A single-centre prospective, cohort study of the natural history of acute pancreatitis

Development and validation of a novel chronic pancreatitis pathological grade based on artificial intelligence

BACKGROUND

Effective chronic pancreatitis (CP) treatment requires accurate severity evaluation, but no histopathology grading system exists. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel CP pathological grade (Histopathology-derived CPpG) using quantified pathological and radiological characteristics through deep learning.

METHODS

Patients with pathologically/clinically confirmed CP or recurrent acute pancreatitis were retrospectively enrolled (2011-2023). Whole-slide CP images were automatically segmented and quantified via DeeplabV3+, followed by latent class analysis to develop Histopathology-derived CPpG. A deep learning radiomics score (DLRS) was created to predict Histopathology-derived CPpG using preoperative CT scans of patients with pathologically confirmed CP. CT-predicted CPpG was then validated in an independent group of patients with clinically confirmed CP and recurrent acute pancreatitis.

RESULTS

The study included 2054 patients with CP and recurrent acute pancreatitis, with 181 cases of pathologically confirmed CP. Histopathology-derived CPpG I had a higher proportion of acini, acinus-to-stroma ratio, acinus-to-islet ratio, islet-to-stroma ratio, and (acinus + islet)-to-stroma ratio, and a lower proportion of stroma and lymphocytes compared to CPpG II. The DLRS demonstrated high performance in the validation (AUC, 0.84; 95 % CI: 0.75-0.92) and test (AUC, 0.76; 95 % CI: 0.65-0.87) sets. In a large-scale clinical validation, CT-predicted grades were significantly associated with endocrine and exocrine function, as well as prognosis (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

This study developed a novel pathological classification, Histopathology-derived CPpG, which accurately reflects disease severity. Additionally, the non-invasive DLRS shows great potential for dynamically monitoring CP severity and evaluating pancreatic endocrine and exocrine function, as well as prognosis.

Endoscopic Management of Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis

This review aims to summarize the role of endoscopic therapy in the management and outcomes of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). RAP is a clinical entity characterized by repeated episodes of acute pancreatitis in the setting of a normal gland or chronic pancreatitis (CP). The aetiology of RAP can be identified in about 70% of cases; for the remaining cases, the term "idiopathic" (IRAP) is used. However, advanced diagnostic techniques may reduce the percentage of IRAP to 10%. Recognized causes of RAP are gallstone disease, including microlithiasis and biliary sludge, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), pancreatic ductal abnormalities (either congenital or acquired) interfering with pancreatic juice or bile outflow, genetic mutations, and alcohol consumption. SOD, as a clinical entity, was recently revised in the Rome IV consensus, which only recognized type 1 dysfunction as a true pathological condition, while type 2 SOD was defined as a suspected functional biliary sphincter disorder requiring the documentation of elevated basal sphincter pressure to be considered a true clinical entity and type 3 was abandoned as a diagnosis and considered functional pain. Endoscopic therapy by retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) has been proven effective when a mechanical obstruction is found and can be removed. If an obstruction is not documented, few treatment options are available to prevent the recurrence of pancreatitis and progression toward chronic disease. In gallstone disease, endoscopic biliary sphincterotomy (EBS) is effective when a dilated common bile duct or biliary sludge/microlithiasis is documented. In type 1 SOD, biliary or dual sphincterotomy is generally successful, while in type 2 SOD, endotherapy should be reserved for patients with documented sphincter dysfunction. However, in recent years, doubts have been expressed about the real efficacy of sphincterotomy in this setting. When sphincter dysfunction is not confirmed, endotherapy should be discouraged. In pancreas divisum (PD), minor papilla sphincterotomy is effective when there is a dilated dorsal duct, and the success rate is the highest in RAP patients. In the presence of obstructive conditions of the main pancreatic duct, pancreatic endotherapy is generally successful if RAP depends on intraductal hypertension. However, despite the efficacy of endotherapy, progression toward CP has been shown in some of these patients, mainly in the presence of PD, very likely depending on underlying genetic mutations. In patients with IRAP, the real utility of endotherapy still remains unclear; this is because several unknown factors may play a role in the disease, and data on outcomes are few, frequently contradictory or uncontrolled, and, in general, limited to a short period of time.

Incidence of recurrent and chronic pancreatitis after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) has a high incidence, and patients can develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) after AP.

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence rates (IRs), cumulative incidences, and proportions of RAP and CP after AP.

Design

A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the proportion of RAP and CP after AP.

Data sources and methods

The systematic search was conducted in three (PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) databases on 19 December 2023. Articles reporting the proportion of RAP or CP in patients after the first and multiple episodes of AP were eligible. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled IR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The I 2 value assessed heterogeneity. The risk of bias assessment was conducted with the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool.

Results

We included 119 articles in the quantitative synthesis and 29 in the IRs calculations. Our results showed that the IR of RAP in adult patients after AP was 5.26 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.99-6.94; I 2 = 93%), while in children, it was 4.64 per 100 person-years (CI: 2.73-7.87; I 2 = 88%). We also found that the IR of CP after AP was 1.4 per 100 person-years (CI: 0.9-2; I 2 = 75%), while after RAP, it increased to 4.3 per 100 person-years (CI: 3.1-6.0; I 2 = 76%). The risk of bias was moderate in the majority of the included studies.

Conclusion

Our results showed that RAP affects many patients with AP. Compared to patients with the first AP episode, RAP leads to a threefold higher IR for developing CP.

Trial registration

Our protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021283252).

