Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience

A comparative analysis of influenza and COVID-19: Environmental-ecological impacts, socioeconomic implications, and future challenges

In the last century, global pandemics have been primarily driven by respiratory infections, which consistently rank among the top 20 causes of death worldwide. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has underscored the intricate nature of managing multiple health crises simultaneously. In recent years, climate change has emerged as a major biosafety and population health challenge. Global warming and extreme weather events have intensified outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases, especially respiratory diseases. Influenza and COVID-19 have emerged as two of the most significant respiratory pandemics, each with unique epidemic characteristics and far-reaching consequences. Our comparative analysis reveals that while both diseases exhibit high transmission rates, COVID-19's longer incubation period and higher severity have led to more profound and prolonged socioeconomic disruptions than influenza. Both pandemics have highlighted the exacerbating effects of climate change, with extreme weather events intensifying the spread and impact of these diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global healthcare systems and economies on an unprecedented scale, outstripping the strain caused by influenza outbreaks. Importantly, the COVID-19 pandemic has not only reshaped global public health strategies but also significantly impacted the epidemiology of influenza. Despite these differences and associations, both diseases underscore the urgent need for robust pandemic preparedness and adaptable public health strategies. This review delineates the overlaps and distinctions between influenza and COVID-19, offering insights into future challenges and the critical steps needed to enhance healthcare system resilience and improve global responses to pandemics.

The effect of adaptive capacity on resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-country analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic's profound impacts on global health, driven by preparedness gaps and systemic risks, underscore the need to enhance societies' ability to manage both predictable risks and uncertainties inherent in disasters. While disaster research emphasises risk management for predictable threats and adaptive capacity for unexpected challenges, there is a lack of empirical examination of the impact of adaptive capacity on disaster resilience. This study addresses this gap by identifying three key adaptive capacities - quality of institutions, collaborative governance, and social capital - and examining their effects on COVID-19 resilience outcomes, measured by the ability to reduce excess mortality. Analysing secondary data from 129 nations using partial least squares structural equation modelling, the research finds significant positive effects of institutional quality and social capital on resilience outcomes. Conversely, collaborative governance shows a significant negative association, suggesting potentially intricate impacts beyond initial expectations. The findings highlight the need to enhance institutional quality and social capital to address preparedness gaps and unexpected challenges posed by biological hazards such as COVID-19. Future research should explore collaborative governance using a disaggregated approach that considers the roles of different stakeholders in various disaster phases.

Contribution

This study advances disaster research by presenting practical methodologies for operationalising adaptive capacities and empirically examining their effects on disaster resilience. For practitioners and policymakers, it highlights the need to adopt a long-term perspective in building disaster resilience, focussing on improving institutional quality and social capital to manage the uncertainties and complexities inherent in disaster scenarios effectively.

Assessing the effects of extreme climate risk on urban ecological resilience in China

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has imparted significant pressure on urban ecosystem management. Evaluating the relationship between extreme climate risk (ECR) and urban ecological resilience (UER) is a key issue in achieving the green and sustainable development objectives of cities. This study measures UER in China from 2005 to 2020 using the entropy weight method-TOPSIS method, investigates the relationship between ECR and UER using the dynamic GMM model, and further explores the influencing mechanism. The results suggest that ECR has an inhibiting influence on UER. Additionally, the moderating mechanism investigation demonstrates that environmental regulation can mitigate the threat of ECR to UER to a certain extent, and with the regulation effect based on the government's environmental concern being better than that of the market pollution fee payment. The group test outcomes demonstrate that the discrepancies in regions and marketization lead to certain differences in the relationship between ECR and UER. Additional investigation indicates that ECR has an asymmetric relationship with UER at distinct quantiles. Our findings reflect the subtle associations between ECR and UER as a whole, and will help relevant organizations in formulating more precise and scientific policies to enhance urban ecological resilience.

