Lymphocyte to Monocyte Ratio Predicts Resectability and Early Recurrence of Bismuth-Corlette Type IV Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Role of genomics in liver transplantation for cholangiocarcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to summarize the current knowledge of cholangiocarcinoma molecular biology and to suggest a framework for implementation of next-generation sequencing in all stages of liver transplantation. This is timely as recent guidelines recommend increased use of these technologies with promising results.

RECENT FINDINGS

The main themes covered here address germline and somatic genetic alterations recently discovered in cholangiocarcinoma, particularly those associated with prognosis and treatment responses, and nascent efforts to translate these into contemporary practice in the peri-liver transplantation period.

SUMMARY

Early efforts to translate molecular profiling to cholangiocarcinoma care demonstrate a growing number of potentially actionable alterations. Still lacking is a consensus on what biomarkers and technologies to adopt, at what scale and cost, and how to integrate them most effectively into care with the ambition of increasing the number of patients eligible for liver transplantation and improving their long-term outcomes.

Predictive model for very early recurrence of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: a machine learning approach

Background

Although offering the best chance of potential cure for patients with localized perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), resection has been associated with high morbidity and sometimes poor long-term outcomes due to recurrence. We sought to develop a predictive model to identify individuals at high risk for very early recurrence (VER) after curative-intent surgery for pCCA.

Methods

Patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for pCCA between 2000-2023 were identified from a multi-institutional database. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to estimate the risk of VER, defined as recurrence within 6 months after resection. The relative importance of clinicopathologic factors was determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.

Results

Among 434 patients undergoing curative-intent resection for pCCA, 65 (15.0%) patients developed VER. Median overall survival (OS) among patients with and without VER was 8.4 [interquartile range (IQR) 6.6-11.3] versus 38.5 (IQR 31.9-45.7) months (P<0.001). An XGBoost model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk of VER [low-risk: 6-month recurrence-free survival (RFS) 94.6% vs. intermediate-risk: 6-month RFS 88.3% vs. high-risk: 6-month RFS 40.0%; P<0.001]. Similarly, 3-year OS incrementally worsened based on VER risk (low-risk: 75.3% vs. intermediate-risk: 19.5% vs. high-risk: 4.6%; P<0.001). The SHAP algorithm identified age, preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels, tumor size and differentiation/grade, as well as lymph node metastasis as the five most important predictors of VER. The predictive accuracy of the model was good in the training [c-index: 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-0.81] and internal validation (c-index: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.71-0.83) cohorts. An easy-to-use risk calculator for VER was developed and made available online at: https://junkawashima.shinyapps.io/VER_hilar/.

Conclusions

A novel, machine learning based model was able to predict accurately the chance of VER after curative-intent resection of pCCA. In turn, the tool may help surgeons in the selection of patients likely to benefit the most from resection, as well as counsel individuals about the anticipated risk of recurrence in the early post-operative period.

Prognostic Significance of Lymphocyte-to-Monocyte Ratio in Patients With Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer Undergoing Systemic Chemotherapy

Background/Aim

The incidence of biliary tract cancers (BTC), including cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder cancer, has been increasing worldwide. Approximately 70% of BTC patients have advanced disease at diagnosis, leading to a poor survival rate. Recent clinical trials have demonstrated that the addition of immune checkpoint inhibitors, such as durvalumab or pembrolizumab, to gemcitabine plus cisplatin chemotherapy significantly improves survival rates, making triple therapy the current standard for first-line treatment of BTC. Few models with predictive value exist for BTC. Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) is a relatively new inflammation-related score and translational biomarker and has prognostic value for survival of patients with other cancers. This study assessed the prognostic value of LMR in patients with advanced BTC and analyzed the risk factors associated with overall survival (OS).

Patients and Methods

This prospective study enrolled 75 patients with advanced BTC who were treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapies at Aso Iizuka Hospital, Japan. The cutoff value of LMR for predicting 6-month survival was 3.27.

Results

OS was longer for patients with high LMR compared with low LMR (median 32.4 months and 8.6 months, respectively; p=0.0069). Multivariate analysis identified LMR >3.27 [hazard ratio (HR)=0.427, p=0.0339] and objective response rate (HR=0.210, p=0.0116) as independent factors associated with OS.

Conclusion

Despite some limitations, such as the single-center design and small sample size, the results of this study suggest a potential role for LMR in predicting survival outcomes for BTC patients treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapies.

Preoperative factors predicting outcomes in patients with suspected perihilar cholangiocarcinoma referred for curative resection- a single-center 10-year experience

PURPOSE

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is a rare malignancy requiring resection of extrahepatic bile ducts with or without hepatectomy. Prognostic models for post-operative outcomes in pCCA are unusable in pre-operative decision-making as most are based on post-operative variables. Additionally, no pre-operative models include futile laparotomy or benign hilar stenosis (BHS) as possible outcomes. We investigated pre-operative predictive factors for non-resectability, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS), in patients referred for resection of suspected pCCA.

