Trends in mortality from chronic liver disease

Mortality related to HCV and other chronic liver diseases in Veneto (Italy), 2008-2021: Changes in trends and age-period-cohort effects

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents on mortality related to chronic liver diseases (CLD).

METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates were computed based on CLD as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and as any mention in death certificates (multiple causes of death-MCOD). Time trends in age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using generalized estimation equation models. Additionally, we conducted age, period, and birth cohort (APC) analyses on CLD-related mortality associated with alcohol and hepatitis C virus (HCV).

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2021, among residents in the Veneto region (Northeastern Italy) aged ≥35 years, there were 20 409 deaths based on the UCOD and 30 069 deaths based on MCOD from all CLD. We observed a 4% annual decline in age-standardized MCOD-based mortality throughout 2008-2021, with minor peaks corresponding to COVID-19 epidemic waves. Starting in 2016, the decline in HCV-related mortality accelerated further (p < .001). A peak in HCV-related mortality in the 1963-1967 birth cohort was observed, which levelled off by the end of the study period. Mortality related to alcoholic liver disease declined at a slower pace, becoming the most common aetiology mentioned in death certificates.

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrates a significant decrease in HCV-related mortality at the population level in Italy with the introduction of DAAs. Continuous monitoring of MCOD data is warranted to determine if this favourable trend will continue. Further studies utilizing additional health records are needed to clarify the role of other CLD etiologies.

Mortality from chronic liver disease: Recent trends and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Prepandemic time trends in mortality from chronic liver disease (CLD) differed according to specific cause of death (decreasing for liver cirrhosis, stable or increasing for liver cancer), etiology (increasing for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, generally decreasing for other etiologies), and world region (decreasing in areas with the highest burden of hepatitis B virus, increasing in Eastern Europe and other countries). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected mortality of patients with CLD both directly, with a higher risk for severe illness and death depending on age, stage and etiology of the disease, and indirectly, through social isolation and loss of support, harmful drinking, and difficulties in access to care. Nevertheless, only sparse data are available on variations in CLD as a cause of death during the pandemic. In the USA, in 2020-2021 a growth in mortality was registered for all liver diseases, more marked for alcoholic liver disease, especially among young people aged 25-44 years and in selected ethnic groups. COVID-19 related deaths accounted only for a minor part of the excess. Further data from mortality registers of other countries are warranted, preferably adopting the so-called multiple cause-of-death approach, and extended to deaths attributed to viral hepatitis and liver cancer.

Risk of parenterally transmitted hepatitis following exposure to invasive procedures in Italy: SEIEVA surveillance 2000-2021

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Surgical interventions and invasive diagnostic/therapeutic procedures are known routes of transmission of viral hepatitis. Using data from the Italian surveillance system for acute viral hepatitis (SEIEVA), the aim of this study was to investigate the association between specific types of invasive procedures and the risk of acute HBV and HCV infections.

