Emergent properties in the responses of tropical corals to recurrent climate extremes

Making Predictions Using Poorly Identified Mathematical Models

Many commonly used mathematical models in the field of mathematical biology involve challenges of parameter non-identifiability. Practical non-identifiability, where the quality and quantity of data does not provide sufficiently precise parameter estimates is often encountered, even with relatively simple models. In particular, the situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not is often encountered. In this work we apply a recent likelihood-based workflow, called Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA), to non-identifiable models for the first time. The PWA workflow addresses identifiability, parameter estimation, and prediction in a unified framework that is simple to implement and interpret. Previous implementations of the workflow have dealt with idealised identifiable problems only. In this study we illustrate how the PWA workflow can be applied to both structurally non-identifiable and practically non-identifiable models in the context of simple population growth models. Dealing with simple mathematical models allows us to present the PWA workflow in a didactic, self-contained document that can be studied together with relatively straightforward Julia code provided on GitHub . Working with simple mathematical models allows the PWA workflow prediction intervals to be compared with gold standard full likelihood prediction intervals. Together, our examples illustrate how the PWA workflow provides us with a systematic way of dealing with non-identifiability, especially compared to other approaches, such as seeking ad hoc parameter combinations, or simply setting parameter values to some arbitrary default value. Importantly, we show that the PWA workflow provides insight into the commonly-encountered situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not, allowing us to explore how uncertainty in some parameters, and combinations of parameters, regardless of their identifiability status, influences model predictions in a way that is insightful and interpretable.

Including environmental and climatic considerations for sustainable coral reef restoration

Coral reefs provide ecosystem benefits to millions of people but are threatened by rapid environmental change and ever-increasing human pressures. Restoration is becoming a priority strategy for coral reef conservation, yet implementation remains challenging and it is becoming increasingly apparent that indirect conservation and restoration approaches will not ensure the long-term sustainability of coral reefs. The important role of environmental conditions in restoration practice are currently undervalued, carrying substantial implications for restoration success. Giving paramount importance to environmental conditions, particularly during the pre-restoration planning phase, has the potential to bring about considerable improvements in coral reef restoration and innovation. This Essay argues that restoration risk may be reduced by adopting an environmentally aware perspective that gives historical, contemporary, and future context to restoration decisions. Such an approach will open up new restoration opportunities with improved sustainability that have the capacity to dynamically respond to environmental trajectories.

Risk classification of low-lying coral reef islands and their exposure to climate threats

The bio-physical responses of low-lying coral islands to climate change are of concern. These islands exist across a broad range of bio-physical conditions, and vulnerabilities to rising and warming seas, ocean acidification and increased storminess. We propose a risk-based classification that scores 6 island eco-morphometric attributes and 6 bio-physical ocean/climate conditions from recent open-access data, to assign islands with respect to 5 risk classes (Very Low, Low, Moderate, High and Very High). The potential responses of 56 coral islands in Australia's jurisdiction (Coral Sea, NW Shelf and NE Indian Ocean) to climate change is considered with respect to their bio-physical attributes and eco-morphometrics. None of the islands were classed as Very Low risk, while 8 were classed as Low (14.3 %), 34 were Moderate (60.7 %), 11 were High (19.6 %), and 3 were Very High (5.4 %). Islands in the Very High risk class (located on the NW Shelf) are most vulnerable due to their small size (mean 10 Ha), low elevation (mean 2.6 m MSL), angular/elongated shape, unvegetated state, below average pH (mean 8.05), above average rates of sea-level rise (SLR; mean 4.6 mm/yr), isolation from other islands, and frequent tropical storms and marine heatwaves. In contrast, islands in the Low (and Very Low) risk class are less vulnerable due to their large size (mean 127 Ha), high elevation (mean 8.5 m MSL), sub-angular/round shape, vegetated state, near average pH (mean 8.06), near average SLR rates (mean 3.9 mm/yr), proximity to adjacent islands, and infrequent cyclones and marine heatwaves. Our method provides a risk matrix to assess coral island vulnerability to current climate change related risks and supports future research on the impacts of projected climate change scenarios. Findings have implications for communities living on coral islands, associated ecosystem services and coastal States that base their legal maritime zones on these islands.