Climate Changes and COVID-19

Climatic change, which influences population growth and land usage, has been theorized to be linked to the emergence and spread of new viruses like the currently unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. In this chapter, we explain how climate change may have altered the beginning, transmission, and maybe even the sickness consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Where possible, we also provide mechanistic explanations for how this may have occurred. We have presented evidence that suggests climate change may have had a role in the establishment and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and most possibly even in some of its clinical effects. Human activities bringing people into closer contact with bats and animals like pangolins that potentially represent the intermediate hosts, and evidence that climate-induced changes in vegetation are the main reservoir source of coronaviruses for human infection, are among the explanations. Although there are still unsubstantiated indications that the first viral pathogen may have escaped from a laboratory, it is possible that this encounter took place in the field or in marketplaces in the instance of COVID-19. We also present the argument that climate change is working to enhance transmission between diseased and uninfected humans, and this is true regardless of the source of the original development of the disease. Changes in temperature and humidity make it easier for viruses to survive, and the impacts of industrial pollution induce people to cough and sneeze, which releases highly infectious aerosols into the air. These three factors combine to make this a more likely scenario than it would otherwise be. We suggest that changes in climate are contributing to create conditions that are favorable for the development of more severe symptoms of illness. It is more difficult to build the argument for this circumstance, and much of it is indirect. However, climate change has caused some communities to adjust their nutritional habits, both in terms of the quantity of food they eat and the quality of the foods they consume. The effects frequently become apparent as a result of alterations that are imposed on the microbiome of the gut, which, in turn, influence the types of immune responses that are produced. The incidence of comorbidities like diabetes and animal vectors like bats that transmit other illnesses that modify vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 are also two examples of the factors that have been affected by climate change. In order to curb the development of infectious illnesses caused by new viruses, it is necessary to understand the connection between environmental dynamics and the emergence of new coronaviruses. This knowledge should lead to initiatives aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Knowledge risk management in banks - An area for improving organizational performance

Research on the topic of knowledge risks and their management in organizations is still very scarce, this also applies to empirical studies. However, to avoid the uncritical acceptance of empirical results, replication studies play a crucial role in science. Therefore, this study represents a replication study of the type of empirical generalization of the paper by Durst et al. (2019) which studied knowledge risk management (KRM) in private and public organizations. Considering the KRM and performance assumptions underlying the original study and the methodology used, the results at that time are reviewed using new data from 103 Italian cooperative banks. This paper contributes to the study of risks related to knowledge and its theoretical development by providing new empirical evidence from a different cultural, geographical and institutional context. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of replication studies for knowledge accumulation and theory development in management science.

National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective

National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.

COVID-19 risks and systemic gaps in Nigeria: resilience building lessons for pandemic and climate change management

Pandemics alter a lot of human activities and the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 was no exception. The COVID-19 pandemic, like climate change, has far-reaching consequences that transcend geographical boundaries. The COVID-19-induced disruptions were global and rapid and so are emerging climate change impacts which are slow on set. The consequent closure of businesses and public facilities translated to economic grounding which invariably took a toll on people. The extensive impact across various facets of society highlights the complex interrelationship often overlooked by most people. Although most African countries escaped the wrath of the disease, the lessons from the pandemic must be learnt and mainstreamed into managing the impacts of climate change. This paper attempts to draw lessons from recent developments and gaps experienced in the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and how improvements can be made in managing climate change. The analysis identified gaps in the management of COVID-19 in Nigeria. These gaps are evident in the current management of climate change impact and mitigation. The paper highlighted lessons from the pandemic in Nigeria that are vital in the management of climate change. The paper identified supply chain resilience and circularity, overhauling of health insurance programmes, diversification for growth, reorientation of priorities, and the building of agile and responsive institutions as practical approaches to mainstream lessons from the pandemic for climate change impact management. Furthermore, adequate investment in preparedness, risk education, research and development, and integrated data infrastructure is vital to ensure the lessons become part of the consciousness of the people.

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

Climate change impacts are increasingly complex owing to compounding, interacting, and cascading risks across sectors. However, approaches to support Disaster Risk Management (DRM) addressing the underlying (uncertain) risk driver interactions are still lacking. We tailor the approach of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) to DAPP-MR to design DRM pathways for complex, dynamic multi-risk in multi-sector systems. We review the recent multi-hazard and multi-sector research to identify relevant aspects of multi-risk management frameworks and illustrate the suitability of DAPP-MR using a stylized case. It is found that rearranging the analytical steps of DAPP by introducing three iteration stages can help to capture interactions, trade-offs, and synergies across hazards and sectors. We show that DAPP-MR may guide multi-sector processes to stepwise integrate knowledge toward multi-risk management. DAPP-MR can be seen as an analytical basis and first step toward an operational, integrative, and interactive framework for short-to long-term multi-risk DRM.