METHODS

Patients with suspected pCCA evaluated at multidisciplinary team (MDT) conference and referred for curative resection at Rigshospitalet, from 2013-2023. Outcomes were preoperative factors related to OS, DFS and non-resectability.

RESULTS

Ninety-three patients with suspected pCCA were considered resectable at MDT, of which 84 (90.3 %) were confirmed pCCA. Nineteen (20.4 %) with pCCA were non-resectable. Patients with non-resectable pCCA had higher pre-operative p-bilirubin and ECOG-performance status (ECOG-PS) compared to resected pCCA and BHS (p=0.02 and 0.01). Portal vein embolization (PVE), higher ECOG-PS and elevated p-bilirubin were associated with worse OS in patients with pCCA undergoing surgical exploration [(HR 2.45 (95% CI 1.32-4.56), p=0.004), (HR 2.32 (95% CI 1.30-4.09), p=0.004) and (HR 2.03 (95% CI 1.17-3.51), p=0.01), respectively]. PVE and larger tumor size were associated with poorer DFS [HR 3.29 (95 % CI 1.64- 6.60), p=0.001) and (HR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04), p=0.003) respectively].

CONCLUSION

Poor ECOG-PS, PVE, elevated p-bilirubin and larger tumor size were associated with adverse survival in patients with pCCA undergoing surgical exploration. Non-resectable pCCA were associated with higher rates of elevated p-bilirubin and larger tumor size.

Machine learning model to predict early recurrence in patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma planned treatment with curative resection: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence is the leading cause of death for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) after surgery. Identifying high-risk patients preoperatively is important. This study aimed to construct a preoperative prediction model for the early recurrence of patients with pCCA to facilitate planned treatment with curative resection.

METHODS

This study ultimately enrolled 400 patients with pCCA after curative resection in 5 hospitals between 2013 and 2019. They were randomly divided into training (n = 300) and testing groups (n = 100) at a ratio of 3:1. Associated variables were identified via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Four machine learning models were constructed: support vector machine, random forest (RF), logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors. The predictive ability of the models was evaluated via receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curve (PRC) curves, and decision curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves were drawn for the high-/low-risk population.

RESULTS

Five factors: carbohydrate antigen 19-9, tumor size, total bilirubin, hepatic artery invasion, and portal vein invasion, were selected by LASSO regression. In both the training and testing groups, the ROC curve (area under the curve: 0.983 vs 0.952) and the PRC (0.981 vs 0.939) showed that RF was the best. The cutoff value for distinguishing high- and low-risk patients was 0.51. K-M survival curves revealed that in both groups, there was a significant difference in RFS between high- and low-risk patients (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

This study used preoperative variables from a large, multicenter database to construct a machine learning model that could effectively predict the early recurrence of pCCA in patients to facilitate planned treatment with curative resection and help clinicians make better treatment decisions.

Preoperative monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as a prognosis predictor after curative hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several inflammatory indicators have been reported to have predictive value in many types of malignant cancer. This research was aimed to explore the ability of the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) to predict prognosis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who subjected to curative hepatectomy.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 196 patients with ICC who underwent curative hepatectomy between May 2018 and April 2023. The predictive abilities of the preoperative MLR in assessing overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in those patients were compared with other inflammation-based scores, including monocyte-to-white ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, neutrophil-to-white ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-white ratio, and systemic immune-inflammation index, as well as tumor markers, like carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19 - 9 (CA19-9).

RESULTS

The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the preoperative MLR had higher predictive efficiency in contrast with other inflammation-based scores and tumor markers in assessing OS and DFS. Stratifying patients according to the optimal cut-off value for the preoperative MLR, the data showed that both OS and DFS in the high MLR group were significantly worse than those in the low MLR group (p < 0.05 for all). Univariable and multivariable Cox analyses revealed that the preoperative MLR was an independent risk factor for OS and DFS in patients with ICC. In addition to predicting OS in patients with high CEA levels and predicting DFS in patients with high CA19-9 levels, patients with different CEA and CA19-9 levels were divided into completely different OS and DFS subgroups based on the risk stratification of the preoperative MLR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated that the preoperative MLR was a good prognosis indicator to predict DFS and OS following curative hepatectomy in patients with ICC.

Interpretable machine learning-based clinical prediction model for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Prediction of lymph node metastasis (LNM) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is critical for the treatment regimen and prognosis. We aim to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-based predictive models for LNM in patients with ICC.