METHODS

Data from SEIEVA (period 2000-2021) were used. The association between acute HBV and HCV infection and potential risk factors, i.e. surgical interventions and diagnostic/therapeutic procedures (given according to the ICD-9-CM classification), was investigated in comparison to age-matched hepatitis A cases, used as controls, by conditional multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 8,176 cases with acute HBV, 2,179 with acute HCV, and the respective age-matched controls with acute HAV infection were selected for the main analysis. Most of the procedures evaluated were associated with the risk of acquiring HBV or HCV. The strongest associations for HBV infection were: gynaecological surgery (odds ratio [OR] 5.19; 95% CI 1.12-24.05), otorhinolaryngological surgery (OR 3.78; 95% CI 1.76-8.09), and cardiac/thoracic surgery (OR 3.52; 95% CI 1.34-9.23); while for HCV infection, they were: neurosurgery (OR 11.88; 95% CI 2.40-58.85), otorhinolaryngological surgery (OR 11.54; 95% CI 2.55-52.24), and vascular surgery (OR 9.52; 95% CI 3.25-27.87). Hepatitis C was also strongly associated with ophthalmological surgery (OR 8.32; 95% CI 2.24-30.92). Biopsy and/or endoscopic procedures were significantly associated with both HCV (OR 3.84; 95% CI 2.47-5.95) and, to a lesser extent, HBV infection (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.16-1.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the progress made in recent years, invasive procedures still represent a significant risk factor for acquiring parenterally transmitted hepatitis viruses, thus explaining the still numerous and unexpected cases diagnosed among the elderly population in Italy. Our results underline the importance of observing universal precautions to control the iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis viruses.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Cases of parenterally transmitted acute viral hepatitis in the elderly population, that are difficult to explain based on the most widely recognised risk factors, continue to be diagnosed in Italy. Based on the Italian SEIEVA surveillance of acute viral hepatitis data, this study highlights an increased risk of acquiring hepatitis B and C following exposure to invasive procedures, which might explain the observed cases in elderly individuals. Furthermore, this finding emphasises the need to observe universal precautions strictly, in healthcare settings, including in the case of minor surgical procedures.

Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death: A Review of Methods and Practices

BACKGROUND

Research and reporting of mortality indicators typically focus on a single underlying cause of death selected from multiple causes recorded on a death certificate. The need to incorporate the multiple causes in mortality statistics-reflecting increasing multimorbidity and complex causation patterns-is recognized internationally. This review aims to identify and appraise relevant analytical methods and practices related to multiple causes.

METHODS

We searched Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from their incept ion to December 2020 without language restrictions, supplemented by consultation with international experts. Eligible articles analyzed multiple causes of death from death certificates. The process identified 4,080 items of which we reviewed 434 full-text articles.

RESULTS

Most articles we reviewed (76%, n = 332) were published since 2001. The majority of articles examined mortality by "any- mention" of the cause of death (87%, n = 377) and assessed pairwise combinations of causes (57%, n = 245). Since 2001, applications of methods emerged to group deaths based on common cause patterns using, for example, cluster analysis (2%, n = 9), and application of multiple-cause weights to re-evaluate mortality burden (1%, n = 5). We describe multiple-cause methods applied to specific research objectives for approaches emerging recently.

CONCLUSION

This review confirms rapidly increasing international interest in the analysis of multiple causes of death and provides the most comprehensive overview, to our knowledge, of methods and practices to date. Available multiple-cause methods are diverse but suit a range of research objectives. With greater availability of data and technology, these could be further developed and applied across a range of settings.

Association between different patterns of shift work and liver function tests: A cross-sectional analysis of Shahedieh PERSIAN cohort data, Iran, 2020

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest that shift work may cause liver dysfunction.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the relationship between different patterns of shift work and elevated level of liver enzymes.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 1910 workers aged 35 to 70 years were selected with simple random sampling from 9978 participants of the recruitment phase of Shahedieh PERSIAN cohort study. Level of serum liver enzymes (ALT, AST, ALP, and GGT) and ALT/AST ratio was compared between shift workers and non-shift workers, and among employees working in different patterns of shift work. Data were analyzed by SPSS (version 21.0) using Student's T test, Mann-Whitney U test, chi-square test, Kruskal Wallis test, and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 1347 males (71%) and 563 females (29%) with a mean age of 40.4±7.4 years, 469 were shift workers. Fixed evening type shift was the most common (30.3%) and fixed night-shift was the least common (0.9%) type of shift work. The mean blood levels of liver enzymes was not significantly different between shift workers and non-shift workers. In comparison between different patterns of shift work, the mean serum level of GGT was significantly higher in individuals with slow rotating shifts than those with fixed evening shifts, rapid rotating, split and fixed 24 hour shifts (p≤0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors only elevated AST was significantly higher in shift workers.

CONCLUSION

There was only a significant association between shift work and elevated AST, and no relationship was found with ALT, ALP, GGT, and ALT/AST ratio.

