Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events

The direct impacts of climate change involve a multitude of phenomena, including rising sea levels, intensified severe weather events such as droughts and flooding, increased temperatures leading to wildfires, and unpredictable fluctuations in rainfall. This comprehensive review intends to examine firstly the probable consequences of climate change on extreme weather events such as drought, flood and wildfire. This review subsequently examines the release and transformation of contaminants in terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric environments in response to extreme weather events driven by climate change. While drought and flood influence the dynamics of inorganic and organic contaminants in terrestrial and aquatic environments, thereby influencing their mobility and transport, wildfire results in the release and spread of organic contaminants in the atmosphere. There is a nascent awareness of climate change's influence of climate change-induced extreme weather events on the dynamics of environmental contaminants in the scientific community and decision-making processes. The remediation industry, in particular, lags behind in adopting adaptive measures for managing contaminated environments affected by climate change-induced extreme weather events. However, recognizing the need for assessment measures represents a pivotal first step towards fostering more adaptive practices in the management of contaminated environments. We highlight the urgency of collaboration between environmental chemists and climate change experts, emphasizing the importance of jointly assessing the fate of contaminants and rigorous action to augment risk assessment and remediation strategies to safeguard the health of our environment.

Modeling fate and transport of pesticides from dryland agriculture using SWAT model

The aim of this study was to understand pesticide fate and transport from dryland agriculture in a major drinking water basin using SWAT and to identify critical source areas in the basin. Hydrological calibration results indicated satisfactory simulation of hydrologic processes within the catchment. Long term average observed sediment values (0.16 ton/ha) were compared with the annual average simulated SWAT outputs (0.22 ton/ha). Generally, the simulated concentrations were higher than the observed values, but the distribution pattern and trends were similar among the months. Average concentrations in water were 0.036 μg/L and 0.006 μg/L for fenpropimorph and chlorpyrifos, respectively. Transfer rates of pesticides from landscape to rivers showed that 0.36% of fenpropimorph and 0.19% of the applied amount of chlorpyrifos were exported to the river. Higher amount of fenpropimorph transport from land to the reach was attributed to its lower K_oc (soil adsorption coefficient) value compared to chlorpyrifos. Higher amounts from HRUs were observed in the application month (April) and following month (May) for fenpropimorph, while the months after September showed higher amounts for chlorpyrifos. The specific HRUs (Hydrological Response Units) located in sub-basins 3, 5, 9 and 11 presented highest dissolved pesticide amounts, while HRUs in sub-basins 4 and 11 exhibited highest concentrations for adsorbed pesticides. Best management practices (BMPs) were recommended in critical subbasins to protect the watershed. Despite the limitations, the results demonstrate the potential contributions of modeling in terms of assessing pesticide loadings, critical zones and application timing.

Modeling the Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Availability in an Inland Valley Catchment in Burkina Faso

Water scarcity for smallholder farming in West Africa has led to the shift of cultivation from uplands to inland valleys. This study investigates the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change on water resources in an intensively instrumented inland valley catchment in Southwestern Burkina Faso. An ensemble of five regional climate models (RCMs) and two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was utilized to drive a physically-based hydrological model WaSiM after calibration and validation. The impact of climate change was quantified by comparing the projected period (2021–2050) and a reference period (1971–2000). The result showed a large uncertainty in the future change of runoff between the RCMs. Three models projected an increase in the total runoff from +12% to +95%, whereas two models predicted a decrease from −44% to −24%. Surface runoff was projected to show the highest relative change compared to the other runoff components. The projected LULC 2019, 2025, and 2030 were estimated based on historical LULC change (1990–2013) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). A gradual conversion of savanna to cropland was shown, with annual rates rom 1 to 3.3%. WaSiM was used to simulate a gradual increase in runoff with time caused by this land use change. The combined climate and land use change was estimated using LULC-2013 in the reference period and LULC-2030 as future land use. The results suggest that land use change exacerbates the increase in total runoff. The increase in runoff was found to be +158% compared to the reference period but only +52% without land use change impacts. This stresses the fact that land use change impact is not negligible in this area, and climate change impact assessments without land use change analysis might be misleading. The results of this study can be used as input to water management models in order to derive strategies to cope with present and future water scarcities for smallholder farming in the investigated area.

Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively.

Assessments of Impacts of Climate and Forest Change on Water Resources Using SWAT Model in a Subboreal Watershed in Northern Da Hinggan Mountains

Water resources from rivers are essential to humans. The discharge of rivers is demonstrated to be significantly affected by climate change in the literature, particularly in the boreal and subboreal climate zones. The Da Hinggan Mountains in subboreal northeast China form the headwaters of the Heilongjiang River and the Nenjiang River, which are important water resources for irrigation of downstream agriculture and wetlands. In this study, long-term (44 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the Tahe were analyzed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to quantify the effects of climate and forest change on runoff depth. Meanwhile, downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions that arose from global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) were forced using the SWAT model to investigate the climate change impacts on the Tahe River flows in the future. The results indicated that compared with the 1972–1982 period, the forest biomass in the 1984–1994 period was reduced by 17.6%, resulting in an increase of 16.6% in mean annual runoff depth. On the contrary, with reforestation from the 1995–2005 period to the 2006–2016 period, the mean forest biomass was increased by 9.8%, resulting in the mean runoff depth reduction of 11.9%. The tree species composition shift reduced mean annual runoff depth of 13.3% between the 1984–1994 period and the 2006–2016 period. Compared with base years (2006–2016), projections of GCM in the middle of the 21st century indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation were expected to increase by −0.50 °C and 43 mm under RCP 2.6, 0.38 °C and 23 mm under RCP 4.5, 0.67 °C and 36 mm under RCP 6.0 and 1.00 °C and 10 mm under RCP 8.5. Simulated results of the SWAT model showed that annual runoff depth would increase by 18.1% (RCP 2.6), 11.8% (RCP 4.5), 23.6% (RCP 6.0), and 11.5% (RCP 8.5), compared to the base years. Such increased runoff was mainly attributed to the increase in April, July, August, September and October, which were consistent with the precipitation prediction. We concluded that the future climate change will increase the water resources from the river, thereby offsetting the possible decline in runoff caused by the forest recovery. The findings of this study might be useful for understanding the impacts of climate and forest change on runoff and provide a reasonable strategy for managers and planners to mitigate the impact of future climate change on water resources in the subboreal forested watersheds.

Hydrological responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability in contrasting agro-ecological environments of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability are two major factors controlling hydrological responses. The present study analyzed the separate and combined effects of these two factors on annual surface runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) after validating the selected models in three drought-prone watersheds of the Upper Blue Nile basin: Kasiry (highland), Kecha (midland), and Sahi (lowland). LULC maps were produced from aerial photographs and very-high-resolution satellite images from 1982, 2005/06 and 2016/17. During 1982-2016/17 the area covered by natural vegetation showed dramatic decreases, ranging from 60.2% in Kasiry to 51.8% in Sahi. In contrast, increases in cultivated land ranged from 36.7% in Kasiry to 279.6% in Sahi; the smaller increase in Kasiry resulted from the conversion of a portion of the cultivated land to an Acacia decurrens plantation after 2006. The observed LULC changes over the study period resulted in runoff increases ranging from 4% in Kecha to 28.7% in Kasiry. Climate variability in terms of annual rainfall had no significant effect on estimated runoff; whereas both LULC change and climate variability had significant effect on estimated ET. Though climate variability increased ET from 33.6% in Kecha to 42.1% in Kasiry, the LULC change related to the reduction in natural vegetation had an offsetting effect, which led to overall decreases in ET ranging from 15.8% in Kasiry to 32.8% in Kecha watershed. As changes in LULC and climate are expected to intensify in the future, it is important to study further hydrological responses considering these changes to devise future sustainable land and water management strategies.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 1: FLOW, WATER TEMPERATURE, SALTWATER INTRUSION

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on U.S. water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al. (2019), we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

Enhanced biodegradation of atrazine at high infiltration rates in agricultural soils

