Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and challenges for future plant health

Biotechnology and Genomic Approaches to Mitigating Disease Impacts on Forest Health

Outbreaks of insects and diseases are part of the natural disturbance regime of all forests. However, introduced pathogens have had outsized impacts on many dominant forest tree species over the past century. Mitigating these impacts and restoring these species are dilemmas of the modern era. Here, we review the ecological and economic impact of introduced pathogens, focusing on examples in North America. We then synthesize the successes and challenges of past biotechnological approaches and discuss the integration of genomics and biotechnology to help mitigate the effects of past and future pathogen invasions. These questions are considered in the context of the transgenic American chestnut, which is the most comprehensive example to date of how biotechnological tools have been used to address the impacts of introduced pathogens on naïve forest ecosystems.

Towards Pathogen-Free Coconut Germplasm Exchange

Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) is an important palm species that serves as the mainstay of several industries and contributes to the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. International exchange of coconut germplasm has been undertaken for several decades to facilitate the conservation of selected varieties within global genebanks and for the distribution to farmers and scientists. In vitro systems are a convenient and an efficient method for the exchange of coconut germplasm. However, it is possible that these tissue culture systems can transfer lethal pathogens causing a threat to the importing countries. In this review, the following topics are discussed: the major disease-causing agents of concern, the various tissues that could be used for coconut germplasm exchange, and the techniques available for the detection and elimination of disease-causing agents from various transmission systems. Additionally, the lack of clear, science-backed guidelines to facilitate the exchange of in vitro coconut materials is raised, along with recommendations for future studies to ensure the safe movement of coconut germplasm without biosecurity risks.

The Need and Opportunity to Update the Inventory of Plant Pathogenic Fungi and Oomycetes in Mexico

Mexico generates specific phytosanitary regulations for each product and origin to prevent the entry of quarantine pests and/or delay their spread within the national territory, including fungi and oomycetes. Phytosanitary regulations are established based on available information on the presence or absence of these pathogens in the country; however, the compilation and precise analysis of reports is a challenging task due to many publications lacking scientific rigor in determining the presence of a taxon of phytosanitary interest in the country. This review evaluated various studies reporting the presence of plant pathogenic fungi and oomycetes in Mexico and concluded that some lists of diseases and phytopathogenic organisms lack technical-scientific basis. Thus, it highlights the need and presents an excellent opportunity to establish a National Collection of Fungal Cultures and a National Herbarium for obligate parasites, as well as to generate a National Database of Phytopathogenic Fungi and Oomycetes present in Mexico, supported by the combination of morphological, molecular, epidemiological, pathogenicity, symptom, and micrograph data. If realized, this would have a direct impact on many future applications related to various topics, including quarantines, risk analysis, biodiversity studies, and monitoring of fungicide resistance, among others.

Trade impacts of external border measures under the European Union's plant health legislation

BACKGROUND

This article assesses whether the European Union's (EU's) plant health regulations have had an impact on imports. A dynamic modelling approach was applied, using a two-step generalized method of moments estimator for panel data, and covering an 8-year period (2013-2020). The estimated equation includes volumes of trade, economic drivers, the trading partner, and variables capturing categories of import requirements (phytosanitary certificates, exemptions, restrictions) with regards to external border measures for enhanced biosecurity.

RESULTS

From the analysis we can conclude that the import regime and its recent changes have had a limited impact, if any, on trade flows of the affected products. The most significant impact is found for products classified as high-risk plants, while the extension of the phytosanitary certificate requirement to new products seems to have had negligible effects on trade.

