SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence during the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy

Environmental, climatic, socio-economic factors and non-pharmacological interventions: A comprehensive four-domain risk assessment of COVID-19 hospitalization and death in Northern Italy

INTRODUCTION

Up to now, studies on environmental, climatic, socio-economic factors, and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) show diverse associations, often contrasting, with COVID-19 spread or severity. Most studies used large-scale, aggregated data, with limited adjustment for individual factors, most of them focused on viral spread than severe outcomes. Moreover, evidence simultaneously evaluating variables belonging to different exposure domains is scarce, and none analysing their collective impact on an individual level.

METHODS

Our population-based retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the comprehensive role played by exposure variables belonging to four different domains, environmental, climatic, socio-economic, and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI), on individual COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and death, analysing data from all patients (no. 68472) tested positive to a SARS-CoV-2 swab in Modena Province (Northern Italy) between February 2020 and August 2021. Using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, we estimated the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, investigating dose-response relationships through restricted cubic spline modelling for hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Several significant associations emerged: long-term exposure to air pollutants (NO2, PM10, PM2.5) was linked to hospitalization risk in a complex way and showed an increased risk for death; while humidity was inversely associated; temperature showed a U-shaped risk; wind speed showed a linear association with both outcomes. Precipitation increased hospitalization risk but decreased mortality. Socio-economic and NPI indices showed clear linear associations, respectively negative and positive, with both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings offer insights for evidence-based policy decisions, improving precision healthcare practices, and safeguarding public health in future pandemics. Refinement of pandemic response plans by healthcare authorities could benefit significantly.

Health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: infection spread and vaccination coverage in the schools of Modena province, Italy

Introduction

In Italy, over 4.8 million individuals aged 0-19 years have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to evaluate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within schools in Modena province and the influence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage.

Methods

We performed a survey in the period 1 September-15 December 2021, involving student population aged 0-19 years and related teachers screened for SARS-CoV-2 infection using nasopharyngeal swab after the detection of an index case within their class. During the study period, vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was actively offered to all subjects aged ≥12 years.

Results

A total of 13,934 subjects were tested, 12,534 students and 1,400 teachers (594 classes). We identified a total of 594 and 779 index and secondary cases, respectively. We found that 9.8% of students and 10.6% of teachers were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Overall at the test time, 32.5% were vaccinated with at least one dose of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Among secondary cases, 7.8% were vaccinated compared to 34.9% among negative tested subjects. A higher secondary attack rate was for non-vaccinated subjects rather than vaccinated ones (8.1% vs. 1.4%). Higher secondary attack rates were reported for subjects attending infant and primary school (5.9 and 9.6%, respectively). Lower secondary attack rates were for those who attended middle school (4.9%) and especially high school (1.7%).

Conclusion

Our results highlight the differential spread of the infection within various educational settings and that the vaccination, available in the study period for the population aged ≥12, have mitigated SARS-CoV-2 spread in high and middle schools.

COVID-19 teleassistance and teleconsultation: a matched case-control study (MIRATO project, Lombardy, Italy)

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine has been recognised as a powerful modality to shorten the length of hospital stay and to free up beds for the sicker patients. Lombardy, and in particular the areas of Bergamo, Brescia, and Milan, was one of the regions in Europe most hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary aim of the MIRATO project was to compare the incidence of severe events (hospital readmissions and mortality) in the first three months after discharge between COVID-19 patients followed by a Home-Based Teleassistance and Teleconsultation (HBTT group) program and those discharged home without Telemedicine support (non-HBTT group).

Methods

The study was designed as a matched case-control study. The non-HBTT patients were matched with the HBTT patients for sex, age, presence of COVID-19 pneumonia and number of comorbidities. After discharge, the HBTT group underwent a telecare nursing and specialist teleconsultation program at home for three months, including monitoring of vital signs and symptoms. Further, in this group we analysed clinical data, patients' satisfaction with the program, and quality of life.

Results

Four hundred twenty-two patients per group were identified for comparison. The median age in both groups was 70 ± 11 years (62% males). One or more comorbidities were present in 86% of the HBTT patients and 89% in the non-HBTT group (p = ns). The total number of severe events was 17 (14 hospitalizations and 3 deaths) in the HBTT group and 40 (26 hospitalizations and 16 deaths) in the non-HBTT group (p = 0.0007). The risk of hospital readmission or death after hospital discharge was significantly lower in HBTT patients (Log-rank Test p = 0.0002). In the HBTT group, during the 3-month follow-up, 5,355 teleassistance contacts (13 ± 4 per patient) were performed. The number of patients with one or more symptoms declined significantly: from 338 (78%) to 183 (45%) (p < 0.00001). Both the physical (ΔPCS12: 5.9 ± 11.4) component and the mental (ΔMCS12: 4.4 ± 12.7) component of SF-12 improved significantly (p < 0.0001). Patient satisfaction with the program was very high in all participants.

