Can weather help explain 'why now?': The potential role of hourly temperature as a stroke trigger

The Impact of Power Outages on Cardiovascular Hospitalizations Among Medicare Fee-for-service Enrollees in New York State, 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

Power outages are common. They can result in exposure to extreme temperatures by shutting off temperature-controlling devices, and thereby also cause stress. Consequently, outages may precipitate cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related hospitalizations. We assessed this relationship among older adults.

METHODS

We leveraged 2017-2018 data from 245,452 New York State Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries (65+ years) with 390,530 CVD hospitalizations. Using NY Department of Public Services data, we calculated total hours without power 1 day, 1-2 days, and 1-3 days before case and control periods, with an outage ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA)-hour defined based on ≥10% of customers in a ZCTA-hour without power in primary analyses. We used a case-crossover study design and ran conditional logistic regression to assess associations separately within each urbanicity level: New York City (NYC), non-NYC urban, and rural areas. We additionally stratified models by warm versus cool season, individual-level age and sex, and ZCTA-level socioeconomic factors. Secondarily, we considered emergency (n = 298,910) and nonemergency hospitalizations separately.

RESULTS

We generally observed null associations between power outages and all CVD hospitalizations across New York State and within subgroups. For example, in NYC, we observed a rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval: 0.85, 1.30) for each additional power outage hour 1 day prior.

CONCLUSIONS

The case-crossover design we used eliminated time-fixed confounding, but there were a limited number of exposed cases, limiting statistical power. Future studies should investigate co-occurring severe weather, span additional years, and evaluate other and broader geographic areas.

Interactive Effect of Air Temperature and Fine Particulate Matter on the Hospital Admissions for Stroke in Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a major health challenge in China. Numerous studies have linked stroke with temperature and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but findings varied by stroke subtypes and regions, and few explored the interactive effects of air temperature and PM2.5. This study examines the association between air temperature, PM2.5, and stroke hospital admissions in Shenzhen, a subtropical monsoon city in southern China.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied time-series generalized additive models to estimate the individual and interactive effects of air temperature and PM2.5 on stroke hospital admissions using daily records from 2015 to 2016. Subgroup analysis by sex, age, and education level was conducted, assessing admissions for hemorrhagic (n=8752) and ischemic (n=33 233) stroke separately. For hemorrhagic stroke, a 1 °C increase in temperature was significantly associated with a 2.3% (95% CI, -3.2% to -1.3%) decrease in hospital admissions, whereas higher levels of PM2.5 indicated an increased risk, though not significant. Conversely, for ischemic stroke, a 1 °C rise was significantly associated with a 1.0% (95% CI, 0.4%-1.6%) increase in admissions. The impact PM2.5 on stroke was more pronounced at higher concentrations, while showing no evident effects at lower levels. Interaction effects between temperature and PM2.5 were statistically significant for both stroke types, with stronger effects observed at 10 to 20 °C and PM2.5 concentration around 80 to 100 μg/m3.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests lower air temperature may increase hemorrhagic stroke risk, whereas higher temperature and higher PM2.5 exposure may increase ischemic stroke risk. Interactive effects between temperature and PM2.5 were observed for both stroke types in Shenzhen.

Impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on acute stroke risk: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020

Background

Climate factors greatly affect cardiovascular health, with stroke ranking among serious global concerns. However, the impact of rapid temperature fluctuations on stroke risk remains underexplored. Given Taiwan's aging population and the intensifying effects of climate change, understanding influence of ambient temperatures on stroke risk is crucial for public health protection. This study aimed to explore the link between ambient temperature, sudden day-to-day temperature changes, and stroke onset in Taiwan, taking air pollutants into consideration.

Methods

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study from 2001 to 2020 using Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) within conditional logistic regression to examine lagged associations between temperature parameters and stroke risk. We analyzed associations separately for total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke to identify potential differences in risk patterns, using odds ratios (ORs) relative to the temperature associated with the lowest stroke risk. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) identified the study population, including 1,100,074 first-time stroke emergency events and self-matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke onset dates as controls. The primary exposure assessments included daily temperatures (mean, maximum, and minimum) and temperature fluctuations (diurnal temperature range (DTR), sudden day-to-day temperature increases (TDI), and sudden day-to-day temperature decrease (TDD)), adjusted for air pollutants (PM2.5, O3, SO2, and NO2), and rainfall. Lag periods up to 13 days prior to the corresponding event or control days were used to examine the lag effect of stroke risk.

