Climate change challenges IUCN conservation priorities: a test with western Mediterranean amphibians

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.

Generation of raptor diversity in Europe: linking speciation with climate changes and the ability to migrate

Europe holds a rich community of diurnal birds of prey, and the highest proportion of transcontinental migratory raptorial species of any landmass. This study will test the hypotheses that the high diversification of the raptor assemblage in Europe is a recent event, that closely related species sharing the same trophic niches can only coexist in sympatry during the breeding period, when food availability is higher, and finally that migration is a function of size, with the smaller species in every trophic group moving further. A consensus molecular phylogeny for the 38 regular breeding species of raptors in Europe was obtained from BirdTree (www.birdtree.org). For the same species, a trophic niche cluster dendrogram was constructed. Size and migratory strategy were introduced in the resulting phylogeny, where trophic groups were also identified. Multispecific trophic groups tended to be composed of reciprocal sister species of different sizes, while monospecific groups (n = 3) were composed of highly specialized species. Many speciation events took place recently, during the glacial cycles of the Quaternary, and size divergence among competing species may be due to character displacement. Nowadays, the smaller species in every trophic group migrate to sub-Saharan Africa. This investigation illustrates how the rich assemblage of diurnal birds of prey in Europe, more diverse and more migratory than, for instance, the North American assemblage at equivalent latitudes, has emerged recently due to the multiplication of look-alike species with similar trophic ecologies, possibly in climate refugia during cold periods.

Tree Species Composition and Forest Community Types along Environmental Gradients in Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Myanmar: Implications for Action Prioritization in Conservation

The identification of forest community types is essential for prioritizing choices and targets in species and community conservation purposes amid climate change impacts on forest community dynamics. Here, we determined the tree species composition, species diversity, and the forest community types across contrasting topographic and edaphic conditions in Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary (HWS), Myanmar. All tree species with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥10 cm were recorded in 66 plots (625 m²), from which the species diversity, density, frequency, dominance, and importance value (IV) of each tree species were measured. The soil hardness (Hd), bulk density (BD), moisture content (MC), organic matter content (OM), texture, pH, total N, and available P, K, Ca, Na, and Mg concentrations were also analyzed. The elevation (ELV) and slope (SLP) were also measured as the topographic factors. Cluster analysis resulted in five distinct forest communities and the soil Ca, Mg, clay proportion, soil hardness, and elevation were the major influencing factors. The species diversity in HWS ranged from low to very high relative values, with 209 tree species belonging to 119 genera and 55 families. Identification of these community types and understanding the diversity levels and major factors influencing the community structure may play a key role in the planning, prioritization, and implementation of species and community conservation strategies amid the unpredictable impacts of climate change on forest community dynamics.

Species versus within-species niches: a multi-modelling approach to assess range size of a spring-dwelling amphibian

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to estimate potential geographic ranges and derive indices to assess species conservation status. However, habitat-specialist species require fine-scale range estimates that reflect resource dependency. Furthermore, local adaptation of intraspecific lineages to distinct environmental conditions across ranges have frequently been neglected in SDMs. Here, we propose a multi-stage SDM approach to estimate the distributional range and potential area of occupancy (pAOO) of Neurergus kaiseri, a spring-dwelling amphibian with two climatically-divergent evolutionary lineages. We integrate both broad-scale climatic variables and fine-resolution environmental data to predict the species distribution while examining the performance of lineage-level versus species-level modelling on the estimated pAOO. Predictions of habitat suitability at the landscape scale differed considerably between evolutionary level models. At the landscape scale, spatial predictions derived from lineage-level models showed low overlap and recognised a larger amount of suitable habitats than species-level model. The variable dependency of lineages was different at the landscape scale, but similar at the local scale. Our results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale resolution approaches, as well as intraspecific genetic structure of taxa to estimate pAOO. The flexible procedure presented here can be used as a guideline for estimating pAOO of other similar species.