Early prediction of persistent organ failure by serum apolipoprotein A-I and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with acute pancreatitis

Impact of metabolic syndrome components on clinical outcomes in hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia (HTG)-induced acute pancreatitis (AP) is steadily increasing in China, becoming the second leading cause of AP. Clinical complications and outcomes associated with HTG-AP are generally more severe than those seen in AP caused by other etiologies. HTG-AP is closely linked to metabolic dysfunction and frequently coexists with metabolic syndrome or its components. However, the impact of metabolic syndrome components on HTG-AP clinical outcomes remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the impact of metabolic syndrome component burden on clinical outcomes in HTG-AP.

METHODS

In this retrospective study of 255 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, we collected data on patient demographics, clinical scores, complications, and clinical outcomes. Subsequently, we analyzed the influence of the presence and number of individual metabolic syndrome components, including obesity, hyperglycemia, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), on the aforementioned parameters in HTG-AP patients.

RESULTS

This study found that metabolic syndrome components were associated with an increased risk of various complications in HTG-AP, with low HDL-C being the most significant risk factor for clinical outcomes. The risk of complications increased with the number of metabolic syndrome components. Adjusted for age and sex, patients with high-component metabolic syndrome had significantly higher risks of renal failure [odds ratio (OR) = 3.02, 95%CI: 1.12-8.11)], SAP (OR = 5.05, 95%CI: 2.04-12.49), and intensive care unit admission (OR = 6.41, 95%CI: 2.42-16.97) compared to those without metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSION

The coexistence of multiple metabolic syndrome components can synergistically worsen the clinical course of HTG-AP, making it crucial to monitor these components for effective disease management.

Machine learning improves early prediction of organ failure in hyperlipidemia acute pancreatitis using clinical and abdominal CT features

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate and validate machine-learning predictive models combining computed tomography and clinical data to early predict organ failure (OF) in Hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP).

METHODS

Demographics, laboratory parameters and computed tomography imaging data of 314 patients with HLAP from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between 2017 and 2021, were retrospectively analyzed. Sixty-five percent of patients (n = 204) were assigned to the training group and categorized as patients with and without OF. Parameters were compared by univariate analysis. Machine-learning methods including random forest (RF) were used to establish model to predict OF of HLAP. Areas under the curves (AUCs) of receiver operating characteristic were calculated. The remaining 35% patients (n = 110) were assigned to the validation group to evaluate the performance of models to predict OF.

RESULTS

Ninety-three (45.59%) and fifty (45.45%) patients from the training and the validation cohort, respectively, developed OF. The RF model showed the best performance to predict OF, with the highest AUC value of 0.915. The sensitivity (0.828) and accuracy (0.814) of RF model were both the highest among the five models in the study cohort. In the validation cohort, RF model continued to show the highest AUC (0.820), accuracy (0.773) and sensitivity (0.800) to predict OF in HLAP, while the positive and negative likelihood ratios and post-test probability were 3.22, 0.267 and 72.85%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine-learning models can be used to predict OF occurrence in HLAP in our pilot study. RF model showed the best predictive performance, which may be a promising candidate for further clinical validation.

Early Predictive Value of Different Indicators for Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

GOALS

In this study, we conducted this network meta-analysis (based on the ANOVA model) to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each early predictor.

BACKGROUND

Persistent organ failure (POF) is one of the determining factors in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP); however, the diagnosis of POF has a long-time lag (>48 h). It is of great clinical significance for the early noninvasive prediction of POF.

STUDY

We conducted a comprehensive and systematic search in PubMed, Cochrane library, Embase, and Web of Science to identify relevant clinical trials, case-control studies, or cohort studies, extracted the early indicators of POF in studies, and summarized the predictive efficacy of each indicator through network meta-analysis. The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was used to rank the prediction efficiency of each indicator.

RESULTS

We identified 23 studies in this network meta-analysis, including 10,393 patients with AP, of which 2014 patients had POF. A total of 10 early prediction indicators were extracted. The mean and 95% CI lower limit of each predictive indicator were greater than 1.0. Albumin had the largest diagnostic odds ratio, followed by high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), Ranson Score, beside index for severity in acute pancreatitis Score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, C-reactive protein (CRP), Interleukin 6 (IL-6), Interleukin 8 (IL-8), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and blood urea nitrogen.

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, Ranson Score, and beside index for severity in acute pancreatitis Score are effective in the early prediction of POF in patients with AP, which can provide evidence for developing effective prediction systems. However, due to the limitations of the extraction method of predictive indicators in this study, some effective indicators may not be included in this meta-analysis.

Exploring the interplay of gut microbiota, inflammation, and LDL-cholesterol: a multiomics Mendelian randomization analysis of their causal relationship in acute pancreatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease are both serious diseases in the digestive system. The pathogenesis of both diseases is extremely complex closely and it related to gut microbiota, inflammation, and blood fat. There is a close relationship between gut microbiota and blood lipids.

METHODS

In this study, we used three types of exposure: 412 gut microbiota, 731 inflammatory cells, and 91 inflammatory proteins (pqtls), with LDL-C as an intermediary and acute pancreatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease as outcomes. We mainly used MR-IVW, co-localization analysis, and reverse MR analysis methods for analysis.

