Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis

Residue Behaviors and Degradation Dynamics of Insecticides Commonly Applied to Agrocybe aegerita Mushrooms from Field to Product Processing and Corresponding Risk Assessments

Residual pesticides in Agrocybe aegerita mushroom have emerged as a significant concern and bring much uncertainty due to processing procedures. In this study, a modified QuEChERS sample preparation procedure and UPLC-MS/MS were used to analyze the residual levels of four commonly used pesticides in A. aegerita from field to product processing. The field results showed that dissipation of these targeted chemicals was consistent with the first-order kinetics, and the half-life time ranged from 20.4 h to 47.6 h. The terminal residues of the four pesticides at harvest time ranged from 9.81 to 4412.56 μg/kg in raw mushroom. The processing factors (PFs) of clothianidin, diflubenzuron, chlorbenzuron, and pyridaben ranged from 0.119 to 0.808 for the drying process and from 0.191 to 1 for the washing process. By integrating the data from the field trials, the PFs, and the consumption survey, the chronic dietary risks of the target chemicals via A. aegerita intake ranged from 2.41 × 10-5 to 5.69 × 10-2 for children and from 6.34 × 10-6 to 1.88 × 10-2 for adults, which are considerably below the threshold of 1, indicating no unacceptable risk to consumers in the Fujian province of China. This research offers foundational data for appropriate use and the maximum residue limit (MRL) establishment for these four insecticides in A. aegerita.

Assessment of long-term dietary cadmium exposure in children in Germany: Does consideration of data from total diet studies reduce uncertainties from food monitoring programmes?

Total diet studies (TDS) and food monitoring programmes are different approaches for collecting occurrence data on substances in food. This case study evaluated the practical applicability of TDS data (BfR MEAL Study) and monitoring data for the assessment of long-term cadmium exposure in children in Germany. Cadmium data from both programmes were combined with food consumption data from the KiESEL study. Uncertainties associated with both assessments were systematically described. Using monitoring data resulted in cadmium intakes approximately 3 times higher than the use of BfR MEAL Study data. Incomplete data and neglect of market shares and consumption weights were considered by conservative data adjustments to the monitoring data and mainly explain the higher estimates. Fewer data adjustments were necessary for BfR MEAL Study data, which covered almost the entire diet and considered consumer behaviour during sample collection and sample preparation. In sum, the use of the BfR MEAL Study data resulted in less uncertainty and more reliable exposure estimates for chronic assessments over the entire diet. However, description of variability and upper tails of substance distributions in food remain essential features of monitoring data. The integration of both programmes into a complementary system further improves food safety.

Assessment of Furan and Its Derivatives Intake with Home Prepared Meals and Characterization of Associated Risk for Polish Infants and Toddlers

Furan and its derivatives are found in various heat-treated foods. Furan is classified as a possible human carcinogen. The European Union authorities recommend collecting data on the occurrence of these compounds, estimating consumer exposure, and taking measures to protect human health based on a scientific risk assessment. The aim of this study was to estimate the exposure of infants and toddlers to furan and its methyl derivatives-2-methylfuran, 3-methylfuran, and ∑2,5-dimethylfuran/2-ethylfuran-present in home-prepared foods and to characterize the associated health risks. The compounds of interest were determined using the HS-GC/MS. The risk was characterized by the calculation of the margin of exposure (MoE). Levels of furan and its derivatives in analyzed samples were in the range of Collapse

Key Words

• exposure
• furan
• furan derivatives
• health risk characterization
• home-prepared meals
• infants
• toddlers

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MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• 1BTBW/2019, FT-1/2020 National Institute of Public Health NIH - National Research Institute

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Affiliation(s)

Maria Minorczyk Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)
Katarzyna Czaja Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)
Andrzej Starski Department of Food Safety, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (A.S.); (J.P.)
Wojciech Korcz Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)
Monika Liszewska Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)
Radosław Lewiński Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)
Mark Gregory Robson Department of Plant Biology, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA;
Jacek Postupolski Department of Food Safety, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (A.S.); (J.P.)
Paweł Struciński Department of Toxicology and Health Risk Assessment, National Institute of Public Health NIH—National Research Institute, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland; (M.M.); (K.C.); (W.K.); (M.L.); (R.L.)

