Genomic Analysis of Demographic History and Ecological Niche Modeling in the Endangered Sumatran Rhinoceros Dicerorhinus sumatrensis

Computationally Efficient Demographic History Inference from Allele Frequencies with Supervised Machine Learning

Inferring past demographic history of natural populations from genomic data is of central concern in many studies across research fields. Previously, our group had developed dadi, a widely used demographic history inference method based on the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) and maximum composite-likelihood optimization. However, dadi's optimization procedure can be computationally expensive. Here, we present donni (demography optimization via neural network inference), a new inference method based on dadi that is more efficient while maintaining comparable inference accuracy. For each dadi-supported demographic model, donni simulates the expected AFS for a range of model parameters then trains a set of Mean Variance Estimation neural networks using the simulated AFS. Trained networks can then be used to instantaneously infer the model parameters from future genomic data summarized by an AFS. We demonstrate that for many demographic models, donni can infer some parameters, such as population size changes, very well and other parameters, such as migration rates and times of demographic events, fairly well. Importantly, donni provides both parameter and confidence interval estimates from input AFS with accuracy comparable to parameters inferred by dadi's likelihood optimization while bypassing its long and computationally intensive evaluation process. donni's performance demonstrates that supervised machine learning algorithms may be a promising avenue for developing more sustainable and computationally efficient demographic history inference methods.

Computationally efficient demographic history inference from allele frequencies with supervised machine learning

Inferring past demographic history of natural populations from genomic data is of central concern in many studies across research fields. Previously, our group had developed dadi, a widely used demographic history inference method based on the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) and maximum composite likelihood optimization. However, dadi's optimization procedure can be computationally expensive. Here, we developed donni (demography optimization via neural network inference), a new inference method based on dadi that is more efficient while maintaining comparable inference accuracy. For each dadi-supported demographic model, donni simulates the expected AFS for a range of model parameters then trains a set of Mean Variance Estimation neural networks using the simulated AFS. Trained networks can then be used to instantaneously infer the model parameters from future input data AFS. We demonstrated that for many demographic models, donni can infer some parameters, such as population size changes, very well and other parameters, such as migration rates and times of demographic events, fairly well. Importantly, donni provides both parameter and confidence interval estimates from input AFS with accuracy comparable to parameters inferred by dadi's likelihood optimization while bypassing its long and computationally intensive evaluation process. donni's performance demonstrates that supervised machine learning algorithms may be a promising avenue for developing more sustainable and computationally efficient demographic history inference methods.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Szechwan Rat Snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) and Its Response to Climate Change in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park

Climate change is a significant driver of changes in the distribution patterns of species and poses a threat to biodiversity, potentially resulting in species extinctions. Investigating the potential distribution of rare and endangered species is crucial for understanding their responses to climate change and for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem management. The Szechwan rat snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) is an endemic and endangered species co-distributed with giant pandas, and studying its potential distribution contributes to a better understanding of the distribution pattern of endangered species. In this study, we confirmed seven presence points of this species in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park, and selected eleven key factors to predict the potential distribution of E. perlacea under current and future scenarios using MaxEnt models. Our study consistently achieved AUC values exceeding 0.79, meeting the precision requirements of the models. The results indicated that the high potential distribution area of E. perlacea is mainly located near Yunwu mountain and the giant panda rewilding and reintroduction base, accounting for approximately 12% of the protected area. Moreover, we identified the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of E. perlacea as the distance from streams and the slope degree, with their contribution rates exceeding 41% and 31%, respectively. In comparison to the current scenario, the potential habitat range for E. perlacea did not show an overall reduction in the context of future climate scenarios. To ensure the long-term preservation of E. perlacea, it is advisable to validate its actual distribution based on the models' results. Particular attention should be given to safeguarding its core distribution areas and raising awareness among residents within the potential distribution range about the conservation of E. perlacea.

Small population of the largest water strider after the late Pleistocene and the implications for its conservation

Climate oscillation and its synergistic impacts on habitat fragmentation have been identified as threatening the survival of some extant species. However, the mechanisms by which semi-aquatic insects impacted by such events remain poorly understood. Herein, we studied the largest water strider in the world, Gigantometra gigas, to explore the effect of these two factors on its evolutionary history. The sequences of mitogenomic and nrDNA cluster were utilized to reconstruct phylogenetic relationship among G. gigas populations and its demographic history. Mitochondrial genes were separately reconstructed topologies of that populations and detected remarkable differences. We found that G. gigas populations conform to the isolation-by-distance model, and decline occurred at about 120 ka, which was probably influenced by the climate change during the late Pleistocene and eventually maintained a small effective population size (Ne) around 85,717. The populations in Guangdong Province of China are worthy of note in that they exhibit low genetic diversity, a small Ne around 18,899 individuals, and occupy an area with little suitable future habitat for G. gigas. This work recommends that conservation efforts are implemented to ensure the long-term survival of small G. gigas populations, and notes that further evaluation of their extinction risk under the impacts of human activities is required.

Harnessing the omics revolution to address the global biodiversity crisis

Human disturbances are altering global biodiversity in unprecedented ways. We identify three fundamental challenges underpinning our understanding of global biodiversity (namely discovery, loss, and preservation), and discuss how the omics revolution (e.g. genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and meta-omics) can help address these challenges. We also discuss how omics tools can illuminate the major drivers of biodiversity loss, including invasive species, pollution, urbanization, overexploitation, and climate change, with a special focus on highly diverse tropical environments. Although omics tools are transforming the traditional toolkit of biodiversity research, their application to addressing the current biodiversity crisis remains limited and may not suffice to offset current rates of biodiversity loss. Despite technical and logistical challenges, omics tools need to be fully integrated into global biodiversity research, and better strategies are needed to improve their translation into biodiversity policy and practice. It is also important to recognize that although the omics revolution can be considered the biologist's dream, socioeconomic disparity limits their application in biodiversity research.

