Lack of Prognostic Value of SARS-CoV2 RT-PCR Cycle Threshold in the Community

Trend of viral load during the first, second, and third wave of COVID-19 in the Indian Himalayan region: an observational study of the Uttarakhand state

India had faced three waves throughout the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which had already impacted economic lives and affected the healthcare setting and infrastructure. The widespread impacts have inspired researchers to look for clinical indicators of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection prognosis. Cyclic threshold values have been used to correlate the viral load in COVID-19 patients and for viral transmission. In light of this correlation, a retrospective study was conducted to assess the trend of viral load in clinical and demographic profiles across the three waves. Data of a total of 11,125 COVID-19-positive patients were obtained, which had a Ct value of <35. We stratified Ct values as follows: under 25 (high viral load), 25-30 (moderate viral load), and over 30 (low viral load). We found a significantly high proportion of patients with high viral load during the second wave. A significantly high viral load across the symptomatic and vaccinated populations was found in all three waves, whereas a significantly high viral load across age groups was found only in the first wave. With the widespread availability of real-time PCR and the limited use of genomic surveillance, the Ct value and viral load could be a suitable tool for population-level monitoring and forecasting.

Associations of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values with age, gender, sample collection setting, and pandemic period

Cycle threshold (Ct) values in COVID-19 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests estimate the viral load in biological samples. Studies have investigated variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral load, aiming to identify factors associated with higher transmissibility. Using the results from tests performed between May/2020-July/2022 obtained from the database of a referent hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, we investigated associations between Ct values and patient's age, gender, sample collection setting and pandemic period according to the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant locally. We also examined variations in Ct values, COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and vaccination coverage over time. The study sample included 42,741 tests. Gender was not significantly associated with Ct values. Age, sample collection setting and the pandemic period were significantly associated with Ct values even after adjustment to the multivariable model. Results showed lower Ct values in older groups, during the Gamma and Delta periods, and in samples collected in emergency units; and higher Ct values in children under 10 years old, home-based tests, during the Omicron period. We found evidence of a linear trend in the association between age and Ct values, with Ct values decreasing as age increases. We found no clear temporal associations between Ct values and local indicators of COVID-19 incidence, mortality, or vaccination between February/2020-November/2022. Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 Ct values, a proxy for viral load and transmissibility, can be influenced by demographic and epidemiological variables.

Evaluation of the cycle threshold values of RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients in predicting epidemic dynamics and monitoring surface contamination

To evaluate the application of cycle threshold (Ct) values of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in predicting epidemic dynamics and monitoring surface contamination. The Ct value of reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for SARS‑CoV-2 from COVID-19 patients inbound overseas in Xiamen, China was collected from October 2020 to December 2021, and the correlation of patients' Ct values with epidemic dynamics and surface contamination was evaluated. The results showed that there was an extreme inverse correlation of positivity rate in the current calendar month (ORF1ab, r = -0.692, P = 0.004; N,r = -0.629, P = 0.012) and the following calendar month (ORF1ab,r = -0.801, P = 0.001; N,r = -0.620, P = 0.018) with the median Ct values. Ct value showed better performance for monitoring surface contamination, with the area under the curve value 0.808(95 %CI: 0.748-0.869) for ORF1ab and 0.807(95 %CI:0.746-0.868) for the N gene. The patients' ORF1ab Ct value< 29.09 or N Ct value< 28_.03 were 11.25 times and 10.48 times more likely to result in surface contamination than those with ORF1ab Ct value ≥ 29.09 or N Ct value≥ 28.03 (OR:11_.25,95 % CI: 5.52-22.35; OR:10.48,95 % CI:5.29-20.70). Ct values were associated with the positivity rate in the current or following calendar month and predicted the epidemic dynamics. The Ct values can be used as a predictor for monitoring surface contamination to develop public health responses to COVID-19.

Laboratory Considerations for Reporting Cycle Threshold Value in COVID-19

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 RNA virus. Nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) is the mainstay to confirm infection. A large number of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays are currently available for qualitatively assessing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although these assays show variation in cycle threshold values (Ct), advocacy for reporting Ct values (in addition to the qualitative result) is tabled to guide patient clinical management decisions. This article provides critical commentary on qualitative RT-PCR laboratory and clinical considerations for Ct value reporting. Factors contributing to Ct variation are discussed by considering relevant viral life-cycle factors, patient factors and the laboratory total testing processes that contribute to the Ct variation and mitigate against the reporting of Ct values by qualitative NAAT.