Multiplication of Tumor Volume by Two Tumor Markers Is a Post-Resection Prognostic Predictor for Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Cluster analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis using preoperative alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin levels: a multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide and is characterized by high recurrence rates after curative resection. The tumor markers des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) are crucial for HCC diagnosis and prognosis. However, their roles in the modern era of HCC epidemiology require reevaluation.

METHODS

This multi-institutional retrospective study analyzed 1515 patients who underwent hepatectomy for primary HCC. Patients were classified into 4 clusters using k-means analysis based on preoperative DCP and AFP levels. Clinicopathologic characteristics, overall survival (OS), and recurrence rate (RR) were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) comparisons.

RESULTS

Cluster 3 (concurrent elevations of DCP and AFP) had the poorest 5-year OS (52.8%) and the highest RR (79.3%), whereas cluster 4 (low levels of both markers) had the most favorable outcomes, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.5% and an RR of 55.7%. Cluster 1 (elevated DCP alone) was associated with larger tumors (median of 45 mm) and more frequent vascular invasion (43%) than cluster 2 (elevated AFP alone, median tumor size of 24 mm, and vascular invasion of 36%). DCP was a stronger predictor of 5-year OS in patients with preserved liver function (AUROC, 0.63), whereas AFP was more effective in stratifying RR in patients with impaired liver function (AUROC, 0.57). Non-B, non-C hepatitis (NBNC)-related HCC exhibited a distinct biomarker profile, with an elevated DCP level correlating with a higher 5-year RR (67%) than other etiologies.

CONCLUSION

Our study introduces tumor marker clustering as a novel analytical approach, providing a nuanced understanding of AFP and DCP's combined utility in predicting prognosis and recurrence. Our findings highlight the independent and complementary roles of these biomarkers, particularly in NBNC-related HCC and in cases with impaired liver function. AFP and DCP remain crucial tools for recurrence risk assessment, guiding personalized management strategies, such as surveillance, neoadjuvant therapies, and tailored postoperative interventions.

Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry

Compared to overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study developed and validated a nomogram-based dynamic prognostic model to predict the conditional survival estimates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through an analysis of a nationwide cancer registry. This retrospective cohort study included 2492 patients with HCC registered in the Korea Liver Cancer Registry. Patients underwent hepatic resection (HR) from 2008 to 2017, were followed up until December 2019, and were divided into development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine the risk factors for conditional survival of patients who underwent HR. The patients were scored based on the Cox regression coefficients; the nomogram was predicted by calculating the survival probability with Cox model. Our dynamic prognostic model nomogram for predicting conditional overall survival demonstrated Harrell's C-index of 0.622 and 0.674 in the development and validation sets; for conditional disease-specific survival, it was 0.623 and 0.686 in the development and validation sets. The prediction power of the model is applicable in clinical practice. Factors incorporated in our nomogram included age, albumin, the ADV score, lymph node metastasis, and T stage in American Joint Commission on Cancer staging system. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict conditional survival estimates for overall survival and disease-specific survival. The proposed nomogram incorporating the ADV score presents a more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with HCC who received HR.

Early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma patients at high-risk of recurrence using the ADV score: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative recurrence is a vital reason for poor 5-year overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The ADV score is considered a parameter that can quantify HCC aggressiveness. This study aimed to identify HCC patients at high-risk of recurrence early using the ADV score.

METHODS

The medical data of consecutive HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (TFAHNJMU) and Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital (NJDTH) were retrospectively reviewed. Based on the status of microvascular invasion and the Edmondson-Steiner grade, HCC patients were divided into three groups: low-risk group (group 1: no risk factor exists), medium-risk group (group 2: one risk factor exists), and high-risk group (group 3: coexistence of two risk factors). In the training cohort (TFAHNJMU), the R package nnet was used to establish a multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model based on the ADV score to predict three risk groups. The Welch's T-test was used to compare differences in clinical variables in three predicted risk groups. NJDTH served as an external validation center. At last, the confusion matrix was developed using the R package caret to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the model.

RESULTS

350 and 405 patients from TFAHNJMU and NJDTH were included. HCC patients in different risk groups had significantly different liver function and inflammation levels. Density maps demonstrated that the ADV score could best differentiate between the three risk groups. The probability curve was plotted according to the predicted results of the multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model, and the best cut-off values of the ADV score were as follows: low-risk ≤ 3.4 log, 3.4 log < medium-risk ≤ 5.7 log, and high-risk > 5.7 log. The sensitivities of the ADV score predicting the high-risk group (group 3) were 70.2% (99/141) and 78.8% (63/80) in the training and external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The ADV score might become a valuable marker for screening patients at high-risk of HCC recurrence with a cut-off value of 5.7 log, which might help surgeons, pathologists, and HCC patients make appropriate clinical decisions.

Preoperative Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Predicts Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma as Accurately as Contrast-Enhanced MR

OBJECTIVES

Both contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (CEMR) are important imaging methods for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish a model using preoperative CEUS parameters to predict microvascular invasion (MVI) in HCC, and compare its predictive efficiency with that of CEMR model.

METHODS

A total of 93 patients with HCC (39 cases in MVI positive group and 54 cases in MVI negative group) who underwent surgery in our hospital from January 2020 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Their clinical and imaging data were collected to establish CEUS and CEMR models for predicting MVI. The predictive efficiencies of both models were compared.