METHODS

A total of 345 patients with clinicopathological characteristics confirmed ICC from Jan 2007 to Jan 2019 were enrolled. The predictors of LNM were identified by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic analysis. The selected variables were used for developing prediction models for LNM by six ML algorithms, including Logistic regression (LR), Gradient boosting machine (GBM), Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), Random Forest (RF), Decision tree (DT), Multilayer perceptron (MLP). We applied 10-fold cross validation as internal validation and calculated the average of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the performance of all models. A feature selection approach was applied to identify importance of predictors in each model. The heat map was used to investigate the correlation of features. Finally, we established a web calculator using the best-performing model.

RESULTS

In multivariate logistic regression analysis, factors including alcoholic liver disease (ALD), smoking, boundary, diameter, and white blood cell (WBC) were identified as independent predictors for LNM in patients with ICC. In internal validation, the average values of AUC of six models ranged from 0.820 to 0.908. The XGB model was identified as the best model, the average AUC was 0.908. Finally, we established a web calculator by XGB model, which was useful for clinicians to calculate the likelihood of LNM.

CONCLUSION

The proposed ML-based predicted models had a good performance to predict LNM of patients with ICC. XGB performed best. A web calculator based on the ML algorithm showed promise in assisting clinicians to predict LNM and developed individualized medical plans.

Prognostic value of inflammatory nutritional scores in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy: a multicenter study in China

Objective

This study investigates the prognostic significance of inflammatory nutritional scores in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) undergoing neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy.

Methods

A total of 190 LA-ESCC patients were recruited from three medical centers across China. Pre-treatment laboratory tests were utilized to calculate inflammatory nutritional scores. LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to pinpoint predictors of pathological response. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were employed to assess disease-free survival (DFS) prognostic factors.

Results

The cohort comprised 154 males (81.05%) and 36 females (18.95%), with a median age of 61.4 years. Pathological complete response (pCR) was achieved in 17.38% of patients, while 44.78% attained major pathological response (MPR). LASSO and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified that hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte, and platelet (HALP) (P=0.02) as an independent predictors of MPR in LA-ESCC patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests indicated that patients with low HALP, MPR, ypT1-2, ypN0 and, ypTNM I stages had prolonged DFS (P < 0.05). Furthermore, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses underscored HALP (P = 0.019) and ypT (P = 0.029) as independent predictive factors for DFS in ESCC.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that LA-ESCC patients with lower pre-treatment HALP scores exhibit improved pathological response and reduced recurrence rate. As a comprehensive index of inflammatory nutritional status, pre-treatment HALP may be a reliable prognostic marker in ESCC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoimmunotherapy.

Preoperative predictors for non-resectability in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Explorative laparotomy without subsequent curative-intent liver resection remains a major clinical problem in the treatment of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA). Thus, we aimed to identify preoperative risk factors for non-resectability of pCCA patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients undergoing surgical exploration between 2010 and 2022 were eligible for the analysis. Separate binary logistic regressions analyses were used to determine risk factors for non-resectability after explorative laparotomy due to technical (tumor extent, vessel infiltration) and oncological (peritoneal carcinomatosis, distant nodal or liver metastases)/liver function reasons.

RESULTS

This monocentric cohort comprised 318 patients with 209 (65.7%) being surgically resected and 109 (34.3%) being surgically explored [explorative laparotomy: 87 (27.4%), laparoscopic exploration: 22 (6.9%)]. The median age in the cohort was 69 years (range 60-75) and a majority had significant comorbidities with ASA-Score ≥ 3 (202/318, 63.5%). Statistically significant (p < 0.05) risk factors for non-resectability were age above 70 years (HR = 3.76, p = 0.003), portal vein embolization (PVE, HR = 5.73, p = 0.007), and arterial infiltration > 180° (HR = 8.05 p < 0.001) for technical non-resectability and PVE (HR = 4.67, p = 0.018), arterial infiltration > 180° (HR = 3.24, p = 0.015), and elevated CA 19-9 (HR = 3.2, p = 0.009) for oncological/liver-functional non-resectability.

CONCLUSION

Advanced age, PVE, arterial infiltration, and elevated CA19-9 are major risk factors for non-resectability in pCCA. Preoperative assessment of those factors is crucial for better therapeutical pathways. Diagnostic laparoscopy, especially in high-risk situations, should be used to reduce the amount of explorative laparotomies without subsequent liver resection.