RESULTS

7 gut microbiota, 21 inflammatory cells, and 3 inflammatory proteins can affect LDL-C levels. LDL-C is associated with acute pancreatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Three omics were used: 412 gut microbiota, 731 inflammatory cells, and 91 inflammatory proteins (pqtls). It explains the causal relationship between multiomics, LDL- cholesterol, acute pancreatitis, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol level as an independent protective factor against aggravation of acute pancreatitis: a case-control study

Background and aims

At present, evidence on the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and aggravation of acute pancreatitis (AP) is limited. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the lowest HDL-C level during intensive care units (ICU) stay and AP aggravation and to determine the optimum cutoff lowest HDL-C level.

Methods

Patients admitted to the ICU of the Shandong Provincial Hospital for AP from 2015 to 2021 were included. The lowest HDL-C level during ICU stay was set as the independent variable, and the progression or non-progression to severe AP (SAP) was set as the dependent variable. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the relationship between the two variables, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive ability of the lowest HDL-C level for progression to SAP.

Results

This study included 115 patients. The difference in the lowest HDL-C level between the SAP and moderately SAP groups was significant (P < 0.05). After adjusting for covariates, the lowest HDL-C level showed a negative correlation with the occurrence of SAP, with a relative risk of 0.897 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.973). The area under the ROC curve for prediction of AP aggravation by the lowest HDL-C level was 0.707, and the optimum cutoff lowest HDL-C level was 0.545 mmol/L.

Conclusion

No less than 0.545 mmol/L of the HDL-C level during ICU stay may be an independent protective factor for the aggravation of AP.

HDL inhibits pancreatic acinar cell NLRP3 inflammasome activation and protect against acinar cell pyroptosis in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Recent clinical studies have shown that serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels are correlated with acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. We aimed to investigate the role of HDL in pancreatic necrosis in AP.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

ApoA-I is the main constitution and function component of HDL. The roles of healthy human-derived HDL and apoA-I mimic peptide D4F were demonstrated in AP models in vivo and in vitro. Constitutive Apoa1 genetic inhibition on AP severity, especially pancreatic necrosis was assessed in both caerulein and sodium taurocholate induced mouse AP models. In addition, constitutive (Casp1-/-) and acinar cell conditional (Pdx1CreNlrp3Δ/Δ and Pdx1CreGsdmdΔ/Δ) mice were used to explore the effects of HDL on acinar cell pyroptosis in AP.

KEY RESULTS

Apoa1 knockout dramatically aggravated pancreatic necrosis. Human-derived HDL protected against acinar cell death in vivo and in vitro. We found that mimic peptide D4F also protected against AP very well. Constitutive Casp1 or acinar cell-conditional Nlrp3 and Gsdmd genetic inhibition could counteract the protective effects of HDL, implying HDL may exert beneficial effects on AP through inhibiting acinar cell pyroptosis.

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

This work demonstrates the protective role of HDL and apoA-I in AP pathology, potentially driven by the inhibition of NLRP3 inflammasome signaling and acinar cell pyroptosis. Mimic peptides have promise as specific therapies for AP.

Metabolic Risk Factors and Their Impact on Quality of Life in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer, Acute or Exacerbated Chronic Pancreatitis

Аim: to evaluate metabolic risk factors and their impact on quality of life in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) and in patients with acute or exacerbated chronic pancreatitis.

Materials and methods. Forty-five patients with PC (group 1) and 141 patients with acute pancreatitis or exacerbated chronic pancreatitis (group 2) in an observational multicenter clinical cross-sectional uncontrolled study were examined. Clinical, laboratory and instrumental examination of patients and assessment of risk factors (lipid profile, blood plasma glucose, obesity, arterial hypertension) were carried out in accordance with clinical recommendations. Patients completed the SF-36 questionnaire once to assess quality of life at hospital admission before treatment.

Results. In group 1, indicators of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in blood serum (3.7 ± 0.2; 2.2 ± 0.2 and 0.8 ± 0.1 mmol/L) were lower than in group 2 (5.1 ± 0.1; 3.1 ± 0.1 and 1.2 ± 0.1 mmol/L; p < 0.05). Arterial hypertension was more common in group 1 (55.6 %) than in group 2 (34.8 %; p = 0.013). The presence of arterial hypertension increases the chance of having PC by 2.7 times (p < 0.05). Body mass index parameters, including obesity, as well as parameters of triglycerides, and fasting plasma glucose, did not differ between the groups. Logistic regression analysis revealed a direct relationship with PC HDL hypocholesterolemia (Exp B = 4.976; p < 0.001) and arterial hypertension (Exp B = 2.742; p = 0.027) and an inverse relationship — with hypercholesterolemia (Exp B = 0.204; p = 0.002). The chance of having PC was not associated with age, fasting plasma glucose ³ 7.0 mmol/L, obesity. Quality of life indicators were higher in group 1 than in group 2 on four SF-36 scales: bodily pain (68.1 ± 5.1 and 36.8 ± 2.0; p < 0.001), general health (51.1 ± 2.5 and 38.0 ± 1.7 points; p < 0.001), social functioning (74.7 ± 3.0 and 64.5 ± 2.2 points; p = 0.007), role emotional functioning (28.2 ± 5.2 and 12.5 ± 3.1 points; p = 0.007) and in the general domain “physical component of health” (40.2 ± 1.0 and 33.6 ± 0.8 points; p < 0.001). In group 1 with HDL hypocholesterolemia compared with its absence, the indicators of role emotional functioning (22.2 ± 5.1 and 51.9 ± 13.7 points; p = 0.020) were lower, with arterial hypertension compared with its absence — role physical functioning (5.0 ± 4.0 and 25.5 ± 7.5 points; p = 0.036) and role emotional functioning (16.0 ± 5.1 and 43.3 ± 8.8 points; p = 0.007) were lower.

