Variability in COVID-19 in-hospital mortality rates between national health service trusts and regions in England: A national observational study for the Getting It Right First Time Programme

Association of day-case rates with post COVID-19 recovery of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy activity across England

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to investigate the safety of day-case laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and the association between day-case rates and, post the COVID-19 pandemic, recovery of activity to prepandemic levels for integrated care boards (ICBs) in England.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study of the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data set. Elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies for the period 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 were identified. Activity levels for 2022 were compared with those for the whole of 2019 (baseline). Day-case activity was identified where the length of stay recorded in the HES was zero days.

RESULTS

Data were available for 184,252 patients across the 42 ICBs in England, of which 120,408 (65.3%) were day-case procedures. By December 2022, activity levels for the whole of England had returned to 88.2% of prepandemic levels. The South West region stood out as having recovered activity levels to the greatest extent, with activity at 97.3% of prepandemic levels during 2022. The South West also had the highest postpandemic day-case rate at 74.9% of all patients seen as a day-case during 2022; this compares with an England average of 65.3%. At an ICB level, there was a significant correlation between day-case rates and postpandemic activity levels (r = 0.362, p = 0.019). There was no strong or consistent evidence that day-case surgery had poorer patient outcomes than inpatient surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Recovery of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy activity has been better in South West England than in other regions. Increasing day-case rates may be important if ICBs in other regions are to increase activity levels up to and beyond prepandemic levels.

Evaluating Mortality Predictors in COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Patients: Insights into Age, Procalcitonin, Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio, Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio, and Ferritin Lactate Index

INTRODUCTION

Numerous studies suggest that alterations in blood parameters, such as changes in platelet, lymphocyte, hemoglobin, eosinophil, and basophil counts; increased neutrophil counts; and elevated neutrophil/lymphocyte and platelet/lymphocyte ratios, signal COVID-19 infection and predict worse outcomes. Leveraging these insights, our study seeks to create a predictive mortality model by assessing age and crucial laboratory markers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients were categorized into two groups based on their hospital outcomes: 130 survivors who recovered from their Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stay (Group 1) and 74 who died (Group 2). We then developed a predictive mortality model using patients' age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), procalcitonin levels, and ferritin lactate (FL) index results.

RESULTS

A total of 204 patients were included. Patients in Group 2 had a notably higher mean age compared to those in Group 1 (76 ± 11 vs. 66 ± 15 years) (p < 0.001). Using specific cut-off values, our analysis revealed varying effectiveness in predicting COVID-19 mortality: Those aged over 73 years showed 74% sensitivity and 60% specificity, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.701. Procalcitonin levels above 0.35 ng/mL balanced true-positive and -negative identifications well, achieving an AUC of 0.752. The FL index, with a threshold of 1228 mg/dL, had 68% sensitivity and 65% specificity with an AUC of 0.707. A PLR higher than 212 resulted in 48% sensitivity and 69% specificity, with an AUC of 0.582. An NLR higher than 5.8 resulted in 55% sensitivity and 63% specificity, with an AUC of 0.640, showcasing diverse predictive accuracies across parameters. The statistical analysis evaluated the effects of age (>73), procalcitonin levels (>0.35), FL > 1228, PLR > 212, and NLR > 5.8 on mortality variables using logistic regression. Ages over 73 significantly increased event odds by 2.1 times (p = 0.05), procalcitonin levels above 0.35 nearly quintupled the odds (OR = 5.6, p < 0.001), high FL index levels more than tripled the odds (OR = 3.5, p = 0.003), a PLR > 212 significantly increased event odds by 3.5 (p = 0.030), and an NLR > 5.8 significantly increased event odds by 1.6 (p = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights significant predictors of mortality in COVID-19 ICU patients, including advanced age, elevated procalcitonin, FL index levels, the PLR, and the NLR.

Regional variation of COVID-19 admissions, acute kidney injury and mortality in England - a national observational study using administrative data

BACKGROUND

This study explores regional variations in COVID-19 hospitalization rates, in-hospital mortality, and acute kidney injury (AKI) in England. We investigated the influence of population demographic characteristics, viral strain changes, and therapeutic advances on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Using hospital episode statistics, we conducted a retrospective cohort study with 749,844 admissions in 337,029 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection (March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021). Multivariable logistic regression identified factors predicting AKI and mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.