Systematic Review of Preoperative Prognostic Biomarkers in Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is an uncommon malignancy with generally poor prognosis. Surgery is the primary curative treatment; however, the perioperative mortality and morbidity rates are high, with a low 5-year survival rate. Use of preoperative prognostic biomarkers to predict survival outcomes after surgery for pCCA are not well-established currently. This systematic review aimed to identify and summarise preoperative biomarkers associated with survival in pCCA, thereby potentially improving treatment decision-making. The Embase, Medline, and Cochrane databases were searched, and a systematic review was performed using the PRISMA guidelines. English-language studies examining the association between serum and/or tissue-derived biomarkers in pCCA and overall and/or disease-free survival were included. Our systematic review identified 64 biomarkers across 48 relevant studies. Raised serum CA19-9, bilirubin, CEA, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and tumour MMP9, and low serum albumin were most associated with poorer survival; however, the cutoff values used widely varied. Several promising molecular markers with prognostic significance were also identified, including tumour HMGA2, MUC5AC/6, IDH1, PIWIL2, and DNA index. In conclusion, several biomarkers have been identified in serum and tumour specimens that prognosticate overall and disease-free survival after pCCA resection. These, however, require external validation in large cohort studies and/or in preoperatively obtained specimens, especially tissue biopsy, to recommend their use.

A meta-analysis of prognostic factors for early recurrence in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma after curative-intent resection

BACKGROUND

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is a type of cancer that has a high rate of recurrence after curative-intent surgery, with about half of all recurrences occurring within the first year. The primary aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors (PFs) for early recurrence (ER, within 12 months) after surgery.

METHODS

Systematic searching was conducted from database inception to September 28th, 2022, with duplicate independent review and data extraction. Data on eight predefined PFs were collected, and meta-analysis was performed on PFs for ER, summarized using forest plots.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 11 studies comprising 2877 patients. In the risk-of-bias assessment, seven studies were rated as low risk and four as moderate risk. More than 34.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26.1-42.5%) of the patients experienced ER after curative-intent pCCA resection. Of the PFs, vascular invasion (HR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.47-3.95; OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.17-2.18), lymph node metastases (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.92-3.37; OR, 4.26; 95% CI, 2.40-7.57), and R1 resection (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.81-5.92; OR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.36-4.22) were associated with an increased hazard for ER. The combined OR values also showed that tumor size, poor tumor differentiation, and perineural invasion were linked to an elevated risk of ER, but all of them had apparent heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

These findings from the review could be used to plan surveillance of ER and guide post-operative individualized management in pCCA. Furthermore, prospective studies are needed to explore more prognostic factors for ER of pCCA.

Cholangiocarcinoma - novel biological insights and therapeutic strategies

In the past 5 years, important advances have been made in the scientific understanding and clinical management of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). The cellular immune landscape of CCA has been characterized and tumour subsets with distinct immune microenvironments have been defined using molecular approaches. Among these subsets, the identification of 'immune-desert' tumours that are relatively devoid of immune cells emphasizes the need to consider the tumour immune microenvironment in the development of immunotherapy approaches. Progress has also made in identifying the complex heterogeneity and diverse functions of cancer-associated fibroblasts in this desmoplastic cancer. Assays measuring circulating cell-free DNA and cell-free tumour DNA are emerging as clinical tools for detection and monitoring of the disease. Molecularly targeted therapy for CCA has now become a reality, with three drugs targeting oncogenic fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) fusions and one targeting neomorphic, gain-of-function variants of isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1) obtaining regulatory approval. By contrast, immunotherapy using immune-checkpoint inhibitors has produced disappointing results in patients with CCA, underscoring the requirement for novel immune-based treatment strategies. Finally, liver transplantation for early stage intrahepatic CCA under research protocols is emerging as a viable therapeutic option in selected patients. This Review highlights and provides in-depth information on these advances.

Survival outcome of surgical resection compared to non-resection for Bismuth type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Bismuth type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma has been considered an unresectable disease. The aim of the study was to assess whether the surgical resection of type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma was associated with better survival rates.

METHODS

The data of 117 patients diagnosed with type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma at Keimyung University Dongsan Hospital from 2005 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. The Bismuth type was assigned based on the patient's radiological imaging findings. The primary outcomes were the surgical results and median overall survival.

RESULTS

The demographic characteristics of the 117 patients with type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma were comparable between the surgical resection and non-resection groups. Thirty-two (27.4%) patients underwent surgical resections. A left hepatectomy was performed in 16 patients, right hepatectomy in 13 patients, and a central bi-sectionectomy in three patients. The remaining 85 patients received non-surgical treatments. Thirteen (10.9%) received palliative chemotherapy, and 72 (60.5%) patients received conservative treatment including biliary drainage. The patients in the resection group showed significantly longer median overall survival than the patients in the non-resection group (32.4 vs 16.0 months; P = 0.002), even though the positive resection margin rate was high (62.5%). Surgical complications occurred in 15 (46.9%) patients. Complications of Clavien-Dindo classification grade III or higher occurred in 13 (40.6%) patients and grade V in two patients (6.3%).

