Shipping emission forecasts and cost-benefit analysis of China ports and key regions' control

Evolutionary characteristics of global offshore carbon emissions network and responsibility allocation of emissions reduction

Offshore carbon emissions from the international shipping trade are significant contributors to climate change. Based on the complex shipping trade networks, offshore carbon emissions are correlated rather than independent, and allocating responsibility for reducing emissions does not depend solely on the amount but on linkages. We use the global container shipping data covering more than 98% of routes from 2015 to 2020 to calculate the offshore carbon emissions from shipping. Subsequently, we construct an offshore carbon emissions network based on the shipping routes and emissions to identify the evolutionary tendency of network and clarify emissions reduction responsibilities by considering equity and efficiency. We discover that global offshore carbon emissions present a complicated network structure dominated by developed countries and large economies. Countries on the same continent or within the same economic organizations have closer and more frequent carbon correlations. Greater responsibilities should be allocated to countries who are at the center of the network.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NO_x and SO_x, known to be harmful to health.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NO_x emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Characterizing passenger-ship emissions: towards improved sustainability for MedMar fleet (gulf of Naples)

Promoting energetic and environmental sustainability in the naval sector requires a necessary understanding of the energy demand of vessels and of the factors affecting it. This article shows the results of a study conducted by the shipping company MedMar aimed at acquiring a detailed analysis of the energetic performances of its fleet. The study involved the analysis of fuel consumption and emissions of the fleet using a specific software and under different scenarios, assuming the navigation speed and the cargo level of the vessels as reference parameters. Simulations also provided a comparison, concerning emissions and externalities, between ships and two different means of transport. The purpose of this study was to identify potential areas of improvement, where ad hoc strategies could be used to further optimise the energetic and environmental performance of MedMar fleet and mitigate its impact on the delicate ecosystem of the gulf of Naples, where the fleet sails.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12053-022-10064-7.

R. Morrison L, Bean de Hernández A, Rakic S, AlOmran M, Alsukait RF, Herbst CH, AlBalawi S. Effective options for addressing air quality– related environmental public health burdens in Saudi Arabia

Air pollution poses major disease burdens globally and accounts for approximately 10% of deaths annually through its contribution to a variety of respiratory, cardiovascular, and other diseases. The burden of disease is particularly acute in Saudi Arabia, where a mix of anthropogenic and natural sources of air pollution threatens public health. Addressing these burdens requires careful study of the costs and effectiveness of available technologies and policies for reducing emissions (mitigation) and avoiding exposure (adaptation). To help evaluate these options, we conduct a semi-systematic literature review of over 3,000 articles published since 2010 that were identified by searches of literature focused on pollution mitigation and pollution adaptation. We identify a wide variety of effective mitigation and adaptation technologies and find that cost-effectiveness information for policy design is highly variable in the case of mitigation, both within and across pollution source categories; or scarce, in the case of adaptation. While pollution control costs are well studied, policy costs differ; these may vary more by location because of factors such as technology operating conditions and behavioral responses to adaptation initiatives, limiting the generalizability of cost-effectiveness information. Moreover, potential cost advantages of multipollutant control policies are likely to depend on the existing mix of pollution sources and controls. While the policy literature generally favors more flexible compliance mechanisms that increase the cost of polluting to reflect its costs to society, important policy design factors include policy co-benefits, distributional concerns, and inter-regional harmonization. In addition to these key themes, we find that further study is needed both to improve the availability of cost information for adaptation interventions and to localize technology and policy cost estimates to the Saudi context.

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Literature review of environmental public health technology and policy options.

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Air pollution mitigation options have considerable cost variation.

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Air pollution adaptation options lack thorough cost effectiveness evaluation.

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Policy effectiveness will depend heavily on local conditions and design.

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Saudi Arabia requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation public health options.