RESULTS

By the univariate and multivariate regression analyses of patients' clinical information, preoperative CEUS static and dynamic images, we found that serrated edge and time to peak were independent predictors of MVI. The CEUS prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 92.3%, a specificity of 83.3%, and an accuracy of 84.6% (Az: 0.934). By analyzing the clinical and CEMR information, we found that tumor morphology, fast-in and fast-out, peritumoral enhancement, and capsule were independent predictors of MVI. The CEMR prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 97.4%, a specificity of 77.8%, and an accuracy of 83.2% (Az: 0.900). The combination of the two models achieved a sensitivity of 84.6%, a specificity of 87.0%, and an accuracy of 86.2% (Az: 0.884). There was no significant statistical difference in the areas under the ROC curve of the three models.

CONCLUSION

The CEUS model and the CEMR model have similar predictive efficiencies for MVI of HCC. CEUS is also an effective method to predict MVI before operation.

Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II: Experience to date and future directions

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer with high mortality. The realization of precision medicine in HCC relies upon efficient biomarkers. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) is an immature prothrombin with insufficient coagulation activity, overexpressing in HCC cells. Previous evidence confirmed the role of PIVKA-II in screening and diagnosing HCC. However, the increased PIVKA-II was observed not only in HCC, but also in non-HCC individuals such as vitamin K deficiency. The joint detection of PIVKA-II and other biomarkers could significantly improve diagnostic accuracy in HCC. Furthermore, PIVKA-II serves as a valuable prognostic predictor, transplantation eligibility, resectability, tumor recurrence, therapeutic efficacy, and malignant tumor behaviors. Additionally, PIVKA-II represents a potential target for agent development to establish new therapeutic strategies. Besides HCC, PIVKA-II also serves as a biomarker of vitamin K status. In this review, we assess the role of PIVKA-II in diagnosis, prediction, and treatment. Over the past decades, substantial progress has been achieved in the application of PIVKA-II. Exploration and innovation are required for further advances in the field of PIVKA-II investigation.

Donor sex and donor-recipient sex disparity do not affect hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after living donor liver transplantation

Purpose

Studies have yielded contradictory results on whether donor sex and donor-recipient sex disparity affect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). The present study assessed whether donor sex or donor-recipient sex disparity affects HCC recurrence after LDLT at a high-volume center.

Methods

This study included 772 HCC patients who underwent LDLT between January 2006 and December 2015 at Asan Medical Center. Patients were divided into 4 groups based on the sex of the donor and recipient: male-to-male (n = 490, 63.5%), male-to-female (n = 75, 9.7%), female-to-male (n = 170, 22.0%), and female-to-female (n = 37, 4.8%).

Results

Disease-free survival (DFS; P = 0.372) and overall survival (OS; P = 0.591) did not differ significantly among the 4 groups. DFS also did not differ significantly between LDLT recipients with male and female donors (P = 0.792) or between male and female recipients (P = 0.084). After patient matching with an α-FP/des-γ-carboxy prothrombin/tumor volume score cutoff of 5logs, donor-recipient sex disparity did not significantly affect DFS (P = 0.598) or OS (P = 0.777). There were also no differences in DFS in matched LDLT recipients with male and female donors (P = 0.312) or between male and female recipients (P = 0.374).

Conclusion

Neither donor sex nor donor-recipient sex disparity significantly affected posttransplant HCC recurrence.

Validation of quantitative prognostic prediction using ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: A Korea-Japan collaborative study with 9200 patients

BACKGROUND

A score derived from the concentrations of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and tumor volume (TV), called ADV score, has been shown to be prognostic of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following hepatic resection (HR) or liver transplantation.

METHODS

This multicenter, multinational validation study included 9200 patients who underwent HR from 2010 to 2017 at 10 Korean and 73 Japanese centers, and were followed up until 2020.

RESULTS

AFP, DCP, and TV showed weak correlations (ρ ≤ .463, r ≤ .189, p < .001). Disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and post-recurrence survival rates were dependent on 1.0 log and 2.0 log intervals of ADV scores (p < .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that ADV score cutoffs of 5.0 log for DFS and OS yielded the areas under the curve ≥ .577, with both being significantly prognostic of tumor recurrence and patient mortality at 3 years. ADV score cutoffs of ADV 4.0 log and 8.0 log, derived through K-adaptive partitioning method, showed higher prognostic contrasts in DFS and OS. ROC curve analysis showed that an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log was suggestive of microvascular invasion, with both microvascular invasion and an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log showing similar DFS rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This international validation study demonstrated that ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis of HCC. Prognostic prediction using ADV score can provide reliable information that can assist in planning treatment of patients with different stages of HCC and guide individualized post-resection follow-up based on the relative risk of HCC recurrence.

Quantitative Prediction of Posttransplant Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prognosis Using ADV Score: Validation with Korea-Nationwide Transplantation Registry Database

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to validate the prognostic impact of ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score) for predicting prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT).

BACKGROUND

ADV score has been reported as a prognostic surrogate biomarker of HCC following LT and hepatectomy.

METHODS

The study patients were 1599 LT recipients selected from the Korean Organ Transplantation Registry database.