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Comprehensive Investigation of Fluoroquinolone Residues in Apis mellifera and Apis cerana Honey and Potential Risks to Consumers: A Five-Year Study (2014-2018) in Zhejiang Province, China

As a group of antibiotics largely used in China's animal husbandry, fluoroquinolone (FQ) residues in honey may pose potential threats to human health. This study performed a five-year investigation on the occurrence of FQ residues in honey in 521 Apis mellifera and 160 Apis cerana honey samples collected from Zhejiang Province, China and compared FQ residue profiles in honey with a subgroup of various factors. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of exposure to FQ residues in honey were further conducted. Overall, four FQs were detected in 6.9% (47/681) of analyzed samples; banned norfloxacin with the highest level (7890 μg·kg-1) and detection frequency (4.9%) was the primary safety risk factor associated with honeybees raised in China. FQ detection frequency and concentration of rape honey was highest among four of the largest and most stable honeys (rape, acacia, chaste, and linden) in China. Processed honey from commercial sale channels had a significantly higher detection frequency of FQ residues than raw honey from apiaries. Deterministic assessment showed that the noncarcinogenic hazard quotient (HQ) value of the dietary intake of FQs by the local population was between 4.75 × 10-6 and 1.18 × 10-3, less than 1.0, indicating that FQ residues in honey posed a low risk for consumers. The order of the HQ value was ciprofloxacin > norfloxacin > enrofloxacin > ofloxacin. Probabilistic assessment showed that at P95, the HQ of FQs for the age groups of children, adolescents, adults, and older adults over 65 years ranged from 2.39 × 10-5 to 0.217, less than 1, and the exposure risk for adults was higher than for children and adolescents. Sensitivity analysis showed that FQ concentrations were the major contributors to health risks. Although a low risk was found, a strict hive management is needed for beekeepers regarding troubles of food safety, international trade, and human bacterial resistance.

Assessing transfer of aluminum during tea brewing and associated population health risks

Tea is consumed widely around the world owing to its refreshing taste and potential health benefits. However, drinking tea is considered a major route for dietary aluminum exposure in areas where tea consumption is relatively large. To assess the health risk associated with drinking tea, the contamination level of aluminum was determined in 81 tea samples. The transfer rate of aluminum during tea brewing was investigated. Then based on the site-specific exposure parameters such as consumption data and body weight for six different subpopulations in Fujian, the exposure risks were estimated using a probabilistic approach. Results demonstrate that the contents of aluminum in green tea, white tea, oolong tea, and black tea were significantly different according to the one-way ANOVA analysis (p < 0.05). The transfer rate of aluminum were 32.6%, 31.6%, 26.3%, and 14% for white tea, black tea, oolong tea, and green tea, respectively. With respect to the oral reference dose, the exposure of inhabitants in Fujian to aluminum through drinking tea is under control (even at the 99th percentile).

Collection of occurrence data in foods – The value of the BfR MEAL study in addition to the national monitoring for dietary exposure assessment

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The German National Monitoring and the BfR MEAL Study are systematically compared.

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Adding Total Diet Study data to Food Monitoring data enhances consumer safety.

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BfR MEAL Study substantially extends the food list for > 250 substances.

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National Monitoring is needed when variability or regulatory limits are in focus.

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BfR MEAL Study provides total dietary exposure data for representative consumer habits.

Two different data sets of occurrence data are available in Germany at present: the German National Food Monitoring and the BfR MEAL Study. To determine the suitability of each data set for exposure assessment and to develop concepts for a target-oriented selection and application of data, possibilities, limitations and scope of substance as well as food selection is quantitatively compared. The National Monitoring data provides comprehensive information on the variability of substance levels. This enables short- and long-term exposure assessment and consumer-loyal scenarios. The BfR MEAL Study supplements the monitoring data set with > 100 substances or by complementing the food spectrum for substances already included in the National Monitoring. The study design benefits especially the long-term dietary exposure assessment for the German population including the total diet. Using both programmes enables case-dependent selection of the appropriate dataset and in combination both sets can contribute to enhanced consumer safety.