RESULTS

London had the highest number of COVID-19 admissions (131,338, 18%), followed by the North-west region (122,683, 16%). The North-west had the highest population incidence of COVID-19 hospital admissions (21,167 per million population, pmp), while the South-west had the lowest (9,292 admissions pmp). Patients in London were relatively younger (67.0 ± 17.7 years) than those in the East of England (72.2 ± 16.8 years). The shortest length of stay was in the North-east (12.2 ± 14.9 days), while the longest was in the North-west (15.2 ± 17.9 days). All eight regions had higher odds of death compared to London, ranging from OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.00, 1.07) in the South-west to OR 1.24 (95% CI 1.21, 1.28) in the North-west. Older age, Asian ethnicity, emergency admission, transfers from other hospitals, AKI presence, ITU admission, social deprivation, and comorbidity were associated with higher odds of death. AKI incidence was 30.3%, and all regions had lower odds of developing AKI compared to London. Increasing age, mixed and black ethnicity, emergency admission, transfers from other providers, ITU care, and different levels of comorbidity were associated with higher odds of developing AKI.

CONCLUSIONS

London exhibited higher hospital admission numbers and AKI incidence, but lower odds of death compared to other regions in England.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered on National Library of Medicine website ( www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov ) with registration number NCT04579562 on 8/10/2020.

Analysing COVID-19 treatment outcomes in dedicated wards at a large university hospital in northern Poland: a result-based observational study

OBJECTIVES

Presenting outcomes of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 should be put in context and comparison with other facilities. However, varied methodology applied in published studies can impede or even hinder a reliable comparison. The aim of this study is to share our experience in pandemic management and highlight previously under-reported factors affecting mortality. We present outcomes of COVID-19 treatment in our facility that will allow for an intercentre comparison. We use simple statistical parameters-case fatality ratio (CFR) and length of stay (LOS).

SETTING

Large clinical hospital in northern Poland serving over 120 000 patients annually.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected from patients hospitalised in COVID-19 general and intensive care unit (ICU) isolation wards from November 2020 to June 2021. The sample consisted of 640 patients-250 (39.1 %) were women and 390 (60.9 %) were men, with a median age of 69 (IQR 59-78) years.

RESULTS

Values of LOS and CFR were calculated and analysed. Overall CFR for the analysed period was 24.8%, varying from 15.9 % during second quarter 2021 to 34.1% during fourth quarter 2020. The CFR was 23.2% in the general ward and 70.7% in the ICU. All ICU patients required intubation and mechanical ventilation, and 44 (75.9 %) of them developed acute respiratory distress syndrome. The average LOS was 12.6 (±7.5) days.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlighted the importance of some of the under-reported factors affecting CFR, LOS and thus, mortality. For further multicentre analysis, we recommend broad analysis of factors affecting mortality in COVID-19 using simple and transparent statistical and clinical parameters.

Role of hospital strain in determining outcomes for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England

BACKGROUND

In England, reported COVID-19 mortality rates increased during winter 2020/21 relative to earlier summer and autumn months. This study aimed to examine the association between COVID-19-related hospital bed-strain during this time and patient outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. All unique patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a completed (discharged alive or died in hospital) hospital stay with an admission date between 1 July 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included. Bed-strain was calculated as the number of beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 divided by the maximum COVID-19 bed occupancy during the study period. Bed-strain was categorised into quartiles for modelling. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest and length of stay a secondary outcome.

RESULTS

There were 253 768 unique hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay. Patient admissions peaked in January 2021 (n=89 047), although the crude mortality rate peaked slightly earlier in December 2020 (26.4%). After adjustment for covariates, the mortality rate in the lowest and highest quartile of bed-strain was 23.6% and 25.3%, respectively (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.17). For the lowest and the highest quartile of bed-strain, adjusted mean length of stay was 13.2 days and 11.6 days, respectively in survivors and was 16.5 days and 12.6 days, respectively in patients who died in hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of bed-strain were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates, although the effect was relatively modest and may not fully explain increased mortality rates during winter 2020/21 compared with earlier months. Shorter hospital stay during periods of greater strain may partly reflect changes in patient management over time.

Differential Patterns by Area-Level Social Determinants of Health in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Related Mortality and Non-COVID-19 Mortality: A Population-Based Study of 11.8 Million People in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDOH) have been associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined patterns in COVID-19-related mortality by SDOH and compared these patterns to those for non-COVID-19 mortality.

METHODS

Residents of Ontario, Canada, aged ≥20 years were followed from 1 March 2020 to 2 March 2021. COVID-19-related death was defined as death within 30 days following or 7 days prior to a positive COVID-19 test. Area-level SDOH from the 2016 census included median household income; proportion with diploma or higher educational attainment; proportion essential workers, racially minoritized groups, recent immigrants, apartment buildings, and high-density housing; and average household size. We examined associations between SDOH and COVID-19-related mortality, and non-COVID-19 mortality using cause-specific hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 11 810 255 individuals, we observed 3880 COVID-19-related deaths and 88 107 non-COVID-19 deaths. After accounting for demographics, baseline health, and other area-level SDOH, the following were associated with increased hazards of COVID-19-related death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: lower income (1.30 [1.04-1.62]), lower educational attainment (1.27 [1.07-1.52]), higher proportions essential workers (1.28 [1.05-1.57]), racially minoritized groups (1.42 [1.08-1.87]), apartment buildings (1.25 [1.07-1.46]), and large vs medium household size (1.30 [1.12-1.50]). Areas with higher proportion racially minoritized groups were associated with a lower hazard of non-COVID-19 mortality (0.88 [0.84-0.92]).