Machine learning-based system for prediction of ascites grades in patients with liver cirrhosis using laboratory and clinical data: design and implementation study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to implement a non-invasive model to predict ascites grades among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In the present study, we used modern machine learning (ML) methods to develop a scoring system solely based on routine laboratory and clinical data to help physicians accurately diagnose and predict different degrees of ascites. We used ANACONDA3-5.2.0 64 bit, free and open-source platform distribution of Python programming language with numerous modules, packages, and rich libraries that provide various methods for classification problems. Through the 10-fold cross-validation, we employed three common learning models on our dataset, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and neural network classification algorithms.

RESULTS

According to the data received from the research institute, three types of data analysis have been performed. The algorithms used to predict ascites were KNN, cross-validation (CV), and multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNN), which achieved an average accuracy of 94, 91, and 90%, respectively. Also, in the average accuracy of the algorithms, KNN had the highest accuracy of 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

We applied well-known ML approaches to predict ascites. The findings showed a strong performance compared to the classical statistical approaches. This ML-based approach can help to avoid unnecessary risks and costs for patients with acute stages of the disease.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Patients With Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis: A National COVID Cohort Collaborative Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis, existing studies on the outcomes with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection have limited generalizability. We used the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), a harmonized electronic health record dataset of 6.4 million, to describe SARS-CoV-2 outcomes in patients with CLD and cirrhosis.

METHODS

We identified all patients with CLD with or without cirrhosis who had SARS-CoV-2 testing in the N3C Data Enclave as of July 1, 2021. We used survival analyses to associate SARS-CoV-2 infection, presence of cirrhosis, and clinical factors with the primary outcome of 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

We isolated 220,727 patients with CLD and SARS-CoV-2 test status: 128,864 (58%) were noncirrhosis/negative, 29,446 (13%) were noncirrhosis/positive, 53,476 (24%) were cirrhosis/negative, and 8941 (4%) were cirrhosis/positive patients. Thirty-day all-cause mortality rates were 3.9% in cirrhosis/negative and 8.9% in cirrhosis/positive patients. Compared to cirrhosis/negative patients, cirrhosis/positive patients had 2.38 times adjusted hazard of death at 30 days. Compared to noncirrhosis/positive patients, cirrhosis/positive patients had 3.31 times adjusted hazard of death at 30 days. In stratified analyses among patients with cirrhosis with increased age, obesity, and comorbid conditions (ie, diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease), SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with increased adjusted hazard of death.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study of approximately 221,000 nationally representative, diverse, and sex-balanced patients with CLD; we found SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with cirrhosis was associated with 2.38 times mortality hazard, and the presence of cirrhosis among patients with CLD infected with SARS-CoV-2 was associated with 3.31 times mortality hazard. These results provide an additional impetus for increasing vaccination uptake and further research regarding immune responses to vaccines in patients with severe liver disease.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Patients with Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis: a N3C Study

Background and Aims

In patients with chronic liver diseases (CLD) with or without cirrhosis, existing data on the risk of adverse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection have been mixed or have limited generalizability. We used the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Data Enclave, a harmonized electronic health record (EHR) dataset of 5.9 million nationally-representative, diverse, and gender-balanced patients, to describe outcomes in patients with CLD and cirrhosis with SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

We identified all chronic liver diseases patients with and without cirrhosis who had SARS-CoV-2 testing documented in the N3C Data Enclave as of data release date 5/15/2021. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Survival analysis methods were used to estimate cumulative incidences of death, hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation, and to calculate the associations of SARS-CoV-2 infection, presence of cirrhosis, and demographic and clinical factors to 30-day mortality.