CONCLUSION

Surgical resection for Bismuth type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma is technically demanding. The survival of the resection group was significantly better than that of the non-resection group. The resection of selected patients achieved a curative goal with acceptable postoperative morbidity, although the microscopically positive resection margin rate was high.

The predictive value of lymphocyte to monocyte ratio for overall survival in cholangiocarcinoma patients with hepatic resection

BACKGROUND

There is considerable heterogeneity in clinical behavior and survival outcomes in patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), and the prognosis of CCA patients is poor. We proposed lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) as a novel prognostic element for CCA patients with hepatic resection in present study.

METHODS

By retrospectively analyzing the clinical data of 145 CCA patients with hepatic resection, we determined the optimal LMR cutoff value according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We comparatively analyzed the clinical features of CAA patients between low LMR group and high LMR group, mainly including overall survival (OS) analysis by using the Kaplan-Meier method, univariate and multivariate Cox regression.

RESULTS

We found there was a longer OS in CCA patients of the high LMR group than the low LMR group. The total median OS of cholangiocarcinoma patients were 13.6 months, and the OS of low LMR group was markedly lower than the high LMR group. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS of high LMR group were respectively 62.9%, 32.4%, and 16.4%, and were significantly higher the cholangiocarcinoma patients of low LMR group (40.2%, 16.4%, and 0%). Multivariate regression analyses showed that preoperative cholangitis, elevated CEA level and nerve invasion were risk factors for the OS of cholangiocarcinoma patients, while the high LMR level and postoperative treatment were protective factors for the OS of cholangiocarcinoma patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative LMR was a vital prognostic factor to predict the prognosis of CCA patients with hepatic resection and provided additional prognostic value beyond standard clinicopathological parameters.

Lymphocyte-to-Monocyte Ratio and Clinical Outcomes in Cholangiocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Lymphocyte-to-Monocyte ratio (LMR) has shown an association with survival outcomes in several oncological diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the association between LMR and clinical outcomes for cholangiocarcinoma patients. A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess the association between LMR values and overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and time to recurrence (TTR) in cholangiocarcinoma patients. We used Hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI) as a measure of effect for the random effect model meta-analysis. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used for quality assessment. The Egger test and funnel plot were developed for approaching publication bias. A total of 19 studies were included in this study (n = 3860). The meta-analysis showed that cholangiocarcinoma patients with low values of LMR were associated with worse OS (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96; I2 = 86%) and worse TTR (HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.58-0.86; I2 = 0%). DFS and RFS also were evaluated; however, they did not show statistically significant associations. Low LMR values were associated with a worse OS and TTR.

GM-CSF drives myelopoiesis, recruitment and polarisation of tumour-associated macrophages in cholangiocarcinoma and systemic blockade facilitates antitumour immunity

OBJECTIVE

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is rising in incidence, and at present, there are limited effective systemic therapies. iCCA tumours are infiltrated by stromal cells, with high prevalence of suppressive myeloid populations including tumour-associated macrophages (TAMs) and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs). Here, we show that tumour-derived granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) and the host bone marrow is central for monopoiesis and potentiation of TAMs, and abrogation of this signalling axis facilitates antitumour immunity in a novel model of iCCA.

METHODS

Blood and tumours were analysed from iCCA patients and controls. Treatment and correlative studies were performed in mice with autochthonous and established orthotopic iCCA tumours treated with anti-GM-CSF monoclonal antibody.

RESULTS

Systemic elevation in circulating myeloid cells correlates with poor prognosis in patients with iCCA, and patients who undergo resection have a worse overall survival if tumours are more infiltrated with CD68+ TAMs. Mice with spontaneous iCCA demonstrate significant elevation of monocytic myeloid cells in the tumour microenvironment and immune compartments, and tumours overexpress GM-CSF. Blockade of GM-CSF with a monoclonal antibody decreased tumour growth and spread. Mice bearing orthotopic tumours treated with anti-GM-CSF demonstrate repolarisation of immunosuppressive TAMs and MDSCs, facilitating T cell response and tumour regression. GM-CSF blockade dampened inflammatory gene networks in tumours and TAMs. Human tumours with decreased GM-CSF expression exhibit improved overall survival after resection.

CONCLUSIONS

iCCA uses the GM-CSF-bone marrow axis to establish an immunosuppressive tumour microenvironment. Blockade of the GM-CSF axis promotes antitumour T cell immunity.