The objective of this study was to assess the persistence and transport of atrazine at high infiltration rates expected from higher intensity precipitation associated with climate change scenarios in the midwestern U.S. The transport and transformation of atrazine was monitored in column experiments at high infiltration rates (64-119 mm d-1) associated with increased precipitation intensity. The optimum linear sorption and the lumped Monod biokinetic parameters were determined by inverting observed break-through curves (BTCs) using the advection-dispersion-sorption-degradation model. Batch microcosm studies were also conducted to examine the effect of moisture content (5%, 15% and 25%) on atrazine degradation and support the column results. BTCs from both soil types with continuous atrazine input showed a characteristic pattern of a pulse input i.e. lag phase prior to rapid atrazine degradation. The rate of atrazine leaching at higher infiltration rates was not fast enough to counteract the effect of enhanced degradation. Higher infiltration rates enriched the distribution of hydroxyatrazine in the soil profile for sandy loam, but their effect was minimal in loam soil. The pattern of degradation obtained in batch microcosms agreed with the column results. In both soils, mean half-life of atrazine was lower (4-8 days) at high soil moisture contents. Under future climate change scenarios, where more intense precipitation is likely to result in higher infiltration rates and increased soil moisture, the potential for groundwater pollution from atrazine may be reduced, especially in areas with a long history of atrazine application to soil.

A review of pesticide fate and transport simulation at watershed level using SWAT: Current status and research concerns

The application of pesticides in agriculture is a widely-used way to alleviate pest stresses. However, it also introduces various environmental concerns due to the offsite movement of pesticide residues towards receiving water bodies. While the application of process-based modeling approaches can provide quantitative information on pesticide exposure, there are nonetheless growing requirements for model development and improvement to better represent various hydrological and physico-chemical conditions at watershed scale, and for better model integration to address environmental, ecological and economic concerns. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is an ecohydrological model used in over 3000 published studies, including about 50 for simulating pesticide fate and transport at the watershed scale. To better understand its strengths and limitations, we conducted a rigorous review of published studies that have used SWAT for pesticide modeling. This review provides recommendations for improving the interior algorithms (fate simulation, pathway representation, transport/pollution control, and other hydrological related improvement) to better represent natural conditions, and for further extension of pesticide exposure modeling using SWAT by linking it with other models or management tools to effectively address the various concerns of environmental researchers and local decision makers. Going beyond past studies, we also recommend future improvement to fill research gaps in developing modularized field level simulation, improved BMPs, new in-pond and in-stream modules, and the incorporation of soft data. Our review pointed out a new insight of pesticide fate and transport modeling at watershed level, which should be seen as steps leading to the direction for model development, as well as better addressing management concerns of local stakeholders for model implementation.

Nitrate Runoff Contributing from the Agriculturally Intensive San Joaquin River Watershed to Bay-Delta in California

Nitrogen loading from agricultural landscapes can trigger a cascade of detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems. Recently, the spread of aquatic weed infestations (Eichhornia crassipes, Egeria densa, Ludwigia spp., and Onagraceae) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of northern California has raised concerns, and nitrogen loading from California’s intensive farming regions is considered as one of the major contributors. In this study, we employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate nitrogen exports from the agriculturally intensive San Joaquin River watershed to the Delta. The alternate tile drainage routine in SWAT was tested against monitoring data in the tile-drained area of the watershed to examine the suitability of the new routine for a tile nitrate simulation. We found that the physically based Hooghoudt and Kirkham tile drain routine improved model performance in representing tile nitrate runoff, which contributed to 40% of the nitrate loading to the San Joaquin River. Calibration results show that the simulated riverine nitrate loads matched the observed data fairly well. According to model simulation, the San Joaquin River plays a critical role in exporting nitrogen to the Delta by exporting 3135 tons of nitrate-nitrogen annually, which has a strong ecological implication in supporting the growth of aquatic weeds, which has impeded water flow, impairs commercial navigation and recreational activities, and degrades water quality in Bay-Delta waterways. Since nitrate loadings contributed by upstream runoff are an important nutrient to facilitate weed development, our study results should be seen as a prerequisite to evaluate the potential growth impact of aquatic weeds and scientific evidence for area-wide weed control decisions.

