Cross-Scale Approaches to Forecasting Biogeographic Responses to Climate Change

Physiologically informed organismal climatologies reveal unexpected spatiotemporal trends in temperature

Body temperature is universally recognized as a dominant driver of biological performance. Although the critical distinction between the temperature of an organism and its surrounding habitat has long been recognized, it remains common practice to assume that trends in air temperature-collected via remote sensing or weather stations-are diagnostic of trends in animal temperature and thus of spatiotemporal patterns of physiological stress and mortality risk. Here, by analysing long-term trends recorded by biomimetic temperature sensors designed to emulate intertidal mussel temperature across the US Pacific Coast, we show that trends in maximal organismal temperature ('organismal climatologies') during aerial exposure can differ substantially from those exhibited by co-located environmental data products. Specifically, using linear regression to compare maximal organismal and environmental (air temperature) climatologies, we show that not only are the magnitudes of body and air temperature markedly different, as expected, but so are their temporal trends at both local and biogeographic scales, with some sites showing significant decadal-scale increases in organismal temperature despite reductions in air temperature, or vice versa. The idiosyncratic relationship between the spatiotemporal patterns of organismal and air temperatures suggests that environmental climatology cannot be statistically corrected to serve as an accurate proxy for organismal climatology. Finally, using quantile regression, we show that spatiotemporal trends vary across the distribution of organismal temperature, with extremes shifting in different directions and at different rates than average metrics. Overall, our results highlight the importance of quantifying changes in the entire distribution of temperature to better predict biological performance and dispel the notion that raw or 'corrected' environmental (and specially air temperature) climatologies can be used to predict organismal temperature trends. Hence, despite their widespread coverage and availability, the severe limitations of environmental climatologies suggest that their role in conservation and management policy should be carefully considered.

The impacts of climate change on the biomechanics of animals: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented variability in a broad range of environmental parameters. These changes will impact material properties and animal biomechanics, thereby affecting animal performance and persistence of populations. Climate change implies warming at the global level, and it may be accompanied by altered wind speeds, wave action, ocean circulation, acidification as well as increased frequency of hypoxic events. Together, these environmental drivers affect muscle function and neural control and thereby movement of animals such as bird migration and schooling behaviour of fish. Altered environmental conditions will also modify material properties of animals. For example, ocean acidification, particularly when coupled with increased temperatures, compromises calcified shells and skeletons of marine invertebrates and byssal threads of mussels. These biomechanical consequences can lead to population declines and disintegration of habitats. Integrating biomechanical research with ecology is instrumental in predicting the future responses of natural systems to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services such as fisheries and ecotourism.

Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts

The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.

The effect of global climate change on the future distribution of economically important macroalgae (seaweeds) in the northwest Atlantic

An increase in greenhouse gas emissions has led to a rise in average global air and ocean temperatures. Increased sea surface temperatures can cause changes in species’ distributions, particularly those species close to their thermal tolerance limits. We use a bioclimate envelope approach to assess potential shifts in the range of marine macroalgae harvested in North American waters: rockweed ( Fucus vesiculosus Linnaeus, 1753), serrated wrack ( Fucus serratus Linnaeus, 1753), knotted wrack ( Ascophyllum nodosum (Linnaeus) Le Jolis, 1863), carrageen moss ( Chondrus crispus Stackhouse, 1797), and three kelp species ( Laminaria digitata (Hudson) J.V. Lamouroux, 1813; Saccharina latissima (Linnaeus) C.E. Lane, C. Mayes, Druehl et G.W. Saunders, 2006; and Saccharina longicruris (Bachelot de la Pylaie) Kuntze, 1891). We determined species’ thermal limits from the current sea surface temperatures associated with their geographical distributions. Future distributions were based on sea surface temperatures projected for the year ∼2100 by four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and earth system models for regional concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Future distributions based on RCP 8.5 indicate that the presence of all but rockweed ( F. vesiculosus) is likely to be threatened by warming waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Range retractions of macroalgae will have significant ecological and economic effects including impacts on commercial fisheries and harvest rates and losses of floral and faunal biodiversity and production, and should be considered in the designation of marine protected areas.

