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Hodgson JA, Randle Z, Shortall CR, Oliver TH. Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4765-4774. [PMID: 35590459 PMCID: PMC9540991 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Accepted: 01/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a "conductance" metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965-1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the "conductance" of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenny A. Hodgson
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and BehaviourUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
| | | | | | - Tom H. Oliver
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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2
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Liu S, Han B, Li W. Self-healing time of population under dynamic disturbance. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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3
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Möbius W, Tesser F, Alards KMJ, Benzi R, Nelson DR, Toschi F. The collective effect of finite-sized inhomogeneities on the spatial spread of populations in two dimensions. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210579. [PMID: 34665975 PMCID: PMC8526172 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The dynamics of a population expanding into unoccupied habitat has been primarily studied for situations in which growth and dispersal parameters are uniform in space or vary in one dimension. Here, we study the influence of finite-sized individual inhomogeneities and their collective effect on front speed if randomly placed in a two-dimensional habitat. We use an individual-based model to investigate the front dynamics for a region in which dispersal or growth of individuals is reduced to zero (obstacles) or increased above the background (hotspots), respectively. In a regime where front dynamics is determined by a local front speed only, a principle of least time can be employed to predict front speed and shape. The resulting analytical solutions motivate an event-based algorithm illustrating the effects of several obstacles or hotspots. We finally apply the principle of least time to large heterogeneous environments by solving the Eikonal equation numerically. Obstacles lead to a slow-down that is dominated by the number density and width of obstacles, but not by their precise shape. Hotspots result in a speed-up, which we characterize as function of hotspot strength and density. Our findings emphasize the importance of taking the dimensionality of the environment into account.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wolfram Möbius
- Living Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Physics and Astronomy, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.,Department of Applied Physics, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.,Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Francesca Tesser
- Department of Applied Physics, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.,PMMH, ESPCI Paris-PSL, Paris, France
| | - Kim M J Alards
- Department of Applied Physics, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Roberto Benzi
- Universitá di Roma 'Tor Vergata' and INFN, Rome, Italy
| | - David R Nelson
- Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.,Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Federico Toschi
- Department of Applied Physics, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.,Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome, Italy
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Pease JE, Grabowski TB, Pease AA, Bean PT. Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:8508-8522. [PMID: 30250719 PMCID: PMC6145027 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Revised: 05/25/2018] [Accepted: 05/31/2018] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica E. Pease
- Texas Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research UnitTexas Tech UniversityLubbockTexas
| | - Timothy B. Grabowski
- U.S. Geological SurveyTexas Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research UnitTexas Tech UniversityLubbockTexas
- Present address:
U.S. Geological SurveyHawaii Cooperative Fishery Research UnitUniversity of Hawaii at HiloHiloHawaii
| | - Allison A. Pease
- Department of Natural Resources ManagementTexas Tech UniversityLubbockTexas
| | - Preston T. Bean
- Heart of the Hills Fisheries Science CenterTexas Parks and WildlifeMountain HomeTexas
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6
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Garnier J, Lewis MA. Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences. Bull Math Biol 2016; 78:2165-2185. [PMID: 27743309 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-016-0213-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2016] [Accepted: 09/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jimmy Garnier
- LAMA, CNRS - Université Savoie Mont-Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France.