Marine heatwaves in the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea: their mechanisms and impacts on shallow and mesophotic coral ecosystems

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) World Heritage Area and adjacent Coral Sea Marine Park are under serious threat from global climate change. This study used Daily Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) data to identify major marine heatwaves (MHWs) that have occurred in this region over the last three decades (1992-2022). We then used Himawari-8 (H-8) SST data to map significant MHW events that occurred between 2015 and 2022. We investigated the mechanisms underlying the MHWs, assessed thier impact on shallow and mesophotic coral reef ecosystems and identified potential coral refugia. MHWs in this region have increased in frequency, intensity and spatial extent. El Niño, especially when it is in phase with positive Indian Ocean Dipole, was the key remote driver leading to intense MHWs. However, the more recent strong MHWs (e.g., 2017 and 2022) occurred in the abscence of these climatic events, signifying the impacts of long-term climate change and local drivers. We also found that reduced wind speed and shoaling mixed layer depth, often together with reduced cloudiness, were the main local drivers pre-conditioning these MHWs. Anomalous air-sea heat flux into the ocean, mainly controlled by shortwave solar radiation (cloudiness) and latent heat flux (wind), was the most constant contributor to the 2015-16 and 2019-20 MHW events. However, local oceanographic dynamics, especially horizontal advection and turbulent mixing, played important roles in MHW heat budgets. This study confirmed that shallow-water coral bleaching severity was positively related to the cumulative MHW intensity in the 2015-16 and 2019-20 MHW events. We identified shallow reefs along the path of the North Queensland Current as potential coral refugia from bleaching because of the cooler waters upwelled from the ocean current. We also found that, except during weather events such as tropical cyclones, mesophotic reefs in the Coral Sea Marine Park may be less susceptible to severe bleaching as the MHWs were more confined within the shallow mixed layer.

Hot spots of bleaching in massive Porites coral colonies

Coral bleaching events have become more frequent and severe due to ocean warming. While the large-scale impacts of bleaching events are well-known, there is growing recognition of the importance of small-scale spatial variation in bleaching and survival probability of individual coral colonies. By quantifying bleaching in 108 massive Porites colonies spread across Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, during the 2016 bleaching event, we investigated how hydrodynamic exposure levels and colony size contribute to local variability in bleaching prevalence and extent. Our results revealed that exposed locations were the least impacted by bleaching, while lagoonal areas exhibited the highest prevalence of bleaching and colony-level bleaching extents. Such patterns of bleaching could be due to prolonged exposure to warm water in the lagoon. These findings highlight the importance of considering location-specific factors when assessing coral health and emphasize the vulnerability of corals in lagoonal habitats to rapid and/or prolonged elevated temperatures.

Coral recruitment: patterns and processes determining the dynamics of coral populations

Coral recruitment describes the addition of new individuals to populations, and it is one of the most fundamental demographic processes contributing to population size. As many coral reefs around the world have experienced large declines in coral cover and abundance, there has been great interest in understanding the factors causing coral recruitment to vary and the conditions under which it can support community resilience. While progress in these areas is being facilitated by technological and scientific advances, one of the best tools to quantify recruitment remains the humble settlement tile, variants of which have been in use for over a century. Here I review the biology and ecology of coral recruits and the recruitment process, largely as resolved through the use of settlement tiles, by: (i) defining how the terms 'recruit' and 'recruitment' have been used, and explaining why loose terminology has impeded scientific advancement; (ii) describing how coral recruitment is measured and why settlement tiles have value for this purpose; (iii) summarizing previous efforts to review quantitative analyses of coral recruitment; (iv) describing advances from hypothesis-driven studies in determining how refuges, seawater flow, and grazers can modulate coral recruitment; (v) reviewing the biology of small corals (i.e. recruits) to understand better how they respond to environmental conditions; and (vi) updating a quantitative compilation of coral recruitment studies extending from 1974 to present, thus revealing long-term global declines in density of recruits, juxtaposed with apparent resilience to coral bleaching. Finally, I review future directions in the study of coral recruitment, and highlight the need to expand studies to deliver taxonomic resolution, and explain why time series of settlement tile deployments are likely to remain pivotal in quantifying coral recruitment.

