COVID-19-Associated Decline in the Size of the End Stage Kidney Disease Population in the United States

Dialysis parameters associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and prognosis in end-stage kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Whether dialysis parameters have a prognostic value in ESKD patients with Covid-19 remains unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated clinical characteristics, blood pressure (BP) and dialysis parameters in ESKD patients undergoing maintenance outpatient hemodialysis, with (Covid-ESKD) and without (No-Covid-ESKD) Covid-19, at four Brazilian hemodialysis facilities. The Covid-ESKD (n = 107; 54% females; 60.8 ± 17.7 years) and No-Covid-ESKD (n = 107; 62% females; 58.4 ± 14.6 years) groups were matched by calendar time. The average BP and dialysis parameters were calculated during the pre-infection, acute infection, and post-infection periods. The main outcomes were Covid-19 hospitalization and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Covid-ESKD patients had greater intradialytic and postdialysis systolic BP and lower predialysis weight, postdialysis weight, ultrafiltration rate, and interdialytic weight gain during acute-illness compared to 1-week-before-illness, while these changes were not observed in No-Covid-ESKD patients. After 286 days of follow-up (range, 276-591), there were 18 Covid-19-related hospitalizations and 28 deaths among Covid-ESKD patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that increases in predialysis systolic BP from 1-week-before-illness to acute-illness (OR, 95%CI = 1.06, 1.02-1.10; p = .004) and Covid-19 vaccination (OR, 95%CI = 0.16, 0.04-0.69; p = .014) were associated with hospitalization in Covid-ESKD patients. Multivariable Cox-regression analysis showed that Covid-19-related hospitalization (HR, 95%CI = 5.17, 2.07-12.96; p < .001) and age (HR, 95%CI = 1.05, 1.01-1.08; p = .008) were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in Covid-ESKD patients.

CONCLUSION

Acute Covid-19 illness is associated with variations in dialysis parameters of volume status in patients with ESKD. Furthermore, increases in predialysis BP during acute Covid-19 illness are associated with an adverse prognosis in Covid-ESKD patients.

Integrating socio-economic vulnerability factors improves neighborhood-scale wastewater-based epidemiology for public health applications

Wastewater Based Epidemiology (WBE) of COVID-19 is a low-cost, non-invasive, and inclusive early warning tool for disease spread. Previously studied WBE focused on sampling at wastewater treatment plant scale, limiting the level at which demographic and geographic variations in disease dynamics can be incorporated into the analysis of certain neighborhoods. This study demonstrates the integration of demographic mapping to improve the WBE of COVID-19 and associated post-COVID disease prediction (here kidney disease) at the neighborhood level using machine learning. WBE was conducted at six neighborhoods in Seattle during October 2020 - February 2022. Wastewater processing and RT-qPCR were performed to obtain SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. Census data, clinical data of COVID-19, as well as patient data of acute kidney injury (AKI) cases reported during the study period were collected and the distribution across the city was studied using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping. Further, we analyzed the data set to better understand socioeconomic impacts on disease prevalence of COVID-19 and AKI per neighborhood. The heterogeneity of eleven demographic factors (such as education and age among others) was observed within neighborhoods across the city of Seattle. Dynamics of COVID-19 clinical cases and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 varied across neighborhood with different levels of demographics. Machine learning models trained with data from the earlier stages of the pandemic were able to predict both COVID-19 and AKI incidence in the later stages of the pandemic (Spearman correlation coefficient of 0·546 - 0·904), with the most predictive model trained on the combination of wastewater data and demographics. The integration of demographics strengthened machine learning models' capabilities to predict prevalence of COVID-19, and of AKI as a marker for post-COVID sequelae. Demographic-based WBE presents an effective tool to monitor and manage public health beyond COVID-19 at the neighborhood level.

