Early prediction of acute respiratory distress syndrome complicated by acute pancreatitis based on four machine learning models

Predictive Modeling of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Using Machine Learning: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a critical condition commonly encountered in the intensive care unit (ICU), characterized by a high incidence and substantial mortality rate. Early detection and accurate prediction of ARDS can significantly improve patient outcomes. While machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used for ARDS prediction, there is a lack of consensus on the most effective model or methodology. This study is the first to systematically evaluate the performance of ARDS prediction models based on multiple quantitative data sources. We compare the effectiveness of ML models via a meta-analysis, revealing factors affecting performance and suggesting strategies to enhance generalization and prediction accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the performance of existing ARDS prediction models through a systematic review and meta-analysis, using metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and other relevant indicators. The findings will provide evidence-based insights to support the development of more accurate and effective ARDS prediction tools.

METHODS

We performed a search across 6 electronic databases for studies developing ML predictive models for ARDS, with a cutoff date of December 29, 2024. The risk of bias in these models was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Meta-analyses and investigations into heterogeneity were carried out using Meta-DiSc software (version 1.4), developed by the Ramón y Cajal Hospital's Clinical Biostatistics team in Madrid, Spain. Furthermore, sensitivity, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were used to explore the sources of heterogeneity more comprehensively.

RESULTS

ML models achieved a pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7407 for ARDS. The additional metrics were as follows: sensitivity was 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.67; P<.001; I²=97.1%), specificity was 0.68 (95% CI 0.67-0.68; P<.001; I²=98.5%), the diagnostic odds ratio was 6.26 (95% CI 4.93-7.94; P<.001; I²=95.3%), the positive likelihood ratio was 2.80 (95% CI 2.46-3.19; P<.001; I²=97.3%), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.51 (95% CI 0.46-0.57; P<.001; I²=93.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study evaluates prediction models constructed using various ML algorithms, with results showing that ML demonstrates high performance in ARDS prediction. However, many of the existing models still have limitations. During model development, it is essential to focus on model quality, including reducing bias risk, designing appropriate sample sizes, conducting external validation, and ensuring model interpretability. Additionally, challenges such as physician trust and the need for prospective validation must also be addressed. Future research should standardize model development, optimize model performance, and explore how to better integrate predictive models into clinical practice to improve ARDS diagnosis and risk stratification.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42024529403; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42024529403.

AI and Machine Learning for Precision Medicine in Acute Pancreatitis: A Narrative Review

Acute pancreatitis (AP) presents a significant clinical challenge due to its wide range of severity, from mild cases to life-threatening complications such as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), necrosis, and multi-organ failure. Traditional scoring systems, such as Ranson and BISAP, offer foundational tools for risk stratification but often lack early precision. This review aims to explore the transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in AP management, focusing on their applications in diagnosis, severity prediction, complication management, and treatment optimization. A comprehensive analysis of recent studies was conducted, highlighting ML models such as XGBoost, neural networks, and multimodal approaches. These models integrate clinical, laboratory, and imaging data, including radiomics features, and are useful in diagnostic and prognostic accuracy in AP. Special attention was given to models addressing SAP, complications like acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome, mortality, and recurrence. AI-based models achieved higher AUC values than traditional models in predicting acute pancreatitis outcomes. XGBoost reached an AUC of 0.93 for early SAP prediction, higher than BISAP (AUC 0.74) and APACHE II (AUC 0.81). PrismSAP, integrating multimodal data, achieved the highest AUC of 0.916. AI models also demonstrated superior accuracy in mortality prediction (AUC 0.975) and ARDS detection (AUC 0.891) AI and ML represent a transformative advance in AP management, facilitating personalized treatment, early risk stratification, and allowing resource utilization to be optimized. By addressing challenges such as model generalizability, ethical considerations, and clinical adoption, AI has the potential to significantly improve patient outcomes and redefine AP care standards globally.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS): from mechanistic insights to therapeutic strategies

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a clinical syndrome of acute hypoxic respiratory failure caused by diffuse lung inflammation and edema. ARDS can be precipitated by intrapulmonary factors or extrapulmonary factors, which can lead to severe hypoxemia. Patients suffering from ARDS have high mortality rates, including a 28-day mortality rate of 34.8% and an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 40.0%. The pathophysiology of ARDS is complex and involves the activation and dysregulation of multiple overlapping and interacting pathways of systemic inflammation and coagulation, including the respiratory system, circulatory system, and immune system. In general, the treatment of inflammatory injuries is a coordinated process that involves the downregulation of proinflammatory pathways and the upregulation of anti-inflammatory pathways. Given the complexity of the underlying disease, treatment needs to be tailored to the problem. Hence, we discuss the pathogenesis and treatment methods of affected organs, including 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related pneumonia, drowning, trauma, blood transfusion, severe acute pancreatitis, and sepsis. This review is intended to provide a new perspective concerning ARDS and offer novel insight into future therapeutic interventions.

