Quantifying national and regional cyanobacterial occurrence in US lakes using satellite remote sensing

Assessing the relationship between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory-related hospital visits: Green bay, Wisconsin 2017-2019

Potential acute and chronic human health effects associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, including respiratory symptoms, are an understudied public health concern. We examined the relationship between estimated cyanobacteria biomass and the frequency of respiratory-related hospital visits for residents living near Green Bay, Lake Michigan, Wisconsin during 2017-2019. Remote sensing data from the Cyanobacteria Assessment Network was used to approximate cyanobacteria exposure through creation of a metric for cyanobacteria chlorophyll-a (ChlBS). We obtained counts of hospital visits for asthma, wheezing, and allergic rhinitis from the Wisconsin Hospital Association for ZIP codes within a 3-mile radius of Green Bay. We analyzed weekly counts of hospital visits versus cyanobacteria, which was modelled as a continuous measure (ChlBS) or categorized according to World Health Organization's (WHO) alert levels using Poisson generalized linear models. Our data included 2743 individual hospital visits and 114 weeks of satellite derived cyanobacteria biomass indicator data. Peak values of ChlBS were observed between the months of June and October. Using the WHO alert levels, 60% of weeks were categorized as no risk, 19% as Vigilance Level, 15% as Alert Level 1, and 6% as Alert Level 2. In Poisson regression models adjusted for temperature, dewpoint, season, and year, there was no association between ChlBS and hospital visits (rate ratio [RR] [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.98 [0.77, 1.24]). There was also no consistent association between WHO alert level and hospital visits when adjusting for covariates (Vigilance Level: RR [95% CI] 0.88 [0.74, 1.05], Alert Level 1: 0.82 [0.67, 0.99], Alert Level 2: 0.98 [0.77, 1.24], compared to the reference no risk category). Our methodology and model provide a template for future studies that assess the association between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory health.

Forecasting freshwater cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms for Sentinel-3 satellite resolved U.S. lakes and reservoirs

This forecasting approach may be useful for water managers and associated public health managers to predict near-term future high-risk cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) occurrence. Freshwater cyanoHABs may grow to excessive concentrations and cause human, animal, and environmental health concerns in lakes and reservoirs. Knowledge of the timing and location of cyanoHAB events is important for water quality management of recreational and drinking water systems. No quantitative tool exists to forecast cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Publicly available satellite monitoring has proven effective in detecting cyanobacteria biomass near-real time within the United States. Weekly cyanobacteria abundance was quantified from the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard the Sentinel-3 satellite as the response variable. An Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model was applied to forecast World Health Organization (WHO) recreation Alert Level 1 exceedance >12 μg L-1 chlorophyll-a with cyanobacteria dominance for 2192 satellite resolved lakes in the United States across nine climate zones. The INLA model was compared against support vector classifier and random forest machine learning models; and Dense Neural Network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Gneural Network (GNU) neural network models. Predictors were limited to data sources relevant to cyanobacterial growth, readily available on a weekly basis, and at the national scale for operational forecasting. Relevant predictors included water surface temperature, precipitation, and lake geomorphology. Overall, the INLA model outperformed the machine learning and neural network models with prediction accuracy of 90% with 88% sensitivity, 91% specificity, and 49% precision as demonstrated by training the model with data from 2017 through 2020 and independently assessing predictions with data from the 2021 calendar year. The probability of true positive responses was greater than false positive responses and the probability of true negative responses was less than false negative responses. This indicated the model correctly assigned lower probabilities of events when they didn't exceed the WHO Alert Level 1 threshold and assigned higher probabilities when events did exceed the threshold. The INLA model was robust to missing data and unbalanced sampling between waterbodies.

Recent changes in cyanobacteria algal bloom magnitude in large lakes across the contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25 %) lakes in the 2016-2020 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4 %). Bloom magnitude either didn't change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n = 1335, 71 %). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

Ground-based remote sensing provides alternative to satellites for monitoring cyanobacteria in small lakes

Cyanobacteria are the most prevalent bloom-forming harmful algae in freshwater systems around the world. Adequate sampling of affected systems is limited spatially, temporally, and fiscally. Remote sensing using space- or ground-based systems in large water bodies at spatial and temporal scales that are cost-prohibitive to standard water quality monitoring has proven to be useful in detecting and quantifying cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. This study aimed to identify a regional 'universal' multispectral reflectance model that could be used for rapid, remote detection and quantification of cyanoHABs in small- to medium-sized productive reservoirs, such as those typical of Oklahoma, USA. We aimed to include these small waterbodies in our study as they are typically overlooked in larger, continental wide studies, yet are widely distributed and used for recreation and drinking water supply. We used Landsat satellite reflectance and in-situ pigment data spanning 16 years from 38 reservoirs in Oklahoma to construct empirical linear models for predicting concentrations of chlorophyll-a and phycocyanin, two key algal pigments commonly used for assessing total and cyanobacterial algal abundances, respectively. We also used ground-based hyperspectral reflectance and in-situ pigment data from seven reservoirs across five years in Oklahoma to build multispectral models predicting algal pigments from newly defined reflectance bands. Our Oklahoma-derived Landsat- and ground-based models outperformed established reflectance-pigment models on Oklahoma reservoirs. Importantly, our results demonstrate that ground-based multispectral models were far superior to Landsat-based models and the Cyanobacteria Index (CI) for detecting cyanoHABs in highly productive, small- to mid-sized reservoirs in Oklahoma, providing a valuable tool for water management and public health. While satellite-based remote sensing approaches have proven effective for relatively large systems, our novel results indicate that ground-based remote sensing may offer better cyanoHAB monitoring for small or highly dendritic turbid lakes, such as those throughout the southern Great Plains, and thus prove beneficial to efforts aimed at minimizing public health risks associated with cyanoHABs in supply and recreational waters.

