Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models

Best of Both Worlds: Bridging One Model for All and Group-Specific Model Approaches using Ensemble-based Subpopulation Modeling

Subpopulation models have become of increasing interest in prediction of clinical outcomes because they promise to perform better for underrepresented patient subgroups. However, the personalization benefits gained from these models tradeoff their statistical power, and can be impractical when the subpopulation's sample size is small. We hypothesize that a hierarchical model in which population information is integrated into subpopulation models would preserve the personalization benefits and offset the loss of power. In this work, we integrate ideas from ensemble modeling, personalization, and hierarchical modeling and build ensemble-based subpopulation models in which specialization relies on whole group samples. This approach significantly improves the precision of the positive class, especially for the underrepresented subgroups, with minimal cost to the recall. It consistently outperforms one model for all and one model for each subgroup approaches, especially in the presence of a high class-imbalance, for subgroups with at least 380 training samples.

American Burn Association (ABA) Burn Care Quality Platform (BCQP) and Large Data Set Analysis Considerations: A Practical Guide to Investigating Clinical Questions in Burns via Large Data Sets

The Burn Care Quality Platform (BCQP) consolidates data previously collected from the National Burn Repository and the Burn Quality Improvement Program into a single registry. Its data elements and their associated definitions are tailored to create consistency across other national trauma registries, namely the National Trauma Data Bank implemented by the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program (ACS TQIP). The BCQP now includes 103 participating burn centers and has captured data from 375,000 total patients as of 2021. With 12,000 patients entered under the current data dictionary, the BCQP represents the largest registry of its kind. On behalf of the American Burn Association Research Committee, the aim of this whitepaper is to provide a succinct overview of the BCQP, showcasing its unique features, strengths, limitations, and relevant statistical considerations. This whitepaper will highlight the resources available to the burn research community and offer insight on proper study design when preparing to conduct a large data set investigation for burn care. All recommendations herein were formulated through the consensus of a multidisciplinary committee and based on the available scientific evidence.

A comparative study of the predictive value of four models for death in patients with severe burns

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic value of the Ryan score, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) score,revised Baux (rBaux) score, and a new model (a Logit(P)-based scoring method created in 2020) for predicting mortality risk in patients with extremely severe burns and to conduct a comparative analysis.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 599 burn patients who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the burn unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2017 to 2022. Relevant information was collected, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were plotted for each of the four models in assessing mortality in these burn patients using both age-stratified and unstratified forms. The ROC curve section was further compared with the area under the curve (AUC), optimal cutoff value, as well as its sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, the quality of the AUC was assessed using the Delong test.

RESULT

Among the patients who met the inclusion criteria, 532 were in the survival group and 67 in the death group. Irrespective of age stratification, the novel model exhibited superior performance with an AUC of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.838-0.894) among all four models predicting mortality risk in included patients, and also demonstrated better AUC quality than other models; the calibration curves showed that the accuracy of all four models was good; the DCA curves showed that the clinical utility of the novel model and rBuax score were better. In the comparison of four scoring models across different age groups, the new model demonstrated the largest AUC in both 0-19 years (0.954, 95% CI 0.914-0.979) and 20-59 years groups (0.838, 95% CI 0.793-0.877), while rBuax score exhibited the highest AUC in ≥ 60 years group (0.708, 95% CI of 0.602-0.800). The calibration curves showed that the four models exhibited greater accuracy within the age range of 20-59 years, while the DCA curves indicated that both the novel model and rBuax score scale displayed better prediction in both the 20-59 and ≥ 60 years groups.

CONCLUSIONS

All four models demonstrate accurate and effective prognostication for patients with severe burns. Both the novel model and rBaux score exhibit enhanced prediction utility. In terms of the model itself alone, the new model is not simpler than, for example, the rBaux score, and whether it can be applied clinicallyinvolves further study.

European Burns Association guidelines for the management of burn mass casualty incidents within a European response plan

BACKGROUND

A European response plan to burn mass casualty incidents has been jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Burn Association. Upon request for assistance by an affected country, the plan outlines a mechanism for coordinated international assistance, aiming to alleviate the burden of care in the affected country and to offer adequate specialized care to all patients who can benefit from it. To that aim, Burn Assessment Teams are deployed to assess and triage patients. Their transportation priority recommendations are used to distribute outnumbering burn casualties to foreign burn centers. Following an appropriate medical evacuation, these casualties receive specialized care in those facilities.

METHODS

The European Burns Association's disaster committee developed medical-organizational guidelines to support this European plan. The experts identified fields of interest, defined questions to be addressed, performed relevant literature searches, and added their expertise in burn disaster preparedness and response. Due to the lack of high-level evidence in the available literature, recommendations and specially designed implementation tools were provided from expert opinion. The European Burns Association officially endorsed the draft recommendations in 2019, and the final full text was approved by the EBA executive committee in 2022.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The resulting 46 recommendations address four fields. Field 1 underlines the need for national preparedness plans and the necessary core items within such plans, including coordination and integration with an international response. Field 2 describes Burn Assessment Teams' roles, composition, training requirements, and reporting goals. Field 3 addresses the goals of specialized in-hospital triage, appropriate severity criteria, and their effects on priorities and triage. Finally, field 4 covers medical evacuations, including their timing and organization, the composition of evacuation teams and their assets, preparation, and the principles of en route care.

A Comprehensive, Retrospective Analysis of Variables for Potential Mortality Impact in Patients With Thermal or Inhalation Injury

Age, percentage TBSA burned, and the presence of inhalation injury have been used historically in the prediction of mortality in thermally injured patients despite other factors being also associated with mortality. Recent literature has identified novel factors associated with increased length of stay (LOS) and may provide a better prediction model for mortality in burn patients. The study objective was to perform a subset analysis of a multitude of known and novel variables for potential association with mortality. Demographics and injury characteristics along with during stay variables were collected and analyzed. This study is a re-analysis of a retrospective study examining variables associated with increased LOS. Of the 629 patients screened, 396 were included in the analysis. After univariable analysis, 35 variables had significant associations with mortality, including age, house fire, acute kidney injury, heart failure, inhalation injury, and history of diabetes. After multivariable analysis, the best performing model included heart failure, acute kidney injury, admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, and revised Baux score. Quantile analysis of age revealed greater than 60 years was most predictive of mortality. The best multivariable model for patients greater than 60 years old included heart failure, vasopressor use, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and TBSA burned. Considering only variables present on admission, the best multivariable model for patients greater than 60 years old included heart failure, % TBSA burned, and inhalation injury. The addition of variables into current prediction models and databases may be warranted.

Risk Models to Predict Mortality in Burn Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The predictive capability of various risk assessment models (RAMs) in evaluating the risk of mortality in burn patients is not well established. It is also unclear which RAM provides the highest discriminative ability and presents the highest clinical utility. We pooled all available studies to establish this validity and compare the predictive capability of the various RAMs.

Methods

We reviewed PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase from their inception up until December 2021 for studies evaluating risk of mortality in burn patients as stratified by RAMs. Data were pooled using random-effect models and presented as area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

Results

Thirty-four studies, comprising of a total of 98,610 patients, were included in our analysis. Most studies were found to have a low risk of bias and a good measure of applicability. Nine RAMs were evaluated. We discovered that the classic Baux; the revised Baux; and the Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex (FLAMES) scores presented with the highest discriminative power with there being no significant difference between the results presented by them [AUROCs (95% CI), 0.92 (0.90-0.95), 0.92 (0.90-0.93), 0.94 (0.91-0.97), respectively, with P < 0.00001 for all].

