How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review

Temporal and Spatial Effects of Extreme Drought Events on Human Epidemics over Ancient China in 1784-1787 CE

Extreme drought events can impact human health, notably triggering epidemics that impose significant global health and economic burdens. Understanding these effects and developing response strategies is crucial. However, there is limited epidemiological evidence on how climate change influenced ancient epidemics before large-scale urbanization and frequent population movements. In this study, we utilized the Reconstructed East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series (REACHES) climate database and the self-constructed ancient Chinese epidemics database to examine extreme drought events in ancient China from 1784-1787 CE. We analyzed factors like grain prices, population density, and socioeconomic conditions to explore the temporal and spatial mechanism and influence the degree of extreme drought events on epidemics outbreaks. The results show that there is a clear positive link between drought and the spread of epidemics, with a notable one-year lag effect of drought. Drought impacts epidemics directly and indirectly through locust plague, famine, crop failure, and social turmoil, with famine being the most crucial factor. Official disaster management can mitigate epidemics. This study intuitively shows the relationship between extreme drought events and epidemics in ancient China and offering insights into the climate change-epidemic relationship. Placing the conclusions of this paper in a broader context has global implications, providing historical experience for polycrisis and modern challenges.

Time to invest in cholera

The recent surge in cholera cases globally calls for urgent evaluation of current approaches to prevention and control of the disease. Malawi was one of the worst affected countries in 2022-2023 with the highest number of deaths due to cholera in the world. In this personal view, we look at Malawi as a case example to illustrate how current approaches lack sufficient investment. We review the history of cholera in Malawi and compare previous outbreaks to the 2022/23 outbreak. We discuss contributing factors to the outbreak including a lack of investment in water, sanitation and hygiene (both historically and currently), human resource constraints, and the market structures which make accessing oral cholera vaccine challenging both in the midst of an ongoing outbreak and as a preventative approach. We call for international action to address the economic and structural challenges underlying cholera persistence and propose solutions to prevent future epidemics and to eliminate cholera as a public health threat.

Insights into the ecological and climate crisis: Emerging infections threatening human health

The Anthropocene era is marked by unprecedented human-induced alterations to the environment, resulting in a climate emergency and widespread ecological deterioration. A staggering number of up to one million species of plants and animals are in danger of becoming extinct, which includes over 10 % of insect species and 40 % of plant species. Unrestrained release of greenhouse gases, widespread deforestation, intense agricultural practices, excessive fishing, and alterations in land use have exceeded the ecological boundaries that were once responsible for humanity's wellbeing. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), existing policies are expected to result in a minimum rise in global temperature of +2 °C, with more recent assessments indicating a potential increase of up to +2.9 °C. The effects of climate change and ecological degradation on the formation of diseases are complex and have multiple aspects. Deforestation diminishes biodiversity and compels wildlife to come into greater proximity with humans, hence promoting the transmission of zoonotic diseases. Climate change intensifies these impacts by modifying the habitats of disease carrying organisms, resulting in the expansion of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and Zika virus into previously unaffected areas. Furthermore, climate change amplifies the occurrence and severity of extreme weather phenomena, which undermines water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices. This creates an environment conducive to the transmission of waterborne diseases such as cholera in densely populated resettlement camps. Climate-induced disasters contribute to the complexity of epidemiological landscapes, exacerbating antimicrobial resistance and posing a threat to modern medical advancements. This narrative review investigates the complex connections between the ecological-climatic crises and emerging illnesses, offering an overview on how environmental changes contribute to outbreaks that pose a substantial threat to public health.

Vibrio cholerae: Understanding a persistent pathogen in Sub-Saharan Africa and the East Mediterranean Region

Vibrio cholerae remains a significant public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa and the East Mediterranean Region, where recurrent outbreaks are driven by inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure, climatic variability, and socio-political instability. This review explores the persistence of the pathogen in these regions, examining its epidemiology, environmental reservoirs, and genomic adaptations that enhance its survival and transmission. We highlight the impact of antimicrobial resistance and the role of climate change in cholera dynamics. Furthermore, we discuss current prevention and control strategies, including advancements in oral cholera vaccines, genomic surveillance, and microbiome-targeted interventions. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that integrates sustainable sanitation improvements, strengthened disease surveillance, and innovative vaccination strategies. Understanding the persistence of V. cholerae in these high-risk regions is critical for developing effective, long-term mitigation strategies to reduce cholera morbidity and mortality.

