Resilience and vulnerability: distinct concepts to address global change in forests

Resilience and vulnerability are important concepts to understand, anticipate, and manage global change impacts on forest ecosystems. However, they are often used confusingly and inconsistently, hampering a synthetic understanding of global change, and impeding communication with managers and policy-makers. Both concepts are powerful and have complementary strengths, reflecting their different history, methodological approach, components, and spatiotemporal focus. Resilience assessments address the temporal response to disturbance and the mechanisms driving it. Vulnerability assessments focus on spatial patterns of exposure and susceptibility, and explicitly address adaptive capacity and stakeholder preferences. We suggest applying the distinct concepts of resilience and vulnerability where they provide particular leverage, and deduce a number of lessons learned to facilitate the next generation of global change assessments.

Individual variation in thermally induced plasticity of metabolic rates: ecological and evolutionary implications for a warming world

Energy metabolism is a fundamental property of life providing the energy for all processes and functions within an organism. As it is temperature-dependent, it mediates the effects of changing climate on ectotherm fitness and population dynamics. Though resting metabolic rate is a highly labile trait, part of its variation is individually consistent. Recent findings show that resting metabolic rate contains consistent variation not only in the elevations (intercepts) but also in the slopes of individual thermal dependence curves, challenging the thermal dependence assumption for this trait in several ectotherm taxa. I argue that among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves represents a previously undetected component of ectotherm response to climate change, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and population resilience under increasing stochasticity of thermal environment. Future studies need to examine not only the amount of among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves across phylogenetic contexts but also other aspects concerning its mechanisms and adaptive significance to improve predictions about the impact of climate change on ectotherm population dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary significance of variation in metabolic rates'.

A Framework for Evaluating Local Adaptive Capacity to Health Impacts of Climate Change: Use of Kenya's County-Level Integrated Development Plans

Background

Health National Adaptation Plans were developed to increase the capacity of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to adapt to the impacts of climate change on the health sector. Climate and its health impacts vary locally, yet frameworks for evaluating the adaptive capacity of health systems on the subnational scale are lacking. In Kenya, counties prepare county integrated development plans (CIDPs), which contain information that might support evaluations of the extent to which counties are planning climate change adaptation for health.

Objectives

To develop and apply a framework for evaluating CIDPs to assess the extent to which Kenya's counties are addressing the health sector's adaptive capacity to climate change.

Methods

CIDPs were analyzed based on the extent to which they addressed climate change in their description of county health status, whether health is noted in their descriptions of climate change, and whether they mention plans for developing climate and health programs. Based on these and other data points, composite climate and health adaptation (CHA) scores were calculated. Associations between CHA scores and poverty rates were analyzed.

Findings

CHA scores varied widely and were not associated with county-level poverty. Nearly all CIDPs noted climate change, approximately half mentioned health in the context of climate change and only 16 (34%) noted one or more specific climate-sensitive health conditions. Twelve (25%) had plans for a sub-program in both adaptive capacity and environmental health. Among the 24 counties with plans to develop climate-related programs in health programs, all specified capacity building, and 20% specified integrating health into disaster risk reduction.

Conclusion

Analyses of county planning documents provide insights into the extent to which the impacts of climate change on health are being addressed at the subnational level in Kenya. This approach may support governments elsewhere in evaluating climate change adaptation for health by subnational governments.

The vulnerability of World Heritage seagrass habitats to climate change

Seagrass is an important natural attribute of 28 World Heritage (WH) properties. These WH seagrass habitats provide a wide range of services to adjacent ecosystems and human communities, and are one of the largest natural carbon sinks on the planet. Climate change is considered the greatest and fastest-growing threat to natural WH properties and evidence of climate-related impacts on seagrass habitats has been growing. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of WH seagrass habitats to location-specific key climate stressors. Quantitative surveys of seagrass experts and site managers were used to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of WH seagrass habitats to climate stressors, following the Climate Vulnerability Index approach. Over half of WH seagrass habitats have high vulnerability to climate change, mainly from the long-term increase in sea-surface temperature and short-term marine heatwaves. Potential impacts from climate change and certainty scores associated with them were higher than reported by a similar survey-based study from 10 years prior, indicating a shift in stakeholder perspectives during the past decade. Additionally, seagrass experts' opinions on the cumulative impacts of climate and direct-anthropogenic stressors revealed that high temperature in combination with high suspended sediments, eutrophication and hypoxia is likely to provoke a synergistic cumulative (negative) impact (p < .05). A key component contributing to the high vulnerability assessments was the low adaptive capacity; however, discrepancies between adaptive capacity scores and qualitative responses suggest that managers of WH seagrass habitats might not be adequately equipped to respond to climate change impacts. This thematic assessment provides valuable information to help prioritize conservation actions, monitoring activities and research in WH seagrass habitats. It also demonstrates the utility of a systematic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of thematic groups of protected areas that share a specific attribute.

Factors in the disaster mitigation process for micro and small culinary enterprises in Indonesia

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has predisposed most business activities, including the culinary business. The higher the vulnerability rating of a business, the more significant the risk. This study aims to analyse the vulnerability of businesses based on the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to determine priority factors in disaster risk mitigation in order to maintain business continuity. This research was conducted in Surakarta City, Central Java province, Indonesia. The sample was selected using purposive random sampling based on business experience of at least two years, and were not hawkers. Data collection was carried out through structured interviews. This study utilised a qualitative approach using an index. The vulnerability model was developed to assess the vulnerability of culinary businesses to COVID-19. COVID-19 is a threat in the health industry from the macro external environment of business. It is considered the exposure dimension. The sensitivity dimension consists of business characteristics, business owner-manager demographics, and product and supplier characteristics. The demographic dimension of the business owner-manager has high vulnerability and has a high contribution to the sensitivity variable as the most vulnerable variable. The adaptive capacity dimension consists of human capital, economic capital, institutional capital, managerial capital, and supply chain capital. Managerial competencies are an adaptive capacity dimension that has a high vulnerability. The vulnerability of business to the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic is a model for culinary business managers and owners in determining priority factors in disaster risk mitigation in order to maintain business continuity.

Contribution

This study analysed the vulnerability of culinary businesses for micro and small businesses. Low vulnerability means high resilience. Business resilience is conceptualised as a production function that is predisposed by various combinations of inputs from exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity variables.