CONCLUSION

Therefore, the plant protection regime for extra-EU trade seems to be not trade distorting while supplying a framework to enhance plant health in the EU. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Decoding the physiological response of plants to stress using deep learning for forecasting crop loss due to abiotic, biotic, and climatic variables

This paper presents a simple method for detecting both biotic and abiotic stress in plants. Stress levels are measured based on the increase in nutrient uptake by plants as a mechanism of self-defense when under stress. A continuous electrical resistance measurement was used to estimate the rate of change of nutrients in agarose as the growth medium for Cicer arietinum (Chickpea) seeds. To determine the concentration of charge carriers in the growth medium, Drude's model was used. For identifying anomalies and forecasting plant stress, two experiments were conducted and outliers were found in electrical resistance and relative changes in carrier concentration. Anomaly in the first iteration was detected by applying k-Nearest Neighbour, One Class Support Vector Machine and Local Outlier Factor in unsupervised mode on electrical resistance data. In the second iteration, the neural network-based Long Short Term Memory method was used on the relative change in the carrier concentration data. As a result of the change in resistance of growth media during stress, nutrient concentrations shifted by 35%, as previously reported. Farmers who cater to small communities around them and are most affected by local and global stress factors can use this method of forecasting.

Phytosanitary Rules for the Movement of Olive (Olea europaea L.) Propagation Material into the European Union (EU)

Phytosanitary legislation involves government laws that are essential to minimize the risk of the introduction and diffusion of pests, especially invasive non-native species, as a consequence of the international exchange of plant material, thus allowing us to safeguard agricultural production and biodiversity of a territory. These measures ensure compliance with adequate requirements relating to the absence of pests, especially of harmful quarantine organisms through inspections and diagnosis tests of the consignments to ascertain the presence of the pests concerned. They also regulate the eradication and containment measures that are implemented in the eventuality of an unintentional introduction of these organisms. In the present contribution, the current plant protection legislation for the exchange of plants or propagation material within the European Union or for export to foreign countries, represented by Regulation (EU) 2016/2031, has been reviewed, with a particular focus on the olive tree (Olea europaea L.). Furthermore, a brief summary of the main olive tree pests transmissible with the propagation material is also reported, indicating their current categorization with respect to the relative quarantine status.

Global dispersal and diversity of rust fungi in the context of plant health

Long-distance dispersal of plant pathogens at the continental scale may have strong implications on plant health, in particular when incursions result in spread of disease to new territories where the disease was previously absent or insignificant. These dispersions may be caused by airborne transmission of spores or accidental spread via human travel and trade. Recent surveillance efforts of cereal rust fungi have demonstrated that incursion of new strains with superior fitness into areas where the disease is already established may have similar implications on plant health. Since dispersal events are highly stochastic, irrespective of transmission mechanism, critical mitigation efforts include preparedness by coordinated pathogen surveillance activities, host crop diversification, and breeding for disease resistance with low vulnerability to sudden changes in the pathogen population.

Factors impacting the detection of weed seed contaminants in seed lots

BACKGROUND

The setting and following of phytosanitary standards for weed seeds can lessen the impacts of weeds on agriculture. Standards adopted by seed companies, laboratories and regulators ensure the contamination rates do not exceed some thresholds. Globally sample size standards are set based on the amount needed to obtain a contaminant in a random sample of the seed lot, not detectability. New Zealand requires a 95% confidence that the maximum pest limit of 0.01% of quarantine weed seed contamination is not exceeded in an imported seed lot. We examined 24 samples each containing approximately 150 000 seeds of either perennial ryegrass (12 samples) or white clover seeds (12 samples) that were then spiked with seeds (contaminants) from 12 non-crop species (3-8 seeds of each). We considered factors that may impact detection rates: shape, color, size, and texture relative to the crop, and technician (including a commercial seed laboratory).

RESULTS

A linear mixed model fitted to the data indicated significant observer, crop, and seed color, shape, and size effects on detection. Detectability increased by 20% ± 7.7 (± standard error) when seeds had a distinct shape or color (28% ± 8.1), or were larger (23% ± 8.7) rather than smaller, relative to the crop. Commercial laboratory identifications were usually correct at the level of genus, and species for common weeds, but some misidentifications occurred.