Marine heatwaves modulate the genotypic and physiological responses of reef-building corals to subsequent heat stress

Back-to-back marine heatwaves in 2016 and 2017 resulted in severe coral bleaching and mortality across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Encouragingly, some corals that survived these events exhibit increased bleaching resistance and may represent thermally tolerant populations that can better cope with ocean warming. Using the GBR as a natural laboratory, we investigated whether a history of minimal (Heron Island) or severe (Lizard Island) coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017 equates to stress tolerance in a successive heatwave (2020). We examined the genetic diversity, physiological performance, and trophic plasticity of juvenile (<10 cm) and adult (>25 cm) corals of two common genera (Pocillopora and Stylophora). Despite enduring greater cumulative heat stress (6.3°C week-1 vs. 5.6°C week-1), corals that experienced the third marine heatwave in 5 years (Lizard) exhibited twice as high survival and visual bleaching thresholds compared to corals that had not experienced significant bleaching in >10 years (Heron). Surprisingly, only one shared host-Symbiodiniaceae association was uncovered between locations (Stylophora pistillata-Cladocopium "C8 group") and there was no genetic overlap in Pocillopora-Cladocopium partnerships, suggesting turnover in species composition from recent marine heatwaves. Corals within the species complex Pocillopora that survived the 2016 and 2017 marine heatwaves at Lizard Island were the most resilient, exhibiting three times greater calcification rates than conspecifics at Heron Island. Further, surviving corals (Lizard) had distinct isotopic niches, lower host carbon, and greater host protein, while conspecifics that had not experienced recent bleaching (Heron) had two times greater symbiont carbon content, suggesting divergent trophic strategies that influenced survival (i.e., greater reliance on heterotrophy vs. symbiont autotrophy, respectively). Ultimately, while corals may experience less bleaching and survive repeated thermal stress events, species-specific trade-offs do occur, leaving open many questions related to the long-term health and recovery of coral reef ecosystems in the face of intensifying marine heatwaves.

Canopy-forming macroalgae can adapt to marine heatwaves

Seawater warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a major role on the fragmentation and loss of coastal marine habitats. Understanding the resilience and potential for adaptation of marine habitat forming species to ocean warming becomes pivotal for predicting future changes, improving present conservation and restoration strategies. In this study, a thermo-tolerance experiment was conducted to investigate the physiological effects of short vs long MHWs occurring at different timing on recruits of Gongolaria barbata, a canopy-forming species widespread in the Mediterranean Sea. The recruits were collected from a population of the Marine Protected Area of Porto Cesareo (Apulia, Ionian Sea). Recruits length, PSII maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), photosynthetic pigments content, concentrations of antioxidant compounds and total antioxidant activity (DPPH) were the response variables measured during the experiment. Univariate asymmetrical analyses highlighted that all physiological variables were significantly affected by both the duration and the timing of the thermal stress with the only exception of recruits length. The higher Fv/Fm ratio, chlorophylls and carotenoids content, and antioxidant compounds concentration in recruits exposed to long-term stress likely indicate an acclimation of thalli to the new environmental conditions and hence, an increased tolerance of G. barbata to thermal stress. Results also suggest that the mechanisms of adaptation activated in response to thermal stress did not affect the natural growth rate of recruits. Overall, this study supports the hypothesis that canopy-forming species can adapt to future climate conditions demonstrating a physiological acclimation to cope with MHWs, providing strong evidence that adaptation of marine species to thermal stress is more frequent than expected, this contributing to design tailored conservation and restoration strategies for marine coastal habitat.

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Genomic exploration of coral-associated bacteria: identifying probiotic candidates to increase coral bleaching resilience in Galaxea fascicularis

BACKGROUND

Reef-building corals are acutely threatened by ocean warming, calling for active interventions to reduce coral bleaching and mortality. Corals associate with a wide diversity of bacteria which can influence coral health, but knowledge of specific functions that may be beneficial for corals under thermal stress is scant. Under the oxidative stress theory of coral bleaching, bacteria that scavenge reactive oxygen (ROS) or nitrogen species (RNS) are expected to enhance coral thermal resilience. Further, bacterial carbon export might substitute the carbon supply from algal photosymbionts, enhance thermal resilience and facilitate bleaching recovery. To identify probiotic bacterial candidates, we sequenced the genomes of 82 pure-cultured bacteria that were isolated from the emerging coral model Galaxea fascicularis.