Conclusions. In patients with PC arterial hypertension was more common and the levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C were lower than in patients with acute or exacerbated chronic pancreatitis. The chance of having PC is directly associated with HDL hypocholesterolemia, with arterial hypertension, inversely — with hypercholesterolemia, and is not associated with age, fasting plasma glucose ³ 7 mmol/L, or obesity. In patients with PC, quality of life indicators were higher on four SF-36 scales and on the general domain “physical component of health” than in the group with acute or exacerbated chronic pancreatitis. In patients with PC metabolic factors significantly worsened self-assessment of quality of life in terms of role functioning; in patients with acute or exacerbated chronic pancreatitis there was no such association.

Decreased HDL-C Levels as a Predictor of Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is reported as a biomarker of systemic inflammation and multi-organ failure (MOF), which has been rarely investigated in acute pancreatitis (AP), a frequent condition in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to study the predictive capacity of the decrease in HDL-C to the progression of MOF in AP in the ED; analyzing 114 patients with AP for one year in a longitudinal and prospective study, AP severity was obtained by the Atlanta classification, in relation to modified Marshall and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, and clinical and laboratory parameters in a 48 h hospital stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and define optimal cut-off points. It was found that AP was classified as severe in 24.5%, mainly for biliary etiology (78.9%) and female sex (73.6%). As a biomarker, HDL-C decreased from 31.6 to 29.5 mg/dL in a 48 h stay (p < 0.001), correlating negatively with the increase in severity index > 2 and the modified Marshall (p < 0.032) and BISAP (p < 0.009) scores, finding an area under the ROC curve with a predictive capacity of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.614-0.898; p < 0.004) and a cut-off point of 28.5 mg/dL (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 78%), demonstrating that the decrease in HDL-C levels serves as a useful indicator with a predictive capacity for MOF in mild to severe AP, during a 48 h hospital stay in the ED.

Predictive value of serum apolipoprotein A-I in the organ failure of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Organ failure (OF) largely governs the outcomes and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but there is a lack of optimal prognostic biomarker for OF. This study is designed to investigate whether the serum apolipoprotein A-I (Apo A-I) level can predict OF in patients with AP.

METHODS

A total of 424 patients with AP were reviewed in the study, and we finally got 228 patients eligible for analysis. Patients were divided into two groups based on serum Apo A-I level. Demographic information and clinical materials were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was the occurrence of OF. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were conducted to analyze the relationship between Apo A-I and OF. Additionally, we used receiver operating characteristic analysis to clarify the predictive value of serum Apo A-I level for OF and mortality.

RESULTS

Ninety-two patients and 136 patients were included in Apo A-I low and non-low groups, respectively. The occurrence of OF was significantly different in the two groups (35.9 vs. 9.6%, p < 0.001). Moreover, serum Apo A-I level markedly decreased across disease severity based on the 2012 Revised Atlanta Classification of AP. The decrease of serum apolipoprotein A-I was an independent risk factor for organ failure (OR: 6.216, 95% CI: 2.610, 14.806, p < 0.001). The area under the curve of serum Apo A-I was 0.828 and 0.889 for OF and mortality of AP, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum Apo A-I level in the early stage of the disease has a high predictive value for OF of AP.

Lipid metabolism for predicting the recurrence of hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis

Rationale and objectives

To investigate the predictive value of lipid metabolism in predicting the recurrence of hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP).

Materials and methods

A total of 892 patients were admitted to our hospital for acute pancreatitis (AP) from January 2017 to December 2020, of whom 198 diagnosed with HTG-AP were enrolled in this retrospective study. Demographic information, length of stay, smoking index, alcohol abuse, necrosis, severity, baseline lipid metabolism and other blood biochemical indicators were recorded. The risk factors of recurrence were evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk analyses, and the cumulative recurrence-free survival rate of patients were calculated using Kaplan Meier method and the differences between groups were compared using the log-rank test.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that triglyceride (hazard ratio, 2.421; 95% CI, 1.152-5.076; P = 0.020), non high-density lipoprotein (hazard ratio, 4.630; 95% CI, 1.692-12.658; P = 0.003) and apolipoprotein A1 (hazard ratio, 1.735; 95% CI, 1.093-2.754; P = 0.019) were important predictors for recurrence of HTG-AP. Subsequently, patients were divided into four groups according to the cut off values of triglyceride, non high-density lipoprotein and apolipoprotein A1. It was found that the cumulative recurrence-free survival rate of patients in highest-risk group or high-risk group was significantly lower than that of medium-risk group (P < 0.001, P = 0.003) or low risk group (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Serum triglycerides, non high-density lipoprotein and apolipoprotein A1 are independent predictors of recurrence in HTG-AP patients, which can provide reference for individualized treatment and prevention of recurrence in HTG-AP patients.

Temporal Proteomic and Lipidomic Profiles of Cerulein-Induced Acute Pancreatitis Reveal Novel Insights for Metabolic Alterations in the Disease Pathogenesis

The pathophysiological mechanisms of acute pancreatitis (AP) are complex and have remained a mystery to date, but metabolism is gradually recognized as an important driver of AP onset and development. We used a cerulein-induced AP mouse model to conduct liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)-based time-course proteomics and lipidomics in order to better understand the underlying metabolic alterations linked with AP. Results showed that a series of significant changes in proteins over time with a boost in expression were enriched in lipase activity, lipoprotein, and lipids absorption and transport regulation. Furthermore, 16 proteins associated with lipid metabolism and signaling pathways together with the whole lipid species changing profile led to the vital identification of changing law in glycerides, phosphoglycerides, and free fatty acids. In addition to lipid metabolism and regulation-associated proteins, several digestive enzymes and adaptive anti-trypsin, stress response, and energy metabolism-related proteins showed an increment in abundance. Notably, central carbon and branched chain amino acid metabolism were enhanced during 0-24 h from the first cerulein stimulation. Taken together, this integrated proteomics and lipidomics revealed a novel metabolic insight into metabolites transforming rules that might be relevant to their function and drug targets investigation. (Created with Biorender.com.).

A novel clinical prediction model of severity based on red cell distribution width, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and intra-abdominal pressure in acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with a high risk of death is extremely harmful to mother and fetus. There are few models specifically designed to assess the severity of APIP. Our study aimed to establish a clinical model for early prediction of severity of APIP.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a total of 188 patients with APIP was enrolled. The hematological indicators, IAP (intra-abdominal pressure) and clinical data were obtained for statistical analysis and prediction model construction.

RESULTS

According to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found that red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and Intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) are prediction indexes of the severity in APIP (p-value < 0.05). Our novel clinical prediction model was created by based on the above three risk factors and showed superior predictive power in primary cohort (AUC = 0.895) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.863). A nomogram for severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (SAPIP) was created based on the three indicators. The nomogram was well-calibrated.

CONCLUSION

RDW, NLR and IAP were the independent risk factors of APIP. Our clinical prediction model of severity in APIP based on RDW, NLR and IAP with predictive evaluation is accurate and effective.

Causal associations between modifiable risk factors and pancreatitis: A comprehensive Mendelian randomization study

Background

The pathogenesis of pancreatitis involves diverse environmental risk factors, some of which have not yet been clearly elucidated. This study systematically investigated the causal effects of genetically predicted modifiable risk factors on pancreatitis using the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.

Methods

Genetic variants associated with 30 exposure factors were obtained from genome-wide association studies. Summary-level statistical data for acute pancreatitis (AP), chronic pancreatitis (CP), alcohol-induced AP (AAP) and alcohol-induced CP (ACP) were obtained from FinnGen consortia. Univariable and multivariable MR analyses were performed to identify causal risk factors for pancreatitis.

Results

Genetic predisposition to smoking (OR = 1.314, P = 0.021), cholelithiasis (OR = 1.365, P = 1.307E-19) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (OR = 1.063, P = 0.008) as well as higher triglycerides (OR = 1.189, P = 0.016), body mass index (BMI) (OR = 1.335, P = 3.077E-04), whole body fat mass (OR = 1.291, P = 0.004) and waist circumference (OR = 1.466, P = 0.011) were associated with increased risk of AP. The effect of obesity traits on AP was attenuated after correcting for cholelithiasis. Genetically-driven smoking (OR = 1.595, P = 0.005), alcohol consumption (OR = 3.142, P = 0.020), cholelithiasis (OR = 1.180, P = 0.001), autoimmune diseases (OR = 1.123, P = 0.008), IBD (OR = 1.066, P = 0.042), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.121, P = 0.029), and higher serum calcium (OR = 1.933, P = 0.018), triglycerides (OR = 1.222, P = 0.021) and waist-to-hip ratio (OR = 1.632, P = 0.023) increased the risk of CP. Cholelithiasis, triglycerides and the waist-to-hip ratio remained significant predictors in the multivariable MR. Genetically predicted alcohol drinking was associated with increased risk of AAP (OR = 15.045, P = 0.001) and ACP (OR = 6.042, P = 0.014). After adjustment of alcohol drinking, genetic liability to IBD had a similar significant causal effect on AAP (OR = 1.137, P = 0.049), while testosterone (OR = 0.270, P = 0.002) a triglyceride (OR = 1.610, P = 0.001) and hip circumference (OR = 0.648, P = 0.040) were significantly associated with ACP. Genetically predicted higher education and household income levels could lower the risk of pancreatitis.

Conclusions

This MR study provides evidence of complex causal associations between modifiable risk factors and pancreatitis. These findings provide new insights into potential therapeutic and prevention strategies.

Relationship between Cholesterol-Related Lipids and Severe Acute Pancreatitis: From Bench to Bedside

It is well known that hypercholesterolemia in the body has pro-inflammatory effects through the formation of inflammasomes and augmentation of TLR (Toll-like receptor) signaling, which gives rise to cardiovascular disease and neurodegenerative diseases. However, the interaction between cholesterol-related lipids and acute pancreatitis (AP) has not yet been summarized before. This hinders the consensus on the existence and clinical importance of cholesterol-associated AP. This review focuses on the possible interaction between AP and cholesterol-related lipids, which include total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and apolipoprotein (Apo) A1, from the bench to the bedside. With a higher serum level of total cholesterol, LDL-C is associated with the severity of AP, while the persistent inflammation of AP is allied with a decrease in serum levels of cholesterol-related lipids. Therefore, an interaction between cholesterol-related lipids and AP is postulated. Cholesterol-related lipids should be recommended as risk factors and early predictors for measuring the severity of AP. Cholesterol-lowering drugs may play a role in the treatment and prevention of AP with hypercholesterolemia.

Development and validation of a risk prediction score for the severity of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis in Chinese patients

BACKGROUND

The frequency of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (AHTGP) is increasing worldwide. AHTGP may be associated with a more severe clinical course and greater mortality than pancreatitis caused by other causes. Early identification of patients with severe inclination is essential for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. Therefore, we first developed and validated a risk prediction score for the severity of AHTGP in Chinese patients.

AIM

To develop and validate a risk prediction score for the severity of AHTGP in Chinese patients.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study including 243 patients with AHTGP. Patients were randomly divided into a development cohort (n = 170) and a validation cohort (n = 73). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression were used to screen 42 potential predictive variables to construct a risk score for the severity of AHTGP. We evaluated the performance of the nomogram and compared it with existing scoring systems. Last, we used the best cutoff value (88.16) for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to determine the risk stratification classification.

RESULTS

Age, the reduction in apolipoprotein A1 and the presence of pleural effusion were independent risk factors for SAP and were used to construct the nomogram (risk prediction score referred to as AAP). The concordance index of the nomogram in the development and validation groups was 0.930 and 0.928, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrate excellent agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities in SAP patients. The area under the curve of the nomogram (0.929) was better than those of the Bedside Index of Severity in AP (BISAP), Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), and early achievable severity index scores (0.852, 0.825, 0.807, 0.831 and 0.807, respectively). In comparison with these scores, the integrated discrimination improvement and decision curve analysis showed improved accuracy in predicting SAP and better net benefits for clinical decisions. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine risk stratification classification for AHTGP by dividing patients into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the best cutoff value (88.16). The high-risk group (> 88.16) was closely related to the appearance of local and systemic complications, Ranson score ≥ 3, BISAP score ≥ 3, MCTSI score ≥ 4, APACHE II score ≥ 8, C-reactive protein level ≥ 190, and length of hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram could help identify AHTGP patients who are likely to develop SAP at an early stage, which is of great value in guiding clinical decisions.

Clinical utility of the pancreatitis activity scoring system in severe acute pancreatitis

Objective: To analyze clinical utility of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) in prediction of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis, and in-hospital mortality in patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: The study included a total of 140 patients with MSAP and SAP admitted to the ICU of Shandong Provincial Hospital from 2015 to 2021. The general information, biochemical indexes and PASS scores of patients at ICU admission time were collected. Independent risk factors of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis and in-hospital mortality were analyzed by binary logistic regression. Through receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the predictive ability of lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen, PASS, and PASS in combination with urea nitrogen for the three outcomes was compared. The best cut-off value was determined.

Results: Binary logistic regression showed that PASS might be an independent risk factor for patients with persistent organ failure (odds ratio [OR]: 1.027, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.014–1.039), poor prognosis (OR: 1.008, 95% CI: 1.001–1.014), and in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.009, 95% CI: 1.000–1.019). PASS also had a good predictive ability for persistent organ failure (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.839, 95% CI: 0.769–0.910) and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.780, 95% CI: 0.669–0.891), which was significantly superior to lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen and Ranson score. PASS (AUC = 0.756, 95% CI: 0.675–0.837) was second only to urea nitrogen (AUC = 0.768, 95% CI: 0.686–0.850) in the prediction of poor prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive power of urea nitrogen in combination with PASS was better than that of each factor for persistent organ failure (AUC = 0.849, 95% CI: 0.779–0.920), poor prognosis (AUC = 0.801, 95% CI: 0.726–0.876), and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.796, 95% CI: 0.697–0.894).

Conclusion: PASS was closely correlated with the prognosis of patients with MSAP and SAP. This scoring system may be used as a common clinical index to measure the activity of acute pancreatitis and evaluate disease prognosis.

Development and Evaluation of a Nomogram to Predict the Eventual Severity of the First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this research was to establish a nomogram for early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A total of 1860 AP patients from 2013 to 2020 were included in this study. According to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification, patients were divided into nonsevere AP group and severe AP (SAP) group. The baseline characteristics and first laboratory indicators after admission between the 2 groups were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in training set. R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram and further verified in validation set.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training set showed red blood cell distribution width, d -dimer, apolipoprotein A1, and albumin were independent factors for SAP. A predictive nomogram was accordingly established based on the 4 indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index of 0.940 (95% confidence interval, 0.922-0.958) and high external validation concordance index of 0.943 (95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.966). The calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis all showed that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram may be an effective clinical tool for predicting the first episode of SAP.

Development and validation of a prediction model for moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The severity of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) is correlated with higher risks of maternal and fetal death.

AIM

To develop a nomogram that could predict moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (MSIP).

METHODS

Patients with APIP admitted to West China Hospital between January 2012 and December 2018 were included in this study. They were divided into mild acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (MAIP) and MSIP. Characteristic parameters and laboratory results were collected. The training set and test set were randomly divided at a ratio of 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select potential prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed by logistic regression. A random forest model was used to validate the stability of the prediction factors. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model’s predictive performance.

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were included in this study. A total of 134 patients (70.5%) and 56 patients (29.5%) were classified as having MAIP and MSIP, respectively. Four independent predictors (lactate dehydrogenase, triglyceride, cholesterol, and albumin levels) were identified for MSIP. A nomogram prediction model based on these factors was established. The model had areas under the curve of 0.865 and 0.853 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the nomogram has a good consistency.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram including lactate dehydrogenase, triglyceride, cholesterol, and albumin levels as independent predictors was built with good performance for MSIP prediction.

Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95%CI: 0.80-0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.

Association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I and severe acute pancreatitis: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Evidence is limited concerning the association between serum concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (APO A-I) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). This study was designed to explore whether HDL-C and APO A-I were independently correlated to SAP after adjusting for covariates.

METHODS

There were 1127 patients with acute pancreatitis who were recruited from a tertiary teaching hospital in Wenzhou from 1 January 2018 to 30 April 2020. The independent variables were baseline levels of HDL-C, and APO A-I collected within 24 h after admission. The dependent variable was the occurrence of SAP during hospitalization. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were conducted to analyze the relationship between HDL-C and APO A-I and SAP. The receiver operating characteristic curve was applied to analyze the prediction power of lipid parameters and C-reactive protein for SAP.

RESULTS

The incidence of SAP was 11.5% among the 678 patients included in the final analysis. The serum levels of APO A-I and HDL-C were negatively related to SAP after adjusting for confounders with an odds ratio of 0.24 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06-0.95] and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.04-0.56), respectively. APO A-I (area under the curve = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.63-0.76) and HDL-C (area under the curve = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.66-0.79) showed higher predictive value for SAP compared with other lipid parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased serum concentrations of HDL-C and APO A-I are associated with SAP after adjusting for covariates.

The Effect of Admission Serum Triglyceride Level on the Prediction of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

Purpose

Previous studies indicated that the serum triglyceride level in patients with acute pancreatitis positively correlated with the severity of the disease among the general population. Despite the physiological hypertriglyceridemia in pregnant women, there are no reports on the relationship between serum triglyceride level and the severity of acute pancreatitis in pregnant (APIP) women. This study explores the relationship between serum triglyceride levels and the severity of APIP.

Patients and Methods

Clinical information of APIP patients admitted to the Shengjing Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University was gathered from January 2012 to December 2020 to conduct retrospective research. The participating patients were divided into mild, moderately severe, and severe acute pancreatitis. The clinical outcomes of patients with different serum triglyceride levels (0–2.3 mmol/L, 2.23–5.65 mmol/L, 5.65–11.2 mmol/l, ≥11.2 mmol/L) were analyzed by performing ordinal logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to calculate the threshold value of serum triglyceride concentration that can effectively predict the occurrence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Results

Hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) occurred in 47% of APIP patients within the group, with a high prevalence among the Han population. In the present study, the serum triglyceride concentration correlated positively with the severity of APIP (r=0.403, P < 0.05). The adjusted logistic model demonstrated that relative to nominal triglyceride levels, the OR value of SAP were 1.036 (95% CI: 0.401–2.677), 3.429 (95% CI: 1.269–9265), 8.329 (95% CI: 3.713–18.682) with triglyceride at the level of 2.23–5.65 mmol/L, 5.65–11.2 mmol/l and ≥11.2 mmol/L. In APIP patients, a triglyceride concentration of 10.7mmol/L or more upon admission was a predictive value for the occurrence of SAP, with a sensitivity of 0.72 and a specificity of 0.65, AUC: 0.708 (95% CI: 0.620–0.796).

Conclusion

As the serum triglyceride level upon admission increased, the frequency of local and systemic complications increased significantly.

The association of parameters of body composition and laboratory markers with the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Hypertriglyceridemia has arisen as the third leading cause of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed at exploring the association between the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis (HTGP) and computed tomography (CT)-based body composition parameters and laboratory markers.

METHODS

Laboratory and clinical parameters were collected from 242 patients with HTGP between 2017 and 2020. Severity of HTGP was evaluated by original or modified CT severity index. Body composition parameters such as area and radiodensity of muscle, subcutaneous adipose tissue and visceral adipose tissue were calculated by CT at the level of third lumbar vertebra. Parameters were compared between mild and moderately severe to severe HTGP. Uni-variate and multi-variate Logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the risk factors of the severity of HTGP.

RESULTS

Seventy patients (28.9%) presented with mild HTGP. Body mass index, waist circumference and all CT-based body composition parameters differed between male and female patients. None was associated with the severity of HTGP, neither in males nor in females. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that areas under the curves of apolipoprotein A-I and albumin to predict the severity of HTGP were 0.786 and 0.759, respectively (all P < 0.001). Uni-variate and further multi-variate Logistic regression analysis confirmed that low serum albumin (< 35 g/L, P = 0.004, OR = 3.362, 95%CI = 1.492-8.823) and apolipoprotein A-I (< 1.1 g/L, P < 0.001, OR = 5.126, 95%CI = 2.348-11.195), as well as high C-reactive protein (> 90 mg/L, P = 0.005, OR = 3.061, 95%CI = 1.407-6.659) and lipase (P = 0.033, OR = 2.283, 95%CI = 1.070-4.873) were risk factors of moderately severe to severe HTGP. Levels of albumin, apolipoprotein A-I, C-reactive protein and lipase were also associated with the length of hospital stay (all P < 0.05). Besides, low serum albumin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high radiodensity of subcutaneous adipose tissue were significant risk factors of pancreatic necrosis in patients with HTGP (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Low serum albumin and apolipoprotein A-I, and high C-reactive protein and lipase upon admission were associated with a more severe type of HTGP and longer hospital stay for these patients. Albumin and apolipoprotein A-I may serve as novel biomarkers for the severity of HTGP. However, none of the body composition parameters was associated with the severity of HTGP.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor is an early marker of severe acute pancreatitis based on the revised Atlanta classification

BACKGROUND

Various serum markers for early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have been studied. Serum macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) was reported to be correlated with severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the 1992 Atlanta classification. However, MIF has never been proven to be predictive of disease severity based on the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). The potential predictive value of MIF needs to be further validated.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with AP within 48 h after symptom onset and 10 healthy control volunteers were enrolled prospectively. Serum MIF levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The predictive value of MIF, clinical scores and other serum markers were determined.

RESULTS

Among 143 patients with AP, there were 52 (36.4%), 65 (45.5%) and 26 (18.1%) with mild, moderate and severe disease based on the RAC respectively. Compared with healthy volunteers, serum levels of MIF were significantly higher in AP patients, especially those with SAP (P < 0.001). Multivariate regression analysis indicated that increased serum MIF (cut-off 2.30 ng/ml, OR = 3.16, P = 0.008), IL-6 (cut-off 46.8 pg/ml, OR = 1.21, P = 0.043), APACHE II score (cut-off 7.5, OR = 2.57, P = 0.011) and BISAP score (cut-off 1.5, OR = 1.01, P = 0.038) were independent risk factors for predicting SAP (P < 0.05). By using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), MIF (AUC 0.950) demonstrated more excellent discriminative power for predicting SAP than APACHE II (AUC 0.899), BISAP (AUC 0.886), and IL-6 (AUC 0.826).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum MIF is a valuable early marker for predicting the severity of AP based on the RAC.

Total cholesterol concentration predicts the effect of plasmapheresis on hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis: a retrospective case-control study

Background

What kind of patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) might benefit from plasmapheresis (PP) remains unknown. The objective of this study is to determine the predict function of total cholesterol (TC) on the Triglyceride (TG)-lowing effect in patients on either non-PP or PP therapy.

Methods

Patients were categorized into high total cholesterol (HTC)/low total cholesterol (LTC) groups based on TC level of 12.4 mmol/L. The primary outcome was TG reduction to below 500 mg/dL within 48 h. Linear mixed-effect model and logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of TC level and TG-lowing efficacy in different therapy groups.

Results

Compared with LTC group, patients with HTC showed more severe imaging manifestations (p < 0.001) and higher APACH II scores (p = 0.036). Deaths occurred only in HTC groups. Significant interaction of time sequence with the 2 TGs-lowing therapy groups on TG level was only found in HTC group (p < 0.001). In patients with elevated TC level, primary outcome occurred in 66.67% of patients in the PP group, and 27.91% in the non-PP group. After adjustment for age, gender, CT grade and APACH II score, the odd ratio remain significant (OR 5.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.84–16.25, p = 0.002). Furthermore, in patients with lower TC level, no significant difference was found in primary outcome between PP group and non-PP group (81.25% versus 62.30%, adjusted OR 2.05; 95% CI 0.45–9.40; p = 0.353).

Conclusions

TC could be a potential biomarker to predict the effects of TG-lowing therapy in patients with HLAP.

