Validation of environmental transfer models and assessment of the effectiveness of countermeasures using data on (131)I releases from Chernobyl

Evaluation of 131I transfer in the environment based on the available measurements made in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

This study evaluates the 131I transfer from ground deposition to the human thyroid gland after the Chernobyl accident using measurements of 131I concentrations in 1,252 soil, 124 grass, and 136 cow's milk samples as well as 131I thyroid activity measured in 3,100 individuals included in the Belarusian-American cohort. The following parameters of an 131I environmental transfer model used to calculate thyroid doses were evaluated in this study: (i) the interception factor of 131I by pasture grass, which was described by a purely empirical equation, (ii) the removal rate of 131I from pasture grass due to weathering and growth dilution, estimated to be 0.0676 d-1 (half-life of 10.3 d), (iii) the removal rate of 131I from cow's milk, estimated to be 0.0686 d-1 (half-life of 10.1 d), and (iv) the transfer coefficient of 131I from feed to cow's milk, arithmetic mean ± standard deviation of (6.7 ± 8.7) × 10-3 d L-1 (median = 4.0 × 10-3 d L-1). The individual model-based and measurement-based 131I thyroid activities for the Belarusian-American cohort members were calculated using different starting points of 131I transfer in the chain 'ground deposition' → 'vegetation' → 'cow's milk' → 'human thyroid', i.e., the measured 131I concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk. De novo thyroid doses from 131I for the 3,100 cohort members were calculated in this study using measured 131I activity concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk and were compared with those estimated previously for the same individuals using model-based 131I activity concentrations. It was shown that the use of measured instead of model-based 131I concentrations, in general, did not improve the measurement-based thyroid dose estimates. This is likely to be because there was already a good generic data base for the parameters used in this assessment. This finding indicates that, although the measurements of environmental samples are essential to estimate the parameter values of the 131I transfer model, the individual measurements of 131I thyroid activity are the most valuable information for estimating individual thyroid doses.

Radioecological modeling of the 131I activity dynamics in different types of grass vegetation in the Chernobyl accident year

The dynamics of 137Cs and 131I radioactivity in the crude biomass of the grass fodder and food vegetation in Mazovia, Poland, in 1986, the year of the Chernobyl accident, has been estimated. Density of 137Cs and 131I in the soil and vegetation have been measured as a function of rainfall and biomass density as of the time most of the fallout took place. A method is described to convert the instrumental data for the radionuclide activity dynamics in vegetation of one type to vegetation of other types. The results of such data conversion from lawn grass to other types of food and fodder grass vegetation are presented. A method is described for adjusting the dynamics of the radionuclide transport through the food chain components (pasture grass, green meat – milk – human body) by normalizing successively the estimated data in each next component for the average value of the instrumental data ratio to the estimated data in the preceding component. The proposed methods are intended to generate a mutually consistent base of estimated and reconstructed instrumental data: 137Cs and 131I activity in the atmosphere – rainfall – 137Cs fallout density on terrain – specific activity of 131I in vegetation. Such radioecological database will provide for a longer reliability of the estimated 131I specific activity dynamics in milk and in human body and, in the long run, when estimating the thyroid internal exposure doses.

Can models based on phylogeny be used to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in crops?

The modelling of transfer of radionuclides from soils to plants generally relies upon empirical soil-plant concentration ratios. Concentration ratios are often highly uncertain and are not available for many plant-radionuclide combinations. A number of papers published over the last 20 years have suggested that phylogenetic models could be used to make predictions of the radionuclide transfer to plants. Such a modelling approach would have the advantage that site factors (typically related to soils) are taken into account. For the first time we have compared predictions of Cs and Sr transfer to a range of crops grown on different soils. Predictions for both elements were generally acceptable (within an order of magnitude of observed data) but Sr concentrations were over predicted in fruits and tubers. This over prediction of Sr concentrations is likely to be because the phylogenetic models were fitted to data for green shoots. We conclude that phylogenetic models offer a number of advantages, but that they must be validated and, in future, parametrisation datasets need to include data on concentrations in edible plant parts and not just green shoots.

Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project "Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety" (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of (131)I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of (137)Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and (131)I/(137)Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of (131)I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of (131)I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.