Plasticity and cross-tolerance to heterogeneous environments: divergent stress responses co-evolved in an African fruit fly

Plastic adjustments of physiological tolerance to a particular stressor can result in fitness benefits for resistance that might manifest not only in that same environment but also be advantageous when faced with alternative environmental stressors, a phenomenon termed 'cross-tolerance'. The nature and magnitude of cross-tolerance responses can provide important insights into the underlying genetic architecture, potential constraints on or versatility of an organism's stress responses. In this study, we tested for cross-tolerance to a suite of abiotic factors that likely contribute to setting insect population dynamics and geographic range limits: heat, cold, desiccation and starvation resistance in adult Ceratitis rosa following acclimation to all these isolated individual conditions prior to stress assays. Traits of stress resistance scored included critical thermal (activity) limits, chill coma recovery time (CCRT), heat knockdown time (HKDT), desiccation and starvation resistance. In agreement with other studies, we found that acclimation to one stress typically increased resistance for that same stress experienced later in life. A more novel outcome, however, is that here we also found substantial evidence for cross-tolerance. For example, we found an improvement in heat tolerance (critical thermal maxima, CT_max ) following starvation or desiccation hardening and improved desiccation resistance following cold acclimation, indicating pronounced cross-tolerance to these environmental stressors for the traits examined. We also found that two different traits of the same stress resistance differed in their responsiveness to the same stress conditions (e.g. HKDT was less cross-resistant than CT_max ). The results of this study have two major implications that are of broader importance: (i) that these traits likely co-evolved to cope with diverse or simultaneous stressors, and (ii) that a set of common underlying physiological mechanisms might exist between apparently divergent stress responses in this species. This species may prove to be a valuable model for future work on the evolutionary and mechanistic basis of cross-tolerance.

Reducing the data-deficiency of threatened European habitats: Spatial variation of sabellariid worm reefs and associated fauna in the Sicily Channel, Mediterranean Sea

Biogenic reefs, such as those produced by tube-dwelling polychaetes of the genus Sabellaria, are valuable marine habitats which are a focus of protection according to European legislation. The achievement of this goal is potentially hindered by the lack of essential empirical data, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. This study addresses some of the current knowledge gaps by quantifying and comparing multi-scale patterns of abundance and distribution of two habitat-forming species (Sabellaria alveolata and S. spinulosa) and their associated fauna along 190 km of coast on the Italian side of the Sicily Channel. While the abundance of the two sabellariids and the total number of associated taxa did not differ at any of the examined scales (from tens of centimetres to tens-100 of kilometres), the structure (composition in terms of both the identity and the relative abundance of constituting taxa) of the associated fauna and the abundance of several taxa (the polychaetes Eulalia ornata, Syllis pulvinata, S. garciai, Nereis splendida and Arabella iricolor, and the amphipods Apolochus neapolitanus, Tethylembos viguieri and Caprella acanthifera) varied among locations established ∼50-100 km apart. Syllis pulvinata also showed significant variation between sites (hundreds of metres apart), analogously to the other syllid polychaetes S. armillaris and S. gracilis, the nereidid polychaete Nereis rava, and the amphipod Gammaropsis ulrici. The largest variance of S. spinulosa, of the structure of the whole associated fauna and of 56% of taxa analysed individually occurred at the scale of replicates (metres apart), while that of the dominant bio-constructor S. alveolata and of 25% of taxa occurred at the scale of sites. The remaining 19% and the total richness of taxa showed the largest variance at the scale of locations. Present findings contribute to meet a crucial requirement of any future effective protection strategy, i.e., identifying relevant scales of variation to be included in protection schemes aiming at preserving representative samples not only of target habitats and organisms, but also of the processes driving such variability.

Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

Connecting the nonlinear and often counterintuitive physiological effects of multiple environmental drivers to the emergent impacts on ecosystems is a fundamental challenge. Unfortunately, the disconnect between the way "stressors" (e.g., warming) is considered in organismal (physiological) and ecological (community) contexts continues to hamper progress. Environmental drivers typically elicit biphasic physiological responses, where performance declines at levels above and below some optimum. It is also well understood that species exhibit highly variable response surfaces to these changes so that the optimum level of any environmental driver can vary among interacting species. Thus, species interactions are unlikely to go unaltered under environmental change. However, while these nonlinear, species-specific physiological relationships between environment and performance appear to be general, rarely are they incorporated into predictions of ecological tipping points. Instead, most ecosystem-level studies focus on varying levels of "stress" and frequently assume that any deviation from "normal" environmental conditions has similar effects, albeit with different magnitudes, on all of the species within a community. We consider a framework that realigns the positive and negative physiological effects of changes in climatic and nonclimatic drivers with indirect ecological responses. Using a series of simple models based on direct physiological responses to temperature and ocean pCO 2, we explore how variation in environment-performance relationships among primary producers and consumers translates into community-level effects via trophic interactions. These models show that even in the absence of direct mortality, mismatched responses resulting from often subtle changes in the physical environment can lead to substantial ecosystem-level change.