Recurrence rates and risk factors for recurrence after first episode of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are a certain number of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients who may suffer from multiple episodes and develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), but recurrence rates and associated risk factors for RAP vary significantly in the published literature.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify all publications reporting AP recurrence until October 20th, 2022. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed to calculate the pooled estimates using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 36 studies met the inclusion criteria and all were used in pooled analyses. The overall rate of recurrence after first-time AP was 21% (95% CI, 18%- 24%), and pooled rates in biliary, alcoholic, idiopathic, and hypertriglyceridemia etiology patients were 12%, 30%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. After managing underlying causes post-discharge, the recurrence rate decreased (14% versus 4% for biliary, 30% versus 6% for alcoholic, and 30% versus 22% for hypertriglyceridemia AP). An increased risk of recurrence was reported in patients with a smoking history (odds ratio [OR] = 1.99), alcoholic etiology (OR = 1.72), male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63), and local complications (HR = 3.40), while biliary etiology was associated with lower recurrence rates (OR = 0.38).

CONCLUSION

More than one-fifth of AP patients experienced recurrence after discharge, with the highest recurrence rate in alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemia etiologies, and managing underlying causes post-discharge was related to decreased incidence. In addition, smoking history, alcoholic etiology, male gender, and presence of local complications were independent risks for the recurrence.

Immune cells and immune cell-targeted therapy in chronic pancreatitis

In recent years, studies have attempted to understand the immune cells and mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of chronic pancreatitis (CP) by constructing a model of CP. Based on these studies, the innate immune response is a key factor in disease pathogenesis and inflammation severity. Novel mechanisms of crosstalk between immune and non-immune pancreatic cells, such as pancreatic stellate cells (PSC), have also been explored. Immune cells, immune responses, and signaling pathways in CP are important factors in the development and progression of pancreatitis. Based on these mechanisms, targeted therapy may provide a feasible scheme to stop or reverse the progression of the disease in the future and provide a new direction for the treatment of CP. This review summarizes the recent advances in research on immune mechanisms in CP and the new advances in treatment based on these mechanisms.

Comparison of idiopathic recurrent acute pancreatitis [IRAP] and recurrent acute pancreatitis with genetic mutations

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic recurrent acute pancreatitis (IRAP) describes frequent episodes of pancreatitis without an etiology found using current testing. We compared the natural history of IRAP with recurrent acute pancreatitis with genetic mutations.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort of patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis (≥2 episodes) and negative conventional testing. All patients had ≥1 episode after cholecystectomy and completed genetic testing. Primary outcomes were chronic pancreatitis incidence, pancreatic cancer, and mortality. Secondary outcomes included opioid and ERCP utilization.

RESULTS

128 patients met criteria for presumed IRAP. 35 patients met criteria for true IRAP. 12 patients had recurrent acute pancreatitis with gene mutations. Chronic pancreatitis developed in 27 (77.1%) IRAP patients over a median of 6 years. Chronic pancreatitis incidence was similar in IRAP and CFTR mutation carriers; but developed later in SPINK1 carriers. No patients developed pancreatic cancer or died from pancreatic-related causes. Patients were frequently treated with oral opioids and ERCP, without significant differences within or between groups.

CONCLUSION

IRAP and pancreatitis in mutation carriers is associated with chronic pancreatitis. Important differences in natural history were observed, but no association was found with cancer or pancreas-related mortality. Efforts to understand the genetic contributions to IRAP, minimize opioids and unnecessary ERCPs are encouraged.

Meta-analysis of risk factors for recurrent acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

With the continuous improvement of living standards, the incidence of recurrent acute pancreatitis is also increasing year by year, and this disease has become a hot research topic in recent years. Understanding the etiology of recurrent acute pancreatitis has become an urgent problem to be solved in clinical practice.

AIM

To explore the risk factors for recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) by means of systematic evaluation, and provide evidence for better prevention of RAP.

METHODS

We searched CNKI, CBM, VIP, Wanfang, The Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases to collect case-control and cohort studies on the risk factors associated with RAP from January 1, 2000 to February 29, 2020. "Pancreatitis", "recurrence", "risk factors", and their free words were selected as keywords. The retrieved articles were evaluated and filtrated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta-analysis was performed based on the articles scored above 6 by using Revman5.3 software.

RESULTS

A total of 15 articles were included, with the cumulative number of cases and controls reaching 2258 and 8482, respectively. The results of meta-analysis showed that alcohol consumption [odds ratio [OR] = 1.83, 95%CI (1.30, 2.59), P = 0.0006], smoking [OR = 2.09, 95%CI (1.61, 2.73), P < 0.00001], biliary AP [OR = 1.82, 95%CI (1.28, 2.57), P = 0.0008], hypertriacylglyceremic AP [OR = 2.24, 95%CI (1.76, 2.85), P < 0.00001], alcoholic AP [OR = 2.68, 95%CI (2.03, 3.55), P < 0.00001], diabetes [OR = 1.57, 95%CI (1.48, 1.66), P < 0.00001], fatty liver [OR = 2.05, 95%CI (1.22, 3.47), P = 0.007], and CT score [OR = 3.52, 95%CI (2.28, 5.43), P < 0.00001] were statistically significant risk factors for RAP.

CONCLUSION

Current evidence shows that the risk factors for RAP include disease factors (biliary, alcoholic, and hypertriacylglyceremic AP, fatty liver, and diabetes), behavioral factors (alcohol consumption and smoking), and related indicators (CT score). Due to the limited quantity and quality of included studies, more prospective high-quality clinical studies are needed to verify the above conclusion.

[Pancreas divisum and pancreatitis]

CLINICAL/METHODOLOGICAL ISSUE

Diagnostic and clinical relevance of pancreas divisum.

