTF) of heavy metals from soil to vegetables was also determined along with the health index (HI) to assess the potential health risk of the metals towards consumers using Monte Carlo simulation technique. Analysis of water samples showed that the concentration in mg l-1 of heavy metals in IWW follows the trend Fe (6.72) > Cr (0.537) > Pb (0.393) > Co (0.204) > Mn (0.125) > Ni (0.121). Analysis of the soil samples irrigated with IWW followed the order of Fe (47.27) > Pb (2.92) > Cr (2.90) >Ni (1.02) > Mn (0.90) > Co (0.68) and Fe (17.12) > Pb (2.12) > Cr (2.03) >Ni (0.76) > Co (0.49) > Mn (0.23) irrigated with TWW. Heavy metals concentration values found in soil irrigated with IWW were higher than the soil irrigated with TWW. Similar trends were found for agricultural produces grown on soil irrigated with IWW and found higher than the normal allowable WHO limits, indicating higher possibilities of health risks if continuously consumed. MTF values were found higher than 1 for ladyfinger and green pepper for Pb intake and pumpkin for Mn intake. The current study suggests the continuous monitoring of soil, irrigation water and agricultural products to prevent heavy metals concentration beyond allowable limits, in the food chain. Thus, concrete preventive measures must be taken to reduce heavy metal accumulation through wastewater irrigation to protect both human and animal health in the study area of Mingora Swat Pakistan.

The quantification of the influencing factors for spatial and temporal variations in surface water quality in recent ten years of the Huaihe River Basin, China

Temporal and spatial variations in river water quality and the factors influencing such variations are important basis and prerequisites for identifying pollution sources and improving river water environment. Monthly data for 22 indicators at 485 surface water quality (SWQ) monitoring sites (46,560 groups) in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) from 2011 to 2018 were analyzed. This paper assessed temporal and spatial changes in SWQ in the HRB and identified the main factors influencing the changes and each factor's contribution to the changes. The five-day biological oxygen demand, permanganate index, fluoride, ammonium nitrogen, and total phosphorus were the main pollutants. Spatial cluster analysis indicated that the HRB could be divided by SWQ into areas I-IV from light to heavy pollution. Areas I and IV were nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients pollution, and areas II and III were heavy metals and organic pollution. Area IV (poor SWQ) locates mainly north of the Huaihe mainstream with annual average rainfall ≤ 640 mm. SWQ in the HRB has been improving for two decades, with an inflection point in 2015 between 2011 and 2018, and rainfall change is an important factor for the inflection point. The urbanization rate, industrial water consumption, and rainfall were the key factors influencing SWQ changes in the watershed with significant hydrological zonation, with urbanization rate and rainfall increased, industrial water consumption decreased, the SWQ was gradually improved. The key factors contributing to SWQ changes in the future will be the sewage treatment rate and rainfall changes caused by natural variations.

Spatial and physicochemical assessment of groundwater quality in the urban coastal region of Sri Lanka

Rising sea levels, groundwater exploitation, and urbanization were the primary causes of seawater intrusion, exerting pressure on coastal aquifers. In Sri Lanka's urban coastal region, a comprehensive physicochemical description of groundwater has yet to be identified. Therefore, the objectives of this research were to (a) use a Geographic Information System (GIS) to designate spatial distribution of various water physicochemical characteristics, (b) detect "suitable" groundwater zones for drinking, and (c) estimate groundwater quality by developing a groundwater quality index (GWQI) in Sri Lanka's urban coastal region. The physiochemical parameters of 18 groundwater samples [pH, electrical conductivity (EC), turbidity, total dissolved solids (TDS), Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^-, and HCO₃^-] were studied in terms of their spatial and temporal variation. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and Sri Lankan Standard Institution (SLS), EC levels in 11% of samples were above the acceptable range, while turbidity levels in 22% of samples were above the acceptable range. Water was consumable in 77.78% of the locations and unsatisfactory in 22.22%. The main hydrochemical facies detected in groundwater samples were Na⁺- Cl^- and the mixed Ca²⁺- Mg²⁺- Cl^- face, which indicated carbonate dissolution and weathering of silicate minerals and the main mechanism controlling the water chemistry in the study area is water-rock interaction. Based on daily water consumption, it was discovered that the HQ is greater than one, in 61% of males, 78% of females, and 89% of children, indicating a health hazard. Furthermore, groundwater quality in the study region is deteriorating due to significant coastal erosion, making it critical to maintain a comprehensive groundwater management strategy to promote sustainable water consumption.