RESULTS

Deceased-donor and living-donor LTs were performed in 143 and 1456 cases, respectively. Weak correlation was present among AFP, DCP, and TV. The viable HCC group showed ADV score-dependent disease-free survival (DFS) and overall patient survival (OS) rates from 1log to 10log (p<0.001). Prognosis of complete pathological response group was comparable to that of ADV score <1log (p≥0.099). ADV score cutoff of 5log (ADV-5log) for DFS and OS was obtained through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with area under the curve ≥0.705. Both ADV-5log and Milan criteria were independent risk factors for DFS and OS, and their prognostic impacts were comparable to each other. Combination of these two factors resulted in further prognostic stratification, showing hazard ratios for DFS and OS as 2.98 and 2.26 respectively for one risk factor and 7.92 and 8.19 respectively for two risk factors (p<0.001). ABO-incompatible recipients with ADV score ≥8log or two risk factors showed higher recurrence rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This validation study revealed that ADV score is a reliable surrogate biomarker for posttransplant HCC prognosis, which can be used for selecting LT candidates and guiding risk-based posttransplant follow-up surveillance.

Current status and prospect of treatments for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

Owing to its heterogeneous and highly aggressive nature, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high recurrence rate, which is a non-negligible problem despite the increasing number of available treatment options. Recent clinical trials have attempted to reduce the recurrence and develop innovative treatment options for patients with recurrent HCC. In the event of liver remnant recurrence, the currently available treatment options include repeat hepatectomy, salvage liver transplantation, tumor ablation, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, stereotactic body radiotherapy, systemic therapies, and combination therapy. In this review, we summarize the strategies to reduce the recurrence of high-risk tumors and aggressive therapies for recurrent HCC. Additionally, we discuss methods to prevent HCC recurrence and prognostic models constructed based on predictors of recurrence to develop an appropriate surveillance program.

Expression Patterns of Tumor Markers in Liver Transplant Recipients Showing Complete Pathological Response of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Complete pathological response (CPR) is achieved with various pretransplant locoregional treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to investigate pretransplant expression of HCC tumor markers in liver transplantation (LT) recipients showing CPR. For the CPR group, 166 patients were selected from a single-institution LT database. Two control groups of 332 patients without HCC and 184 patients with partial pathological response (PPR) were also selected. The model for end-stage liver disease score in the CPR group was 11.5 ± 7.7. The number of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization sessions before LT was one in 68 patients (14.0%), two in 38 patients (22.9%), and three or more in 60 patients (36.1%). A solitary non-viable tumor was identified in 120 (86.4%) of the explant livers and the largest tumor size was 2.4 ± 1.3 cm. Living-donor and deceased-donor LTs were performed in 152 (91.6%) and 14 (8.4%) patients, respectively. The median levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by Vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) measured within two weeks before LT were 4.2 ng/mL and 20 mAU/mL, respectively. These tumor marker levels were comparable to those in the no-HCC control group, but much lower than those in the PPR group (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of AFP and PIVKA-II showed no definite cutoff values for CPR in the cohort of CPR and no-HCC patients, but significant cutoffs of 6.5 ng/mL for AFP and 29 mAU/mL for PIVKA-II were obtained in the cohort of CPR and PPR patients. The 1-, 3- and 5-year HCC recurrence and overall patient survival rates of the CPR group were 5.1% and 93.3%, 7.6% and 89.6%, and 7.6% and 89.6%, respectively. These tumor recurrence rates were much lower than those in the PPR group (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the present study results suggest that normalizing AFP and PIVKA-II after locoregional treatment is indicative of CPR. However, some CPR patients showed high expression of tumor markers; thus, pretransplant values of HCC tumor markers should be interpreted with caution.

A Promising Preoperative Prediction Model for Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on an Extreme Gradient Boosting Algorithm

Background

The non-invasive preoperative diagnosis of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is vital for precise surgical decision-making and patient prognosis. Herein, we aimed to develop an MVI prediction model with valid performance and clinical interpretability.

Methods

A total of 2160 patients with HCC without macroscopic invasion who underwent hepatectomy for the first time in West China Hospital from January 2015 to June 2019 were retrospectively included, and randomly divided into training and a validation cohort at a ratio of 8:2. Preoperative demographic features, imaging characteristics, and laboratory indexes of the patients were collected. Five machine learning algorithms were used: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and multilayer perception. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We also determined the Shapley Additive exPlanation value to explain the influence of each feature on the MVI prediction model.

Results

The top six important preoperative factors associated with MVI were the maximum image diameter, protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II, α-fetoprotein level, satellite nodules, alanine aminotransferase (AST)/aspartate aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, and AST level, according to the XGBoost model. The XGBoost model for preoperative prediction of MVI exhibited a better AUC (0.8, 95% confidence interval: 0.74–0.83) than the other prediction models. Furthermore, to facilitate use of the model in clinical settings, we developed a user-friendly online calculator for MVI risk prediction based on the XGBoost model.

Conclusions

The XGBoost model achieved outstanding performance for non-invasive preoperative prediction of MVI based on big data. Moreover, the MVI risk calculator would assist clinicians in conveniently determining the optimal therapeutic remedy and ameliorating the prognosis of patients with HCC.

Quantitative Prognostic Prediction Using ADV Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Living Donor Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

We assessed the prognostic impact of the ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score) for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and patient survival after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS

This study included 843 HCC patients who underwent LDLT between January 2006 and December 2015 at Asan Medical Center. These cases were divided into treatment-naïve (TN, n = 256]) and pretransplant-treated (PT, n = 587 [69.6%]) groups.