Mitochondrial genome analysis, phylogeny and divergence time evaluation of Strixaluco (Aves, Strigiformes, Strigidae)

Background Prior research has shown that the European peninsulas were the main sources of Strixaluco colonisation of Northern Europe during the late glacial period. However, the phylogenetic relationship and the divergence time between S.aluco from Leigong Mountain Nature Reserve, Guizhou Province, China and the Strigiformes from overseas remains unclear. The mitochondrial genome structure of birds is a covalent double-chain loop structure that is highly conserved and, thus, suitable for phylogenetic analysis. This study examined the phylogenetic relationship and divergence time of Strix using the whole mitochondrial genome of S.aluco. New information In this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of Strixaluco, with a total length of 18,632 bp, is reported for the first time. A total of 37 genes were found, including 22 tRNAs, two rRNAs, 13 protein-coding genes and two non-coding control regions. Certain species of Tytoninae were used as out-group and PhyloSuite software was applied to build the ML-tree and BI-tree of Strigiformes. Finally, the divergence time tree was constructed using BEAST 2.6.7 software and the age of Miosurniadiurna fossil-bearing sediments (6.0-9.5 Ma) was set as internal correction point. The common ancestor of Strix was confirmed to have diverged during the Pleistocene (2.58-0.01 Ma). The combined action of the dramatic uplift of the Qinling Mountains in the Middle Pleistocene and the climate oscillation of the Pleistocene caused Strix divergence between the northern and southern parts of mainland China. The isolation of glacial-interglacial rotation and glacier refuge was the main reason for the divergence of Strixuralensis and S.aluco from their common ancestor during this period. This study provides a reference for the evolutionary history of S.aluco.

Consideration of genetic variation and evolutionary history in future conservation of Indian one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis)

Background

The extant members of the Asian rhinos have experienced severe population and range declines since Pleistocene through a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. The one-horned rhino is the only Asian species recovered from such conditions but most of the extant populations are reaching carrying capacity. India currently harbours ~ 83% of the global wild one-horned rhino populations distributed across seven protected areas. Recent assessments recommend reintroduction-based conservation approaches for the species, and implementation of such efforts would greatly benefit from detailed genetic assessments and evolutionary history of these populations. Using mitochondrial data, we investigated the phylogeography, divergence and demographic history of one-horned rhinos across its Indian range.

Results

We report the first complete mitogenome from all the extant Indian wild one-horned rhino populations (n = 16 individuals). Further, we identified all polymorphic sites and assessed rhino phylogeography (2531 bp mtDNA, n = 111 individuals) across India. Results showed 30 haplotypes distributed as three distinct genetic clades (F_st value 0.68–1) corresponding to the states of Assam (n = 28 haplotypes), West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh (both monomorphic). The reintroduced population of Uttar Pradesh showed maternal signatures of Chitwan National Park, Nepal. Mitochondrial phylogenomics suggests one-horned rhino diverged from its recent common ancestors ~ 950 Kya and different populations (Assam, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh/Nepal) coalesce at ~ 190–50 Kya, corroborating with the paleobiogeography history of the Indian subcontinent. Further, the demography analyses indicated historical decline in female effective population size ~ 300–200 Kya followed by increasing trends during ~ 110–60 Kya.

Conclusion

The phylogeography and phylogenomic outcomes suggest recognition of three ‘Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs)’ in Indian rhino. With ongoing genetic isolation of the current populations, future management efforts should focus on identifying genetically variable founder animals and consider periodic supplementation events while planning future rhino reintroduction programs in India. Such well-informed, multidisciplinary approach will be the only way to ensure evolutionary, ecological and demographic stability of the species across its range.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02045-2.

The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability

Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.

Analysis of Conservation Gaps and Landscape Connectivity for Snow Leopard in Qilian Mountains of China

Human modification and habitat fragmentation have a substantial influence on large carnivores, which need extensive, contiguous habitats to survive in a landscape. The establishment of protected areas is an effective way to offer protection for carnivore populations by buffering them from anthropogenic impacts. In this study, we used MaxEnt to model habitat suitability and to identify conservation gaps for snow leopard (Panthera uncia) in the Qilian Mountains of China, and then assessed the impact of highways/railways and their corridors on habitat connectivity using a graph-based landscape connectivity model. Our results indicated that the study area had 51,137 km2 of potentially suitable habitat for snow leopards and that there were four protection gaps outside of Qilian Mountain National Park. The findings revealed that the investigated highway and railway resulted in a decrease in connectivity at a regional scale, and that corridor development might enhance regional connectivity, which strengthens the capacity of central habitat patches to act as stepping stones and improve connections between western and eastern habitat patches. This study emphasized the need for assessing the impact of highways and railways, as well as their role in corridor development, on species’ connectivity. Based on our results, we provide some detailed recommendations for designing protection action plans for effectively protecting snow leopard habitat and increasing habitat connectivity.

Island Biogeography Revisited: Museomics Reveals Affinities of Shelf Island Birds Determined by Bathymetry and Paleo-Rivers, Not by Distance to Mainland

Island biogeography is one of the most powerful subdisciplines of ecology: its mathematical predictions that island size and distance to mainland determine diversity have withstood the test of time. A key question is whether these predictions follow at a population-genomic level. Using rigorous ancient-DNA protocols, we retrieved approximately 1,000 genomic markers from approximately 100 historic specimens of two Southeast Asian songbird complexes from across the Sunda Shelf archipelago collected 1893-1957. We show that the genetic affinities of populations on small shelf islands defy the predictions of geographic distance and appear governed by Earth-historic factors including the position of terrestrial barriers (paleo-rivers) and persistence of corridors (Quaternary land bridges). Our analyses suggest that classic island-biogeographic predictors may not hold well for population-genomic dynamics on the thousands of shelf islands across the globe, which are exposed to dynamic changes in land distribution during Quaternary climate change.