Age- and Race-Specific Changes in ESKD Incidence over Four Decades

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

ESKD incidence has changed substantially in the past four decades, but differences by age and race have been unexplored. Using data from the United States Renal Data System, we found that ESKD incidence rose for Black and White teenagers, adults, and older adults for two decades beginning in 1980. Growth in incidence slowed for most groups by 1993, and by 2006, the annual percent change (APC) in ESKD incidence had declined for all groups, except White adults, for whom rates continued to rise. By 2019, ESKD incidence among Black and White adolescents nearly returned to 1980 levels, but no other group achieved that degree of improvement. Nonetheless, the ESKD incidence rate among Black American patients exceeds that of White patients in every age group. Distinct patterns in ESKD incidence among patients of different age, sex, and racial groups are shown. These findings could reflect changes in dialysis acceptance rates, access to preventive health care, incidence of diabetes mellitus, implementation of evidence-based guidelines for treatment of CKD, or other unrecognized factors. There may be population-specific opportunities to change the growth of the US ESKD population and address current racial disparities.

BACKGROUND

Substantial changes in ESKD incidence over four decades among Black and White Americans of different ages have been incompletely explored.

METHODS

We analyzed United States Renal Data System data from 1980 to 2019 to determine ESKD incidence trends among Black and White adolescent (13-17 years), adult (18-64 years), and older adult (≥65) populations. We used the National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate annual percent change (APC) in ESKD incidence and to define points in time where a statistically significant change in APC slope occurred for each group.

RESULTS

ESKD incidence rose after 1980 for all groups, although the trends differed ( P < 0.001). Growth in incidence slowed for most by 1993, and by 2006, the APC in ESKD incidence had declined for all groups, except White adults, for whom rates continued to rise ( P < 0.05). By 2019, ESKD incidence among Black and White adolescents nearly returned to 1980 levels, but no other group achieved that degree of improvement. Nonetheless, the ESKD incidence among Black American patients exceeds that of White patients in every age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct patterns in ESKD incidence among patients of different age, sex, and racial groups are shown. These findings could reflect changes in dialysis acceptance rates, access to preventive health care, incidence of diabetes mellitus, implementation of evidence-based guidelines for treatment of CKD, or other unrecognized factors.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/JASN/2024_03_13_ASN0000000000000310.mp3.

Impact of COVID-19 on maintenance peritoneal dialysis patients and providers: A review

The COVID-19 pandemic exerted complex pressures on the nephrology community. Despite multiple prior reviews on acute peritoneal dialysis during the pandemic, the effects of COVID-19 on maintenance peritoneal dialysis patients remain underexamined. This review synthesizes and reports findings from 29 total cases of chronic peritoneal dialysis patients with COVID-19, encompassing 3 case reports, 13 case series, and 13 cohort studies. When available, data for patients with COVID-19 on maintenance hemodialysis are also discussed. Finally, we present a chronological timeline of evidence regarding the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in spent peritoneal dialysate and explore trends in telehealth as they relate to peritoneal dialysis patients during the pandemic. We conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the efficacy, flexibility, and utility of peritoneal dialysis.

Early Experience with Modified Dose Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in Dialysis Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was approved for use in high-risk outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, patients with severe CKD were excluded from the phase 3 trial, and the drug is not recommended for those with GFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . On the basis of available pharmacological data, we developed a modified low-dose regimen of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir 300/100 mg on day 1, followed by 150/100 mg daily from day 2 to 5. In this study, we report our experience with this modified dose regimen in dialysis patients in the Canadian province of Ontario.

METHODS

We included dialysis patients who developed COVID-19 and were treated with the modified dose nirmatrelvir/ritonavir regimen during a 60-day period between April 1 and May 31, 2022. Details of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use and outcomes were captured manually, and demographic data were obtained from a provincial database. Data are presented with descriptive statistics. The principal outcomes we describe are 30-day hospitalization, 30-day mortality, and required medication changes with the modified dose regimen.

RESULTS

A total of 134 dialysis patients with COVID-19 received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir during the period of study. Fifty-six percent were men, and the mean age was 64 years. Most common symptoms were cough and/or sore throat (60%). Medication interactions were common with calcium channel blockers, statins being the most frequent. Most patients (128, 96%) were able to complete the course of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and none of the patients who received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir died of COVID-19 in the 30 days of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

A modified dose of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use was found to be safe and well tolerated, with no serious adverse events being observed in a small sample of maintenance dialysis patients.