RESULTS

There were weak or nearly no correlations among AFP, DCP, and TV. There existed high correlations between the pretransplant and explant findings regarding tumor number, size, and ADV score. Right lobe grafts were implanted in 760 (90.2%) patients. HCC recurrence and all-cause patient death occurred in 182 (15.9%) and 126 (15.0%) respectively during the follow-up period for 75.6 ± 35.5 months. The 5-year tumor recurrence (TR) and overall patient survival (OS) rates were 21.5% and 86.2%, respectively. The PT group showed higher TR (p < 0.001) and lower OS rates (p < 0.001). TR and OS were closely correlated with both pretransplant and explant ADV scores in the TN and PT groups. The ADV score enabled further prognostic stratification of the patients within and beyond the Milan, UCSF, and Asan Medical Center criteria. Compared with the 7 pre-existing selection criteria, ADV score with a cutoff of 5log showed the highest prognostic contrast regarding TR and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prognostic prediction model using ADV scores is an integrated quantitative surrogate biomarker for posttransplant prognosis in HCC patients and can provide reliable information that assists the decision-making for LDLT.

Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma - The Changing Tides

Portal vein involvement is considered one of the most fearful complications of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is associated with aggressive tumor biology (high grade), high tumor burden (number and size of lesions), high levels of serum markers (AFP), poor liver function (deranged LFT), and poor performance status of patients. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system places HCC patients with PVTT in advanced stage (BCLC Stage-C). This group contains a fairly heterogeneous patient population, previously considered candidates for palliative systemic therapy with sorafenib. However, this provided modest overall survival (OS) benefit. The results of a recent Phase III (IMbrave150) trial favor the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab over sorafenib as a standard of care in advanced unresectable HCC. While only lenvatinib proved to be non-inferior against sorafenib in a phase III (REFLECT trial), regorafenib (RESORCE trial), ramucirumab (REACH-2), and cabozantinib (CELESTIAL) have been approved second-line therapy in phase III clinical trials. Recently, the data on the prospect of other modalities in the management of HCC with PVTT is mounting with favorable results. Targeting multiple pathways in the HCC cascade using a combination of drugs and other modalities such as RT, TACE, TARE, and HAIC appear effective for systemic and loco-regional control. The quest for the ideal combination therapy and the sequence set is still widely unanswered and prospective trials are lacking. With the armament of available therapeutic options and the advances and refinements in the delivery system, down-staging patients to make them eligible for curative resection has been reported. In a rapidly evolving treatment landscape, performing surgery when appropriate, in the form of LR and even LT to achieve cure does not seem farfetched. Likewise, adjuvant therapy and prompt management of the recurrences holds the key to prolong OS and DFS. This review discusses the management options of HCC patients with PVTT.

What is the optimal surgical treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the debate between anatomical versus non-anatomical resection?

The optimal type of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-anatomical or non-anatomical resection-remains controversial despite numerous comparative studies. There are common fundamental issues in published studies comparing anatomical resection with non-anatomical resection: (1) confounding by indication, (2) setting primary outcomes, and (3) a lack of a clear definition of non-anatomical resection. This degrades the quality of the comparison of the two types of surgery. To measure the therapeutic effect of hepatectomy, it is essential to understand the accumulated knowledge underlying these issues, such as the mechanism of hepatocellular carcinoma spread, tumor blood flow drainage theory, and the three patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence: (1) local intrahepatic metastasis, (2) systemic metastasis, and (3) multicentric carcinogenesis recurrence. Based on evidence that the incidence of local intrahepatic metastasis was so low it was almost negligible, the therapeutic effect of anatomical resection on the oncological survival was determined to be similar to that of non-anatomical resection. Recent research progress demonstrating the clinical impact of subclinical dissemination of HCC after surgery may stimulate new debate on the optimal surgical treatment for HCC beyond the comparison of anatomical and non-anatomical resection.

Prognostic Accuracy of the ADV Score Following Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis

BACKGROUND

We assessed the prognostic accuracy of ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score) following resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT).

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study. This study included 147 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC with PVTT. They were followed up for ≥ 66 months or until patient death.

RESULTS

The grades of PVTT were Vp1 in 121 (14.3%), Vp2 in 41 (27.9%), Vp3 in 71 (48.3%), and Vp4 in14 (9.5%) cases. Preoperative HCC treatment was performed in 48 (32.7%) patients. R0 and R1 resections were performed in 119 (81.0%) and 28 (19.0%) cases, respectively. The 5-year tumor recurrence, HCC-specific survival, and post-recurrence survival rates were 79.2%, 43.5%, and 25.4%, respectively. Neither PVTT grade nor history of preoperative HCC treatment was a significant prognostic indicator. Stratification in accordance with ADV scores of 1log- and 3log-intervals resulted in high prognostic accuracy in predicting tumor recurrence and patient survival. Following cluster analysis, the cutoff for ADV score was determined at 9log and was more prognostically significant in terms of tumor recurrence and patient survival than surgical curability or microvascular invasion. Further comparisons revealed that prognostic prediction with an ADV score cutoff at 9log was more accurate than that using the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital-PVTT score.