Parallel genomic responses to historical climate change and high elevation in East Asian songbirds

Parallel evolution can be expected among closely related taxa exposed to similar selective pressures. However, parallelism is typically stronger at the phenotypic level, while genetic solutions to achieve these phenotypic similarities may differ. For polygenic traits, the availability of standing genetic variation (i.e., heterozygosity) may influence such genetic nonparallelism. Here, we examine the extent to which high-elevation adaptation is parallel-and whether the level of parallelism is affected by heterozygosity-by analyzing genomes of 19 Paridae species distributed across East Asia with a dramatic east-west elevation gradient. We find that western highlands endemic parids have consistently lower levels of heterozygosity-likely the result of late-Pleistocene demographic contraction-than do parids found exclusively in eastern lowlands, which remained unglaciated during the late Pleistocene. Three widespread species (east to west) have high levels of heterozygosity similar to that observed in eastern species, although their western populations are less variable than eastern ones. Comparing genomic responses to extreme environments of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we find that the most differentiated genomic regions between each high-elevation taxon and its low-elevation relative are significantly enriched for genes potentially related to the oxygen transport cascade and/or thermogenesis. Despite no parallelism at particular genes, high similarity in gene function is found among comparisons. Furthermore, parallelism is not higher in more heterozygous widespread parids than in highland endemics. Thus, in East Asian parids, parallel functional response to extreme elevation appears to rely on different genes, with differences in heterozygosity having no effect on the degree of genetic parallelism.

Domestication obscures genomic estimates of population history

Domesticated species are valuable models to examine phenotypic evolution, and knowledge on domestication history is critical for understanding the trajectories of evolutionary changes. Sequentially Markov Coalescent models are often used to infer domestication history. However, domestication practices may obscure the signal left by population history, affecting demographic inference. Here we assembled the genomes of a recently domesticated species-the society finch-and its parent species-the white-rumped munia-to examine its domestication history. We applied genomic analyses to two society finch breeds and white-rumped munias to test whether domestication of the former resulted from inbreeding or hybridization. The society finch showed longer and more runs of homozygosity and lower genomic heterozygosity than the white-rumped munia, supporting an inbreeding origin in the former. Blocks of white-rumped munia and other ancestry in society finch genomes showed similar genetic distance between the two taxa, inconsistent with the hybridization origin hypothesis. We then applied two Sequentially Markov Coalescent models-psmc and smc++-to infer the demographic histories of both. Surprisingly, the two models did not reveal a recent population bottleneck, but instead the psmc model showed a specious, dramatic population increase in the society finch. Subsequently, we used simulated genomes based on an array of demographic scenarios to demonstrate that recent inbreeding, not hybridization, caused the distorted psmc population trajectory. Such analyses could have misled our understanding of the domestication process. Our findings stress caution when interpreting the histories of recently domesticated species inferred by psmc, arguing that these histories require multiple analyses to validate.

Not out of the woods yet: Signatures of the prolonged negative genetic consequences of a population bottleneck in a rapidly re-expanding wader, the black-faced spoonbill Platalea minor

The long-term persistence of a population which has suffered a bottleneck partly depends on how historical demographic dynamics impacted its genetic diversity and the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Here we provide genomic evidence for the genetic effect of a recent population bottleneck in the endangered black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) after its rapid population recovery. Our data suggest that the bird's effective population size, N_e , had been relatively stable (7500-9000) since 22,000 years ago; however, a recent brief yet severe bottleneck (N_e  = 20) which we here estimated to occur around the 1940s wiped out >99% of its historical N_e in roughly three generations. Despite a >15-fold population recovery since 1988, we found that black-faced spoonbill population has higher levels of inbreeding (7.4 times more runs of homozygosity) than its sister species, the royal spoonbill (P. regia), which is not thought to have undergone a marked population contraction. Although the two spoonbills have similar levels of genome-wide genetic diversity, our results suggest that selection on more genes was relaxed in the black-faced spoonbill; moreover individual black-faced spoonbills carry more putatively deleterious mutations (Grantham's score > 50), and may therefore express more deleterious phenotypic effects than royal spoonbills. Here we demonstrate the value of using genomic indices to monitor levels of genetic erosion, inbreeding and mutation load in species with conservation concerns. To mitigate the prolonged negative genetic effect of a population bottleneck, we recommend that all possible measures should be employed to maintain population growth of a threatened species.

Life-history traits and habitat availability shape genomic diversity in birds: implications for conservation

More than 25% of species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are threatened with extinction. Understanding how environmental and biological processes have shaped genomic diversity may inform management practices. Using 68 extant avian species, we parsed the effects of habitat availability and life-history traits on genomic diversity over time to provide a baseline for conservation efforts. We used published whole-genome sequence data to estimate overall genomic diversity as indicated by historical long-term effective population sizes (Ne) and current genomic variability (H), then used environmental niche modelling to estimate Pleistocene habitat dynamics for each species. We found that Ne and H were positively correlated with habitat availability and related to key life-history traits (body mass and diet), suggesting the latter contribute to the overall genomic variation. We found that H decreased with increasing species extinction risk, suggesting that H may serve as a leading indicator of demographic trends related to formal IUCN conservation status in birds. Our analyses illustrate that genome-wide summary statistics estimated from sequence data reflect meaningful ecological attributes relevant to species conservation.

