Implications of Covid-19 for Labour and Employment in India

COVID-19 pandemic and unemployment rate prediction for developing countries of Asia: A hybrid approach

Unemployment is an essential problem for developing countries, which has a direct and major role in economy of a country. Understanding the pattrens of unemployment rate is critical now a days and has drawn attention of researcher from all fields of study across the globe. As unemployment plays an important role in the planning of a country's monetary progress for policymakers and researcher. Determining the unemployment rate efficiently required an advance modeling approach. Recently,numerous studies have relied on traditional testing methods to estimate the unemployment rate. Unemployment is usually nonstationary in nature. As a result, demonstrating them using traditional methods will lead to unpredictable results. It needs a hybrid approach to deal with the prediction of unemployment rate in order to deal with the issue associated with traditional techniques. This research primary goal is to examine the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the unemployment rate in selected countries of Asia through advanced hybrid modeling approach, using unemployment data of seven developing countries of Asian: Iran, Sri Lanka; Bangladesh; Pakistan; Indonesia; China; and India,and compare the results with conventional modeling approaches. Finding shows that the hybrid ARIMA-ARNN model outperformed over its competitors for Asia developing economies. In addition, the best fitted model was utilised to predict five years ahead unemployment rate. According to the findings, unemployment will rise significantly in developing economies in the next years, and this will have a particularly severe impact on the region's economies that aren't yet developed.

Anxiety and depression among adult tobacco users during the COVID-19 restrictions in India

Background

The world witnessed a highly contagious and deadly disease, COVID-19, toward the end of 2019. India is one of the worst affected countries. We aimed to assess anxiety and depression levels among adult tobacco users and people who recently quit tobacco during COVID-19 lockdown in India.

Materials and methods

The study was conducted across two Indian cities, Delhi and Chennai (July-August, 2020) among adult tobacco users (n = 801). Telephonic interviews were conducted using validated mental health tools (Patient Health Questionnaire-PHQ-9 and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-GAD-7) to assess the anxiety and depression levels of the participants. Descriptive analysis and multiple logistic regression were used to study the prevalence and correlates of depression and anxiety.

Results

We found that 20.6% of tobacco users had depression symptoms (3.9% moderate to severe); 20.7% had anxiety symptoms (3.8% moderate to severe). Risk factors associated with depression and anxiety included food, housing, and financial insecurity.

Conclusion

During COVID-19 lockdown, mental health of tobacco users (primarily women) was associated with food, housing and financial insecurity. The Indian Government rightly initiated several health, social and economic measures to shield the most vulnerable from COVID-19, including a ban on the sale of tobacco products. It is also necessary to prioritize universal health coverage, expanded social security net, tobacco cessation and mental health services to such vulnerable populations during pandemic situations.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Vulnerability of Construction Workers During COVID-19: Tracking Welfare Responses and Challenges

This paper takes stock of the cash assistance provided by the government to construction workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the role of the state construction welfare board has been crucial, some existing issues related to boards and challenges emerged during the crisis have also been discussed. Results show that cash benefit through direct benefit transfer has partially helped workers to overcome their financial distress, but 65% workers did not receive any benefit due to various issues related to registration and seeding of bank accounts with Aadhar. Sluggish process of registration has been a major issue which is being addressed by different mechanisms, but results would be known later. Proper cess collection and its utilisation is still an important issue as 61% of the cess collected in 2019 was not utilised. Even during the crisis, 15% cess was used at most in direct benefit transfer and in-kind (food distribution) support. Majority of the states are running a number of welfare schemes, but the coverage is poor despite proper guidelines set under the Model Welfare Framework of the Ministry of Labour and Employment. The objectives of Mission Mode Projects are appreciable, but the outcomes are not known even after the completion of deadlines. Above all, the emerging issues of maintaining health and hygiene at worksite and living place and getting vaccinated are major challenges for the sustainability of the construction sector. Hence, a collective effort of the government, employers, and workers' organisations is the need of the hour.

Risk of COVID-19 Transmission and Livelihood Challenges of Stranded Migrant Labourers during Lockdown in India

The lockdown during the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic in India triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Labourers in the informal sector lost their jobs overnight and were stuck at their work places. The present study examines the risk of COVID-19 transmission among stranded migrant labourers and their livelihood challenges during  the lockdown. A telephonic survey was conducted during the lockdown of first wave of COVID-19 pandemic to collect information from the stranded migrant labourers. The non-probability snowball sampling technique and structured questionnaire were used to draw the sample. Simple frequency distribution and standard statistical methods were used to accomplish the study objectives. The factors of COVID-19 transmission such as poor housing, co-morbidities, poor practice of WASH and COVID-19 precautions were significantly high among the migrant labourers. The lockdown created livelihood crisis among them. For instance, ration shortage (86%), financial distress (82%), reduction of wages (13%), job loss (86%) and anxiety for COVID-19 infection (81%) were often seen. Many of the labourers did not receive any ration kits (30%) and financial assistance (86%) during lockdown. The governmental assistance to overcome the stranded migrant labourers’ challenges during lockdown was less than desirable. India needs to frame a sustainable and effective policy for social security for labourers, particularly in emergency situations.

Multi-sectoral impact assessment during the 1st wave of COVID-19 pandemic in West Bengal (India) for sustainable planning and management

With the advancement of globalisation, urbanisation and environmental change, the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as an infectious disease, has become a global threat. The entire world is continuously trying to adapt to the pandemic situation due to the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 and the lockdown phase, which has not been faced before. The fear of infection by such an unknown virus and the epidemic transformed the built-up environment and impacted various sectors of lives and livelihoods, which must be assessed in spatial perspectives. The objective of this research is to assess the multi-sectoral impact due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, it is designed to inspect seven essential sectors, namely, the economy, employment, education, transport, travel and tourism, health and environment sector-wise impact assessment of the West Bengal state of India. Taking the required COVID-19 data from the government website of India (http://www.covid19india.org; https://www.mygov.in/corona-data/covid19-statewise-status) and West Bengal (https://covidindia.org/west-bengal), a methodology is proposed on an integrated framework for the multi-sectoral impact assessment. The study concentrates on West Bengal, as no study exists on the multi-sectoral impact assessment due to the COVID-19 pandemic during the 1st wave, especially using the geospatial platform. The economy, employment, education, transport, health, tourism and environment multi-sectors of West Bengal are selected in this research, as these sectors have built the economic, sociocultural and environmental pillars of the state. All these sectors have been seriously affected, and the nature of the impact is diverse and large. Before the vaccine comes into the hands of the common people of West Bengal and in a broad sense in India, the awareness should be increased at the grass-root level to fight against the pandemic situation and even after the post-COVID era. The application of geospatial technology used for the mapping and analysis of COVID-19 affects the related database to tease out the multidimensional study, which aims to plan future road maps, search for answers and learn to add further security to overcome the future virus attack.