Conclusions

Compared to usual care, an HBTT program can reduce severe events (hospital admissions/mortality) at 3-months from discharge and improve symptoms and quality of life.

Clinical trial registration

www.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04898179.

Host nasopharyngeal transcriptome dataset of a SARS-CoV-2 positive Italian cohort

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has affected millions of people worldwide and has significant implications for public health. Host transcriptomics profiling provides comprehensive understanding of how the virus interacts with host cells and how the host responds to the virus. COVID-19 disease alters the host transcriptome, affecting cellular pathways and key molecular functions. To contribute to the global effort to understand the virus's effect on host cell transcriptome, we have generated a dataset from nasopharyngeal swabs of 35 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 from the Campania region in Italy during the three outbreaks, with different clinical conditions. This dataset will help to elucidate the complex interactions among genes and can be useful in the development of effective therapeutic pathways.

High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies

Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .

The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave

The relation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 spread remains uncertain, particularly with regard to the role of temperature, relative humidity and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To assess this relation, we investigated disease spread within Italy during 2020. The pandemic had a large and early impact in Italy, and during 2020 the effects of vaccination and viral variants had not yet complicated the dynamics. We used non-linear, spline-based Poisson regression of modeled temperature, UV and relative humidity, adjusting for mobility patterns and additional confounders, to estimate daily rates of COVID-19 new cases, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths during the two waves of the pandemic in Italy during 2020. We found little association between relative humidity and COVID-19 endpoints in both waves, whereas UV radiation above 40 kJ/m² showed a weak inverse association with hospital and ICU admissions in the first wave, and a stronger relation with all COVID-19 endpoints in the second wave. Temperature above 283 K (10 °C/50 °F) showed a strong non-linear negative relation with COVID-19 endpoints, with inconsistent relations below this cutpoint in the two waves. Given the biological plausibility of a relation between temperature and COVID-19, these data add support to the proposition that temperature above 283 K, and possibly high levels of solar UV radiation, reduced COVID-19 spread.

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

The goal of the study here is to analyze and assess whether strict containment policies to cope with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis are effective interventions to reduce high numbers of infections and deaths. A homogenous sample of 31 countries is categorized in two sets: countries with high or low strictness of public policy to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings here suggest that countries with a low intensity of strictness have average confirmed cases and fatality rates related to COVID-19 lower than countries with high strictness in containment policies (confirmed cases are 24.69% vs. 26.06% and fatality rates are 74.33% vs. 76.38%, respectively, in countries with low and high strictness of COVID-19 public policies of containment). What this study adds is that high levels of strict restriction policies may not be useful measures of control in containing the spread and negative impact of pandemics similar to COVID-19 and additionally a high strictness in containment policies generates substantial social and economic costs. These findings can be explained with manifold socioeconomic and environmental factors that support transmission dynamics and circulation of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, high levels of strictness in public policy (and also a high share of administering new vaccines) seem to have low effectiveness to stop pandemics similar to COVID-19 driven by mutant viral agents. These results here suggest that the design of effective health policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be underpinned in a good governance of countries and adoption of new technology, rather than strict and generalized health polices having ambiguous effects of containment in society.

COVID-19 vaccination knowledge, attitudes and practices among the general population of Romania during the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

Romania began its COVID-19 immunization programme with approved vaccinations in three stages, as follows: The first step of vaccination is for health and social professionals, the second stage is for high-risk persons and the third stage is for the remainder of the general public. This study aims at assessment of knowledge, attitude and practice towards COVID-19 and vaccination against COVID-19 in the Romanian population during the third wave of the pandemic.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was based on a Bosnian and Herzegovinian study on COVID-19 vaccination during the country's third wave of COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

