Assessing Potential Confounding and Misclassification Bias When Studying the Safety of the Childhood Immunization Schedule

Identification of Spatial Clusters of Undervaccination Patterns Among Children Aged <24 Months Using Immunization Information System Data, Montana, 2015-2019

OBJECTIVE

Spatial clustering of undervaccination leads to increased risk of vaccine-preventable diseases. We identified spatial clustering of undervaccination patterns among children aged <24 months in Montana.

METHODS

We used Montana's immunization information system data to analyze deidentified vaccination records of children aged <24 months born from January 2015 through November 2017. We measured 3 outcomes that were not mutually exclusive: not completing the combined 7-vaccine series by age 24 months, having an undervaccination pattern indicative of parental hesitancy, and having an undervaccination pattern indicative of structural barriers to timely vaccination. Using geomasked residential addresses, we conducted separate Bernoulli spatial scans with a randomization P < .01 to identify spatial clusters consisting of ≥100 children for each outcome and calculated the relative risk of having the undervaccination pattern inside versus outside the cluster.

RESULTS

Of 31 201 children aged <24 months included in our study, 11 712 (37.5%) had not completed the combined 7-vaccine series by age 24 months, and we identified 5 spatial clusters of this outcome across Montana. We identified 4 clusters of undervaccination patterns indicative of parental vaccine hesitancy, all in western Montana. The cluster with the largest relative risk (2.3) had a radius of 23.7 kilometers (n = 762 children, P < .001). We also identified 4 clusters of undervaccination patterns indicative of structural barriers, with 3 of the largest clusters in eastern Montana.

CONCLUSION

In Montana, different strategies to increase routine and timely childhood vaccination are needed in distinct areas of this large and predominantly rural state. Immunization information system data can pinpoint areas where interventions to increase vaccination uptake are needed.

Failure to Complete Multidose Vaccine Series in Early Childhood

BACKGROUND

Most early childhood immunizations require 3 to 4 doses to achieve optimal protection. Our objective was to identify factors associated with starting but not completing multidose vaccine series.

METHODS

Using 2019 National Immunization Survey-Child data, US children ages 19 to 35 months were classified in 1 of 3 vaccination patterns: (1) completed the combined 7-vaccine series, (2) did not initiate ≥1 of the 7 vaccine series, or (3) initiated all series, but did not complete ≥1 multidose series. Associations between sociodemographic factors and vaccination pattern were evaluated using multivariable log-linked binomial regression. Analyses accounted for the survey's stratified design and complex weighting.

RESULTS

Among 16 365 children, 72.9% completed the combined 7-vaccine series, 9.9% did not initiate ≥1 series, and 17.2% initiated, but did not complete ≥1 multidose series. Approximately 8.4% of children needed only 1 additional vaccine dose from 1 of the 5 multidose series to complete the combined 7-vaccine series. The strongest associations with starting but not completing multidose vaccine series were moving across state lines (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.79), number of children in the household (2 to 3: aPR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05-1.58; 4 or more: aPR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.30-2.18), and lack of insurance coverage (aPR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.42-2.91).

CONCLUSIONS

More than 1 in 6 US children initiated but did not complete all doses in multidose vaccine series, suggesting children experienced structural barriers to vaccination. Increased focus on strategies to encourage multidose series completion is needed to optimize protection from preventable diseases and achieve vaccination coverage goals.

Beyond Vaccination Coverage: Population-Based Measurement of Early Childhood Immunization Schedule Adherence

The immunization schedule recommended by the U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) provides a structure for how 10 different vaccine series should be administered to children in the first 18 months of life. Progress toward US early childhood immunization goals has largely focused on measuring vaccination coverage at age 24 months. However, standard vaccination coverage measures do not reflect whether children received vaccine doses by recommended ages, or whether vaccines were given concomitantly, per the schedule. In this paper, we describe innovations in population-level measurement of immunization schedule adherence through quantifying vaccination timeliness and undervaccination patterns. Measuring vaccination timeliness involves comparing when children received vaccine doses relative to ACIP age recommendations. To assess undervaccination patterns, children's vaccination histories are analyzed to determine whether they were vaccinated consistent with the ACIP schedule. Some patterns, such as spreading out vaccines across visits, are indicative of parental hesitancy. Other patterns, such as starting all recommended series but missing doses, are largely indicative of other immunization services delivery challenges. Since 2003, at least 12 studies have used National Immunization Survey-Child, immunization information system, or integrated health plan data to measure vaccination timeliness or undervaccination patterns at national or state levels. Moving forward, these novel measures can be leveraged for population-based surveillance of vaccine confidence, and for distinguishing undervaccination due to parental vaccine hesitancy from undervaccination due to other causes. Broader adoption of these measures can facilitate identification of targeted strategies for improving timely and routine early childhood vaccination uptake across the United States.