Short-term responses of meat ewes facing an acute nutritional challenge in early-mid lactation

Simulating a consequence of a climate change event on feed availability, responses of Mediterranean meat ewes facing an acute undernutritional challenge (CHA; i.e., fed only low nutritional value cereal straw) were evaluated at a sensitive physiological stage (i.e., early suckling). Forty Romane ewes were chosen at early-mid pregnancy (around 2 mo) according to parity (20 primiparous, PRIM; 20 multiparous, MULT); feed efficiency genetic line of their sires (residual feed intake [RFI]; efficient, RFI-, n = 10 per parity; inefficient, RFI+, n = 10 per parity); litter size (i.e., bearing twins, diagnosed by ultrasonography); body weight (BW, kg) and body condition score (BCS) (initial BW and BCS [mean ± SD]: 51.6 ± 7.41 kg; 2.5 ± 0.20, respectively; representing flock' averages per parity). Effects on dry matter intake (DMI), ewes' BW and BCS, subcutaneous dorsal fat thickness (DFT), energy metabolism (plasma non-esterified fatty acids [NEFA], β-hydroxybutyrate (β-OHB), glucose, urea, triiodothyronine [T3]), and lambs' growth (BW and average daily gain [ADG]; g/d) were examined before, during and after CHA. Individuals' profiles of the response-recovery to CHA were described using a piecewise mixed-effects model. The fixed effect of parity and genetic line and the random effect of individual (ewe) were considered. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to explore the effects on lambs' growth. The 2-d straw-only CHA had significant effects on most of the recorded parameters. Meaningful drops and recoveries were observed on ewes' DMI, BW, and DFT with effect on postchallenge levels. BW, BCS, DFT, or DMI were also affected by parity (MULT > PRIM) but not by genetic line. Plasma NEFA, β-OHB, glucose, urea, and T3 responded well to CHA with drops in T3, urea, and glucose levels, whereas NEFA and β-OHB significantly increased after CHA. MULT ewes presented sharper β-OHB recovery from CHA than PRIM (P ≤ 0.05). With this study, we provide tangible and necessary data for an emerging field of research. Our results give new insights into how such a short and abrupt CHA affects some key zootechnical and physiological parameters, and to what extent the impacts of CHA and the ewes' response-recovery are influenced. It also revealed potential between-individual differences in the adaptive capacities of ewes, which require further exploration.

Understanding constraints to adaptation using a community-centred toolkit

Worldwide, marginalized and low-income communities will disproportionately suffer climate change impacts while also retaining the least political power to mitigate their consequences. To adapt to environmental shocks, communities must balance intensifying natural resource consumption with the need to ensure the sustainability of ecosystem provisioning services. Thus, scientists have long been providing policy recommendations that seek to balance humanitarian needs with the best outcomes for the conservation of ecosystems and wildlife. However, many conservation and development practitioners from biological backgrounds receive minimal training in either social research methods or participatory project design. Without a clear understanding of the sociocultural factors shaping decision-making, their initiatives may fail to meet their goals, even when communities support proposed initiatives. This paper explores the underlying assumptions of a community's agency, or its ability to develop and enact preferred resilience-enhancing adaptations. We present a context-adaptable toolkit to assess community agency, identify barriers to adaptation, and survey perceptions of behaviour change around natural resource conservation and alternative food acquisition strategies. This tool draws on public health and ecology methods to facilitate conversations between community members, practitioners and scientists. We then provide insights from the toolkit's collaborative development and pilot testing with Vezo fishing communities in southwestern Madagascar. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

From Threatening Chaos to Temporary Order through a Complex Process of Adaptation: A Grounded Theory Study of the Escalation of Intensive Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic

To ensure high-quality care, operationalize resilience and fill the knowledge gap regarding how to improve the prerequisites for resilient performance, it is necessary to understand how adaptive capacity unfolds in practice. The main aim of this research was to explain the escalation process of intensive care during the first wave of the pandemic from a microlevel perspective, including expressions of resilient performance, intervening conditions at the micro-meso-macrolevels and short- and long-term consequences. A secondary aim was to provide recommendations regarding how to optimize the prerequisites for resilient performance in intensive care. A grounded theory methodology was used. First-person stories from different healthcare professionals (n70) in two Swedish regions were analyzed using the constant comparative method. This resulted in a novel conceptual model (including 6 main categories and 24 subcategories), and 41 recommendations. The conclusion of these findings is that the escalation of intensive care can be conceptualized as a transition from threatening chaos to temporary order through a complex process of adaptation. To prepare for the future, the components of space, stuff, staff, system and science, with associated continuity plans, must be implemented, anchored and communicated to actors at all levels of the system.

Adaptive capacity in the implementation of disaster response village programme in Indonesia: Literature review

The disaster-resilient village programme, which aims to develop settlements with the autonomy to adapt and deal with disasters aims to promote disaster awareness. Several questions arise regarding the contribution of the programme to the development of the adaptive capacity of village communities, including: what types of adaptive capacity emerge as a result of the programme's implementation, and what factors promote and inhibit the development of adaptive capacity? This study employs a comprehensive literature review. The initial step is to do a keyword search using Publish or Perish 8.2.3944.8118. This study includes a range of search phrases, including the phrase 'disaster-resilience' and keywords: community resiliency, disaster preparedness and disaster policy. The type of adaptive capacity that emerges from the implementation of the disaster response village programme incorporates the topic of flexibility predominantly, showing that this programme raises a diversity of adaption practices and possibilities in the community. This approach is influenced by the disaster-prone geographical characteristics of Indonesia. Practical gaps exist in the form of evaluating values in the development of similar disaster programmes, while theoretical gaps exist in the form of conceptual identification of cultural characteristics that may occur as a result of efforts to build adaptive ability through the programme. This article examines societal values that are affected by programmes.

Contribution

This manuscript aims to add to the variety of disaster programme design initiatives requiring community resilience and sustainability. This sociocultural and disaster-related field is pertinent to the scope of this publication.

No size fits all - a qualitative study of factors that enable adaptive capacity in diverse hospital teams

Introduction

Resilient healthcare research studies how healthcare systems and stakeholders adapt and cope with challenges and changes to enable high quality care. By examining how performance emerges in everyday work in different healthcare settings, the research seeks to receive knowledge of the enablers for adaptive capacity. Hospitals are defined as complex organizations with a large number of actors collaborating on increasingly complexity tasks. Consequently, most of today's work in hospitals is team based. The study aims to explore and describe what kind of team factors enable adaptive capacity in hospital teams.

Methods

The article reports from a multiple embedded case study in two Norwegian hospitals. A case was defined as one hospital containing four different types of teams in a hospital setting. Data collection used triangulation of observation (115 h) and interviews (30), followed by a combined deductive and inductive analysis of the material.

Results

The study identified four main themes of team related factors for enabling adaptive capacity; (1) technology and tools, (2) roles, procedures, and organization of work, (3) competence, experience, knowledge, and learning, (4) team culture and relations.

Discussion

Investigating adaptive capacity in four different types of teams allowed for consideration of a range of team types within healthcare and how the team factors vary within and across these teams. All of the four identified team factors are of importance in enabling adaptive capacity, the various attributes of the respective team types prompt differences in the significance of the different factors and indicates that different types of teams could need diverse types of training, structural and relational emphasis in team composition, leadership, and non-technical skills in order to optimize everyday functionality and adaptive capacity.

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.

Are Mediterranean marine threatened species at high risk by climate change?