Long-Term Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Have Already Impacted Nitrogen Loading

Increases in nitrogen loading over the past several decades have led to widespread water quality impairments across the U.S. Elevated awareness of the influence of climate variability on nitrogen loading has led to several studies investigating future climate change impacts on water quality. However,  it remains unclear whether long-term climate impacts can already be observed in the historical record. Here, we quantify long-term trends in total nitrogen loading over the period 1987-2012 across the contiguous U.S. and attribute these trends to long-term changes in nitrogen inputs and climatic variables. We find that annual precipitation, extreme springtime precipitation, and springtime temperature are key drivers of trends in historical loading in most regions. These decadal climate trends have either  amplified or offset loading trends expected from nitrogen inputs alone. We also find that rising temperatures have been insufficient to offset precipitation-induced loading increases, suggesting that future increases in temperature under climate change may have limited potential to counteract loading increases expected as a result of anticipated changes in precipitation. This work demonstrates the important role of decadal climate variability in long-term nitrogen loading, emphasizing the need to consider climate change risks when designing and monitoring nutrient reduction programs.

Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century

Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total nitrogen loading (+54% to -7%) for the continental United States by the end of the century. Regional impacts will be even larger. Increased loading is possible for both high emission and low emission pathways, due to increased food and biofuel demand, respectively. Some pathways, however, suggest that limiting climate change and eutrophication can be achieved concurrently. Precipitation changes will further exacerbate loading, resulting in a net increase of 1 to 68%. Globally, increases in cropland area and agricultural intensification will likely impact vast portions of Asia. Societal and climate trends must therefore both be considered in designing strategies for managing inland and coastal water quality.

Assessment and management of pesticide pollution at a river basin level part II: Optimization of pesticide monitoring networks on surface aquatic ecosystems by data analysis methods

The high cost of extensive pesticide monitoring studies, required for the protection of water resources, and the necessity of early identification of environmental threats, highlighted the need for prioritization of pesticides and sampling sites to be monitored. The aim of this study was to develop an optimum surface water monitoring network at a catchment scale including only the sites of a catchment vulnerable to pesticide pollution. The identification of sampling sites vulnerable to pesticide pollution (VPS) was based on the data of an intensive monitoring survey of 302 pesticides in 102 stationary sampling sites located on the surface water network of a river basin. In the proposed methodology the left-censored data of the analytical results derived from the above mentioned monitoring campaign were included in the statistical analyses by transforming all the raw data into categorical variables and arranging them in ordinal scales based on ecotoxicological thresholds derived from pesticide toxicity tests on aquatic non-target organisms. The categorized data were subjected to Categorical Principal Component Analysis with Optimal Scaling. For the identification of the VPS, the Squared Mahalanobis Distance criterion was applied on the extracted values (scores) of the significant principal components. With this methodology a 46% reduction in the number of the monitoring stations was achieved. This approach will be valuable in establishing more cost effective monitoring schemes in the future in other basins and in developing targeted measures to eliminate or limit the effect of critical pollution sources in surface aquatic systems. Moreover, by applying the proposed methodology, historical monitoring data can be used to initiate more efficient pesticide monitoring campaigns in the future.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 2: NUTRIENTS, ALGAL BLOOMS, SEDIMENT, PATHOGENS

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

A SWAT Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Water Resources in Salt Lake Sub-Basin, Iran

Future climate change is projected to have significant impacts on water resources availability in many parts of the world. This research evaluated climate change impacts on runoff, aquifer infiltration, renewable water resources, and drought intensity in Salt Lake sub-basin, Iran, by the Soil and Water assessment tool (SWAT) model and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) under A1B, A2, and B1 climatic scenarios for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099, using 1986–2016 as the reference period. The model was calibrated and validated by the SWAT-CUP software and SUFI-2 algorithm. Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.58 and 0.49) and the determination coefficients (R2) (0.65 and 0.50) were obtained for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In order to study the climatic condition in the study basin, drought intensity was calculated. Then, drought intensity was predicted using the SPI index for the period 2011–2030. The results showed that runoff, infiltration, as well as renewable water resources will decrease under all climatic scenarios. Renewable water resources will be approximately reduced 100 Mm3 by the year 2100. The future projections suggest a regional increase of 2 °C in temperature and a 20% decrease in precipitation in the sub-basin. In particular, drought intensity will be increased in the future. In 2015, this index was −1.31, and in 2016, the SPI index was lower than −2. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.

