Economic Consequences of Investing in Anti-HCV Antiviral Treatment from the Italian NHS Perspective: A Real-World-Based Analysis of PITER Data

Screening strategy to advance HCV elimination in Italy: a cost-consequence analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Italy has the greatest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Western Europe. The screening strategy represents a crucial prevention tool to achieve HCV elimination in Italy. We evaluated the cost-consequences of different screening strategies for the diagnosis of HCV active infection in the birth cohort 1948-1968 to achieve the HCV elimination goal.

METHODS

We designed a probabilistic model to estimate the clinical, and economic outcomes of different screening coverage uptakes, considering the direct costs of HCV management according to each liver fibrosis stage, in the Italian context. A decision probabilistic tree simulates 4 years of HCV testing of the 1948-1968 general population birth cohort, (15,485,565 individuals to be tested) considering different coverage rates. A No-screening scenario was compared with two alternative screening scenarios that represented different coverage rates each year: (1) Incremental approach (coverage rates equal to 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% at years 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) and (2) Fast approach (50% coverage rate at years 1, 2, 3 and 4). Overall 106,200 cases were previously estimated to have an HCV active infection. A liver disease progression Markov model was considered for an additional 6 years (horizon-time 10 years).

RESULTS

The highest increased number of deaths and clinical events are reported for the No-screening scenario (21,719 cumulative deaths at the end of ten years; 10,148 cases with HCC and/or 7618 cases with Decompensated Cirrhosis). Following the Fast-screening scenario, the reductions in clinical outcomes and deaths were higher compared with No-screening and Incremental-screening. At ten years time horizon, less than 5696 liver deaths (PSA CI95%: - 3873 to 7519), 3,549 HCC (PSA CI95%: - 2413 to 4684) and less than 3005 liver decompensations (PSA CI 95%: - 2104 to 3907) were estimated compared with the Incremental-scenario. The overall costs of the Fast-screening, including the costs of the DAA and liver disease management of the infected patients for 10 years, are estimated to be € 43,107,543 more than no-investment in screening and € 62,289,549 less compared with the overall costs estimated by the Incremental-scenario.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to guarantee dedicated funds and efficiency of the system for the cost-efficacious screening of the 1948-1968 birth cohort in Italy. A delay in HCV diagnosis and treatment in the general population, yet not addressed for the HCV free-of-charge screening, will have important clinical and economic consequences in Italy.

Milestones to reach Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination in Italy: From free-of-charge screening to regional roadmaps for an HCV-free nation

Although Italy has been on track for Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination since 2019, it fell off track due to the decrease in the number of treated patients. HCV elimination in Italy will be possible if immediate action is taken. A health policy was implemented beginning in 2021, consisting of screening among key populations and birth cohorts (1969-1989), estimated to have a high prevalence of undiagnosed individuals. The active screening requires regional governance that manages the processes' complexity integrating a well-organized network between territory assistance and hospital to achieve an effective HCV care cascade. This document aims to support the regional decision-making process by defining paths for screening and linkage-to-care. Implementing active screening strategies beyond a risk-based approach is required as a General Practitioners' task. Simplified paths must be drawn for the key populations screening. The infrastructure built for COVID-19 vaccination could be used also for HCV screening. According to a multidisciplinary care delivery, screening should be supplemented with rapid linkage-to-care and treatment of newly diagnosed patients. The realization of the proactive screening during the first two years is vital because it will define the tracks for the whole HCV cost-effective screening of 1948-1988 birth cohorts in Italy.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Economic Consequences of Anti-HCV Treatment of Patients Diagnosed Through Screening in Italy: A Prospective Modelling Analysis

AIM

To evaluate the cost-consequences of the investment for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment by the Italian National Health System (NHS) for patients who will be newly diagnosed through active HCV screening, implemented in Italy from 2020.

METHODS

A previously published Markov model was used to estimate the disease complications avoided and the associated savings over 20 years to treat a standardised population of 10,000 HCV-infected patients diagnosed as a result of screening. Disease progression probabilities and fibrosis stage distribution were based on previously reported data in the literature. Real-life treatment effectiveness and medical expenses for disease management were estimated starting from a representative cohort of HCV-treated patients in Italy (Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies). The breakeven point in time (BPT) was defined as the years required for the initial investment in treatment to be recovered in terms of cumulative costs saved.

RESULTS

Over a 20-year time horizon, the treatment of 10,000 standardized patients diagnosed through active HCV screening results in 7769 avoided events of progression, which are associated with €838.73 million net savings accrued by the Italian NHS. The initial investment in treatment is recouped in 4.3 years in the form of savings from disease complications avoided.

CONCLUSION

Investment in treatment of newly diagnosed patients will bring a significant reduction in disease complications, which is associated with great economic benefits. This type of action can reduce the infection rate as well as the clinical and economic disease burden of HCV in Italy.