Time-Series Forecasting of Hemodialysis Population in the State of Qatar by 2030

BACKGROUND

There are few statistics on dialysis-dependent individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Qatar. Having access to this information can aid in better understanding the dialysis development model, aiding higher-level services in future planning. In order to give data for creating preventive efforts, we thus propose a time-series with a definitive endogenous model to predict ESKD patients requiring dialysis.

METHODS

In this study, we used four mathematical equations linear, exponential, logarithmic decimal, and polynomial regression, to make predictions using historical data from 2012 to 2021. These equations were evaluated based on time-series analysis, and their prediction performance was assessed using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R²), and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Because it remained largely steady for the population at risk of ESKD in this investigation, we did not consider the population growth factor to be changeable. (FIFA World Cup 2022 preparation workforce associated growth was in healthy and young workers that did not influence ESKD prevalence).

RESULT

The polynomial has a high R² of 0.99 and is consequently the best match for the prevalence dialysis data, according to numerical findings. Thus, the MAPE is 2.28, and the MAD is 9.87%, revealing a small prediction error with good accuracy and variability. The polynomial algorithm is the simplest and best-calculated projection model, according to these results. The number of dialysis patients in Qatar is anticipated to increase to 1037 (95% CI, 974-1126) in 2022, 1245 (95% CI, 911-1518) in 2025, and 1611 (95% CI, 1378-1954) in 2030, with a 5.67% average yearly percentage change between 2022 and 2030.

CONCLUSION

Our research offers straightforward and precise mathematical models for predicting the number of patients in Qatar who will require dialysis in the future. We discovered that the polynomial technique outperformed other methods. Future planning for the need for dialysis services can benefit from this forecasting.

Associations of COVID-19 Outcomes with Dialysis Modalities and Settings

How maintenance dialysis modality, dialysis setting, and residence in a nursing facility have jointly associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related outcomes in the United States is relevant to future viral outbreaks. Using Medicare claims, we determined the incidence of COVID-19-related infection, hospitalization, and death between March 15, 2020 and June 5, 2021. The exposure was one of five combinations of dialysis modality and care setting: in-facility hemodialysis without a recent history of skilled nursing facility care, in-facility hemodialysis with a recent history of skilled nursing facility care, hemodialysis in a skilled nursing facility, home hemodialysis, and (home) peritoneal dialysis. Patient-weeks were pooled to estimate the adjusted associations of event incidence with each dialysis modality/setting during four intervals in 2020-2021. Relative to in-facility hemodialysis without a recent history of skilled nursing facility care, home dialysis was associated with 36%-60% lower odds of all events during weeks 12-23 of 2020; 24%-37% lower odds of all events during weeks 24-37 of 2020; 20%-33% lower odds of infection and hospitalization during the winter of 2020-2021; and similar odds of all events thereafter. In contrast, exposure to skilled nursing facilities was associated with 570%-1140% higher odds of all events during spring of 2020, although excess risk attenuated as the pandemic transpired, especially among patients who received hemodialysis in skilled nursing facilities. In conclusion, home dialysis was associated with lower risks of COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and death until vaccines were available, whereas care in skilled nursing facilities was associated with higher risks.

COVID-19 in dialysis: clinical impact, immune response, prevention, and treatment

The COVID-19 pandemic has profound adverse effects on the population on dialysis. Patients requiring dialysis are at an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality, and many have experienced psychological distress as well as delayed or suboptimal care. COVID-19 survivors have prolonged viral shedding, but generally develop a robust and long-lasting humoral immune response that correlates with initial disease severity. However, protection against reinfection is incomplete. A growing body of evidence reveals delayed and blunted immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Administration of a third dose within 1 to 2 months of prime-boost vaccination significantly increases antibody levels, in particular in patients with poor initial responses. Patients on dialysis have inferior immune responses to adenoviral vector vaccines than to mRNA vaccines. The immunogenicity of the mRNA-1273 vaccine is markedly better than that of the BNT162b2 vaccine, most likely by virtue of its higher mRNA content. Despite suboptimal immune responses in patients on dialysis, preliminary data suggest that vaccination partially protects against infection and severe disease requiring hospitalization. However, progressive waning of immunity and emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with a high potential of immune escape call for a booster dose in all patients on dialysis 4 to 6 months after prime-boost vaccination. Patients with persistent poor vaccine responses may be candidates for primary prophylaxis strategies. In the absence of specific data in patients on dialysis, therapeutic strategies in the event of established COVID-19 must be extrapolated from evidence obtained in the population not on dialysis. Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies may be an attractive option after a high-risk exposure or during the early course of infection.