Conclusions

Many RAMs exist with no consensus on the optimal model to utilize and assess risk of mortality for burn patients. This study is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the current RAMs' discriminative ability to predict mortality in patients with burn injuries. This meta-analysis demonstrated that RAMs designed for assessing mortality in individuals with burns have acceptable to great discriminative capacity, with the classic Baux, revised Baux, and FLAMES demonstrating superior discriminative performance in predicting death. FLAMES exhibited the highest discriminative ability among the RAMs studied.

Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients

Multiple outcome scoring models have been used in predicting mortality in burn patients. In this study, we compared the accuracy of five established models in predicting outcomes in burn patients admitted to the intensive care unit and assessed risk factors associated with mortality. Intensive care burn patients admitted between March 2007 and December 2020 with total body surface area (TBSA) affected ≥ 10% were analyzed. Multivariate analysis was conducted to examine variables associated with mortality. The ABSI, Ryan, BOBI, revised Baux and BUMP scores were analyzed by receiver operating characteristics. A total of 617 patients were included. Morality was 14.4%, with non-survivors being significantly older, male, and having experienced domestic burns. Multivariate analysis identified age, TBSA, full-thickness burns and renal insufficiency as independent mortality predictors. The BUMP score presented the highest mortality prognostication rate, followed by ABSI, revised Baux, BOBI and Ryan scores. BUMP, ABSI and revised Baux scores displayed AUC values exceeding 90%, indicating excellent prognostic capabilities. The BUMP score showed the highest accuracy of predicting mortality in intensive care burn patients and outperformed the most commonly used ABSI score in our cohort. The older models displayed adequate predictive performance and accuracy compared with the newest model.

Burn Registries State of Affairs: A Scoping review

Registry science allows for the interpretation of disease-specific patient data from secondary databases. It can be utilized to understand disease and injury, answer research questions, and engender benchmarking of quality-of-care indicators. Numerous burn registries exist globally, however, their contributions to burn care have not been summarized. The objective of this study is to characterize the available literature on burn registries. The authors conducted a scoping review, having registered the protocol a priori. A thorough search of the English literature, including grey literature, was carried out. Publications of all study designs were eligible for inclusion provided they utilized, analyzed, and/or critiqued data from a burn registry. Three hundred twenty studies were included, encompassing 16 existing burn registries. The most frequently used registries for peer-reviewed publications were the American Burn Association Burn Registry, Burn Model System National Database, and the Burns Registry of Australia and New Zealand. The main limitations of existing registries are the inclusion of patients admitted to burn centers only, deficient capture of outpatient and long-term outcome data, lack of data standardization across registries, and the paucity of studies on burn prevention and quality improvement methodology. Registries are an invaluable source of information for research, delivery of care planning, and benchmarking of processes and outcomes. Efforts should be made to stimulate other jurisdictions to build burn registries and for existing registries to be improved through data linkage with administrative databases, and by standardizing one international minimum dataset, in order to maximize the potential of registry science in burn care.

Music therapy and music medicine interventions with adult burn patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pain is one of the most common and most difficult symptoms to manage in adult burn patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Insufficient or unsuccessful pain management can negatively affect physiological, psychological, and social health in burn patients, both during and after hospitalization. Music therapy and music medicine interventions have been shown to positively affect pain and mental health in this population. This systematic review and meta-analysis provide an update of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) using music therapy or music medicine interventions in adult burn patients.

METHODS

A variety of databases were searched from their beginning to June 2020, including PsycINFO and PsycArticles (via APAsycNET), PubMed and MEDLINE (via OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library. Data of all articles meeting the inclusion criteria were extracted, organized, and processed according to the PRISMA guidelines. Statistical analysis was performed using Q-test and I2 statistics.

RESULTS

10 RCTs with a total of 1061 participants were included. The results of the meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction of pain (I² = 96.03%, P < 0.001), anxiety (I² = 98.85%, P < 0.002), and improved relaxation (I² = 87.19%, P < 0.001) favoring music interventions compared to control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides preliminary evidence for the effectiveness of music interventions for adult burn patients. However, more high-quality RCTs are needed to safely establish guidelines for music therapists and other health care professionals in using music for health purposes with this population.

Prognostic Factors for In-Hospital Mortality of Geriatric Burns From the US National Inpatient Sample 2016 to 2018

Older adults with an acute burn experience a high frequency of in-hospital mortality. However, traditional burn mortality prediction models are less accurate for older adults likely because they do not account for geriatric specific factors, such as frailty. This study aims to investigate the impact of frailty on in-hospital mortality in older adult burn patients. Patients ≥50 years of age with an acute burn diagnosis in the National Inpatient Sample (2016-2018) were included in the cohort. Three multivariable logistic regression models to predict in-hospital mortality were generated and compared. The models were 1) age and percent total body surface area, 2) age, percent total body surface area and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and 3) age, percent total body surface area, and Hospital Frailty Risk Score. A total of 60,515 weighted discharges were included in the cohort. In-hospital mortality increased with age, as 3.3% of 50- to 64-year-olds, 5.3% of 65- to 74-year-olds, 6.6% of 75- to 84-year-olds, and 9.9% of ≥85-year-olds died during the acute burn admission (P < .001). The multivariable model that included Hospital Frailty Risk Score had a higher area under the receiver operating characteristics curve than the model with age and percent total body surface area (0.84 vs 0.79; P < .001) and the model with Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (0.84 vs 0.83; P = .013). Frailty improved prediction of in-hospital mortality for older adult acute burn patients and burn specialists should consider implementing a frailty instrument to evaluate older adults with an acute burn injury.

Predicting and Estimating Burn Outcomes: An Institutional Analysis of 4622 cases

Advances in burn care have improved patient outcomes, and independently validated indices and predictors of burn outcomes warrant re-evaluation. The purpose of this study is to consolidate predictors of burn outcomes and determine the factors that significantly contribute to length-of-stay (LOS) and mortality. A retrospective review was conducted of all burn patients (n=5778) admitted to a quaternary provincial burn unit from 1973 to 2017. Our inclusion criteria yielded 4622 independent cases. Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were generated, and area-under-receiver-operator-curve (AUROC) analysis was performed. Burn predictors included %TBSA, Baux (classic and revised) index, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), and Ryan score. Primary outcomes were mortality and LOS. Multivariate logistic regression for mortality showed the Baux index to be the best predictor for mortality (OR=1.11, p<0.001). The AUROC for Baux index was 0.95. With regards to LOS, ABSI was the best predictor for LOS (p<0.001). ICU stay, ventilator use, alcoholism, age, significantly associated with increased LOS. Interestingly, hypertension had a protective effect for LOS (p<0.01) and trended towards a protective effect in mortality. Lethal score 50% (LS50) improved over the study period. The regressions show that burn mortality and LOS are best predicted with the Baux index and ABSI, respectively. Hypertension may have a protective effect on burn outcomes and may be attributed to increased perfusion to the periphery. These predictive scores are useful in determining institutional outcomes in burn surgery. Objective benchmarking of improvement in burn care outcomes can be established using LS50 trends.