Spatial and temporal characterization of cyanobacteria blooms in the Mississippi Sound and their relationship to the Bonnet Carré Spillway openings

During the spring and summer of 2019, an unprecedented cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) was responsible for beach advisories on 25 beaches along the Mississippi Sound for over 3 months. Due to the preceding heavy rainfall and flooding within the Mississippi River watershed, for the first time in history, the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) opened twice in one year during 2019. The coastal cyanoHAB coincided with the second BCS opening. The main objectives of this study were: (1) to investigate the potential for using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ocean color standard Cyanobacteria Index (CIcyano) algorithm to characterize the spatial and temporal extent of the 2019 cyanoHAB; (2) to couple the CIcyano data with river discharge, salinity, and modeled-wind data to study the conditions leading to the cyanoHAB and factors aiding the advection and persistence of the bloom within the Mississippi Sound, including a possible relationship to the BCS; (3) to further investigate the relationship with the BCS by repeating the methods using data from 2018, which was a year when the BCS was opened but no evidence of cyanoHABs was reported along the Mississippi coast. Weekly means and monthly frequency CIcyano images, river discharge, salinity, and modeled-wind data from February to September of 2018 and 2019 were analyzed, which coincide with three BCS openings. In March 2018, a cyanobacteria bloom was observed within Lake Pontchartrain coinciding with the BCS opening; however, the month-long bloom was contained to the lake. Two distinct cyanoHABs were observed in 2019 and both blooms were advected into the Mississippi Sound, and likely contributed to the 3-month-long beach water advisories of 2019 along the Mississippi coastline. From March to mid-July 2019, salinity at stations within the Mississippi Sound was consistently near zero indicating high levels of freshwater. During that time, winds were predominantly northwestward, preventing the BCS waters from flushing into the Mississippi Shelf and resulting in BCS waters remaining longer within the estuarine lakes and Mississippi Sound. Although the BCS had an undeniable impact on the presence of the coastal cyanoHAB of 2019, other variables including wind direction, water flow, mixing, and persistence of freshwater within the Sound can determine the intensity and extent of the cyanoHABs. Coupling in situ phytoplankton information from freshwater water bodies to the marine continuum along with water flow, wind data, and satellite imagery could help identify cyanoHABs at early stages and forecast their trajectory and potential impacts on coastal areas.

Efficacy of algaecides for the proactive treatment of overwintering cyanobacteria

Once established within a water resource, harmful algal blooms (HABs) can occur seasonally with an intense and rapid onset, giving water resource managers limited time to respond to lessen risks. An attractive strategy to decrease human, ecological, and economic risks from HABs is to implement proactive algaecide treatments applied to overwintering cyanobacteria (i.e., akinetes and quiescent vegetative cells) in sediments prior to the formation of a HAB; however, this approach is novel and very limited efficacy data exist. Therefore, the specific objectives of this research were to 1) evaluate copper- and peroxide-based algaecides, applied as single and repeat treatments at the bench scale, to identify effective proactive treatments, and 2) compare correlations between cell density and other response measurements (i.e., in vivo chlorophyll a and phycocyanin concentrations and percent benthic coverage), to identify informative metrics to assess overwintering cyanobacteria responses. Twelve treatment scenarios using copper- and peroxide-based algaecides were applied to sediments containing overwintering cyanobacteria prior to a 14 d incubation under favorable growth conditions. Responses of cyanobacteria in the planktonic (i.e., cell density, in vivo chlorophyll a and phycocyanin concentrations) and benthic (percent coverage) phases after a 14 d incubation were evaluated in treatments and controls. The HAB-forming cyanobacteria present after a 14 d incubation were: Aphanizomenon, Dolichospermum, Microcystis, Nostoc, and Planktonthrix. Successive treatments of copper sulfate (CuSulfate) followed by sodium carbonate peroxyhydrate (PeroxiSolid) (second algaecide applied after 24 h) as well as repeat applications of a single algaecide, PeroxiSolid (second treatment applied after 24 h) resulted in statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05; α = 0.05) declines in cell density relative to untreated controls. Planktonic cyanobacteria responses measured in terms of phycocyanin concentrations were strongly correlated with cyanobacteria density measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) = 0.89). Chlorophyll a concentrations and percent benthic coverage did not correlate with planktonic cyanobacteria density measurements (r = 0.37 and -0.49, respectively) and therefore, were unreliable metrics for cyanobacterial responses in this study. These data provide initial evidence of the efficacy of algaecides for treating overwintering cells in sediments and contribute to our overarching hypothesis that proactive treatments may delay the onset and intensity of HABs in impacted waterbodies.

Wildfires in the western United States are mobilizing PM2.5-associated nutrients and may be contributing to downwind cyanobacteria blooms

Wildfire activity is increasing in the continental U.S. and can be linked to climate change effects, including rising temperatures and more frequent drought conditions. Wildfire emissions and large fire frequency have increased in the western U.S., impacting human health and ecosystems. We linked 15 years (2006-2020) of particulate matter (PM2.5) chemical speciation data with smoke plume analysis to identify PM2.5-associated nutrients elevated in air samples on smoke-impacted days. Most macro- and micro-nutrients analyzed (phosphorus, calcium, potassium, sodium, silicon, aluminum, iron, manganese, and magnesium) were significantly elevated on smoke days across all years analyzed. The largest percent increase was observed for phosphorus. With the exception of ammonium, all other nutrients (nitrate, copper, and zinc), although not statistically significant, had higher median values across all years on smoke vs. non-smoke days. Not surprisingly, there was high variation between smoke impacted days, with some nutrients episodically elevated >10 000% during select fire events. Beyond nutrients, we also explored instances where algal blooms occurred in multiple lakes downwind from high-nutrient fires. In these cases, remotely sensed cyanobacteria indices in downwind lakes increased two to seven days following the occurrence of wildfire smoke above the lake. This suggests that elevated nutrients in wildfire smoke may contribute to downwind algal blooms. Since cyanobacteria blooms can be associated with the production of cyanotoxins and wildfire activity is increasing due to climate change, this finding has implications for drinking water reservoirs in the western United States, and for lake ecology, particularly alpine lakes with otherwise limited nutrient inputs.