RESULTS

Genomic analyses showed bacterial isolates were affiliated with 37 genera. Isolates such as Ruegeria, Muricauda and Roseovarius were found to encode genes for the synthesis of the antioxidants mannitol, glutathione, dimethylsulfide, dimethylsulfoniopropionate, zeaxanthin and/or β-carotene. Genes involved in RNS-scavenging were found in many G. fascicularis-associated bacteria, which represents a novel finding for several genera (including Pseudophaeobacter). Transporters that are suggested to export carbon (semiSWEET) were detected in seven isolates, including Pseudovibrio and Roseibium. Further, a range of bacterial strains, including strains of Roseibium and Roseovarius, revealed genomic features that may enhance colonisation and association of bacteria with the coral host, such as secretion systems and eukaryote-like repeat proteins.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work provides an in-depth genomic analysis of the functional potential of G. fascicularis-associated bacteria and identifies novel combinations of traits that may enhance the coral's ability to withstand coral bleaching. Identifying and characterising bacteria that are beneficial for corals is critical for the development of effective probiotics that boost coral climate resilience. Video Abstract.

Spatial metabolomics for symbiotic marine invertebrates

Microbial symbionts frequently localize within specific body structures or cell types of their multicellular hosts. This spatiotemporal niche is critical to host health, nutrient exchange, and fitness. Measuring host-microbe metabolite exchange has conventionally relied on tissue homogenates, eliminating dimensionality and dampening analytical sensitivity. We have developed a mass spectrometry imaging workflow for a soft- and hard-bodied cnidarian animal capable of revealing the host and symbiont metabolome in situ, without the need for a priori isotopic labelling or skeleton decalcification. The mass spectrometry imaging method provides critical functional insights that cannot be gleaned from bulk tissue analyses or other presently available spatial methods. We show that cnidarian hosts may regulate microalgal symbiont acquisition and rejection through specific ceramides distributed throughout the tissue lining the gastrovascular cavity. The distribution pattern of betaine lipids showed that once resident, symbionts primarily reside in light-exposed tentacles to generate photosynthate. Spatial patterns of these metabolites also revealed that symbiont identity can drive host metabolism.

Symbiont Identity Impacts the Microbiome and Volatilome of a Model Cnidarian-Dinoflagellate Symbiosis

The symbiosis between cnidarians and dinoflagellates underpins the success of reef-building corals in otherwise nutrient-poor habitats. Alterations to symbiotic state can perturb metabolic homeostasis and thus alter the release of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). While BVOCs can play important roles in metabolic regulation and signalling, how the symbiotic state affects BVOC output remains unexplored. We therefore characterised the suite of BVOCs that comprise the volatilome of the sea anemone Exaiptasia diaphana ('Aiptasia') when aposymbiotic and in symbiosis with either its native dinoflagellate symbiont Breviolum minutum or the non-native symbiont Durusdinium trenchii. In parallel, the bacterial community structure in these different symbiotic states was fully characterised to resolve the holobiont microbiome. Based on rRNA analyses, 147 unique amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were observed across symbiotic states. Furthermore, the microbiomes were distinct across the different symbiotic states: bacteria in the family Vibrionaceae were the most abundant in aposymbiotic anemones; those in the family Crocinitomicaceae were the most abundant in anemones symbiotic with D. trenchii; and anemones symbiotic with B. minutum had the highest proportion of low-abundance ASVs. Across these different holobionts, 142 BVOCs were detected and classified into 17 groups based on their chemical structure, with BVOCs containing multiple functional groups being the most abundant. Isoprene was detected in higher abundance when anemones hosted their native symbiont, and dimethyl sulphide was detected in higher abundance in the volatilome of both Aiptasia-Symbiodiniaceae combinations relative to aposymbiotic anemones. The volatilomes of aposymbiotic anemones and anemones symbiotic with B. minutum were distinct, while the volatilome of anemones symbiotic with D. trenchii overlapped both of the others. Collectively, our results are consistent with previous reports that D. trenchii produces a metabolically sub-optimal symbiosis with Aiptasia, and add to our understanding of how symbiotic cnidarians, including corals, may respond to climate change should they acquire novel dinoflagellate partners.