Risk Factors For Death And Prognosis Value Of Revised Baux Score For Burn Patients With Inhalation Injury

A retrospective study was conducted on 314 burn patients with inhalation injury admitted to the National Burn Hospital during the period 2015-2019. The results showed that adult and male was predominant (81.9% and 77.7%), with burns mostly caused by flame (93.6%) and burn extent of 68.6±24.3% and deep burn area of 44.6±25.2% total body surface area. Rate of required mechanical ventilation patients was 95.22%. Common complications were multiple organ failure (41.9%), pneumonia (29.9%), ARDS (25.5%) and septic shock (23.8%), with a mortality rate of 85.4%. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that burn extent and age were independent risk factors for death of patients with inhalation injury. SMR of rBaux score was 1.01 with AUC of 0.84, Youden index 113, sensitivity 82.09%, specificity 70.21%. The SMR of adult and elderly patients was relatively close to 1 (1 and .97 respectively). In addition, the AUC value for the elderly was highest (.95) followed by adult patients (.84). However, predicting the value of rBaux on children with inhalation injury was quite low (SMR=1.57; AUC = 0.4). There is a need to determine an optimal prognosis score for children with inhalation injury.

Age and Injury Size Influence the Magnitude of Fecal Dysbiosis in Adult Burn Patients

Clinical studies have demonstrated that age 50 years or older is an independent risk factor associated with poor prognosis after burn injury, the second leading cause of traumatic injuries in the aged population. While mechanisms driving age-dependent postburn mortality are perplexing, changes in the intestinal microbiome, may contribute to the heightened, dysregulated systemic response seen in aging burn patients. The fecal microbiome from 22 patients admitted to a verified burn center from July 2018 to February 2019 was stratified based on the age of 50 years and total burn surface area (TBSA) size of ≥10%. Significant differences (P = .014) in overall microbiota community composition (ie, beta diversity) were measured across the four patient groups: young <10% TBSA, young ≥10% TBSA, older <10% TBSA, and older ≥10% TBSA. Differences in beta diversity were driven by %TBSA (P = .013) and trended with age (P = .087). Alpha diversity components, richness, evenness, and Shannon diversity were measured. We observed significant differences in bacterial species evenness (P = .0023) and Shannon diversity (P = .0033) between the groups. There were significant correlations between individual bacterial species and levels of short-chain fatty acids. Specifically, levels of fecal butyrate correlated with the presence of Enterobacteriaceae, an opportunistic gut pathogen, when elevated in burn patients lead to worsen outcomes. Overall, our findings reveal that age-specific changes in the fecal microbiome following burn injuries may contribute to immune system dysregulation in patients with varying TBSA burns and potentially lead to worsened clinical outcomes with heightened morbidity and mortality.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics and outcomes of inpatient burn injuries in older adults: Factors associated with mortality

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of epidemiological research on defining the epidemiological profile of burn injuries in older adults in different regions of Turkey. This study was designed to document the prevalent epidemiological pattern of burn injuries and factors that affect mortality in older adults admitted for treatment to the inpatient unit of Adana City Training and Research Hospital (ACTRH).

METHODS

Demographic data, burn mechanism, presentation, percentage of total body surface area (TBSA) burn, abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) and revised Baux scores, comorbidities, and treatment modalities burn patients aged 60 years and over admitted to our burn center January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, were evaluated retrospectively in this study.

RESULTS

The medical records of 1754 inpatient burns over 4 years were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 104 (5.5%) hospitalized adult burn patients aged 60 years old or over and treated more than 24 h were included in the study. There were 38 males and 66 females with a male-to-female ratio of 1.00: 2.05 in survivors and 1.25: 1.00 in non-survivors. The mean age was 70.5±8.5 (60.0-92.0) for survivors and 72.7±8.4 (62.0-90.0) years for non-survivors. The mean (%) TBSA burned was 11.4±9.9% for survivors and 37.8±30.0% for non-survivors. Most of the burn injuries occurred at indoor locations (81%), caused by hot water scalds, representing more than one-third of all burns, especially in the kitchen and bathroom. Considering the age (p=0.329), the etiology (p=0.984) and place of burns (p=0.071), burned anatomical regions (p=0.817), and the surgical procedure (yes/no) (p=0.798), no statistical difference was observed between survivors and non-survivors.

CONCLUSION

The more extended %TBSA burn, the inhalation injury, and deep burns were found to be significantly the most effective factors in mortality. Revised Baux (R Baux) and ABSI scores had a high value of predicting mortality.

Non-Survival Distributions in Paediatric Burn Patients; A Comparative Study of Two National Databases

A contemporary, age-specific model for the distribution of burn mortality in children has not been developed for over a decade. Using data from TriNetX, a global federated health research network, and the American Burn Association's Nation Burn Repository (NBR), we investigated non-survival distributions for paediatric burns in the United States. Paediatric burn patients ages 0-20 between 2010-2020 were identified in TriNetX from 41 Health Care Organizations using ICD-10 codes (T.20-T.30) and identified as lived/died. These were compared to the non-survival data from 90 certified burn centers in NBR database between 2016-2018. The patient population was stratified by age into subgroups of 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-20 years. Overall, mortality rates for paediatric burn patients were found to be .62% in NBR and .52% in TrinetX. Boys had a higher incidence of mortality than girls in both databases (0.34% vs. 0.28% NBR, p = 0.13; 0.31% vs. 0.21% TriNetX, p = <0.001). Comparison of ethnic cohorts between 2010-2015 and 2016-2020 subgroups showed that non-survival rates of African American children increased relative to White children (TriNetX, p = <0.001), however, evidence was insufficient to conclude that African American children die more frequently than other ethnicities (NBR, p=0.054). When analyzing subgroups in TriNetX, burned children ages 5-9 had significantly increased frequency of non-survival, (p = <0.001). However, NBR data suggested that children 0-4 experience the highest frequency of mortality (p = <0.001). The non-survival distributions between these two large databases accurately reflects non-survival rates in burned children.

Prognosis value of revised Baux score among burn patients in developing country

The aims of this study was to determine prognosis value of revised Baux score for burn patients in developing country. A retrospective study was conducted on all burn hospitalized patients at National Burn Hospital, Hanoi, Viet Nam during a period from 01/1/2015 to 31/12/2019. Collected criteria included age, burn extent, inhalation injury, death or survive, Baux and revised Baux score of each patients. AUC and SMR was compared between two scores. Prognosis value of revised Baux score was also classified according to age groups. The results showed that AUC of revided Baux score was significantly higher than that of Baux score (0.96 vs. 0.95; p=0.001). SMR of revised Baux score was closer to 1 than that of Baux score (1.03 vs. 1.14 respectively). For revised Baux score, AUC was highest in adult patients (0.98±0.01) followed by elderly and pediatric patients. In addition, SMR was 0.99 in adult group, 0.77 in elderly patient and was 4.36 in pediatric patients. In conclusion, the revised Baux score is more accurate than the Baux score but should only be recommended to apply in prognosis for adult and elderly burn patients in developing country.

Evaluation of Electrical Burn Injuries in Iran: A 7 year retrospective study

Electrical burn injuries can cause devastating and debilitating morbidities and impairments for patients. This cross-sectional descriptive study was performed on electrical burn patients hospitalized from 2014 to 2019 to evaluate electrical burn injuries' epidemiology and characteristics. A total number of 726 patients with the mean age of 31.17 years were evaluated for electrical burn injuries. Mean total burn surface area (TBSA) was 16.61 ± 12.56. Most victims were male (696 cases, 95.7%); and most patients did not have a constant job (n = 458, 63%). Most affected burn sites were hands (28.6%) and upper limbs (27.8%). A total number of 89 (12.2%) patients suffered amputations with the hand fingers (64 cases) as the most common site. Low voltage injuries were more common (n = 649 , 89%). Most incidents happened at the workplace (n =459 , 63%). Comparison of patients with high voltage and low voltage injuries showed significant correlations and statistical difference between these 2 groups regarding TBSA, mean hospital stays, escharectomy, fasciotomy, amputations, debridement, fracture and mortality rate (P = 0.001). Our observation revealed that electrical burn injuries are still significant causes of morbidity and mortality among trauma patients. In contrast to previous studies, low voltage injuries were more common than high voltage ones. We propose improvements in the manufacturing of electrical appliances; paying attention to safety measures will reduce thenumber of incidents. Moreover, training and education play important roles in reducing the number of incidents and mortality rates.