Perchlorate contamination of tea leaves and a corresponding probabilistic dietary risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation

Perchlorate is known as a thyroid disrupter. Its contamination in various tea samples was monitored, and 286 samples belonging to four types of tea leaves were analysed. The detection rate of perchlorate in tea was 99.3%. The mean concentration in different tea types decreased in order from green tea, oolong tea, white tea to black tea. A probabilistic approach was performed to evaluate the dietary exposure of perchlorate for six different subpopulations. The daily intakes (EDIs) for consumers over the age of 41 were higher than that of other subpopulations. The hazard quotient for six groups was lower than 1 even at the extreme percentile (P99). It indicates that the risk of dietary exposure to perchlorate from tea consumption for Fujian people is acceptable without considering other foodstuffs. However, the high occurrence of perchlorate in tea samples suggested that the actual source of this contaminant should be further investigated.

Risk assessment approaches for evaluating cumulative exposures to multiple pesticide residues in agro-products using seasonal vegetable monitoring data from Hainan, China: a case study

Risks from combined exposure to multiple chemicals in food have prompted a growing concern for their effect on human health. Risk management of chemical mixtures should be based on developing and harmonizing methodologies to scientifically evaluate their cumulative adverse effects. In this study, a simplified tiered approach of cumulative exposure assessment is described along with a case study of vegetables in China's Hainan province during 2012-2014. This case study could be a reference for the Chinese National Risk Assessment Programs for vegetable and fruit products. In the proposed assessment approach, Tier 1 acts as a screening tier to categorize and evaluate chemicals under a conservative scenario, and it prioritizes the pesticides of most concern. Tier 2 refines the grouping of substances from Tier 1 and normalizes the toxic potency of the chemicals to sum the exposure of chemical mixtures in a given assessment group. Tier 3 applies the refined exposure model and the input parameter distribution to create probabilistic models using Monte Carlo simulation. This approach will be helpful in the cumulative exposure assessment where data on pesticide residues are sufficient, but the individual dietary consumption is inadequate.

Dietary intake of artificial food color additives containing food products by school-going children

Nutritional risk in children is associated with food safety. This is the first study to identify the food type consumed by 6–17-year-old school-going children in Saudi Arabia. Eight permitted artificial food color additives, including Tartrazine (E102), Sunset Yellow (E110), Carmoisine (E122), Allura Red (E129), Indigo Carmine (E132), Brilliant Blue (E133), Fast Green (E143), and Black PN (E151), and two non-permitted ones, Erythrosine (E127) and Red 2G (E128), were determined using 24-h dietary recall questionnaires. Artificial color additives in 839 food products were divided into nine categories, including biscuits, cakes, chocolates, chips, ice cream, juices and drinks, candy, jelly, and chewing gum, are determined using high performance liquid chromatography and diode array detector. The results indicated a high intake of juices and drinks, ice cream, and cakes, but low consumption of chewing gum among school-going children. Among the permitted artificial food color additives, Brilliant Blue (E133) (54.1%) and Tartrazine (E102) (42.3%) were the most commonly used. Sunset Yellow (E110) in one chocolate sample, Tartrazine (E102) and Sunset Yellow (E110) in one and two juice and drink samples, respectively, and Brilliant Blue (E133) in two candy samples exceeded the permitted level. Therefore, further investigations are needed to provide insights into the possible adverse health effects of high intake of these additives in artificial food coloring on the test population are warranted.

A chemical structure-based approach for estimating the added levels of flavourings to foods for the purpose of assessing consumer intake

Intake assessment and hazard profile of chemical substances are the two critical inputs in a safety assessment. Human intake assessment presents challenges that stem either from the absence of data or from numerous sources of variability and uncertainty, which have led regulators to adopt conservative approaches that inevitably overestimate intake. Refinements of intake assessments produce more realistic estimates and help prioritise areas of concern and better direct investment of resources. However, use levels (ULs), which represent the usual added amount of flavourings to food products, are the starting point for refined intake assessments, are data-intensive, and data availability is often a limitation. The work presented here was undertaken to investigate the use level patterns of substances used as flavourings in foods and to develop a systematic tool for data extrapolation based on chemical structure. The available dataset consists of use levels reported through eight industry surveys and hence are representative of industry uses rather than regulatory limits, which are higher by design and not realistic. A systematic statistical analysis was undertaken to determine whether the industry-reported UL data can be used to estimate use levels of flavouring substances belonging to the same chemical group for which such data are not available. Predictive modelling approaches were explored to evaluate relationships in the data and utilised additional variables relevant to technological considerations, such as volatility losses upon heat treatment, and Tanimoto index-based pair-wise structural similarity scores to determine whether more granular similarity information can reduce the within-group variability. The analyses indicated that the use levels of flavouring substances can reasonably be estimated based on the available data using chemical group classifications stratified by food category. Source of uncertainty and limitations are discussed.