CONCLUSIONS

Area-level SDOH are associated with COVID-19-related mortality after accounting for demographic and clinical factors. COVID-19 has reversed patterns of lower non-COVID-19 mortality among racially minoritized groups. Pandemic responses should include strategies to address disproportionate risks and inequitable coverage of preventive interventions associated with SDOH.

Vaccination saves lives: a real-time study of patients with chronic diseases and severe COVID-19 infection

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to describe the demographic and clinical profile and ascertain the determinants of outcome among hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) adult patients enrolled in the National Clinical Registry for COVID-19 (NCRC).

METHODS

NCRC is an on-going data collection platform operational in 42 hospitals across India. Data of hospitalized COVID-19 patients enrolled in NCRC between 1st September 2020 to 26th October 2021 were examined.

RESULTS

Analysis of 29 509 hospitalized, adult COVID-19 patients [mean (SD) age: 51.1 (16.2) year; male: 18 752 (63.6%)] showed that 15 678 (53.1%) had at least one comorbidity. Among 25 715 (87.1%) symptomatic patients, fever was the commonest symptom (72.3%) followed by shortness of breath (48.9%) and dry cough (45.5%). In-hospital mortality was 14.5% (n = 3957). Adjusted odds of dying were significantly higher in age group ≥60 years, males, with diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, chronic liver disease, malignancy and tuberculosis, presenting with dyspnoea and neurological symptoms. WHO ordinal scale 4 or above at admission carried the highest odds of dying [5.6 (95% CI: 4.6-7.0)]. Patients receiving one [OR: 0.5 (95% CI: 0.4-0.7)] or two doses of anti-SARS CoV-2 vaccine [OR: 0.4 (95% CI: 0.3-0.7)] were protected from in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

WHO ordinal scale at admission is the most important independent predictor for in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients. Anti-SARS-CoV2 vaccination provides significant protection against mortality.

Hospitalised COVID-19 outcomes are predicted by hypoxaemia and pneumonia phenotype irrespective of the timing of their emergence

Despite the known clinical importance of hypoxemia and pneumonia, there is a paucity of evidence for these variables with respect to risk of mortality and short-term outcomes among those hospitalised with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

Describe the prevalence and clinical course of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 based on oxygenation and pneumonia status at presentation and determine the incidence of emergent hypoxaemia or radiographic pneumonia during admission.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted using a Canadian regional registry. Patients were stratified according to hypoxaemia/pneumonia phenotype and prevalence. Clinical parameters were compared between phenotypes using χ² and one-way Analysis of variance (ANOVA). Cox analysis estimated adjusted Hazard Ratios (HR) for associations between disease outcomes and phenotypes.

RESULTS

At emergency department (ED) admission, the prevalence of pneumonia and hypoxaemia was 43% and 50%, respectively, and when stratified to phenotypes: 28.2% hypoxaemia⁺/pneumonia⁺, 22.2% hypoxaemia⁺/pneumonia^-, 14.5% hypoxaemia^-/pneumonia⁺ and 35.1% hypoxaemia^-/pneumonia^-. Mortality was 31.1% in the hypoxaemia⁺/pneumonia^- group and 26.3% in the hypoxaemia⁺/pneumonia⁺ group. Hypoxaemia with pneumonia and without pneumonia predicted higher probability of death. Hypoxaemia either <24 hours or ≥24 hours after hospitalisation predicted higher mortality and need for home oxygen compared with those without hypoxaemia. Patients with early hypoxaemia had higher probability of Intensive care unit (ICU) admission compared with those with late hypoxaemia.

CONCLUSION

Mortality in COVID-19 infection is predicted by hypoxaemia with or without pneumonia and was greatest in patients who initially presented with hypoxaemia. The emergence of hypoxaemia was predicted by radiographic pneumonia. Patients with early and emergent hypoxaemia had similar mortality but were less likely to be admitted to ICU. There may be delayed identification of hypoxaemia, which prevents timely escalation of care.

Demographic, behavioural and occupational risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK healthcare workers: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than the general population. This group is pivotal to healthcare system resilience during the COVID-19, and future, pandemics. We investigated demographic, social, behavioural and occupational risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs.

DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

HCWs enrolled in a large-scale sero-epidemiological study at a UK university teaching hospital were sent questionnaires spanning a 5-month period from March to July 2020. In a retrospective observational cohort study, univariate logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. A Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator regression model was used to identify variables to include in a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Among 2258 HCWs, highest ORs associated with SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity on multivariate analysis were having a household member previously testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (OR 6.94 (95% CI 4.15 to 11.6); p&lt;0.0001) and being of black ethnicity (6.21 (95% CI 2.69 to 14.3); p&lt;0.0001). Occupational factors associated with a higher risk of seropositivity included working as a physiotherapist (OR 2.78 (95% CI 1.21 to 6.36); p=0.015) and working predominantly in acute medicine (OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.57 to 4.69); p&lt;0.0001) or medical subspecialties (not including infectious diseases) (OR 2.33 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.88); p=0.001). Reporting that adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) was 'rarely' available had an OR of 2.83 (95% CI 1.29 to 6.25; p=0.01). Reporting attending a handover where social distancing was not possible had an OR of 1.39 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.9; p=0.038).

CONCLUSIONS

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and potential vaccine escape continue to threaten stability of healthcare systems worldwide, and sustained vigilance against HCW infection remains a priority. Enhanced risk assessments should be considered for HCWs of black ethnicity, physiotherapists and those working in acute medicine or medical subspecialties. Workplace risk reduction measures include ongoing access to high-quality PPE and effective social distancing measures.

COVID-19 hospital activity and in-hospital mortality during the first and second waves of the pandemic in England: an observational study

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to examine the profile of, and outcomes for, all people hospitalised with COVID-19 across the first and second waves of the pandemic in England.

METHODS

This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics data set for England. All patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest. The second wave was identified as starting on 1 September 2020. Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the relationship between mortality and demographic, comorbidity and temporal covariates.

RESULTS

Over the 13 months, 374 244 unique patients had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay, of whom 93 701 (25%) died in hospital. Adjusted mortality rates fell from 40%-50% in March 2020 to 11% in August 2020 before rising to 21% in January 2021 and declining steadily to March 2021. Improvements in mortality rates were less apparent in older and comorbid patients. Although mortality rates fell for all ethnic groups from the first to the second wave, declines were less pronounced for Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, other Asian and black African ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial decline in adjusted mortality rates during the early part of the first wave which was largely maintained during the second wave. The underlying reasons for consistently higher mortality risk in some ethnic groups merits further study.

Length of hospital stay and survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic: A single centre retrospective study from Slovenia

Background

As of writing, there are no publications pertaining to the prediction of COVID-19-related outcomes and length of stay in patients from Slovene hospitals.

Objectives

To evaluate the length of regular ward and ICU stays and assess the survival of COVID-19 patients to develop better prediction models to forecast hospital capacity and staffing demands in possible further pandemic peaks.

Methods

In this retrospective, single-site study we analysed the length of stay and survival of all patients, hospitalized due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) at the peak of the second wave, between November 18th 2020 and January 27th 2021 at the University Clinic Golnik, Slovenia.

Results

Out of 407 included patients, 59% were male. The median length of stay on regular wards was 7.5 (IQR 5–13) days, and the median ICU length of stay was 6 (IQR 4–11) days. Age, male sex, and ICU stay were significantly associated with a higher risk of death. The probability of dying in 21 days at the regular ward was 14.4% (95% CI [10.9–18%]) and at the ICU it was 43.6% (95% CI [19.3-51.8%]).

Conclusion

The survival of COVID-19 is strongly affected by age, sex, and the fact that a patient had to be admitted to ICU, while the length of hospital bed occupancy is very similar across different demographic groups. Knowing the length of stay and admission rate to ICU is important for proper planning of resources during an epidemic.

Modeling the Enzymatic Mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase by DFT/MM-MD: An Unusual Active Site Leading to High Replication Rates

Viral infection relies on the hijacking of cellular machineries to enforce the reproduction of the infecting virus and its subsequent diffusion. In this context, the replication of the viral genome is a key step performed by specific enzymes, i.e., polymerases. The replication of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemics, is based on the duplication of its RNA genome, an action performed by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. In this contribution, by using highly demanding DFT/MM-MD computations coupled to 2D-umbrella sampling techniques, we have determined the chemical mechanisms leading to the inclusion of a nucleotide in the nascent viral RNA strand. These results highlight the high efficiency of the polymerase, which lowers the activation free energy to less than 10 kcal/mol. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase active site is slightly different from those usually found in other similar enzymes, and in particular, it lacks the possibility to enforce a proton shuttle via a nearby histidine. Our simulations show that this absence is partially compensated by lysine whose proton assists the reaction, opening up an alternative, but highly efficient, reactive channel. Our results present the first mechanistic resolution of SARS-CoV-2 genome replication at the DFT/MM-MD level and shed light on its unusual enzymatic reactivity paving the way for the future rational design of antivirals targeting emerging RNA viruses.