CONCLUSION

Sample sizes for border inspections should be based on detectability of regulated weed seeds in the crop in combination with weed risk for the crop and location. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade and travel; thus, the need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades of research and implementation of preborder, border, and postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, with no evidence of saturation, and are even predicted to accelerate. In this article, we review biosecurity measures used to mitigate the arrival, establishment, spread, and impacts of non-native forest insects and possible impediments to the successful implementation of these measures. Biosecurity successes are likely under-recognized because they are difficult to detect and quantify, whereas failures are more evident in the continued establishment of additional non-native species. There are limitations in existing biosecurity systems at global and country scales (for example, inspecting all imports is impossible, no phytosanitary measures are perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, and noncompliance is an ongoing problem). Biosecurity should be a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, and individuals.

Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models

Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW’s present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.

Microeukaryotic Communities on the Fruit of Gardenia thunbergia Thunb. with a Focus on Pathogenic Fungi

Woody fruit which stay on ornamental plants for a long time may present a risk of infection to other organisms due to the presence of pathogens on their surface. We compared the microbe communities on the fruit surfaces of garden ornamental Gardenia thunbergia Thunb. with those on other surfaces in the study region. As Gardenia fruit contain antifungal substances, the focus of this study was on the fungal communities that exist thereon. We used Illumina sequencing to identify Amplicon Sequence Variants (ASV) of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) of the ribosomal RNA. The microbial communities of the Gardenia fruit are distinct from the communities from the surrounding environments, indicating a specialized microhabitat. We employed clustering methods to position unidentified ASVs relative to known ASVs. We identified a total of 56 ASVs representing high risk fungal species as putative plant pathogens exclusively found on the fruit of Gardenia. Additionally, we found several ASVs representing putative animal or human pathogens. Those pathogens were distributed over distinct fungi clades. The infection risk of the high diversity of putative pathogens represented on the Gardenia fruit needs to be elucidated in further investigations.

Phytosanitary Interventions for Safe Global Germplasm Exchange and the Prevention of Transboundary Pest Spread: The Role of CGIAR Germplasm Health Units

The inherent ability of seeds (orthodox, intermediate, and recalcitrant seeds and vegetative propagules) to serve as carriers of pests and pathogens (hereafter referred to as pests) and the risk of transboundary spread along with the seed movement present a high-risk factor for international germplasm distribution activities. Quarantine and phytosanitary procedures have been established by many countries around the world to minimize seed-borne pest spread by screening export and import consignments of germplasm. The effectiveness of these time-consuming and cost-intensive procedures depends on the knowledge of pest distribution, availability of diagnostic tools for seed health testing, qualified operators, procedures for inspection, and seed phytosanitation. This review describes a unique multidisciplinary approach used by the CGIAR Germplasm Health Units (GHUs) in ensuring phytosanitary protection for the safe conservation and global movement of germplasm from the 11 CGIAR genebanks and breeding programs that acquire and distribute germplasm to and from all parts of the world for agricultural research and food security. We also present the challenges, lessons learned, and recommendations stemming from the experience of GHUs, which collaborate with the national quarantine systems to export and distribute about 100,000 germplasm samples annually to partners located in about 90 to 100 countries. Furthermore, we describe how GHUs adjust their procedures to stay in alignment with evolving phytosanitary regulations and pest risk scenarios. In conclusion, we state the benefits of globally coordinated phytosanitary networks for the prevention of the intercontinental spread of pests that are transmissible through plant propagation materials.

Institutional approaches for plant health provision as a collective action problem

The provision of plant health has public good attributes when nobody can be excluded from enjoying its benefits and individual benefits do not reduce the ability of others to also benefit. These attributes increase risk of free-riding on plant health services provided by others, giving rise to a collective action problem when trying to ensure plant health in a region threatened by an emerging plant disease. This problem has traditionally been addressed by government intervention, but top-down approaches to plant health are often insufficient and are increasingly combined with bottom-up approaches that promote self-organization by affected individuals. The challenge is how to design plant health institutions that effectively deal with the spatial and temporal dynamics of plant diseases, while staying aligned with the preferences, values and needs of affected societies. Here, we illustrate how Ostrom’s design principles for collective action can be used to guide the incorporation of bottom-up approaches to plant health governance in order to improve institutional fit. Using the ongoing epidemic of huanglongbing (HLB) as a case study, we examine existing institutions designed to ensure citrus health under HLB in Brazil, Mexico, the United States and Argentina, and discuss potential implications of Ostrom’s design principles for the collective provision of plant health under HLB and other plant diseases that are threatening food security worldwide. The discussion leads to an outline for the interdisciplinary research agenda that would be needed to establish the link between institutional approaches and plant health outcomes in the context of global food security.

