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Lima CG, Campos JC, Regos A, Honrado JP, Fernandes PM, Freitas TR, Santos JA, Vicente JR. Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change. J Environ Manage 2024; 359:120997. [PMID: 38692031 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2023] [Revised: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024]
Abstract
Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cristina G Lima
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto. Rua Padre Armando Quintas nº 7, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-641, Vila do Conde, Portugal; Departmento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 1021 1055, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal.
| | - João C Campos
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto. Rua Padre Armando Quintas nº 7, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-641, Vila do Conde, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; CICGE - Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal
| | - Adrián Regos
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto. Rua Padre Armando Quintas nº 7, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-641, Vila do Conde, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal; Centre de Ciencia i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), Ctra. St. Llorenç de Morunys km 2, Solsona, 25280, Spain
| | - João P Honrado
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto. Rua Padre Armando Quintas nº 7, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-641, Vila do Conde, Portugal; Departmento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 1021 1055, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Paulo M Fernandes
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal
| | - Teresa R Freitas
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal
| | - João A Santos
- Centre for the Research and Technology of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal
| | - Joana R Vicente
- CIBIO-InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto. Rua Padre Armando Quintas nº 7, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-641, Vila do Conde, Portugal; Departmento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 1021 1055, 4169-007, Porto, Portugal; BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
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Nikkel E, Clements DR, Anderson D, Williams JL. Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change. Biol Invasions 2023; 25:3805-3822. [PMID: 37854296 PMCID: PMC10579163 DOI: 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Nikkel
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
| | - David R. Clements
- Department of Biology, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC Canada
| | - Delia Anderson
- Department of Biology, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC Canada
| | - Jennifer L. Williams
- Department of Geography and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
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Guerra-Coss FA, Badano EI, Cedillo-Rodríguez IE, Ramírez-Albores JE, Flores J, Barragán-Torres F, Flores-Cano JA. Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche. Sci Total Environ 2021; 777:146007. [PMID: 33684753 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Revised: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco A Guerra-Coss
- IPICYT/División de Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Colonia Lomas 4ª Sección, 78216 San Luis Potosí, SLP, Mexico
| | - Ernesto I Badano
- IPICYT/División de Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Colonia Lomas 4ª Sección, 78216 San Luis Potosí, SLP, Mexico.
| | - Isaac E Cedillo-Rodríguez
- Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Río Papaloapan y Boulevard Durango s/n, Colonia Valle del Sur, 34120 Durango, DGO, Mexico
| | - Jorge E Ramírez-Albores
- Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, El Cerrillo-Piedras Blancas, 50200 Toluca de Lerdo, MEX, Mexico
| | - Joel Flores
- IPICYT/División de Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Colonia Lomas 4ª Sección, 78216 San Luis Potosí, SLP, Mexico
| | - Felipe Barragán-Torres
- CONACYT-IPICYT/División de Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Colonia Lomas 4ª Sección, 78216 San Luis Potosí, SLP, Mexico
| | - Jorge A Flores-Cano
- Facultad de Agronomía y Veterinaria, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, Km. 14.5 Carretera San Luis-Matehuala, Soledad de Graciano Sánchez 78321, SLP, Mexico
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Tschumi M, Scherler P, Fattebert J, Naef-Daenzer B, Grüebler MU. Political borders impact associations between habitat suitability predictions and resource availability. Landsc Ecol 2020; 35:2287-2300. [PMID: 33071456 PMCID: PMC7524687 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-020-01103-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2019] [Accepted: 08/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT By linking species of conservation concern to their abiotic and biotic requirements, habitat suitability models (HSM) can assist targeted conservation measures. Yet, conservation measures may fail if HSM are unable to predict crucial resources. HSM are typically developed using remotely sensed land-cover classification data but not information on resources per se. OBJECTIVES While a certain land-cover class may correlate with crucial resources in the area of calibration, political boundaries can abruptly alter these associations. We investigate this potential discrepancy in a well-known study system highly relevant for farmland bird conservation. METHODS We compared land cover, land-use intensity and resource availability between plots of highest habitat suitability for little owls (Athene noctua) among two neighbouring, but politically separated areas (i.e. south-western Germany vs. northern Switzerland). RESULTS Land cover and land-use richness did not differ between German and Swiss plots. Yet there were marked differences in terms of land-use intensity and the availability of resources. Land-use intensity was significantly higher and resource availability lower in Swiss compared to German plots. CONCLUSIONS While accounting well for remotely sensed data such as land cover, HSM may fail to predict land-use intensity and resources across borders. The relationship between geodata used as proxies and ecologically relevant resources may differ according to history, policies and socio-cultural context, constraining the viability of HSM across political borders. This study emphasises the need for fine-scale resource assessments complementing landscape-scale suitability models. Conservation measures need to consider the availability of crucial resources and their socio-economic moderators to be effective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthias Tschumi
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Patrick Scherler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Julien Fattebert
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4000 South Africa
| | - Beat Naef-Daenzer
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
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Ibáñez-Justicia A, Alcaraz-Hernández JD, van Lammeren R, Koenraadt CJM, Bergsma A, Delucchi L, Rizzoli A, Takken W. Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands. Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:217. [PMID: 32336286 PMCID: PMC7184689 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04077-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2020] [Accepted: 04/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations. Methods We used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and secondly, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using land surface temperature data (LST model). Results Suitability assessment obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the current distribution of the species and these results also depict moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model showed that: (i) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs; (ii) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival; and (iii) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life-cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model revealed that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the locations where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is considered unlikely. Conclusions Results using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.![]()
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Affiliation(s)
- Adolfo Ibáñez-Justicia
- Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | | | - Ron van Lammeren
- Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Aldo Bergsma
- Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Luca Delucchi
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Willem Takken
- Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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