Geographical variations in mortality and morbidity from road traffic accidents in England and Wales

A study of the impact of traffic investment on traffic fatalities in China, 2004-2020

PURPOSE

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) have been one of the most serious public health problems in China. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which traffic investment affects traffic fatalities in China as well as regional differences.

METHODS

The study analyzed the correlation between traffic investment and traffic fatalities, incorporating additional factors such as economic conditions, road infrastructure, population density, and lighting. The selected variables included the number of traffic fatalities, traffic investment, urban per capita road area, urban road length, road mileage, urban road lighting, population size, and per capita gross domestic product. Relevant data between 2004 and 2020 were collected for an analysis using a fixed effect regression model. A p < 0.05 is considered statistically significant. To reduce the heterogeneity caused by regional differences, the provinces were divided into 6 groups according to administrative districts, and the clustering standard error analysis was carried out.

RESULTS

Overall, there has been a significant improvement in road safety in China from 2004 to 2020, but some regions show an increase in traffic fatalities. The model reveals that traffic investment is significantly and positively correlated with the number of traffic fatalities. Holding all other factors constant, each 10,000 yuan increase in transport investment was associated with an average increase of 0.22 road traffic fatalities. In the analysis of regional differences, there was a significant positive correlation between traffic investment and traffic fatalities in the Northwest region and an increase of 10,000 yuan leads to an increase of 0.47. There was a significant negative correlation between road mileage, urban road lighting system, and population and traffic fatalities. For example, holding other factors constant, a 10,000 km reduction in road length would increase the number of traffic deaths by 45.56. The model results of urban per capita road area, urban road length, per capita gross domestic product, and the explained variables showed that p > 0.100, which was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, traffic investments are essential for governments to develop measures to enhance road safety and reduce the risk of road fatalities. Adjusting traffic road investment and other covariates is conducive to improving traffic safety and reducing the risk of road fatalities. The road safety situation in different regions of China varies greatly. Local governments should consider the actual conditions to provide better road safety configuration policies.

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

BACKGROUND

Child pedestrian injury is a public health and health equality challenge worldwide, including in high-income countries. However, child pedestrian safety is less-understood, especially over long time spans. The intent of this study is to understand factors affecting child pedestrian safety in England over the period 2011-2020.

METHODS

We conducted an area-level study using a Bayesian space-time interaction model to understand the association between the number of road crashes involving child pedestrians in English Local Authorities and a host of socio-economic, transport-related and built-environment variables. We investigated spatio-temporal trends in child pedestrian safety in England over the study period and identified high-crash local authorities.

RESULTS

We found that child pedestrian crash frequencies increase as child population, unemployment-related claimants, road density, and the number of schools increase. Nevertheless, as the number of licensed vehicles per capita and zonal-level walking/cycling increase, child pedestrian safety increases. Generally, child pedestrian safety has improved in England since 2011. However, the socio-economic inequality gap in child pedestrian safety has not narrowed down. In addition, we found that after adjusting for the effect of covariates, the rate of decline in crashes varies between local authorities. The presence of localised risk factors/mitigation measures contributes to variation in the spatio-temporal patterns of child pedestrian safety.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, southern England has experienced more improvement in child pedestrian safety over the last decade than the northern regions. Our study revealed socio-economic inequality in child pedestrian safety in England. To better inform safety and public health policy, our findings support the importance of a targeted system approach, considering the identification of high-crash areas while keeping track of how child pedestrian safety evolves over time.

The Use of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions for Province-Wide Road Safety Management

Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) play a key role in identifying hotspots. Most SPFs were built at the micro-level, such as for road intersections or segments. On the other hand, in case of regional transportation planning, it may be useful to estimate SPFs at the macro-level (e.g., counties, cities, or towns) to determine ad hoc intervention prioritizations. Hence, the final aim of this study is to develop a predictive framework, supported by macro-level SPFs, to estimate crash frequencies, and consequently possible priority areas for interventions. At a province-wide level. The applicability of macro-level SPFs is investigated and tested thanks to the database retrieved in the context of a province-wide Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (Bari, Italy). Starting from this database, the macro-areas of analysis were carved out by clustering cities and towns into census macro-zones, highlighting the potential need for safety interventions, according to different safety performance indicators (fatal + injury, fatal, pedestrian and bicycle crashes) and using basic predictors divided into geographic variables and road network-related factors. Safety performance indicators were differentiated into rural and urban, thus obtaining a set of 4 × 2 dependent variables. Then they were linked to the dependent variables by means of Negative Binomial (NB) count data models. The results show different trends for the urban and rural contexts. In the urban environment, where crashes are more frequent but less severe according to the available dataset, the increase in both population and area width leads to increasing crashes, while the increase in both road length and mean elevation are generally related to a decrease in crash occurrence. In the rural environment, the increase in population density, which was not considered in the urban context, strongly influences crash occurrence, especially leading to an increase in pedestrian and bicyclist fatal + injury crashes. The increase in the rural network length (excluding freeways) is generally related to a greater number of crashes as well. The application of this framework aims to reveal useful implications for planners and administrators who must select areas of intervention for safety purposes. Two examples of practical applications of this framework, related to safety-based infrastructural planning, are provided in this study.