Geospatial assessment of water quality using principal components analysis (PCA) and water quality index (WQI) in Basho Valley, Gilgit Baltistan (Northern Areas of Pakistan)

Public health quality in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) is at threat due to multiple water-borne diseases. Anthropogenic activities are accelerating the burden of pollution load on the glacio-fluvial streams and surface water resources of Basho Valley in Skardu district of GB. The present research has investigated the drinking water quality of the Basho Valley that is being used for domestic purposes. The study also comprehends public health status by addressing the basis drinking water quality parameters. A total of 23 water samples were collected and then analyzed to elucidate the current status of physico-chemical, metals, and microbial parameters. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied and three principal components were obtained accounting 53.04% of the total variance, altogether. PCA identified that metallic and microbial parameters are the major factor to influence the water quality of the valley. Meanwhile, water quality index (WQI) was also computed and it was observed that WQI of the valley is characterized as excellent in terms of physico-chemical characteristics; however, metals and microbial WQI shows most of the samples are unfit for drinking purpose. Spatial distribution is also interpolated using the Inverse distance weight (IDW) to anticipate the results of mean values of parameters and WQI scores. The study concludes that water quality is satisfactory in terms of physico-chemical characteristics; however, analysis of metals shows that the concentrations of copper (Cu) (0.40 ± 0.16 mg/L), lead (Pb) (0.24 ± 0.10 mg/L), zinc (Zn) (6.77 ± 27.1 mg/L), manganese (Mn) (0.19 ± 0.05), and molybdenum (Mo) (0.07 ± 0.02 mg/L) are exceeding the maximum permissible limit as set in the WHO guidelines for drinking water. Similarly, the results of the microbial analysis indicate that the water samples are heavily contaminated with fecal pollution (TCC, TFC, and TFS > 3 MPN/100 mL). On the basis of PCA, WQI, and IDW, the main sources of pollution are most likely to be concluded as the anthropogenic activities including incoming pollution load from upstream channels. A few underlying sources by natural process of weathering and erosion may also cause release of metals in surface and groundwater. This study recommends ensuring public health with regular monitoring and assessment of water resources in the valley.

Hydrogeochemistry, identification of hydrogeochemical evolution mechanisms, and assessment of groundwater quality in the southwestern Ordos Basin, China

Understanding the evolution process of hydrogeochemistry and groundwater quality is essential for water supply and health in the southwestern Ordos Basin, where groundwater is a vital source for drinking. This study systematically illustrates the hydrogeochemical characteristics and evolution mechanism based on the groundwater samples (n = 67) collected from Loess area by integrating multivariate statistical methods and hydrogeochemical methods. Furthermore, the entropy water quality index (EWQI) and water quality indices combined with spatial analysis were employed to evaluate the suitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes and analyze the spatial variation of water quality. The hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis classified groundwater dataset into four clusters and four components which were examined using a Piper diagram and Gibbs diagram, representing different hydrogeochemical characteristics and controlling factors. Based on results, the groundwater chemistry was characterized by representative water types: freshwater (cluster 1, cluster 2), low salinity (half of cluster 3), high salinity (half of cluster 3, cluster 4), and the main controlling factors of hydrogeochemistry revealed by Gibbs diagram were evaporation crystallization (cluster 3, cluster 4) and water-rock interactions (cluster 1, cluster 2). Moreover, the Gaillardet diagram, chloro-alkaline indices, binary diagram, and saturation index further comprehensively illustrate that the silicate and evaporite weathering, ion exchange, dissolution of halite, gypsum, and anhydrite are responsible for hydrogeochemical process. Based on EWQI and ArcGIS, the groundwater quality is categorized as excellent (47.0%), good (31.8%), medium (4.5%), poor (6.1%), and extremely poor (10.6%) types, and the quality in the south of the study area is better than north. Additionally, the USSL diagram shows that most of samples belong to C3S1 (high-salinity hazard and low-sodium hazard) and C2S1 (medium-salinity hazard and low-sodium hazard), and Wilcox diagram shows that 77.2% of samples are suitable for irrigation.