CONCLUSIONS

ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis in HCC with PVTT. Our prognostic prediction model using ADV scores provides reliable post-resection prognosis for patients with various grades of these tumors.

Prognostic impact of dimensional factors in pT1 gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

The significance of the dimensional factors (tumor diameter, area and volume) as the prognostic factor has not been precisely evaluated in pT1 gastric cancer.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify the clinical impact and to confirm the clinical feasibility of the dimensional factors as prognostic factors in pT1 gastric cancer.

METHODS

We analyzed prognostic factors for disease-specific survival (DSS), overall survival (OS) using clinicopathological factors by univariate and multivariate analyses and the pattern of recurrence in 2011 pT1 gastric cancer (mucosal and submucosal cancers) undergoing R0 gastrectomy. The cut-off values of each dimensional factor was decided by the ROC curve.

RESULTS

Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that older age (≥75) and more advanced pN stage were adverse independent prognostic factors for DSS, and revealed that older age (≥75), greater preoperative co-morbid diseases, proximal and total gastrectomy, operative method and Clavien-Dindo classification (≥grade III) were independent adverse factors for OS. Any dimensional factors were not independent prognostic factors for any survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The dimensional factors do not influence both OS and DSS in pT1 gastric cancer patients and so it is difficult to apply these dimensional factors for conducting therapeutic strategies.

Prediction of Post-resection Prognosis Using the ADV Score for Huge Hepatocellular Carcinomas ≥13 cm

Background/Aims

Multiplication of α-fetoprotein, des-γ-carboxy prothrombin, and tumor volume (ADV score) is a surrogate marker for post-resection prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to validate the predictive power of the ADV score-based prognostic prediction model for patients with solitary huge HCC.

Methods

Of 3,018 patients, 100 patients who underwent hepatic resection for solitary HCC ≥13 cm between 2008 and 2012 were selected.

Results

The median tumor diameter and tumor volume were 15.0 cm and 886 mL, respectively. Tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates were 70.7% and 66.0% at one year and 84.9% and 34.0% at five years, respectively. Microvascular invasion (MVI) was the only independent risk factor for disease-free survival (DFS) and OS. DFS and OS, stratified by ADV score with 1-log intervals, showed significant prognostic contrasts (P=0.007 and P=0.017, respectively). DFS and OS, stratified by ADV score with a cut-off of 8-log, showed significant prognostic contrasts (P=0.014 and P=0.042, respectively). The combination of MVI and ADV score with a cut-off of 8-log also showed significant prognostic contrasts in DFS (P<0.001) and OS (P=0.001) considering the number of risk factors. Prognostic contrast was enhanced after combining the MVI and ADV score.

Conclusions

The prognostic prediction model with the ADV score could reliably predict the risk of tumor recurrence and long-term patient survival outcomes in patients with solitary huge HCC ≥13 cm. The results of this study suggest that our prognostic prediction models can be used to guide surgical treatment and post-resection follow-up for patients with huge HCCs.

Elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein levels are associated with poor prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The relationship between the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level and the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection remains unknown. This study aims to assess this relationship.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were systematically utilised. Meta-analysis was conducted for the outcomes of the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the overall survival (OS) by comparing the high AFP group with the low AFP group.

RESULTS

The studies included 61 manuscripts with 35,461 patients. The summary hazard ratio (HR) for RFS was 1.501 (95% CI 1.355-1.662; Z = 7.81, P < 0.00001) when comparing the high AFP group with the low AFP group. Sensitivity analysis only included adjusted HRs, with the summary HR being 1.563 (95% CI 1.381-1.768; Z = 7.10, P < 0.00001). The summary HR for OS was 1.565 (95% CI 1.439-1.701; Z = 10.52, P < 0.00001) when comparing two AFP groups. Sensitivity analysis showed that the summary HR was 1.611 (95% CI 1.456-1.782; Z = 9.24, P < 0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis indicated that elevated serum AFP levels are associated with poor prognosis of HCC after surgical resection.

Salvage living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after hepatectomy: Quantitative prediction using ADV score

BACKGROUND

Salvage liver transplantation is a definite treatment for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. ADV score is calculated by multiplying α-fetoprotein and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin concentrations and tumor volume. Prognostic accuracy of ADV score was assessed in patients undergoing salvage living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and their outcomes were compared with patients undergoing primary LDLT.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective, single-center, case-controlled study. Outcomes were compared in 125 patients undergoing salvage LDLT from 2007 to 2018 and in 500 propensity score-matched patients undergoing primary LDLT.

RESULTS

In patients undergoing salvage LDLT, median intervals between hepatectomy and tumor recurrence, between first HCC diagnosis and salvage LDLT, and between hepatectomy and salvage LDLT were 12.0, 37.2, and 29.3 months, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS, P = .98) and overall survival (OS, P = .44) rates did not differ significantly in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT. Pretransplant and explant ADV scores were significantly predictive of DFS and OS in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT (P < .001). DFS after prior hepatectomy (P = .52) and interval between hepatectomy and LDLT (P = .82) did not affect DFS after salvage LDLT. Milan criteria and ADV score were independently prognostic of DFS and OS following salvage LDLT, and prognosis of patients within and beyond Milan criteria could be further stratified by ADV score.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors and posttransplant outcomes were similar in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT. ADV score is surrogate biomarker for posttransplant prognosis in salvage and primary LDLT recipients. Prognostic model incorporating ADV scores can help determine whether to perform salvage LDLT.