No Difference in Morbidity or Mortality Between Octogenarians and Other Geriatric Burn Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND

Geriatric burn trauma patients (age ≥65 years) have a 5-fold higher mortality rate than younger adults. With the population of the US aging, the number of elderly burn and trauma patients is expected to increase. A past study using the National Burn Repository revealed a linear increase in mortality for those >65 years old. We hypothesized that octogenarians with burn and trauma injuries would have a higher rate of in-hospital complications and mortality, than patients aged 65-79 years old.

METHODS

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2010-2016) was queried for burn trauma patients. To detect mortality risk a multivariable logistic regression model was used.

RESULTS

From 282 patients, there were 73 (25.9%) octogenarians and 209 (74.1%) aged 65-79 years old. The two cohorts had similar median injury severity scores (16 vs. 15 in octogenarians, P = .81), total body surface area burned (P = .30), and comorbidities apart from an increased smoking (12.9% vs. 4.1%, P = .04) and decreased hypertension (52.2% vs. 65.8%, P = .04) in the younger cohort. Octogenarians had similar complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis (P > .05), and mortality (15.1% vs. 10.5%, P = .30), compared to the younger cohort. Octogenarians were not associated with an increased mortality risk (odds ratio 1.51, confidence interval 0.24-9.56, P = .67).

DISCUSSION

Among burn trauma patients ≥65 years, age should not be a sole predictor for mortality risk. Continued research is necessary in order to determine more accurate approaches to prognosticate mortality in geriatric burn trauma patients, such as the validation and refinement of a burn-trauma-related frailty index.

Advanced age heightens hepatic damage in a murine model of scald burn injury

BACKGROUND

Elderly burn patients exhibit a lower survival rate compared with younger counterparts. The liver is susceptible to damage after burn injury, which predisposes to poor outcomes. Lipid homeostasis and the antioxidant glutathione system play fundamental roles in preserving liver integrity. Herein, we explored changes in these major pathways associated with liver damage in the aging animals after burn injury.

METHODS

We compared liver enzymes, histology, lipid-peroxidation, and glutathione-metabolism profiles from young and aged female mice after a 15% total body surface area burn. Mice were euthanized at 24 hours after injury, and livers and serum were collected.

RESULTS

Aged burn animals exhibited elevated (p < 0.05) aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase levels and increased inflammatory cell infiltration, edema, and necrosis compared with their younger counterparts. The percentage of adipophilin-stained area in livers from young sham, young burn, aged sham, and aged burn groups was 10%, 44%, 16%, and 78% (p < 0.05), respectively. Liver malondialdehyde levels were 1.4 ± 0.5 nmol/mg, 2.06 ± 0.2 nmol/mg, 1.81 ± 0.12 nmol/mg, and 3.45 ± 0.2 nmol/mg (p < 0.05) in young sham, young burn, aged sham, and aged burn mice, respectively. Oxidized glutathione (GSSG) content increased 50% in the young burn, and 88% in aged burn animals compared with the young sham group (p < 0.05). The reduced glutathione GSH/GSSG ratio was significantly reduced by 54% in aged burn mice compared with young sham animals (p < 0.05). Furthermore, glutathione peroxidase gene expression showed a 96% decrease in the aged burn group compared with young sham mice (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Aged burn animals exhibit severe liver damage from heightened lipid peroxidation and inadequate antioxidative response. The increased peroxidation is associated with abundant lipid deposits in hepatic tissue postburn and a weak antioxidative response due to hepatic glutathione peroxidase downregulation. Further studies will focus on the functional significance of these findings concerning hepatic homeostasis.

Does early bloodstream infection pose a significant risk of in-hospital mortality in adults with burns?

BACKGROUD/PURPOSE

Bloodstream infections (BSI) are common in patients with major burns, but its effect on mortality remains controversial. This study was aimed to investigate if BSI is significant risk factor of mortality?

METHODS

This is a retrospective chart review study included 266 adult patients admitted to our burn center from 2000 to 2019. Age, sex, inhalation injuries, total burn surface area (TBSA), duration of stay in intensive care unit, BSI and mortality were variables studied. Fisher exact test, Mann-Whitney test and logistic regression was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

There were 234 survivors and 32 non-survivors. Male was predominant. The overall incidence of BSI was 18.8%, and the overall crude mortality was 12%. Burns ≥30% TBSA and BSI were significant risk factors. A predictive function based on30% TBSA and BSI within 14 days after the onset of burns (BSI-14) was derived. The function has a sensitivity of 0.97, specificity of 0.42 and achieved a maximum Youden Index at functional value ≥0.05727. The mortality probability of BSI-14 in burns ≥30% TBSA was 40.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

BSI and burns ≥30% TBSA were significant risk factors of mortality. Early detection of BSI-14 is critical in burn care as its probability of mortality can be as high as 40% in patients ≥30% TBSA of burns. To reduce the risk of mortality, early in ventilator withdrawal, invasive lines and tubes removal, and early grafting should be emphasized besides infection control and appropriate use of antibiotics.

Candidemia in pediatric burn patients: Risk factors and outcomes in a retrospective cohort study

Background and Purpose :

Despite advances in burn care and management, infections are still a major contributor to morbidity and mortality rates in patients with burn injuries. Regarding this, the present study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and importance of candidemia in pediatric burn patients.

Materials and Methods:

Blood samples were collected from the patients and cultured in an automated blood culture system. Candida species were identified using specific culture media. The relationship between candidemia and possible risk factors was evaluated and compared to a control group.

Results:

A total of 71 patients with the mean age of 4.52±3.63 years were included in the study. Blood cultures showed candidemia in 19 (27%) patients. Based on the results, C. albicans was the most common fungus among patients with and without candidemia. The results of statistical analysis also showed that candidemia was significantly correlated with total body surface area (TBSA), mechanical ventilation, duration of total parenteral nutrition, length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, presence of neutropenia, and R-Baux score (all P≤0.001). In this regard, TBSA, length of ICU stay, R-Baux score, and Candida score were identified as the determinant factors for mortality due to candidemia.

Conclusion:

Candidemia increases the mortality and morbidity rates associated with burn injuries. Prompt diagnostic and prevention measures can reduce the unfortunate outcomes via controlling the possible risk factors.

Re-evaluation of the Effect of Age on In-hospital Burn Mortality in a Resource-Limited Setting

BACKGROUND

This global burden of burn injury is suffered disproportionately by people in low-income and middle-income countries, where 70% of all burns occur. Models based in high-income countries to prognosticate burn mortality treat age as a linearly increasing risk factor. It is unclear whether this relationship is similar in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

We analyzed patients from the Kamuzu Central Hospital Burn Registry in Lilongwe, Malawi, from 2011 to 2019. We examined the relationship between burn-associated mortality and age using adjusted survival analysis over 60 d, categorized into four groups: (1) younger children <5 y; (2) older children 5-17 y; (3) adults 18-40 y; and (4) older adults >40 y.