Findings

Through DLNM exposure-lag-response effect analysis after adjustment for PM2.5, O3, SO2, NO2, and rainfall, the study revealed that when TDI exceeded 6 °C, the risk of ischemic stroke more than doubled compared to the lowest risk temperature (OR: 2.173, 95% CI: 1.887, 2.501). The risk continued to rise until 9 °C, with a second peak observed when TDI exceeded 16 °C (OR: 2.096, 95% CI: 1.733, 2.535). Conversely, TDD exceeding 14 °C was linked to heightened hemorrhagic stroke risk (OR: 2.187, 95% CI: 2.055, 2.326). Additionally, daily maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C was associated with an increased stroke risk, primarily affecting ischemic stroke, while daily minimum temperature below 16 °C was strongly associated with a doubled risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

Interpretation

Our findings indicate that sudden day-to-day temperature increases and decreases are significant predictors of stroke onset. These results emphasize a noteworthy relationship between temperature and stroke risk over consecutive days, supporting interventions aimed at reducing stroke incidence.

Funding

This research was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Executive Yuan, Taiwan, grant No. NSTC-111-2119-M-865-002.

Modification effects of immigration status and comorbidities on associations of heat and heatwave with stroke morbidity

BACKGROUND

Heat and heatwave have been associated with stroke morbidity, but it is still unclear whether immigrants from different geographic regions and patients with comorbidity are more vulnerable to heat and heatwave.

METHODS

Time-stratified case-crossover design combined with generalized additive quasi-Poisson models were used to quantify the relative risks (RRs) of heat and heatwave on first-ever stroke morbidity during 0-7 lag days. Attributable fractions (AFs) were estimated to assess the first-ever stroke morbidity burden due to heat and heatwave. Stratified analyses for sex, age, disease subtypes, resident characteristics, and comorbidity type were performed to identify potential modification effects.

RESULTS

Heat and heatwave were associated with first-ever stroke morbidity, with the AF of 2.535% (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI) = 0.748, 4.205) and 2.409% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.228, 3.400), respectively. Among northern and southern immigrants, the AF for heat was 2.806% (0.031, 5.069) and 2.798% (0.757, 4.428), respectively, and the AF for heatwave was 2.918% (0.561, 4.618) and 2.387% (1.174, 3.398), respectively, but the effects of both on natives were statistically insignificant. Among patients with hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes, the AF for heat was 3.318% (1.225, 5.007), 4.237% (1.037, 6.770), and 4.860% (1.171, 7.827), respectively, and the AF for heatwave was 2.960% (1.701, 3.993), 2.771% (0.704, 4.308), and 2.652% (0.653, 4.185), respectively. However, the effects of both on patients without comorbidity were statistically insignificant.

CONCLUSION

Heat and heatwave are associated with an increased risk of first-ever stroke morbidity among immigrants and those with comorbid hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes, with the effects primarily due to non-native individuals.

DATA ACCESS STATEMENT

The author(s) are not authorized to share the data.

Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie

MOTIVATION

The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes.

METHODS

Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method.

RESULTS

For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.

Nocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In recent decades, nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. The increasing prevalence of nocturnal heat exposure may pose a significant risk to cardiovascular health. This study investigated the association between nighttime heat exposure and stroke risk in the region of Augsburg, Germany, and examined its temporal variations over 15 years.

METHODS

Hourly meteorological parameters, including mean temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure, were acquired from a local meteorological station. A data set was obtained consisting of 11 037 clinical stroke cases diagnosed during warmer months (May to October) between the years 2006 and 2020. The average age of cases was 71.3 years. Among these cases, 642 were identified as haemorrhagic strokes, 7430 were classified as ischaemic strokes, and 2947 were transient ischaemic attacks. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the stroke risk associated with extreme nighttime heat, as measured by the hot night excess (HNE) index after controlling for the potential confounding effects of daily maximum temperature and other climatic variables. Subgroup analyses by age group, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity were performed to identify variations in susceptibility to nighttime heat.

RESULTS

Results suggested a significant increase in stroke risk on days with extreme nighttime heat (97.5% percentile of HNE) (odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.15) during the full study period. When comparing the results for 2013-20 with the results for 2006-12, there was a significant increase (P < .05) in HNE-related risk for all strokes and specifically for ischaemic strokes during the more recent period. Furthermore, older individuals, females, and patients with mild stroke symptoms exhibited a significantly increased vulnerability to nighttime heat.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found nocturnal heat exposure to be related to elevated stroke risk after controlling for maximum daytime temperature, with increasing susceptibility between 2006 and 2020. These results underscore the importance of considering nocturnal heat as a critical trigger of stroke events in a warming climate.

Low ambient temperature exposure increases the risk of ischemic stroke by promoting platelet activation

BACKGROUND

Accumulating epidemiological evidence suggests the association between low ambient temperature exposure and the risk of ischemic stroke, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

Given the crucial role of platelet activation and thrombosis in ischemic stroke, this study aims to investigate the effect of ambient temperature on platelet activation through multi-center clinical data in Tianjin as well as animal experiments.