An assessment of the progress made in the implementation of the regional framework for cholera prevention and control in the WHO African region

High-burden cholera outbreaks, spreading beyond the traditional cholera-endemic countries, have been reported since 2021 in the WHO African region. Member states in the region have committed to the global goal of cholera elimination by 2030. To track progress towards this goal, WHO-African countries adopted a regional cholera prevention and control framework in 2018. This study reports on 27 countries' 5-year achievements in implementing the cholera regional framework for cholera prevention, and control. Data collected through a web-based self-assessment tool were analysed and visualised through Power BI. Data were provided by national teams of experts on cholera based on the milestones of the framework. Countries' specific progress and regional progress were calculated. The overall regional progress was 53%, ranging from 19% in Mauritania to 76% in Ethiopia. Out of the 27 countries, 3 had made good progress while 14 had fair and 10 had insufficient progress. At the regional level, 4 milestones were on track, 7 were fair and 10 had insufficient progress. Cholera hot spot mapping had the highest score at 85%, while development of investment cases for cholera control scored the lowest at 14%. Although appreciable progress was noted in some milestones, the progress against critical milestones, including for water, sanitation and hygiene, that form the bedrock of cholera control, was insufficient. Effective implementation of the cholera prevention and control framework anchored on strong government commitment and ownership is essential to curb the current trend of cholera outbreaks and improve the likelihood of cholera elimination by 2030 in Africa.

Cholera rages in Africa and the Middle East: A narrative review on challenges and solutions

Background and Aim

Cholera is a life-threatening infectious disease that is still one of the most common acute watery diarrheal diseases in the world today. Acute diarrhea and severe dehydration brought on by cholera can cause hypovolemic shock, which can be fatal in minutes. Without competent clinical therapy, the rate of case fatality surpasses 50%. The purpose of this review was to highlight cholera challenges in Africa and the Middle East and explain the reasons for why this region is currently a fertile environment for cholera. We investigated cholera serology, epidemiology, and the geographical distribution of cholera in Africa and the Middle East in 2022 and 2023. We reviewed detection methods, such as rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and treatments, such as antibiotics and phage therapy. Finally, this review explored oral cholera vaccines (OCVs), and the vaccine shortage crisis.

Methods

We carried out a systematic search in multiple databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Embase, for studies on cholera using the following keywords: ((Cholera) OR (Vibrio cholera) and (Coronavirus) OR (COVID-19) OR (SARS-CoV2) OR (The Middle East) OR (Africa)).

Results and Conclusions

Cholera outbreaks have increased dramatically, mainly in Africa and many Middle Eastern countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the attention devoted to cholera and disrupted diagnosis and treatment services, as well as vaccination initiatives. Most of the cholera cases in Africa and the Middle East were reported in Malawi and Syria, respectively, in 2022. RDTs are effective in the early detection of cholera epidemics, especially with limited advanced resources, which is the case in much of Africa. By offering both direct and indirect protection, expanding the use of OCV will significantly reduce the burden of current cholera outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera epidemics in Ethiopia: 2015-2021

Since the onset of the seventh cholera pandemic, Ethiopia has been affected by recurrent epidemics. However, the epidemiology of cholera in this country remains poorly understood. This study aimed to describe cholera outbreak characteristics in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021. During this period, Ethiopia experienced four epidemic waves. The first wave involved nationwide outbreaks during the second half of 2016 followed by outbreaks predominantly affecting Somali Region in 2017. The second wave primarily affected Tigray and Afar Regions. During the third wave, multiple smaller-scale outbreaks occurred during 2019. The fourth wave was limited to Bale Zone (Oromia Region) in 2021. Overall, a north to south shift was observed over the course of the study period. Major cholera transmission factors included limited access to safe water and sanitation facilities. Severe weather events (drought and flooding) appear to aggravate cholera diffusion. Cholera transmission between Ethiopia and nearby countries (Kenya and Somalia), likely plays a major role in regional cholera dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first understanding of recent spatiotemporal cholera dynamics in Ethiopia to inform cholera control and elimination strategies.

Climate Change, Emerging Vector-Borne Illnesses, and Anesthetic Considerations

As a result of the widespread prevalence of anesthetic usage, anesthesia-related complications are well studied, ranging from benign postoperative nausea and vomiting to potentially fatal complications, such as paralysis, malignant hyperthermia, and death. However, one intersection that still needs further analysis is the relationship between vector-borne illnesses (VBIs) and anesthetic complications. With the advent of climate change and global warming, what were previously endemic vectors have spread far beyond their typical regions, resulting in the spread of VBI. As the incidence of VBIs rapidly increases in the United States, operations for diagnostic testing, and thus the identification and treatments of these VBIs, have significantly diminished. A literature review was conducted to analyze case reports of patients with VBIs and anesthetic concerns with sources from PubMed and Google Scholar databases, and a wide range of complications were found.

Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

ABSTRACT

Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.

Human exposure risk assessment for infectious diseases due to temperature and air pollution: an overview of reviews

Air pollution and global temperature change are expected to affect infectious diseases. Air pollution usually causes inflammatory response and disrupts immune defense system, while temperature mainly exacerbates the effect of vectors on humans. Yet to date overview of systematic reviews assessing the exposure risk of air pollutants and temperature on infectious diseases is unavailable. This article aims to fill this research gap. PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were searched. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses investigated the exposure risk of pollutants or temperature on infectious diseases were included. Two investigators screened literature, extracted data and performed the risk of bias assessments independently. A total of 23 articles met the inclusion criteria, which 3 (13%) were "low" quality and 20 (87%) were "critically low" quality. COVID-19 morbidity was associated with long-term exposure PM2.5 (RR = 1.056 per 1 [Formula: see text], 95% CI: 1.039-1.072) and NO2 (RR = 1.042 per 1 [Formula: see text], 95% CI: 1.017-1.068). In addition, for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the morbidity risk of dengue increased 13% (RR = 1.130 per 1 °C, 95% CI: 1.120-1.150), infectious diarrhea increased 8% (RR = 1.080 per 1 °C, 95% CI: 1.050-1.200), and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) increased 5% (RR = 1.050 per 1 °C, 95% CI: 1.020-1.080). In conclusion, PM2.5 and NO2 increased the risk of COVID-19 and temperatures were associated with dengue, infectious diarrhoea and HFMD morbidity. Moreover, the exposure risk of temperature on COVID-19 was recommended to be further explored.

Simulation of the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence using artificial neural networks (ANNs)

Climate change can increase the spread of infectious diseases and public health concerns. Malaria is one of the endemic infectious diseases of Iran, whose transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. The effect of climate change on malaria in the southeastern Iran from 2021 to 2050 was simulated by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Gamma test (GT) and general circulation models (GCMs) were used to determine the best delay time and to generate the future climate model under two distinct scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). To simulate the various impacts of climate change on malaria infection, ANNs were applied using daily collected data for 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). The future climate of the study area will be hotter by 2050. The simulation of malaria cases elucidated that there is an intense increasing trend in malaria cases under the RCP8.5 scenario until 2050, with the highest number of infections occurring in the warmer months. Rainfall and maximum temperature were identified as the most influential input variables. Optimum temperatures and increased rainfall provide a suitable environment for the transmission of parasites and cause an intense increase in the number of infection cases with a delay of approximately 90 days. ANNs were introduced as a practical tool for simulating the impact of climate change on the prevalence, geographic distribution, and biological activity of malaria and for estimating the future trend of the disease in order to adopt protective measures in endemic areas.

Cholera Dynamics and the Emergence of Pandemic Vibrio cholerae

Cholera is a severe diarrheal disease caused by the aquatic bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Interestingly, to date, only one major clade has emerged to cause pandemic disease in humans: the clade that encompasses the strains from the O1 and O139 serogroups. In this chapter, we provide a comprehensive perspective on the virulence factors and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) associated with the emergence of pandemic V. cholerae strains and highlight novel findings such as specific genomic background or interactions between MGEs that explain their confined distribution. Finally, we discuss pandemic cholera dynamics contextualizing them within the evolution of the bacterium.

Combating cholera by building predictive capabilities for pathogenic Vibrio cholerae in Yemen

Cholera remains a global public health threat in regions where social vulnerabilities intersect with climate and weather processes that impact infectious Vibrio cholerae. While access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities limit cholera outbreaks, sheer cost of building such infrastructure limits the ability to safeguard the population. Here, using Yemen as an example where cholera outbreak was reported in 2016, we show how predictive abilities for forecasting risk, employing sociodemographical, microbiological, and climate information of cholera, can aid in combating disease outbreak. An epidemiological analysis using Bradford Hill Criteria was employed in near-real-time to understand a predictive model's outputs and cholera cases in Yemen. We note that the model predicted cholera risk at least four weeks in advance for all governorates of Yemen with overall 72% accuracy (varies with the year). We argue the development of anticipatory decision-making frameworks for climate modulated diseases to design intervention activities and limit exposure of pathogens preemptively.