Next-generation des-r-carboxy prothrombin for immunohistochemical assessment of vascular invasion by hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We have previously shown the value of next-generation des-r-carboxy prothrombin (NX-DCP) for predicting vascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Since conventional DCP is inaccurate under some conditions, this study aimed to assess whether NX-DCP immunohistochemical staining was related to vascular invasion in HCC.

METHODS

Fifty-six patients scheduled to undergo resection for single HCC were divided into two groups, with and without pathological portal vein invasion. Immunohistochemical features of HCC and sites of vascular invasion were assessed using alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), conventional DCP, and NX-DCP.

RESULTS

Pathological portal vein invasion was absent in 43 patients and present in 13 patients. Patient characteristics, pathological background of the liver parenchyma, and tumor-related factors did not differ significantly between the groups. There was no significant difference in the serum AFP level between the groups, whereas levels of conventional DCP (p < 0.0001) and NX-DCP (p < 0.0001) were significantly higher in the vascular invasion group. Immunohistochemical staining showed no significant difference in the staining rate of tumor (67.9% vs. 80.7%, p = 0.08), but NX-DCP stained significantly more at the sites of vascular invasion (15.4% vs. 46.2%, p = 0.01) than conventional DCP. No vascular invasion was stained by AFP.

CONCLUSIONS

NX-DCP offers better sensitivity for detecting sites of vascular invasion than AFP and conventional DCP.

Validation of prognostic impact of ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis using Korea Liver Cancer Registry Database

Purpose

We aimed to validate the prognostic predictive power of ADV score (α-FP-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score, calculated as α-FP [ng/mL] × DCP [mAU/mL] × TV [mL] and expressed in log₁₀) for predicting patient survival after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

This study included 1,390 patients with HCC registered in the Korea Liver Cancer Registry. Patients underwent hepatic resection between 2008 and 2012 and were followed up until December 2016. They were divided into 4 groups according to the number of tumors and preoperative treatment.

Results

There was no significant correlation among α-FP, DCP, and TV values (r² ≤ 0.04, P < 0.001). In group 1 with single treatment-naive tumor (n = 1,154), patient stratification with postoperative ADV 1log-interval and cutoffs of 5log, 7log, and 10log showed great prognostic contrast (P < 0.001). In group 2 with multiple treatment-naive tumors (n = 170), patient stratification with postoperative ADV 1log-interval and above-mentioned 3 cutoffs also showed great prognostic contrast (P < 0.001). In group 3 (n = 50) and group 4 (n = 16) with preoperative-treated tumors, patient stratification with postoperative ADV 1log-interval and above-mentioned 3 cutoffs showed noticeable prognostic contrast (P ≤ 0.031). Preoperative ADV score based on preoperative findings also showed great prognostic contrast in 1,106 patients preoperatively diagnosed as having single treatment-naive tumor (P < 0.001). Confining patients to tumor-node-metastasis stages I and II (n = 1,072) as well as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0 and A (n = 862), postoperative ADV cutoffs showed further prognostic stratification.

Conclusion

This validation study strongly suggests that ADV score is an integrated surrogate marker for postresection prognosis in patients with HCC.

Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Low Tumor Marker Expression Benefits More From Anatomical Resection Than Tumors With Aggressive Biology

OBJECTIVE

We assessed prognostic advantage of anatomical resection (AR) over nonanatomical resection (NAR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to multiplication of α-fetoprotein, des-γ-carboxyprothrombin, and tumor volume (ADV) scores.

BACKGROUND

Superiority of AR over NAR is debated. ADV score is surrogate marker of postresection prognosis for solitary HCC.

METHODS

This study included 1572 patients who underwent curative resection for solitary HCC of 2.0 to 5.0 cm between 2006 and 2014.

RESULTS

Preoperative patient profiles were not statistically different between AR and NAR groups. In 1324 naïve patients without preoperative treatment, AR group showed lower recurrence rates (P = 0.003) and higher patient survival rates (P = 0.012) than NAR group. AR group showed lower recurrence rates in patients with ADV ≤5 log (P ≤ 0.046). ADV scores >4 log and >3 log were independent risk factors for tumor recurrence and patient survival in treatment-naïve patients, respectively. In treatment-naïve group with preserved hepatic functional reserve, AR group showed lower recurrence rates in patients with ADV ≤4 log (P = 0.026). Absence of microvascular invasion also showed lower recurrence rates (P = 0.007) in AR group. In 248 patients with preoperative treatment, AR group showed lower recurrence rates (P = 0.001) and higher patient survival rates (P = 0.006). AR group showed lower recurrence rates in patients with ADV ≤4 log (P < 0.001) and higher survival rates in patients with ADV ≤5 log (P ≤ 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic benefit of AR was evident in patients with ADV score ≤4 log or absence of microvascular invasion. Patients with less aggressive tumor biology benefit more from AR than NAR, thus being reasonably indicated for AR.

Validation of the OncoHepa test, a multigene expression profile test, and the tumor marker-volume score to predict postresection outcome in small solitary hepatocellular carcinomas

Purpose

OncoHepa test is a multigene expression profile test developed for assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis. Multiplication of α-FP, des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and tumor volume (TV) gives the α-FP-DCP-volume (ADV) score, which is also developed for assessment of HCC prognosis.