STANDARD RADIOLOGICAL METHODS

Ultrasonography (US), magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

PERFORMANCE

Pancreas divisum is an anatomic variation of pancreatic duct system with an incidence in general population of about 10%. It can become symptomatic in approximately 5% of patients. MRI with MRCP is the method of choice to diagnose pancreas divisum.

ACHIEVEMENTS

MRCP is equal to ERCP in diagnosing pancreas divisum in routine clinical practice as it is noninvasive, offers the possibility to evaluate the adjacent tissues and has almost no contraindications.

PRACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

It is important to be familiar with the anatomy of the pancreatic duct system in order to plan interventional procedures for symptomatic patients in due time.

Current State of Imaging of Pediatric Pancreatitis: AJR Expert Panel Narrative Review

Pancreatitis is as common in children as it is in adults, though causes and accepted imaging strategies differ in children. In this narrative review we discuss the epidemiology of childhood pancreatitis and key imaging features for pediatric acute, acute recurrent, and chronic pancreatitis. We rely heavily on our collective experience in discussing advantages and disadvantages of different imaging modalities; practical tips for optimization of ultrasound, CT, and MRI with MRCP in children; and image interpretation pearls. Challenges and considerations unique to imaging pediatric pancreatitis are discussed, including timing of imaging, role of secretin-enhanced MRCP, utility of urgent MRI, severity prediction, autoimmune pancreatitis, and best methods for serial imaging. We suggest a methodical approach to pancreatic MRI interpretation in children and have included a sample structured report, and we provide consensus statements according to our experience imaging children with pancreatitis.

Idiopathic acute pancreatitis: a single-center investigation of clinical and biochemical features

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is termed as idiopathic (IAP) when the underlying conditions of pancreatic inflammation remain unknown. The aim of this study was to identify different clinical features in patients with IAP and AP of known aetiology. All patients hospitalized in our Gastroenterology Unit with an initial diagnosis of AP were recruited. AP was classified as of known aetiology or idiopathic according to clinical examination, serum biochemistry testing, and radiological imaging investigations, and clinical data in both patient groups were compared. A total of 127 patients (80 males, mean age: 57 years) were eligible for the analysis, 92 of which (73%) with AP of known aetiology and 35 (27%) with IAP. The major causes of AP were biliary obstruction (65%) or alcohol abuse (25%). Previous cholecystectomy was more frequent in patients with AP of known aetiology than in patients with IAP (14% versus 0%); patients with IAP showed lower gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase levels, lower daily alcohol intake, and higher frequency of gastroenteritis than patients with AP of known aetiology (34.3% versus 15.2%). Previous intake of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was more frequent in patients with IAP than in patients with AP of known aetiology (23% versus 0%). No further differences in clinical features were found between the two patient groups. IAP accounts for almost 20% of cases of AP. An association of AP with gastroenteritis or the use of NSAIDs should be considered if time-related with disease onset, especially in patients with no recurrent attacks.

North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition and the Society for Pediatric Radiology Joint Position Paper on Noninvasive Imaging of Pediatric Pancreatitis: Literature Summary and Recommendations

ABSTRACT

The reported incidence of pediatric pancreatitis is increasing. Noninvasive imaging, including ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), play important roles in the diagnosis, staging, follow-up, and management of pancreatitis in children. In this position paper, generated by members of the Pancreas Committee of the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (NASPGHAN) and the Abdominal Imaging Committee of The Society for Pediatric Radiology (SPR), we review the roles of noninvasive imaging in pediatric acute, acute recurrent, and chronic pancreatitis. We discuss available evidence related to noninvasive imaging, highlighting evidence specific to pediatric populations, and we make joint recommendations for use of noninvasive imaging. Further, we highlight the need for research to define the performance and role of noninvasive imaging in pediatric pancreatitis.

Study protocol for resolution of organ injury in acute pancreatitis (RESORP): an observational prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Survivors of acute pancreatitis (AP) have shorter overall survival and increased incidence of new-onset cardiovascular, respiratory, liver and renal disease, diabetes mellitus and cancer compared with the general population, but the mechanisms that explain this are yet to be elucidated. Our aim is to characterise the precise nature and extent of organ dysfunction following an episode of AP.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an observational prospective cohort study in a single centre comprising a University hospital with an acute and emergency receiving unit and clinical research facility. Participants will be adult patient admitted with AP. Participants will undergo assessment at recruitment, 3 months and 3 years. At each time point, multiple biochemical and/or physiological assessments to measure cardiovascular, respiratory, liver, renal and cognitive function, diabetes mellitus and quality of life. Recruitment was from 30 November 2017 to 31 May 2020; last follow-up measurements is due on 31 May 2023. The primary outcome measure is the incidence of new-onset type 3c diabetes mellitus during follow-up. Secondary outcome measures include: quality of life analyses (SF-36, Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index); montreal cognitive assessment; organ system physiological performance; multiomics predictors of AP severity, detection of premature cellular senescence. In a nested cohort within the main cohort, individuals may also consent to multiparameter MRI scan, echocardiography, pulmonary function testing, cardiopulmonary exercise testing and pulse-wave analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received the following approvals: UK IRAS Number 178615; South-east Scotland Research Ethics Committee number 16/SS/0065. Results will be made available to AP survivors, caregivers, funders and other researchers. Publications will be open-access.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT03342716) and ISRCTN50581876; Pre-results.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55-4.65 and 2.22-4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04-2.84 and 0.96-2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08-2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.