Our study sample, dominantly female (629; 61.0%), with a bachelor's degree (734; 71.2%), either single (539; 52.3%) or in a relationship (363; 35.2%), engaged in intellectual labour (910; 88.3%) and living in an urban environment (874; 84.8%) with a mean age of 25.07 ± 8.21 years, 294 (28.5%) people with COVID-19 symptoms and 86 (8.3%) were tested COVID-19 positive, had a mean knowledge score of 16.38 ± 4.0 with correct answer rates on questions ranging from 30.1% to 88.2%. Being single (odds ratio = 3.92, p = 0.029) or in a relationship (odds ratio = 3.79, p = 0.034), having a bachelor's degree and higher (odds ratio = 1.61, p = 0.006) and being COVID-19 tested (odds ratio = 1.82, p < 0.001) were associated with higher knowledge test scores. Our sample had relatively optimistic attitudes towards final COVID-19 disease containment (712; 69.1%) and vaccination programmes (679; 65.9%). The majority of the sample followed socio-epidemiological measures and did not visit places of mass social gatherings (666; 64.1%) and wore masks (992; 95.7%) while being outside their home. In terms of vaccination rates, 382 (37.0%) of the individuals were presently immunized against COVID-19. Higher knowledge test scores (>15 points) (odds ratio = 1.66, p = 0.002) and positive attitudes of this study (odds ratio = 1.59, p = 0.001, odds ratio = 4.16, p < 0.001) were identified as independent predictors for vaccinating against COVID-19.

Conclusion

Romanian citizens have had good knowledge, optimistic attitudes and appropriate practices towards COVID-19 vaccination during the third wave of COVID-19 outbreak in the country. Higher knowledge regarding the disease and vaccination against it not only increased attitudes towards the end of the pandemic, but also increased the willingness to be vaccinated and to avoid infection risk factors.

Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Two Years in Italy

Italy was the first country in the western world to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, arguably among the worst-affected ones, counting 12 million cases and 150 thousand deaths two years since the first case. Facing new challenges, Italy has enacted different strategies and policies to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and treat those affected by COVID-19. This narrative review provided an overview of factors, measures, and actions that shaped Italy's first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic by investigating epidemiological data and using a mixed-method approach. This narrative review aimed to summarize the most relevant aspects and measures and analyze available data to provide policymakers and healthcare providers with the instruments to learn from this pandemic and improve their preparedness for future pandemic events. The first two years of the pandemic differ in that, during the first year, significant necessary changes to the way health systems were organized were implemented, increasing healthcare spending and adopting social and physical distancing measures that were stricter than the ones adopted in the second year. However, as the pandemic progressed, increased knowledge of the virus and related variants, as well as the introduction of highly effective vaccines, which were not equally available to the whole population, resulted in a stratification of COVID-19 infections and deaths based on factors such as age, vaccination status, and individual susceptibility to the virus.

Long-Term Survival among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the First Three Epidemic Waves: An Observational Study in a Northern Italy Hospital

The mortality rate of hospitalized COVID-19 patients differed strongly between the first three pandemic waves. Nevertheless, their long-term survival has been poorly assessed. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics and mortality rates of 825 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection who were hospitalized at the Alessandria hub hospital, in Northern Italy, during the first fifty days of the first three pandemic waves. Each subject was followed in terms of vital status for six months from the date of hospital admission or until deceased. Patients admitted during the three waves differed in age (p = 0.03), disease severity (p < 0.0001), Charlson comorbidity index (p = 0.0002), oxygen therapy (p = 0.002), and invasive mechanical ventilation (p < 0.0001). By the end of follow-up, 309 deaths (38.7%) were observed, of which 186 occurred during hub hospitalization (22.5%). Deaths were distributed differently among the waves (p < 0.0001), resulting in being higher amongst those subjects admitted during the first wave. The COVID-19 infection was reported as the main cause of death and patients with a higher mortality risk were those aged ≥65 years [adjusted HR = 3.40 (95% CI 2.20-5.24)], with a higher disease severity [adjusted HR = 1.87 (95%CI 1.43-2.45)], and those requiring oxygen therapy [adjusted HR = 2.30 (95%CI 1.61-3.30)]. In conclusion, COVID-19 patients admitted to our hub hospital during the second and the third waves had a lower risk of long-term mortality than those admitted during the first. Older age, more severe disease, and the need for oxygen therapy were among the strongest risk factors for poor prognosis.