Demographic history and divergence of sibling grouse species inferred from whole genome sequencing reveal past effects of climate change

Background

The boreal forest is one of the largest biomes on earth, supporting thousands of species. The global climate fluctuations in the Quaternary, especially the ice ages, had a significant influence on the distribution of boreal forest, as well as the divergence and evolution of species inhabiting this biome. To understand the possible effects of on-going and future climate change it would be useful to reconstruct past population size changes and relate such to climatic events in the past. We sequenced the genomes of 32 individuals from two forest inhabiting bird species, Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) and Chinese Grouse (T. sewerzowi) and three representatives of two outgroup species from Europe and China.

Results

We estimated the divergence time of Chinese Grouse and Hazel Grouse to 1.76 (0.46–3.37) MYA. The demographic history of different populations in these two sibling species was reconstructed, and showed that peaks and bottlenecks of effective population size occurred at different times for the two species. The northern Qilian population of Chinese Grouse became separated from the rest of the species residing in the south approximately 250,000 years ago and have since then showed consistently lower effective population size than the southern population. The Chinese Hazel Grouse population had a higher effective population size at the peak of the Last Glacial Period (approx. 300,000 years ago) than the European population. Both species have decreased recently and now have low effective population sizes.

Conclusions

Combined with the uplift history and reconstructed climate change during the Quaternary, our results support that cold-adapted grouse species diverged in response to changes in the distribution of palaeo-boreal forest and the formation of the Loess Plateau. The combined effects of climate change and an increased human pressure impose major threats to the survival and conservation of both species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01921-7.

Ancient and modern genomes unravel the evolutionary history of the rhinoceros family

Only five species of the once-diverse Rhinocerotidae remain, making the reconstruction of their evolutionary history a challenge to biologists since Darwin. We sequenced genomes from five rhinoceros species (three extinct and two living), which we compared to existing data from the remaining three living species and a range of outgroups. We identify an early divergence between extant African and Eurasian lineages, resolving a key debate regarding the phylogeny of extant rhinoceroses. This early Miocene (∼16 million years ago [mya]) split post-dates the land bridge formation between the Afro-Arabian and Eurasian landmasses. Our analyses also show that while rhinoceros genomes in general exhibit low levels of genome-wide diversity, heterozygosity is lowest and inbreeding is highest in the modern species. These results suggest that while low genetic diversity is a long-term feature of the family, it has been particularly exacerbated recently, likely reflecting recent anthropogenic-driven population declines.

Population dynamics of caribou shaped by glacial cycles before the last glacial maximum

Pleistocene glacial cycles influenced the diversification of high‐latitude wildlife species through recurrent periods of range contraction, isolation, divergence, and expansion from refugia and subsequent admixture of refugial populations. We investigate population size changes and the introgressive history of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in western Canada using 33 whole genome sequences coupled with larger‐scale mitochondrial data. We found that a major population expansion of caribou occurred starting around 110,000 years ago (kya), the start of the last glacial period. Additionally, we found effective population sizes of some caribou reaching ~700,000 to 1,000,000 individuals, one of the highest recorded historical effective population sizes for any mammal species thus far. Mitochondrial analyses dated introgression events prior to the LGM dating to 20–30 kya and even more ancient at 60 kya, coinciding with colder periods with extensive ice coverage, further demonstrating the importance of glacial cycles and events prior to the LGM in shaping demographic history. Reconstructing the origins and differential introgressive history has implications for predictions on species responses under climate change. Our results have implications for other whole genome analyses using pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) analyses, as well as highlighting the need to investigate pre‐LGM demographic patterns to fully reconstruct the origin of species diversity, especially for high‐latitude species.

Repetitive genomic regions and the inference of demographic history

Inference of demographic histories using whole-genome datasets has provided insights into diversification, adaptation, hybridization, and plant-pathogen interactions, and stimulated debate on the impact of anthropogenic interventions and past climate on species demography. However, the impact of repetitive genomic regions on these inferences has mostly been ignored by masking of repeats. We use the Populus trichocarpa genome (Pop_tri_v3) to show that masking of repeat regions leads to lower estimates of effective population size (Ne) in the distant past in contrast to an increase in Ne estimates in recent times. However, in human datasets, masking of repeats resulted in lower estimates of Ne at all time points. We demonstrate that repeats affect demographic inferences using diverse methods like PSMC, MSMC, SMC++, and the Stairway plot. Our genomic analysis revealed that the biases in Ne estimates were dependent on the repeat class type and its abundance in each atomic interval. Notably, we observed a weak, yet consistently significant negative correlation between the repeat abundance of an atomic interval and the Ne estimates for that interval, which potentially reflects the recombination rate variation within the genome. The rationale for the masking of repeats has been that variants identified within these regions are erroneous. We find that polymorphisms in some repeat classes occur in callable regions and reflect reliable coalescence histories (e.g., LTR Gypsy, LTR Copia). The current demography inference methods do not handle repeats explicitly, and hence the effect of individual repeat classes needs careful consideration in comparative analysis. Deciphering the repeat demographic histories might provide a clear understanding of the processes involved in repeat accumulation.

An analysis of threats, strategies, and opportunities for African rhinoceros conservation

The complexity and magnitude of threats to black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinoceros conservation in Africa have triggered global concerns and actions. In this study, we analyzed (i) threats to rhinoceros conservation including external shocks, (ii) historical rhinoceros conservation strategies in Zimbabwe and Africa, more broadly, and (iii) opportunities for enhanced rhinoceros conservation in Zimbabwe and Africa. A literature search from 1975 to 2020 was carried out using a predefined search protocol, involving a number of filters based on a set of keywords to balance search sensitivity with specificity. A total of 193 articles, which were most relevant to key themes on rhinoceros conservation, were used in this study. The common threats to rhinoceros conservation identified in this paper include poaching, habitat fragmentation and loss, international trade in illegal rhino products, and external shocks such as global financial recessions and pandemics. Cascading effects emanating from these threats include small and isolated populations, which are prone to genetic, demographic, and environmental uncertainties. Rhinoceros conservation strategies being implemented include education and awareness campaigns, better equipped and more antipoaching efforts, use of innovative systems and technologies, dehorning, and enhancing safety nets, and livelihoods of local communities. Opportunities for rhinoceros conservation vary across the spatial scale, and these include (a) a well-coordinated stakeholder and community involvement, (b) strategic meta-population management, (c) enhancing law enforcement initiatives through incorporating real-time surveillance technologies and intruder detection sensor networks for crime detection, (d) scaling up demand reduction awareness campaigns, and (e) developing more certified wildlife crime and forensic laboratories, and information repository for international corporation.