Legacy effects of anthropogenic disturbances modulate dynamics in the world's coral reefs

Rapidly changing conditions alter disturbance patterns, highlighting the need to better understand how the transition from pulse disturbances to more persistent stress will impact ecosystem dynamics. We conducted a global analysis of the impacts of 11 types of disturbances on reef integrity using the rate of change of coral cover as a measure of damage. Then, we evaluated how the magnitude of the damage due to thermal stress, cyclones, and diseases varied among tropical Atlantic and Indo-Pacific reefs and whether the cumulative impact of thermal stress and cyclones was able to modulate the responses of reefs to future events. We found that reef damage largely depends on the condition of a reef before a disturbance, disturbance intensity, and biogeographic region, regardless of the type of disturbance. Changes in coral cover after thermal stress events were largely influenced by the cumulative stress of past disturbances and did not depend on disturbance intensity or initial coral cover, which suggests that an ecological memory is present within coral communities. In contrast, the effect of cyclones (and likely other physical impacts) was primarily modulated by the initial reef condition and did not appear to be influenced by previous impacts. Our findings also underscore that coral reefs can recover if stressful conditions decrease, yet the lack of action to reduce anthropogenic impacts and greenhouse gas emissions continues to trigger reef degradation. We uphold that evidence-based strategies can guide managers to make better decisions to prepare for future disturbances.

Continent-wide declines in shallow reef life over a decade of ocean warming

Human society is dependent on nature^1,2, but whether our ecological foundations are at risk remains unknown in the absence of systematic monitoring of species' populations³. Knowledge of species fluctuations is particularly inadequate in the marine realm⁴. Here we assess the population trends of 1,057 common shallow reef species from multiple phyla at 1,636 sites around Australia over the past decade. Most populations decreased over this period, including many tropical fishes, temperate invertebrates (particularly echinoderms) and southwestern Australian macroalgae, whereas coral populations remained relatively stable. Population declines typically followed heatwave years, when local water temperatures were more than 0.5 °C above temperatures in 2008. Following heatwaves^5,6, species abundances generally tended to decline near warm range edges, and increase near cool range edges. More than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibited high extinction risk, with rapidly declining populations trapped by deep ocean barriers, preventing poleward retreat as temperatures rise. Greater conservation effort is needed to safeguard temperate marine ecosystems, which are disproportionately threatened and include species with deep evolutionary roots. Fundamental among such efforts, and broader societal needs to efficiently adapt to interacting anthropogenic and natural pressures, is greatly expanded monitoring of species' population trends^7,8.

Advancing coral microbiome manipulation to build long-term climate resilience

Coral reefs house one-third of all marine species and are of high cultural and socioeconomic importance. However, coral reefs are under dire threat from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. Climate change is causing coral bleaching, the breakdown of the symbiosis between the coral host and its algal symbionts, often resulting in coral mortality and the deterioration of these valuable ecosystems. While it is essential to counteract the root causes of climate change, it remains urgent to develop coral restoration and conservation methods that will buy time for coral reefs. The manipulation of the bacterial microbiome that is associated with corals has been suggested as one intervention to improve coral climate resilience. Early coral microbiome-manipulation studies, which are aimed at enhancing bleaching tolerance, have shown promising results, but the inoculated bacteria did generally not persist within the coral microbiome. Here, we highlight the importance of long-term incorporation of bacterial inocula into the microbiome of target corals, as repeated inoculations will be too costly and not feasible on large reef systems like the Great Barrier Reef. Therefore, coral microbiome-manipulation studies need to prioritise approaches that can provide sustained coral climate resilience.