How the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Attendance at a Tertiary Orthopedic Center Emergency Department: A Comparison between the First and Second Waves

Italy was the first European country to face the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. The country quickly implemented strategies to contain contagions and re-organize medical resources. We evaluated the COVID-19 effects on the activity of a tertiary-level orthopedic emergency department (ED) during the first and second pandemic waves. We retrospectively collected and compared clinical radiological data of ED admissions during four periods: period A, first pandemic wave; period B, second pandemic wave; period C, three months before the COVID-19 outbreak; period D, same timeframe of the first wave but in 2019. During period A, we found a reduction in ED admissions (-68.2% and -59.9% compared with periods D and C) and a decrease in white codes (non-urgent) (-7.5%) compared with pre-pandemic periods, with a slight increase for all other codes: +6.3% green (urgent, not critical), +0.8% yellow (moderately critical) and +0.3% red (highly urgent, risk of death). We observed an increased rate of fracture diagnosis in period A: +14.9% and +13.3% compared with periods D and C. Our study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a drastic change in the ED patient flow and clinical radiological activity, with a marked reduction in admissions and an increased rate of more severe triage codes and diagnosed fractures.

Standard Versus Advanced Protective Measures in a COVID-Free Surgical Pathway

Introduction The importance of coronavirus disease (COVID)-free surgical pathways during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been demonstrated. However, the extent of protective measures to be applied against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), particularly before vaccines became available, remained unclear. Methods This retrospective study included all SARS-CoV-2-negative patients admitted to the COVID-free pathway of a regional abdominal surgery hub center in Northern Italy over 12 months, before the vaccination campaign. During the first seven months, basic protective measures against SARS-CoV-2 were adopted (surgical masks, swabs for symptomatic patients, and intra- or interhospital transfers), since patients were treated as effectively negative (standard management). During the last five months, advanced measures were implemented (enhanced personal protections and systematic control swabs), as patients were considered potentially positive (advanced management). The aim of this article was to compare SARS-CoV-2 incidence and surgical outcomes in these periods. Results A total of 283 and 194 patients were admitted under standard and advanced management, respectively; pre-admission data differed only in the rate of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (2.5% versus 6.7%, p= 0.034). The SARS-CoV-2 incidence was 3.9% and 3.1% for standard and advanced periods, respectively (p = 0.835). Two internal outbreaks developed during the standard phase. The advanced protocol significantly increased the rate of patients re-tested for SARS-CoV-2 (83% versus 41.7%, p < 0.001) and allowed early detection of all infections, which remained sporadic. Surgical outcomes were similar. Conclusions Advanced management was instrumental in detecting positive patients early and preventing outbreaks, without affecting surgical results; accordingly, it stands as a reproducible model for future pandemic scenarios.

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.

Is This All COVID-19's Fault? A Study on Trainees in One of the Most Affected Italian Cities

Many studies have investigated the state of the health of healthcare workers during the acute period of the pandemic. Yet, few studies have assessed the health of such professionals after the pandemic and in a less dramatic period. This study involved a particular sample represented by residents in anaesthesia-resuscitation and psychiatry at a university in northern Italy particularly affected by the pandemic. The objectives were to investigate some indicators of health and well-being and compare the two groups of trainees. Using Google Forms, the following tests were proposed: the General Health Questionnaire, Maslach Burnout Inventory, Subjective Happiness Scale, Satisfaction with Life Scale, Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations, Brief Resilience Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, as well as an ad hoc questionnaire. A qualifying element of the work was the discussion of the results with the trainees. Various strengths have emerged, such as high values of resilience and job satisfaction; a positive assessment of the support received from the work team; an articulate use of coping strategies; and good levels of happiness and satisfaction with life, in both specialities. However, a widespread anxiety also emerged, which appears to be more attributable to concerns about professional evaluation, rather than the pandemic itself. In summary, the trainees seem to have found a fair amount of personal balance, whereas the relationship with the patient seems to be more compromised. In the comparison between specialities, the only significant differences are the levels of depersonalisation and resilience, both of which are higher in anaesthetists.

Comparison of the characteristics, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 between first and second/third wave in a hospital setting in Lombardy: a retrospective cohort study