Results

We isolated 217,143 patients with CLD: 129,097 (59%) without cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 negative, 25,844 (12%) without cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 positive, 54,065 (25%) with cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 negative, and 8,137 (4%) with cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 positive. Among CLD patients without cirrhosis, 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 0.4% in SARS-CoV-2 negative patients and 1.8% in positive patients. Among CLD patients with cirrhosis, 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 4.0% in SARS-CoV-2 negative patients and 9.7% in positive patients.Compared to those who tested SARS-CoV-2 negative, SARS-CoV-2 positivity was associated with more than two-fold (aHR 2.43, 95% CI 2.23-2.64) hazard of death at 30 days among patients with cirrhosis. Compared to patients without cirrhosis, the presence of cirrhosis was associated with a three-fold (aHR 3.39, 95% CI 2.96-3.89) hazard of death at 30 days among patients who tested SARS-CoV-2 positive. Age (aHR 1.03 per year, 95% CI 1.03-1.04) was associated with death at 30 days among patients with cirrhosis who were SARS-CoV-2 positive.

Conclusions

In this study of nearly 220,000 CLD patients, we found SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with cirrhosis was associated with 2.43-times mortality hazard, and the presence of cirrhosis among CLD patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 were associated with 3.39-times mortality hazard. Compared to previous studies, our use of a nationally-representative, diverse, and gender-balanced dataset enables wide generalizability of these findings.

Changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae: underlying versus multiple causes of death

Background

The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the USA using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data.

Methods

We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality.

Result

Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years.

Conclusion

The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data.

Prevalence of chronic liver disease among young/middle-aged adults in Northern Italy: role of hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infection by age, sex, ethnicity

Background

Sparse population-based data are available on the prevalence and etiology of chronic liver disease (CLD) in Italy. The study aims to assess the role of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in CLD according to age, gender and ethnicity.

Methods

Clinically diagnosed CLD in the general population aged 20–59 years in the Veneto Region (North-Eastern Italy) were identified through the Adjusted Clinical Groups System, by record linkage of the archive of subjects enrolled in the Regional Health System with Hospital Discharge Records, Emergency Room visits, Chronic disease registry for copayment exemptions, and the Home care database. Age-standardized prevalence rates (PR) were computed in Italians and immigrants, based on country of citizenship.

Results

Overall 22,934 subjects affected by CLD in 2016 were retrieved, 21% related to HBV and 43% to HCV infection. The prevalence of HCV-related CLD was higher in males, peaking at 50–54 years (males = 11/1000; females = 4/1000). The PR of HBV-related CLD was almost negligible in the Italian population (1/1000), and higher among immigrants, especially from East Asia (males = 17/1000; females = 11/1000) and Sub-Saharan Africa (males = 13/1000; females = 10/1000).

Conclusion

Specific population sub-groups identified by age, gender, and ethnicity, were demonstrated to be at increased risk, and these trends are in line with global epidemiological patterns of viral hepatitis.

Mortality from liver angiosarcoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and cirrhosis among vinyl chloride workers

BACKGROUND

Occupational exposure to vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been established as a cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver angiosarcoma (ASL). However, some controversy remains due to conflicting results on liver cirrhosis, and to evidence on HCC based on few confirmed cases. The aim of the study is to clarify the association between VCM exposure and mortality from liver diseases.

METHODS

In a cohort of 1658 workers involved in VCM production and polymerization, Poisson regression was adopted to estimate rate ratios (RR) across categories of VCM exposure for mortality due to ASL (n = 9), HCC (n = 31) confirmed by histological/clinical records, and the combination of deaths from liver cirrhosis and from liver cancer with clinical/histological evidence of cirrhosis (n = 63).

RESULTS

Cumulative VCM exposure was associated with study outcomes; RRs in the highest compared to the lowest exposure category were: ASL 91.1 (95%Confidence Interval 16.8-497), HCC 5.52 (2.03-15.0), liver cirrhosis 2.60 (1.19-5.67).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death from liver cirrhosis, as well as from HCC in the largest available series of confirmed cases, increased with VCM exposure.

Night shift work and abnormal liver function: is non-alcohol fatty liver a necessary mediator?