Assessment of water quality condition and spatiotemporal patterns in selected wetlands of Punjab, India

Wetlands are one of the most productive aquatic ecosystems on earth, and their water quality is an indicative of their suitability for maintaining various ecosystem services. In this study, different statistical techniques and water quality index (WQI) were employed to access the status and spatiotemporal patterns in water quality of seven selected (two natural and five manmade) wetlands of Punjab. The results revealed that the status of water quality in the selected wetlands was between good and poor during studied seasons (summer, monsoon, and winter) of year 2019. The principal component analysis identified three groups of wetlands with distinct water quality characteristics with spatial patterns: Kahnuwan Chhamb and Keshopur Miani having nearly similar values of pH, total dissolve salts, electrical conductivity, chemical oxygen demand, total alkalinity, bicarbonate and ammonium content; Ropar, Kanjli, and Harike having higher value of nutrients than the other wetlands; and Ranjit Sagar and Nangal with low value of measured water quality characteristics. Further, analysis of variance revealed that all analyzed water quality parameters showed temporal patterns in water quality except water pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, and phosphate content. This comparative study enhanced our knowledge about the spatiotemporal patterns in water quality and in the future will be helpful to the policymakers and concerned authorities for developing better water quality management strategies for these wetlands.

Prediction modeling of potentially toxic elements' hydrogeopollution using an integrated Q-mode HCs and ANNs machine learning approach in SE Nigeria

Machine learning techniques have proven to be very useful in environmental and engineering assessments, including water quality studies. This is because they have flexible linear and nonlinear forecasting functions that can efficiently and reliably estimate measurable and continuous variables. The aim of this paper was to classify the water quality and also predict potentially toxic anions (PTAs; e.g., Cl, SO₄, HCO₃, and NO₃) and potentially toxic heavy metals (PTHMs; e.g., Fe, Zn, Ni, Cr, and Pb) in water resources in Ojoto and its surroundings, Nigeria. Q-mode hierarchical clusters (HCs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were integrated to achieve the research objectives. Prior to the HCs and ANNs modeling, correlation-, unrotated principal component-, and varimax-rotated factor analyses were performed to flag the level of associations between the input water quality variables. With respect to pH, two water quality cluster groups were identified. However, three and four cluster groups were identified based on the PTAs and PTHMs concentrations, respectively. Four ANN models (two for each group) were used for predicting the PTAs and PTHMs in the waters resources. Using coefficient of determination (R²) and AUC (area under curve) values and direct comparison of parity plots, the performance and accuracy of the ANN models were substantiated. Overall, the results obtained reveal that the proposed ANN models suitably predicted the concentrations of the PTAs and PTHMs. Thus, this paper provides useful information for better monitoring, management, and protection of the water resources. However, more modeling studies are encouraged to validate and/or improve the findings of the current work.

Evaluation of Groundwater Using an Integrated Approach of Entropy Weight and Stochastic Simulation: A Case Study in East Region of Beijing

Groundwater is an important source of water in Beijing. Hydrochemical composition and water quality are the key factors to determine the availability of groundwater. Therefore, an improved integrated weight water quality index approach (IWQI) combining the entropy weight method and the stochastic simulation method is proposed. Through systematic investigation of groundwater chemical composition in different periods, using a hydrogeochemical diagram, multivariate statistics and spatial interpolation analysis, the spatial evolution characteristics and genetic mechanism of groundwater chemistry are discussed. The results show that the groundwater in the study area is weakly alkaline and low mineralized water. The south part of the study area showed higher concentrations of total dissolved solids, total hardness and NO3--N in the dry season and wet season, and the main hydrochemical types are HCO3--Ca and HCO3--Ca-Mg. The natural source mechanism of the groundwater chemical components in Chaoyang District includes rock weathering, dissolution and cation exchange, while the human-made sources are mainly residents and industrial activities. Improved IWQI evaluation results indicate that water quality decreases from southwest to northeast along groundwater flow path. The water quality index (WQI) method cannot reflect the trend of groundwater. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the improved IWQI method could describe the overall water quality reliably, accurately and stably.