METHODS

From 2018 to 2020, nearly 3000 ischemic stroke patients from three stroke centers in Tianjin were included in the analysis, among them the ADP induced platelet aggregation rate was available. Meteorological data from the same period had also been collected. After controlling for confounding factors, the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was used to evaluate the correlation between environmental temperature and platelet aggregation rate. In further animal experiments, platelet function assessments were conducted on mice from the cold exposure group and the normal temperature group, including platelet aggregation, spreading, and clot retraction. Additionally, tail bleeding and mesentery thrombosis were also tested to monitor hemostasis and thrombosis in vivo.

RESULT

A nonlinear "S" shaped relationship between outdoor temperature and platelet aggregation was found. Each 1 °C decrease of mean temperature was associated with an increase of 7.77 % (95 % CI: 2.06 % - 13.48 %) in platelet aggregation. The ambient temperature is not related to other platelet parameters. Subgroup analysis found that males, people aged ≥65 years, and hypertensive individuals are more susceptible to temperature changes. Furthermore, animal experiments demonstrated that the increased CIRBP levels and subsequent activation of p-AKT/p-ERK may be one of the reasons for cold exposure induced platelets activation.

CONCLUSION

Both clinical data and basic research support that low ambient temperature exposure has the potential to increase platelet activation. These results provide a basis for understanding the potential mechanism of temperature variations on the pathogenesis of cerebrovascular diseases.

Hourly Heat Exposure and Acute Ischemic Stroke

Importance

Previous studies have demonstrated the associations of daily high temperature with hospitalizations and mortality from ischemic stroke, but the hourly association of ambient heat and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset has been rarely examined.

Objectives

To evaluate the association between hourly high ambient temperature and the onset of AIS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using a nationwide registry that collects data from more than 200 stroke centers in China. Participants were adult patients with AIS who were hospitalized in the warm seasons between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Hourly temperature and single-hour temperature exposure lag up to 24 hours before the AIS onset (lag 0 hours to lag 24 hours).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was onset of AIS. Associations between hourly mean temperatures and AIS onset were analyzed using conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Stratification analyses were applied to examine potential association modifiers. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the results.

Results

A total of 82 455 patients with AIS (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.9] years; 52 267 males [63.4%]) were included in the final analysis. A monotonically increasing risk of AIS onset was associated with higher temperatures. The excess AIS risk occurred immediately at lag 0 hours and persisted for 10 hours. Compared with the reference temperature (12.1 °C), the cumulative odds ratio (OR) over lag 0 to 10 hours of AIS onset associated with extremely high temperature (33.3 °C) was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.65-2.13) nationwide. The exposure-response curve was steeper in the north than in the south (OR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.53-2.11] vs 1.57 [95% CI, 1.31-1.87]). The ORs were greater for males and patients with a history of dyslipidemia or atrial fibrillation, but the differences were not significant.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this study suggest that hourly heat exposure is associated with increased risk of AIS onset. This finding may benefit the formulation of public health strategies to reduce cerebrovascular risk associated with high ambient temperature under global warming.

A Long Way from Steubenville: Environmental Epidemiology in a Rapidly Changing World

This commentary focuses on research that has long been at the core of environmental epidemiology: studies of the health effects of air pollution. It highlights publications in the American Journal of Epidemiology going back more than 50 years that have contributed to the debate about the validity of this research and its meaning for public policy. Technological advances have greatly expanded the toolbox of environmental epidemiologists in terms of measuring and analyzing complex exposures in large populations. Yet, discussions about biases in estimating air pollution health effects have always been and remain intense. Epidemiologists have brought new methodologies and concepts to this research, alleviating some but not all concerns. Here, the focus is on seminal epidemiologic work that established valid links between air pollution exposures and health outcomes and generated data for environmental policies and prevention. With this commentary, I hope to inspire epidemiologists to address many more of the burning environmental health questions-wildfires included-with a similar scientific doggedness. The rapidly changing conditions of our planet are challenging us to innovate and offer solutions, albeit perhaps a little bit faster this time around.

The Impact of Weather and Mode of Transport on Outcomes of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke Undergoing Mechanical Thrombectomy

BACKGROUND

Efficient transfer to mechanical thrombectomy (MT)-capable centers is essential for patients with stroke. Weather may influence stroke risk, transportation, and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how weather affects stroke patient transfer and outcomes after MT.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data for patients with stroke transferred from spoke to our hub hospital to undergo MT between 2017 and 2021. We examined associations between weather, transportation, and patient outcomes.