Macrophages in pancreatitis: Mechanisms and therapeutic potential

Macrophages play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of pancreatitis that is a common gastrointestinal disease. Particularly, macrophages differentiate into different phenotypes and exert diverse functions in acute pancreatitis (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP), respectively. In AP, macrophages in the pancreas and other related organs are mainly activated and differentiated into a pro-inflammatory M1 phenotype, and furthermore secrete inflammatory cytokines and mediators, causing local inflammation of the pancreas, and even intractable systemic inflammatory response or multiple organ failure. In CP, macrophages often exhibit a M2 polarisation and interact with pancreatic stellate cells (PSCs) in an autocrine and paracrine cytokine-dependent manner to promote the progression of pancreatic fibrosis. As the severity of pancreatic fibrosis aggravates, the proportion of M2/M1 macrophage cytokines in the pancreas increases. The discovery of macrophages in the pathogenesis of pancreatitis has promoted the research of targeted drugs, which provides great potential for the effective treatment of pancreatitis. This paper provides an overview of the roles of various macrophages in the pathogenesis of pancreatitis and the current research status of pancreatitis immunotherapy targeting macrophages. The findings addressed in this review are of considerable significance for understanding the pivotal role of macrophages in pancreatitis.

International Consensus Guidelines for Risk Factors in Chronic Pancreatitis. Recommendations from the working group for the international consensus guidelines for chronic pancreatitis in collaboration with the International Association of Pancreatology, the American Pancreatic Association, the Japan Pancreas Society, and European Pancreatic Club

BACKGROUND

Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is a complex inflammatory disease with remarkably impaired quality of life and permanent damage of the pancreas. This paper is part of the international consensus guidelines on CP and presents the consensus on factors elevating the risk for CP.

METHODS

An international working group with 20 experts on CP from the major pancreas societies (IAP, APA, JPS, and EPC) evaluated 14 statements generated from evidence on four questions deemed to be the most clinically relevant in CP. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to evaluate the level of evidence available per statement. To determine the level of agreement, the working group voted on the 14 statements for strength of agreement, using a nine-point Likert scale in order to calculate Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient.

RESULTS

Strong consensus and agreement were obtained for the following statements: Alcohol, smoking, and certain genetic alterations are risk factors for CP. Past history, family history, onset of symptoms, and life-style factors including alcohol intake and smoking history should be determined. Alcohol consumption dose-dependently elevates the risk of CP up to 4-fold. Ever smokers, even smoking less than a pack of cigarettes per day, have an increased risk for CP, as compared to never smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Both genetic and environmental factors can markedly elevate the risk for CP. Therefore, health-promoting lifestyle education and in certain cases genetic counselling should be employed to reduce the incidence of CP.

Comparison of Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Prognosis of Hypertriglyceridemia-Induced Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

In China, hyperlipidemia is the second major reason of acute pancreatitis.

AIMS

Comparison of Scoring Systems in identification patients at risk for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) early in the course of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP).

METHODS

Predictive accuracy of scoring systems was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in a retrospective study. Pairwise AUC comparisons were performed to calculate the difference between scoring systems.

RESULTS

A total of 238 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP were included. Sixty patients (25.2%) were classified as SAP. Twenty-nine patients (12.2%) had evidence of PNec. Nine patients (3.8%) were diagnosed with IPN. One patient (0.4%) died during hospitalization. In predicting SAP in HTG-AP, the AUCs of APACHE-II, SOFA, SIRS, Ranson's, BISAP, and MMS were 0.77, 0.83, 0.73, 0.88, 0.83, and 0.85, respectively; in predicting PNec, were 0.75, 0.77, 0.75, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively; and in predicting IPN, were 0.92, 0.86, 0.76, 0.85, 0.84, and 0.87, respectively. Pairwise AUC comparisons revealed that Ranson's, MMS, BISAP, and SOFA had higher accuracy than SIRS, Ranson's and MMS had higher accuracy than APACHE-II in predicting SAP; Ranson's had the same accuracy with BISAP, but higher than other four criteria in predicting PNec; APACHE-II had higher accuracy than SIRS in predicting IPN.

CONCLUSIONS

APACHE-II had high performance in predicting IPN, and all other score systems had medium performance in predicting SAP, PNec, and IPN in HTG-AP. Each score has its merit and weakness; BISAP may be the best criterion in predicting severity and prognosis of HTG-AP.

Timely Reduction of Triglyceride Levels Is Associated With Decreased Persistent Organ Failure in Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between the reduction of serum triglycerides (TGs) and the severity of disease in patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted among patients with HTGP. Serum TGs measured on admission (TG0), 24 hours after admission (TG24), and 48 hours after admission (TG48) were compared between patients with and without persistent organ failure (POF). Multivariable analysis determined whether elevated TG levels were independently associated with POF.

RESULTS

A total of 242 patients were included, of which 62 patients (25.6%) developed POF. Patients who developed POF had higher TG levels of TG0, TG24, and TG48 than those without POF (all P < 0.05). Patients with earlier TG levels of less than 5.65 mmol/L were proportionally less likely to develop POF (Ptrend = 0.002). On multivariate analysis, TG48 of 5.65 mmol/L or more was independently associated with POF (odds ratio, 3.316; 95% confidence interval, 1.256-8.755; P = 0.016).

CONCLUSIONS

Timely reduction of serum TGs during the early phase of HTGP is proportionally associated with decreased development of POF. Serum TG levels by 48 hours of admission correlate independently with POF.