Assessing the fluvial system resilience of the river Bacchiglione to point sources of pollution in Northeast Italy: a novel Water Resilience Index (WRI) approach

Modelling and evaluating the resilience of environmental systems has recently raised significant interest among both practitioners and researchers. However, it has not yet been used to measure the absorption and recovery capacities of a river subject to varying levels of pollution due to natural and anthropic sources of contamination within the basin. Fast worldwide population growth and climate change are contributing to an increased degradation status in surface water bodies and to a decreased efficiency of their natural self-purification processes. Decision-makers are, therefore, more and more encouraged to implement alternative management strategies focussed on improving the system resilience to current and future perturbations. To this end, a novel Water Resilience Index (WRI), based on different quality parameters, was developed, and it is here proposed to estimate the ability of the river Bacchiglione, located in Northeast Italy, absorb continuous and unpredictable changes due to potential effects of point sources of pollution, that is, urban and industrial wastewater, and still maintain its vital functions. This new index is integrated in a mathematical model, which represents the river as an influence diagram where the nodes are the gauged stations and the arcs are the fluvial reaches among the stations, to identify the river reaches in need of resilience improvement. In addition, in order to simplify the analytical procedure and lower the costs and times of the monitoring activities, a principal component analysis is also used, as it is able to reduce the number of the water quality parameters to be collected from the sampling stations, distributed along the main river, and thus to calculate a minimum WRI. The good agreement between the results obtained by both the original and minimum WRI shows the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. This approach could be applied to all basins with the same issues, and not just in the Italian case study here analysed, as it might be a valid tool to plan interventions and mitigation actions, protecting the resource from pollution risks and achieving environmental quality and Sustainable Development Goals both in the water bodies and their surrounding territories. In addition, this strategy could be integrated in the existing models supporting local decision-makers and administrators, aiming at increasing the resilience of urban and rural areas to pollution phenomena and facilitating the development of effective policies to reduce the impacts of global change on water quality.

Application of water quality index and chemometric methods on contamination assessment in the shallow aquifer, Ganges River basin, India

Water quality index and chemometric methods were employed to assess the groundwater quality and contamination sources in the upper Ganges basin (UGB) and lower Ganges basin (LGB) as groundwater is a sole source for drinking, domestic and agricultural uses. Groundwater samples were collected from UGB (n = 44) and LGB (n = 26) and analysed for physicochemical parameters. Groundwater in this basin is desirable (51%) to permissible (TDS < 1000 mg/l, 96%) classes for drinking. Chemical constituents in the groundwater are lower than the maximum allowable limit recommended by the WHO for drinking except K. Drinking water quality index (DWQI) values reveal that groundwater belongs to excellent (89%) and good (10%) classes. However, the high concentrations of Fe and Mn in 61 and 77% of samples, respectively, restrict the usage for drinking according to USEPA recommendations. Both LGB and UGB groundwater in shallow wells have elevated concentration of TDS, EC and other ions (Ca²⁺, Cl^- and SO₄^2- in LGB; major ions, NO₃^-, PO₄^3-, F^-, Fe and Mn in UGB) and imply the influences of anthropogenic activities. Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis reiterated that groundwater quality is affected by the anthropogenic activities as well as mineral dissolutions (carbonate and silicate minerals). This study highlighted that the infiltration of wastewater from various contamination sources likely triggered the dissolution of the minerals in the vadose zone that resulted in the accumulation of ions in the shallow aquifer. An effective management plan is essential to protect this shallow aquifer.