A systematic review of machine learning-based prognostic models for acute pancreatitis: Towards improving methods and reporting quality

BACKGROUND

An accurate prognostic tool is essential to aid clinical decision-making (e.g., patient triage) and to advance personalized medicine. However, such a prognostic tool is lacking for acute pancreatitis (AP). Increasingly machine learning (ML) techniques are being used to develop high-performing prognostic models in AP. However, methodologic and reporting quality has received little attention. High-quality reporting and study methodology are critical for model validity, reproducibility, and clinical implementation. In collaboration with content experts in ML methodology, we performed a systematic review critically appraising the quality of methodology and reporting of recently published ML AP prognostic models.

METHODS/FINDINGS

Using a validated search strategy, we identified ML AP studies from the databases MEDLINE and EMBASE published between January 2021 and December 2023. We also searched pre-print servers medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv for pre-prints registered between January 2021 and December 2023. Eligibility criteria included all retrospective or prospective studies that developed or validated new or existing ML models in patients with AP that predicted an outcome following an episode of AP. Meta-analysis was considered if there was homogeneity in the study design and in the type of outcome predicted. For risk of bias (ROB) assessment, we used the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Quality of reporting was assessed using the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model of Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis-Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) statement that defines standards for 27 items that should be reported in publications using ML prognostic models. The search strategy identified 6,480 publications of which 30 met the eligibility criteria. Studies originated from China (22), the United States (4), and other (4). All 30 studies developed a new ML model and none sought to validate an existing ML model, producing a total of 39 new ML models. AP severity (23/39) or mortality (6/39) were the most common outcomes predicted. The mean area under the curve for all models and endpoints was 0.91 (SD 0.08). The ROB was high for at least one domain in all 39 models, particularly for the analysis domain (37/39 models). Steps were not taken to minimize over-optimistic model performance in 27/39 models. Due to heterogeneity in the study design and in how the outcomes were defined and determined, meta-analysis was not performed. Studies reported on only 15/27 items from TRIPOD+AI standards, with only 7/30 justifying sample size and 13/30 assessing data quality. Other reporting deficiencies included omissions regarding human-AI interaction (28/30), handling low-quality or incomplete data in practice (27/30), sharing analytical codes (25/30), study protocols (25/30), and reporting source data (19/30).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant deficiencies in the methodology and reporting of recently published ML based prognostic models in AP patients. These undermine the validity, reproducibility, and implementation of these prognostic models despite their promise of superior predictive accuracy.

REGISTRATION

Research Registry (reviewregistry1727).

Accuracy of artificial intelligence algorithms in predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a serious threat to human life. Hence, early and accurate diagnosis and treatment are crucial for patient survival. This meta-analysis evaluates the accuracy of artificial intelligence in the early diagnosis of ARDS and provides guidance for future research and applications.

METHODS

A search on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, Chinese Biomedical Literature (CBM), and VIP databases was systematically conducted, from their establishment to November 2023, to obtain eligible studies for the analysis and evaluation of the predictive effect of AI on ARDS. The retrieved literature was screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, the quality of the included studies was assessed using QUADAS-2, and the included studies were statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

Among the 2, 996 studies, 33 were included in this meta-analysis, which showed that the pooled sensitivity of AI in predicting ARDS was 0.81 (0.76-0.85), the pooled specificity was 0.88 (0.84-0.91), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.91 (0.88-0.93). The analyzed studies included 28 models, with a pooled sensitivity of 0.79 (0.76-0.82), a pooled specificity of 0.85 (0.83-0.88), and an AUC of 0.89 (0.86-0.91). In the subgroup analysis, the pooled AUC of the AI models ANN, CNN, LR, RF, SVM, and XGB were 0.86 (0.83-0.89), 0.91 (0.88-0.93), 0.86 (0.83-0.89), and 0.89 (0.86-0.91), 0.90 (0.87-0.92), 0.93 (0.90-0.95), respectively. In an additional subgroup analysis, we evaluated the predictive performance of the AI models trained using different predictors. This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023491546).

CONCLUSION

AI has good sensitivity and specificity for predicting ARDS, indicating a high clinical application value. Algorithmic models such as CNN, SVM, and XGB have improved prediction performance. The subgroup analysis revealed that the model trained using images combined with other predictors had the best predictive performance.

Advances in the clinical application of machine learning in acute pancreatitis: a review

Traditional disease prediction models and scoring systems for acute pancreatitis (AP) are often inadequate in providing concise, reliable, and effective predictions regarding disease progression and prognosis. As a novel interdisciplinary field within artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) is increasingly being applied to various aspects of AP, including severity assessment, complications, recurrence rates, organ dysfunction, and the timing of surgical intervention. This review focuses on recent advancements in the application of ML models in the context of AP.