Myrtus communis leaf extract protects against cerulein-induced acute pancreatitis in rats

In this study, the aim was to examine the potential protective effects of Myrtus communis subsp. communis leaf ethanol extract (MC) treatment against acute pancreatitis (AP) in rats. Thirty-two rats were grouped as the saline-pretreated control (C), MC-pretreated control (MC), saline-pretreated AP (AP), and MC-pretreated AP (MC + AP) groups. To induce AP, cerulein was administered (50 µg/kg) two times. The rats were given MC for 14 days before cerulein injection. Six hours after the final cerulein injection, the rats were sacrificed. Pancreatic damage was associated with an increase in the serum activity of lipase and amylase, the pancreatic activity of myeloperoxidase, and the pancreatic level of malondialdehyde, interleukin-1β, and interleukin-6. AP also led to a decrease in the pancreatic level of anti-inflammatory interleukin-10 and glutathione. Pretreatment with MC before the induction of AP significantly reduced the pancreatic damage observed during the histological examination as well as reversed the biochemical changes evoked by AP. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Acute pancreatitis is characterized by high mortality (average about 5%; severe cases may reach about 30%). The current treatment for acute pancreatitis is mainly symptomatic. The introduction of herbal drugs may lead to the development of a new strategy in the treatment of this disease. This study revealed that MC reduced pancreatic injury by decreasing pro-inflammatory cytokines, increasing antioxidant capacity and anti-inflammatory cytokine, IL-10. To the authors' knowledge, this research is the first report showing that MC inhibits the development of AP. This observation suggests that MC may be useful in the prevention and the treatment of AP in clinical settings.

Curcumin protects the pancreas from acute pancreatitis via the mitogen‑activated protein kinase signaling pathway

Curcumin has been demonstrated to reduce markers of inflammation during acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the underlying mechanisms of the protective effects of curcumin are unknown. In the present study the effects of curcumin in an AP animal model and cell models was examined and the underlying mechanisms were investigated. An AP animal model was established by injection of 5% sodium taurocholate into the biliopancreatic duct of rats, and the cell model was established by treatment with 0.5 nM cerulein with an optimal concentration of lipopolysaccharide in AR42J rat pancreatic cancer cells. Amylase activity and arterial blood gas composition were assessed by automatic biochemical and blood gas analyzers. Pathological alteration of the pancreas was determined by hematoxylin and eosin staining. Interleukin (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were measured by ELISA. Cell viability was determined by Cell Counting Kit-8 and protein expression levels were assessed by western blotting. Curcumin reduced the ascites volume after 12 and 24 h, the weight of pancreas after 12, 24 and 36 h of surgery, but also attenuated injury to the pancreas. Serum expression levels of TNF-α and CRP were reduced by curcumin. In addition, curcumin decreased the cell viability, amylase activity and the phosphorylation of p38 in AR42J cells, but did not affect the intracellular levels of IL-6 and TNF-α. Curcumin may lower the severity and inflammatory response via the mitogen-activated protein kinase-signaling pathway, to some extent. However, future studies are required to fully understand the protective effects of curcumin on AP.

Idiopathic recurrent acute pancreatitis

Idiopathic recurrent acute pancreatitis is clinically challenging and has substantial socioeconomic consequences. Investigations are expensive and often reveal little about the cause of the disease. Little is known about the interaction between genetic, environmental, anatomical, and other factors that contribute to the disease. Data on the efficacy, safety, and long-term outcomes of endoscopic therapies are scarce. The effect of idiopathic recurrent pancreatitis on quality of life is often underestimated. A more thorough examination of the causes of the disease and the roles of other associated risk factors is needed, as are well designed clinical studies with robust and objectively measurable outcomes. Ideally, evaluation of the causes of disease and therapy should be done only in specialised centres, should follow a protocol, and all outcomes should be formally assessed.

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent pancreatitis after first attack of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

To study the outcome of acute pancreatitis and risk factors for recurrent and chronic pancreatitis in a population based cohort of patients with first-time acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

All patients with first-time acute pancreatitis from 2006-2015 in Iceland were retrospectively evaluated. Medical records were scrutinized and relevant data extracted.

RESULTS

1102 cases of first-time acute pancreatitis were identified: mean age 56yr, 46% female, 41% biliary, 21% alcohol, 26% idiopathic, 13% other causes, mean follow-up 4yr. 21% had ≥1 recurrent acute pancreatitis which was independently related to alcoholic (vs. biliary hazard ratio (HR) 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-3.46), male gender (HR 1.48, 95%CI 1.08-2.04), and smoking (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.15-2.28). 3.7% developed chronic pancreatitis. Independent predictors were recurrent acute pancreatitis (HR 8.79, 95%CI 3.94-19.62), alcoholic (vs. biliary HR 9.16, 95%CI 2.71-30.9), local complications (HR 4.77, 95%CI 1.93-11.79), and organ-failure (HR 2.86, 95%CI 1.10-7.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrent acute pancreatitis occurred in one-fifth of patients. Development of chronic pancreatitis was infrequent. Both recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis were related to alcoholic acute pancreatitis, while recurrent acute pancreatitis was associated with smoking and male gender, and chronic pancreatitis to recurrent acute pancreatitis, organ-failure, and local complications.

Relationship between somatostatin and interleukin-6: A cross-sectional study in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the analysis is to determine dynamic changes in somatostatin (SS) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations during in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

The influence of tobacco smoking on IL-6 and SS levels in the serum of non-smoking (n = 10) and smoking (n = 27) patients with diagnosed AP and control group: non-smoking (n = 44), smoking (n = 42) and passive smoking (n = 29) healthy persons was proved. The concentration of IL-6 and SS was determined by means of ELISA. Differences between the groups analyzed were tested using the U Mann Whitney test. The Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlations.

RESULTS

The concentrations of IL-6 and SS were significantly higher in smoking patients with AP and healthy persons when compared with non-smoking population on every day (1 day: p = 0.0002, p = 0.015; 3 day: p = 0.005, p = 0.001 and 7 day: p = 0.025, p = 0.038). Dynamic changes in concentrations of IL-6 and SS in the serum of patients with AP were demonstrated in the ensuing days of the disease. In case of non-smoking and smoking patients, significant positive correlations between IL-6 and SS was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that some of the antiinflammatory effects of SS against acute pancreatitis may be mediated by reducing the local proinflammatory cytokine secretion in the pancreas.