Analysis of the regional distribution of road traffic mortality and associated factors in Japan

BACKGROUND

Regional differences in road traffic (RT) mortality among municipalities have not been revealed in Japan. Further, the association between RT mortality and regional socioeconomic characteristics has not been investigated. We analyzed geographic differences in RT mortality and its associated factors using the Vital Statistics in Japan.

METHODS

We used data on RT mortality by sex and municipality in Japan from 2013 to 2017. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of RT for each municipality by sex using an Empirical Bayes method. The SMRs were mapped onto a map of Japan to show the geographic differences. In addition, an ecological study investigated the municipal characteristics associated with the SMR using demographic socioeconomic, medical, weather, and vehicular characteristics as explanatory variables. The ecological study used a spatial statistical model.

RESULTS

The mapping revealed that the number of municipalities with a high SMR of RT (SMR > 2) was larger in men than in women. In addition, SMRs of capital areas (Kanagawa and Tokyo prefectures) tended to be low in men and women. The regression analysis revealed that population density was negatively associated with the SMR in men and women, and the degree of the association was the largest among explanatory variables. In contrast, there was a positive association between the proportion of non-Japanese persons and SMR. The proportions of lower educational level (elementary school or junior high school graduates), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries workers, service workers, and blue-collar workers were positively associated with the SMR in men. The proportion of unemployed persons was negatively associated with the SMR in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic characteristics are associated with geographic differences in RT mortality particularly in men. The results suggested preventive measures targeted at men of low socioeconomic status and non-Japanese persons are needed to decrease RT mortality further.

Identification of Road Traffic Injury Risk Prone Area Using Environmental Factors by Machine Learning Classification in Nonthaburi, Thailand

Road traffic injuries are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and currently rank ninth globally among the leading causes of disease burden regarding disability-adjusted life years lost. Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani are parts of the greater Bangkok metropolitan area, and the road traffic injury rate is very high in these areas. This study aimed to identify the environmental factors affecting road traffic injury risk prone areas and classify road traffic injuries from an environmental factor dataset using machine learning algorithms. Road traffic injury risk prone areas were set as the dependent variables for the analysis, with other factors that influence road traffic injury risk prone areas being set as independent variables. A total of 20 environmental factors were selected from the spatial datasets. Then, machine learning algorithms were applied using a grid search. The first experiment from 2017 in Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani was used for training the model, and then, 2018 data from Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani were used for validation. The second experiment used 2018 Nonthaburi data for the training, and 2018 Pathum Thani data were used for the validation. The important factors were grocery stores, convenience stores, electronics stores, drugstores, schools, gas stations, restaurants, supermarkets, and road geometrics, with length being the most critical factor that influenced the road traffic injury risk prone model. The first and second experiments in a random forest model provided the best model environmental factors affecting road traffic injury risk prone areas, and machine learning can classify such road traffic injuries.

Epidemiology of road traffic crashes in Ilam Province, Iran, 2009-2013

Objective

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are major public health challenges of world health systems, and the main leading cause of death in children and young adults aged 5 to 29 years. This study aimed to assess the epidemiology of RTCs in Ilam, Iran.

Results

The total mortality rate due to RTCs has been increasing every year. There was a statistically significant relationship between age/sex and death or injury from RTCs in pedestrians, drivers, and passengers (p < 0.05). There was a significant relationship between the part of body trauma and RTCs in pedestrians (p < 0.001). Furthermore, a significant relationship was found between the type of vehicle and using seat belt with RTCs in drivers and passengers (p = 0.000).

Environmental Related Risk Factors to Road Traffic Accidents in Ilam, Iran

Introduction:

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the most serious health issue in the world and the main cause of death after the first year of birth. Environmental factors are among the most important and effective aspects of RTIs occurrences and their human consequences.

Aim:

This study aimed to identify the environmental factors associated with road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Ilam province.

Methods:

All crash data in Ilam province in 2012 were investigated. RTI’s data was collected using COM 114 form which included some human, environmental and vehicle related factors. Through Chi-Square test and logistic regression model, the association between environmental factors and RTIs was examined. For all statistical analyses we used the package Stata 13.1.