Machine Learning Tools for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Detection and Prediction

Machine learning (ML) tools for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) detection and prediction are increasingly used. Therefore, understanding risks and benefits of such algorithms is relevant at the bedside. ARDS is a complex and severe lung condition that can be challenging to define precisely due to its multifactorial nature. It often arises as a response to various underlying medical conditions, such as pneumonia, sepsis, or trauma, leading to widespread inflammation in the lungs. ML has shown promising potential in supporting the recognition of ARDS in ICU patients. By analyzing a variety of clinical data, including vital signs, laboratory results, and imaging findings, ML models can identify patterns and risk factors associated with the development of ARDS. This detection and prediction could be crucial for timely interventions, diagnosis and treatment. In summary, leveraging ML for the early prediction and detection of ARDS in ICU patients holds great potential to enhance patient care, improve outcomes, and contribute to the evolving landscape of precision medicine in critical care settings. This article is a concise definitive review on artificial intelligence and ML tools for the prediction and detection of ARDS in critically ill patients.

A systematic review of machine learning models for management, prediction and classification of ARDS

AIM

Acute respiratory distress syndrome or ARDS is an acute, severe form of respiratory failure characterised by poor oxygenation and bilateral pulmonary infiltrates. Advancements in signal processing and machine learning have led to promising solutions for classification, event detection and predictive models in the management of ARDS.

METHOD

In this review, we provide systematic description of different studies in the application of Machine Learning (ML) and artificial intelligence for management, prediction, and classification of ARDS. We searched the following databases: Google Scholar, PubMed, and EBSCO from 2009 to 2023. A total of 243 studies was screened, in which, 52 studies were included for review and analysis. We integrated knowledge of previous work providing the state of art and overview of explainable decision models in machine learning and have identified areas for future research.

RESULTS

Gradient boosting is the most common and successful method utilised in 12 (23.1%) of the studies. Due to limitation of data size available, neural network and its variation is used by only 8 (15.4%) studies. Whilst all studies used cross validating technique or separated database for validation, only 1 study validated the model with clinician input. Explainability methods were presented in 15 (28.8%) of studies with the most common method is feature importance which used 14 times.

CONCLUSION

For databases of 5000 or fewer samples, extreme gradient boosting has the highest probability of success. A large, multi-region, multi centre database is required to reduce bias and take advantage of neural network method. A framework for validating with and explaining ML model to clinicians involved in the management of ARDS would be very helpful for development and deployment of the ML model.

Predicting the risk of early intensive care unit admission for patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis using supervised machine learning

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex and life-threatening disease. Early recognition of factors predicting morbidity and mortality is crucial. We aimed to develop and validate a pragmatic model to predict the individualized risk of early intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with AP.

METHODS

The 2019 Nationwide Readmission Database was used to identify patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AP without ICU admission. A matched comparison cohort of AP patients with ICU admission within 7 days of hospitalization was identified from the National Inpatient Sample after 1:N propensity score matching. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors and develop an ICU acute pancreatitis risk (IAPR) score validated by 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

A total of 1513 patients hospitalized for AP were included. The median age was 50.0 years (interquartile range: 39.0-63.0). The three predictors that were selected included hypoxia (area under the curve [AUC] 0.78), acute kidney injury (AUC 0.72), and cardiac arrhythmia (AUC 0.61). These variables were used to develop a nomogram that displayed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.874) (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% confidence interval 0.824-0.876). There was no evidence of miscalibration (test statistic = 2.88; P = 0.09). For high-risk patients (total score >6 points), the sensitivity was 68.94% and the specificity was 92.66%.

CONCLUSIONS

This supervised machine learning-based model can help recognize high-risk AP hospitalizations. Clinicians may use the IAPR score to identify patients with AP at high risk of ICU admission within the first week of hospitalization.

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Protective effect of rivastigmine against lung injury in acute pancreatitis model in rats via Hsp 70/IL6/ NF-κB signaling cascade

Acute lung injury (ALI) that develops as a result of AP can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Some hypotheses are proposed to explain the pathophysiology of AP and its related pulmonary hazards. This experiment aimed to evaluate the mitigating action of rivastigmine (Riva) in lung injury that occurs on the top of acute pancreatitis (AP) induced in rats. Thirty-two male Wister rats were randomized to one of four groups: control, Riva-treated, acute pancreatitis (AP), and acute pancreatitis treated by Riva. Serum amylase and lipase levels were assessed. Pulmonary oxidative stress and inflammatory indicators were estimated. A pancreatic and pulmonary histopathological examination, as well as an immunohistochemical study of HSP70, was carried out. Riva significantly attenuated the L-arginine-related lung injury that was characterized by increased pulmonary inflammatory biomarkers (interleukin-6 [IL-6]), nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), increased pulmonary oxidative markers (total nitrite/nitrate [NOx]), MDA, decreased total antioxidant capacity (TAC), and reduced glutathione level (GSH)) with increased caspase-3 expression. Therefore, Riva retains potent ameliorative effects against lung injury that occur on the top of AP by relieving oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis via HSP70/IL6/NF-κB signaling.