Biosecurity: tools, behaviours and concepts

COVID 19 has raised the profile of biosecurity. However, biosecurity is not only about protecting human life. This issue brings together mini-reviews examining recent developments and thinking around some of the tools, behaviours and concepts around biosecurity. They illustrate the multi-disciplinary nature of the subject, demonstrating the interface between research and policy. Biosecurity practices aim to prevent the spread of harmful organisms; recognising that 2020 is the International Year of Plant Health, several focus on plant biosecurity although invasive species and animal health concerns are also captured. The reviews show progress in developing early warning systems and that plant protection organisations are increasingly using tools that compare multiple pest threats to prioritise responses. The bespoke modelling of threats can inform risk management responses and synergies between meteorology and biosecurity provide opportunities for increased collaboration. There is scope to develop more generic models, increasing their accessibility to policy makers. Recent research can improve pest surveillance programs accounting for real-world constraints. Social science examining individual farmer behaviours has informed biosecurity policy; taking a broader socio-cultural approach to better understand farming networks has the potential to change behaviours in a new way. When encouraging public recreationists to adopt positive biosecurity behaviours communications must align with their values. Bringing together the human, animal, plant and environmental health sectors to address biosecurity risks in a common and systematic manner within the One Biosecurity concept can be achieved through multi-disciplinary working involving the life, physical and social sciences with the support of legislative bodies and the public.

Pest categorisation of Leptinotarsa decemlineata

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) for the EU. L. decemlineata is primarily known as a major defoliator of potatoes (Solanum tuberosum); feeding damage can result in significant yield loss. Field grown tomatoes and eggplants can be attacked and wild solanaceous species are also hosts. Having first established in Europe from North America in the early 20th century, L. decemlineata is now distributed in 21 EU Member States and is regulated in the EU by Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072, (Annex III) with protected zones in place for Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, Northern Ireland, parts of Spain (Ibiza and Menorca) and Portugal (Azores and Madeira), seven districts of Finland and five counties in Sweden. Adults occasionally enter some protected zones due to wind currents that carry flying adults; pathways are also provided by plant produce moved in trade. The availability of hosts and suitable climate make establishment of the pest possible in protected zones in the EU, especially in the southern EU. Spread within the protected zones could occur via adult flight and via leafy vegetables moved in trade. Impacts on potato yields would be expected within the protected zones; outdoor grown tomatoes and eggplants could be impacted in the protected zones of southern Member States too. Previous incursions into the current protected zones have been eradicated. L. decemlineata satisfies all of the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess, to conclude that it is a potential protected zone quarantine pest. L. decemlineata does not satisfy all of the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess with respect to regulated non-quarantine pest status, specifically plants for planting are not the main means of spread.

The emergence of prioritisation systems to inform plant health biosecurity policy decisions

The management of risk is fundamental to biosecurity. Potential pest risks must be recognised early, with appropriate measures taken to prevent or reduce the potential damage a non-native species can cause. Risk registers are a recognised tool to support risk management, especially in project management or governance of corporate risk. The use of risk registers and risk prioritisation systems in the plant health biosecurity sphere has emerged in recent years driven by the recognition that resources to assess pest risks in detail are scarce, and biosecurity actions need to be targeted and prioritised. Individual national plant protection organisations have consequently developed a variety of tools that prioritise and rank plant pests, typically taking likelihood of pest entry, establishment, spread and impact into account. They use expert opinion to give scores to risk elements within a framework of multi-criteria decision analysis to rank pests based on the prioritisation aims of users. Knowing that biosecurity extends beyond national borders we recognise that such systems would add value to global efforts to detect and share information on emerging pests to better target actions against pests to protect plant biosecurity.