RESULTS

A total of 2499 patients were included. Most patients were <5 y old (n = 1444) with only 133 patients >40 y. Older adults had the highest crude mortality at 34.6% and older children with the lowest at 13%. Compared to younger children, the hazard ratio adjusted for sex, percent total body surface area, and operative intervention was 0.59 (95% confidence interval, 0.44, 0.79) for older children and 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.40, 0.76) for adults. Older adults were statistically similar to younger children.

CONCLUSIONS

We show in this cohort study of burn-injured patients in a resource-limited environment that the relationship between mortality and age is not linear and that the use of age-categorized mortality prediction models is more accurate in delineating mortality characteristics. Categorizing age based on local burn epidemiology will help describe burn mortality characteristics more accurately, leading to better-informed management strategies aimed at attenuating burn mortality for different populations.

Hepatic inflammation after burn injury is associated with necroptotic cell death signaling

BACKGROUND

Burn injury still has a high attributable mortality. The elevated mortality rate of severe burns is still concerning. Hepatic inflammation and injury are common after burns and are associated with poor outcomes. Necroptosis is a programmed cell death linked with inflammation. Thus, assessing necroptotic pathways in the liver can lead to new therapeutic modalities to improve mortality after severe burns.

METHODS

Mice underwent 15% total body surface area burn or sham injury. Three hours after burn, the mice were euthanized to collect blood and livers. Histology, injury markers, genes expression, and tissue protein levels were compared between groups.

RESULTS

Compared with sham, burned mice had heightened liver inflammatory cell infiltration and edema. Serum aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase were increased by 4.9- and 3.4-fold, respectively, in burned mice relative to sham (p < 0.05). Expression of tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin-6, interleukin-1β, and CXCL1 (KC) genes were elevated in livers of burned mice by 10-, 86-, 10-, and 828-fold, respectively, compared with sham (p < 0.05). Expression of necroptotic genes, namely, receptor-interacting protein kinases 1 and 3, and mixed lineage kinase domain-like in livers of burned mice were increased by 10-, 13-, and 4.5-fold, respectively, relative to sham (p < 0.05). Receptor-interacting protein kinase 1 and phosphorylated mixed lineage kinase domain-like protein levels measured by Western-blot in livers after burn injury were elevated by 22- and 17-fold, respectively, compared with sham (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Liver damage occurs early after burns in mice and is associated with elevation of proinflammatory cytokines, chemokine, and proteins involved in the necroptotic pathway. This study suggests that necroptosis plays a role in the pathogenesis of liver failure secondary to burn injury.

High Versus Low Volume Fluid Resuscitation Strategies in a Porcine Model (Sus scrofa) of Combined Thermal and Traumatic Brain Injury

BACKGROUND

Combined burn and traumatic brain injury (TBI) treatment priorities may not align due to opposing fluid resuscitation paradigms used in treating burns and TBI. We developed a porcine model of combined thermal injury/TBI and compared an "aggressive" fluid resuscitation strategy using the Parkland formula and a "restrictive" resuscitation strategy using the modified Brooke formula.

METHODS

Twenty-eight swine were deeply anesthetized and received a 40% total body surface area full-thickness burn injury and TBI. Swine were then randomized to receive restrictive or aggressive resuscitation for 8 h after which time animals were euthanized and necropsy was performed. Volume of brain injury was assessed after analyzing segmental slices of brain tissue.

RESULTS

There were no differences between the restrictive and aggressive resuscitation groups in blood pressure, heart rate, central venous pressure, intra-cranial pressure (ICP), or serum lactate levels after 8 h of resuscitation. Urine output was higher in the aggressive resuscitation group. The restrictive group had a significantly higher serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN) compared with baseline and compared with the aggressive group. There was no significant difference in size of brain injury between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Both restrictive and aggressive resuscitation demonstrated adequate resuscitation at 8 h postinjury. Increased serum BUN in the restrictive group may be an indicator of early acute kidney injury, despite adequate urine output. Resuscitation strategy did not appear to affect ICP or the size of brain injury.

A predictive model for prolonged hospital length of stay in surgical burn patients

BACKGROUND

Improvement in the care of burn patients has led to decreased mortality. Length of stay (LOS) has been used as a marker for quality of care in this population. However, the historical association of LOS as correlating only with % burn surface area (BSA) injury has been questioned with retrospective data suggesting other factors may also be associated with LOS. A model to predict prolonged LOS does not exist but could provide important information for clinicians and patients.

METHODS

Data from January 2014 to December 2016 was used to develop a predictive model utilizing multivariable logistic regression. Prolonged hospital LOS was the outcome used with multiple covariates utilized to identify various associations. Odds ratios (OR) and their associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported for each covariate in the final regression model. Model performance in both the training and validation sets was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test for goodness-of-fit.

RESULTS

A total of 441 patients was included in the final analysis, 296 (67.1%) of which were in the training set. Within the training set, the median hospital LOS was 14 days with a range of 4 to 205 days. Patient age (in decades), hypertension, total BSA, involvement of perineum, and abnormal white blood cell count were independent risk factors for prolonged hospital length of stay. When using this separate dataset, the model had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.88) and had good calibration based on the HL-test (p=0.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Prolonged hospitalization following burns is predicted by patient age (in decades), TBSA, hypertension, perineal involvement, and abnormal white blood cell count.

Trends of Burn Injury in the United States: 1990 to 2016

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to report patterns of burn injury within the United States from 1990 to 2016 with regard to age, sex, geography, and year.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Advances in the management of burn injuries as well as successful public health efforts have contributed to reductions in the annual incidence and mortality of burns. However, several studies suggest that these reductions are not equally distributed throughout the US population.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 was utilized to collect incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLD) from 1990 to 2016. All measures were computed with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

RESULTS

The overall incidence of burn injury in the United States has decreased from 215 (95% UI, 183-246) to 140 (95% UI, 117-161) per 100,000. However, the relative mortality of burn injury has been fixed over the 26-year study period. Alaska had the highest rates of burn incidence in 1990 and 2016, closely followed by southeastern states. When adjusted for incidence, relative mortality in 1990 was highest in Alabama and Mississippi and the mortality-incidence ratio increased for these states in 2016. In addition, 35 states also demonstrated an increase in the relative mortality of burn injury during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Regional trends of burn incidence and mortality are highly variable and are likely due to a multitude of factors. Addressing these disparities will require close examination of the contributing factors of burn injury and severity.

The role of concomitant alcohol and drug use in increased risk for burn mortality outcomes

BACKGROUND

Burn injuries are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in low- and middle-income countries, with high rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. The risks may be heightened for persons who present with concomitant use of alcohol and illicit substances, which increase the risk for injury and severely compromise prognosis following injury.

METHODS

This study utilised a national dataset on hospitalised burns in South Africa to explore the risk for mortality relative to morbidity. To assess the influence of alcohol and drugs in mortality outcomes, the analysis was restricted to adult cases, 18 years and older (N = 918). The primary statistical procedures used in the analysis were logistic regression models.

FINDINGS

The results indicate that burn victims with full thickness and partial thickness burn degree and more than 30% TBSA had a significantly increased risk of mortality. In addition, the risk for mortality was increased ten times when concomitant alcohol and drugs were indicated compared to cases where these were absent. The length of stay in hospital diminished the risk for mortality by about 10%.

INTERPRETATION

The findings may be explained by the role of skin as the main barrier against infections and the concurrent increase in risk of infection based on the degree and extent of any damage. The combined presence of both alcohol and drugs may predispose towards more severe burns and greatly compromise liver function with heightened risk for sepsis and death.