Influence of regional climatic on the hydrogeochemistry of a tropical river basin-a study from the Walawe river basin of Sri Lanka

The Walawe river basin is one of the important watersheds in Sri Lanka subjected to water scarcity due to intensive exploitation for irrigation and domestic purposes. The groundwater resource in the basin is under-explored for its capacity to sustain a continuous supply of water for future demand while facing the growing climate change challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the behavior of groundwater in the Walawe river basin that flows through two major climatic zones in Sri Lanka. The study approach includes hydrogeochemical and stable isotope analysis in order to differentiate the geochemical evolution of groundwater in the basin with respect to climatic factors. Water samples from thirty-eight (38) deep wells (> 20 m), 25 shallow wells, and 14 surface water bodies were collected and measured for their major ions, and isotope ratios of δ²H and δ¹⁸O. The results indicated a clear difference in the geochemistry of groundwater between the two climatic zones of the basin. The dry zone area was characterized by a higher content of dissolved minerals as compared to that in the wet zone area. Silicate weathering, calcite dissolution, and ion exchange processes were found to be the main control of groundwater geochemistry in the basin. The Ca-HCO₃-type water was found to be the predominant water type. The isotope data suggested that the groundwater in the study area is recharged mainly from the northeast monsoon rain. Isotope characteristics also suggested that direct infiltration is prominent in the wet zone regions, whereas modifications of shallow groundwater by evaporation were dominated in the dry zone areas. The findings of the study suggest that water quality management in the dry zone areas of the basin is critical for the future sustainability of the water resource of the basin.

Monitoring and evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of the water quality of a stretch of the Bhagirathi-Hugli River, West Bengal, India, using geospatial technology and integrated statistical methods

Water quality is a critical environmental issue because all forms of life depend on the water. The present study primarily focused on the spatiotemporal trends of water quality in a section of the Bhagirathi-Hugli River, West Bengal, using geospatial technology and integrated statistical methods. For this purpose, 83 samples of 7 water parameters were analysed and compared them with Indian Standards (IS 2004), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2001) and World Health Organization (WHO 1993) for the protection of aquatic life and human consumption. Correlation, box and whisker plots, paired sample t test, water quality index (WQI), cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied as an integrated multivariate statistical approach to understanding the nature of water quality. Pollution sources were identified by PCA indicating different origins both naturally and anthropogenic sources. The box and whisker plots displayed the significantly spatiotemporal variations and concentration of the variables. The paired sample t test identified that the surface water quality varied significantly between the seasons with significant value p < 0.05. Cluster analysis grouped 83 monitoring sites into 4 clusters to identify the pollution status such as low, moderate, high and very high pollution sites. Principal component analysis confirmed that the first three PCs with eigenvalues are higher than 1 contributing 90.83% of total variability for various parameters. The conductivity, total dissolved solids (TDS), salt and pH were expressively influenced by the anthropogenic effect while the temperature, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) and dissolved oxygen (DO) were affected by seasonal factors. Results of WQI ranged from 45.04 to 83.79, and an average value was 69.55 with 69% samples representing poor water quality for drinking and domestic purposes. It also indicates that the water quality of rural sites was better than industrial and urban sites in both seasons and also shows that it was better for the duration of the post-monsoon than pre-monsoon.

Predicting water quality during urbanization based on a causality-based input variable selection method modified back-propagation neural network

Rapid urbanization has been recognized as the primary cause of deteriorating water quality. Thus, it is crucial to take into account urbanization in water quality forecasting. The present study aims at finding the causal relationship between urbanization and water quality, and then predicting water quality based on this causality. For this purpose, nine urbanization indicators and 12 water quality parameters from 2006 to 2018 in Nanjing were collected as urbanization and water quality indices. Correlation and path analyses were firstly used to identify causal relationships between urbanization and water quality indices. Based on these causal relationships, comprehensive water quality indicators and their correlated urbanization parameters were input into a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict water quality. In the improved BPNN, the R² of the training sets were all greater than 0.99, and those of the test sets were all greater than 0.76, demonstrating that the optimized model is able to predict the water quality with reasonable accuracy. It also showed that the overall water quality in Nanjing will remain good from 2019 to 2028, which means that, when undergoing future urbanization process, water quality is not necessarily negatively affected. The transfer of industrial structure can have a positive influence on water quality. After 2028, the biological water environment index remained in a good state but the volatile phenol index continued to increase, making it a potential threat to future water quality. Industrial wastewater and fertilizer usage, as the primary sources of volatile phenols, should be prioritized for continued governmental control and monitoring into the future. This study provides new insight into the relationship between urbanization and water quality, and the presented models can assist in future-proofing water management strategies.