Harmonising the fields of invasion science and forest pathology

Invasive alien species are widely recognised as significant drivers of global environmental change, with far reaching ecological and socio-economic impacts. The trend of continuous increases in first records, with no apparent sign of saturation, is consistent across all taxonomic groups. However, taxonomic biases exist in the extent to which invasion processes have been studied. Invasive forest pathogens have caused, and they continue to result in dramatic damage to natural forests and woody ecosystems, yet their impacts are substantially underrepresented in the invasion science literature. Conversely, most studies of forest pathogens have been undertaken in the absence of a connection to the frameworks developed and used to study biological invasions. We believe this is, in part, a consequence of the mechanistic approach of the discipline of forest pathology; one that has been inherited from the broader discipline of plant pathology. Rather than investigating the origins of, and the processes driving the arrival of invasive microorganisms, the focus of pathologists is generally to investigate specific interactions between hosts and pathogens, with an emphasis on controlling the resulting disease problems. In contrast, central to the field of invasion science, which finds its roots in ecology, is the development and testing of general concepts and frameworks. The lack of knowledge of microbial biodiversity and ecology, speciation and geographic origin present challenges in understanding invasive forest pathogens under existing frameworks, and there is a need to address this shortfall. Advances in molecular technologies such as gene and genome sequencing and metagenomics studies have increased the “visibility” of microorganisms. We consider whether these technologies are being adequately applied to address the gaps between forest pathology and invasion science. We also interrogate the extent to which the two fields stand to gain by becoming more closely linked.

Many unreported crop pests and pathogens are probably already present

Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75-0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability >0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

Many unreported crop pests and pathogens are probably already present

Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75-0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability >0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

EU Legislation on Forest Plant Health: An Overview with a Focus on Fusarium circinatum

The increase in arrivals of new forest pests highlights the need for effective phytosanitary legislation and measures. This paper introduces legislation targeted at prevention and management of potential introductions of forest pests and pathogens. An overview is given on plant health regulations on global and regional level with detailed information on the situation in the European Union (EU). The current and new European legislation is discussed, and a particular focus is given on eradication and contingency plans for Fusarium circinatum. We identified key aspects relevant for the improvement of the efficacy of measures aimed to prevent alien pests.

Entomological Opportunities and Challenges for Sustainable Viticulture in a Global Market

Viticulture has experienced dramatic global growth in acreage and value. As the international exchange of goods has increased, so too has the market demand for sustainably produced products. Both elements redefine the entomological challenges posed to viticulture and have stimulated significant advances in arthropod pest control programs. Vineyard managers on all continents are increasingly combating invasive species, resulting in the adoption of novel insecticides, semiochemicals, and molecular tools to support sustainable viticulture. At the local level, vineyard management practices consider factors such as the surrounding natural ecosystem, risk to fish populations, and air quality. Coordinated multinational responses to pest invasion have been highly effective and have, for example, resulted in eradication of the moth Lobesia botrana from California vineyards, a pest found in 2009 and eradicated by 2016. At the global level, the shared pests and solutions for their suppression will play an increasing role in delivering internationally sensitive pest management programs that respond to invasive pests, climate change, novel vector and pathogen relationships, and pesticide restrictions.

Sustainable Management of Plant Quarantine Pests: The Case of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome

The disease outbreak of Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca strain CoDiRO (Complesso del Disseccamento Rapido dell’Olivo) in Salento (Apulia, South Italy) associated with severe cases of olive quick decline syndrome may represent not just a new disease paradigm, but a challenge for policy formulation and science communication in plant pathology. Plant health management can be achieved by applying a technocratic model, in which objective science is thought to directly inform policy-making, or via decisionistic or inclusive models, in which scientific considerations drive risk assessment. Each could be applied to X. fastidiosa and CoDiRO strain management, thanks to consistent literature related to pathogen/host interactions, hosts, vectors, and diagnostic tools, reviewed here. However, consensus among stakeholders seems to be necessary in order to avoid plant health management failures or gridlocks, due to environmental, economic, and social implications in the X. fastidiosa threat. Here we discuss the role of consensus in building scientific opinion, reporting different approaches of governance after severe disease outbreaks in Europe. These case studies, and the available risk analysis for Xylella strains, should drive policy formulations towards more cooperative networks.