Optimizing diagnostic algorithms to advance Hepatitis C elimination in Italy: A cost effectiveness evaluation

OBJECTIVES

Optimized diagnostic algorithms to detect active infections are crucial to achieving HCV elimination. We evaluated the cost effectiveness and sustainability of different algorithms for HCV active infection diagnosis, in a context of a high endemic country for HCV infection.

METHODS

A Markov disease progression model, simulating six diagnostic algorithms in the birth cohort 1969-1989 over a 10-year horizon from a healthcare perspective was used. Conventionally diagnosis of active HCV infection is through detection of antibodies (HCV-Ab) detection followed by HCV-RNA or HCV core antigen (HCV-Ag) confirmatory testing either on a second sample or by same sample reflex testing. The undiagnosed and unconfirmed rates were evaluated by assays false negative estimates and each algorithm patients' drop-off. Age, liver disease stages distribution, liver disease stage costs, treatment effectiveness and costs were used to evaluate the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

RESULTS

The reference option was Rapid HCV-Ab followed by second sample HCV-Ag testing which produced the lowest QALYs (866,835 QALYs). The highest gains in health (QALYs=974,458) was obtained by HCV-RNA reflex testing which produced a high cost-effective ICER (€891/QALY). Reflex testing (same sample-single visit) vs two patients' visits algorithms, yielded the highest QALYs and high cost-effective ICERs (€566 and €635/QALY for HCV-Ag and HCV-RNA, respectively), confirmed in 99.9% of the 5,000 probabilistic simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm, by a cost effectiveness point of view, the EASL and WHO clinical practice guidelines recommending HCV reflex testing as most cost effective diagnostic option vs other diagnostic pathways.

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain.

METHODS

An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed.

RESULTS

The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from € 45 to € 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries.

CONCLUSION

Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts.

Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy.

METHODS

A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV. The model-estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV was used to calculate the antibody screens needed annually, with a €25 000 cost-effectiveness threshold. Outcomes were assessed under the status quo and a scenario that met the World Health Organization's targets for elimination of HCV. The elimination scenario was assessed under five screening strategies.

RESULTS

A graduated birth cohort screening strategy (graduated screening 1: 1968-1987 birth cohorts, then expanding to 1948-1967 cohorts) was the least costly. This strategy would gain approximately 144 000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 2031 and result in an 89.3% reduction in HCV cases, compared to an 89.6%, 89.0%, 89.7% and 88.7% reduction for inversed graduated screening, 1948-77 birth cohort, 1958-77 birth cohort and universal screening, respectively. Graduated screening 1 yielded the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3552 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

In Italy, a graduated screening scenario is the most cost-effective strategy. Other countries could consider a similar birth cohort approach when developing HCV screening strategies.

Efficacy and safety of a fixed dose combination tablet of asunaprevir + beclabuvir + daclatasvir for the treatment of Hepatitis C

Introduction: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to infect approximately 70 million people worldwide. If left untreated, chronic infection can progress to cirrhosis, liver failure or hepatocellular carcinoma. The advent of new direct-acting antivirals (DAA) has revolutionized patients' chances of treatment and viral elimination. Currently, several DAA options are available on the market.Areas covered: This review focuses on the pharmacokinetics, efficacy, tolerability and safety profile of DCV-TRIO, a twice-daily fixed-dose combination of daclatasvir, asunaprevir and beclabuvir approved in Japan for the treatment of genotype 1 HCV infection.Expert opinion: The DCV-TRIO combination achieved good response rates in genotype 1 patients (SVR12 ≥ 95% in naïve subtype 1b), independently from IL28B genotype, cirrhotic status and prior interferon exposure. On the other hand, unsatisfying response rates were reported in DAA-experienced patients and the risk of RAS selection should not be underestimated. Moreover, DCV-TRIO lacks differentiation from its earlier-launched DAA rivals, presents an inconvenient twice-daily dosing schedule and is not recommended in patients with advanced liver and kidney disease. All these drawbacks considerably limit its effective commercial potential. However, it can be a therapeutic option against HCV in tailored approaches according to the needs of different markets across the world.Abbreviations AE: adverse event; ALT: alanine aminotransferase; AST: aspartate aminotransferase; ASV: asunaprevir; AUC: area under the curve; BCRP: Breast Cancer Resistance Protein; BCV: boceprevir; BID: bis in die; CI: confidence intervals; CLcr: creatinine clearance; DAA: direct acting antivirals; DCV: daclatasvir; EC50: Half maximal effective concentration; GT: genotype; HCV: Hepatitis C virus; IFN: Interferon; NHL: non-Hodgkin lymphoma; OATP: Organic anion transporting polypeptides; OR: odds ratio; P-gp: P-glycoprotein; PK: pharmacokinetics; QD: quo die; RAS: resistance-associated substitutions; SVR: sustained virological response; USD: Unites States dollar.