Allogeneic mesenchymal stem cells for treatment of severe burn injury

The most important determinant of survival post-burn injury is wound healing. For decades, allogeneic mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been suggested as a potential treatment for severe burn injuries. This report describes a patient with a severe burn injury whose wounds did not heal with over 18 months of conventional burn care. When treated with allogeneic MSCs, wound healing accelerated with no adverse treatment complications. Wound sites showed no evidence of keloids or hypertrophic formation during a 6-year follow-up period. This therapeutic use of allogeneic MSCs for large non-healing burn wounds was deemed safe and effective and has great treatment potential.

[Not Available]

Psychiatric disorders in burn victims are well known and studied, but few articles treat the impact of pre-existing psychiatric pathologies on the evolution of burns. The aim of our study is to compare the evolution in terms of complications, length of stay and survival between patients with and without pre-existing mental disorders. This is a bi-centric case-control study (N = 92), conducted at the Plastic Surgery Department of Rabat University Hospital, and the Plastic Surgery Department of the Tangier-Morocco Regional Hospital, between January 2012 and February 2018. Characteristics of the patients were collected and two groups of patients were identified and compared (n = 67): a preexisting mental disorder group (n = 22) and a control group (n = 45). TBSA (total body surface area) burned and 2nd and 3rd degree burned TBSA were significantly greater in the group with a history of mental disorders compared to the control group (p = 0.012, p <0.001, p = 0.014). Mean length of stay before discharge was greater (p = 0.005). Finally, mortality in the group with pre-existing mental illness was 31.8% versus 6.7% in the control group (p = 0.011). Patients with pre-existing mental disorders seem to present worse burns and need more time to recover from them, resulting in higher morbidity and mortality and a higher cost of care. The systematic screening of burned patients in search of a psychiatric diagnosis and early management of these disorders could improve the prognosis and quality of life of these patients.

Impact of Ulinastatin on Outcomes in Acute Burns Patients

Burns is a global health problem with significant morbidity and mortality. Ulinastatin, a serine protease inhibitor, has the potential to improve outcomes in burns. A retrospective comparative case note review analysis was performed to assess the impact of ulinastatin on the outcomes in acute burns patients. Acute burns patients, admitted to Masina hospital, Mumbai, from October 2012 to April 2015, who received ulinastatin, were identified from the hospital records. A similarly sized cohort of patients, admitted before the introduction of ulinastatin, was also identified. Relevant data were obtained from archived patient files. The outcomes, mortality and length of hospital stay, were compared across different groups and subgroups. Data of 97 patients, 48 of whom received ulinastatin (ulinastatin group) and 49 of whom did not (control group), were captured. Patients in ulinastatin group had received ulinastatin 100,000 IU, 8 to 12 hourly, during a mean period of 8.8 days, based on clinical judgment, in addition to standard hospital care. The in-hospital mortality was lower (60.4%) in ulinastatin group compared with control group (75.5%). The difference in mortality was statistically significant (50% vs 77.27%; P = .04) in those with 41 to 80% burnt BSA. Mean length of hospital stay, where shorter duration of hospitalization is usually associated with death, was higher in ulinastatin group compared with the control group. Ulinastatin appears to reduce mortality in acute burns patients, especially in those with intermediate extent (40 to 80%) of burnt BSA. It also appears to delay death in those who ultimately succumbed to their burn injuries.

Predictors of mortality in cases of thermal burns admitted to Burn Unit, Ain Shams University Hospitals, Cairo

In cases of death due to burn injury, it may be of great medico-legal importance to determine if the death is caused by fatal burn injury or due to other factors related to treatment. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate early predictors of mortality in patients with thermal burns admitted to Burn Unit, Ain Shams University Hospitals during a period of one year (2011). The study included 152 cases, mortalities represented 20.4% of the included cases (31 cases). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that, total body surface area (TBSA) of the burns and APACHE III score were significant predictors of mortality. This model resulted in accurate classification of 95.9% of the cases. Further multi-centric studies on larger sample sizes are recommended to validate the results of this study. Also, it is important to study the effect of co-morbidities as confounding factors on the prediction of mortality in patients with thermal burns.

Survival analysis and mortality predictors of hospitalized severe burn victims in a Malaysian burns intensive care unit

Background

Prognostic measures to determine burn mortality are essential in evaluating the severity of individual burn victims. This is an important process of triaging patients with high risk of mortality that may be nursed in the acute care setting. Malaysian burn research is lacking with only one publication identified which describes the epidemiology of burn victims. Therefore, the objective of this study was to go one step further and identify the predictors of burn mortality from a Malaysian burns intensive care unit (BICU) which may be used to triage patients at higher risk of death.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of all admissions to Hospital Sultan Ismail’s BICU from January 2010 till October 2015. Admission criteria were in accordance with the American Burn Association guidelines, and risk factors of interest were recorded. Data was analyzed using simple logistic regression to determine significant predictors of mortality. Survival analysis with time to death event was performed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve with log-rank test.

Results

Through the 6-year period, 393 patients were admitted with a male preponderance of 73.8%. The mean age and length of stay were 35.6 (±15.72) years and 15.3 (±18.91) days. There were 48 mortalities with an overall mortality rate of 12.2%. Significant risk factors identified on simple logistic regression were total body surface area (TBSA) > 20% (p < 0.001), inhalation injury (p < 0.001) and presence of early systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (p < 0.001). Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed similar results with TBSA > 20%, presence of SIRS, mechanical ventilation and inhalation injury which were associated with poorer survival (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The predictors of mortality identified in a Malaysian BICU were TBSA > 20%, early SIRS, mechanical ventilation and inhalation injury which were associated with poorer survival outcome. The immunological response differs from individual patients and influenced by the severity of burn injury. Early SIRS on admission is an important predictor of death and may represent the severity of burn injury. Patients who required mechanical ventilation were associated with mortality and it is likely related to the severity of pulmonary insults sustained by individual patients. This data is important for outcome prognostication and mortality risk counselling in severely burned patients.

Adjuvant effect of oral Silymarin on patients' wound healing process caused by thermal injuries

Background:

According to the side effects of the usual treatment of burns, in improving the patients’ prognosis, there is a need to introduce faster and more effective adjuvant therapies to treat wounds, thus to improve the prognosis of patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of adjuvant treatment with oral silymarin on wound healing process caused by second degree-burns among the patients admitted to Valiasr Hospital of Arak.

Methods:

This randomized, double-blind clinical trial study was carried out on 80 patients with second-degree burns covering 20 to 30 percent of the body with flame. Patients were randomized into 2 groups with an equal number: The intervention group (treated daily with oral 140-mg silymarin) and control (under the administration of placebo). Patients were treated for 8 weeks and at the end of weeks 1, 2, 3 and 4 according to the degree of wound healing (grade 1, 2 and 3) were followed during 2016-2017.

Results:

Changes in degrees of burn wound healing in both the intervention and placebo groups during the 4 weeks of treatment, significantly improved grade 3 completely. Based on the results, the complete remission in all four follow-up stages was significantly higher in silymarin group than the placebo group: Week 1 (intervention: 9 (22.5%), control: 0 (0%), (p=0.011), week 2 (intervention group: 18 (45%), placebo: 7 (17.5%), (p=0.000), week 3 (intervention: 24 (60%), placebo: 11 ( 27.5%), (p=0.051); week 4 (intervention: 27 (67.5%), control: 19 (47.5%), (p=0.003).

Conclusions:

According to our results, the 4-week adjuvant treatment with oral silymarin resulted in the full and faster wound recovery in patients with second degree-burn. So, it is recommended to use adjuvant treatments to obtain effective results.