Risk assessment and spatial analysis of deoxynivalenol exposure in Chinese population

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is one of the most commonly found mycotoxins across the world, and it mainly contaminates staple food crops. This study aims to evaluate the dietary exposure of DON and to provide a geographical profile of DON exposure in China. The concentrations of DON and its acetylated derivatives in 15,004 cereal samples (10,192 wheat flour, 1750 maize meal, 892 oat flakes, and 2170 polished rice) were collected from 30 provinces, autonomous regions, or municipalities across China during 2010-2017, through a national food safety risk surveillance system. The consumption data for cereals were obtained from China National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002, and 67,923 respondents from the same 30 regions were included in the analysis. Among all the cereals considered, the concentration was the highest in wheat flour, with the mean concentration of 250.8 μg/kg. Applying a worst-case scenario, some individuals were possibly at risk, but the probability of acute effects was low. The mean and median exposure for the entire population was 0.61 and 0.36 μg/kg bw/day, respectively, below the (PM) TDI, indicating an acceptable overall health risk in Chinese population. Wheat contributed to 86% of the total DON exposure. Significant discrepancy was observed between the exposure and the contamination of DON. The high-exposure cluster area was in northern China, whilst the most seriously contaminated regions were all located in the southeast, which formed a seriously contaminated area.

Mycotoxins in cereals and cereal-based products: Incidence and probabilistic dietary risk assessment for the Brazilian population

A probabilistic dietary risk assessment on mycotoxins was conducted using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment software, with consumption data from the 2008/2009 Brazilian Household Budget Survey for individuals who were at least 10 years old and occurrence data for 646 samples of rice, maize, wheat, and their products, collected in the Federal District and in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Processing factors were estimated and applied to concentration data. Chronic exposure was estimated for fumonisins (free and bound/hidden), deoxynivalenol (DON) (including the acetylated forms) and zearalenone (ZON) (including alfa-zearalenol) and acute exposure was estimated for DON. For the general population, the chronic exposure exceeded the safe exposure levels at the 95P for DON and at the 99P for fumonisins. Additionally, safe level exceedance occurred at the 97.5P for fumonisins and at the 95P for DON for teenagers, as well as at the 99P for fumonisins for women of child-bearing-age. No exceedances were found for chronic exposure to ZON and acute exposure to DON. Maize couscous contributed most of the total fumonisins (91%) and ZON intakes (~40%) and bread to total intake of DON (~30%). Further studies should be conducted with updated Brazilian consumption data, which should include information for individuals aged less than 10 years old.

Human dietary exposure assessment to newly expressed proteins in GM foods

EFSA carries out the risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) submitted under Regulation (EC) 1829/2003 and Regulation (EU) 503/2013. Dietary exposure is an essential element of the risk assessment on genetically modified (GM) foods. Dietary exposure estimations should cover average and high consumers across all the different age classes and special population groups and identify and consider particular consumer groups with expected higher exposure. This EFSA statement provides guidance on how human dietary exposure to newly expressed proteins in GM foods should be estimated using a deterministic model that makes use of the available information. Summary statistics of consumption of foods containing, consisting of and produced from crops relevant for the assessment of GMO applications are available in the EFSA website together with different factors to convert the reported consumption of processed foods into raw primary commodities. Guidance is also provided on how concentration data of newly expressed proteins, typically determined in raw primary commodities, should be used (materials to be analysed, growth stage, descriptive statistics to be used, etc.). An overview of the different uncertainties linked to the dietary exposure estimations is provided, informing on the strengths and limitations of the assessment. The document also describes the information applicants need to provide on human dietary exposure to allow EFSA doing an appropriate evaluation of the assessment provided as part of the application dossiers.