| | - Mark A Lewis
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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7
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Barros C, Palmer SCF, Bocedi G, Travis JMJ. Spread rates on fragmented landscapes: the interacting roles of demography, dispersal and habitat availability. DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ceres Barros
- Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA) University of Grenoble Alpes F‐38000 Grenoble France
- Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine (LECA) CNRS F‐38000 Grenoble France
| | - Stephen C. F. Palmer
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Justin M. J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Zoology Building Tillydrone Avenue Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
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8
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Nabel JE, Kirchner JW, Zurbriggen N, Kienast F, Lischke H. Extrapolation methods for climate time series revisited – Spatial correlations in climatic fluctuations influence simulated tree species abundance and migration. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.02.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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9
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Heikkinen RK, Bocedi G, Kuussaari M, Heliölä J, Leikola N, Pöyry J, Travis JMJ. Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion. PLoS One 2014; 9:e108436. [PMID: 25265281 PMCID: PMC4180940 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2014] [Accepted: 08/26/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species’ capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Risto K Heikkinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Niko Leikola
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Justin M J Travis
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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10
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Abstract
Plants and animals have responded to past climate changes by migrating with habitable environments, sometimes shifting the boundaries of their geographic ranges by tens of kilometers per year or more. Species migrating in response to present climate conditions, however, must contend with landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance. We consider this problem in the context of wind-dispersed tree species. Mechanisms of long-distance seed dispersal make these species capable of rapid migration rates. Models of species-front migration suggest that even tree species with the capacity for long-distance dispersal will be unable to keep pace with future spatial changes in temperature gradients, exclusive of habitat fragmentation effects. Here we present a numerical model that captures the salient dynamics of migration by long-distance dispersal for a generic tree species. We then use the model to explore the possible effects of assisted colonization within a fragmented landscape under a simulated tree-planting scheme. Our results suggest that an assisted-colonization program could accelerate species-front migration rates enough to match the speed of climate change, but such a program would involve an environmental-sustainability intervention at a massive scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eli D. Lazarus
- Environmental Dynamics Lab, Earth Surface Processes Group, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, United Kingdom
| | - Brian J. McGill
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, United States of America
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11
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Bourne EC, Bocedi G, Travis JMJ, Pakeman RJ, Brooker RW, Schiffers K. Between migration load and evolutionary rescue: dispersal, adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to environmental change. Proc Biol Sci 2014; 281:20132795. [PMID: 24452022 PMCID: PMC3906938 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2013] [Accepted: 12/13/2013] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The evolutionary potential of populations is mainly determined by population size and available genetic variance. However, the adaptability of spatially structured populations may also be affected by dispersal: positively by spreading beneficial mutations across sub-populations, but negatively by moving locally adapted alleles between demes. We develop an individual-based, two-patch, allelic model to investigate the balance between these opposing effects on a population's evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Individual fitness is controlled by two polygenic traits coding for local adaptation either to the environment or to climate. Under conditions of selection that favour the evolution of a generalist phenotype (i.e. weak divergent selection between patches) dispersal has an overall positive effect on the persistence of the population. However, when selection favours locally adapted specialists, the beneficial effects of dispersal outweigh the associated increase in maladaptation for a narrow range of parameter space only (intermediate selection strength and low linkage among loci), where the spread of beneficial climate alleles is not strongly hampered by selection against non-specialists. Given that local selection across heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes is common, the complex effect of dispersal that we describe will play an important role in determining the evolutionary dynamics of many species under rapidly changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth C. Bourne
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK
- Institute für Biologie—Botanik, Freie Universität Berlin, Altensteinstrasse 6, Berlin 14195, Germany
| | - Greta Bocedi
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK
| | - Justin M. J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK
| | - Robin J. Pakeman
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK
| | - Rob W. Brooker
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK
| | - Katja Schiffers
- Evolution, Modeling and Analyses of Biodiversity group, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble Cedex 9, France
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12
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Hargreaves AL, Eckert CG. Evolution of dispersal and mating systems along geographic gradients: implications for shifting ranges. Funct Ecol 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.12170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Anna L. Hargreaves
- Department of Biology; Queen's University; Kingston Ontario K7L 3N6 Canada
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13
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Liao J, Li Z, Hiebeler DE, Iwasa Y, Bogaert J, Nijs I. Species persistence in landscapes with spatial variation in habitat quality: A pair approximation model. J Theor Biol 2013; 335:22-30. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.06.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2013] [Revised: 05/25/2013] [Accepted: 06/11/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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14
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Liao J, Li Z, Hiebeler DE, El-Bana M, Deckmyn G, Nijs I. Modelling plant population size and extinction thresholds from habitat loss and habitat fragmentation: Effects of neighbouring competition and dispersal strategy. Ecol Modell 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.07.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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15