Genomic insights into the conservation status of the world's last remaining Sumatran rhinoceros populations

Small populations are often exposed to high inbreeding and mutational load that can increase the risk of extinction. The Sumatran rhinoceros was widespread in Southeast Asia, but is now restricted to small and isolated populations on Sumatra and Borneo, and most likely extinct on the Malay Peninsula. Here, we analyse 5 historical and 16 modern genomes from these populations to investigate the genomic consequences of the recent decline, such as increased inbreeding and mutational load. We find that the Malay Peninsula population experienced increased inbreeding shortly before extirpation, which possibly was accompanied by purging. The populations on Sumatra and Borneo instead show low inbreeding, but high mutational load. The currently small population sizes may thus in the near future lead to inbreeding depression. Moreover, we find little evidence for differences in local adaptation among populations, suggesting that future inbreeding depression could potentially be mitigated by assisted gene flow among populations.

Interspecific Gene Flow and the Evolution of Specialization in Black and White Rhinoceros

Africa's black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinoceros are closely related sister-taxa that evolved highly divergent obligate browsing and grazing feeding strategies. Although their precursor species Diceros praecox and Ceratotherium mauritanicum appear in the fossil record ∼5.2 Ma, by 4 Ma both were still mixed feeders, and were even spatiotemporally sympatric at several Pliocene sites in what is today Africa's Rift Valley. Here, we ask whether or not D. praecox and C. mauritanicum were reproductively isolated when they came into Pliocene secondary contact. We sequenced and de novo assembled the first annotated black rhinoceros reference genome and compared it with available genomes of other black and white rhinoceros. We show that ancestral gene flow between D. praecox and C. mauritanicum ceased sometime between 3.3 and 4.1 Ma, despite conventional methods for the detection of gene flow from whole genome data returning false positive signatures of recent interspecific migration due to incomplete lineage sorting. We propose that ongoing Pliocene genetic exchange, for up to 2 My after initial divergence, could have potentially hindered the development of obligate feeding strategies until both species were fully reproductively isolated, but that the more severe and shifting paleoclimate of the early Pleistocene was likely the ultimate driver of ecological specialization in African rhinoceros.

Population genomic, climatic and anthropogenic evidence suggest the role of human forces in endangerment of green peafowl (Pavo muticus)

Both anthropogenic impacts and historical climate change could contribute to population decline and species extinction, but their relative importance is still unclear. Emerging approaches based on genomic, climatic and anthropogenic data provide a promising analytical framework to address this question. This study applied such an integrative approach to examine potential drivers for the endangerment of the green peafowl (Pavo muticus). Several demographic reconstructions based on population genomes congruently retrieved a drastic population declination since the mid-Holocene. Furthermore, a comparison between historical and modern genomes suggested genetic diversity decrease during the last 50 years. However, climate-based ecological niche models predicted stationary general range during these periods and imply the little impact of climate change. Further analyses suggested that human disturbance intensities were negatively correlated with the green peafowl's effective population sizes and significantly associated with its survival status (extirpation or persistence). Archaeological and historical records corroborate the critical role of humans, leaving the footprint of low genomic diversity and high inbreeding in the survival populations. This study sheds light on the potential deep-time effects of human disturbance on species endangerment and offers a multi-evidential approach in examining underlying forces for population declines.

Gene Flow in Volant Vertebrates: Species Biology, Ecology and Climate Change

Gene flow, the exchange of genetic material between populations is an important biological process, which shapes and maintains biodiversity. The successful movement of individuals between populations depends on multiple factors determined by species biology and the environment. One of the most important factors regulating gene flow is the ability to move, and flight allows individuals to easily move across geographical barriers. Volant vertebrates are found on some of the remotest islands and contribute significantly to the biodiversity and ecosystem. The availability of next-generation sequencing data for non-model animals has substantially improved our understanding of gene flow and its consequences, allowing us to look at fine-scale patterns. However, most of our understanding regarding gene flow comes from the temperate regions and the Neotropics. The lack of studies from species-rich Asia is striking. In this review, we outline the importance of gene flow and the factors affecting gene flow, especially for volant vertebrates. We especially discuss research studies from tropical biomes of South and Southeast Asia, highlight the lacuna in literature and provide an outline for future studies in this species-rich region.

Contrasting Trends of Population Size Change for Two Eurasian Owlet Species—Athene brama and Glaucidium radiatum From South Asia Over the Late Quaternary

Climatic oscillations over the Quaternary have had a lasting impact on species’ distribution, evolutionary history, and genetic composition. Many species show dramatic population size changes coinciding with the last glacial period. However, the extent and direction of change vary across biogeographic regions, species-habitat associations, and species traits. Here we use genomic data to assess population size changes over the late Quaternary using the Pairwise Sequential Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) approach in two Eurasian Owlet species—the Spotted Owlet, Athene brama, and the Jungle Owlet, Glaucidium radiatum. While Spotted Owlets are typically associated with open habitats, Jungle Owlets are found in deciduous forests and scrublands. We find that the effective population size for the Spotted Owlet increased after the Interglacial period till the Last Glacial Maxima and subsequently declined toward the Mid-Holocene. On the other hand, effective population size estimates for the Jungle Owlet increased gradually throughout this period. These observations are in line with climatic niche model-based predictions for range size change for both species from a previous study and suggest that habitat associations at the local scale are important in determining responses to past climatic and vegetational changes. The Spotted Owlet result also aligns well with the expectation of open habitat expansion during the arid Glacial Maxima, whereas for the Jungle Owlet the contrasting expectation does not hold. Therefore, assessing the impacts of glacial history on population trajectories of multiple species with different habitat associations is necessary to understand the impacts of past climate on South Asian taxa.

Are population isolations and declines a threat to island endemic water striders? A lesson from demographic and niche modelling of Metrocoris esakii (Hemiptera: Gerridae)

Genetic stochasticity and bottlenecking in the course of Pleistocene glaciations have been identified as threatening the survival of local endemics. However, the mechanisms by which local endemic species balance the influences of these two events remain poorly understood. Here, we generated a double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) data set, mined mitochondrial sequences and constructed ecological niche models for the island endemic water strider Metrocoris esakii (Hemiptera: Gerridae). We found that M. esakii comprised three divergent lineages (i.e., north, central and south) isolated by geographical barriers and generally experienced population declines with the constriction of suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Further demographic model testing and stairway plots revealed a history of recent gene flow among the neighbouring lineages and rapid recovery at the end of the LGM, indicating that M. esakii at least had the potential for an adaptive response to population fragmentation and bottlenecking. The northern lineage did not show genetic bottlenecking during the LGM, which was probably due to its large effective population size (N_e ) from migration, which improved its adaptive potential. Relative to the ddRAD-seq data set, the demographic results based on mitochondrial sequences were less conclusive, showing weak differentiation and oversimplified demographic trajectories for the three genetic lineages. Overall, this study provides some degree of optimism for the survival of island endemic water striders from a demographic perspective, but further evaluation of their extinction risk under the impacts of human activities is required.

Niches of nine mangrove species in a Sonneratia apetala-colonized area of Dongzhai Harbor, Hainan Island, China

The distribution of mangroves is influenced by the environment. We aimed to understand the ecological adaptability of various mangrove species within the range of the exotic species, Sonneratia apetala Buch.-Ham., in Dongzhai Harbor, Hainan Island, China. We used three niche breadth indexes (Simpson, Levins, and Shannon-Weiner) and two niche overlap indexes (Pianka and Levins) to quantitatively determine the niche characteristics of nine mangrove species. The results showed that the order of the niche breadth values of mangrove species was as follows: Aegiceras corniculatum (Linn.) Blanco > Kandelia obovata Sheue et al. > Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Poir. > Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. Hailanci > S. apetala > S. caseolaris (L.) Engl. > Rhizophora stylosa Griff > Ceriops tagal (Perr.) C. B. Rob. > B. sexangula (Lour.) Poir. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that the niche breadth of each population was significantly correlated with the importance value of the population in the whole sample (R1 = R2 = 0.771, R3 = 0.644, p < .05). The nine mangrove species were divided into three groups by Bray-Curtis cluster analysis; the groups were similar to the distribution of mangrove species in the natural state as determined by tide level. Niche similarity analysis showed that the niche similarity of most mangroves ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 and that the species pairs A. corniculatum-B. gymnorrhiza, A. corniculatum-Avicennia marina, and K. obovata-S. caseolaris were characterized by large niche similarity ratios. Although it had a moderate niche breadth, S. apetala had a relatively broad niche overlap with mangroves in the mid- and low-tide zones (S. caseolaris, A. corniculatum, K. obovata, and Avicennia marina), a moderate overlap with B. gymnorrhiza and R. stylosa, only a slight overlap with C. tagal, and no overlap with B. sexangular. There was no obvious linear relationship between niche width and niche overlap of mangroves. Due to its inefficiency in utilizing certain resources and relatively high degree of resource selection, it seems likely that S. apetala will not pose a threat to the survival of native plants, let alone completely replace native species.

Pre-extinction Demographic Stability and Genomic Signatures of Adaptation in the Woolly Rhinoceros

Ancient DNA has significantly improved our understanding of the evolution and population history of extinct megafauna. However, few studies have used complete ancient genomes to examine species responses to climate change prior to extinction. The woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) was a cold-adapted megaherbivore widely distributed across northern Eurasia during the Late Pleistocene and became extinct approximately 14 thousand years before present (ka BP). While humans and climate change have been proposed as potential causes of extinction [1-3], knowledge is limited on how the woolly rhinoceros was impacted by human arrival and climatic fluctuations [2]. Here, we use one complete nuclear genome and 14 mitogenomes to investigate the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros leading up to its extinction. Unlike other northern megafauna, the effective population size of woolly rhinoceros likely increased at 29.7 ka BP and subsequently remained stable until close to the species' extinction. Analysis of the nuclear genome from a ∼18.5-ka-old specimen did not indicate any increased inbreeding or reduced genetic diversity, suggesting that the population size remained steady for more than 13 ka following the arrival of humans [4]. The population contraction leading to extinction of the woolly rhinoceros may have thus been sudden and mostly driven by rapid warming in the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. Furthermore, we identify woolly rhinoceros-specific adaptations to arctic climate, similar to those of the woolly mammoth. This study highlights how species respond differently to climatic fluctuations and further illustrates the potential of palaeogenomics to study the evolutionary history of extinct species.

Impacts of the Toba eruption and montane forest expansion on diversification in Sumatran parachuting frogs (Rhacophorus)

Catastrophic events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have profound impacts on the demographic histories of resident taxa. Due to its presumed effect on biodiversity, the Pleistocene eruption of super-volcano Toba has received abundant attention. We test the effects of the Toba eruption on the diversification, genetic diversity, and demography of three co-distributed species of parachuting frogs (Genus Rhacophorus) on Sumatra. We generate target-capture data (~950 loci and ~440,000 bp) for three species of parachuting frogs and use these data paired with previously generated double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRADseq) data to estimate population structure and genetic diversity, to test for population size changes using demographic modelling, and to estimate the temporal clustering of size change events using a full-likelihood Bayesian method. We find that populations around Toba exhibit reduced genetic diversity compared with southern populations, and that northern populations exhibit a shift in effective population size around the time of the eruption (~80 kya). However, we infer a stronger signal of expansion in southern populations around ~400 kya, and at least two of the northern populations may have also expanded at this time. Taken together, these findings suggest that the Toba eruption precipitated population declines in northern populations, but that the demographic history of these three species was also strongly impacted by mid-Pleistocene forest expansion during glacial periods. We propose local rather than regional effects of the Toba eruption, and emphasize the dynamic nature of diversification on the Sunda Shelf.

Chromosomal-level genome assembly of the scimitar-horned oryx: Insights into diversity and demography of a species extinct in the wild

Captive populations provide a valuable insurance against extinctions in the wild. However, they are also vulnerable to the negative impacts of inbreeding, selection and drift. Genetic information is therefore considered a critical aspect of conservation management. Recent developments in sequencing technologies have the potential to improve the outcomes of management programmes; however, the transfer of these approaches to applied conservation has been slow. The scimitar-horned oryx (Oryx dammah) is a North African antelope that has been extinct in the wild since the early 1980s and is the focus of a large-scale and long-term reintroduction project. To enable the selection of suitable founder individuals, facilitate post-release monitoring and improve captive breeding management, comprehensive genomic resources are required. Here, we used 10X Chromium sequencing together with Hi-C contact mapping to develop a chromosomal-level genome assembly for the species. The resulting assembly contained 29 chromosomes with a scaffold N50 of 100.4 Mb, and displayed strong chromosomal synteny with the cattle genome. Using resequencing data from six additional individuals, we demonstrated relatively high genetic diversity in the scimitar-horned oryx compared to other mammals, despite it having experienced a strong founding event in captivity. Additionally, the level of diversity across populations varied according to management strategy. Finally, we uncovered a dynamic demographic history that coincided with periods of climate variation during the Pleistocene. Overall, our study provides a clear example of how genomic data can uncover valuable insights into captive populations and contributes important resources to guide future management decisions of an endangered species.

Genomic consequences of population decline in critically endangered pangolins and their demographic histories

Pangolins are among the most critically endangered animals due to heavy poaching and worldwide trafficking. However, their demographic histories and the genomic consequences of their recent population declines remain unknown. We generated high-quality de novo reference genomes for critically endangered Malayan (Manis javanica, MJ) and Chinese (M. pentadactyla, MP) pangolins and re-sequencing population genomic data from 74 MJs and 23 MPs. We recovered the population identities of illegally traded pangolins and previously unrecognized genetic populations that should be protected as evolutionarily distinct conservation units. Demographic reconstruction suggested environmental changes have resulted in a population size fluctuation of pangolins. Additionally, recent population size declines due to human activities have resulted in an increase in inbreeding and genetic load. Deleterious mutations were enriched in genes related to cancer/diseases and cholesterol homeostasis, which may have increased their susceptibility to diseases and decreased their survival potential to adapt to environmental changes and high-cholesterol diets. This comprehensive study provides not only high-quality pangolin reference genomes, but also valuable information concerning the driving factors of long-term population size fluctuations and the genomic impact of recent population size declines due to human activities, which is essential for pangolin conservation management and global action planning.

Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China

The population of wild musk deer (Moschus spp.) has declined in recent decades and reached an endangered status in China. Global climate change may drive the extinction rate of these species. To understand the implications of global warming on the future potential space utilization and migration direction of musk deer, both the maximum entropy model and barycenter migration analysis were utilized. Five global climate models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios were considered to simulate the distribution of six species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results indicated that the suitable habitat area would decrease over the next 30 to 50 years. These decreases of suitable habitat were more significant for the Siberian musk deer (reduced by 4.98% of the land area of China), the forest musk deer (1.04%), the black musk deer (0.86%), and the Himalayan musk deer (1.82%) compared with the other two musk deer species. The area with suitable climate for the Siberian musk deer will migrate to the southwest (to higher elevations) while areas suitable for the Alpine musk deer, the Himalayan musk deer, and the Anhui musk deer would all migrate to the northeast (to higher latitudes). However, the forest musk deer and the black musk deer will not migrate in the same direction, but will mainly migrate to the west and the north, respectively. These results provide data in support for in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation, natural reserve community, and bio-corridor construction of China's musk deer species in response to global warming.

Contemporary Demographic Reconstruction Methods Are Robust to Genome Assembly Quality: A Case Study in Tasmanian Devils

Reconstructing species’ demographic histories is a central focus of molecular ecology and evolution. Recently, an expanding suite of methods leveraging either the sequentially Markovian coalescent (SMC) or the site-frequency spectrum has been developed to reconstruct population size histories from genomic sequence data. However, few studies have investigated the robustness of these methods to genome assemblies of varying quality. In this study, we first present an improved genome assembly for the Tasmanian devil using the Chicago library method. Compared with the original reference genome, our new assembly reduces the number of scaffolds (from 35,975 to 10,010) and increases the scaffold N90 (from 0.101 to 2.164 Mb). Second, we assess the performance of four contemporary genomic methods for inferring population size history (PSMC, MSMC, SMC++, Stairway Plot), using the two devil genome assemblies as well as simulated, artificially fragmented genomes that approximate the hypothesized demographic history of Tasmanian devils. We demonstrate that each method is robust to assembly quality, producing similar estimates of Ne when simulated genomes were fragmented into up to 5,000 scaffolds. Overall, methods reliant on the SMC are most reliable between ∼300 generations before present (gbp) and 100 kgbp, whereas methods exclusively reliant on the site-frequency spectrum are most reliable between the present and 30 gbp. Our results suggest that when used in concert, genomic methods for reconstructing species’ effective population size histories 1) can be applied to nonmodel organisms without highly contiguous reference genomes, and 2) are capable of detecting independently documented effects of historical geological events.