Results:

A total of 2314 traffic accidents were investigated. The highest 1659 (72.3%) and lowest 19 (0.83%) frequency of RTAs occurred during day and sunrise respectively. The majority of RTAs took place in July and September. The maximum number of RTAs was when the day was clear (91.7%) 2103 and the minimum when it was cloudy (3.5%) 81. A significant relationship was found between fatal RTAs and factors such as; the sort of the road, the hindered visibility, the location of the accident, the accidents’ place, the climate, and lighting of the day (P<0.05). The adjusted chance of traffic accidents causing death or injuries in main streets was 9.7 times more than in highways; in sidetracks it was 3.54 times more. And when it was cloudy, the chance was 2.60 times more than when was clear (P<0.05).

Conclusion:

Regarding the standards of road construction, development of the roads, and educating drivers how to adjust their driving behavior to the environment and road conditions could have a great role in decreasing RTAs causing death or injury.

Disparities in mortality among 25-44-year-olds in England: a longitudinal, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Since the mid-1990s, excess mortality has increased markedly for adults aged 25-44 years in the north compared with the south of England. We examined the underlying causes of this excess mortality and the contribution of socioeconomic deprivation.

METHODS

Mortality data from the Office of National Statistics for adults aged 25-44 years were aggregated and compared between England's five most northern versus five most southern government office regions between Jan 1, 1981, and Dec 31, 2016. Poisson regression models, adjusted for age and sex, were used to quantify excess mortality in the north compared with the south by underlying cause of death (accidents, alcohol related, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, drug related, suicide, cancer, and other causes). The role of socioeconomic deprivation, as measured by the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation, in explaining the excess and regional variability was also explored.

FINDINGS

A mortality divide between the north and south appeared in the mid-1990s and rapidly expanded thereafter for deaths attributed to accidents, alcohol misuse, and drug misuse. In the 2014-16 period, the northern excess was incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·47 (95% CI 1·39-1·54) for cardiovascular reasons, 2·09 (1·94-2·25) for alcohol misuse, and 1·60 (1·51-1·70) for drug misuse, across both men and women aged 25-44 years. National mortality rates for cardiovascular deaths declined over the study period but a longstanding gap between north and south persisted (from 33·3 [95% CI 31·8-34·8] in 1981 to 15·0 [14·0-15·9] in 2016 in the north vs from 23·5 [22·3-24·8] to 9·9 [9·2-10·5] in the south). Between 2014 and 2016, estimated excess numbers of death in the north versus the south for those aged 25-44 years were 1881 (95% CI 726-2627) for women and 3530 (2216-4511) for men. Socioeconomic deprivation explained up to two-thirds of the excess mortality in the north (IRR for northern effect reduced from 1·15 [95% CI 1·14-1·15; unadjusted] to 1·05 [1·04-1·05; adjusted for Index of Multiple Deprivation]). By 2016, in addition to the persistent north-south gap, mortality rates in London were lower than in all other regions, with IRRs ranging from IRR 1·13 (95% CI 1·12-1·15) for the East England to 1·22 (1·20-1·24) for the North East, even after adjusting for deprivation.

INTERPRETATION

Sharp relative rises in deaths from cardiovascular reasons, alcohol misuse and drug misuse in the north compared with the south seem to have created new health divisions between England's regions. This gap might be due to exacerbation of existing social and health inequalities that have been experienced for many years. These divisions might suggest increasing psychological distress, despair, and risk taking among young and middle-aged adults, particularly outside of London.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust.

Spatial-temporal cluster analysis of mortality from road traffic injuries using geographic information systems in West of Iran during 2009-2014

INTRODUCTION

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are considered as one of the most important health problems endangering people's life. The examination of the geographical distribution of RTIs could help policymakers in better planning to reduce RTIs. This study, therefore, aimed to determine the spatial-temporal clustering of mortality from RTIs in West of Iran.

METHODS

Deaths from RTIs, registered in Forensic Medicine Organization of Kermanshah province over a period of six years (2009-2014), were used. Using negative binomial regression, the mortality trend was investigated. In order to investigate the spatial distribution of RTIs, we used ArcGIS. (Version 10.3).

RESULTS

The median age of the 3231 people died in RTIs was 37 (IQR = 31) year, 78.4% were male. The 6-year average mortality rate from RTIs was 27.8/100,000 deaths, and the average rate had a declining trend. The dispersion of RTIs showed that most deaths occurred in Kermanshah, Islamabad, Bisotun, and Harsin road axes, respectively. The mean center of all deaths from RTIs occurred in Kermanshah province, the central area of Kermanshah district. The spatial trend of such deaths has moved to the northeast-southwest, and such deaths were geographically centralized. Results of Moran's I with respect to cluster analysis also indicated positive spatial autocorrelations.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that the mortality rate from RTIs, despite the decline in recent years, is still high when compared with other countries. The clustering of accidents raises the concern that road infrastructure in certain locations may also be a factor. Regarding the results related to the temporal analysis, it is suggested that the enforcement of traffic rules be stricter at rush hours.