Asynchrony in coral community structure contributes to reef-scale community stability

Many aspects of global ecosystem degradation are well known, but the ecological implications of variation in these effects over scales of kilometers and years have not been widely considered. On tropical coral reefs, kilometer-scale variation in environmental conditions promotes a spatial mosaic of coral communities in which spatial insurance effects could enhance community stability. To evaluate whether these effects are important on coral reefs, we explored variation over 2006-2019 in coral community structure and environmental conditions in Moorea, French Polynesia. We studied coral community structure at a single site with fringing, back reef, and fore reef habitats, and used this system to explore associations among community asynchrony, asynchrony of environmental conditions, and community stability. Coral community structure varied asynchronously among habitats, and variation among habitats in the daily range in seawater temperature suggested it could be a factor contributing to the variation in coral community structure. Wave forced seawater flow connected the habitats and facilitated larval exchange among them, but this effect differed in strength among years, and accentuated periodic connectivity among habitats at 1-7 year intervals. At this site, connected habitats harboring taxonomically similar coral assemblages and exhibiting asynchronous population dynamics can provide insurance against extirpation, and may promote community stability. If these effects apply at larger spatial scale, then among-habitat community asynchrony is likely to play an important role in determining reef-wide coral community resilience.

Metabolomic signatures of corals thriving across extreme reef habitats reveal strategies of heat stress tolerance

Anthropogenic stressors continue to escalate worldwide, driving unprecedented declines in reef environmental conditions and coral health. One approach to better understand how corals can function in the future is to examine coral populations that thrive within present day naturally extreme habitats. We applied untargeted metabolomics (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS)) to contrast metabolite profiles of Pocillopora acuta colonies from hot, acidic and deoxygenated mangrove environments versus those from adjacent reefs. Under ambient temperatures, P. acuta predominantly associated with endosymbionts of the genera Cladocopium (reef) or Durusdinium (mangrove), exhibiting elevated metabolism in mangrove through energy-generating and biosynthesis pathways compared to reef populations. Under transient heat stress, P. acuta endosymbiont associations were unchanged. Reef corals bleached and exhibited extensive shifts in symbiont metabolic profiles (whereas host metabolite profiles were unchanged). By contrast, mangrove populations did not bleach and solely the host metabolite profiles were altered, including cellular responses in inter-partner signalling, antioxidant capacity and energy storage. Thus mangrove P. acuta populations resist periodically high-temperature exposure via association with thermally tolerant endosymbionts coupled with host metabolic plasticity. Our findings highlight specific metabolites that may be biomarkers of heat tolerance, providing novel insight into adaptive coral resilience to elevated temperatures.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

The Costs and Benefits of Environmental Memory for Reef-Building Corals Coping with Recurring Marine Heatwaves

Marine heatwaves are occurring more frequently as climate change intensifies, resulting in global mass coral bleaching events several times per decade. Despite the time between marine heatwaves decreasing, there is evidence that reef-building corals can develop increased bleaching resistance across repetitive marine heatwaves. This phenomenon of acclimatization via environmental memory may be an important strategy to ensure coral persistence; however, we still understand very little about the apparent acclimatization or, conversely, sensitization (i.e., stress accumulation or weakening) of reef-building corals to consecutive heatwaves and its implications for the trajectory and resilience of coral reefs. Here, we highlight that not only will some corals become stress hardened via marine heatwaves, but many other individuals will suffer sensitization during repeat heatwaves that further exacerbates their stress response during repeat events and depresses fitness. Under current and predicted climate change, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the acclimatization vs. sensitization trajectories of different species and individuals on the reef, as well as identify whether changes in bleaching susceptibility relates to physiological acclimatization, trade-offs with other biological processes, and ultimately coral persistence in the Anthropocene.

Shifts in predator behaviour following climate induced disturbance on coral reefs

Coral reefs are increasingly ecologically destabilized across the globe due to climate change. Behavioural plasticity in corallivore behaviour and short-term trophic ecology in response to bleaching events may influence the extent and severity of coral bleaching and subsequent recovery potential, yet our understanding of these interactions in situ remains unclear. Here, we investigated interactions between corallivory and coral bleaching during a severe high thermal event (10.3-degree heating weeks) in Belize. We found that parrotfish changed their grazing behaviour in response to bleaching by selectively avoiding bleached Orbicella spp. colonies regardless of bleaching severity or coral size. For bleached corals, we hypothesize that this short-term respite from corallivory may temporarily buffer coral energy budgets by not redirecting energetic resources to wound healing, and may therefore enable compensatory nutrient acquisition. However, colonies that had previously been heavily grazed were also more susceptible to bleaching, which is likely to increase mortality risk. Thus, short-term respite from corallivory during bleaching may not be sufficient to functionally rescue corals during prolonged bleaching. Such pairwise interactions and behavioural shifts in response to disturbance may appear small scale and short term, but have the potential to fundamentally alter ecological outcomes, especially in already-degraded ecosystems that are vulnerable and sensitive to change.