Safety and Efficacy of Dupilumab for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients With Moderate to Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Phase 2a Trial

Background

Based on studies implicating the type 2 cytokine interleukin 13 (IL-13) as a potential contributor to critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), this trial was designed as an early phase 2 study to assess dupilumab, a monoclonal antibody that blocks IL-13 and interleukin 4 signaling, for treatment of inpatients with COVID-19.

Methods

We conducted a phase 2a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (NCT04920916) to assess the safety and efficacy of dupilumab plus standard of care vs placebo plus standard of care in mitigating respiratory failure and death in those hospitalized with COVID-19.

Results

Forty eligible subjects were enrolled from June to November of 2021. There was no statistically significant difference in adverse events nor in the primary endpoint of ventilator-free survival at day 28 between study arms. However, for the secondary endpoint of mortality at day 60, there were 2 deaths in the dupilumab group compared with 5 deaths in the placebo group (60-day survival: 89.5% vs 76.2%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.05 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .004-.72]; P = .03). Among subjects who were not in the intensive care unit (ICU) at randomization, 3 subjects in the dupilumab arm were admitted to the ICU compared to 6 in the placebo arm (17.7% vs 37.5%; adjusted HR, 0.44 [95% CI, .09-2.09]; P = .30). Last, we found evidence of type 2 signaling blockade in the dupilumab group through analysis of immune biomarkers over time.

Conclusions

Although the primary outcome of day 28 ventilator-free survival was not reached, adverse events were not observed and survival was higher in the dupilumab group by day 60.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT04920916.

Trends of in-Hospital and ICU Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Over the Fourth and Fifth COVID-19 Surges in Iran: A Retrospective Cohort Study from Iran

Objective

The current study aimed to investigate the temporal trend of in-hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients over 6 months in the spring and summer of 2021 in Iran.

Design

We performed an observational retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Qazvin Province- Iran during 6 month from April to September 2021.

Participants

All 14355 patients who were hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 in hospitals of Qazvin Province.

Intervention

No intervention.

Main outcome measures

The trends of overall in-hospital mortality and ICU mortality were the main outcome of interest. We obtained crude and adjusted in-hospital and ICU mortality rates for each month of admission and over surge and lull periods of the disease.

Results

The overall in-hospital mortality, early mortality and ICU mortality were 8.8%, 3.2% and 67.6%, respectively. The trend for overall mortality was almost plateau ranging from 6.5% in July to 10.7% in April. The lowest ICU mortality was 60.0% observed in April, whereas it reached a peak in August (ICU mortality = 75.7%). Admission on surge days of COVID-19 was associated with an increased risk of overall mortality (Odds ratio = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 1.5). The comparison of surge and lull status showed that the odds of ICU mortality in the surge of COVID-19 was 1.7 higher than in the lull period (P-value < 0.001).

Conclusions

We found that the risk of both overall in-hospital and ICU mortality increased over the surge period and fourth and fifth waves of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Iran. The lack of hospital resources and particularly ICU capacities to respond to the crisis during the surge period is assumed to be the main culprit.

National geographical pattern of COVID-19 hospitalization, case fatalities, and associated factors in patients covered by Iran Health Insurance Organization

Background

Understanding the Spatio-temporal distribution and interpersonal comparisons are important tools in etiological studies. This study was conducted to investigate the temporal and geographical distribution of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO) insured population (the second largest social health insurance organization) and the factors affecting their case fatality rate (CFR).

Methods

In this descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study, the demographic and clinical data of all insured of the IHIO who were hospitalized with COVID-19 in hospitals across the country until March 2021 was extracted from the comprehensive system of handling the inpatient documents of this organization. The Excel 2019 and GeoDA software were used for descriptive reporting and geographical distribution of variables. A multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the Odds Ratio (OR) of death in patients with COVID-19 using STATA 14 software.

Results

During the first 14 months of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran, 0.72% of the IHIO insured (303,887 individuals) were hospitalized with COVID-19. Hospitalization per 100,000 people varied from 192.51 in East Azerbaijan to 1,277.49 in Yazd province. The overall CFR in hospitalized patients was 14%. Tehran and Kohgiluyeh & BoyerAhmad provinces had the highest and lowest CFR with 19.39% and 5.19%, respectively. The highest odds of death were in those over 80 years old people (OR = 9.65), ICU-admitted (OR = 7.49), Hospitalized in governmental hospitals (OR = 2.08), Being a foreign national (OR = 1.45), hospitalized in November (OR = 1.47) and Residence in provinces such as Sistan & Baluchestan (OR = 1.47) and Razavi Khorasan (OR = 1.66) respectively. Furthermore, the odds of death were lower in females (OR = 0.81) than in males.