Evolutionary game of inland shipping pollution control under government co-supervision

In the context of the environmental improvement of inland shipping, this paper studies the interaction mechanism of tripartite behavioral strategy selection among the upstream and downstream governments and shipping companies in neighboring provinces. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model that introduces the prospect theory, and verifies numerical examples in combination with system dynamics simulation methods. Therefore, this study discusses the influence of evolutionary stability strategies on the development of electric ship industry. The results show that in order to realize effective governance of inland shipping pollution, the optimal evolutionary stability strategies of the three stakeholders should be as follows: active supervision in both upstream and downstream governments, and using clean energy in shipping companies. The improvement of the initial probability and risk preference of the three parties is conducive to promoting the faster and more stable industrial development, while reasonable profit distribution coefficient and compensation cost can promote the benign development of the inland river environmental governance system. In addition, the probability of upstream and downstream governments and shipping companies choosing the optimal strategies is positively related to the government fines, and negatively related to the regulatory costs. In particular, the application of prospect theory makes the result of evolutionary equilibrium more obvious.

The Temporal and Spatial Changes of Ship-Contributed PM2.5 Due to the Inter-Annual Meteorological Variation in Yangtze River Delta, China

Ship-exhausted air pollutants could cause negative impacts on air quality, climate change, and human health. Increasing attention has been paid to investigate the impact of ship emissions on air quality. However, the conclusions are often based on a specific year, the extent to which the inter-annual variation in meteorological conditions affects the contribution is not yet fully addressed. Therefore, in this study, the Weather Research and Forecast model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model(WRF/CMAQ) were employed to investigate the inter-annual variations in ship-contributed PM2.5 from 2010 to 2019. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China was selected as the target study area. To highlight the impact of inter-annual meteorological variations, the emission inventory and model configurations were kept the same for the 10-year simulation. We found that: (1) inter-annual meteorological variation had an evident impact on the ship-contributed PM2.5 in most coastal cities around YRD. Taking Shanghai as an example, the contribution varied between 3.05 and 5.74 µg/m3, with the fluctuation rate of ~65%; (2) the inter-annual changes in ship’s contribution showed a trend of almost simultaneous increase and decrease for most cities, which indicates that the impact of inter-annual meteorological variation was more regional than local; (3) the inter-annual changes in the northern part of YRD were significantly higher than those in the south; (4) the most significant inter-annual changes were found in summer, followed by spring, fall and winter.

An Energy Consumption Approach to Estimate Air Emission Reductions in Container Shipping

Container shipping is the largest producer of emissions within the maritime shipping industry. Hence, measures have been designed and implemented to reduce ship emission levels. IMO’s MARPOL Annex VI, with its future plan of applying Tier III requirements, the Energy Efficiency Design Index for new ships, and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan for all ships. To assist policy formulation and follow-up, this study applies an energy consumption approach to estimate container ship emissions. The volumes of sulphur oxide (SOx), nitrous oxide (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted from container ships are estimated using 2018 datasets on container shipping and average vessel speed records generated via AIS. Furthermore, the estimated reductions in SOx, NOx, PM, and CO2 are mapped for 2020. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the energy consumption approach is a valuable method to estimate ongoing emission reductions on a continuous basis and to fill data gaps where needed, as the latest worldwide container shipping emissions records date back to 2015. The presented analysis supports early-stage detection of environmental impacts in container shipping and helps to determine in which areas the greatest potential for emission reductions can be found.

Projection of ship emissions and their impact on air quality in 2030 in Yangtze River delta, China