Prognostic significance of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to albumin ratio in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after hepatectomy

Inflammation has been reported to play an important role in tumour progression and prognosis. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic significance of γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) to albumin ratio (GAR) in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after hepatectomy. We retrospectively analysed 650 ICC patients underwent hepatectomy at three Chinese medical centres between January 2009 and September 2017. Patients were classified into derivation cohort (n = 509) and validation cohort (n = 141). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off value for GAR. Survival curve and cox regression analysis were applied to assess the prognostic power of GAR. The prognostic accuracy of GAR was compared with other variables by ROC curve. The optimal cut-off value for GAR was 1.3655. Preoperative high GAR was closely related to tumour number, lymph node invasion and GGT. The survival curve of derivation and validation cohorts showed that patients in the high GAR group had significantly shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) than patients in the low GAR group. Multivariate analysis in the derivation cohort confirmed that GAR was an independent prognostic factor for survival outcomes. Moreover, the ROC curve revealed that GAR had better predictive accuracy than other variables. High GAR predicted poor OS and DFS in ICC patients after hepatectomy. GAR may be a novel, simple and effective prognostic marker for ICC patients.

Predictive model for the intraoperative unresectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma: Reducing futile surgical exploration

Introduction

Surgical exploration is widely performed in hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA), but the intraoperative resectability rate is only 60%-80%. Exploration substantially increases pain and mental stress, and the costs and length of hospital stay are considerably increased. Identifying preoperative risk factors associated with unresectability could decrease unnecessary exploration.

Materials and methods

In total, 440 HCCA patients from multiple centers were enrolled. Those receiving surgical exploration were divided into the resected and unresected groups. Morphological variables including Bismuth classification, lymph node metastasis and vessel invasion were obtained from radiological exams. Logistic regression for the training cohort was used to identify risk factors for unresectability, and a nomogram was constructed to calculate the unresectability rate. A calibration curve assessed the power of the nomogram.

Results

Among 311 patients receiving surgical exploration, 45 (14.7%) were unresectable by intraoperative judgment. Compared with the resected group, unresected patients had similar costs (p = 0.359) and lengths of hospital stay (p = 0.439). Multivariable logistic regression of the training cohort (235 patients) revealed that CA125, Bismuth-Corlette type IV, lymph node metastasis and hepatic artery invasion were risk factors for unresectability. Liver atrophy (p = 0.374) and portal vein invasion (p = 0.114) were not risk factors. The nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors. The concordance index (C-index) values of the calibration curve for predicting the unresectability rate of the training and validation (76 patients) cohorts were 0.900 (95% CI, 0.835–0.966) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.546–0.902), respectively.

Conclusion

Analysis of preoperative factors could reveal intraoperative unresectability and reduce futile surgical explorations, ultimately benefiting HCCA patients.

Development and Validation of Noninvasive MRI-Based Signature for Preoperative Prediction of Early Recurrence in Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Cholangiocarcinoma is a type of hepatobiliary tumor. For perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), patients who experience early recurrence (ER) have a poor prognosis. Preoperative accurate prediction of postoperative ER can avoid unnecessary operation; however, prediction is challenging.

PURPOSE

To develop a novel signature based on clinical and/or MRI radiomics features of pCCA to preoperatively predict ER.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

One hundred eighty-four patients (median age, 61.0 years; interquartile range: 53.0-66.8 years) including 115 men and 69 women.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

A 1.5 T; volumetric interpolated breath-hold examination (VIBE) sequence.

ASSESSMENT

The models were developed from the training set (128 patients) and validated in a separate testing set (56 patients). The contrast-enhanced arterial and portal vein phase MR images of hepatobiliary system were used for extracting radiomics features. The correlation analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression (LR), backward stepwise LR were mainly used for radiomics feature selection and modeling (Model^radiomic ). The univariate and multivariate backward stepwise LR were used for preoperative clinical predictors selection and modeling (Model^clinic ). The radiomics and preoperative clinical predictors were combined by multivariate LR method to construct clinic-radiomics nomogram (Model^combine ).

STATISTICAL TESTS

Chi-squared (χ² ) test or Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney U-test or t-test, Delong test. Two tailed P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Based on the comparison of area under the curves (AUC) using Delong test, Model^clinic and Model^combine had significantly better performance than Model^radiomic and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) system in training set. In the testing set, both Model^clinic and Model^combine had significantly better performance than TNM system, whereas only Model^combine was significantly superior to Model^radiomic . However, the AUC values were not significantly different between Model^clinic and Model^combine (P = 0.156 for training set and P = 0.439 for testing set).

DATA CONCLUSION

A noninvasive model combining the MRI-based radiomics signature and clinical variables is potential to preoperatively predict ER for pCCA.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 4.