Recurrent biliary acute pancreatitis is frequent in a real-world setting

BACKGROUND

Data about recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) are limited.

AIMS

To evaluate the rate of RAP and associated factors.

METHODS

Single-centre prospective study of consecutive patients at first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP) being followed-up.

RESULTS

Of 266 consecutive AP patients, (47% biliary, 15.4% alcoholic, 14.3% idiopathic) 66 (24.8%) had RAP in a mean follow-up of 42 months; 17.9% of recurrences occurred within 30 days from discharge. Age, gender, smoking and severity of first AP were not associated with RAP risk. The rate of biliary RAP was 31.3% in patients who did not receive any treatment, 18% in those treated with ERCP only, 16% in those who received cholecystectomy only, and 0% in those treated both with surgery and ERCP. Patients with biliary AP who received cholecystectomy had a significantly longer time of recurrence-free survival and reduced recurrence risk (HR = 0.45). In patients with alcoholic AP, the rate of recurrence was lower in those who quit drinking (5.8% vs 33%; p = 0.05). The alcoholic aetiology was associated with a higher risk of having >2 RAP episodes.

CONCLUSION

RAP occurs in about 25% of cases, and failure to treat biliary aetiology or quitting drinking is associated with increased recurrence risk.

Diagnosis and management of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) in primary care: consensus guidance of a Canadian expert panel

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) results in maldigestion due to inadequate activity of pancreatic enzymes in the small bowel. PEI can arise from a variety of medical conditions that reduce enzyme synthesis within the pancreatic parenchyma or from secondary factors that may occur despite optimal parenchymal function, such as pancreatic duct obstruction or impaired or poorly synchronized enzyme release.

PURPOSE

To provide practical guidance for primary care physicians managing patients who are at risk of PEI or who present with symptoms of PEI.

METHODS

For each of six key clinical questions identified by the authors, PubMed searches were conducted to identify key English-language papers up to April 2017. Forward and backward searches on key articles were conducted using Web of Science. Clinical recommendations proposed by the co-chairs (P.D. and C.T.) were vetted and approved based on the authors?

FINDINGS

The most characteristic symptom of PEI is steatorrhea ? voluminous, lipid-rich stools; other common signs and symptoms include unexplained weight loss and deficiencies of fat-soluble vitamins and other micronutrients. Pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) can relieve symptoms and long-term sequelae of PEI. Diagnosis of PEI and initiation of PERT are usually the responsibility of gastroenterology specialists. However, primary care physicians (PCPs) are well positioned to identify potential cases of PEI and to participate in the collaborative, long-term management of patients already seen by a specialist.

CONCLUSIONS

In this document, a panel of Canadian gastroenterologists has conducted a critical review of the literature on PEI and PERT and has developed practical diagnostic and treatment recommendations for PCPs. These recommendations provide guidance on identifying patients at risk of PEI, the triggers for PEI testing and referral, and best practices for co-managing patients with confirmed PEI.

Role of endoscopic ultrasound in idiopathic pancreatitis

Recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) is defined based on the occurrence of two or more episodes of acute pancreatitis. The initial evaluation fails to detect the cause of RAP in 10%-30% of patients, whose condition is classified as idiopathic RAP (IRAP). Idiopathic acute pancreatitis (IAP) is a diagnostic challenge for gastroenterologists. In view of associated morbidity and mortality, it is important to determine the aetiology of pancreatitis to provide early treatment and prevent recurrence. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is an investigation of choice for imaging of pancreas and biliary tract. In view of high diagnostic accuracy and safety of EUS, a EUS based management strategy appears to be a reasonable approach for evaluation of patients with a single/recurrent idiopathic pancreatitis. The most common diagnoses by EUS in IAP is biliary tract disease. The present review aims to discuss the role of EUS in the clinical management and diagnosis of patients with IAP. It elaborates the diagnostic approach to IAP in relation to EUS and other different modalities. Controversial issues in IAP like when to perform EUS, whether to perform after first episode or recurrent episodes, comparison among different investigations and the latest evidence significance are detailed.

Overall diet quality and risk of recurrence and progression of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis: a prospective cohort study

Purpose

An incident episode of acute pancreatitis is often followed by recurrent attacks and/or progression to chronic pancreatitis, especially if the etiology is non-gallstone-related. We examined whether overall diet quality influences the natural history of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis.

Methods

Three hundred and eighty-six individuals (born 1914–1952) were included in a prospective study, all of whom had an incident diagnosis of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1998 and 2013. Participants were already enrolled in two population-based cohorts and had completed a food frequency questionnaire in 1997. Overall diet quality was calculated using a recommended food score (RFS), which was based on 25 food items. Post-diagnosis follow-up was conducted throughout 2014 for recurrence of acute pancreatitis and/or progression to chronic pancreatic disease (including cancer). Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models.

Results

During 1859 person-years of follow-up, 23.3% of the study population (n = 90) developed recurrent or progressive pancreatic disease. An inverse association was observed between the RFS and risk of recurrent and progressive pancreatic disease after adjustment for age and sex (hazard ratio for each 2-unit increase 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81–1.01) (P_{overall association} = 0.06). However, the association became weaker and was not statistically significant after adjustment for other potential confounders, including alcohol drinking and cigarette smoking (P_{overall association} = 0.27).

Conclusions

In this prospective study of individuals with non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis, there was no clear association between overall diet quality and risk of recurrent and progressive pancreatic disease.