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Svenning JC, Sandel B. Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2013; 100:1266-86. [PMID: 23757445 DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1200469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE OF THE STUDY Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories. METHODS We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50-200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology. KEY RESULTS The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement. CONCLUSIONS The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jens-Christian Svenning
- Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
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16
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Damken C, Perry GLW, Beggs JR. Complex habitat changes along elevational gradients interact with resource requirements of insect specialist herbivores. Ecosphere 2012. [DOI: 10.1890/es12-00216.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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Bocedi G, Pe’er G, Heikkinen RK, Matsinos Y, Travis JMJ. Projecting species’ range expansion dynamics: sources of systematic biases when scaling up patterns and processes. Methods Ecol Evol 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00235.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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18
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Bocedi G, Heinonen J, Travis JMJ. Uncertainty and the Role of Information Acquisition in the Evolution of Context-Dependent Emigration. Am Nat 2012; 179:606-20. [DOI: 10.1086/665004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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19
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Bartoń KA, Hovestadt T, Phillips BL, Travis JMJ. Risky movement increases the rate of range expansion. Proc Biol Sci 2011; 279:1194-202. [PMID: 21957132 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.1254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The movement rules used by an individual determine both its survival and dispersal success. Here, we develop a simple model that links inter-patch movement behaviour with population dynamics in order to explore how individual dispersal behaviour influences not only its dispersal and survival, but also the population's rate of range expansion. Whereas dispersers are most likely to survive when they follow nearly straight lines and rapidly orient movement towards a non-natal patch, the most rapid rates of range expansion are obtained for trajectories in which individuals delay biasing their movement towards a non-natal patch. This result is robust to the spatial structure of the landscape. Importantly, in a set of evolutionary simulations, we also demonstrate that the movement strategy that evolves at an expanding front is much closer to that maximizing the rate of range expansion than that which maximizes the survival of dispersers. Our results suggest that if one of our conservation goals is the facilitation of range-shifting, then current indices of connectivity need to be complemented by the development and utilization of new indices providing a measure of the ease with which a species spreads across a landscape.
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Affiliation(s)
- K A Bartoń
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Biozentrum, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany.
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20
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Hodgson JA, Thomas CD, Cinderby S, Cambridge H, Evans P, Hill JK. Habitat re-creation strategies for promoting adaptation of species to climate change. Conserv Lett 2011. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-263x.2011.00177.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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Hodgson JA, Kunin WE, Thomas CD, Benton TG, Gabriel D. Comparing organic farming and land sparing: optimizing yield and butterfly populations at a landscape scale. Ecol Lett 2010; 13:1358-67. [PMID: 20825453 DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01528.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 124] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Organic farming aims to be wildlife-friendly, but it may not benefit wildlife overall if much greater areas are needed to produce a given quantity of food. We measured the density and species richness of butterflies on organic farms, conventional farms and grassland nature reserves in 16 landscapes. Organic farms supported a higher density of butterflies than conventional farms, but a lower density than reserves. Using our data, we predict the optimal land-use strategy to maintain yield whilst maximizing butterfly abundance under different scenarios. Farming conventionally and sparing land as nature reserves is better for butterflies when the organic yield per hectare falls below 87% of conventional yield. However, if the spared land is simply extra field margins, organic farming is optimal whenever organic yields are over 35% of conventional yields. The optimal balance of land sparing and wildlife-friendly farming to maintain production and biodiversity will differ between landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenny A Hodgson
- Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology, LC Miall Building, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
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McInerny GJ, Turner JRG, Wong HY, Travis JMJ, Benton TG. How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution. Proc Biol Sci 2009; 276:1527-34. [PMID: 19324824 PMCID: PMC2677231 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.1567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects ('mutation surfing'), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations 'wipe out'). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.
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Affiliation(s)
- G J McInerny
- Computational Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Microsoft Research Limited, 7 JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FB, UK.
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24
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Abstract
Dispersal is a key component of a species's ecology and will be under different selection pressures in different parts of the range. For example, a long-distance dispersal strategy suitable for continuous habitat at the range core might not be favoured at the margin, where the habitat is sparse. Using a spatially explicit, individual-based, evolutionary simulation model, the dispersal strategies of an organism that has only one dispersal event in its lifetime, such as a plant or sessile animal, are considered. Within the model, removing habitat, increasing habitat turnover, increasing the cost of dispersal, reducing habitat quality or altering vital rates imposes range limits. In most cases, there is a clear change in the dispersal strategies across the range, although increasing death rate towards the margin has little impact on evolved dispersal strategy across the range. Habitat turnover, reduced birth rate and reduced habitat quality all increase evolved dispersal distances at the margin, while increased cost of dispersal and reduced habitat density lead to lower evolved dispersal distances at the margins. As climate change shifts suitable habitat poleward, species ranges will also start to shift, and it will be the dispersal capabilities of marginal populations, rather than core populations, that will influence the rate of range shifting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology, University of York, York YO10 5YW, UK.