RESULTS

We included 543 patients with a mean age of 71.7 years. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Score increased from 14 to 15 after transportation. The median modified Rankin Scale was 4 at discharge and 90 days, and 3 at the final follow-up (mean 91.7 days). Higher daily temperatures were associated with good outcome, whereas daily drizzle was associated with poor outcome. More patients were transferred by air when visibility was better, and by ground during heavier precipitation, higher humidity, rain, mist, and daily drizzle, fog, and thunder . Patient outcomes were not associated with transportation mode. Among the independent predictors of good outcome, none was a weather variable. Lower hourly relative humidity ( P = .003) and longer road distance ( P < .001) were independent predictors of using air transportation, among others.

CONCLUSION

During transportation, higher temperature was associated with good outcome, whereas daily drizzle was associated with poor outcome after MT. Although weather was associated with transportation mode, no differences in outcomes were found between transportation modes. Further studies are needed to modify transfer protocols, especially during cold and rainy days, and potentially improve outcomes.

Temperature and socioeconomic vulnerability: associations with cardiac event-induced posttraumatic stress symptoms

Background

Posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are common after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and predict increased morbidity and mortality. Climate change contributes to worse mental and cardiovascular health outcomes, thus, PTSS represent a potential mechanism linking climate change to adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Because people living in areas with lower socioeconomic status (SES) experience greater climate vulnerability, have worse cardiovascular health, and may be more susceptible to PTSS, any effect of temperature on PTSS could be amplified in this population.

Methods

Spatial regression models were estimated to test the association of temperature and temperature variability (within-day variability, directed change over time, and absolute change over time), census tract-level SES, and their interaction with PTSS 1 month post-hospital discharge in a longitudinal cohort study comprising 956 patients evaluated for ACS at an urban U.S. academic medical center between November 2013-May 2017. PTSS were self-reported in relation to the ACS event that brought the patient to the hospital. Census tract-level was computed as a composite score from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, with higher values indicating lower SES.

Results

No temperature or temperature variability metrics were associated with PTSS. Lower census tract-level SES was associated with greater PTSS at 1 month. There was a marginally significant interaction of SES with ACS status, such that we only observed evidence of an association among those with ACS.

Conclusion

Temperature exposures were not associated with acute CVD-induced PTSS, which could be a result of a small sample size, mismatched timescale, or lack of a true effect. Conversely, lower census tract-level SES was associated with developing worse PTSS 1 month after evaluation for an ACS. This association appeared stronger in individuals with a true ACS. Early interventions to prevent PTSS could promote better mental and CVD outcomes in this at-risk population.

Heatwave and mental health

Physical health has been associated with ambient temperature and heatwave. With the frequent occurrence of heatwave, the adaptive effects and mechanisms on mental health remain uncertain. On the basis of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we estimated the relationship between heatwaves and self-assessed mental health scores in the Chinese population aged 50 and above. This study has identified that with each additional heatwave event, mental health scores decreased by an average of 0.027 points, which is equivalent to 0.3% of the average level. Heat is more likely to affect groups with low education, no medical insurance, and living in rural areas. In mechanistic exploration, we found that stress emotion is a fully mediating effect. Heat led to reduced health activities and more frequent drinking, which may lead to lower psychological well-being. Moreover, good dietary preference is a regulator that can help mitigate the adverse effects of heat on mental health. This study corroborates the impact of heat on spiritual welfare, and demonstrates the mechanisms and channels of impact, which can help reduce global economic losses due to mental health problems.

Impact of air pollution on running performance

Air pollution exposures during training may impact race preformances. We aggregated data on 334 collegiate male track & field athletes from 46 universities across the United States over 2010-2014. Using distributed lag non-linear models, we analyzed the relationship between race time and PM2.5, ozone, and two versions of the Air Quality Index (AQI) exposures up to 21 days prior to the race. We observed a 12.8 (95% CI: 1.3, 24.2) second and 11.5 (95% CI: 0.8, 22.1) second increase in race times from 21 days of PM2.5 exposure (10.0 versus 5.0 μg/m3) and ozone exposure (54.9 versus 36.9 ppm), respectively. Exposure measured by the two-pollutant threshold (PM2.5 and ozone) AQI was not significantly associated with race time; however, the association for summed two-pollutant AQI (PM2.5 plus ozone) was similar to associations observed for the individual pollutants (12.4, 95% CI: 1.8, 23.0 s). Training and competing at elevated air pollution levels, even at exposures within AQI's good-to-moderate classifications, was associated with slower race times. This work provides an initial characterization of the effect of air pollution on running performance and a justification for why coaches should consider approaches to reduce air pollution exposures while training.