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents a major health problem in terms of deaths and long-term sequelae. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at Montichiari Hospital (Brescia, Italy) to better understand the determinants of outcome in two different COVID-19 outbreaks. A total of 634 unvaccinated patients admitted from local emergency room to the Internal Medicine ward with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and a moderate-to-severe COVID-19 were included in the study. A group of 260 consecutive patients during SARS-CoV-2 first wave (from February to May 2020) and 374 consecutive patients during SARS-CoV-2 2nd/3rd wave (from October 2020 to May 2021) were considered. Demographic data were not significantly different between waves, except a lower prevalence of female sex during first wave. Mortality was significantly higher during the 1st wave than in the following periods (24.2% vs. 11%; p < 0.001). Time from symptoms onset to hospital admission was longer during first wave (8 ± 6 vs. 6 ± 4 days; p < 0.001), while in-hospital staying was significantly shorter (10 ± 14 vs. 15 ± 11 days; p < 0.001). Other significant differences were a larger use of corticosteroids and low-molecular weight heparin as well less antibiotic prescription during the second wave. Respiratory, bio-humoral and X-ray scores were significantly poorer at the time of admission in first-wave patients. After a multivariate regression analysis, C-reactive protein and procalcitonin values, % fraction of inspired oxygen on admission to the Internal Medicine ward and length of hospital stay and duration of symptoms were the strongest predictors of outcome. Concomitant anti-hypertensive treatment (including ACE-inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers) did not affect the outcome. In conclusion, our data suggest that earlier diagnosis, timely hospital admission and rational use of the therapeutic options reduced the systemic inflammatory response and were associated to a better outcome during the 2nd/3rd wave.

Clinical-epidemiologic variation in patients treated in the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Lambayeque, Peru: A cluster analysis

OBJECTIVES

To identify differences in the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of patients during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic at the EsSalud Lambayeque health care network, Peru.

METHODS

An analytical cross-sectional study of 53,912 patients enrolled during the first and second waves of COVID-19 was conducted. Cluster analysis based on clustering large applications (CLARA) was applied to clinical-epidemiologic data presented at the time of care. The two pandemic waves were compared using clinical-epidemiologic data from epidemiologic surveillance.

RESULTS

Cluster analysis identified four COVID-19 groups with a characteristic pattern. Cluster 1 included the largest number of participants in both waves, and the participants were predominantly female. Cluster 2 included patients with gastrointestinal, respiratory, and systemic symptoms. Cluster 3 was the "severe" cluster, characterized by older adults and patients with dyspnea or comorbidities (cardiovascular, diabetes, obesity). Cluster 4 included asymptomatic, pregnant, and less severe patients. We found differences in all clinical-epidemiologic characteristics according to the cluster to which they belonged.

CONCLUSION

Using cluster analysis, we identified characteristic patterns in each group. Respiratory, gastrointestinal, dyspnea, anosmia, and ageusia symptoms were higher in the second COVID-19 wave than the first COVID-19 wave.

Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis

During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R ₀(t), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R ₀(t) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R ₀(t) ranged from 2.15 (South) to 2.61 (North) with an increase following school reopening and a decline at the end of October. The predictive performance of the regional models, assessed through cross validation, was good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 7.2% and 10.9% when considering prediction horizons of 7 and 14 days, respectively. Average temperature, urbanization, characteristics of family medicine and healthcare system, economic dynamism, and use of public transport could partly explain the regional heterogeneity. The GSA indicated the robustness of the regional R ₀(t) curves to different assumptions on IFR. The infectious period turned out to have a key role in determining the model results, but without compromising between-region comparisons.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological health in a sample of Italian adults: A three-wave longitudinal study

The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting societal restrictions have had negative implications for mental health in the general population. The aims of the present longitudinal study were (i) to investigate changes in psychopathological symptoms and psychological well-being in a sample of Italian individuals surveyed at different points of the pandemic and (ii) to evaluate the potential risk and protective factors associated with the psychopathological outcomes. Self-reported data on psychiatric symptoms, and psychological well-being were collected in March 2020 (T0, the lockdown phase), in May 2020 (T1, the end of the lockdown phase), and in November 2020 (T2, the second wave of COVID-19 infection). 1258 participants (M_age=23.43, SD_age=6.45; 75.4% female) were recruited at T0. Of these, 712 also completed the T1 survey, and 369 also completed the T2 survey. A significant decrease in anxiety, depressive, posttraumatic, and obsessive-compulsive symptoms and a significant increase in psychological well-being were observed from T0 to T1. All psychopathological symptoms increased, and psychological well-being decreased significantly from T1 to T2. Several demographic, psychological and COVID-19-related factors emerged as predictors over the course of the pandemic. The current findings indicated that psychological health covaried with the intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated societal restrictions.