First study on trichothecene and zearalenone exposure of the Romanian population through wheat-based products consumption

In this study, a dietary exposure assessment of mycotoxins was conducted for the Romanian population using the contamination data of a various categories of wheat-based products for direct human consumption. Wheat-based foods (n = 181) commercialized in Romania, including flour, bread, biscuits, breakfast cereals and pasta, were evaluated by GC-QqQ-MS/MS for the occurrence of deoxynivalenol (DON), 3-acetyldeoxynivalenol (3AcDON), 15-acetyldeoxynivalenol (15AcDON), fusarenon-X, nivalenol, HT-2 and T-2 toxins, diacetoxyscirpenol, neosolaniol and zearalenone (ZEA). DON and 15AcDON were detected in 63 and 5% of all the analyzed samples, whereas 13-AcDON, HT-2, T-2, NIV and ZEA were not detected. Exposure of Romanian adult population was assessed, the EDIs for the sum of DON+3AcDON+15AcDON were 669 ng kg^-1 bw day^-1 at low-bound estimation, and 690 ng kg^-1 bw day^-1 at upper-bound estimation, being lower than the TDI set (1000 ng kg^-1 bw day^-1).

Investigation of the potential for a simplified exposure tool in medical nutrition (SETIM) to minimise exposures to sweeteners in young patients aged 1-3 years with PKU and CMPA

Children with phenylketonuria (PKU) and severe cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) consume prescribed, specially formulated, foods for special medical purposes (FSMPs) in addition to having restricted intake of normal foods. These vulnerable patients are exposed to artificial sweeteners from the consumption of a combination of both free and prescribed foods. Young patients with PKU and CMPA aged from 1 to 3 years have a higher risk of exceeding the acceptable daily intake (ADI) for sweeteners than age-matched healthy children. A probabilistic modelling approach has been adapted successfully to assess the exposure of young patients with PKU and CMPA to low-calorie sweeteners. To assist professionals in the screening and formulation of foods containing food additives for such patients, a simplified exposure method/tool has been developed. The tool is intended to ensure that total dietary exposure can be considered. The simplified tool is not intended to replace the probabilistic model but may be used as a screening tool to determine if further investigation on exposure is warranted. The aim of this study was to develop and validate this simplified exposure tool to support those currently used by healthcare professionals (HCPs) using data available from the probabilistic modelling of exposure in young children with PKU and CMPA. The probabilistic model does not allow for swift screening of exposure scenarios nor is the present EFSA Food Additive Intake Assessment Model (FAIM) fully suitable for application to medical foods. The simplified exposure tool in medical nutrition (SETIM) reported here is both reliable and consistent and provides additive usage levels which minimise regular exposure above the ADI in patients. In addition to the usefulness of SETIM for the medical nutrition industry, the tool has the potential to enhance the practice of evidence-based medical nutrition by official risk assessment bodies, registration authorities and healthcare professionals.

Low-/No-Calorie Sweeteners: A Review of Global Intakes

The current review examined published data on the intake of all major low-/no-calorie sweeteners-aspartame, acesulfame-K, saccharin, sucralose, cyclamate, thaumatin and steviol glycosides-globally over the last decade. The most detailed and complex exposure assessments were conducted in Europe, following a standardized approach. Japan and Korea similarly had up-to-date and regular intake data available. The data for other Asian countries, Latin America, Australia/New Zealand and global estimates, evaluated by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), while available, were shown to be more limited in terms of design. Overall, the studies conducted since 2008 raised no concerns with respect to exceedance of individual sweetener acceptable daily intake (ADIs) among the general population globally. The data identified do not suggest a shift in exposure over time, with several studies indicating a reduction in intake. However, some data suggest there may have been an increase in the numbers of consumers of low-/no-calorie-sweetened products. Future research should consider a more standardized approach to allow the monitoring of potential changes in exposure based upon events such as sugar reduction recommendations, to ensure there is no shift in intake, particularly for high-risk individuals, including diabetics and children with specific dietary requirements, and to ensure risk management decisions are based on quality intake analyses.