Association Between Aluminum Exposure From Vaccines Before Age 24 Months and Persistent Asthma at Age 24 to 59 Months

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between cumulative aluminum exposure from vaccines before age 24 months and persistent asthma at age 24 to 59 months.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). Vaccination histories were used to calculate cumulative vaccine-associated aluminum in milligrams (mg). The persistent asthma definition required one inpatient or 2 outpatient asthma encounters, and ≥2 long-term asthma control medication dispenses. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the association between aluminum exposure and asthma incidence, stratified by eczema presence/absence. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 1 mg increase in aluminum exposure were calculated, adjusted for birth month/year, sex, race/ethnicity, VSD site, prematurity, medical complexity, food allergy, severe bronchiolitis, and health care utilization.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 326,991 children, among whom 14,337 (4.4%) had eczema. For children with and without eczema, the mean (standard deviation [SD]) vaccine-associated aluminum exposure was 4.07 mg (SD 0.60) and 3.98 mg (SD 0.72), respectively. Among children with and without eczema, 6.0% and 2.1%, respectively, developed persistent asthma. Among children with eczema, vaccine-associated aluminum was positively associated with persistent asthma (aHR 1.26 per 1 mg increase in aluminum, 95% CI 1.07, 1.49); a positive association was also detected among children without eczema (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25).

CONCLUSION

In a large observational study, a positive association was found between vaccine-related aluminum exposure and persistent asthma. While recognizing the small effect sizes identified and the potential for residual confounding, additional investigation of this hypothesis appears warranted.

Vaccine timeliness and prevalence of undervaccination patterns in children ages 0-19 months, U.S., National Immunization Survey-Child 2017

OBJECTIVES

Typically, early childhood vaccination coverage in the U.S. is measured as the proportion of children by age 24 months who completed recommended vaccine series. However, these measures do not reflect whether vaccine doses were received at the ages recommended by the U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or whether children received vaccines concomitantly, per the ACIP recommended schedule. This study's objective was to quantify vaccine timeliness and prevalence of specific patterns of undervaccination in U.S. children ages 0-19 months.

METHODS

Using 2017 National Immunization Survey-Child data, we calculated days undervaccinated for the combined 7-vaccine series and distinguished undervaccination patterns indicative of parental vaccine hesitancy, such as spreading out vaccines across visits ("shot-limiting") or starting some but not all recommended vaccine series ("selective vaccination"), from other non-hesitancy patterns, such as missing final vaccine doses or receiving all doses, with some or all late. We measured associations between demographic, socioeconomic and other characteristics with undervaccination patterns using multivariable log-linked binomial regression. Analyses accounted for the complex survey design.

RESULTS

Among n = 15,333 U.S. children, only 41.2% received all recommended vaccine doses on-time by age 19 months. Approximately 20.9% of children had an undervaccination pattern suggestive of parental vaccine hesitancy, and 36.2% had other undervaccination non-hesitancy patterns. Uninsured children and those with lower levels of maternal education were more likely to exhibit undervaccination patterns suggestive of parental hesitancy. Lower levels of maternal education were also associated with other non-hesitancy undervaccination patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of children in the U.S. are undervaccinated at some point by 19 months of age. Ongoing assessment of vaccine timeliness and immunization schedule adherence could facilitate timely and targeted public health interventions in populations with high levels of undervaccination.

Temporal Trends in Undervaccination: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Monitoring the trends in undervaccination, including that because of parental vaccine refusal or delay, can inform public health responses directed at improving vaccine confidence and vaccination coverage.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. The cohort included all children born in 2004-2017 with ≥3 well-child visits between ages 2 and 23 months. Using electronic health record-based vaccination data, the average days undervaccinated was calculated for each child. Undervaccination patterns were assessed through age 23 months. Temporal trends were inspected for inflection points and were analyzed using linear regression. Nested within the cohort study, a survey was conducted to compare parent reports of vaccine refusal or delay with observed vaccination patterns. Data were analyzed in 2020.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 808,170 children. The percentage of children with average days undervaccinated=0 (fully vaccinated, no delays) rose from a nadir of 47.1% for the birth year 2008 to 68.4% for the birth year 2017 (p_trend<0.001). The percentage with no vaccines rose from 0.35% for the birth year 2004 to 1.28% for the birth year 2017 (p_trend<0.001). Consistent vaccine limiting was observed in 2.04% for the birth year 2017. Omission of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine peaked at 4.76% in the birth year 2007 and declined thereafter (p_trend<0.001). On the parent survey (response rate 60.2%), a high proportion of parents of the most undervaccinated children reported refusing or delaying vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

In a 14-year cohort study, vaccination timeliness has improved. However, the small but increasing number of children who received no vaccines by age 23 months warrants additional attention.