Prognostic Impact of Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio in Clinical Outcome of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background:

Lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) is a surrogate marker of systemic inflammation which is shown to be related to the patient’s survival in multiple malignancies. An important implication of this marker potentially is neoplasms in which there is no correlation between prognosis and histopathological staging and also has no reliable chemical markers associated with prognosis. Herein, this meta-analysis aimed to investigate the prognostic role of LMR in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Materials and Methods:

In the current systemic review and meta-analysis, we conducted a systemic search of databases and indexing sources, including PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, Scopus, and ProQuest up to May 2019 toinclude studies on the prognostic significance of LMR on patients with HCC. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) values were extracted from the studies and analyzed. The pooled hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was explored to identify the prognostic value of the LMR in the survival of the patients with HCC.

Results:

A total of 12 studies with a total sample size of 3750 cases were included. There was significant heterogeneity among the studies; therefore, subgroup analysis was also performed. Overall analysis regarding OS showed an insignificant relationship between LMR and patient’s prognosis, dividing to subgroups based on LMR cut-offs did not yield any significant result, subgroup analysis for RFS founded statistically significant results and LMR was significantly related to DFS.

Conclusion:

High LMR was associated with increased DFS and RFS, in return this association was not observed for OS.

Diagnosis and treatment modalities of hilar biliary duct stricture in hepatic cystic echinococcosis after endocystectomy

Aim: Hilar biliary duct stricture may occur in hepatic cystic echinococcosis (CE) patients after endocystectomy. This study aimed to explore diagnosis and treatment modalities. Methods: Clinical data of 26 hepatic CE patients undergoing endocystectomy who developed postoperative hilar biliary duct stricture were retrospectively analyzed and were classified into three types: type A, type B, and type C. Postoperative complications and survival time were successfully followed up. Results: Imaging showed biliary duct stenosis, atrophy of ipsilateral hepatic lobe, reactive hyperplasia, hepatic hilum calcification, and dilation or discontinuity of intrahepatic biliary duct. All patients received partial hepatectomy to resect residual cyst cavity and atrophic liver tissue, and anastomosis of hepatic duct with jejunum or common bile duct exploration was applied to handle hilar biliary duct stricture. Twenty-five patients were successfully followed up. Among type A patients, one patient died of organ failure, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding and liver abscess occurred in one patient. Moreover, calculus of intrahepatic duct was found in one type B and type C patient. Conclusion: Long-term biliary fistula, infection of residual cavity or obstructive jaundice in hepatic CE patients after endocystectomy are possible indicators of hilar bile duct stricture. Individualized and comprehensive treatment measures, especially effective treatment of residual cavity and biliary fistula, are optimal to avoid serious hilar bile duct stricture.

Clinical diagnosis of severe COVID-19: A derivation and validation of a prediction rule

BACKGROUND

The widespread coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, early risk identification of critically ill patients remains crucial.

AIM

To develop predictive rules at the time of admission to identify COVID-19 patients who might require intensive care unit (ICU) care.

METHODS

This retrospective study included a total of 361 patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction between January 19, 2020, and March 14, 2020 in Shenzhen Third People's Hospital. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to develop the predictive model. The performance of the predictive model was externally validated and evaluated based on a dataset involving 126 patients from the Wuhan Asia General Hospital between December 2019 and March 2020, by area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), goodness-of-fit and the performance matrix including the sensitivity, specificity, and precision. A nomogram was also used to visualize the model.

RESULTS

Among the patients in the derivation and validation datasets, 38 and 9 participants (10.5% and 2.54%, respectively) developed severe COVID-19, respectively. In univariate analysis, 21 parameters such as age, sex (male), smoker, body mass index (BMI), time from onset to admission (> 5 d), asthenia, dry cough, expectoration, shortness of breath, asthenia, and Rox index < 18 (pulse oxygen saturation, SpO2)/(FiO2 × respiratory rate, RR) showed positive correlations with severe COVID-19. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, only six parameters including BMI [odds ratio (OR) 3.939; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.409-11.015; P = 0.009], time from onset to admission (≥ 5 d) (OR 7.107; 95%CI: 1.449-34.849; P = 0.016), fever (OR 6.794; 95%CI: 1.401-32.951; P = 0.017), Charlson index (OR 2.917; 95%CI: 1.279-6.654; P = 0.011), PaO2/FiO2 ratio (OR 17.570; 95%CI: 1.117-276.383; P = 0.041), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (OR 3.574; 95%CI: 1.048-12.191; P = 0.042) were found to be independent predictors of COVID-19. These factors were found to be significant risk factors for severe patients confirmed with COVID-19. The AUROC was 0.941 (95%CI: 0.901-0.981) and 0.936 (95%CI: 0.886-0.987) in both datasets. The calibration properties were good.

CONCLUSION

The proposed predictive model had great potential in severity prediction of COVID-19 in the ICU. It assisted the ICU clinicians in making timely decisions for the target population.