Variation in iodine food composition data has a major impact on estimates of iodine intake in young children

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The reliability of an estimate of iodine intake is largely dependent on the quality of the food composition data. We aimed to assess the impact of variations in food composition data for iodine and season on the estimates of iodine intake in young children.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Cross-sectional dietary intake study of Irish 2-year-olds participating in the Cork BASELINE Birth Cohort Study (n=468; 30% of the cohort at the 2-year follow-up) were used to assess the impact of variation in iodine food composition data on estimates of iodine intake, dietary adequacy and risk of exceeding the tolerable upper intake level (UL).

RESULTS

Mean (SD) iodine intakes calculated using UK (147 (71)) and Irish (177 (93)) food composition data were significantly different (P < 0.001) (mean difference (95% confidence interval) = 30 (26-33) µg/day) and largely adequate (7-14% below the estimated average requirement). Intakes at the 95th percentile were 138% and 173% of the UL using UK and Irish food composition data, respectively, of which milk accounted for 106% and 150% of the UL. This translated into 22% and 35% of toddlers exceeding the UL, using UK and Irish composition data, respectively. The mean (SD) daily intake of cow's milk among the 91% of consumers was 309 (208) ml. Intakes of cow's milk at the 75th and 95th percentiles were 452 and 706 ml, respectively. Using Irish composition data for iodine in cows' milk, a daily intake of 450 ml could result in a toddler exceeding the UL from milk alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in food composition has a large impact on assessments of iodine intake, particularly among young children for whom milk contributes a large proportion of their daily nutrient intake. Although this is unlikely to result in long-term adverse effects, our study highlights the need for development of valid biomarkers of individual iodine status.

APROBA-Plus: A probabilistic tool to evaluate and express uncertainty in hazard characterization and exposure assessment of substances

To facilitate the application of probabilistic risk assessment, the WHO released the APROBA tool. This tool applies lognormal uncertainty distributions to the different aspects of the hazard characterization, resulting in a probabilistic health-based guidance value. The current paper describes an extension, APROBA-Plus, which combines the output from the probabilistic hazard characterization with the probabilistic exposure to rapidly characterize risk and its uncertainty. The uncertainty in exposure is graphically compared with the uncertainty in the target human dose, i.e. the dose that complies with the specified protection goals. APROBA-Plus is applied to several case studies, resulting in distinct outcomes and illustrating that APROBA-Plus could serve as a standard extension of routine risk assessments. By visualizing the uncertainties, APROBA-Plus provides a more transparent and informative outcome than the more usual deterministic approaches, so that risk managers can make better informed decisions. For example, APROBA-Plus can help in deciding whether risk-reducing measures are warranted or that a refined risk assessment would first be needed. If the latter, the tool can be used to prioritize possible refinements. APROBA-Plus may also be used to rank substances into different risk categories, based on potential health risks without being compromised by different levels of conservatism that may be associated with point estimates of risk.

Uncertainty of exposure assessment of consumers to pesticide residues derived from food consumed

The sources of quantitative and qualitative uncertainties of the exposure of a consumer to a pesticide residue are identified. The contribution of quantifiable uncertainties of input parameters of deterministic model to the combined uncertainty of the estimated exposure is shown with detailed calculation using the pesticide residue content of food consumed during two days. The daily intakes of bifenthrin residues calculated for the 60 kg bodyweight of the reporting person are 0.00257 mg/kgbw and 0.00281 mg/kgbw for day 1 and day 2, respectively with 27-28% combined uncertainty. The major contributors were fruits and whole meal bread. The contribution of the individual steps to the combined uncertainty depends on the particular food item. In general, the variability of recipes, estimation of the mass of consumed food, sampling, processing of raw commodities and analysis of pesticide residues influenced most, in decreasing order, the combined uncertainty of the estimated daily exposure.