Identifying lakes at risk of toxic cyanobacterial blooms using satellite imagery and field surveys across the United States

Harmful algal blooms caused by cyanobacteria are a threat to global water resources and human health. Satellite remote sensing has vastly expanded spatial and temporal data on lake cyanobacteria, yet there is still acute need for tools that identify which waterbodies are at-risk for toxic cyanobacterial blooms. Algal toxins cannot be directly detected through imagery but monitoring toxins associated with cyanobacterial blooms is critical for assessing risk to the environment, animals, and people. The objective of this study is to address this need by developing an approach relating satellite imagery on cyanobacteria with field surveys to model the risk of toxic blooms among lakes. The Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and United States (US) National Lakes Assessments are leveraged to model the probability among lakes of exceeding lower and higher demonstration thresholds for microcystin toxin, cyanobacteria, and chlorophyll a. By leveraging the large spatial variation among lakes using two national-scale data sources, rather than focusing on temporal variability, this approach avoids many of the previous challenges in relating satellite imagery to cyanotoxins. For every satellite-derived lake-level Cyanobacteria Index (CI_cyano) increase of 0.01 CI_cyano/km2, the odds of exceeding six bloom thresholds increased by 23-54 %. When the models were applied to the 2192 satellite monitored lakes in the US, the number of lakes identified with ≥75 % probability of exceeding the thresholds included as many as 335 lakes for the lower thresholds and 70 lakes for the higher thresholds, respectively. For microcystin, the models identified 162 and 70 lakes with ≥75 % probability of exceeding the lower (0.2 μg/L) and higher (1.0 μg/L) thresholds, respectively. This approach represents a critical advancement in using satellite imagery and field data to identify lakes at risk for developing toxic cyanobacteria blooms. Such models can help translate satellite data to aid water quality monitoring and management.

Satellite and in situ cyanobacteria monitoring: Understanding the impact of monitoring frequency on management decisions

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) in reservoirs can be transported to downstream waters via scheduled discharges. Transport dynamics are difficult to capture in traditional cyanoHAB monitoring, which can be spatially disparate and temporally discontinuous. The introduction of satellite remote sensing for cyanoHAB monitoring provides opportunities to detect where cyanoHABs occur in relation to reservoir release locations, like canal inlets. The study objectives were to assess (1) differences in reservoir cyanoHAB frequencies as determined by in situ and remotely sensed data and (2) the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify conditions associated with release-driven cyanoHAB export. As a representative case, Lake Okeechobee and the St. Lucie Estuary (Florida, USA), which receives controlled releases from Lake Okeechobee, were examined. Both systems are impacted by cyanoHABs, and the St. Lucie Estuary experienced states of emergency for extreme cyanoHABs in 2016 and 2018. Using the European Space Agency's Sentinel-3 OLCI imagery processed with the Cyanobacteria Index (CI cyano ), cyanoHAB frequencies across Lake Okeechobee from May 2016-April 2021 were compared to frequencies from in situ data. Strong agreement was observed in frequency rankings between the in situ and remotely sensed data in capturing intra-annual variability in bloom frequencies across Lake Okeechobee (Kendall's tau = 0.85, p-value = 0.0002), whereas no alignment was observed when evaluating inter-annual variation (Kendall's tau = 0, p-value = 1). Further, remotely sensed observations revealed that cyanoHABs were highly frequent near the inlet to the canal connecting Lake Okeechobee to the St. Lucie Estuary in state-of-emergency years, a pattern not evident from in situ data alone. This study demonstrates how remote sensing can complement traditional cyanoHAB monitoring to inform reservoir release decision making.

Cyanobacterial Algal Bloom Monitoring: Molecular Methods and Technologies for Freshwater Ecosystems

Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) can accumulate to form harmful algal blooms (HABs) on the surface of freshwater ecosystems under eutrophic conditions. Extensive HAB events can threaten local wildlife, public health, and the utilization of recreational waters. For the detection/quantification of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, both the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and Health Canada increasingly indicate that molecular methods can be useful. However, each molecular detection method has specific advantages and limitations for monitoring HABs in recreational water ecosystems. Rapidly developing modern technologies, including satellite imaging, biosensors, and machine learning/artificial intelligence, can be integrated with standard/conventional methods to overcome the limitations associated with traditional cyanobacterial detection methodology. We examine advances in cyanobacterial cell lysis methodology and conventional/modern molecular detection methods, including imaging techniques, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/DNA sequencing, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), mass spectrometry, remote sensing, and machine learning/AI-based prediction models. This review focuses specifically on methodologies likely to be employed for recreational water ecosystems, especially in the Great Lakes region of North America.