Improvements throughout the Three Waves of COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from 4 Million Inhabitants of North-West Italy

At the very beginning of the European spread of SARS-CoV-2, Piedmont was one of the most affected regions in Italy, with a strong impact on healthcare organizations. In this study, we evaluated the characteristics and outcomes of the COVID-19 patients in an entire region during the first three pandemic waves, identifying similarities and differences in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic’s timeline. We collected the health-administrative data of all the Piedmont COVID-19 patients infected during the first three pandemic waves (1 March 2020–15 April 2020; 15 October 2020–15 December 2020; 1 March 2021–15 April 2021, respectively). We compared differences among the waves in subjects positive for SARS-CoV-2 and in patients admitted to ICU. Overall, 18.621 subjects tested positive during the first wave (405 patients/day), 144.350 (2366.4 patients/day) in the second, and 81.823 (1778.8 patients/day) in the third. In the second and third waves, we observed a reduction in median age, comorbidity burden, mortality in outpatients, inpatients, and patients admitted to ICU, in intubation, invasive ventilation and tracheostomy, and a parallel increase in the use of CPAP. Our study confirmed a trend towards younger and healthier patients over time but also showed an independent effect of the period on mortality and ICU admission. The appearance of new viral variants, the starting of vaccination, and organizational improvements in tracking, outpatients and inpatients management could have influenced these trends.

A cross-sectional study of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among healthcare workers and residents of long-term facilities in Italy, January 2021

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are high-risk settings for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study aimed to describe SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among residents of LTCFs and health-care workers (HCWs). Subjects were recruited in January 2021 among unvaccinated HCWs of LTCFs and hospitals and residents of LTCFs in Northern Italy. Information concerning previous SARS-CoV-2 infections and a sample of peripheral blood were collected. Anti-S SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies were measured using the EUROIMMUN Anti-SARS-CoV-2 QuantiVac ELISA kit (EUROIMMUN Medizinische Labordiagnostika AG). For subjects with previous COVID-19 infection, gender, age, type of subject (HCW or resident), and time between last positive swab and blood draw were considered as possible determinants of two outcomes: the probability to obtain a positive serological result and antibody titer. Six hundred and fifty-eight subjects were enrolled. 56.1% of all subjects and 65% of residents presented positive results (overall median antibody titer: 31.0 RU/ml). Multivariable models identified a statistically significant 4% decrease in the estimated antibody level for each 30-day increase from the last positive swab. HCWs were associated with significant odds for seroreversion over time (OR: 0.926 for every 30 days, 95% CI: 0.860-0.998), contrary to residents (OR: 1.059, 95% CI: 0.919-1.22). Age and gender were not factors predicting seropositivity over time. Residents could have a higher probability of maintaining a seropositive status over time compared to HCWs.

Comparison of the First and Second Wave of Infections by SARS-CoV-2: A Retrospective and Longitudinal Study From a Primary Health Care Center in Santiago of Chile

The current COVID-19 pandemic is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Many countries have reported the experience of at least two contagion waves, describing associated mortality rates and population behavior. The analysis of the effect of this pandemic in different localities can provide valuable information on the key factors to consider in the face of future massive infectious diseases. This work describes the first retrospective and comparative study about behavior during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile from a primary Healthcare Center. From 19,313 real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) tests assessed, the selected 1,694 positive diagnostics showed a decrease in mortality rate in the second wave (0.6%) compared with the first (4.6%). In addition, we observed that infections in the second wave were mainly in young patients with reduced comorbidities. The population with a complete vaccination schedule shows a decrease in the duration of symptoms related to the disease, and patients with more comorbidities tend to develop severe illness. This report provides evidence to partially understand the behavior and critical factors in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in the population of Santiago of Chile.

Efficacy versus abundancy: Comparing vaccination schemes

We introduce a novel compartmental model accounting for the effects of vaccine efficacy, deployment rates and timing of initiation of deployment. We simulate different scenarios and initial conditions, and we find that higher abundancy and rate of deployment of low efficacy vaccines lowers the cumulative number of deaths in comparison to slower deployment of high efficacy vaccines. We also forecast that, at the same daily deployment rate, the earlier introduction of vaccination schemes with lower efficacy would also lower the number of deaths with respect to a delayed introduction of high efficacy vaccines, which can however, still achieve lower numbers of infections and better herd immunity.