Prospective Endoscopic Ultrasound-Based Approach to the Evaluation of Idiopathic Pancreatitis: Causes, Response to Therapy, and Long-term Outcome

OBJECTIVES

Although idiopathic pancreatitis is common, the natural history is not well studied, and the best diagnostic approach to both single and multiple attacks remains undefined.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated patients with idiopathic pancreatitis over a 10-year period, and clinical information for each episode was reviewed. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) was performed in all patients. Patients with microlithiasis or bile duct stones were referred for cholecystectomy and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), respectively. For those with a single attack, if EUS was normal or chronic pancreatitis or pancreas divisum was diagnosed, the patient was followed up for recurrence. For those with multiple attacks and a negative EUS, ERCP and sphincter of Oddi manometry with endoscopic therapy as appropriate were recommended. All patients were followed up in the long term to evaluate for recurrent pancreatitis, the primary study end point.

RESULTS

Over the study period, 201 patients were identified (80 single attack, 121 multiple attacks; mean age 53 years, range 17-95 years, s.d. 16.3 years; and 53% female). After EUS, 54% of patients with a single attack were categorized as idiopathic, and for multiple attacks sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD) was the most common diagnosis (41%). Long-term follow-up (median 37 months; interquartile range 19-70 months) documented recurrence of pancreatitis in 15 (24%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 15-38%) patients with a single attack and in 48 (49%; 95% CI, 38-62%) patients with multiple attacks. Despite endoscopic therapy, patients with pancreas divisum and SOD had relapse rates of 50% (95% CI, 35 to 68%) and 55% (95% CI, 31 to 82%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Following a single idiopathic attack of pancreatitis and a negative EUS examination, relapse was infrequent. Despite endoscopic therapy, patients with multiple attacks, especially those attributed to pancreas divisum and SOD, had high rates of recurrence. EUS may be a useful, minimally invasive tool for the diagnostic evaluation of idiopathic pancreatitis. The study was listed in Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00609726.

Role of ERCP in Patients With Idiopathic Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis

OPINION STATEMENT

Recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) is defined based on the occurrence of two or more episodes of acute pancreatitis. RAP is differentiated from chronic pancreatitis based on the presence of a normal morphological appearance of the pancreas between episodes. RAP can be due to a variety of etiologies including common bile duct stones or sludge, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD), pancreas divisum (PD), anomalous pancreaticobiliary junction, genetic mutations, and alcohol related. In approximately 30 % of patients, the etiology of RAP is unclear and the term "idiopathic" is used. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) can be utilized in both the diagnosis and the initial management of RAP, but it has known limitations and risks. Since gallbladder sludge and SOD account for most cases with RAP, cholecystectomy and, eventually, endoscopic biliary and/or pancreatic sphincterotomy are performed as a part of management. In patients with PD-associated RAP, data from uncontrolled and primarily retrospective studies point toward a benefit from minor papillary endoscopic intervention. However, given the lack of quality data from prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs), endoscopic management in such patients remains an individualized decision, and RCTs are needed to ascertain its true long-term benefit. Future studies to investigate the role of endoscopic therapy in preventing progression to chronic pancreatitis are needed.

No association between losartan use and acute pancreatitis in hypertensive patients

Background and objective

Clinical evidence is scarce about the relationship between losartan use and acute pancreatitis. We therefore conducted a population-based case-control study using the database from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program to investigate this question.

Methods

The study consisted of 1449 hypertensive subjects aged 20-84 years with a first episode of acute pancreatitis during the period 2000-2011 as the case group and 2479 hypertensive subjects without acute pancreatitis as the control group. Both the case and control groups were matched for sex, age, comorbidities and index year of acute pancreatitis diagnosis. According to the history of losartan prescription before the date of diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, subjects who had never received a prescription for losartan were defined as 'never use of losartan', those whose last remaining losartan tablet was detected within 7 days before the date of diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were defined as 'current use of losartan' and those whose last remaining tablet of losartan was detected ≥8 days before the date of diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were defined as 'late use of losartan'. ORs and 95% CIs were measured to investigate the risk of acute pancreatitis associated with losartan use by the multivariable unconditional logistic regression model.

Results

After adjustment for potentially confounding factors, the adjusted OR of acute pancreatitis was 0.96 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.37) for subjects with current use of losartan compared with those with never use of losartan, but the difference was not statistically significant. For subjects with late use of losartan the adjusted OR of acute pancreatitis was 1.05 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.37), which also was not statistically significant.

Conclusions

No significant association can be detected between losartan use and acute pancreatitis in hypertensive patients. More research is required to determine the potential role of losartan in the risk of acute pancreatitis.

Disease progression of acute pancreatitis in pediatric patients

BACKGROUND

Approximately 10% of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) progress to chronic pancreatitis. Little is known about the factors that affect recurrence of pancreatitis after an initial episode. We retrospectively investigated patients with AP, focusing on their outcomes and the predictors for disease progression.

METHODS

Between July 2003 and June 2015, we retrospectively enrolled first-time AP patients with medical records on disease etiology, severity (according to the Atlanta classifications), and recurrence of AP. Independent predictors of recurrent AP (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis were identified using the logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Of the total 159 patients, 45 (28.3%) developed RAP, including two episodes of RAP in 19 patients, and 9 (5.7%) developed chronic pancreatitis. The median duration from the time of AP to the onset of RAP was 5.6 ± 2.3 months. RAP patients were identified as more common among patients with idiopathic first-time AP. The presence of severe ascites, pancreatic necrosis, and systemic complications was independent predictors of RAP in pediatric patients. Experiencing over two RAP episodes was the predictor for developing chronic pancreatitis. No influence of age or number of AP episodes was found on the occurrence of abdominal pain, pain severity, and the prevalence of any pain.