Monitoring trophic status using in situ data and Sentinel-2 MSI algorithm: lesson from Lake Malombe, Malawi

With excessive nutrient enrichment exacerbated by anthropogenic drivers, many standing water bodies are changing from oligotrophic to mesotrophic, eutrophic, and finally hypertrophic-negatively affecting ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and human populations. Efforts have been devoted to developing novel algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a (chl-a), cyno-blooms, and floating vegetation. However, to this date, little research has focused on freshwater lakes in the data-scarce Sub-Saharan African countries such as Malawi. We, therefore, estimated the trophic status of Lake Malombe in Malawi-a lake likely to be affected by eutrophication and algal bloom-emerging threats to freshwater ecosystem functioning globally-especially with the onset of climatic and anthropogenic drivers. We integrated in situ data with high-resolution Sentinel-2 Multispectral Imagery Analysis (MSI). We independently assessed the remote sensing technique using in situ data and tested the model at multiple stages. The scatter plot showed that most points were in the 95% confidence interval. The validation results between the measured in situ chl-a concentrations and the Sentinel-2 MSI-based chl-a retrieval had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.88 µg/L. The chl-a concentrations retrieved from MSI images were consistent with in situ data, indicating that the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) algorithm estimated chl-a concentrations in Lake Malombe with acceptable accuracy. Dissolved oxygen (DO), sulfate (SO₄^2-), nitrite [Formula: see text], soluble reactive phosphorous [Formula: see text]), total dissolved solids (TDS), and chl-a, except for temperatures from the hot-dry-season, cold-dry-windy-season, and rainy-season, were significantly different (P < 0.05). The Sentinel-2 MSI imagery analysis also depicted similar results, with high chl-a concentration reported in March (rainy season) and October (hot-dry season) and the lowest from May to August (cold-dry-windy season). On the contrary, the ANOVA results for water quality parameters from all five points had P > 0.05. The correlation matrix showed coefficients of (0.798 < r < 0.930, n = 30, P < 0.005), suggesting that Lake Malombe is homogenous. Our results demonstrate that integrating remote sensing based on MSI imagery and in situ data to estimate chl-a can provide an effective tool for monitoring eutrophication in small, medium, and large standing waterbodies-crucial information required to respond to global ecological and climatic dynamics.

Incorporating Microbial Species Interaction in Management of Freshwater Toxic Cyanobacteria: A Systems Science Challenge

Water resources are critically important, but also pose risks of exposure to toxic and pathogenic microbes. Increasingly, a concern is toxic cyanobacteria, which have been linked to the death and disease of humans, domesticated animals, and wildlife in freshwater systems worldwide. Management approaches successful at reducing cyanobacterial abundance and toxin production have tended to be short-term solutions applied on small scales (e.g., algaecide application) or solutions that entail difficult multifaceted investments (e.g., modification of landscape and land use to reduce nutrient inputs). However, implementation of these approaches can be undermined by microbial species interactions that (a) provide toxic cyanobacteria with protection against the method of control or (b) permit toxic cyanobacteria to be replaced by other significant microbial threats. Understanding these interactions is necessary to avoid such scenarios and can provide a framework for novel strategies to enhance freshwater resource management via systems science (e.g., pairing existing physical and chemical approaches against cyanobacteria with ecological strategies such as manipulation of natural enemies, targeting of facilitators, and reduction of benthic occupancy and recruitment). Here, we review pertinent examples of the interactions and highlight potential applications of what is known.

Opportunities for combining data of Estonian and Russian monitoring to reflect on water quality in large transboundary Lake Peipsi

Lake Peipsi, one of the world's largest lakes, is shared between Estonia and Russia. The water quality in different parts of the lake has so far been assessed independently. Here we explore opportunities for combining data of Estonian and Russian monitoring. For that, we 1) analysed the compatibility of data for some water quality variables; 2) estimated the potential effects of the differences in sampling frequency; 3) provided a few regression models to calculate the missing data for months not sampled by the Russian side. Data of the concurrent Estonian and Russian sampling indicated a good compatibility. Estonian data analysis suggested that water quality assessment results are sensitive to sampling frequency. For example, total phosphorus (TP) in the largest basin showed a long-term decreasing trend in three month data that disappeared when data for other months were added. Disregarding some months may lead to under- or overestimation of certain factors with no consistency in the response of different basins. Hence, data of the whole ice-free period are recommended for an adequate water quality assessment. Furthermore, we demonstrated that monthly values of the water quality variables of the same year are autocorrelated. Based on this, we filled the gaps in the long-term data and compiled a dataset for the whole lake that enables its most comprehensive use in water quality assessment and management. Long-term data revealed no water quality improvement of Lake Peipsi. Further reduction of the external nutrient load is needed. Eutrophication is sustained by high internal phosphorus load.

Monitoring and control methods of harmful algal blooms in Chinese freshwater system: a review

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem with substantial adverse effects on the aquatic environment as well as human health, which have prompted researchers to study measures to stem and control them. Meanwhile, it is key to research and develop monitoring methods to establish early warning HABs. However, both the current monitoring methods and control methods have some shortcomings, making the field application limited. Thus, we need to improve current approaches for monitoring and controlling HABs efficiently. Based on the freshwater system features in China, we review various monitoring and control methods of HABs, summarize and discuss the problems with these methods, and propose the future development direction of monitoring and control HABs. Finally, we envision that it can combine physical, chemical, and biological methods to inhibit HAB expansion in the future, complementing each other with advantages. Further, we promise to establish a long-term strategy of controlling HABs with various algicidal bacteria co-cultivate for field applications in China. Efforts in studying algicidal bacteria must be increased to better control HABs and mitigate the risks of aquatic ecosystems and human health in China.