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is driving threatened biodiversity one step closer to extinction. Effects on native biodiversity are determined by an interplay between species' exposure to climate change and their specific ecological and life-history characteristics that render them even more susceptible. Impacts on biodiversity have already been reported, however, a systematic risk evaluation of threatened marine populations is lacking. Here, we employ a trait-based approach to assess the risk of 90 threatened marine Mediterranean species to climate change, combining species' exposure to increased sea temperature and intrinsic vulnerability. One-quarter of the threatened marine biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is predicted to be under elevated levels of climate risk, with various traits identified as key vulnerability traits. High-risk taxa including sea turtles, marine mammals, Anthozoa and Chondrichthyes are highlighted. Climate risk, vulnerability and exposure hotspots are distributed along the Western Mediterranean, Alboran, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. At each Mediterranean marine ecoregion, 21%-31% of their threatened species have high climate risk. All Mediterranean marine protected areas host threatened species with high risk to climate change, with 90% having a minimum of 4 up to 19 species of high climate risk, making the objective of a climate-smart conservation strategy a crucial task for immediate planning and action. Our findings aspire to offer new insights for systematic, spatially strategic planning and prioritization of vulnerable marine life in the face of accelerating climate change.

Adapting the Evidence Academy model for virtual stakeholder engagement in a national setting during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic raised the importance of adaptive capacity and preparedness when engaging historically marginalized populations in research and practice. The Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics in Underserved Populations' COVID-19 Equity Evidence Academy Series (RADx-UP EA) is a virtual, national, interactive conference model designed to support and engage community-academic partnerships in a collaborative effort to improve practices that overcome disparities in SARS-CoV-2 testing and testing technologies. The RADx-UP EA promotes information sharing, critical reflection and discussion, and creation of translatable strategies for health equity. Staff and faculty from the RADx-UP Coordination and Data Collection Center developed three EA events with diverse geographic, racial, and ethnic representation of attendees from RADx-UP community-academic project teams: February 2021 (n = 319); November 2021 (n = 242); and September 2022 (n = 254). Each EA event included a data profile; 2-day, virtual event; event summary report; community dissemination product; and an evaluation strategy. Operational and translational delivery processes were iteratively adapted for each EA across one or more of five adaptive capacity domains: assets, knowledge and learning, social organization, flexibility, and innovation. The RADx-UP EA model can be generalized beyond RADx-UP and tailored by community and academic input to respond to local or national health emergencies.

Contrasting transcriptomic patterns reveal a genomic basis for drought resilience in the relict fir Abies pinsapo Boiss

Climate change challenges the adaptive capacity of several forest tree species in the face of increasing drought and rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding the mechanistic connections between genetic diversity and drought resilience is highly valuable for conserving drought-sensitive forests. Nonetheless, the post-drought recovery in trees from a transcriptomic perspective has not yet been studied by comparing contrasting phenotypes. Here, experimental drought treatments, gas-exchange dynamics and transcriptomic analysis (RNA-seq) were performed in the relict and drought-sensitive fir Abies pinsapo Boiss. to identify gene expression differences over immediate (24 h) and extended drought (20 days). Post-drought responses were investigated to define resilient and sensitive phenotypes. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were also studied to characterize the genomic basis of A. pinsapo drought resilience. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis showed an activation of stomatal closing and an inhibition of plant growth-related genes during the immediate drought, consistent with an isohydric dynamic. During the extended drought, transcription factors, as well as cellular damage and homeostasis protection-related genes prevailed. Resilient individuals activate photosynthesis-related genes and inhibit aerial growth-related genes, suggesting a shifting shoot/root biomass allocation to improve water uptake and whole-plant carbon balance. About, 152 fixed SNPs were found between resilient and sensitive seedlings, which were mostly located in RNA-activity-related genes, including epigenetic regulation. Contrasting gene expression and SNPs were found between different post-drought resilience phenotypes for the first time in a forest tree, suggesting a transcriptomic and genomic basis for drought resilience. The obtained drought-related transcriptomic profile and drought-resilience candidate genes may guide conservation programs for this threatened tree species.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Areas in the Context of Green Energy Development-A Study of the Great Masurian Lakes Mesoregion

Green energy production has become a common and recognized method of electricity generation. Giving up reliance on non-renewable energy sources is an important trend in the economies of many countries. The paper presents an analysis of the impact of indicators like increased green energy production on the level of vulnerability to climate change. The model of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (VCC) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (considering three aspects: exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the studied spatial unit/society) was applied. Sensitivity analysis, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics of indicators characterizing changes in electricity consumption, renewable energy production, greenhouse gas emissions, and variability of financial losses due to extreme weather events and their number were implemented. Several findings arose. First, the vulnerability to climate change (the level of the VCC index), does not decrease after the implementation of a single action, like the development of green energy production. The level of index of vulnerability to climate change (VCC1) from the reference year (2017) relative to VCC2 (2021) has changed slightly, despite the development of RES. The variation does not exceed a 1% reduction in the value of the VCC1 index. Second, the decrease in the level of the vulnerability requires global, coordinated action. The value of the VCC3 index, reflecting, including changes in green energy production (X15), electricity consumption/inhabitant (X38), and green-house gas emissions (X14), exhibited more favorably the impact of these indicators on vulnerability to climate change, compared to the VCC1 reference value. In eleven poviats, the VCC3 index decreased between 1 and 4%. In seven of these poviats, green energy production increased, resulting in an average 10% decrease in the X15 indicator, the X14 indicator representing green-house gas emissions decreased by an average of 7%, while the X38 indicator describing electricity consumption/per capita decreased by an average of 16%. Third, harmonized and inclusive action by the population holds the potential to be the clue to reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Responses to Wildfire and Prescribed Fire Smoke: A Survey of a Medically Vulnerable Adult Population in the Wildland-Urban Interface, Mariposa County, California

California plans to substantially increase the use of prescribed fire to reduce risk of catastrophic wildfires. Although for a beneficial purpose, prescribed fire smoke may still pose a health concern, especially among sensitive populations. We sought to understand community health experience, adaptive capacity, and attitudes regarding wildland and prescribed fire smoke to inform public health guidance. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of medically vulnerable persons in a rural, high fire risk county (N = 106, 76% > 65 years) regarding wildfire and prescribed smoke health effects; health protective actions; information needs; and support for fire management policies. Qualitative comments were reviewed for context and emerging themes. More than half (58%) of participants reported health impacts from wildfire smoke; 26% experienced impacts from prescribed fire smoke. Participants expressed strong support for prescribed fire, although also concerns about safety and smoke. Respondents reported taking actions to reduce smoke exposure (average 5 actions taken per person), but many (47%) lacked confidence that they could successfully protect their health. Persons who were satisfied with the information received tended to be more confident in their ability to protect their health compared to those who were not satisfied (61% vs. 35%). More information was desired on many topics, including notifications about prescribed fire, health protection and exposure reduction. As California expands use of prescribed fire, the need for effective health protective communication regarding smoke is increasingly vital. We recommend seeking solutions that strengthen community resilience and address equity for vulnerable populations.

Organizational Adaptive Capacity during a Large-Scale Surprise Event: A Case Study at an Academic Institution during the COVID-19 Pandemic

OCCUPATIONAL APPLICATIONSThe COVID-19 pandemic caused large organizations and institutions to adapt their decision-making procedures and hierarchical structures to address pandemic-specific concerns. By examining a large public university, we found that effective adaptation occurred through restructuring the decision-making processes, coordinating decisions between departments, and effective monitoring of prior decisions. When considering the COVID-19 pandemic as a fundamental surprise event, our work identified strategies and decision-making that both maintained and increased adaptive capacity through the course of such an event. Through this case study, we highlight decisions that can be made by similar large organizations, to increase adaptive capacity when they are faced with similar surprise events.

De novo transcriptome sequencing and gene co-expression reveal a genomic basis for drought sensitivity and evidence of a rapid local adaptation on Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica)

Introduction

Understanding the adaptive capacity to current climate change of drought-sensitive tree species is mandatory, given their limited prospect of migration and adaptation as long-lived, sessile organisms. Knowledge about the molecular and eco-physiological mechanisms that control drought resilience is thus key, since water shortage appears as one of the main abiotic factors threatening forests ecosystems. However, our current background is scarce, especially in conifers, due to their huge and complex genomes.

Methods

Here we investigated the eco-physiological and transcriptomic basis of drought response of the climate change-threatened conifer Cedrus atlantica. We studied C. atlantica seedlings from two locations with contrasting drought conditions to investigate a local adaptation. Seedlings were subjected to experimental drought conditions, and were monitored at immediate (24 hours) and extended (20 days) times. In addition, post-drought recovery was investigated, depicting two contrasting responses in both locations (drought resilient and non-resilient). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were also studied to characterize the genomic basis of drought resilience and investigate a rapid local adaptation of C. atlantica.

Results

De novo transcriptome assembly was performed for the first time in this species, providing differences in gene expression between the immediate and extended treatments, as well as among the post-drought recovery phenotypes. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis showed a regulation of stomatal closing and photosynthetic activity during the immediate drought, consistent with an isohydric dynamic. During the extended drought, growth and flavonoid biosynthesis inhibition mechanisms prevailed, probably to increase root-to-shoot ratio and to limit the energy-intensive biosynthesis of secondary metabolites. Drought sensitive individuals failed in metabolism and photosynthesis regulation under drought stress, and in limiting secondary metabolite production. Moreover, genomic differences (SNPs) were found between drought resilient and sensitive seedlings, and between the two studied locations, which were mostly related to transposable elements.

Discussion

This work provides novel insights into the transcriptomic basis of drought response of C. atlantica, a set of candidate genes mechanistically involved in its drought sensitivity and evidence of a rapid local adaptation. Our results may help guide conservation programs for this threatened conifer, contribute to advance drought-resilience research and shed light on trees' adaptive potential to current climate change.

Contributions of phenotypic integration, plasticity and genetic adaptation to adaptive capacity relating to drought in Banksia marginata (Proteaceae)

The frequency and intensity of drought events are predicted to increase because of climate change, threatening biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems in many parts of the world. Drought has already led to declines in functionally important tree species, which are documented in dieback events, shifts in species distributions, local extinctions, and compromised ecosystem function. Understanding whether tree species possess the capacity to adapt to future drought conditions is a major conservation challenge. In this study, we assess the capacity of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae) to adapt to water-limited environments. A water-manipulated common garden experiment was used to test for phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation in seedlings sourced from seven provenances of contrasting climate-origins (wet and dry). We found evidence of local adaptation relating to plant growth investment strategies with populations from drier climate-origins showing greater growth in well-watered conditions. The results also revealed that environment drives variation in physiological (stomatal conductance, predawn and midday water potential) and structural traits (wood density, leaf dry matter content). Finally, these results indicate that traits are coordinated to optimize conservation of water under water-limited conditions and that trait coordination (phenotypic integration) does not constrain phenotypic plasticity. Overall, this study provides evidence for adaptive capacity relating to drought conditions in B. marginata, and a basis for predicting the response to climate change in this functionally important plant species.

Improving quality and efficiency of translational research: Environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award Program hubs

Translational science is, by definition, groundbreaking; however, without an emphasis on quality and efficiency, some innovations in healthcare may translate into unnecessary risk, suboptimal solutions, and potentially loss of well-being and even lives. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Clinical and Translational Sciences Award Consortium's response created an opportunity for quality and efficiency to be better defined, expediently and thoughtfully addressed, and further studied as central foundations in the translational science mission. This paper presents findings of an environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness to illuminate the assets, institutional environment, knowledge, and forward-looking decision-making needed to optimize and sustain research quality and efficiency.

Development of three new multidimensional measures to assess household food insecurity resilience in the United States

Introduction

This study aimed to develop and test novel self-administered measures (Absorptive capacity, Adaptive capacity, and Transformative capacity) of three aspects of a household's resilience to financial shocks (e.g., job loss) that can increase food insecurity risk.

Methods

Measures were piloted in a convenience sample of households at risk for food insecurity in the United States. The survey included the new measures, validation variables (financial shock, household food security, general health, personal resilience to challenges, and financial wellbeing), and demographic questions. Exploratory factor analysis was used to assess dimensionality, internal consistency was assessed [Cronbach's alpha (CA)], and construct validity was assessed (Spearman's correlation). Also, brief screener versions of the full measures were created.

Results

Participants in the analytic samples (n = 220-394) averaged 44 years old, 67% experienced food insecurity, 47% had a high school diploma or less, 72% were women, and the sample was racially/ethnically diverse. Scores for Absorptive capacity [one factor; CA = 0.70; Mean = 1.32 (SD = 0.54)], Adaptive capacity [three factors; CAs 0.83-0.90; Mean = 2.63 (SD = 0.85)], and Transformative capacity [three factors; CAs 0.87-0.95; Mean = 2.70 (SD = 1.10)] were negatively associated with financial shocks (-0.221 to -0.307) and positively associated with food insecurity (0.310-0.550) general health (0.255-0.320), personal resilience (0.231-0.384), and financial wellbeing (0.401-0.474).

Discussion

These findings are encouraging and support reliability and validity of these new measures within this sample. Following further testing, such as Confirmatory Factor Analysis in future samples, these measures may prove useful for needs assessments, program evaluation, intake screening, and research/surveillance. Widespread adoption in the future may promote a more comprehensive understanding of the food insecurity experience and facilitate development of tailored interventions on upstream causes of food insecurity.

A conservation organisation's approach to COVID-19: Lessons learned from Madagascar

Blue Ventures (BV) works holistically with communities in Madagascar, developing transformative approaches to catalyse and sustain locally led marine conservation. In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, BV's priority was to safeguard the immediate wellbeing and livelihoods of as many communities as possible, recognising that livelihoods are integral to broader well-being. This article describes in detail BV's health response and the perceptions of BV's Madagascar team regarding the successes and challenges of this effort. As a result of the combined efforts of BV teams across Madagascar and in the United Kingdom, the existing healthcare services at BV's sites were maintained, and messages about recognising and dealing with COVID-19 and the importance of vaccination were conveyed to communities that might otherwise not have received comprehensive information. Data were also collected on suspected cases in areas where testing was not available, and outbreaks of suspected COVID-19 cases were managed. Because BV's teams are embedded within the communities where they work, they maintain strong relationships with communities and conveyed important messages around reducing the spread of COVID-19, not only via activities in response to the pandemic but also through activities for other programmes such as fisheries and livelihoods. Blue Ventures' holistic approach ensured that the organisation had a multidimensional understanding of the impacts of the pandemic on communities, facilitating the development of more relevant messaging that considered both safety and the need for continued income-generating activities. Staff felt that an effective public health response was facilitated by strong in-country partnerships and BV's long-standing presence in communities.

CONTRIBUTION

The challenges in responding to the pandemic and in implementing and maintaining effective behaviour change are discussed. Although not an objective study of the effectiveness of the response or a comparison with other approaches, the lessons learned from this process are shared in the hope that they may inform responses to future shocks in low-income countries.

What determines the evolutionary trajectories of wild plant species? Approaches to the study of quantitative fitness-related traits

Wild plant species provide excellent examples of qualitative traits that evolve in response to environmental challenges (e.g., flower color, heavy metal tolerance, cyanogenesis, and male sterility). In addition to such discrete characters, a dazzling array of continuously distributed, quantitative traits are expressed at every phase of the life cycle. These traits are known or suspected to have evolved by natural selection because they are heritable, differ among populations or closely related taxa occupying distinct habitats, and have individual phenotypes associated with survival and reproductive success. This special issue [American Journal of Botany 109(11)] focuses on the tools and approaches for detecting or inferring the ecological and genetic factors contributing to changes in genetically based variation of quantitative traits within or among populations, or causing their divergence among taxa. The assembled articles use one or more of three primary approaches to detect the process or outcome of natural selection on morphological, life history, reproductive, chemical, and physiological quantitative traits: the analysis of phenotypic or artificially imposed selection to detect direct and indirect selection on traits whose function is well-understood; common garden experiments, including reciprocal transplants and "resurrection" experiments; and quantitative genetic analyses designed to detect and to estimate the environmental and genetic sources of phenotypic variation or to forecast short-term evolutionary change. Together, these articles examine and reveal the adaptive capacity of quantitative traits and the genetically based constraints that may limit their directional evolutionary change, thereby informing and testing inferences, hypotheses, and predictions concerning the evolutionary trajectories of wild plant species.

Assessing protected area vulnerability to climate change in a case study of South African national parks

Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness, adjacent land use, and financial resilience. Users reach a PA-specific vulnerability score and rank based on scoring of these categories. We applied the framework to South Africa's 19 national parks. Because the 19 parks are managed as a national network, we explored how resources might be best allocated to address climate change. Each park's importance to the network's biodiversity conservation and revenue generation was estimated and used to weight overall vulnerability scores and ranks. Park vulnerability profiles showed distinct combinations of potential impacts of climate change and adaptive capacities; the former had a greater influence on vulnerability. Mapungubwe National Park emerged as the most vulnerable to climate change, despite its relatively high adaptive capacity, largely owing to large projected changes in species and resource use. Table Mountain National Park scored the lowest in overall vulnerability. Climate change vulnerability rankings differed markedly once importance weightings were applied; Kruger National Park was the most vulnerable under both importance scenarios. Climate change vulnerability assessment is fundamental to effective adaptation planning. Our PA assessment tool is the only tool that quantifies PA vulnerability to climate change in a comparative index. It may be used in data-rich and data-poor contexts to prioritize resource allocation across PA networks and can be applied from local to global scales.

From coral reefs to Joshua trees: What ecological interactions teach us about the adaptive capacity of biodiversity in the Anthropocene

The pervasive loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene necessitates rapid assessments of ecosystems to understand how they will respond to anthropogenic environmental change. Many studies have sought to describe the adaptive capacity (AC) of individual species, a measure that encompasses a species’ ability to respond and adapt to change. Only those adaptive mechanisms that can be used over the next few decades (e.g. via novel interactions, behavioural changes, hybridization, migration, etc.) are relevant to the timescale set by the rapid changes of the Anthropocene. The impacts of species loss cascade through ecosystems, yet few studies integrate the capacity of ecological networks to adapt to change with the ACs of its species. Here, we discuss three ecosystems and how their ecological networks impact the AC of species and vice versa. A more holistic perspective that considers the AC of species with respect to their ecological interactions and functions will provide more predictive power and a deeper understanding of what factors are most important to a species’ survival. We contend that the AC of a species, combined with its role in ecosystem function and stability, must guide decisions in assigning ‘risk’ and triaging biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Engaging community in the translational process: Environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award Program hubs

This paper is part of the Environmental Scan of Adaptive Capacity and Preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) hubs, illuminating challenges, practices, and lessons learned related to CTSA hubs' efforts of engaging community partners to reduce the spread of the virus, address barriers to COVID-19 testing, identify treatments to improve health outcomes, and advance community participation in research. CTSA researchers, staff, and community partners collaborated to develop evidence-based, inclusive, accessible, and culturally appropriate strategies and resources helping community members stay healthy, informed, and connected during the pandemic. CTSA institutions have used various mechanisms to advance co-learning and co-sharing of knowledge, resources, tools, and experiences between academic professionals, patients, community partners, and other stakeholders. Forward-looking and adaptive decision-making structures are those that prioritize sustained relationships, mutual trust and commitment, ongoing communication, proactive identification of community concerns and needs, shared goals and decision making, as well as ample appreciation of community members and their contributions to translational research. There is a strong need for further community-engaged research and workforce training on how to build our collective and individual adaptive capacity to sustain and improve processes and outcomes of engagement with and by communities-in all aspects of translational science.

Overcoming Barriers to Successful Climate and Health Adaptation Practice: Notes from the Field

State and local public health agencies are at the forefront of planning and responding to the health challenges of climate hazards but face substantial barriers to effective climate and health adaptation amidst concurrent environmental and public health crises. To ensure successful adaptation, it is necessary to understand and overcome these barriers. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) provides funding to state and local health departments to anticipate and respond to health impacts from climate change using the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework. This paper explores the barriers to and enablers of successful adaptation projects among BRACE West CRSCI grantees, including Arizona, California, Oregon, and the city and county of San Francisco. The barriers included competing demands such as the COVID-19 pandemic, dependence on partners with similar challenges, staff and leadership turnover, uncertain and complex impacts on at-risk populations, and inadequate resources. The enablers included effective partnerships, leadership support, dedicated and skilled internal staff, and policy windows enabling institutional change and reprioritization. These findings highlight effective strategies in the field that state and local health departments may use to anticipate potential barriers and establish their work in an environment conducive to successful adaptation.

Integrating special and underserved populations in translational research: Environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) program hubs

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated health disparities and rendered them acutely more visible. Special and underrepresented populations need to be fully integrated into the translational research process from the very beginning and all the way through. This article presents findings and rapid analysis mini-case studies from the Environmental Scan (E-Scan) of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award hubs, specific to the goal of integrating special and vulnerable populations in different institutional research settings. In our discussion of the findings and case studies, we flexibly apply local adaptive capacity framework concepts and characteristics, and, whenever possible, we present ideas on how to enhance capacity in those areas, based on the challenges and practices identified through the E-Scan. Although the past year has recorded incredible achievements in vaccine development, clinical trials, diagnostics, and overall biomedical research, these successes continue to be hampered by our inability to turn them into achievements equally available and accessible to all populations.

The role of communication, building relationships, and adaptability in non-profit organisational capacity for health promotion

While the non-profit sector has an integral role in health promotion, it is unclear whether these organisations have the capacity for health promotion activities. This study aims to explore and describe capacity changes of a non-profit organisation during a 3-year community-based nutrition intervention. The non-profit organisation, with 3800 members throughout the state of Queensland, Australia, implemented a 3-year food literacy community-based intervention. A team of qualified nutritionists delivered the program in partnership with community-based volunteers. A separate aim of the intervention was to build capacity of the non-profit organisation for health promotion. A qualitative study was undertaken, using a social constructivist approach to explore organisational capacity changes longitudinally. All relevant participants including non-profit executive managers and nutritionists were included in the study (100% response rate). Data collection included semi-structured interviews (n = 17) at multiple intervention time points and document analysis of program newsletters (n = 21). Interview transcripts and documents were analysed separately using thematic and content analysis. Codes and categories between the two data sources were then compared and contrasted to build themes. Organisational capacity was predominantly influenced by four themes; ‘communicating’, ‘changing relationships’, ‘limited organisational learning’ and ‘adaptability and resistance to change’. Developing non-profit organisational health promotion capacity appears to require focusing on fostering communication processes and building positive relationships over time. Capacity changes of the non-profit organisation were not linear, fluctuating across various levels over time. Assessing non-profit organisational capacity to implement community interventions by describing adaptive capacity, may help researchers focus on the processes that influence capacity development.

Leadership and administration to advance translational science: Environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award Program hubs

COVID-19 reinforced the need for effective leadership and administration within Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) program hubs in response to a public health crisis. The speed, scale, and persistent evolution of the pandemic forced CTSA hubs to act quickly and remain nimble. The switch to virtual environments paired with supporting program operations, while ensuring the safety and well-being of their team, highlight the critical support role provided by leadership and administration. The pandemic also illustrated the value of emergency planning in supporting organizations' ability to quickly pivot and adapt. Lessons learned from the pandemic and from other cases of adaptive capacity and preparedness can aid program hubs in promoting and sustaining the overall capabilities of their organizations to prepare for future events.

Using informatics to advance translational science: Environmental scan of adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award Program hubs

As the USA and the rest of the world raced to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, years of investments from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences allowed for informatics services and resources at CTSA hubs to play a significant role in addressing the crisis. CTSA hubs partnered with local and regional partners to collect data on the pandemic, provide access to relevant patient data, and produce data dashboards to support decision-making. Coordinated efforts, like the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), helped to aggregate and harmonize clinical data nationwide. Even with significant informatics investments, some CTSA hubs felt unprepared in their ability to respond to the fast-moving public health crisis. Many hubs were forced to quickly evolve to meet local needs. Informatics teams expanded critical support at their institutions which included an engagement platform for clinical research, COVID-19 awareness and education activities in the community, and COVID-19 data dashboards. Continued investments in informatics resources will aid in ensuring that tools, resources, practices, and policies are aligned to meet local and national public health needs.

Adaptive capacity and preparedness of Clinical and Translational Science Award Program hubs: Overview of an environmental scan

The ability of research networks and individual institutions to effectively and efficiently prepare, respond, and adapt to emergent challenges is essential for the biomedical research enterprise. At the beginning of 2021, a special Working Group was formed by individuals in the Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) consortium and approved by the CTSA Steering Committee to explore "Adaptive Capacity and Preparedness (AC&P) of CTSA Hubs." The AC&P Working Group took a pragmatic Environmental Scan (E-Scan) approach of utilizing the diverse data that had been collected through existing mechanisms. The Local Adaptive Capacity framework was adapted to illustrate the interconnectedness of CTSA programs and services, while exposing how the demands of the pandemic forced them to quickly pivot and adapt. This paper presents a synopsis of the themes and lessons learned that emerged from individual sections of the E-Scan. Lessons learned from this study may improve our understanding of adaptive capacity and preparedness at different levels, as well as help strengthen the core service models, strategies, and foster innovation in clinical and translational science research.

An Approach to the Unified Conceptualization, Definition, and Characterization of Social Resilience

The purpose of this article is to offer a synthesis of the characteristics of social resilience, integrating the different approaches received from the social sciences. We propose to focus this conceptual framework as a previous and necessary step for the later study of the possible ways of promotion of this social resilience, that will help to strengthen the welfare and public health systems. The paper explores the difficulties in defining these characteristics, identifying their constituent elements. After this, the paper study the challenges to the future development of resilience models, showing the ways that offer some advances. Finally, we conclude that the social resilience must be conceived as a dynamic, multi-level, and evolutionary process if we are to help societies not only cope with adversity but also to adapt and transform themselves.

Adaptive plasticity in plant traits increases time to hydraulic failure under drought in a foundation tree

The viability of forest trees, in response to climate change-associated drought, will depend on their capacity to survive through genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in drought tolerance traits. Genotypes with enhanced plasticity for drought tolerance (adaptive plasticity) will have a greater ability to persist and delay the onset of hydraulic failure. By examining populations from different climate-origins grown under contrasting soil water availability, we tested for genotype (G), environment (E) and genotype-by-environment (G × E) effects on traits that determine the time it takes for saplings to desiccate from stomatal closure to 88% loss of stem hydraulic conductance (time to hydraulic failure, THF). Specifically, we hypothesized that: (i) THF is dependent on a G × E interaction, with longer THF for warm, dry climate populations in response to chronic water deficit treatment compared with cool, wet populations, and (ii) hydraulic and allometric traits explain the observed patterns in THF. Corymbia calophylla saplings from two populations originating from contrasting climates (warm-dry or cool-wet) were grown under well-watered and chronic soil water deficit treatments in large containers. Hydraulic and allometric traits were measured and then saplings were dried-down to critical levels of drought stress to estimate THF. Significant plasticity was detected in the warm-dry population in response to water-deficit, with enhanced drought tolerance compared with the cool-wet population. Projected leaf area and total plant water storage showed treatment variation, and minimum conductance showed significant population differences driving longer THF in trees from warm-dry origins grown in water-limited conditions. Our findings contribute information on intraspecific variation in key drought traits, including hydraulic and allometric determinants of THF. It highlights the need to quantify adaptive capacity in populations of forest trees in climate change-type drought to improve predictions of forest die-back.

A shared future: chemistry's engagement is essential for resilience of people and planet

Strengthening resilience-elasticity or adaptive capacity-is essential in responding to the wide range of natural hazards and anthropogenic changes humanity faces. Chemistry's roles in resilience are explored for the first time, with its technical capacities set in the wider contexts of cross-disciplinary working and the intersecting worlds of science, society and policy. The roles are framed by chemistry's contributions to the sustainability of people and planet, examined via the human security framework's four material aspects of food, health, economic and environmental security. As the science of transformation of matter, chemistry is deeply involved in these material aspects and in their interfacing with human security's three societal and governance aspects of personal, community and political security. Ultimately, strengthening resilience requires making choices about the present use of resources as a hedge against future hazards and adverse events, with these choices being co-determined by technical capacities and social and political will. It is argued that, to intensify its contributions to resilience, chemistry needs to take action along at least three major lines: (i) taking an integrative approach to the field of 'chemistry and resilience'; (ii) rethinking how the chemical industry operates; and (iii) engaging more with society and policy-makers.

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)-the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change-is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species' AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species' attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species' AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species' innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species' AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Heat Adaptive Capacity: What Causes the Differences Between Residents of Xiamen Island and Other Areas?

Extreme heat events caused by climate change have serious adverse effects on residents' health in many coastal metropolises in southeast China. Adaptive capacity (AC) is crucial to reduce heat vulnerability in the human-environment system. However, it is unclear whether changes in individual characteristics and socioeconomic conditions likely amplify or attenuate the impacts of residents' heat adaptive capacity (HAC) changes. Moreover, which public policies can be implemented by the authorities to improve the HAC of vulnerable groups remains unknown. We conducted a questionnaire survey of 630 residents of Xiamen, a typical coastal metropolis, in 2018. The effects of individual and household characteristics, and government actions on the residents' HAC were examined by using ordinal logistic regression analysis. Results show that the majority (48.10%) of Xiamen residents had a "medium" HAC level, followed by a "high" level (37.14%). On Xiamen Island, residents who settled locally for one-three years and spent less than one hour outdoors might report weaker HAC, and their HAC would not improve with increased air conditioning units in household. In other areas of Xiamen, residents with more rooms in their households, no educational experience, and building areas <50 m2 might report better HAC. Further, vulnerable groups, such as local residents and outdoor workers on Xiamen Island, people lacking educational experience and renters in other areas of Xiamen, showed better AC to hot weather than those in previous studies. Low-income groups should be given more attention by local governments and community groups as monthly household income played a positive role in improving Xiamen residents' HAC. Rational green spaces planning and cooling services, such as street sprinkling operations, provided by municipal departments can effectively bring benefits to Xiamen residents. Identification of basic conditions of AC has significant implications for practical promoting targeted measures or policies to reduce health damages and livelihood losses of urban residents during extreme heat events.

The macroecology of plant populations from local to global scales

Population ecologists develop theoretical and pragmatic knowledge of how and why populations change or remain stable, how life histories evolve and devise management strategies for populations of concern. However, forecasting the effects of global change or recommending management strategies is often urgent, requiring ecologists to work without detailed local evidence while using data and models from outside the focal location or species. Here we explore how the comparative ecology of populations, population macroecology, can be used to develop generalisations within and between species across different scales, using available demographic, environmental, life history, occurrence and trait data. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of using broad climatic variables and suitability inferred from probability of occupancy models to represent environmental variation in comparative analyses. We evaluate the contributions of traits, environment and their interaction as drivers of life history strategy. We propose that insights from life history theory, together with the adaptive capacity of populations and individuals, can inform on 'persist in place' vs 'shift in space' responses to changing conditions. As demographic data accumulate at landscape and regional scales for single species, and throughout plant phylogenies, we will have new opportunities for testing macroecological generalities within and across species.

A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Urbanites of Four Cities of India

Extreme heat and heat waves have been established as disasters which can lead to a great loss of life. Several studies over the years, both within and outside of India, have shown how extreme heat events lead to an overall increase in mortality. However, the impact of extreme heat, similar to other disasters, depends upon the vulnerability of the population. This study aims to assess the extreme heat vulnerability of the population of four cities with different characteristics across India. This cross-sectional study included 500 households from each city across the urban localities (both slum and non-slum) of Ongole in Andhra Pradesh, Karimnagar in Telangana, Kolkata in West Bengal and Angul in Odisha. Twenty-one indicators were used to construct a household vulnerability index to understand the vulnerability of the cities. The results have shown that the majority of the households fell under moderate to high vulnerability level across all the cities. Angul and Kolkata were found to be more highly vulnerable as compared to Ongole and Karimnagar. Further analysis also revealed that household vulnerability is more significantly related to adaptive capacity than sensitivity and exposure. Heat Vulnerability Index can help in identifying the vulnerable population and scaling up adaptive practices.

Rural arts entrepreneurs' placemaking - how 'entrepreneurial placemaking' explains rural creative hub evolution during COVID-19 lockdown

This article critically evaluates the development and impact of a new online 'dance practice' service in a rural creative hub Remote. The research asks: 'How does entrepreneurial placemaking contribute to the evolution of rural creative hubs during the COVID-19 pandemic?' To answer this question, the article critically evaluates the business activities of one artisan entrepreneur, applying placemaking and resilience. Using a case study strategy, this research employs online qualitative research. Creative hub development is explained as a result of 'entrepreneurial placemaking', forming the main contribution of this article. This term subsumes multi-layered exchanges. 'Entrepreneurial placemaking' is conceptualised as continuous becoming, and illustrated by Remote's adaption processes to lockdown phases. Remote is turned into a stage for digital placemaking during the COVID-19 lockdown via the 'open dance practice' service provided by a performance dance artist. Findings highlight that to enact entrepreneurial placemaking, creative professionals need to draw upon adaptive capacity, which includes the ability to develop exchange relationships and business-related digital skills. Peer-learning is a recommended solution for developing such digital skills across artist entrepreneurial communities. This article contributes to the ongoing conversation on the role of creative hubs for socio-economic development foregrounding the activities of hub users.

Repeated extreme heatwaves result in higher leaf thermal tolerances and greater safety margins

The frequency and severity of heatwave events are increasing, exposing species to conditions beyond their physiological limits. Species respond to heatwaves in different ways, however it remains unclear if plants have the adaptive capacity to successfully respond to hotter and more frequent heatwaves. We exposed eight tree populations from two climate regions grown under cool and warm temperatures to repeated heatwave events of moderate (40°C) and extreme (46°C) severity to assess adaptive capacity to heatwaves. Leaf damage and maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (F_v /F_m ) were significantly impacted by heatwave severity and growth temperatures, respectively; populations from a warm-origin avoided damage under moderate heatwaves compared to those from a cool-origin, indicating a degree of local adaptation. We found that plasticity to heatwave severity and repeated heatwaves contributed to enhanced thermal tolerance and lower leaf temperatures_, leading to greater thermal safety margins (thermal tolerance minus leaf temperature) in a second heatwave. Notably, while we show that adaptation and physiological plasticity are important factors affecting plant adaptive capacity to thermal stress, plasticity of thermal tolerances and thermal safety margins provides the opportunity for trees to persist among fluctuating heatwave exposures.

Metabolic Flexibility Is a Determinant of Breast Cancer Heterogeneity and Progression

Breast cancer progression is characterized by changes in cellular metabolism that contribute to enhanced tumour growth and adaptation to microenvironmental stresses. Metabolic changes within breast tumours are still poorly understood and are not as yet exploited for therapeutic intervention, in part due to a high level of metabolic heterogeneity within tumours. The metabolic profiles of breast cancer cells are flexible, providing dynamic switches in metabolic states to accommodate nutrient and energy demands and further aggravating the challenges of targeting metabolic dependencies in cancer. In this review, we discuss the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that contribute to metabolic heterogeneity of breast tumours. Next, we examine how metabolic flexibility, which contributes to the metabolic heterogeneity of breast tumours, can alter epigenetic landscapes and increase a variety of pro-tumorigenic functions. Finally, we highlight the difficulties in pharmacologically targeting the metabolic adaptations of breast tumours and provide an overview of possible strategies to sensitize heterogeneous breast tumours to the targeting of metabolic vulnerabilities.

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Supporting the adaptive capacity of species through more effective knowledge exchange with conservation practitioners

There is an imperative for conservation practitioners to help biodiversity adapt to accelerating environmental change. Evolutionary biologists are well-positioned to inform the development of evidence-based management strategies that support the adaptive capacity of species and ecosystems. Conservation practitioners increasingly accept that management practices must accommodate rapid environmental change, but harbour concerns about how to apply recommended changes to their management contexts. Given the interest from both conservation practitioners and evolutionary biologists in adjusting management practices, we believe there is an opportunity to accelerate the required changes by promoting closer collaboration between these two groups. We highlight how evolutionary biologists can harness lessons from other disciplines about how to foster effective knowledge exchange to make a substantive contribution to the development of effective conservation practices. These lessons include the following: (1) recognizing why practitioners do and do not use scientific evidence; (2) building an evidence base that will influence management decisions; (3) translating theory into a format that conservation practitioners can use to inform management practices; and (4) developing strategies for effective knowledge exchange. Although efforts will be required on both sides, we believe there are rewards for both practitioners and evolutionary biologists, not least of which is fostering practices to help support the long-term persistence of species.

The adaptive capacity of public space under COVID-19: Exploring urban design interventions through a sociotechnical systems approach

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a dramatic impact on the way in which the community interacts within public spaces. Consequently, the design of these urban environments requires new approaches. It is our view that Human Factors and Ergonomics approaches can be used to provide these insights. This article explores the opportunities for making public spaces safer and more accessible for community use under pandemic conditions. The study utilizes a sociotechnical systems model of an archetype public space, developed pre-COVID-19, to explore the infrastructure and activities that are impacted by the introduction of the virus to the public space system. The aim was to identify those elements of the system that are completely unavailable under pandemic conditions, those elements that become limited in use, and those which remained unaffected by the presence of the virus. The findings show that under pandemic conditions pre-COVID-19 public spaces were surprisingly resilient with proportionally few elements within the model completely unavailable. They also demonstrate that overall, the public spaces system, while still operating, is significantly constrained in achieving and optimizing community and individual health and well-being. The insertion of five (5) urban design interventions within the system model presented unique insights into the possibilities for optimizing adaptive capacity. These interventions revealed design opportunities across several levels of the systems model. Such insights are argued to assist in not only re-establishing community access under pandemic conditions but also more inclusive access to a broader range of the community under all conditions.

Psychological capital and climate change adaptation: Empirical evidence from smallholder farmers in South Africa

There are calls for better empirical models to inform climate change adaptation in smallholder agriculture. Hitherto adaptation studies have failed to comprehensively integrate non-cognitive behavioural factors (e.g. psychological capital), and there is also no common framework for measuring non-cognitive abilities of smallholder farmers. Hence, this study is the first attempt to assess how psychological capital affects climate change adaptation amongst smallholder farmers. The study estimated the multivariate probit regression model using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. The results show an association between some psychological capital indicators and smallholder adaptation decisions. Social networks, having multiple farming objectives, access to credit and the type of farmer (irrigators vs. non-irrigators) were also significant in determining smallholders' adaptation decisions. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders' endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. There is also a need for researchers to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Support should also be provided to communities facing higher risks of climate change adaptation. More focus should also be given to improve smallholder farmers' ability to adapt, including access to affordable credit. The role of social networks in information sharing remains critical, and hence their promotion should be prioritised. The findings on multiple objectives in farming were unique to climate change adaptation research, and hence the indicator should be considered in future similar studies.

Building a bridge between adaptive capacity and adaptive potential to understand responses to environmental change

Adaptive capacity is a topic at the forefront of environmental change research with roots in both social, ecological, and evolutionary science. It is closely related to the evolutionary biology concept of adaptive potential. In this systematic literature review, we: (1) summarize the history of these topics and related fields; (2) assess relationship(s) between the concepts among disciplines and the use of the terms in climate change research, and evaluate methodologies, metrics, taxa biases, and the geographic scale of studies; and (3) provide a synthetic conceptual framework to clarify concepts. Bibliometric analyses revealed the terms have been used most frequently in conservation and evolutionary biology journals, respectively. There has been a greater growth in studies of adaptive potential than adaptive capacity since 2001, but a greater geographical extent of adaptive capacity studies. Few studies include both, and use is often superficial. Our synthesis considers adaptive potential as one process contributing to adaptive capacity of complex systems, notes "sociological" adaptive capacity definitions include actions aimed at desired outcome (i.e., policies) as a system driver whereas "biological" definitions exclude such drivers, and suggests models of adaptive capacity require integration of evolutionary and social-ecological system components.

Temperature increase and its effects on fish stress physiology in the context of global warming

The capacity of fishes to cope with environmental variation is considered to be a main determinant of their fitness and is partly determined by their stress physiology. By 2100, global ocean temperature is expected to rise by 1-4°C, with potential consequences for stress physiology. Global warming is affecting animal populations worldwide through chronic temperature increases and an increase in the frequency of extreme heatwave events. As ectotherms, fishes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to global warming. Although little information is available about the effects of global warming on stress physiology in nature, multiple studies describe the consequences of temperature increases on stress physiology in controlled laboratory conditions, providing insight into what can be expected in the wild. Chronic temperature increase constitutes a physiological load that can alter the ability of fishes to cope with additional stressors, which might compromise their fitness. In addition, rapid temperature increases are known to induce acute stress responses in fishes and might be of ecological relevance in particular situations. This review summarizes knowledge about effects of temperature increases on the stress physiology of fishes and discusses these in the context of global warming.

Vulnerability of rural households to climate-induced shocks in Lokka Abaya district, Sidama zone, southern Ethiopia

This study was conducted in rural communities of Lokka Abaya district, Sidama zone, southern Ethiopia to assess vulnerability status of men and women households to climate-induced shocks and stress. This article is based on household survey, focus group discussion and key informant interviews. A total of 258 smallholder farmers were selected from three villages using stratified random sampling. A combination of social, economic and environmental indicators was employed to develop the vulnerability index of each household head and estimate quantitatively that is vulnerability is estimated as a function of adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity of households. The results indicated that farmers had poor access to public services including access to affordable credit, market, health services and climate information. The survey revealed that droughts, floods, soil erosion, pests and diseases were climate-related challenges in the study area. Regarding vulnerability of households to climate variability, results indicated that around 8.5% and 18.2% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were highly vulnerable whilst 41% and 45.5% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were moderately vulnerable. The results confirmed that 37.7% and 27.3% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were less vulnerable. The rest 12.8% men and 9% women were not vulnerable. Therefore, there is a need to enhance access to affordable credit, market, climate information, health, income diversification of farmers, soil and water conservation and afforestation of hilly areas if farmers need to be climate resilient.