Lessons from farmers' adaptive practices to climate change in China: a systematic literature review

Due to the vulnerability and exposure of agriculture, farmers' adaptive strategies to climate change are important to food security and sustainable environment development. However, a systematic review is still absent, though there are many studies about farmers' adaptations to climate change, and few studies discuss their potential impacts on climate change. This article analyses farmers' adaptation strategies and their heterogeneities across regions in China via a systemic literature review. Then we also discuss possible driving factors of these adaptations and their potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. We follow the updated Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2020) guidelines to identify and screen publications. A total of 448 relevant records were identified from the Web of Science, Elsevier ScienceDirect, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We include peer-reviewed publications focusing on farmers engaged in crop farming in China, with survey data and specific adoption ratio analysis of adaptations to climate change. After screening, 27 articles were finally analysed. Our results show that crop variety management, rescheduling farming, increasing production inputs, increasing irrigation, and crop structure management are prevalent strategies reported in the existing literature. However, sustainable adaptations such as improving farmland's ecological environment and agronomic water-saving irrigation gain less attention. Besides, farmers in northern China adapt to climate change more actively compared to their counterparts in southern China. Moreover, some adaptations with high adoption ratios, such as increased chemical inputs, might increase greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate climate change. Our findings have important implications for food security and sustainable agricultural development.

Are better existing WASH practices in urban slums associated with a lower long-term risk of severe cholera? A prospective cohort study with 4 years of follow-up in Mirpur, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between existing household water quality, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) practices and severe cholera risk in a dense urban slum where cholera is highly endemic.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We assembled a large prospective cohort within a cluster randomised trial evaluating the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine. Our dynamic cohort population (n=193 576) comprised individuals living in the 'non-intervention' clusters of the trial, and were followed over 4 years. This study was conducted in a dense urban slum community of Dhaka, Bangladesh and cholera surveillance was undertaken in 12 hospitals serving the study area.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

First severe cholera episode detected during follow-up period.

METHODS

We applied a machine learning algorithm on a training subpopulation (n=96 943) to develop a binary ('better', 'not better') composite WASH variable predictive of severe cholera. The WASH rule was evaluated for performance in a separate validation subpopulation (n=96 633). Afterwards, we used Cox regression models to evaluate the association between 'better' WASH households and severe cholera risk over 4 years in the entire study population.

RESULTS

The 'better' WASH rule found that water quality and access were the most significant factors associated with severe cholera risk. Members of 'better' WASH households, constituting one-third of the population, had a 47% reduced risk of severe cholera (95% CI: 29 to 69; p<0.001), after adjusting for covariates. The protective association between living in a 'better' WASH household and severe cholera persisted in all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Salutary existing household WASH practices were associated with a significantly reduced long-term risk of severe cholera in an urban slum of Dhaka. These findings suggest that WASH adaptations already practised in the community may be important for developing and implementing effective and sustainable cholera control programmes in similar settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This article is a re-analysis of data from a cluster randomized trial; can be found on ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01339845.

Temperature and risk of infectious diarrhea: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Infectious diarrhea (ID) is an intestinal infectious disease including cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, bacterial and amebic dysentery, and other infectious diarrhea. There are many studies that have explored the relationship between ambient temperature and the spread of infectious diarrhea, but the results are inconsistent. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the impact of temperature on the incidence of ID. This study was based on the PRISMA statement to report this systematic review. We conducted literature searches from CNKI, VIP databases, CBM, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and other databases. The number registered in PROSPERO is CRD42021225472. After searching a total of 4915 articles in the database and references, 27 studies were included. The number of people involved exceeded 7.07 million. The overall result demonstrated when the temperature rises, the risk of infectious diarrhea increases significantly (RR_cumulative=1.42, 95%CI: 1.07-1.88, RR_single-day=1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.14). Subgroup analysis found the effect of temperature on the bacillary dysentery group (RR_cumulative=1.85, 95%CI: 1.48-2.30) and unclassified diarrhea groups (RR_cumulative=1.18, 95%CI: 0.59-2.34). The result of the single-day effect subgroup analysis was similar to the result of the cumulative effect. And the sensitivity analysis proved that the results were robust. This systematic review and meta-analysis support that temperature will increase the risk of ID, which is helpful for ID prediction and early warning in the future.