Satellites quantify the spatial extent of cyanobacterial blooms across the United States at multiple scales

Previous studies indicate that cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) frequency, extent, and magnitude have increased globally over the past few decades. However, little quantitative capability is available to assess these metrics of cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Here, the spatial extent was quantified from a cyanobacteria algorithm applied to two European Space Agency satellite platforms-the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) onboard Envisat and the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3. CyanoHAB spatial extent was defined for each geographic area as the percentage of valid satellite pixels that exhibited cyanobacteria above the detection limit of the satellite sensor. This study quantified cyanoHAB spatial extent for over 2,000 large lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous United States (CONUS) during two time periods: 2008-2011 via MERIS and 2017-2020 via OLCI when cloud-, ice-, and snow-free imagery was available. Approximately 56% of resolvable lakes were glaciated, 13% were headwater, isolated, or terminal lakes, and the rest were primarily drainage lakes. Results were summarized at national-, regional-, state-, and lake-scales, where regions were defined as nine climate regions which represent climatically consistent states. As measured by satellite, changes in national cyanoHAB extent did have a strong increase of 6.9% from 2017 to 2020 (|Kendall's tau (τ)| = 0.56; gamma (γ) = 2.87 years), but had negligible change (|τ| = 0.03) from 2008 to 2011. Two of the nine regions had moderate (0.3 ≤ |τ| < 0.5) increases in spatial extent from 2017 to 2020, and eight of nine regions had negligible (|τ| < 0.2) change from 2008 to 2011. Twelve states had a strong or moderate increase from 2017 to 2020 (|τ| ≥ 0.3), while only one state had a moderate increase and two states had a moderate decrease from 2008 to 2011. A decrease, or no change, in cyanoHAB spatial extent did not indicate a lack of issues related to cyanoHABs. Sensitivity results of randomly omitted daily CONUS scenes confirm that even with reduced data availability during a short four-year temporal assessment, the direction and strength of the changes in spatial extent remained consistent. We present the first set of national maps of lake cyanoHAB spatial extent across CONUS and demonstrate an approach for quantifying past and future changes at multiple spatial scales. Results presented here provide water quality managers information regarding current cyanoHAB spatial extent and quantify rates of change.

A validation of satellite derived cyanobacteria detections with state reported events and recreation advisories across U.S. lakes

Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) negatively affect ecological, human, and animal health. Traditional methods of validating satellite algorithms with data from water samples are often inhibited by the expense of quantifying cyanobacteria indicators in the field and the lack of public data. However, state recreation advisories and other recorded events of cyanoHAB occurrence reported by local authorities can serve as an independent and publicly available dataset for validation. State recreation advisories were defined as a period delimited by a start and end date where a warning was issued due to detections of cyanoHABs over a state's risk threshold. State reported events were defined as any event that was documented with a single date related to cyanoHABs. This study examined the presence-absence agreement between 160 state reported cyanoHAB advisories and 1,343 events and cyanobacteria biomass estimated by a satellite algorithm called the Cyanobacteria Index (CI_cyano). The true positive rate of agreement with state recreation advisories was 69% and 60% with state reported events. CI_cyano detected a reduction or absence in cyanobacteria after 76% of the recreation advisories ended. CI_cyano was used to quantify the magnitude, spatial extent, and temporal frequency of cyanoHABs; each of these three metrics were greater (r > 0.2) during state recreation advisories compared to non-advisory times with effect sizes ranging from small to large. This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate satellite algorithm performance for detecting cyanoHABs with state reported events and advisories and supports informed management decisions with satellite technologies that complement traditional field observations.

Satellite-derived cyanobacteria frequency and magnitude in headwaters & near-dam reservoir surface waters of the Southern U.S

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300 m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016-April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

Satellites for long-term monitoring of inland U.S. lakes: The MERIS time series and application for chlorophyll-a

Lakes and other surface fresh waterbodies provide drinking water, recreational and economic opportunities, food, and other critical support for humans, aquatic life, and ecosystem health. Lakes are also productive ecosystems that provide habitats and influence global cycles. Chlorophyll concentration provides a common metric of water quality, and is frequently used as a proxy for lake trophic state. Here, we document the generation and distribution of the complete MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS; Appendix A provides a complete list of abbreviations) radiometric time series for over 2300 satellite resolvable inland bodies of water across the contiguous United States (CONUS) and more than 5,000 in Alaska. This contribution greatly increases the ease of use of satellite remote sensing data for inland water quality monitoring, as well as highlights new horizons in inland water remote sensing algorithm development. We evaluate the performance of satellite remote sensing Cyanobacteria Index (CI)-based chlorophyll algorithms, the retrievals for which provide surrogate estimates of phytoplankton concentrations in cyanobacteria dominated lakes. Our analysis quantifies the algorithms' abilities to assess lake trophic state across the CONUS. As a case study, we apply a bootstrapping approach to derive a new CI-to-chlorophyll relationship, Chl_BS, which performs relatively well with a multiplicative bias of 1.11 (11%) and mean absolute error of 1.60 (60%). While the primary contribution of this work is the distribution of the MERIS radiometric timeseries, we provide this case study as a roadmap for future stakeholders' algorithm development activities, as well as a tool to assess the strengths and weaknesses of applying a single algorithm across CONUS.

