Method in macroecology

Landscape Heterogeneity and Environmental Dynamics Improve Predictions of Establishment Success of Colonising Small Founding Populations

In long-distance dispersal events, colonising species typically begin with a small number of founding individuals. A growing body of research suggests that establishment success of small founding populations can be determined by the context of the colonisation event and the new environment. Here, we illuminate the importance of these sources of context dependence. Using a spatially explicit, temporally dynamic, mechanistic, individual-based simulator of a model amphibian species, the cane toad (Rhinella marina), we simulated colonisation scenarios to investigate how (1) the number of founding individuals, (2) the number of dispersal events, (3) landscape's spatial composition and configuration of habitats ('spatially heterogeneous landscapes') and (4) the timing of arrival with regards to dynamic environmental conditions ('dynamic environmental conditions') influence the establishment success of small founding populations. We analysed the dynamic effects of these predictors on establishment success using running-window logistic regression models. We showed establishment success increases with the number of founding individuals, whereas the number of dispersal events had a weak effect. At ≥ 20 founding individuals, propagule size swamps the effects of other factors, to whereby establishment success is near-certain (≥ 90%). But below this level, confidence in establishment success dramatically decreases as number of founding individuals decreases. At low numbers of founding individuals, the prominent predictors are landscape spatial heterogeneity and dynamic environmental conditions. For instance, compared to the annual mean, founding populations with ≤ 5 individuals have up to 18% higher establishment success when they arrive in 'packed' landscapes with relatively limited and clustered essential habitats and right before the breeding season. Accounting for landscape spatial heterogeneity and dynamic environmental conditions is integral in understanding and predicting population establishment and species colonisation. This additional complexity is necessary for advancing biogeographical theory and its application, such as in guiding species reintroduction efforts and invasive alien species management.

Ecotoxicology and macroecology--time for integration

Despite considerable progress in ecotoxicology, it has become clear that this discipline cannot answer its central questions, such as, "What are the effects of toxicants on biodiversity?" and "How the ecosystem functions and services are affected by the toxicants?". We argue that if such questions are to be answered, a paradigm shift is needed. The current bottom-up approach of ecotoxicology that implies the use of small-scale experiments to predict effects on the entire ecosystems and landscapes should be merged with a top-down macroecological approach that is directly focused on ecological effects at large spatial scales and consider ecological systems as integral entities. Analysis of the existing methods in ecotoxicology, ecology, and environmental chemistry shows that such integration is currently possible. Therefore, we conclude that to tackle the current pressing challenges, ecotoxicology has to progress using both the bottom-up and top-down approaches, similar to digging a tunnel from both ends at once.

The comparative ecology and biogeography of parasites

Comparative ecology uses interspecific relationships among traits, while accounting for the phylogenetic non-independence of species, to uncover general evolutionary processes. Applied to biogeographic questions, it can be a powerful tool to explain the spatial distribution of organisms. Here, we review how comparative methods can elucidate biogeographic patterns and processes, using analyses of distributional data on parasites (fleas and helminths) as case studies. Methods exist to detect phylogenetic signals, i.e. the degree of phylogenetic dependence of a given character, and either to control for these signals in statistical analyses of interspecific data, or to measure their contribution to variance. Parasite-host interactions present a special case, as a given trait may be a parasite trait, a host trait or a property of the coevolved association rather than of one participant only. For some analyses, it is therefore necessary to correct simultaneously for both parasite phylogeny and host phylogeny, or to evaluate which has the greatest influence on trait expression. Using comparative approaches, we show that two fundamental properties of parasites, their niche breadth, i.e. host specificity, and the nature of their life cycle, can explain interspecific and latitudinal variation in the sizes of their geographical ranges, or rates of distance decay in the similarity of parasite communities. These findings illustrate the ways in which phylogenetically based comparative methods can contribute to biogeographic research.

How big should a mammal be? A macroecological look at mammalian body size over space and time

Macroecology was developed as a big picture statistical approach to the study of ecology and evolution. By focusing on broadly occurring patterns and processes operating at large spatial and temporal scales rather than on localized and/or fine-scaled details, macroecology aims to uncover general mechanisms operating at organism, population, and ecosystem levels of organization. Macroecological studies typically involve the statistical analysis of fundamental species-level traits, such as body size, area of geographical range, and average density and/or abundance. Here, we briefly review the history of macroecology and use the body size of mammals as a case study to highlight current developments in the field, including the increasing linkage with biogeography and other disciplines. Characterizing the factors underlying the spatial and temporal patterns of body size variation in mammals is a daunting task and moreover, one not readily amenable to traditional statistical analyses. Our results clearly illustrate remarkable regularities in the distribution and variation of mammalian body size across both geographical space and evolutionary time that are related to ecology and trophic dynamics and that would not be apparent without a broader perspective.

Species richness and evenness in Australian birds

Species richness and evenness are the two major components of biodiversity, but the way in which they are interrelated is a subject of contention. We found a negative relationship between the two variables for bird communities at 92 woodland sites across Australia and sought an explanation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) was by far the best predictor of species richness. When AET was controlled for, the relationship between richness and evenness became nonsignificant. Richness is greater at sites with higher AET because such sites support a greater number of individuals. However, such sites have a greater number of rare species, resulting in lower evenness. A complicating factor is that evenness is best predicted by degree of vegetation cover, with sparsely vegetated sites having significantly lower evenness. We conclude that there are two competing ecological processes, related to energy and water availability, that determine richness and evenness. The first drives total abundance (leading to high richness, low evenness), while the second drives productivity and niche availability (leading to high richness, high evenness). The relative strength of these two processes and the observed relationship between richness and evenness are likely to depend on the scale of the analysis and the species and range of habitats studied.

Latitudinal gradients in abundance, and the causes of rarity in the tropics: a test using Australian honeyeaters (Aves: Meliphagidae)

Several studies have uncovered interspecific latitudinal gradients in abundance (population density) such that tropical species tend to be, on average, less abundant than species at higher latitudes. The causes of this relationship remain poorly studied, in contrast to the relative wealth of literature examining the relationship to latitude of other variables such as range size and body mass. We used a cross-species phylogenetic comparative approach and a spatial approach to examine three potential determining factors (distribution, reproductive output and climate) that might explain why abundance correlates with latitude, using data from 54 species of honeyeaters (Meliphagidae) in woodland environments in eastern Australia. There is a strong positive correlation between mean abundance and latitude in these birds. Reproductive output (clutch size) was positively linked to both abundance and latitude, but partial correlation analysis revealed that clutch size is not related to abundance once the effects of latitude are removed. A subsequent multiple regression model that also considered range size, clutch size and body mass showed that latitude is the only strong predictor of abundance in honeyeaters. In the separate spatial analysis, the climatic variables that we considered (temperature, rainfall and seasonality) were all strongly linked to latitude, but none served as a better predictor of abundance than latitude per se, either individually or collectively. The most intriguing result of our analyses was that the cross-species latitudinal pattern in abundance was not evident within species. This suggests an intrinsic cause of the pattern of 'rarity in the tropics' in Australian honeyeaters. We suggest that evolutionary age may provide a key to understanding patterns of abundance in these birds.