Therapeutic Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Unresectable Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Data Mining Analysis

Prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is unsatisfactory. Tumor, host, and treatment factors including hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) are intricately involved in the progression of ICC. We aimed to identify profiles associated with disease control rate (DCR) and the prognosis of patients with unresectable ICC by decision tree analysis. We analyzed 31 consecutive patients with unresectable ICC (median age, 71 years; the male ratio was 58.1%). Stage IVB occupied 51.6% of patients, and 38.7% and 58.1% of patients were treated with gemcitabine plus cisplatin combination therapy and HAIC, respectively. Profiles associated with prognosis as well as DCR were investigated by decision tree analysis. The median survival time (MST) of the patients was 11.6 months, and the DCR was 70.9%. Multivariate correlation analysis showed that albumin levels and WBC levels were significantly correlated with survival time (albumin, ρ = 0.3572, p = 0.0485; WBC, ρ = -0.4008, p = 0.0280). In decision tree analysis, WBC level was selected as the initial split variable, and subjects with WBC levels of 6800/μL or less (45.1%) showed a long survival time (MST 476 days). We also demonstrated that the profile associated with the highest DCR was "less than 4.46 mg/dL of CRP levels and treatment with HAIC". We demonstrated a new prognostic profile for ICC patients, which consisted of WBC and CRP levels. Moreover, we demonstrated that HAIC was associated with better disease control in ICC patients with low CPR levels. Thus, these new profiles may be useful for the management of ICC patients.

Preoperative C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio predicts long-term outcomes in extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Systemic inflammation may have prognostic value in some malignancies and association with lymph node metastasis. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of systemic inflammatory biomarkers on long-term and oncological outcomes as well as to assess the association between biomarkers with lymph node metastasis in extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 271 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Poor prognostic factors were compared to identify the biomarkers that were most associated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) using receiver operating characteristic curves and multivariable analysis. Furthermore, we evaluated the relationship between biomarkers and lymph node metastasis.

RESULTS

Four and two biomarkers were predictive for OS and DFS, respectively, among which, the C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR) had the highest area under the curve values (OS: 0.631, DFS: 0.624). Multivariable analysis showed that a high CAR was an independent prognostic factor for both OS and DFS (P = .002 and P < .001, respectively). Although a high CAR was not significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis (P = .645), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 showed a significant correlation (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative CAR is the most accurate prognostic factor for OS and DFS in extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients and is independent of lymph node metastasis.

Association of inflammatory biomarkers with long-term outcomes after curative surgery for mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Inflammatory biomarkers such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are reportedly predictive of the long-term outcomes of several cancers. We evaluated their correlations with the post-surgical long-term outcomes of patients with mass-forming (MF) intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

METHODS

The subjects of this study were 52 patients who underwent hepatic resection for MF-ICC at our hospital. We measured the cutoff values of NLR, LMR and PLR, using receiver operating characteristic curves, and compared the survival rates of patients with high vs. those with low values. We also evaluated a prognostic scoring system based on significant inflammatory biomarkers.

RESULTS

The cutoff values for NLR, LMR, and PLR were 1.93, 4.78, and 98, respectively. The high-NLR and low-LMR groups had significantly worse prognoses than the low-NLR and high-LMR groups. We designed a scoring system using the inflammation score (IS) based on NLR and LMR values, stratifying patients into three groups with scores of 0, 1, or 2. The IS was significantly correlated with overall survival (OS), with 5-year survival rates by the IS score of 100% for 0, 61% for 1, and 32% for 2 (P = 0.011). The IS was found to be an independent predictor of OS in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our IS scoring system may predict long-term outcomes after surgery for MF-ICC.

The prognostic value of the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio for high-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma

Background and Aims

The prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is highly variable, even for high-risk cases. The predictive and prognostic role of the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) has been reported in other cancers. The aim of our present study was to explore the value of LMR prognostic prediction in high-risk PTC patients.

Patients and Methods

Two hundred and twenty-four PTC high-risk cases at West China Hospital were randomized into a training set (112 cases) and testing set (112 cases), while 48 cases in Shang Jin Nan Fu Hospital were included as the external validation set.

Results

A lower preoperative LMR correlated with larger tumor size, advanced N and M stages, and an increased number of multiple PTC cases in the training, testing, and validation sets (all P<0.05 in the three sets). Patients with a high LMR exhibited significantly improved overall and PTC-free survival compared with those of patients with a low LMR in the training, testing, validation, and combined sets (all P<0.05 in the individual and combined sets). Moreover, multivariate analyses identified the LMR as an independent prognostic factor for overall and PTC-free survival. The nomograms for predicting the 5-year mortality and PTC recurrence were developed based on the risk factors in the training set and validated in the independent testing and validation sets.

Conclusion

The preoperative LMR was identified as an independent prognostic factor that could be incorporated into the two nomograms with other risk factors to predict overall survival and PTC-free survival for individual patients.