Conclusions

A sound understanding of the primary causes of COVID-19 death and severity in different groups can be the basis for developing programs focused on more vulnerable groups in order to manage the crisis more effectively and benefit from resources more efficiently.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13649-0.

Factors associated with, and variations in, COVID-19 hospital death rates in England's first two waves: observational study

OBJECTIVES

To assess patient-level and hospital-level predictors of death and variation in death rates following admission for COVID-19 in England's first two waves after accounting for random variation. To quantify the correlation between hospitals' first and second wave death rates.

DESIGN

Observational study using administrative data.

SETTING

Acute non-specialist hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

In-hospital death.

RESULTS

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data were extracted for all acute hospitals in England for COVID-19 admissions from March 2020 to March 2021. In wave 1 (March to July 2020), there were 74 484 admissions and 21 883 deaths (crude rate 29.4%); in wave 2 (August 2020 to March 2021), there were 165 642 admissions and 36 040 deaths (21.8%). Wave 2 patients were younger, with more hypertension and obesity but lower rates of other comorbidities. Mortality improved for all ages; in wave 2, it peaked in December 2020 at 24.2% (lower than wave 1's peak) but halved by March 2021. In multiple multilevel modelling combining HES with hospital-level data from Situational Reports, wave 2 and wave 1 variables significantly associated with death were mostly the same. The median odds ratio for wave 1 was just 1.05 and for wave 2 was 1.07. At 99.8% control limits, 3% of hospitals were high and 7% were low funnel plot outliers in wave 1; these figures were 9% and 12% for wave 2. Four hospitals were (low) outliers in both waves. The correlation between hospitals' adjusted mortality rates between waves was 0.45 (p<0.0001). Length of stay was similar in each wave.

CONCLUSIONS

England's first two COVID-19 waves were similar regarding predictors and moderate interhospital variation. Despite the challenges, variation in death rates and length of stay between hospitals was modest and might be accounted for by unobserved patient factors.

Mortality trends and lengths of stay among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ontario and Québec (Canada): a population-based cohort study of the first three epidemic waves

Background

Epidemics of COVID-19 strained hospital resources. We describe temporal trends in mortality risk and length of stays in hospital and intensive care units (ICUs) among patients with COVID-19 hospitalized through the first three epidemic waves in Canada.

Methods

We used population-based provincial hospitalization data from the epicenters of Canada's epidemics (Ontario and Québec). Adjusted estimates were obtained using marginal standardization of logistic regression models, accounting for patient-level and hospital-level determinants.

Results

Using all hospitalizations from Ontario (N = 26,538) and Québec (N = 23,857), we found that unadjusted in-hospital mortality risks peaked at 31% in the first wave and was lowest at the end of the third wave at 6–7%. This general trend remained after adjustments. The odds of in-hospital mortality in the highest patient load quintile were 1.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0–1.4; Ontario) and 1.6-fold (95% CI: 1.3–1.9; Québec) that of the lowest quintile. Mean hospital and ICU length of stays decreased over time but ICU stays were consistently higher in Ontario than Québec.

Conclusions

In-hospital mortality risks and length of ICU stays declined over time despite changing patient demographics. Continuous population-based monitoring of patient outcomes in an evolving epidemic is necessary for health system preparedness and response.

Interim Analysis of Impact of Adding Low Dose Pulmonary Radiotherapy to Moderate COVID-19 Pneumonia Patients: IMpaCt-RT Study

Background

Treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains largely supportive till date and multiple clinical trials took place within the short span of time to evaluate the role of investigational therapies. The anti-inflammatory effect of low dose whole lung radiation in treating pneumonia has been documented earlier. This clinical trial analyzed the effect of low dose radiation therapy (LDRT) in a moderately affected COVID-19 pneumonia patient cohort and has evaluated its effect in stopping the conversion of moderate disease into severe disease.

Methods

Patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia as characterized by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India, were randomized (1:1) to low dose whole lung radiation versus no radiation. All treatment of patients was concurrently being given as per institutional protocol. Patients were followed up with clinical and laboratory parameters monitored on Days 1, 3, 7, and 14. Computed tomography scan (CT scan) of thorax was performed on Days 1 and 7. Patients were evaluated for conversion of moderate into severe disease as per National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS-2 score) as the primary end point. The secondary endpoints included changes in ratio between peripheral capillary oxygen saturation and fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2), biochemical markers, 25-point CT severity score, and radiation induced acute pulmonary toxicities.