Modeling the combined effects of changing land cover, climate, and atmospheric deposition on nitrogen transport in the Neuse River Basin

STUDY REGION

The SWAT model was used to estimate the combined effects of changing land cover, climate and Clean Air Act (CAAA)-related atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to watershed nitrogen fate and transport for two watersheds in North Carolina, USA.

STUDY FOCUS

Two different model simulation scenarios were applied: one included CAAA-related atmospheric N deposition, climate and land cover (CAAD+C+L) and the other only included CAAA-related N deposition (CAAD) in simulation.

NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION

Results show both scenarios generated overall decreasing trends for nearly all N outputs between 2010 and 2070 which resulted primarily from CAAA-related reductions in oxidized N deposition. In both watersheds, including climate and land cover change in simulation resulted in a relative 30% higher NO3 load, 30% higher denitrification, 10% higher organic N load and a 20% smaller level of plant N uptake in year 2070 compared to not including climate and landcover changes in simulation. The increases in N transport for both watersheds indicates the combined impacts from climate and land cover change may offset benefits provided by the CAAA regulations; however, future NO3 loads for the Little River watershed were small relative to current N loading rates. Conversely, the increasing NO3 and organic N loads for the nearby Nahunta watershed were significant compared to current rates demonstrating that watershed nutrient responses to climate and land cover changes may vary significantly over relatively small spatial scales.

Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes

Eutrophication, or excessive nutrient enrichment, threatens water resources across the globe. We show that climate change-induced precipitation changes alone will substantially increase (19 ± 14%) riverine total nitrogen loading within the continental United States by the end of the century for the "business-as-usual" scenario. The impacts, driven by projected increases in both total and extreme precipitation, will be especially strong for the Northeast and the corn belt of the United States. Offsetting this increase would require a 33 ± 24% reduction in nitrogen inputs, representing a massive management challenge. Globally, changes in precipitation are especially likely to also exacerbate eutrophication in India, China, and Southeast Asia. It is therefore imperative that water quality management strategies account for the impact of projected future changes in precipitation on nitrogen loading.

Coupling distributed stormwater collection and managed aquifer recharge: Field application and implications

Groundwater is increasingly important for satisfying California's growing fresh water demand. Strategies like managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can improve groundwater supplies, mitigating the negative consequences of persistent groundwater overdraft. Distributed stormwater collection (DSC)-MAR projects collect and infiltrate excess hillslope runoff before it reaches a stream, focusing on 40-400 ha drainage areas (100-1000 ac). We present results from six years of DSC-MAR operation-including high resolution analyses of precipitation, runoff generation, infiltration, and sediment transport-and discuss their implications for regional resource management. This project generated significant water supply benefit over six years, including an extended regional drought, collecting and infiltrating 5.3 × 10⁵ m³ (426 ac-ft). Runoff generation was highly sensitive to sub-daily storm frequency, duration, and intensity, and a single intense storm often accounted for a large fraction of annual runoff. Observed infiltration rates varied widely in space and time. The basin-average infiltration rate during storms was 1-3 m/d, with point-specific rates up to 8 m/d. Despite efforts to limit sediment load, 8.2 × 10⁵ kg of fine-grained sediment accumulated in the infiltration basin over three years, likely reducing soil infiltration capacity. Periodic removal of accumulated material, better source control, and/or improved sediment detention could mitigate this effect in the future. Regional soil analyses can maximize DSC-MAR benefits by identifying high-infiltration capacity features and characterizing upland sediment sources. A regional network of DSC-MAR projects could increase groundwater supplies while contributing to improved groundwater quality, flood mitigation, and stakeholder engagement.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality of a small Mediterranean catchment with intensive viticulture