Methods

The predictive powers of OncoHepa test and ADV score were validated in 35 patients who underwent curative hepatic resection for naïve solitary HCCs ≤5 cm.

Results

Median tumor diameter was 3.0 cm. Tumor recurrence and patient survival rates were 28.6% and 100% at 1 year, 48.6% and 82.9% at 3 years, and 54.3% and 71.4% at 5 years, respectively. The site of first tumor recurrence was the remnant liver in 18, lung in 1, and the peritoneum in 1. All patients with HCC recurrence received locoregional treatment. OncoHepa test showed marginal prognostic significance for tumor recurrence and patient survival. ADV score at 4log also showed marginal prognostic difference with respect to tumor recurrence and patient survival. Combination of these 2 tests resulted in greater prognostic significance for both tumor recurrence (P = 0.046) and patient survival (P = 0.048).

Conclusion

Both OncoHepa test and ADV score have considerably strong prognostic power, thus individual and combined findings of OncoHepa test and ADV score will be helpful to guide postresection surveillance in patients with solitary HCCs ≤5 cm.

Prognostic Prediction Models for Resection of Large Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Korean Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

We developed a prognostic prediction model (PPM) using 4 factors for hepatic resection (HR) of large hepatic cellular carcinoma (HCC). Multiplication of α-fetoprotein (AFP), des-γ-carboxy prothrombin, and tumor volume (TV) (ADV score) is a surrogate marker for post-resection prognosis. This study intended to validate the predictive power of 4-factor PPM and to develop new ADV score-based PPM.

METHODS

A total of 526 patients who underwent HR for solitary HCC ≥ 8 cm were selected from 9 Korean institutions between 2008 and 2014.

RESULTS

Median tumor diameter and TV were 11.0 cm and 398 mL, respectively. Tumor recurrence and patient survival rates were 53.0 and 78.4% at 1 year and 70.2 and 49.3% at 5 years, respectively. Independent risk factors for both tumor recurrence and patient survival included AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, hypermetabolic FDG-positron emission tomography (PET), microvascular invasion and satellite nodules, which comprised 4 factors of the PPM. Five subgroups based on the number of involved risk factors exhibited significant differences in tumor recurrence and patient survival. ADV score cutoff was set at 7log (ADV7log) after cluster prognostic analysis. Patient grouping according to combination of ADV7log and FDG-PET findings (ADV7log-PET) exhibited significant differences in tumor recurrence and patient survival, comparable to those of the 4-factor PPM.

CONCLUSIONS

Two PPMs using 4 risk factors and ADV7log-PET could reliably predict the risk of early HCC recurrence and long-term survival outcomes in patients who underwent HR for large HCC. We believe that these PPMs can guide surgical treatment for large HCCs from preoperative HR planning to post-resection follow-up.

Prognostic influence of 3-dimensional tumor volume on breast cancer compared to conventional 1-dimensional tumor size

Purpose

The prognostic influence of 3-dimensional tumor volume (Tv) on breast cancer compared to conventional 1-dimensional tumor size (T) was investigated.

Methods

Analysis was performed on a cohort of 8,996 primary breast cancer patients who were initially diagnosed with TNM stage I–III. Tumor size was defined as the maximum tumor dimension, and Tv was calculated by the equation of (4π × r1 × r2 × r3)/3; r1, r2, and r3 were defined as half of the largest, intermediate, and shortest dimension of the tumor, respectively. Tv was classified into Tv1, Tv2, and Tv3 according to the cut off values of 2.056 cm³ and 20.733 cm³.

Results

The survival curves according to both the T and Tv categories were clearly differentiated (all P < 0.001), as were those for staging by T and Tv (all P < 0.001). In T1 and T2 tumors, the Tv1 group showed superior survival over the Tv2 group (T1, P < 0.001; T2, P = 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analysis both indicated that Tv was a significant prognostic factor (both P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curves were 0.712 (P < 0.001) for Tv and 0.699 (P < 0.001) for T. Positive correlations were observed between the number of positive nodes and T (coefficient = 0.325; P < 0.001), and between the number of positive nodes and Tv (coefficient = 0.321; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Tv classification works well for predicting the prognosis of breast cancer, and it is a better predictor than conventional T classification in several aspects. Further studies are needed to validate the practical usefulness of Tv classification in clinical settings.

Clinical Features and Surveillance of Very Late Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation

Background

This study aimed to assess patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) and to establish long-term surveillance protocols for late HCC recurrence.

Material/Methods

The 232 LT recipients experiencing subsequent HCC recurrence were categorized as Group 1, early recurrence (within 1 year of LT; n=117); Group 2, late recurrence (occurring in years 2–5; n=93); and Group 3, very late recurrence (after year 5; n=22).

Results

Recurrence was detected by only elevated tumor marker levels in 11.1%, 30.1%, and 45.5% of patients in Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively (p<0.001). The proportion of intrahepatic and extrahepatic metastases was similar in all 3 groups. Common sites of extrahepatic metastasis were the lung and bone; these were also similar across the 3 groups. Overall post-recurrence patient survival rates were 60.2% at 1 year, 28.2% at 3 years, 20.5% at 5 years, and 7.0% at 10 years. Median post-recurrence survival periods were 10.2, 23.8, and 37.0 months in Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

Conclusions

While the pattern of HCC recurrence was similar regardless of time of recurrence, post-recurrence survival was significantly longer in patients with later recurrence. Long-term surveillance for HCC recurrence beyond 5 years after LT is recommended.