COVID-19 and kidney disease: insights from epidemiology to inform clinical practice

Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous studies have aimed to address the challenges faced by patients with kidney disease and their caregivers. These studies addressed areas of concern such as the high infection and mortality risk of patients on in-centre haemodialysis and transplant recipients. However, the ability to draw meaningful conclusions from these studies has in some instances been challenging, owing to barriers in aspects of usual care, data limitations and problematic methodological practices. In many settings, access to SARS-CoV-2 testing differed substantially between patient groups, whereas the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied over time and place because of differences in viral prevalence, targeted public health policies and vaccination rates. The absence of baseline kidney function data posed problems in the classification of chronic kidney disease and acute kidney injury in some studies, potentially compromising the generalizability of findings. Study findings also require attentive appraisal in terms of the effects of confounding, collider bias and chance. As this pandemic continues and in the future, the implementation of sustainable and integrated research infrastructure is needed in settings across the world to minimize infection transmission and both prevent and plan for the short-term and long-term complications of infectious diseases. Registries can support the real-world evaluation of vaccines and therapies in patients with advanced kidney disease while enabling monitoring of rare complications.

Patients with kidney disease are at particular risk of the adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Throughout the pandemic, epidemiological studies have been performed to inform clinical care; however, these studies have faced a number of methodological challenges. This Review discusses current understanding of the effects of COVID-19 on patients with kidney disease and some of the major obstacles encountered when conducting epidemiological research in a pandemic setting.

Patients who are receiving in-centre dialysis have a higher risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 than members of the general population, owing to their limited ability to isolate.

Studies have found a dose–response of increasing risk of mortality from COVID-19 with decreasing kidney function, with particularly high mortality seen in people with kidney failure and those on kidney replacement therapy.

Evidence of how infection risk can be mitigated in patients with chronic kidney disease is often of poor quality due to the many challenges of conducting epidemiological research in fragmented health-care settings.

Observational studies of associations between risk factors, such as chronic kidney disease or transplantation, and outcomes, such as COVID-19-related mortality, can be distorted as a result of collider bias, and thus care must be taken in study design and evaluation.

Recognizing the challenges that affect epidemiological studies in pandemic settings together with information on local health contexts enables rigorous assessment of study quality; adequate reporting of aspects relevant to local care availability enables readers to identify studies that contribute robust findings to the literature.

To confront the challenges wrought by future pandemics, a sustainable and integrated global infrastructure is needed to identify evidence-based approaches to minimize infection transmission and adverse outcomes.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: the disruptor that maintenance dialysis never anticipated

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has upended maintenance dialysis in the United States. I review changes in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and other clinical outcomes among patients undergoing dialysis since March 2020, highlighting vulnerabilities in the current system and opportunities for improved care in the future.

RECENT FINDINGS

The number of dialysis patients in the United States declined between March 2020 and March 2021, an unprecedented year-over-year drop in the census. Some of the decline can be attributed to an early drop in patients initiating dialysis but most of the decline can be attributed to excess mortality. Kidney transplants also declined during the early part of the pandemic. Home dialysis utilization increased during 2020 but that increase was largely in line with secular trends. The rate of hospitalization for causes other than COVID-19 fell significantly during 2020.

SUMMARY

The epidemiology of dialysis in the United States is clearly modifiable, as it reflects decisions to initiate treatment, prescribe home therapies, and hospitalize patients with acute medical needs. On the other hand, some outcomes are powerfully guided by health outcomes in the general population, thus limiting the ability of dialysis providers and nephrologists to influence outcomes.