Modeling Anthropogenic and Environmental Influences on Freshwater Harmful Algal Bloom Development Detected by MERIS Over the Central United States

Human and ecological health have been threatened by the increase of cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) in freshwater systems. Successful mitigation of this risk requires understanding the factors driving cyanoHABs at a broad scale. To inform management priorities and decisions, we employed random forest modeling to identify major cyanoHAB drivers in 369 freshwater lakes distributed across 15 upper Midwest states during the 2011 bloom season (July-October). We used Cyanobacteria Index (CI_cyano)-A remotely sensed product derived from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) aboard the European Space Agency's Envisat satellite-as the response variable to obtain variable importance metrics for 75 landscape and lake physiographic predictor variables. Lakes were stratified into high and low elevation categories to further focus CI_cyano variable importance identification by anthropogenic and natural influences. "High elevation" watershed land cover (LC) was primarily forest or natural vegetation, compared with "low elevation" watersheds LC dominated by anthropogenic landscapes (e.g., agriculture and municipalities). We used the top ranked 25 Random Forest variables to create a classification and regression tree (CART) for both low and high elevation lake designations to identify variable thresholds for possible management mitigation. Mean CI_cyano was 3 times larger for "low elevation" lakes than for "high elevation" lakes, with both mean values exceeding the "High" World Health Organization recreational guidance/action level threshold for cyanobacteria (100,000 cells/mL). Agrarian-related variables were prominent across all 369 lakes and low elevation lakes. High elevation lakes showed more influence of lakeside LC than for the low elevation lakes.

Satellite remote sensing to assess cyanobacterial bloom frequency across the United States at multiple spatial scales

Cyanobacterial blooms can have negative effects on human health and local ecosystems. Field monitoring of cyanobacterial blooms can be costly, but satellite remote sensing has shown utility for more efficient spatial and temporal monitoring across the United States. Here, satellite imagery was used to assess the annual frequency of surface cyanobacterial blooms, defined for each satellite pixel as the percentage of images for that pixel throughout the year exhibiting detectable cyanobacteria. Cyanobacterial frequency was assessed across 2,196 large lakes in 46 states across the continental United States (CONUS) using imagery from the European Space Agency's Ocean and Land Colour Instrument for the years 2017 through 2019. In 2019, across all satellite pixels considered, annual bloom frequency had a median value of 4% and a maximum value of 100%, the latter indicating that for those satellite pixels, a cyanobacterial bloom was detected by the satellite sensor for every satellite image considered. In addition to annual pixel-scale cyanobacterial frequency, results were summarized at the lake- and state-scales by averaging annual pixel-scale results across each lake and state. For 2019, average annual lake-scale frequencies also had a maximum value of 100%, and Oregon and Ohio had the highest average annual state-scale frequencies at 65% and 52%. Pixel-scale frequency results can assist in identifying portions of a lake that are more prone to cyanobacterial blooms, while lake- and state-scale frequency results can assist in the prioritization of sampling resources and mitigation efforts. Satellite imagery is limited by the presence of snow and ice, as imagery collected in these conditions are quality flagged and discarded. Thus, annual bloom frequencies within nine climate regions were investigated to determine whether missing data biased results in climate regions more prone to snow and ice, given that their annual summaries would be weighted toward the summer months when cyanobacterial blooms tend to occur. Results were unbiased by the time period selected in most climate regions, but a large bias was observed for the Northwest Rockies and Plains climate region. Moderate biases were observed for the Ohio Valley and the Southeast climate regions. Finally, a clustering analysis was used to identify areas of high and low cyanobacterial frequency across CONUS based on average annual lake-scale cyanobacterial frequencies for 2019. Several clusters were identified that transcended state, watershed, and eco-regional boundaries. Combined with additional data, results from the clustering analysis may offer insight regarding large-scale drivers of cyanobacterial blooms.

Characterization of Intracellular Structure Changes of Microcystis under Sonication Treatment by Polarized Light Scattering

Cyanobacterial bloom is one of the most urgent global environmental issues, which eventually could threaten human health and safety. Sonication treatment (ST) is a potential effective method to control cyanobacteria blooms in the field. Currently, the bottleneck of extensive application of ST is the difficulty to estimate the ST effect on the cyanobacterial cells and then determine suitable ST times in the field. In this study, cyanobacterial Microcystis samples sonicated at different times were first measured by a spectrophotometer to calculate the removal efficiency of Microcystis cells. Additionally, they were observed by TEM to reveal the intracellular structure changes of the cells. Then the samples were measured by an experimental setup based on polarized light scattering to measure the polarization parameters. Experimental results indicated that the polarization parameters can effectively characterize the intracellular structural changes of Microcystis cells with different ST times, which is quite consistent with the results for removal efficiency and TEM images. Further, the optimal ST time can be inferred by the polarization parameters. These results demonstrate that polarized light scattering can be a potentially powerful tool to explore suitable times for sonication treatment of cyanobacteria blooms.

Assessing cyanobacterial frequency and abundance at surface waters near drinking water intakes across the United States

This study presents the first large-scale assessment of cyanobacterial frequency and abundance of surface water near drinking water intakes across the United States. Public water systems serve drinking water to nearly 90% of the United States population. Cyanobacteria and their toxins may degrade the quality of finished drinking water and can lead to negative health consequences. Satellite imagery can serve as a cost-effective and consistent monitoring technique for surface cyanobacterial blooms in source waters and can provide drinking water treatment operators information for managing their systems. This study uses satellite imagery from the European Space Agency's Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) spanning June 2016 through April 2020. At 300-m spatial resolution, OLCI imagery can be used to monitor cyanobacteria in 685 drinking water sources across 285 lakes in 44 states, referred to here as resolvable drinking water sources. First, a subset of satellite data was compared to a subset of responses (n = 84) submitted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's fourth Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR 4). These UCMR 4 qualitative responses included visual observations of algal bloom presence and absence near drinking water intakes from March 2018 through November 2019. Overall agreement between satellite imagery and UCMR 4 qualitative responses was 94% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.70. Next, temporal frequency of cyanobacterial blooms at all resolvable drinking water sources was assessed. In 2019, bloom frequency averaged 2% and peaked at 100%, where 100% indicated a bloom was always present at the source waters when satellite imagery was available. Monthly cyanobacterial abundances were used to assess short-term trends across all resolvable drinking water sources and effect size was computed to provide insight on the number of years of data that must be obtained to increase confidence in an observed change. Generally, 2016 through 2020 was an insufficient time period for confidently observing changes at these source waters; on average, a decade of satellite imagery would be required for observed environmental trends to outweigh variability in the data. However, five source waters did demonstrate a sustained short-term trend, with one increasing in cyanobacterial abundance from June 2016 to April 2020 and four decreasing.