Development of novel biological resection criteria for safe and oncologically satisfying resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop criteria for safe and oncologically satisfying liver resection in case of early hepatocellular carcinoma with a 5-year overall survival (OS) similar to liver transplantation.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Liver resection (LR) and liver transplantation (LT) are potentially curative treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma. Generally, LT achieves better OS. Due to organ shortage, however not all patients can receive a LT.

METHODS

To decide which patients to resect and which to transplant we have developed biological resection criteria (BRC) as a compound out of mGPS (modified Glascow Prognostic Scale) and the Kings-Score (for HCV cirrhosis). These are based on routine clinical values that reflect both liver function and tumor biology/immunology.

RESULTS

276 patients were analyzed. Patients undergoing LR within BRC (_inBRC) had a significantly better overall (73.6% vs. 35.4%, (p < 0.001)) and disease-free survival (54.7% vs. 17.2%, (p < 0.001)) as compared to patients outside the BRC (_outBRC). The predictive value of BRC was independent of tumor burden. In a subgroup analysis _outBRC patients had significantly worse outcome after major resection. In LT patients BRC had no predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

BRC may be a valuable tool to predict survival after LR for HCC. Patients resected _inBRC may achieve comparable survival as LT. LR in _outBRC patients are unlikely to be curative. All _outBRC patients should be monitored closely for salvage LT.

Management of very late peritoneal metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma 10 years after liver transplantation: Lessons from two cases

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 10 years after liver transplantation (LT) is very rare. Here, we present two cases of peritoneal metastasis of HCC that occurred 10 and 12 years after LT. A 77-year-old male who had undergone deceased-donor LT 10 years earlier showed slow progressive elevation of tumor marker levels over 6 months. Close observation with frequent imaging studies and monthly tumor marker analyses revealed a solitary peritoneal seeding mass. Imaging studies revealed that the mass was highly likely to be metastatic HCC. After excision of the mass, all tumor markers returned to the normal range. Over past 10 months, the patient has received everolimus monotherapy and half-dose sorafenib, and has shown no evidence of HCC recurrence. In the second case, marginally elevated tumor marker levels were detected in a 65-year-old male who had undergone living-donor LT 12 years earlier. After observation for 3 months, follow-up studies revealed a peritoneal seeding mass. Thorough imaging studies revealed that the mass was highly likely to be metastatic HCC. Two mass lesions were excised, and the patient was administered low-dose calcineruin inhibitor, sirolimus, and full-dose sorafenib. Subsequently, the tumor marker levels increased again and growth of new peritoneal seeding nodules was observed; therefore, sorafenib was stopped after 2 years of administration. During 6 years since HCC recurrence diagnosis, the patient has experienced slowly growing tumors, but has been doing well. For very late peritoneal metastasis of HCC, the therapeutic modalities include surgical resection if possible, everolimus monotherapy, and long-term use of sorafenib.

Prognostic value of a novel risk classification of microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Objectives

The present research aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a novel risk classification of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection.

Methods

A total of 295 consecutive HCC patients underwent hepatectomy were included in our study. We evaluated the degree of MVI according to the following three features: the number of invaded microvessels (≤5 vs >5), the number of invading carcinoma cells (≤ 50 vs >50), the distance of invasion from tumor edge (≤1 cm vs >1 cm).

Results

All patients were divided into three groups according to the three risk factors of MVI: non-MVI group (n=180), low-MVI group (n=60) and high-MVI group (n=55). The overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates of high-MVI group were significantly poorer than those of low-MVI and non-MVI groups (P<0.001 and P=0.001; P<0.001 and P=0.003). Multivariate analysis showed high-MVI, type of resection, ICG-R15 and tumor size were risk factors for OS after hepatectomy. High-MVI, type of resection and tumor size were risk factors for RFS. In subgroup analyses, the OS and RFS rates of low-MVI and non-MVI groups were better than high-MVI group regardless of tumor size. In high-MVI group, anatomical liver resection (n=28) showed better OS and RFS rates compared with non-anatomical liver resection (n=29) (P=0.012 and P=0.002).

Conclusions

The novel risk classification of MVI based on histopathological features is valuable for predicting prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy.

Conditional Survival Analysis Demonstrates that Recurrence Risk of Surgically Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Evolves with Time

OBJECTIVE

The study aim was to investigate long-term change in tumor recurrence risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection. Recurrence probability over time was estimated by conditional survival (CS) analysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Early-stage HCC patients with hepatic resection were selected for inclusion from our surgery database. Variables predictive of tumor recurrence were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Five-year recurrence-free CS probability was calculated for all patients and for risk groups stratified by independent predictors.

RESULTS

In this series of 436 patients, tumor size >5 cm, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, liver cirrhosis, and a indocyanine green retention ratio at 15 min (ICG-R15) >20% were independently predictive of tumor recurrence. The estimated 5-year recurrence-free CS probability improved with each additional year of recurrence-free survival, and the improvement was significantly greater in the high-risk than in the low- or intermediate-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

CS provides added value during follow-up of early-stage HCC patients treated by surgical resection.