OBJECTIVES

Accumulated evidence implies that night shift work may trigger liver dysfunction. Non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) is suggested to be a necessary mediator in this process. This study aimed to examine the relationship between night shift work and elevated level of alanine transaminase (e-ALT) of workers and investigate the potential mediation effect of NAFL.

METHODS

This study included all male workers from the baseline survey of a cohort of night shift workers. Information on demographics, lifestyle and lifetime working schedule was collected by face-to-face interview. Liver sonography was used to identify NAFL cases. Serum ALT level was detected by an automatic biochemical analyser. e-ALT was defined as ALT >40 U/L. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate ORs, and mediation analysis was employed to examine the mediation effect.

RESULTS

Among 4740 male workers, 39.5% were night shift workers. Night shift workers had an increased risk of e-ALT (OR, 1.19, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.42). With the increase in night shift years, the OR of e-ALT increased from 1.03 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.36) to 1.60 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.39) among workers without NAFL. A similar trend was not found among workers with NAFL. In addition, no significant mediation effect of NAFL in the association between night shift work and e-ALT was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Night shift work is positively associated with abnormal liver function, in particular among workers without NAFL. Shift work involving circadian disruption is likely to exert a direct effect on liver dysfunction rather than rely on the mediation effect of NAFL.

Education level and chronic liver disease by aetiology: A proportional mortality study

BACKGROUND

Data are lacking on mortality from chronic liver diseases of different aetiology by education level.

AIMS

To investigate the association between education level and mortality from alcoholic, viral, and non-viral/non-alcoholic chronic liver disease.

METHODS

Proportional mortality was investigated in 2011-2013 in the Veneto Region (Italy). Odds ratios were estimated by conditional logistic regression with deaths from liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and viral hepatitis as cases, and all other deaths as controls. Disease aetiology was determined from all conditions mentioned in the death certificate.

RESULTS

Overall chronic liver disease proportional mortality was higher in males (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18-1.60) and females (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.29-2.30) with primary education than in subjects with higher educational level. The risk for alcohol-related and non-viral/non-alcohol-related disease significantly increased with lower education in both genders.

CONCLUSIONS

Proportional mortality analysis of multiple causes of death records showed an association between education and chronic liver diseases with alcoholic and non-viral/non-alcoholic aetiology.

The Particular Story of Italians' Relation with Alcohol: Trends in Individuals' Consumption by Age and Beverage Type

AIMS

In Italy, sales data show a dramatic fall in alcohol consumption between 1970 and 2010. The aim of our study is to provide updated information on trends, prevalence and determinants of alcohol drinking in Italy, using individual-level data.

METHODS

Seven nationally representative cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Italy between 2006 and 2014, on a total sample of 21,416 participants aged ≥15 years, with available information on weekly consumption of wine, beer and spirits.

RESULTS

Per capita alcohol consumption decreased by 23% between 2006 and 2014 (from 5.6 to 4.4 drinks/week), due to the fall in wine drinking. Overall, the prevalence of alcohol drinkers was 61.6%. Individuals predominantly drinking wine were 35.3%, beer 11.1% and spirits 6.4%. A direct trend of drinking with age was observed for total alcohol (multivariate odds ratio, OR = 1.75 for ≥65 vs. 15-24 years) and predominant wine drinking (OR = 8.05), while an inverse trend was observed for beer (OR = 0.17) and spirit drinkers (OR = 0.33). Women (OR = 0.24), obese individuals (OR = 0.67) and those from southern Italy (OR = 0.63) were less frequently, while those with high education (OR = 1.97), ex- (OR = 1.46) and current smokers (OR = 2.17) were more frequently alcohol drinkers.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of individual-level data we confirm and further update to 2014 the decreasing trend in alcohol consumption in Italy over the last few decades, mainly due to the fall in wine consumption. This may be due to anti-alcohol policies, programs and campaigns adopted and developed over the last decade. It also reflects socio-cultural changes in drinking, particularly in younger generations.