Risk of Exposure to Multiple Mycotoxins from Maize-Based Complementary Foods in Tanzania

This study estimated exposure to multiple mycotoxins in 249 infants aged between 6 and 12 months in three agro-ecological zones of Tanzania. Maize-based complementary food intakes were estimated using two 24 h dietary recalls. Using @Risk software, probabilistic exposure assessment was conducted by modeling maize intake data (kg/kg body weight/day) with previously determined multiple mycotoxin (except for ochratoxin A (OTA) and zearalenone (ZEA), present in only a few samples) contamination data (μg/kg) in maize. Maize intakes ranged from 0.13 to 185 g/child/day (average = 59 ± 36 g/child/day). The estimated mean exposures were higher for aflatoxins (6-fold), fumonisins (3-fold), and deoxynivalenol (2-fold) than health-based guidance values of 0.017 ng/kg body weight/day, 2 μg/kg body weight/day, and 1 μg/kg body weight/day, respectively. The population at risk of exposures above the limits of health concern ranged from 12% for HT-2 toxin through 35% for deoxynivalenol to 100% for aflatoxins. The exposure varied among the agro-ecological zones. Strategies targeting multiple mycotoxins in maize are urgently needed to minimize exposures in Tanzania.

Longitudinal modelling of the exposure of young UK patients with PKU to acesulfame K and sucralose

Artificial sweeteners are used in protein substitutes intended for the dietary management of inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria, PKU) to improve the variety of medical foods available to patients and ensure dietary adherence to the prescribed course of dietary management. These patients can be exposed to artificial sweeteners from the combination of free and prescribed foods. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes (ADI) for additives than adults, due to higher food intakes per kg body weight. Young patients with PKU aged 1-3 years can be exposed to higher levels of artificial sweeteners from these dual sources than normal healthy children and are at a higher risk of exceeding the ADI. Standard intake assessment methods are not adequate to assess the additive exposure of young patients with PKU. The aim of this study was to estimate the combination effect on the intake of artificial sweeteners and the impact of the introduction of new provisions for an artificial sweetener (sucralose, E955) on exposure of PKU patients using a validated probabilistic model. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in the United Kingdom from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS, 1992-2012). Specially formulated protein substitutes as foods for special medical purposes (FSMPs) were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion of these protein substitutes is based on recommendations to ensure adequate protein intake in these patients. Exposure assessment results indicated the availability of sucralose for use in FSMPs for PKU leads to changes in intakes in young patients. These data further support the viability of probabilistic modelling as a means to estimate food additive exposure in patients consuming medical nutrition products.

Assessing and reporting uncertainties in dietary exposure analysis - Part II: Application of the uncertainty template to a practical example of exposure assessment

A previous publication described methods for assessing and reporting uncertainty in dietary exposure assessments. This follow-up publication uses a case study to develop proposals for representing and communicating uncertainty to risk managers. The food ingredient aspartame is used as the case study in a simple deterministic model (the EFSA FAIM template) and with more sophisticated probabilistic exposure assessment software (FACET). Parameter and model uncertainties are identified for each modelling approach and tabulated. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty is then evaluated using a semi-quantitative scale and the results expressed using two different forms of graphical summary. The value of this approach in expressing uncertainties in a manner that is relevant to the exposure assessment and useful to risk managers is then discussed. It was observed that the majority of uncertainties are often associated with data sources rather than the model itself. However, differences in modelling methods can have the greatest impact on uncertainties overall, particularly when the underlying data are the same. It was concluded that improved methods for communicating uncertainties for risk management is the research area where the greatest amount of effort is suggested to be placed in future.

Acrylamide in commercial foods and intake by infants in Estonia

Acrylamide is formed when certain foods with low moisture are prepared at above 120 ºC, especially those foods containing asparagine and reducing sugars such as glucose and fructose. Acrylamide is a probable carcinogen, and from animal evidence the margins of exposure indicate a concern for neoplastic effects. On a body weight basis infants´ acrylamide intakes are often higher than those of adults. The aim of the study was to determine acrylamide levels in different commercially-available foods and to assess dietary acrylamide intakes by infants. The acrylamide content in samples ranged widely, from <LOD to 3,300 µg kg-1 depending on the product category, and the food product within the category. Excluding coffee substitutes, the highest mean acrylamide values were found for potato crisps and snacks. Among baby foods, the highest mean level of acrylamide was found in vegetable-based non-cereal foods (65 µg kg-1), followed by processed cereal-based infant foods (42 µg kg-1). The indicative acrylamide values were most frequently exceeded for vegetable-based baby foods. The mean acrylamide content in baby foods ranged from <30 to 65 µg kg-1. Among consumers of acrylamide-containing baby food, the MOE values ranged between 185 and 620 for neoplastic effects, and between 467 and 1,569 for non-neoplastic effects. These MOE values indicate the need to reduce acrylamide exposure among infants in Estonia.