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25
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Mustin K, Benton TG, Dytham C, Travis JMJ. The dynamics of climate-induced range shifting; perspectives from simulation modelling. OIKOS 2009. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.17025.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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26
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Landscape structure and boundary effects determine the fate of mutations occurring during range expansions. Heredity (Edinb) 2008; 101:329-40. [PMID: 18594561 DOI: 10.1038/hdy.2008.56] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The interplay between the spatial dynamics of range expansion and evolutionary processes is receiving considerable attention. Recent theory has demonstrated that mutations occurring towards the front of a spatially expanding population can sometimes 'surf' to high frequency and spatial extent. Here, we extend this work to consider how the fate of a novel mutation is influenced by where and when it occurs. Specifically, we are interested in establishing how the origin of a mutation relative to a habitat edge influences its dynamics, and in understanding how this is mediated by the behaviour of individuals at those boundaries. Using a coupled-map lattice model, we demonstrate that the survival probability, abundance and spatial extent of surviving mutants can depend on their origin. An edge effect is often observed and can be quite different both qualitatively and quantitatively depending on the behavioural rules assumed. Mutations, especially those that are deleterious, that arise at a habitat edge with reflective boundary conditions can be many more times likely to survive for substantial periods of time than those that arise away from the edge. Conversely, with absorbing boundary conditions, their survival is greater when they arise well away from the edge. Our results clearly illustrate that landscape structure, habitat edges and boundary conditions have a considerable influence on the likely fate of mutations that occur during a period of range expansion.
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Influence of the physical environment and conspecific aggression on the spatial arrangement of breeding grey seals. ECOL INFORM 2007. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2007.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Holland EP, Aegerter JN, Dytham C, Smith GC. Landscape as a model: the importance of geometry. PLoS Comput Biol 2007; 3:1979-92. [PMID: 17967050 PMCID: PMC2041976 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2006] [Accepted: 09/04/2007] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
In all models, but especially in those used to predict uncertain processes (e.g., climate change and nonnative species establishment), it is important to identify and remove any sources of bias that may confound results. This is critical in models designed to help support decisionmaking. The geometry used to represent virtual landscapes in spatially explicit models is a potential source of bias. The majority of spatial models use regular square geometry, although regular hexagonal landscapes have also been used. However, there are other ways in which space can be represented in spatially explicit models. For the first time, we explicitly compare the range of alternative geometries available to the modeller, and present a mechanism by which uncertainty in the representation of landscapes can be incorporated. We test how geometry can affect cell-to-cell movement across homogeneous virtual landscapes and compare regular geometries with a suite of irregular mosaics. We show that regular geometries have the potential to systematically bias the direction and distance of movement, whereas even individual instances of landscapes with irregular geometry do not. We also examine how geometry can affect the gross representation of real-world landscapes, and again show that individual instances of regular geometries will always create qualitative and quantitative errors. These can be reduced by the use of multiple randomized instances, though this still creates scale-dependent biases. In contrast, virtual landscapes formed using irregular geometries can represent complex real-world landscapes without error. We found that the potential for bias caused by regular geometries can be effectively eliminated by subdividing virtual landscapes using irregular geometry. The use of irregular geometry appears to offer spatial modellers other potential advantages, which are as yet underdeveloped. We recommend their use in all spatially explicit models, but especially for predictive models that are used in decisionmaking. Many different areas of science try to simulate and predict (model) how processes act across virtual landscapes. Sometimes these models are abstract, but often they are based on real-world landscapes and are used to make real-world planning or management decisions. We considered two separate issues: how movement occurs across landscapes and how uncertainty in spatial data can be represented in the model. Most studies represent the landscape using regular geometries (e.g., squares and hexagons), but we generated landscapes of irregular shapes. We tested and compared how the shapes that make up a landscape affected cell-to-cell movement across it. All of the virtual landscapes formed with regular geometries had the potential to bias the direction and distance of movement. Those formed with irregular geometry did not. We have also shown that describing whole real-world landscapes with regular geometries will lead to errors and bias, whereas virtual landscapes formed with irregular geometries are free from both. We recommend the use of multiple versions of virtual landscapes formed using irregular geometries for all spatially explicit models as a way of minimizing this source of bias and error; this is especially relevant in predictive models (e.g., climate change) that are difficult to test and are designed to help make decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. Penelope Holland
- Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - James N Aegerter
- Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom
- * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
| | - Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology, University of York, York, United Kingdom
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Graham C Smith
- Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom
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