Findings

At the interim analysis, there were seven patients in the radiation arm and six in the control. A whole lung LDRT improved the outcome of SpO2/FiO2 at Day 3; however it did not convert into a statistically significant improvement for the NEWS-2 score. The serum levels of LDH, CRP, Ferritin and D-dimer were significantly reduced on 14 days in the LDRT arm in comparison to the baseline value but were not significant between the two groups.

Interpretation

LDRT seems to have the potential to prevent moderate COVID-19 pneumonia from a deteriorating to severe category. However, further randomized clinical trial with an adequate number of such patients is warranted to establish the definitive role of LDRT in the management of COVID-19 pneumonia.

Funding

An intramural research project bearing code: I-27/621, was sanctioned from the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna, India.

Clinical Trial Registration

Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI/2021/06/033912, 25th May 2021) ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/login.php.

Safety and Efficacy of Dupilumab for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients with Moderate to Severe COVID 19: A Phase IIa Trial.. [PMID: 35411349 PMCID: PMC8996634 DOI: 10.1101/2022.03.30.22273194]

Background:

A profound need remains to develop further therapeutics for treatment of those hospitalized with COVID-19. Based on data implicating the type 2 cytokine interleukin (IL)-13 as a significant factor leading to critical COVID-19, this trial was designed to assess dupilumab, a monoclonal antibody that blocks IL-13 and IL-4 signaling, for treatment of inpatients with COVID-19.

Methods:

We conducted a phase IIa randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of dupilumab plus standard of care versus placebo plus standard of care in mitigating respiratory failure and death in those hospitalized with COVID-19. Subjects were followed prospectively for 60 days. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients alive and free of invasive mechanical ventilation at 28 days.

Findings:

Forty eligible subjects were enrolled from June to November of 2021. There was no difference in adverse events nor in ventilator free survival at day 28 between study arms. However, for the secondary endpoint of mortality at day 60, subjects randomized to dupilumab had a higher survival rate compared to the placebo group (89.5% vs 76.2%, adjusted HR 0.05, 95% CI: 0.0–0.72, p=0.03). There were fewer subjects admitted to the ICU in the dupilumab group compared to placebo (33.3% vs 66.7%; adjusted HR 0.44, 95% CI: 0.09–2.09, p=0.30). Lastly, we saw downstream evidence of IL-4 and IL-13 signaling blockade in the dupilumab group through analysis of immune biomarkers over time.

Interpretation:

Dupilumab was well tolerated and improved 60-day survival in patients hospitalized with moderate to severe COVID-19.

Trial Registration:

This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04920916.

Funding:

Virginia Biosciences Health Research Corporation, PBM C19, Henske Family Foundation, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute

Survival benefit of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in severe COVID-19: a multi-centre-matched cohort study

Purpose

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has become an established therapy for severe respiratory failure in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The added benefit of receiving ECMO in COVID-19 remains uncertain. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of receiving ECMO at specialist centres on hospital mortality.

Methods

A multi-centre retrospective study was conducted in COVID-19 patients from 111 hospitals, referred to two specialist ECMO centres in the United Kingdom (UK) (March 2020 to February 2021). Detailed covariate data were contemporaneously curated from electronic referral systems. We analysed added benefit of ECMO treatment in specialist centres using propensity score matching techniques.

Results

1363 patients, 243 receiving ECMO, were analysed. The best matching technique generated 209 matches, with a marginal odds ratio (OR) for mortality of 0.44 (95% CI 0.29–0.68, p < 0.001) and absolute mortality reduction of 18.2% (44% vs 25.8%, p < 0.001) for treatment with ECMO in a specialist centre.

Conclusion

We found ECMO provided at specialist centres conferred significant survival benefit. Where resources and specialism allow, ECMO should be widely offered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-022-06645-w.

Venous thromboembolism in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in England

Background

The aim of this study was to detail the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in England.

Methods

This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset for England. All patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed between 1st March 2020 and 31st March 2021 were included. A recorded diagnosis of VTE during the index stay or during a subsequent admission in the six weeks following discharge was the primary outcome in the main analysis. In secondary analysis, VTE diagnosis was the primary exposure and in-hospital mortality the primary outcome.

Results

Over the 13 months, 374,244 unique patients had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay, of whom 17,346 (4.6%) had a recorded diagnosis of VTE. VTE was more commonly recorded in patients aged 40–79 years, males and in patients of Black ethnicity, even after adjusting for covariates. Recorded VTE diagnosis was associated with longer hospital stay and higher adjusted in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.41)).

Conclusions

VTE was a common complication of hospitalisation with COVID-19 in England. VTE was associated with both increased length of stay and mortality rate.