Nonnative forest insects and pathogens in the United States: Impacts and policy options

We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

Possibility to implement invasive species control in Swedish forests

Invasive alien species constitute an increasing risk to forestry, as indeed to natural systems in general. This study reviews the legislative framework governing invasive species in the EU and Sweden, drawing upon both a legal analysis and interviews with main national level agencies responsible for implementing this framework. The study concludes that EU and Sweden are limited in how well they can act on invasive species, in particular because of the weak interpretation of the precautionary principle in the World Trade Organisation and Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreements. In the Swedish case, this interpretation also conflicts with the stronger interpretation of the precautionary principle under the Swedish Environmental Code, which could in itself provide for stronger possibilities to act on invasive species.

Forest health in a changing world

Forest pathology, the science of forest health and tree diseases, is operating in a rapidly developing environment. Most importantly, global trade and climate change are increasing the threat to forest ecosystems posed by new diseases. Various studies relevant to forest pathology in a changing world are accumulating, thus making it necessary to provide an update of recent literature. In this contribution, we summarize research at the interface between forest pathology and landscape ecology, biogeography, global change science and research on tree endophytes. Regional outbreaks of tree diseases are requiring interdisciplinary collaboration, e.g. between forest pathologists and landscape ecologists. When tree pathogens are widely distributed, the factors determining their broad-scale distribution can be studied using a biogeographic approach. Global change, the combination of climate and land use change, increased pollution, trade and urbanization, as well as invasive species, will influence the effects of forest disturbances such as wildfires, droughts, storms, diseases and insect outbreaks, thus affecting the health and resilience of forest ecosystems worldwide. Tree endophytes can contribute to biological control of infectious diseases, enhance tolerance to environmental stress or behave as opportunistic weak pathogens potentially competing with more harmful ones. New molecular techniques are available for studying the complete tree endobiome under the influence of global change stressors from the landscape to the intercontinental level. Given that exotic tree diseases have both ecologic and economic consequences, we call for increased interdisciplinary collaboration in the coming decades between forest pathologists and researchers studying endophytes with tree geneticists, evolutionary and landscape ecologists, biogeographers, conservation biologists and global change scientists and outline interdisciplinary research gaps.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens

Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 ± 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens.

Network epidemiology and plant trade networks

Models of epidemics in complex networks are improving our predictive understanding of infectious disease outbreaks. Nonetheless, applying network theory to plant pathology is still a challenge. This overview summarizes some key developments in network epidemiology that are likely to facilitate its application in the study and management of plant diseases. Recent surveys have provided much-needed datasets on contact patterns and human mobility in social networks, but plant trade networks are still understudied. Human (and plant) mobility levels across the planet are unprecedented-there is thus much potential in the use of network theory by plant health authorities and researchers. Given the directed and hierarchical nature of plant trade networks, there is a need for plant epidemiologists to further develop models based on undirected and homogeneous networks. More realistic plant health scenarios would also be obtained by developing epidemic models in dynamic, rather than static, networks. For plant diseases spread by the horticultural and ornamental trade, there is the challenge of developing spatio-temporal epidemic simulations integrating network data. The use of network theory in plant epidemiology is a promising avenue and could contribute to anticipating and preventing plant health emergencies such as European ash dieback.

Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments.

Infectious diseases of animals and plants: an interdisciplinary approach

Animal and plant diseases pose a serious and continuing threat to food security, food safety, national economies, biodiversity and the rural environment. New challenges, including climate change, regulatory developments, changes in the geographical concentration and size of livestock holdings, and increasing trade make this an appropriate time to assess the state of knowledge about the impact that diseases have and the ways in which they are managed and controlled. In this paper, the case is explored for an interdisciplinary approach to studying the management of infectious animal and plant diseases. Reframing the key issues through incorporating both social and natural science research can provide a holistic understanding of disease and increase the policy relevance and impact of research. Finally, in setting out the papers in this Theme Issue, a picture of current and future animal and plant disease threats is presented.

Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy.