Recent Decline in the Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

Differences in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Trends Across US Census Divisions, 2001 to 2021

Background/Objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer diagnoses and deaths in the United States. This study serves as an update on secular trends in national HCC incidence rates while exploring potential geographic and racial/ethnic differences across all nine US census divisions. Methods: We analyzed HCC incidence data reported to the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database from 2001 to 2021 (excluding 2020 data, based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's cautionary recommendations for COVID-19 pandemic data usage for trend analysis). We performed trend analyses of age-adjusted incidence rates in the US overall, by census divisions, and then stratified by race/ethnicity, using the National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program. Results: Between 2001 and 2021, HCC incidence rates increased nationally, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 2.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.32-2.72); however, the rate decreased (annual percentage change (APC) -3.33 (95% CI: -4.78--1.96) in recent years from 2018 to 2021. Division 1 had the greatest decrease (APC -6.46 (95% CI: -9.62--3.96) from 2017 to 2021, while rates leveled in Division 6 (East South Central) and Division 7 (West South Central). HCC trends decreased substantially for non-Hispanic Black and Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander groups in almost all divisions in recent years, but trends were stable, decreased, or increased for other racial/ethnic populations. Conclusions: Despite declining national HCC incidence rates, these trends were not uniform across racial/ethnic groups or US census divisions. Race-specific interventions are needed to reduce disparities in HCC incidence in all US census divisions.

Integrative multi-omics characterization of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hispanic patients

BACKGROUND

The incidence and mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma among Hispanic individuals in the United States are much higher than in non-Hispanic White people. We conducted multi-omics analyses to elucidate molecular alterations in hepatocellular carcinoma among Hispanic patients.

METHODS

Paired tumor and adjacent nontumor samples were collected from 31 Hispanic hepatocellular carcinomas in South Texas for genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic profiling. Serum lipids were profiled in 40 Hispanic and non-Hispanic patients with or without clinically diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

Exome sequencing revealed high mutation frequencies of AXIN2 and CTNNB1 in South Texas Hispanic hepatocellular carcinoma patients, suggesting a predominant activation of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway. TERT promoter mutations were also statistically significantly more frequent in the Hispanic cohort (Fisher exact test, P < .05). Cell cycles and liver function were positively and negatively enriched, respectively, with gene set enrichment analysis. Gene sets representing specific liver metabolic pathways were associated with dysregulation of corresponding metabolites. Negative enrichment of liver adipogenesis and lipid metabolism corroborated with a significant reduction in most lipids in serum samples of hepatocellular carcinoma patients (paired t test, P < .0001). Two hepatocellular carcinoma subtypes from our Hispanic cohort were identified and validated with the Cancer Genome Atlas liver cancer cohort. Patients with better overall survival showed higher activity of immune and angiogenesis signatures and lower activity of liver function-related gene signatures. They also had higher levels of immune checkpoint and immune exhaustion markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed specific molecular features of Hispanic hepatocellular carcinoma and potential biomarkers for therapeutic management. It provides a unique resource for studying Hispanic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Incidence and survival of pediatric and adult hepatocellular carcinoma, United States, 2001-2020

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma accounts for approximately 80 % of liver neoplasms. Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma ranks as the third most lethal cancer, with the number of deaths expected to further increase by 2040. In adults, disparities in incidence and survival are well described while pediatric epidemiology is not well characterized. We describe incidence and survival for pediatric (ages 0-19 years) hepatocellular carcinoma cases and compare these measures to adults (ages ≥ 20 years) diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

We assessed incidence data from the US Cancer Statistics database during 2003-2020 and 5-year survival from the National Program of Cancer Registries during 2001-2019. Incidence trends were determined by annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) using joinpoint regression. Five-year survival was evaluated by relative survival, and all-cause survival was estimated using multivariate Cox modeling. Corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for all analyses.