Genetic Structure and Diversity Among Historic and Modern Populations of the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis)

The Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis), once widespread across Southeast Asia, now consists of as few as 30 individuals within Sumatra and Borneo. To aid in conservation planning, we sequenced 218 bp of control region mitochondrial (mt) DNA, identifying 17 distinct mitochondrial haplotypes across modern (N = 13) and museum (N = 26) samples. Museum specimens from Laos and Myanmar had divergent mtDNA, consistent with the placement of western mainland rhinos into the distinct subspecies D. s. lasiotis (presumed extinct). Haplotypes from Bornean rhinos were highly diverse, but dissimilar from those of other regions, supporting the distinctiveness of the subspecies D. s. harrissoni. Rhinos from Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia shared mtDNA haplotypes, consistent with their traditional placement into a single subspecies D. s sumatrensis. Modern samples of D. s. sumatrensis were genotyped at 18 microsatellite loci. Rhinos within Sumatra formed 2 sub-populations, likely separated by the Barisan Mountains, though with only modest genetic differentiation between them. There are so few remaining Sumatran rhinoceros that separate management strategies for subspecies or subpopulations may not be viable, while each surviving rhino pedigree is likely to retain alleles found in no other individuals. Given the low population size and low reproductive potential of Sumatran rhinos, rapid genetic erosion is inevitable, though an under-appreciated concern is the potential for fixation of harmful genetic variants. Both concerns underscore 2 overriding priorities for the species: 1) translocation of wild rhinos to ex situ facilities, and 2) collection and storage of gametes and cell lines from every surviving captive and wild individual.

The Sumatran rhinoceros was extirpated from mainland East Asia by hunting and habitat loss

The sequencing and analysis of the Sumatran rhinoceros genome provides vital data for understanding the history of the subspecies in Sumatra [1], but not for reconstructing the history of the population on the mainland after the two were separated by rising seas in the early Holocene. Evidence from zooarchaeology, texts and artifacts makes clear that the Holocene range of the Sumatran rhinoceros extended all the way from the tropics to the temperate Yellow River Valley of North China (35° North), and that humans have extirpated the species from most of its range. While the name 'Sumatran' suggests that these are tropical animals, in fact they are the only extant hairy rhinoceros, which presumably protected them from cold, and are the most closely related of all living rhinoceroses to the extinct cold-adapted woolly rhinoceros [2].

Fluctuating fortunes: genomes and habitat reconstructions reveal global climate-mediated changes in bats' genetic diversity

Over the last approximately 2.6 Myr, Earth's climate has been dominated by cyclical ice ages that have profoundly affected species' population sizes, but the impact of impending anthropogenic climate change on species' extinction potential remains a worrying problem. We investigated 11 bat species from different taxonomic, ecological and geographical backgrounds using combined information from palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions and genomes to analyse biotic impacts of historic climate change. We discover tightly correlated fluctuations between species' historic distribution and effective population size, identify frugivores as particularly susceptible to global warming, pinpoint large insectivores as having overall low effective population size and flag the onset of the Holocene (approx. 10-12 000 years ago) as the period with the generally lowest effective population sizes across the last approximately 1 Myr. Our study shows that combining genomic and palaeoclimatological approaches reveals effects of climatic shifts on genetic diversity and may help predict impacts of future climate change.

Complete genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines show responses to climate fluctuations but no evidence for genomic erosion prior to extinction

Human intervention, pre-human climate change (or a combination of both), as well as genetic effects, contribute to species extinctions. While many species from oceanic islands have gone extinct due to direct human impacts, the effects of pre-human climate change and human settlement on the genomic diversity of insular species and the role that loss of genomic diversity played in their extinctions remains largely unexplored. To address this question, we sequenced whole genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines, the huia (Heteralocha acutirostris) and South Island kōkako (Callaeas cinereus). Both species showed similar demographic trajectories throughout the Pleistocene. However, the South Island kōkako continued to decline after the last glaciation, while the huia experienced some recovery. Moreover, there was no indication of inbreeding resulting from recent mating among closely related individuals in either species. This latter result indicates that population fragmentation associated with forest clearing by Maōri may not have been strong enough to lead to an increase in inbreeding and exposure to genomic erosion. While genomic erosion may not have directly contributed to their extinctions, further habitat fragmentation and the introduction of mammalian predators by Europeans may have been an important driver of extinction in huia and South Island kōkako.

Inference of population history using coalescent HMMs: review and outlook

Studying how diverse human populations are related is of historical and anthropological interest, in addition to providing a realistic null model for testing for signatures of natural selection or disease associations. Furthermore, understanding the demographic histories of other species is playing an increasingly important role in conservation genetics. A number of statistical methods have been developed to infer population demographic histories using whole-genome sequence data, with recent advances focusing on allowing for more flexible modeling choices, scaling to larger data sets, and increasing statistical power. Here we review coalescent hidden Markov models, a powerful class of population genetic inference methods that can utilize linkage disequilibrium information effectively. We highlight recent advances, give advice for practitioners, point out potential pitfalls, and present possible future research directions.