Acute health effects associated with satellite-determined cyanobacterial blooms in a drinking water source in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater presents a threat to human health. However, epidemiological studies on the association between cyanobacterial blooms in drinking water sources and human health outcomes are scarce. The objective of this study was to evaluate if cyanobacterial blooms were associated with increased emergency room visits for gastrointestinal (GI), respiratory and dermal illnesses.

METHODS

Satellite-derived cyanobacteria cell concentrations were estimated in the source of drinking water for the Greater Boston area, during 2008-2011. Daily counts of hospital emergency room visits for GI, respiratory and dermal illnesses among drinking water recipients were obtained from an administrative record database. A two-stage model was used to analyze time-series data for an association between cyanobacterial blooms and the occurrence of illnesses. At the first stage, predictive autoregressive generalized additive models for Poisson-distributed outcomes were fitted to daily illness count data and daily predictive variables. At the second stage, residuals from the first stage models were regressed against lagged categorized cyanobacteria concentration estimates.

RESULTS

The highest cyanobacteria concentration (above the 75th percentile) was associated with an additional 4.3 cases of respiratory illness (95% confidence interval: 0.7, 8.0, p = 0.02, n = 268) compared to cyanobacteria concentrations below the 50th percentile in a two-day lag. There were no significant associations between satellite derived cyanobacterial concentrations and lagged data on GI or dermal illnesses.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated a significant positive association between satellite-derived cyanobacteria concentrations in source water and respiratory illness occurring 2 days later. Future studies will require direct measures of cyanotoxins and health effects associated with exposure to cyanobacteria-impacted drinking water sources.

Evaluation of a satellite-based cyanobacteria bloom detection algorithm using field-measured microcystin data

Widespread occurrence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) and the associated health effects from potential cyanotoxin exposure has led to a need for systematic and frequent screening and monitoring of lakes that are used as recreational and drinking water sources. Remote sensing-based methods are often used for synoptic and frequent monitoring of CyanoHABs. In this study, one such algorithm - a sub-component of the Cyanobacteria Index called the CI_cyano, was validated for effectiveness in identifying lakes with toxin-producing blooms in 11 states across the contiguous United States over 11 bloom seasons (2005-2011, 2016-2019). A matchup data set was created using satellite data from MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and Ocean Land Colour Imager (OLCI), and nearshore, field-measured Microcystins (MCs) data as a proxy of CyanoHAB presence. While the satellite sensors cannot detect toxins, MCs are used as the indicator of health risk, and as a confirmation of cyanoHAB presence. MCs are also the most common laboratory measurement made by managers during CyanoHABs. Algorithm performance was evaluated by its ability to detect CyanoHAB 'Presence' or 'Absence', where the bloom is confirmed by the presence of the MCs. With same-day matchups, the overall accuracy of CyanoHAB detection was found to be 84% with precision and recall of 87 and 90% for bloom detection. Overall accuracy was expected to be between 77% and 87% (95% confidence) based on a bootstrapping simulation. These findings demonstrate that CI_cyano has utility for synoptic and routine monitoring of potentially toxic cyanoHABs in lakes across the United States.

Hot moments and hotspots of cyanobacteria hyperblooms in the Curonian Lagoon (SE Baltic Sea) revealed via remote sensing-based retrospective analysis

A temporally and spatially detailed historical (1985-2018) analysis of cyanobacteria blooms was performed in the Curonian Lagoon (Lithuania, Russia), the largest coastal lagoon in the Baltic Sea. Satellite data allowed the mapping of cyanobacteria surface accumulations, so-called "scums", and of chlorophyll-a concentration. The 34-year time series shows a tendency towards later occurrence (October-November) of the cyanobacteria scum presence, whereas the period of its onset (June-July) remains relatively constant. The periods when scums are present, "hot moments", have been consistently increasing in duration since 2008. The differences in the starting, ending and annual duration of cyanobacteria blooms have been significantly altered by hydro-meteorological conditions (river discharge, water temperature, and wind conditions) and their year-round patterns. The most important environmental factors that determined the temporal changes of the scum presence and area were the standing stock of cyanobacteria and the ambient wind conditions. The "hotspots", the areas where the blooms most likely occur, were distributed in the south-southwestern and central parts of the lagoon. The least affected areas were the northern part, which is connected to the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea, and the Nemunas River delta region. The longstanding, well-established spatial patterns of cyanobacteria blooms were linked to hydrodynamic features, namely water renewal time and current patterns, and to potential nutrient sources that included muddy sediments and the locations of colonies of piscivorous birds. Our findings confirmed that the annual and seasonal variations of cyanobacteria blooms and their regulation are a complex issue due to interactions between multiple factors over spatially and temporally broad scales. Despite great progress in the prevention and control of eutrophication and cyanobacteria blooms, the lagoon is still considered to be in a poor ecological status. This work provides a new and missing understanding on the spatial and temporal extent of cyanobacteria blooms and the factors that govern them. Such an understanding can help in planning management strategies, forecasting the magnitude and severity of blooms under changing nutrient loads and potential climate scenarios.

Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Forecasting High-Risk Freshwater Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms in Florida

Due to the occurrence of more frequent and widespread toxic cyanobacteria events, the ability to predict freshwater cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) is of critical importance for the management of drinking and recreational waters. Lake system specific geographic variation of cyanoHABs has been reported, but regional and state level variation is infrequently examined. A spatio-temporal modeling approach can be applied, via the computationally efficient Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), to high-risk cyanoHAB exceedance rates to explore spatio-temporal variations across statewide geographic scales. We explore the potential for using satellite-derived data and environmental determinants to develop a short-term forecasting tool for cyanobacteria presence at varying space-time domains for the state of Florida. Weekly cyanobacteria abundance data were obtained using Sentinel-3 Ocean Land Color Imagery (OLCI), for a period of May 2016-June 2019. Time and space varying covariates include surface water temperature, ambient temperature, precipitation, and lake geomorphology. The hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling approach in R-INLA represents a potential forecasting tool useful for water managers and associated public health applications for predicting near future high-risk cyanoHAB occurrence given the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events in the recent past. This method is robust to missing data and unbalanced sampling between waterbodies, both common issues in water quality datasets.

A risk assessment method for remote sensing of cyanobacterial blooms in inland waters

The widespread occurrence of Cyanobacterial blooms (CABs) in inland waters is a typical and severe challenge for water resources management and environment protection. An accurate and spatially continuous risk assessment of CABs is critical for prediction and preparedness in advance. In this study, a multivariate integrated risk assessment (MIRA) method of CABs in inland waters was proposed. MIRA was simplified with the trophic levels, cyanobacterial and other aquatic plant condition using remote sensing indexes, including the Trophic State Index (TSI), Floating Algae Index (FAI) and Cyanobacteria and Macrophytes Index (CMI). First, the dates of risk assessment were carefully selected based on TSI. Then, we obtained the trophic levels, cyanobacterial, and other aquatic plant condition of water using TSI, CMI and FAI on the selected date, and further scored them pixel by pixel to quantify the risk value. Finally, the risk of CABs in water was accurately assessed based on the pixel risk value. Based on Landsat 8 OLI dataset, MIRA was executed and validated in three different lakes of Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA) with different trophic states. The results demonstrated that the risk of CABs in Lake LongGan was overall higher than that in Lake LiangZi and Lake FuTou. And the risk of CABs in the east part of Lake LongGan was higher than the other parts. Seasonally, the risk level ranking in Lake LiangZi was the highest in summer, while lowest in winter. However, the seasonal risk ranking was spring, summer, autumn, and winter in Lake LongGan. Based on the comparisons with monthly water quality classification data and results of the existing study, including trophic level, ecology risk, and algal extent, the MIRA method was valuable for accurate and spatially continuous identifying the risk of CABs in inland waters with potential eutrophication trends.

Quantifying the Human Health Benefits of Using Satellite Information to Detect Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms and Manage Recreational Advisories in U.S. Lakes

Significant recent advances in satellite remote sensing allow environmental managers to detect and monitor cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB), and these capabilities are being used more frequently in water quality management. A quantitative estimate of the socioeconomic benefits generated from these new capabilities, known as an impact assessment, was missing from the growing literature on cyanoHABs and remote sensing. In this paper, we present an impact assessment framework to characterize the socioeconomic benefits of satellite remote sensing for detecting cyanoHABs and managing recreational advisories at freshwater lakes. We then apply this framework to estimate the socioeconomic benefits of satellite data that were used to manage a 2017 cyanoHAB event in Utah Lake. CyanoHAB events on Utah Lake can pose health risks to people who interact with the blooms through recreation. We find that the availability of satellite data yielded socioeconomic benefits by improving human health outcomes valued at approximately $370,000, though a sensitivity analysis reveals that this central estimate can vary significantly ($55,000-$1,057,000 in benefits) as a result of different assumptions regarding the time delay in posting a recreational advisory, the number of people exposed to the cyanoHAB, the number of people who experience gastrointestinal symptoms, and the cost per case of illness.

In Vitro Toxicological Screening of Stable and Senescing Cultures of Aphanizomenon, Planktothrix, and Raphidiopsis

Toxicity of cyanobacteria is the subject of ongoing research, and a number of toxic metabolites have been described, their biosynthesis pathways have been elucidated, and the mechanism of their action has been established. However, several knowledge gaps still exist, e.g., some strains produce hitherto unknown toxic compounds, while the exact dynamics of exerted toxicity during cyanobacterial growth still requires further exploration. Therefore, the present study investigated the toxicity of extracts of nine freshwater strains of Aphanizomenon gracile, an Aphanizomenon sp. strain isolated from the Baltic Sea, a freshwater strain of Planktothrix agardhii, and two strains of Raphidiopsis raciborskii obtained from 25- and 70-day-old cultures. An in vitro experimental model based on Cyprinus carpio hepatocytes (oxidative stress markers, DNA fragmentation, and serine/threonine protein activity) and brain homogenate (cholinesterase activity) was employed. The studied extracts demonstrated toxicity to fish cells, and in general, all examined extracts altered at least one or more of considered parameters, indicating that they possess, to some degree, toxic potency. Although the time from which the extracts were obtained had a significant importance for the response of fish cells, we observed strong variability between the different strains and species. In some strains, extracts that originated from 25-day-old cultures triggered more harmful effects on fish cells compared to those obtained from 70-day-old cultures, whereas in other strains, we observed the opposite effect or a lack of a significant change. Our study revealed that there was no clear or common pattern regarding the degree of cyanobacterial bloom toxicity at a given stage of development. This means that young cyanobacterial blooms that are just forming can pose an equally toxic threat to aquatic vertebrates and ecosystem functioning as those that are stable or old with a tendency to collapse. This might be largely due to a high variability of strains in the bloom.