RESULTS

Incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 0.056 (95 %CI:0.052-0.060) for pediatric cases and 7.793 (7.767-7.819) for adults. Incidence was stable in the pediatric population (0.3 AAPC, - 1.1 to 1.7). In contrast, after periods of increase, incidence declined in adults after 2015 (-1.5 APC). Relative survival increased over time for both pediatric and adult ages and was higher for children and adolescents (46.4 %, 95 %CI:42.4-50.3) than adults (20.7 %, 95 %CI:20.5-20.9). Regression modeling showed that non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity was associated with higher risk of death in children and adolescents (1.48, 95 %CI:1.07-2.05) and adults (1.11, 95 %CI:1.09-1.12) compared to non-Hispanic white race and ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2003 and 2020 in the United States, pediatric incidence was stable while incidence in adults began to decline after 2015. Survival was higher across all stages for children and adolescents compared to adults. Non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity showed a higher risk of death for both age groups. Further studies could explore the factors that influence these outcome disparities.

PNPLA3, Obesity, and Heavy Alcohol Use in Cirrhosis Patients May Exert a Synergistic Increase Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with cirrhosis, continued heavy alcohol consumption and obesity may increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined whether germline susceptibility to hepatic steatosis not only independently predisposes to HCC but may also act synergistically with other risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1911 patients in 2 multicenter prospective cohort studies in the United States. We classified patients according to alcohol consumption (current heavy vs not current heavy), obesity (body mass index ≥30 vs <30 kg/m2), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (carrier of at least one G risk allele vs noncarrier). We examined the independent and joint effects of these risk factors on risk of developing HCC using Cox regression with competing risks.

RESULTS

Mean age was 59.6 years, 64.3% were male, 28.7% were Hispanic, 18.3% were non-Hispanic Black, 50.9% were obese, 6.2% had current heavy alcohol consumption, and 58.4% harbored at least 1 PNPLA3 G-allele. One hundred sixteen patients developed HCC. Compared with PNPLA3 noncarriers without heavy alcohol consumption, HCC risk was 2.65-fold higher (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.86) for carriers who had current heavy alcohol consumption. Compared with noncarrier patients without obesity, HCC risk was higher (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.33-4.31) for carrier patients who were obese. PNPLA3 and alcohol consumption effect was stronger among patients with viral etiology of cirrhosis (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.31-8.90). PNPLA3 improved 1-year risk prediction for HCC when added to a clinical risk model.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNPLA3 variant may help refine risk stratification for HCC in patients with cirrhosis with heavy alcohol consumption or obesity who may need specific preventive measures.

Incidence and survival of pediatric and adult hepatocellular carcinoma, United States, 2001-2020

Importance

Hepatocellular carcinoma accounts for approximately 80% of liver neoplasms. Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma ranks as the third most lethal cancer, with the number of deaths expected to further increase by 2040. In adults, disparities in incidence and survival are well described while pediatric epidemiology is not well characterized.

Objective

To describe incidence and survival for pediatric (ages 0-19 years) hepatocellular carcinoma cases and compare these measures to adults (ages ≥20 years) diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma. We evaluated demographic factors and clinical characteristics that influence incidence and outcomes.

Design

Population-based cohort study.

Setting

Incidence data from the US Cancer Statistics database from 2003 to 2020 and 5-year relative survival from the National Program of Cancer Registries from 2001 to 2019, covering 97% and 83% of the US population, respectively.

Participants

355,349 US Cancer Statistics and 257,406 the National Program of Cancer Registries patients were identified using ICD-O-3 C22.0 and 8170-5 codes.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) using joinpoint regression. Five-year relative survival. All-cause survival estimated using multivariate Cox modeling. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

Results

Incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 0.056 (95%CI:0.052-0.060) for pediatric cases and 7.793 (7.767-7.819) for adults. Incidence was stable in the pediatric population (0.3 AAPC, -1.1-1.7). In contrast, after periods of increase, incidence declined in adults after 2015 (-1.5 APC). Relative survival increased over time for both pediatric and adult ages and was higher for children and adolescents (46.4%, 95%CI:42.4-50.3) than adults (20.7%, 95%CI:20.5-20.9) overall and when stratified by stage. Regression modeling showed that non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity was associated with higher risk of death in children and adolescents (1.48, 95%CI:1.07-2.05) and adults (1.11, 95%CI:1.09-1.12) compared to non-Hispanic white race and ethnicity.

Conclusions and Relevance

Between 2003 and 2020 in the United States, pediatric incidence was stable while incidence in adults began to decline after 2015. Survival was higher across all stages for children and adolescents compared to adults. Non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity showed a higher risk of death for both age groups. Further studies could explore the factors that influence these outcome disparities.