Black Tea Source, Production, and Consumption: Assessment of Health Risks of Fluoride Intake in New Zealand

In countries with fluoridation of public water, it is imperative to determine other dietary sources of fluoride intake to reduce the public health risk of chronic exposure. New Zealand has one of the highest per capita consumption rates of black tea internationally and is one of the few countries to artificially fluoridate public water; yet no information is available to consumers on the fluoride levels in tea products. In this study, we determined the contribution of black tea as a source of dietary fluoride intake by measuring the fluoride content in 18 brands of commercially available products in New Zealand. Fluoride concentrations were measured by potentiometric method with a fluoride ion-selective electrode and the contribution of black tea to Adequate Intake (AI) and Tolerable Upper Intake Level (UL) was calculated for a range of consumption scenarios. We examined factors that influence the fluoride content in manufactured tea and tea infusions, as well as temporal changes in fluoride exposure from black tea. We review the international evidence regarding chronic fluoride intake and its association with chronic pain, arthritic disease, and musculoskeletal disorders and provide insights into possible association between fluoride intake and the high prevalence of these disorders in New Zealand.

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment.

Probabilistic modelling to assess exposure to three artificial sweeteners of young Irish patients aged 1-3 years with PKU and CMPA

The choice of suitable normal foods is limited for individuals with particular medical conditions, e.g., inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria - PKU) or severe cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Patients may have dietary restrictions and exclusive or partial replacement of specific food groups with specially formulated products to meet particular nutrition requirements. Artificial sweeteners are used to improve the appearance and palatability of such food products to avoid food refusal and ensure dietary adherence. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes for additives than adults due to higher food intakes kg^-1 body weight. The Budget Method and EFSA's Food Additives Intake Model (FAIM) are not equipped to assess partial dietary replacement with special formulations as they are built on data from dietary surveys of consumers without special medical requirements impacting the diet. The aim of this study was to explore dietary exposure modelling as a means of estimating the intake of artificial sweeteners by young PKU and CMPA patients aged 1-3 years. An adapted validated probabilistic model (FACET) was used to assess patients' exposure to artificial sweeteners. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in Ireland from the National Preschool and Nutrition Survey (NPNS, 2010-11). Specially formulated foods for special medical purposes were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion was based on recommendations for adequate protein intake and dietary adherence data. Exposure assessment results indicated that young children with PKU and CMPA have higher relative average intakes of artificial sweeteners than healthy young children. The reliability and robustness of the model in the estimation of patient additive exposures was further investigated and provides the first exposure estimates for these special populations.

Dietary exposure to pesticide residues from foods of plant origin and drinks in Lebanon

This study assesses the dietary exposure of Lebanese adults to 47 pesticide residues from both foods of plant origin and drinks. The study was conducted using the Total Diet Study protocol in two different areas of Lebanon: Greater Beirut (urban) and Keserwan (semi-rural). A total of 1860 individual foods were collected, prepared, and cooked prior to analysis. Composite samples of similar foods were analyzed, following the QuEChERS Multiresidue method. Eighteen residues were detected/quantified on at least one composite sample, with 66.7 % of the results being quantifiable and 33.3 % detectable. Quantifiable levels ranged between 10.3 and 208 μg/kg. For the composite samples where residues were detected, 55 % had one residue, while 45 % had 2-4 residues. The most frequently detected/quantified pesticide residues included Chlorpyrifos, Procymidone, Primiphos methyl, Dimethoate, and Dieldrin. The dietary exposure assessment was conducted using the deterministic approach with two scenarios: (1) the lower bound (LB) approach and (2) the upper bound (UB) approach. Using the LB approach, mean estimated daily exposures were far below the acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) for all investigated residues. Using the UB approach, which tends to overestimate exposure, mean estimated daily exposures were below the ADIs for all residues except for Dieldrin (semi-rural: 128.7 % ADI; urban: 100.7 % ADI). Estimates of mean exposure to Diazinon reached 50.3 % of ADI in the urban diet and 61.9 % in the semi-rural diet. Findings of this study identify specific pesticide residues as monitoring priorities for which more comprehensive and sensitive analyses are needed in order to refine exposure assessment.