Multi-institutional analysis of independent predictors for burn mortality in the United States

Background

Previous reports individually identified different factors that predict death after burns. The authors employed the multi-center American Burn Association's (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) to elucidate which parameters have the highest negative impact on burn mortality.

Methods

We audited data from the NBR v8.0 for the years 2002-2011 and included 137,061 patients in our study. The cases were stratified into two cohorts based on the primary outcome of death/survival and then evaluated for demographic data, intraoperative details, and their morbidity after admission. A multivariable regression analysis aimed to identify independent risk factors associated with mortality.

Results

A total of 3.3% of patients in this analysis did not survive their burn injuries. Of those, 52.0% expired within 7 days after admission. Patients in the mortality cohort were of older age (p < 0.001), more frequently female (p < 0.001), and had more pre-existing comorbidities (p < 0.001). Total body surface area (TBSA), inhalation injury, hospitalization time, and occurrence of complications were higher compared to survivors (p < 0.001). Lack of insurance (odds ratio (OR) = 1.84, confidence interval (CI) 1.38-2.46), diabetes (OR = 1.24, CI 1.01-1.53), any complication (OR = 4.09, CI 3.27-5.12), inhalation injury (OR = 3.84, CI 3.38-4.36), and the need for operative procedures (OR = 2.60, CI 2.20-3.08) were the strongest independent contributors to mortality after burns (p < 0.001). Age (OR = 1.07, CI 1.06-1.07) and TBSA (OR = 1.09, CI 1.09-1.09) were significant on a continuous scale (p < 0.001) while overall comorbidities were not a statistical risk factor.

Conclusion

Uninsured status, inhalation injury, in-hospital complications, and operative procedures were the strongest mortality predictors after burns. Since most fatal outcomes (52.0%) occur within 7 days after injury, physicians and medical staff need to be aware of these risk factors upon patient admission to a burn center.

Seeing the forest beyond the trees: Predicting survival in burn patients with machine learning

BACKGROUND

This study aims to identify predictors of survival for burn patients at the patient and hospital level using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

The HCUP SID for California, Florida and New York were used to identify patients admitted with a burn diagnosis and merged with hospital data from the AHA Annual Survey. Random forest and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) were used to identify predictors of survival at the patient and hospital level from the top performing model.

RESULTS

We analyzed 31,350 patients from 670 hospitals. SGB (AUC 0.93) and random forest (AUC 0.82) best identified patient factors such as age and absence of renal failure (p < 0.001) and hospital factors such as full time residents (p < 0.001) and nurses (p = 0.004) to be associated with increased survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient and hospital factors are predictive of survival in burn patients. It is difficult to control patient factors, but hospital factors can inform decisions about where burn patients should be treated.

Ubiquitin Urine Levels in Burn Patients

The objective of this study was to determine whether urine ubiquitin levels are elevated after burns and to assess whether urine ubiquitin could be useful as a noninvasive biomarker for burn patients. Forty burn patients (%TBSA: 20 ± 22; modified Baux scores: 73 ± 26) were included (control: 11 volunteers). Urine was collected in 2-hour intervals for 72 hours, followed by 12-hour intervals until discharge from the intensive care unit. Ubiquitin concentrations were analyzed by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and Western blot. Total protein was determined with a Bradford assay. Patient characteristics and clinical parameters were documented. Urine ubiquitin concentrations, renal ubiquitin excretion, and excretion rates were correlated with patient characteristics and outcomes. Initial urine ubiquitin concentrations were 362 ± 575 ng/ml in patients and 14 ± 18 ng/ml in volunteers (P < .01). Renal ubiquitin excretion on day 1 was 292.6 ± 510.8 μg/24 hr and 21 ± 27 μg/24 hr in volunteers (P < .01). Initial ubiquitin concentrations correlated with modified Baux scores (r = .46; P = .02). Ubiquitin levels peaked at day 6 postburn, whereas total protein concentrations and serum creatinine levels remained within the normal range. Total renal ubiquitin excretion and excretion rates were higher in patients with %TBSA ≥20 than with %TBSA <20, in patients who developed sepsis/multiple organ failure than in patients without these complications and in nonsurvivors vs survivors. These data suggest that ubiquitin urine levels are significantly increased after burns. Renal ubiquitin excretion and/or excretion rates are associated with %TBSA, sepsis/multiple organ failure, and mortality. Although these findings may explain previous correlations between systemic ubiquitin levels and outcomes after burns, the large variability of ubiquitin urine levels suggests that urine ubiquitin will not be useful as a noninvasive disease biomarker.

Propranolol Reduces Cardiac Index But does not Adversely Affect Peripheral Perfusion in Severely Burned Children

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of propranolol on hemodynamic parameters assessed using the PiCCO system in burned children.

METHODS

We analyzed hemodynamic data from patients who were randomized to receive either propranolol (4 mg/kg/day) or placebo (control), which was initiated as a prospective randomized controlled trial. Endpoints were cardiac index (CI), percent predicted heart rate (%HR), mean arterial pressure (MAP), percent predicted stroke volume (%SV), rate pressure product (RPP), cardiac work (CW), systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI), extravascular lung water index (EVLWI), arterial blood gases, events of lactic acidosis, and mortality. Mixed multiple linear regressions were applied, and a 95% level of confidence was assumed.

RESULTS

One hundred twenty-one burned children (control: n = 62, propranolol: n = 59) were analyzed. Groups were comparable in demographics, EVLWI, SVRI, %SV, arterial blood gases, Denver 2 postinjury organ failure score, incidence of lactic acidosis, or mortality. Percent predicted HR, MAP, CI, CW, and RPP were significantly reduced in the propranolol-treated group (P <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Propranolol significantly reduces cardiogenic stress by reducing CI and MAP in children with severe burn injury. However, peripheral oxygen delivery was not reduced and events of lactic acidosis as well as organ dysfunction was not higher in propranolol treated patients.

A prospective analysis of risk factors for pediatric burn mortality at a tertiary burn center in North India

BACKGROUND

None of the available mortality predicting models in pediatric burns precisely predicts outcomes in every population. Mortality rates as well as their risk factors vary with regions and among different centers within the regions. The aim of this study was to identify socio-demographic and clinical risk factors for mortality in pediatric burns in an effort to decrease the mortality in these patients.

METHODS

A prospective analytical study was conducted in patients up to the age of 18 years admitted for burn injuries in a tertiary care burn center in India from January to December 2014. Clinical and demographic data was collected through questionnaire-interview and patient follow-up during their stay in the hospital. Univariate and multivariate firth logistic regression was used to identify various risk factors for mortality in pediatric burns.

RESULTS

A total of 475 patients were admitted during the study period. Overall mortality was 31.3% (n = 149) in this study. Mean age of the patients who died was 8.68 years. Of the 149 deaths, 74 were males and 75 were females (male to female ratio = 0.98). Mean total body surface area (TBSA) involved of the patients who expired was 62%. Inhalational injury was seen in 15.5% (n = 74) of pediatric burn admissions. Mortality was significantly higher (74.3%) in patients with inhalation injury. Mortality was highest in patients with isolates of Acinetobacter + Klebsiella (58.3%), followed by Pseudomonas + Klebsiella (53.3%), Acinetobacter (31.5%), and Pseudomonas (26.3%) (p < 0.0005). Factors found to be significant on univariate firth analysis were older age, female gender, suicidal burns, higher TBSA, presence of inhalation injury, increased depth of burn, and positive microbial cultures. On multivariate analysis, higher TBSA was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality. The adjusted odds ratios for TBSA involvement was 21.706 (25.1-50%), 136.195 (50.1-75%), and 1019.436 (75.1-100%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

TBSA is the most important factor predicting mortality in pediatric burns. The higher the TBSA, the higher is the risk of mortality. Other significant risk factors for mortality are female gender, deeper burns, positive wound cultures, and inhalation injury. Risk of mortality was significantly lower in children who belonged to urban areas, nuclear family, who sustained burn injury in the last quarter of the year, and who stayed in the hospital for longer period.