Review: Climate change resilience disconnect in rural communities in coastal Kenya. A rhetoric communication discord proliferated by COVID-19 pandemic

The world has been hit by consequential pandemics in the past two millennia. The COVID-19 pandemic has taken center stage, paralyzing vulnerable communities in the global south impacted by unprecedented climate vagaries. The focus of this study is COVID-19 and climate resilience communication rhetoric. In this context, we embed this study in response to the resilience of rural livelihoods to the COVID-19 crisis and climate resilience education communication rhetoric. We posit our review based on the following questions: Has COVID-19 worsened the climate resilience pathway for rural communities in coastal Kenya? Is the COVID-19 pandemic a proxy for climate resilience in rural livelihoods? How does COVID-19 communication rhetoric undermine climate resilience for vulnerable coastal communities in Kenya? Through a resilient theoretical paradigm, we enclose our view based on the existing literature along with climate resilience and COVID-19 proliferation. In light of the current state of COVID-19, the focus has shifted to the pandemic that will cover climate resilience. From the review, climate resilience pathway has been impacted by corona virus with noted funding response variations, in addition, even with the corona virus pandemic, climate resilience communication should be on-going rather than sporadic. Increasing the discursive process about climate change challenges is critical among Kenyan coastal communities. We recommend inclusion of climate resilience communication in existing policy frameworks as a salient solution to notable information discourse bottlenecks.

Interactions between climate and COVID-19

In this Personal View, we explain the ways that climatic risks affect the transmission, perception, response, and lived experience of COVID-19. First, temperature, wind, and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19 in ways not fully understood, although non-climatic factors appear more important than climatic factors in explaining disease transmission. Second, climatic extremes coinciding with COVID-19 have affected disease exposure, increased susceptibility of people to COVID-19, compromised emergency responses, and reduced health system resilience to multiple stresses. Third, long-term climate change and prepandemic vulnerabilities have increased COVID-19 risk for some populations (eg, marginalised communities). The ways climate and COVID-19 interact vary considerably between and within populations and regions, and are affected by dynamic and complex interactions with underlying socioeconomic, political, demographic, and cultural conditions. These conditions can lead to vulnerability, resilience, transformation, or collapse of health systems, communities, and livelihoods throughout varying timescales. It is important that COVID-19 response and recovery measures consider climatic risks, particularly in locations that are susceptible to climate extremes, through integrated planning that includes public health, disaster preparedness, emergency management, sustainable development, and humanitarian response.

An empirical study of the effect of a flooding event caused by extreme rainfall on preventive behaviors against COVID-19

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, wearing masks, vaccinations, and maintaining a safe distance has become social behaviors advocated by the government and widely adopted by the public. At the same time, unpredictable natural disaster risks brought by extreme climate change compound difficulties during epidemics and cause systemic risks that influence the existing pattern of epidemic prevention. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the effect of natural disaster risk caused by climate change on the response to outbreaks in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will focus on individual-level epidemic prevention behaviors, taking as an example the significant risk of severe destructive flooding caused by heavy rains in Henan, China, on July 20, 2021, which claimed 398 lives, to explore the effect of floods on the preventive behaviors of residents in the hardest hit areas against COVID-19. Through the multi-stage stratified random sampling of the affected residents in Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Hebi, Luoyang, Anyang, and other cities in Henan Province, 2,744 affected people were surveyed via questionnaires. Through the linear regression model and moderating effect analysis, the study found that after floods, the individual's flood risk perception and response behaviors significantly correlated with the individual's prevention behaviors against COVID-19. Specifically, both flood risk perception and response behaviors strengthened the individual's prevention behaviors. Furthermore, the study also found that community risk preparation behavior and social capital can moderate the above relationship to a certain extent. The research can guide risk communication under the compound risk scenario and prevent risky public behavior under the consistent presence of COVID-19 in the community.

Cooperation Enhances Adaptation to Environmental Uncertainty: Evidence from Irrigation Behavioral Experiments in South China

The world currently faces an unprecedented phase of global environmental change largely driven by the combined impact of anthropogenic climate change and environmental degradation. Adaptation to global environmental changes in natural resource management is often hindered by high levels of uncertainty related to environmental impact projections. Management strategies and policies to support adaptation measures and sustainable resource management under substantial environmental uncertainty are thus urgently needed. The paper reports results of behavioral irrigation experiments with farmers and students in the region of Hangzhou in China. The experimental design simulates a small-scale irrigation system with five parties located along an irrigation channel. The first treatment adds weather variability with a drying tendency that influences water availability in the irrigation channel. In the second treatment, the participants can select one of two adaptation options. Our results suggest that participants react with a marked delay to weather uncertainty. In addition, upstream players are more likely to adapt to uncertainty than those further downstream, and groups who show higher levels of cooperation more frequently invest in adaptation measures. Lastly, extraction inequality in earlier stages is found to constitute a key obstacle to collective adaptation.