Sensitivity analyses of unmeasured and partially-measured confounders using multiple imputation in a vaccine safety study

PURPOSE

Sensitivity analyses have played an important role in pharmacoepidemiology studies using electronic health records data. Despite the existence of quantitative bias analysis in pharmacoepidemiologic studies, simultaneously adjusting for unmeasured and partially measured confounders is challenging in vaccine safety studies. Our objective was to develop a flexible approach for conducting sensitivity analyses of unmeasured and partially-measured confounders concurrently for a vaccine safety study.

METHODS

We derived conditional probabilities for an unmeasured confounder based on bias parameters, used these conditional probabilities and Monte Carlo simulations to impute the unmeasured confounder, and re-constructed the analytic datasets as if the unmeasured confounder had been observed. We simultaneously imputed a partially measured confounder using a prediction model. We considered unmeasured breastfeeding and partially measured family history of Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) in a study examining the association between exposure to rotavirus vaccination and T1DM.

RESULTS

Before sensitivity analyses, the hazard ratios (HR) were 1.50 (95% CI, 0.81-2.77) for those partially exposed and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.62-1.72) for those fully exposed with unexposed children as the referent group. When breastfeeding and family history of T1DM were adjusted, the HR was 1.55 (95% CI, 0.84-2.87) for the partially exposed group; the HR was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.58-1.63) for the fully exposed group.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that adjusting for unmeasured breastfeeding and partially measured family history of T1DM did not alter the conclusion that there was no evidence of association between rotavirus vaccination and developing T1DM. This novel approach allows for simultaneous adjustment for multiple unmeasured and partially-measured confounders.

Association Between Rotavirus Vaccination and Type 1 Diabetes in Children

IMPORTANCE

Because rotavirus infection is a hypothesized risk factor for type 1 diabetes, live attenuated rotavirus vaccination could increase or decrease the risk of type 1 diabetes in children.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether there is an association between rotavirus vaccination and incidence of type 1 diabetes in children aged 8 months to 11 years.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study of 386 937 children born between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2014, was conducted in 7 US health care organizations of the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Eligible children were followed up until a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, disenrollment, or December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Rotavirus vaccination for children aged 2 to 8 months. Three exposure groups were created. The first group included children who received all recommended doses of rotavirus vaccine by 8 months of age (fully exposed to rotavirus vaccination). The second group had received some, but not all, recommended rotavirus vaccines (partially exposed to rotavirus vaccination). The third group did not receive any doses of rotavirus vaccines (unexposed to rotavirus vaccination).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence of type 1 diabetes among children aged 8 months to 11 years. Type 1 diabetes was identified by International Classification of Diseases codes: 250.x1, 250.x3, or E10.xx in the outpatient setting. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze time to type 1 diabetes incidence from 8 months to 11 years. Hazard ratios and 95% CIs were calculated. Models were adjusted for sex, race/ethnicity, birth year, mother's age, birth weight, gestational age, number of well-child visits, and Vaccine Safety Datalink site.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 386 937 children (51.1% boys and 41.9% non-Hispanic white), 360 169 (93.1%) were fully exposed to rotavirus vaccination, 15 765 (4.1%) were partially exposed to rotavirus vaccination, and 11 003 (2.8%) were unexposed to rotavirus vaccination. Children were followed up a median of 5.4 years (interquartile range, 3.8-7.8 years). The total person-time follow-up in the cohort was 2 253 879 years. There were 464 cases of type 1 diabetes in the cohort, with an incidence rate of 20.6 cases per 100 000 person-years. Compared with children unexposed to rotavirus vaccination, the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.62-1.72) for children fully exposed to rotavirus vaccination and 1.50 (95% CI, 0.81-2.77) for children partially exposed to rotavirus vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that rotavirus vaccination does not appear to be associated with type 1 diabetes in children.