The determinants of the changing speed of spread of COVID-19 across Italy

The COVID-19 epidemic showed inter-regional differences in Italy. We used an ecological study design and publicly available data to compare the basic reproduction number (R 0), the doubling time of the infection (DT) and the COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and time lag to slow down up to a 50-days doubling time in the first and the second 2020 epidemic waves (δ DT50) by region. We also explored socio-economic, environmental and lifestyle variables with multiple regression analysis. COVID-19 CI and CFR changed in opposite directions in the second vs . the first wave: the CI increased sixfold with no evidence of a relationship with the testing rate; the CFR decreased in the regions where it was initially higher but increased where it was lower. The R 0 did not change; the initially mildly affected regions, but not those where the first wave had most severely hit, showed a greater δ DT50 amplitude. Vehicular traffic, average temperature, population density, average income, education and household size showed a correlation with COVID-19 outcomes. The deadly experience in the first epidemic wave and the varying preparedness of the local health systems might have contributed to the inter-regional differences in the second COVID-19 epidemic wave.

Zinc and selenium supplementation in COVID-19 prevention and treatment: a systematic review of the experimental studies

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the world's population in the last two years. Along with non-pharmacological public health interventions, major efforts have also been made to identify effective drugs or active substances for COVID-19 prevention and treatment. These include, among many others, the trace elements zinc and selenium, based on laboratory studies and some observational human studies. However, both of these study designs are not adequate to identify and approve treatments in human medicine, and experimental studies in the form of randomized controlled trials are needed to demonstrate the effectiveness and the safety of any interventions.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review in which we searched for published and unpublished clinical trials using zinc or selenium supplementation to treat or prevent COVID-19 in the Pubmed, Scopus and ClinicalTrials databases up to 10 January 2022.

RESULTS

Amongst the published studies, we did not find any trial with selenium, whereas we retrieved four eligible randomized clinical trials using zinc supplementation, only one of which was double-blind. One of these trials looked at the effect of the intervention on the rate of new SARS-CoV-2 infections, and three at the COVID-19 clinical outcome in already infected individuals. The study populations of the four trials were very heterogeneous, ranging from uninfected individuals to those hospitalized for COVID-19. Only two studies investigated zinc alone in the intervention arm with no differences in the endpoints. The other two studies examined zinc in association with one or more drugs and supplements in the intervention arm, therefore making it impossible to disentangle any specific effects of the element. In addition, we identified 22 unpublished ongoing clinical trials, 19 on zinc, one on selenium and two on both elements.

CONCLUSION

No trials investigated the effect of selenium supplementation on COVID-19, while the very few studies on the effects of zinc supplementation did not confirm efficacy. Therefore, preventive or therapeutic interventions against COVID-19 based on zinc or selenium supplementation are currently unjustified, although when the results of the on-going studies are published, this may change our conclusion.

Robustness analysis for quantitative assessment of vaccination effects and SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Italy

Background

In Italy, the beginning of 2021 was characterized by the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and by the availability of effective vaccines that contributed to the mitigation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to the avoidance of hospital collapse.

Methods

We analyzed the COVID-19 propagation in Italy starting from September 2021 with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model that takes into account SARS-CoV-2 lineages, intervention measures and efficacious vaccines. The model was calibrated with the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration (CRC) using COVID-19 data from September 2020 to May 2021. Here, we apply the Conditional Robustness Analysis (CRA) algorithm to the calibrated model in order to identify model parameters that most affect the epidemic diffusion in the long-term scenario. We focus our attention on vaccination and intervention parameters, which are the key parameters for long-term solutions for epidemic control.

Results

Our model successfully describes the presence of new variants and the impact of vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the Italian scenario. The CRA analysis reveals that vaccine efficacy and waning immunity play a crucial role for pandemic control, together with asymptomatic transmission. Moreover, even though the presence of variants may impair vaccine effectiveness, virus transmission can be kept low with a constant vaccination rate and low restriction levels.

Conclusions

In the long term, a policy of booster vaccinations together with contact tracing and testing will be key strategies for the containment of SARS-CoV-2 spread.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07395-2.

On the Origin and Propagation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Italian Province of Trento, a Tourist Region of Northern Italy

Background: Trentino is an Italian province with a tourism-based economy, bordering the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where the two earliest and largest outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in Italy. The earliest cases in Trentino were reported in the first week of March 2020, with most of the cases occurring in the winter sport areas in the Dolomites mountain range. The number of reported cases decreased over the summer months and was followed by a second wave in the autumn and winter of 2020. Methods: we performed high-coverage Oxford Nanopore sequencing of 253 positive SARS-CoV-2 swabs collected in Trentino between March and December 2020. Results: in this work, we analyzed genome sequences to trace the routes through which the virus entered the area, and assessed whether the autumnal resurgence could be attributed to lineages persisting undetected during summer, or as a consequence of new introductions. Conclusions: Comparing the draft genomes analyzed with a large selection of European sequences retrieved from GISAID we found that multiple introductions of the virus occurred at the early stage of the epidemics; the two epidemic waves were unrelated; the second wave was due to reintroductions of the virus in summer when traveling restrictions were uplifted.

Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the Northern Italy population before the COVID-19 second wave

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections. It swept across the world in the spring of 2020, and so far it has caused a huge number of hospitalizations and deaths. In the present study, the authors investigated serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in the period of June 1-September 25, 2020, in 7561 subjects in Modena, Northern Italy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study population included 5454 workers referred to testing by their companies, and 2107 residents in the Modena area who accessed testing through self-referral.

RESULTS

The authors found the overall seroprevalence to be 4.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2-5.2%), which was higher in women (5.4%, 95% CI: 4.5-6.2%) than in men (4.3%, 95% CI: 3.7-4.9%), and in the oldest age groups (7.3%, 95% CI: 5.2-9.3% for persons aged 60-69 years, and 11.8%, 95% CI: 8.6-15.1%, for persons aged ≥70 years). Among the occupational categories, the highest seroprevalence was found in healthcare workers (8.8%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.5%), dealers and vehicle repairers (5.2%, 95% CI: 2.9-7.6%), and workers in the sports sector (4.0%, 95% CI: 1.8-6.1%), while there was little or no such evidence for those employed in sectors such as transport and storage, accommodation and restaurant services, and the school system.

CONCLUSIONS

These results have allowed, for the first time, to assess population seroprevalence in this area of Italy severely hit by the epidemic, while at the same time identifying the subgroups at a higher risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(1):63-74.

The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy

Background

The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks.

Methods

We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24–June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1–December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression.

Results

For provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February–June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September–December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.

A Modeling Study on Vaccination and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy

From the end of 2020, different vaccines against COVID-19 have been approved, offering a glimmer of hope and relief worldwide. However, in late 2020, new cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started to re-surge, worsened by the emergence of highly infectious variants. To study this scenario, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model with lockdown measures used in our previous work with the inclusion of new lineages and mass vaccination campaign. We estimate model parameters using the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration in two case studies: Italy and the Umbria region, the Italian region being worse affected by the emergence of variants. We then use the model to explore the dynamics of COVID-19, given different vaccination paces and a policy of gradual reopening. Our findings confirm the higher reproduction number of Umbria and the increase of transmission parameters due to the presence of new variants. The results illustrate the importance of preserving population-wide interventions, especially during the beginning of vaccination. Finally, under the hypothesis of waning immunity, the predictions show that a seasonal vaccination with a constant rate would probably be necessary to control the epidemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Detection to Expand Testing Capacity for COVID-19: Results from a Hospital Emergency Department Testing Site

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 antigen detection has currently expanded the testing capacity for COVID-19, which yet relies on the SARS-CoV-2 RNA RT-PCR amplification.

OBJECTIVES

To report on a COVID-19 testing algorithm from a tertiary care hospital emergency department (ED) that combines both antigen (performed on the ED) and RT-PCR (performed outside the ED) testing.

METHODS

Between December 2020 and January 2021, in a priori designated, spatially separated COVID-19 or non-COVID-19 ED areas, respectively, symptomatic or asymptomatic patients received SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing on nasopharyngeal swab samples. Antigen results were promptly accessible to guide subsequent, outside performed confirmatory (RT-PCR) testing.

RESULTS

Overall, 1083 (100%) of 1083 samples in the COVID-19 area and 1815 (49.4%) of 3670 samples in the non-COVID-19 area had antigen results that required confirmation by RT-PCR. Antigen positivity rates were 12.4% (134/1083) and 3.7% (66/1815), respectively. Compared to RT-PCR testing results, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of antigen testing were, respectively, 68.0%, 98.3%, 88.8%, and 94.1% in the COVID-19 area, and 41.9%, 97.3%, 27.3%, and 98.6% in non-COVID-19 area. Practically, RT-PCR tests were avoided in 50.6% (1855/3670) of non-COVID-19 area samples (all antigen negative) from patients who, otherwise, would have needed antigen result confirmation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our algorithm had value to preserve RT-PCR from avoidable usage and, importantly, to save time, which translated into a timely RT-PCR result availability in the COVID-19 area.