Learning from the past is not enough to survive present and future bleaching threshold temperatures

In the past decade, the frequency of mass coral bleaching events has increased due to seawater temperature anomalies persisting for longer periods. Coral survival from temperature anomalies has been based on how each species in each location responds to stress, which is unique to individual species and may be due to the way stressful experiences accumulate through time in the form of ecological and physiological memory. A deeper understanding of ecological and physiological memory in corals is necessary to understand their survival strategies into the future. Laboratory experiments can help us simulate seawater temperatures experienced by corals in the past and compare their responses to those of the present and future. In this study, we sampled corals with different life history traits from one location perturbed by seawater temperature incursions (variable site) and from a second, relatively undisturbed location (stable site). We sampled across two seasons to observe the responses to bleaching threshold temperatures in the past (1998-29 °C), present (2018-31 °C), and future (2050-33 °C). Corals were healthy at 29 °C and 31 °C, but a fast-growing, temperature-susceptible coral species experienced high mortality at 33 °C compared to a slow-growing, temperature-resistant coral species. Moreover, corals from the variable site and during the spring season fared better under temperature stress. The results of this study provide insight into the possible role of life-history traits on coral's response to seasons and locations in terms of memory to long-term and short-term thermal anomalies and climate change.

Symbioses are restructured by repeated mass coral bleaching

Survival of symbiotic reef-building corals under global warming requires rapid acclimation or adaptation. The impact of accumulated heat stress was compared across 1643 symbiont communities before and after the 2016 mass bleaching in three coral species and free-living in the environment across ~900 kilometers of the Great Barrier Reef. Resilient reefs (less aerial bleaching than predicted from high satellite sea temperatures) showed low variation in symbioses. Before 2016, heat-tolerant environmental symbionts were common in ~98% of samples and moderately abundant (9 to 40% in samples). In corals, heat-tolerant symbionts were at low abundances (0 to 7.3%) but only in a minority (13 to 27%) of colonies. Following bleaching, environmental diversity doubled (including heat-tolerant symbionts) and increased in one coral species. Communities were dynamic (Acropora millepora) and conserved (Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora tenuis), including symbiont community turnover and redistribution. Symbiotic restructuring after bleaching occurs but is a taxon-specific ecological opportunity.

Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system.

Fine-scale heterogeneity reveals disproportionate thermal stress and coral mortality in thermally variable reef habitats during a marine heatwave

Increasing ocean temperatures threaten coral reefs globally, but corals residing in habitats that experience high thermal variability are thought to be better adapted to survive climate-induced heat stress. Here, we used long-term ecological observations and in situ temperature data from Heron Island, southern Great Barrier Reef to investigate how temperature dynamics within various thermally variable vs. thermally stable reef habitats change during a marine heatwave and the resulting consequences for coral community survival. During the heatwave, thermally variable habitats experienced larger surges in daily mean and maxima temperatures compared to stable sites, including extreme hourly incursions up to 36.5 °C. The disproportionate increase in heat stress in variable habitats corresponded with greater subsequent declines in hard coral cover, including a three-times greater decline within the thermally variable Reef Flat (70%) and Deep Lagoon (83%) than within thermally stable habitats along sheltered and exposed areas of the reef slope (0.3-19%). Interestingly, the thermally variable Reef Crest experienced comparatively small declines (26%), avoiding the most severe tidal ponding and resultant heat stress likely due to proximity to the open ocean equating to lower seawater residence times, greater mixing, and/or increased flow. These results highlight that variable thermal regimes, and any acclimatization or adaptation to elevated temperatures that may lead to, do not necessarily equate to protection against bleaching and mortality during marine heatwaves. Instead, thermally stable habitats that have greater seawater exchange with the open ocean may offer the most protection to corals during the severe marine heatwaves that accompany a changing climate.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00338-022-02328-6.