Studies that address the potential effects of climate and land use changes on surface water quality are scarce in the Mediterranean region. In the present work, the impacts of climate and land use changes on nutrient and copper exports from a humid Mediterranean catchment (São Lourenço) were evaluated using the SWAT model. SWAT reproduced reasonably well total nitrogen (TN), phosphorus (TP) and copper (Cu) exports in São Lourenço, providing an adequate baseline scenario as well as a suitable model parameterization for assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Land use changes scenarios were generated along the same storylines as climate change scenarios to assess the combined effects of the two stressors. Climate changes itself led to a decline in annual TN and TP exports under both emission scenarios mostly due to a decrease in runoff and erosion induced by a reduction in rainfall, but it hardly affected Cu exports largely due to its strong immobilization in soils. Land use changes per se resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the changes in water quality varied markedly according to the scenarios. A substantial decrease in TN, TP and Cu exports was observed under scenario A1B, due to a reduction in vineyard areas. Under scenario B1, however, TP exports decreased much less while TN exports hardly changed, reflecting differences in the preferential transport pathways of these compounds. Cu exports also remained the same, as no changes occurred in the vineyard areas. The combination of climate and land use change scenarios revealed additive impacts on the exports of all three contaminants, emphasizing the importance of integrated approaches to define adaptive land management practices that can ensure the future sustainability of Mediterranean water resources.

Climate-change influences on the response of macroinvertebrate communities to pesticide contamination in the Sacramento River, California watershed

Limited studies have addressed how future climate-change scenarios may alter the effects of pesticides on biotic assemblages or the effects of exposures to repeated pulses of pesticide mixtures. We used reported pesticide-use data as input to a hydrological fate and transport model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under multiple climate-change scenarios to simulate spatiotemporal dynamics of pesticides mixtures in streams on a daily time-step in the Sacramento River watershed of California. We predicted that there will be increased pesticide application with warming across the watershed, especially in upstream areas. Using a statistical model describing the relationship between macroinvertebrate communities and pesticide dynamics, we found that compared to the baseline period of 1970-1999: (1) most climate-change scenarios predicted increased rainfall and warming across the watershed during 2070-2099; and (2) increasing pesticide contamination and increased impact on macroinvertebrates will likely occur in most areas of the watershed by 2070-2099; and (3) lower increases in effects of pesticides on macroinvertebrates were predicted for the downstream areas with intensive agriculture compared to some upstream areas with less-intensive agriculture. Future efforts on practical adaptation and mitigation strategies can be improved by awareness of altered threats of pesticide mixtures under future climate-change conditions.

Predicting impacts of increased CO₂ and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

Nonpoint source pollution, environmental quality, and ecosystem health in China: introduction to the special section

The rapid economic and industrial growth of China, exemplified by a 10-fold increase in its gross domestic product in the past 15 years, has lifted millions of its citizens out of poverty but has simultaneously led to severe environmental problems. The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.4 million deaths in China per year could be attributed to degraded environmental quality. Much of China's soil, air, and water are polluted by xenobiotic contaminants, such as heavy metals and organic compounds. In addition, soil quality is degraded by erosion, desertification, and nutrient runoff. Air quality is further compromised by particulates, especially in heavily populated areas. Research shows that 80% of urban rivers in China are significantly polluted, and poor water quality is a key contributor to poverty in rural China. Economic and industrial growth has also greatly expanded the demand for water sources of appropriate quality; however, pollution has markedly diminished usable water resource quantity. Desertification and diminishing water resources threaten future food security. In recent years, China's government has increased efforts to reverse these trends and to improve ecosystem health. The Web of Science database showed that the percentage of articles on China devoting to environmental sciences increased dramatically in recent years. In addition, the top 25 institutes publishing the papers in environmental sciences were all in China. This special issue includes seven articles focusing on nonpoint source pollution, environmental quality, and ecosystem health in China. The major issues, and results of these studies, are discussed in this introduction.