Pre-existing psychiatric disorder in the burn patient is associated with worse outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To compare patient and burn characteristics between patients who had a pre-existing psychiatric diagnosis and patients who did not in a Burn Unit at an academic hospital.

BACKGROUND

Psychosocial issues are common in patients recovering from a burn; however, little is known regarding hospital course and discharge outcomes in patients with a pre-existing psychiatric diagnosis presenting with a burn. Baseline medical comorbidities of burn patients have been shown to be a significant risk for in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of 479 consecutive patients admitted to the Burn Unit of an academic hospital in Halifax, Nova Scotia between March 2nd 1995 and June 1st 2013 was performed. Extensive data regarding patient and burn characteristics and outcomes was collected. Patients with and without pre-existing psychiatric diagnoses at the time of hospital admission were compared.

RESULTS

Sixty-three (13%) patients had a psychiatric diagnosis, with the most common being depression (52%). Forty-percent (n=25/63) of these patients had multiple pre-existing psychiatric diagnoses. Patients with a psychiatric diagnosis had a greater total-body-surface-area (TBSA)% covered by a third-degree burn (p=0.001), and were more likely to have an inhalation injury (p<0.001). These patients were also significantly more likely to experience 6 of the 10 most prevalent in-hospital complications and had a higher mortality rate (p=0.02). They were less likely to be discharged home (p=0.001), and more likely to go to a home hospital (p=0.04) or rehabilitation facility (p=0.03). Psychiatric diagnosis was associated with significantly more placement issues (e.g. rehab bed unavailability, homeless) upon discharge from the Burn Unit (p=0.01). The risk of death in burn patients with pre-existing psychiatric disorders was about three times the risk of death in patients with no psychiatric disorders when adjusting for other potential confounders (95% CI, 1.13-9.10; p-value 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Presence of a pre-existing psychiatric disorder in the burn patient was associated with worse outcomes and was a significant predictor of death. Psychiatric diagnoses should be identified early in burn treatment and efforts should be made to ensure a comprehensive approach to inpatient support and patient discharge to reduce unfavorable burn outcomes and placement issues.

Epidemiology of pediatric burns in southwest China from 2011 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Burns are a major form of injury in children worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology, outcome, cost and risk factors of pediatric burns in southwest China.

METHODS

This retrospective study was performed at the Institute of Burn Research of the Third Military Medical University from 2011 to 2015. Data, including demographic, injury-related, and clinical data and patient outcome, were collected from medical records.

RESULTS

A total of 2478 children with burns (58.03% boys), accounting for 39.2% of total burn patients, were included. The average age of the burn patients was 2.86±2.86years, and most patients (85.55%) were under five years old. The incidence of burns peaked in January, February and May. Scald burns were the most frequent (79.06%), followed by flame burns (14.0%) and electrical burns (3.35%). Limbs were the most common burn sites (69.73%), and the average total body surface area (TBSA) was 11.57±11.61%. The percentage of children who underwent operations and the number of operations were significantly increased in cases of electrical burns, the older-age group, a larger TBSA and full-thickness burns. Six deaths were recorded, yielding a mortality of 0.24%. The median length of stay and cost were 14days and 9541 CNY, respectively, and the major risk factors for length of stay and cost were the TBSA, number of operations, full-thickness burns and outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In southwest China, among children under five years old, scald and flame burns should become the key prevention target, and future prevention strategies should be based on related risk factors.

Comparison of six outcome prediction models in an adult burn population in a developing country

There are two types of prognostic model - burn-specific and general - to predict mortality risk in burn patients. Most prediction models were devised in developed countries. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of six outcome models in a developing country. In a retrospective cohort study, data of all thermal burned adult patients (age ≥ 18 years) admitted to the Burn Intensive Care Unit (BICU) were collected and then the following six prediction models were used to assess each patient: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury (BOBI), the Ryan model, revised Baux and FLAMES model. Discriminative ability and goodness-of-fit of the prediction models were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. We included 238 patients (mean age: 38.3 ± 18.39 years, average TBSA: 58.27% ± 24.55) in our study; 172 (72.3%) of them were diagnosed with inhalation injury and 178 (72.4%) were intubated. Mortality rate was 69.7%. Deceased patients had significantly higher mean age, %TBSA and number of inhalation injury. The area under the curve of the models was between 64.5 (APACHE II) and 85.9 (ABSI). The best estimation of predicted mortality was obtained with the ABSI model (67.2%).

Lower Serum Albumin Shortly After Admission Predicts Prolonged Hospital Stay in Younger Burn Patients

The purpose of this study was to assess whether albumin levels could be used to aid in the prediction of hospital stay in adult burn patients. A retrospective review of burn patients from 2009 to 2014 was used. Demographic, injury details, albumin levels within 72 hours of admission, and clinical outcomes were recorded. The abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI) was calculated for each patient. Hospital stay >3 weeks was defined as "prolonged stay." Since albumin showed a significant interaction with age, patients were divided into two groups based on a median age of 40 years. Albumin, total BSA, and ABSI were each used as predictors, and the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated. A composite score was created for the ≤ 40 years age group using ABSI and albumin levels to predict an increased length of stay. Thirty-eight of 198 (19.2%) patients had a stay >3 weeks. The AUCs for albumin level, total BSA, and ABSI alone in younger patients were 0.97, 0.97, and 0.96, respectively. Among patients older than 40, the AUC values were substantially lower indicating lower predictive value. The probability of prolonged stay for patients with albumin level ≥ 2.4 g/dl was low (.8%) compared with those with albumin level <2.4 g/dl (96.5%). Adding ABSI to this model increased predictive accuracy. Albumin level obtained within 72 hours of admission was an effective predictor of prolonged hospital stay in adult burn patients ≤ 40 years.

The Effect of Burn Center Volume on Mortality in a Pediatric Population: An Analysis of the National Burn Repository

The effect of burn center volume on mortality has been demonstrated in adults. The authors sought to evaluate whether such a relationship existed in burned children. The National Burn Repository, a voluntary registry sponsored by the American Burn Association, was queried for all data points on patients aged 18 years or less and treated from 2002 to 2011. Facilities were divided into quartiles based on average annual burn volume. Demographics and clinical characteristics were compared across groups, and univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to evaluate relationships between facility volume, patient characteristics, and mortality. The authors analyzed 38,234 patients admitted to 88 unique facilities. Children under age 4 years or with larger burns were more likely to be managed at high-volume and very high-volume centers (57.12 and 53.41%, respectively). Overall mortality was low (0.85%). Comparing mortality across quartiles demonstrated improved unadjusted mortality rates at the low- and high-volume centers compared with the medium-volume and very high-volume centers although univariate logistic regression did not find a significant relationship. However, multivariate analysis identified burn center volume as a significant predictor of decreased mortality after controlling for patient characteristics including age, mechanism of injury, burn size, and presence of inhalation injury. Mortality among pediatric burn patients is low and was primarily related to patient and injury characteristics, such as burn size, inhalation injury, and burn cause. Average annual admission rate had a significant but small effect on mortality when injury characteristics were considered.