Demographic Characteristics and Status of Vaccinated Individuals with a History of COVID-19 Infection Pre- or Post-Vaccination: A Descriptive Study of a Nationally Representative Sample in Saudi Arabia

Background: Saudi Arabia expedited the approval of some COVID-19 vaccines and launched mass vaccination campaigns. The aim of this study was to describe the demographics of vaccinated COVID-19 cases and compare the mortality rates of COVID-19 cases who were infected post-vaccination in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. We retrieved data for COVID-19 cases who were infected pre- or post-vaccination and had received at least one injection of the Oxford–AstraZeneca or Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine from 4 December 2020 to 15 October 2021. Results: The number of patients who were infected and had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine was 281,744. Approximately 45% of subjects were infected post-vaccination, and 75% of subjects had received the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine. Only 0.342% of the patients who were infected post-vaccination died, and 447 patients were admitted to ICUs. Most of the patients who were infected with COVID-19 post-vaccination and were admitted to ICUs (69.84%) had received only one dose of the vaccine (p < 0.0001). The mean time to infection for patients who had received one and two doses of the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine were 27 and 8 days longer than their counterparts who had received one and two doses of Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine, respectively. No difference in the odds of mortality between the Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines was found (OR = 1.121, 95% CI = [0.907–1.386], p-value = 0.291). Patients who had received two doses of the vaccine had significantly lower odds of mortality compared to those who had received one dose (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Vaccines are vital in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this study show no difference between the Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines in the rate of mortality. However, the number of vaccine doses was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality. Future studies should examine the effectiveness of different COVID-19 vaccines using real-world data and more robust designs.

History of Heart Failure in Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19: Relevant Factor of In-Hospital Complications and All-Cause Mortality up to Six Months

Background: Patients with heart failure (HF) are at high risk of unfavorable courses of COVID-19. The aim of this study was to evaluate characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with HF. Methods: Data of patients hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Poland between March 2020 and May 2021 with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed. The study population was divided into a HF group (patients with a history of HF) and a non-HF group. Results: Out of 2184 patients (65 ± 13 years old, 50% male), 12% had a history of HF. Patients from the HF group were older, more often males, had more comorbidities, more often dyspnea, pulmonary and peripheral congestion, inflammation, and end-organ damage biomarkers. HF patients had longer and more complicated hospital stay, with more frequent acute HF development as compared with non-HF. They had significantly higher mortality assessed in hospital (35% vs. 12%) at three (53% vs. 22%) and six months (72% vs. 47%). Of 76 (4%) patients who developed acute HF, 71% died during hospitalization, 79% at three, and 87% at six months. Conclusions: The history of HF identifies patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of in-hospital complications and mortality up to six months of follow-up.

Risk Factors, Characteristics, and Outcome in Non-Ventilated Patients with Spontaneous Pneumothorax or Pneumomediastinum Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background and Objectives

Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) and spontaneous pneumomediastinum (SPM) have frequently been cited as complications associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, with especially poor prognosis in mechanically ventilated patients. The current literature is controversial regarding the potential risk factors for developing SP or SPM (SP-SPM) in non-ventilated COVID-19 patients. Our research addressed a twofold objective: (a) to investigate the characteristics of patients with SP-SPM (both with and without COVID-19) and compare them to patients with sole COVID-19; (b) to quantify the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with SP-SPM and COVID-19.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective case–control study was conducted in the emergency departments (ED) of two tertiary hospitals in Timisoara, Romania, over one year (1st April 2020‒31st March 2021; 64,845 records in total) and 70 cases of SP-SPM were identified (both SARS-CoV-2 positives and negatives). The control group comprised COVID-19 patients with no SP-SPM, included at a 2:1 ratio. Logistic regression was employed to quantify the in-hospital mortality risk associated with age, SP-SPM, and COVID-19.

Results

SP-SPM and COVID-19 were connected with prolonged hospitalization, a higher percentage of intensive care admission, and a higher mortality. SP-SPM increased the odds of death by almost four times in patients of the same age, gender, smoking status, and SARS-CoV-2 infection: OR = 3.758, 95% CI (1.443–9.792). Each additional year of age added 9.4% to the mortality risk: OR = 1.094, 95% CI (1.054–1.135).

Conclusion

ED physicians should acknowledge these potential risks when attending COVID-19 patients with SP-SPM.

A hitchhiker's guide through the COVID-19 galaxy

Numerous reviews have summarized the epidemiology, pathophysiology and the various therapeutic aspects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but a practical guide on "how to treat whom with what and when" based on an understanding of the immunological background of the disease stages remains missing. This review attempts to combine the current knowledge about the immunopathology of COVID-19 with published evidence of available and emerging treatment options. We recognize that the information about COVID-19 and its treatment is rapidly changing, but hope that this guide offers those on the frontline of this pandemic an understanding of the host response in COVID-19 patients and supports their ongoing efforts to select the best treatments tailored to their patient's clinical status.