Benthic cyanobacterial mat formation during severe coral bleaching at Lizard Island: The mediating role of water currents

Cyanobacterial mats are increasingly recognised as a symptom of coral reef change. However, the spatial distribution of cyanobacterial mats during coral bleaching has received limited attention. We explored cyanobacterial mat distribution during a bleaching event at Lizard Island and considered hydrodynamics as a potential modifier. During bleaching cyanobacterial mats covered up to 34% of the benthos at a transect scale, while some quadrats (1 m2) were covered almost entirely (97.5%). The spatial distribution of cyanobacterial mats was limited to areas with slower water currents. Coral cover declined by 44% overall, although cyanobacterial mats were not spatially coupled to the magnitude of coral loss. Overall, the marked increase in cyanobacterial mat cover was an ephemeral spike, not a sustained change, with cover returning to 0.4% within 6 months. Cyanobacterial mats clearly represent dynamic space holders on coral reefs, with a marked capacity to rapidly exploit change, if conditions are right.

Big events, little change: Extreme climatic events have no region-wide effect on Great Barrier Reef governance

Extreme climatic events trigger changes in ecosystems with potential negative impacts for people. These events may provide an opportunity for environmental managers and decision-makers to improve the governance of social-ecological systems, however there is conflicting evidence regarding whether these actors are indeed able to change governance after extreme climatic events. In addition, the majority of research to date has focused on changes in specific policies or organizations after crises. A broader investigation of governance actors' activities is needed to more fully understand whether or not crises trigger change. Here we demonstrate the use of a social network analysis of management and decision-making forums (e.g. meetings, partnerships) to reveal the effects of an extreme climatic event on governance of the Great Barrier Reef over an eight-year period. To assess potential shifts in action, we examine the topics of forums and the relative participation and influence of diverse governance actors before, during, and after two back-to-back mass coral bleaching events in 2016 and 2017. Our analysis reveals that there is little change in the topics that receive attention, and in the relative participation and influence of different actor groups in the region. Our research demonstrates that network analysis of forums is useful for analyzing whether or not actors' activities and priorities evolve over time. Our results provide empirical evidence that governance actors struggle to leverage extreme climate events as windows of opportunity and further research is needed to identify alternative opportunities to improve governance.

Marine heatwaves drive recurrent mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and mass mortality events (MMEs) of marine organisms are one of their main ecological impacts. Here, we show that during the 2015-2019 period, the Mediterranean Sea has experienced exceptional thermal conditions resulting in the onset of five consecutive years of widespread MMEs across the basin. These MMEs affected thousands of kilometers of coastline from the surface to 45 m, across a range of marine habitats and taxa (50 taxa across 8 phyla). Significant relationships were found between the incidence of MMEs and the heat exposure associated with MHWs observed both at the surface and across depths. Our findings reveal that the Mediterranean Sea is experiencing an acceleration of the ecological impacts of MHWs which poses an unprecedented threat to its ecosystems' health and functioning. Overall, we show that increasing the resolution of empirical observation is critical to enhancing our ability to more effectively understand and manage the consequences of climate change.

Spatial patchiness in change, recruitment, and recovery on coral reefs at Lizard Island following consecutive bleaching events

The world's coral reef ecosystems are steadily being reconfigured by climate change. Lizard Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, offers an opportunity to examine coral reef reassembly following disturbance, as this location has been impacted by consecutive tropical cyclones and consecutive coral bleaching events. Based on repeatedly monitoring the same 349 photoquadrats around Lizard Island over a 5-year period (2016-2021) we revealed that bleaching in 2016 drove a ∼50% reduction in hard coral cover, and a concomitant increase in algal turf cover. From 2018 to 2021, significant increases (>600%) in coral cover were detected on two semi-exposed reefs and were associated with substantial Acropora recruitment. By contrast, fourteen lagoonal and back reefs exhibited virtually no recovery nor Acropora recruitment. Given that the timeframe between disturbances is set to decrease, our results suggest that some recovery is possible immediately after severe cumulative disturbances, although this recovery may be highly spatially heterogenous.

The Great Barrier Reef: How repeated marine heat waves are reshaping an iconic marine ecosystem

The Great Barrier Reef has become one of the latest casualties of the climate crisis, suffering mass coral mortalities following three marine heat waves since 2016. Two new papers untangle the cumulative effects of these disturbances on the reef's resilience.