Climate change in forest ecosystems: A field experiment addressing the effects of raising temperature and reduced rainfall on early life cycle stages of oaks

Twenty-five years of Open-Top Chambers in tropical environments: where, how, and what are we looking at regarding flora response to climate change?

MAIN CONCLUSION

Open-Top Chambers should be more used in tropical ecosystems to study climate change effects in plants as they are still insufficient to extract plant response patterns in these ecosystems. Understanding flora response to climate change (CC) is critical for predicting future ecosystem dynamics. Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to study the effects of CC on plants and are very popular in temperate ecosystems but are still underused in tropical regions. In this systematic review, we aimed to discuss the use of OTCs in the study of the effects of different agents of climate change on tropical flora by presenting scientometric data, discussing the technical aspects of its use and enumerating some observations on plant response patterns to climatic alterations in the tropics. Our analysis indicated that the bottleneck in choosing an OTC shape is not strictly related to its purpose or the type of parameter modulated; instead, passive or active approaches seem to be a more sensitive point. The common critical point in using this technique in warmer regions is overheating and decoupling, but it can be overcome with simple adaptations and extra features. The most frequently parameter modulated was CO2, followed by O3 and temperature. The plant families with more representatives in the studies analyzed were Fabaceae, Myrtaceae, and Poaceae, and the most represented biome was tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. In conclusion, OTCs are a valuable and feasible tool to study CC effects on various tropical ecosystems, regardless of structure, active/passive approach, or other technical features. One of the primary advantages of this methodology is its applicability for in situ use, eliminating the need for plant transplantation. We encourage studies using OTC experimental design for plant conservation in the tropics.

Climate and fragment area jointly affect the annual dynamics of seedlings in different functional groups in the Thousand Island Lake

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are the two main threats to global biodiversity. Understanding their combined impact on plant community regeneration is vital for predicting future forest structure and conserving biodiversity. This study monitored the seed production, seedling recruitment and mortality of woody plants in the Thousand Island Lake, a highly fragmented anthropogenic archipelago, for 5 years. We analyzed the seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and mortality of different functional groups in the fragmented forests and conducted correlation analyses involving climatic factors, island area, and plant community abundance. Our results showed that: 1) shade-tolerant and evergreen species had higher seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and survival rate than shade-intolerant and deciduous species in time and space, and these advantages increased with the island area. 2) Seedlings in different functional groups responded differently to island area, temperature and precipitation. 3) Increasing active accumulated temperature (the sum of the mean daily temperature above 0 °C) significantly increased seedling recruitment and survival, and warming climate favored the regeneration of evergreen species. 4) The seedling mortality rate of all plant functional groups increased with the increase of island area, but the increasing strength weakened significantly with the increase of the annual maximum temperature. These results suggested that the dynamics of woody plant seedlings varied among functional groups, and can be regulated separately and jointly by fragmentation and climate.

Recruitment of pioneer trees with physically dormant seeds under climate change: the case of Vachellia pennatula (Fabaceae) in semiarid environments of Mexico

Most tree species native to arid and semiarid ecosystems produce seeds with physical dormancy, which have impermeable coats that protect them from desiccation and prevent germination when the environmental conditions are unfavorable for seedling establishment. This dormancy mechanism may confer some degree of tolerance to seeds facing warmer and drier conditions, as those expected in several regions of the world because of climate change. Scarification of these seeds (removal of protective coats) is required for stimulating germination and seedling development. However, as scarification exposes seeds to the external environmental conditions, it can promote desiccation and viability loss in the future. To test these hypotheses, we performed field experiments and sowed scarified and unscarified seeds of a pioneer tree native to semiarid ecosystems of Mesoamerica (Vachellia pennatula) under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. The experiments were conducted at abandoned fields using open-top chambers to increase temperature and rainout shelters to reduce rainfall. We measured microenvironmental conditions within the experimental plots and monitored seedling emergence and survival during a year. Air temperature and rainfall in climate change simulations approached the values expected for the period 2041-2080. Seedling emergence rates under these climatic conditions were lower than under the current climate. Nevertheless, emergence rates in climate change simulations were even lower for scarified than for unscarified seeds, while the converse occurred under the current climate. On the other hand, although survival rates in climate change simulations were lower than under the current climate, no effects of the scarification treatment were found. In this way, our study suggests that climate change will impair the recruitment of pioneer trees in semiarid environments, even if they produce seeds with physical dormancy, but also indicates that these negative effects will be stronger if seeds are scarified.

Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche

The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.

Metagenomic Insight into the Community Structure of Maize-Rhizosphere Bacteria as Predicted by Different Environmental Factors and Their Functioning within Plant Proximity

The rhizosphere microbiota contributes immensely to nutrient sequestration, productivity and plant growth. Several studies have suggested that environmental factors and high nutrient composition of plant's rhizosphere influence the structural diversity of proximal microorganisms. To verify this assertion, we compare the functional diversity of bacteria in maize rhizosphere and bulk soils using shotgun metagenomics and assess the influence of measured environmental variables on bacterial diversity. Our study showed that the bacterial community associated with each sampling site was distinct, with high community members shared among the samples. The bacterial community was dominated by Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, Bacteroidetes and Verrucomicrobia. In comparison, genera such as Gemmatimonas, Streptomyces, Conexibacter, Burkholderia, Bacillus, Gemmata, Mesorhizobium, Pseudomonas and Micromonospora were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) high in the rhizosphere soils compared to bulk soils. Diversity indices showed that the bacterial composition was significantly different across the sites. The forward selection of environmental factors predicted N-NO₃ (p = 0.019) as the most influential factor controlling the variation in the bacterial community structure, while other factors such as pH (p = 1.00) and sulfate (p = 0.50) contributed insignificantly to the community structure of bacteria. Functional assessment of the sampling sites, considering important pathways viz. nitrogen metabolism, phosphorus metabolism, stress responses, and iron acquisition and metabolism could be represented as Ls > Rs > Rc > Lc. This revealed that functional hits are higher in the rhizosphere soil than their controls. Taken together, inference from this study shows that the sampling sites are hotspots for biotechnologically important microorganisms.

Projection of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during growing seasons under climate change scenarios

Like many other African countries, incidence of drought is increasing in Nigeria. In this work, spatiotemporal changes in droughts under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were assessed; considering their greatest impacts on life and livelihoods in Nigeria, especially when droughts coincide with the growing seasons. Three entropy-based methods, namely symmetrical uncertainty, gain ratio, and entropy gain were used in a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select the best performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the projection of rainfall and temperature. Performance of four widely used bias correction methods was compared to identify a suitable method for correcting bias in GCM projections for the period 2010–2099. A machine learning technique was then used to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected GCM projection for different RCP scenarios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was subsequently computed to estimate droughts from the MME mean of GCM projected rainfall and temperature to predict possible spatiotemporal changes in meteorological droughts. Finally, trends in the SPEI, temperature and rainfall, and return period of droughts for different growing seasons were estimated using a 50-year moving window, with a 10-year interval, to understand driving factors accountable for future changes in droughts. The analysis revealed that MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and CESM1-CAM5 are the most appropriate GCMs for projecting rainfall and temperature, and the linear scaling (SCL) is the best method for correcting bias. The MME mean of bias-corrected GCM projections revealed an increase in rainfall in the south-south, southwest, and parts of the northwest whilst a decrease in the southeast, northeast, and parts of central Nigeria. In contrast, rise in temperature for entire country during most of the cropping seasons was projected. The results further indicated that increase in temperature would decrease the SPEI across Nigeria, which will make droughts more frequent in most of the country under all the RCPs. However, increase in drought frequency would be less for higher RCPs due to increase in rainfall.