CONCLUSIONS

Severity of first-time AP and idiopathic first-time AP are related to RAP. Recurrence increases risk for progression to chronic pancreatitis. The risk of recurrence increased with increasing numbers of AP episodes.

Frequency of progression from acute to chronic pancreatitis and risk factors: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIM

Acute pancreatitis (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) traditionally have been thought to be distinct diseases, but there is evidence that AP can progress to CP. Little is known about the mechanisms of pancreatitis progression. We performed a meta-analysis to quantify the frequency of transition of AP to CP and identify risk factors for progression.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Embase for studies of patients with AP who developed CP, published from 1966 through November 2014. Pooled prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for these outcomes, and sensitivity, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

We analyzed 14 studies, which included a total of 8492 patients. The pooled prevalence of recurrent AP was 22% (95% CI, 18%-26%), and the pooled prevalence of CP was 10% (95% CI, 6%-15%). Sensitivity analyses yielded a pooled prevalence of CP of 10% (95% CI, 4%-19%) and 36% (95% CI, 20%-53%) in patients after the first occurrence and recurrent AP, respectively. Subgroup analyses found alcohol use and smoking to be the largest risk factors for the development of CP, with pooled prevalence values of 65% (95% CI, 48%-56%) and 61% (95% CI, 47%-73%), respectively. Meta-regression analysis found that men were more likely than women to transition from AP to CP.

CONCLUSIONS

Ten percent of patients with a first episode of AP and 36% of patients with recurrent AP develop CP; the risk is higher among smokers, alcoholics, and men. Prospective clinical studies are needed to study pancreatitis progression.

Endoscopic Treatment of Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis and Smoldering Acute Pancreatitis

Recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) is a challenging condition that can lead to chronic pancreatitis and long-term morbidity. Etiology-based treatment can potentially have an impact on the natural history of RAP and its progression to chronic pancreatitis. In cases of divisum-associated RAP and idiopathic RAP, several studies have been performed to evaluate the efficacy of endoscopic therapy in alleviation of symptoms and frequency of AP events. This review discusses the literature available on these topic as well as touching on the role of endoscopic therapy in smoldering acute pancreatitis.

Elevated serum triglycerides are independently associated with persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) represents a major health problem with prevalence exceeding 30% in the U.S. The present study aims to assess the effect of elevated serum triglyceride (TG) levels on the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Prospectively enrolled AP patients were categorized into normal, mild, moderate, and severe/very severe categories based on their TG levels and compared in respect to demographics, comorbidities, and clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis determined whether elevated TG levels were independently associated with persistent organ failure.

RESULTS

Two hundred and one out of 400 AP patients had serum TGs measured within 72 h of presentation, of which 115 had normal TG levels and 86 HTG (20 mild, 41 moderate, and 25 severe/very severe). Patients with HTG were of younger age (44 vs. 52 years), predominantly male (65% vs. 45%), obese (57% vs. 34%), diabetic (38% vs. 17%), and developed more frequently persistent organ failure (40% vs. 17%) compared with those with normal TGs (P<0.02). The rate of persistent organ failure increased proportionally with HTG severity grades (17% when normal TGs, 30% in mild, 39% in moderate, and 48% in severe/very severe HTG, Ptrend<0.001). On multivariate analysis controlling for age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, and alcohol etiology, moderate HTG (odds ratio (OR), 2.6; P=0.04) and severe/very severe HTG (OR, 4.9; P=0.009) were independently associated with persistent organ failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated serum TGs in AP patients are independently and proportionally correlated with persistent organ failure regardless of etiology. TG-mediated lipotoxicity may be an attractive target to design novel interventions for severe AP.

Factors That Affect Disease Progression After First Attack of Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about recurrence of pancreatitis after an initial episode, and little is known about how the disease progresses or what factors affect progression. We performed a population-based study of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) to determine their outcomes and associated factors.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of patients with first-time AP from 2003 through 2012 in a well-defined area of Sweden. Data were collected from medical records on disease etiology, severity (according to the Atlanta classification), recurrence of AP, subsequent chronic pancreatitis, and mortality. Patients were followed up for a median time of 4.6 years, until death or the end of 2013.

RESULTS

We identified 1457 patients with first-time AP (48% biliary disease, 17% alcohol-associated, 9.9% severe); 23% of patients had 1 or more recurrences. Risk for recurrence was significantly higher among smokers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.95; P = .03), patients with alcohol-associated AP (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.25-2.23; P < .01), after organ failure (HR, 1.46; 95% CI 1.05-2.03; P = .02), and in patients with systemic complications (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.27-2.79; P < .01) or local complications (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.22-2.27; P < .01). AP of all etiologies progressed to chronic pancreatitis, although alcohol-associated AP progressed most frequently (2.8/100 patient-years). Patients with recurrent AP were at the highest risk for chronic pancreatitis (HR, 6.74; 95% CI, 4.02-11.3; P < .01), followed by alcohol-associated AP (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 2.05-5.87; P < .01), smoking (HR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.12-4.58; P = .02), systemic complications (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.06-4.62; P = .03), and peripancreatic necrosis (HR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.7-4.43; P < .01). In-hospital mortality was 2.8%, and independently associated only with organ failure (odds ratio, 71.17; 95% CI, 21.14-239.60; P < .01). Fifty-three percent of patients who died during disease recurrence had biliary AP; a higher percentage of these patients died upon first recurrence (5.9%) than upon first attack of AP (2%; P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of first-time AP, smoking, and alcohol abuse are related to recurrence and subsequent chronic pancreatitis. Recurrence increases the risk for progression to chronic pancreatitis. Most patients who die upon disease recurrence have biliary AP.