Association between Timing of Surgical Intervention and Mortality in 15,813 Acute Pancreatitis

Objective

In order to find the quantitative relationship between timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing pancreatitis.

Methods

The generalized additive model was applied to quantitate the relationship between surgical time (from the onset of acute pancreatitis to first surgical intervention) and risk of death adjusted for demographic characteristics, infection, organ failure, and important lab indicators extracted from the Electronic Medical Record of West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

Results

We analyzed 1,176 inpatients who had pancreatic drainage, pancreatic debridement, or pancreatectomy experience of 15,813 acute pancreatitis retrospectively. It showed that when surgical time was either modelled alone or adjusted for infection or organ failure, an L-shaped relationship between surgical time and risk of death was presented. When surgical time was within 32.60 days, the risk of death was greater than 50%.

Conclusion

There is an L-shaped relationship between timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing pancreatitis.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio in early assessment of disease severity and outcome in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the ICU

BACKGROUND

Patients with acute pancreatitis usually exhibit dyslipidemia and oxidative stress. However, the significance of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level and the HDL-C/LDL-C ratio (H/L ratio) as markers for disease progression remain unknown.

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of HDL-C levels, LDL-C levels and the H/L ratio as markers of disease progression in patients admitted to the intensive cate unit with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary critical care center in China. Plasma HDL-C and LDL-C levels were measured in 166 patients with acute pancreatitis. The associations between HDL-C, LDL-C, H/L ratio, as well as other inflammatory index and mortality, were analyzed. Multivariate cox analysis based on two models was used to determine the independent prognostic factor. Predictive ability of in-hospital mortality for variables was determined using the receiver operating characteristics curves.

RESULTS

Significantly higher H/L ratios at admission were observed in patients with acute pancreatitis who died compared with survivors (0.93 vs. 0.64, p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve for H/L ratio-based prediction of mortality was 0.658. When clinical confounders were included in multivariable cox regression analysis, the association was preserved (Model A HR = 1.587, p = 0.011; Model B HR = 1.332, p = 0.032). The mortality risk in different groups defined by an H/L ratio cutoff value was significantly different, based on survival curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

The H/L ratio at the time of admission to the ICU appears to be a biomarker of disease progression in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Serum apolipoprotein B-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio is independently associated with disease severity in patients with acute pancreatitis

Early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is critical for clinical decision-making. The apolipoprotein B-to-apolipoprotein A1 ratio (ApoB/A1 ratio) reflects the balance between pro-inflammation and anti-inflammation in vivo. This study investigated the association between serum ApoB/A1 ratio at admission and acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. A total of 375 patients with first attack of AP were retrospectively recruited from January 2014 to December 2017. The severity of AP was assessed at admission based on the 2012 revised Atlanta Classification. Serum lipids levels were tested on the first 24 h of hospitalization, of which the correlations with clinical features or scoring systems were also measured. The ApoB/A1 ratio markedly increased across disease severity of AP. The ApoB/A1 ratio, expressed as both quartile and continuous variables, was significantly associated with a high risk of SAP, even after adjustment for other conventional SAP risk factors. The ApoB/A1 ratio positively correlated with the revised 2012 Atlanta Classification, Ranson score, Bedside Index for Severity in AP score, Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score for AP severity. The optimal cut-off value of ApoB/A1 ratio for detecting SAP was 0.88, with a sensitivity of 83.08% and a specificity of 69.03%. Serum ApoB/A1 ratio at admission is closely correlated with disease severity in patients with AP and can serve as a reliable indicator for SAP in clinical setting.

Early predictors of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis

The present study aimed to investigate early risk factors for hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) in order to open up novel routes for its prevention and treatment. Demographics, laboratory data obtained within 48 h, enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging data and the modified CT severity index (MCTSI) for 111 patients with HLAP who were assessed at Ordos Central Hospital (Ordos, China) between January 2015 and October 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Of these, 17 patients progressed to infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) and 14 patients progressed to organ failure (OF), the occurrence of which were the study outcomes. The patients were divided into pairs groups: IPN and non-IPN, as well as OF and non-OF, and differences between the groups were determined regarding various clinicopathological parameters. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify parameters associated with the risk of progression to IPN or OP. On univariate analysis, the following parameters were deemed as being significantly associated with the risk of IPN: Serum calcium ions, C-reactive protein (CRP), extent of necrosis, procalcitonin (PTC) and the MCTSI. Furthermore, calcium ions, red cell distribution width (RDW), extent of necrosis and the MCTSI were significantly associated with the risk of OF on univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for these parameters then indicated that CRP (P=0.014), RDW (P=0.025) and the extent of necrosis (P=0.022) were significant and independent predictors of progression; thus, these are early risk factors for patients with HLAP. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to evaluate the predictive value of these factors, and the area under the curve for the three parameters was 0.863 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.646-0.886], 0.727 (95% CI, 0.651-0.803) and 0.833 (95% CI, 0.739-0.936), respectively. Therefore, CRP, RDW and the extent of necrosis are early predictive indexes for the risk of progression in HLAP.