China has been in the implementation phase of Domestic Ship Emission Control Areas (DECAs) regulation to reduce emissions of air pollutants from ships near populated areas since 2016. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the busiest port clusters in the world, accounting for 11% of global seaborne cargo throughput, so future improvements in shipping emission controls may still be important in this region. To assess the impact of future ship emissions on air quality of coastal areas, this study evaluates emissions reductions and air quality in 2030 for three scenarios (business as usual, stricter regulations, and aspirational policies) representing increasing levels of control compared with a base year of 2015. We projected ship emissions in the region using a bottom-up approach developed in this study and based on the historical ship automatic identification system (AIS) activity data. We then predicted air quality across the YRD region in 2030 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The annual average contributions of ship emissions to ambient PM_2.5 would decrease by 70.9%, 80.4%, and 86.2% relative to 2015 under the three scenarios, with the largest reductions of more than 4.1 μg/m³ near Shanghai Port under the aspirational scenario. Reductions in ship emissions generally led to lower levels of PM_2.5, particularly in most of the coastal cities in the YRD. Compared with a business-as-usual approach the aspirational scenario reduced SO₂, NO_x and PM_2.5 concentrations from shipping by 71.8%, 61.1% and 52.5%, respectively. It was also more effective than the stricter regulation scenario, suggesting that the requirement to use 0.1% sulfur fuel within a 100Nm DECA would have additional benefits to ambient PM_2.5 concentrations beyond 12Nm DECA area. This study provides evidence to inform deliberations on the potential air quality benefits of future control policies for ship emissions in China.

Impact of Sea Breeze Circulation on the Transport of Ship Emissions in Tangshan Port, China

A sea breeze is a local circulation that occurs in coastal regions from the poles to the equator. The adverse influence of ship emissions on air quality in coastal areas may be aggravated by the onshore flow of sea breeze circulation. However, our knowledge regarding the evolution of ship-emitted pollutants during a specific sea breeze episode is still limited. To address this knowledge gap, this study investigated the evolution of ship emissions during a sea breeze episode that occurred on 29 June, 2014 in Tangshan port in China by employing the WRF/Chem model. NO2, one of the primary pollutants emitted by ships, was selected as the target pollutant for investigation. The results indicate that the ground level NO2 concentration was considerably affected by sea breeze circulation. Although the onset of the sea breeze was delayed until nearly midday due to offshore synoptic winds, ship-emitted NO2 was transported to more than 100 km inland with the penetration of the sea breeze. Further investigation found that the averaged concentration of ship-contributed NO2 during the episode showed an evident downward trend as the distance from the coastline increased. Vertically, the shallow atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) on the sea limited the vertical dispersion of ship emissions, and the pollutant was transported shoreward by the sea breeze within this shallow ABL. The height of the ABLs is lowered in coastal regions due to the cooling effect of sea breezes which brings the cool marine air to the hot land surface. Ship-contributed NO2 was mostly trapped in the shallow ABL; thereby, its concentration increased.

The impact of ship emissions on PM2.5 and the deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Yangtze River Delta, China

Ship emissions contribute significantly to the deterioration of air quality, while their impacts on ambient PM_2.5 and depositions have not been comprehensively evaluated. This is especially true for China because it has a long coastline, busy shipping routes and many large ports. To fill this gap, this study applied the SMOKE/WRF/CMAQ modeling system to quantifying the impacts of ships on PM_2.5 compositions, annual and seasonal contribution to PM_2.5 as well as the wet and dry deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds over the land areas in YRD region for 2014. The results showed that 4.0% of annual PM_2.5 concentrations over the land areas could be explained by ship emissions and the largest contribution could reach up to 35.0% in port areas. Temporally, the contribution to PM_2.5 exhibited an obviously seasonal variation. The highest contribution was predicted in autumn (6.2%), followed by summer (5.4%), spring (3.6%) and winter (1.2%) for the land areas. Spatially, the contribution reached up to 13.6% along the coastline and dropped to 2.1% 300 km inland. As for the impacts on PM_2.5 components, the primary components were relatively small and increased mainly along the shipping routes and the Yangtze River, whereas the secondary components played a more important role in both water and land areas. The sulfur deposition due to ship emissions was occurred generally along the shipping routes and was dominated by the dry SO₂ deposition. The nitrogen depositions, on the contrary, was observed not only along the shipping routes but also extend to wide land areas. Further investigation revealed that ship emissions have caused an evident increase of dry nitrogen deposition in NO₂ and HNO₃, while a slight decrease in NH₃ over YRD region. These results indicated that comprehensive regulations of ship emissions are required considering their adverse effects on the ambient concentration of PM_2.5 and the deposition of sulfur and nitrogen.