Correlates of fatality risk of vulnerable road users in Delhi

Pedestrians, cyclists, and users of motorised two-wheelers account for more than 85% of all the road fatality victims in Delhi. The three categories are often referred to as vulnerable road users (VRUs). Using Bayesian hierarchical approach with a Poisson-lognormal regression model, we present spatial analysis of road fatalities of VRUs with wards as areal units. The model accounts for spatially uncorrelated as well as correlated error. The explanatory variables include demographic factors, traffic characteristics, as well as built environment features. We found that fatality risk has a negative association with socio-economic status (literacy rate), population density, and number of roundabouts, and has a positive association with percentage of population as workers, number of bus stops, number of flyovers (grade separators), and vehicle kilometers travelled. The negative effect of roundabouts, though statistically insignificant, is in accordance with their speed calming effects for which they have been used to replace signalised junctions in various parts of the world. Fatality risk is 80% higher at the density of 50 persons per hectare (pph) than at overall city-wide density of 250 pph. The presence of a flyover increases the relative risk by 15% compared to no flyover. Future studies should investigate the causal mechanism through which denser neighborhoods become safer. Given the risk posed by flyovers, their use as congestion mitigation measure should be discontinued within urban areas.

Effect of a new motorway on social-spatial patterning of road traffic accidents: A retrospective longitudinal natural experimental study

Background

The World Health Organisation reports that road traffic accidents (accidents) could become the seventh leading cause of death globally by 2030. Accidents often occur in spatial clusters and, generally, there are more accidents in less advantaged areas. Infrastructure changes, such as new roads, can affect the locations and magnitude of accident clusters but evidence of impact is lacking. A new 5-mile motorway extension was opened in 2011 in Glasgow, Scotland. Previous research found no impact on the number of accidents but did not consider their spatial location or socio-economic setting. We evaluated impacts on these, both locally and city-wide.

Methods

We used STATS19 data covering the period 2008 to 2014 and describing the location and details of all reported accidents involving a personal injury. Poisson-based continuous scan statistics were used to detect spatial clusters of accidents and any change in these over time. Change in the socio-economic distribution of accident cluster locations during the study period was also assessed.

Results

In each year accidents were strongly clustered, with statistically significant clusters more likely to occur in socio-economically deprived areas. There was no significant shift in the magnitude or location of accident clusters during motorway construction or following opening, either locally or city-wide. There was also no impact on the socio-economic patterning of accident cluster locations.

Conclusions

Although urban infrastructure changes occur constantly, all around the world, this is the first study to evaluate the impact of such changes on road accident clusters. Despite expectations to the contrary from both proponents and opponents of the M74 extension, we found no beneficial or adverse change in the socio-spatial distribution of accidents associated with its construction, opening or operation. Our approach and findings can help inform urban planning internationally.

An overview of geospatial methods used in unintentional injury epidemiology

Background

Injuries are a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Injury incidence is often associated with socio-economic and physical environmental factors. The application of geospatial methods has been recognised as important to gain greater understanding of the complex nature of injury and the associated diverse range of geographically-diverse risk factors. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide an overview of geospatial methods applied in unintentional injury epidemiological studies.

Methods

Nine electronic databases were searched for papers published in 2000–2015, inclusive. Included were papers reporting unintentional injuries using geospatial methods for one or more categories of spatial epidemiological methods (mapping; clustering/cluster detection; and ecological analysis). Results describe the included injury cause categories, types of data and details relating to the applied geospatial methods.

Results

From over 6,000 articles, 67 studies met all inclusion criteria. The major categories of injury data reported with geospatial methods were road traffic (n = 36), falls (n = 11), burns (n = 9), drowning (n = 4), and others (n = 7). Grouped by categories, mapping was the most frequently used method, with 62 (93%) studies applying this approach independently or in conjunction with other geospatial methods. Clustering/cluster detection methods were less common, applied in 27 (40%) studies. Three studies (4%) applied spatial regression methods (one study using a conditional autoregressive model and two studies using geographically weighted regression) to examine the relationship between injury incidence (drowning, road deaths) with aggregated data in relation to explanatory factors (socio-economic and environmental).

Conclusion

The number of studies using geospatial methods to investigate unintentional injuries has increased over recent years. While the majority of studies have focused on road traffic injuries, other injury cause categories, particularly falls and burns, have also demonstrated the application of these methods. Geospatial investigations of injury have largely been limited to mapping of data to visualise spatial structures. Use of more sophisticated approaches will help to understand a broader range of spatial risk factors, which remain under-explored when using traditional epidemiological approaches.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40621-016-0097-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Driver injury severity outcome analysis in rural interstate highway crashes: a two-level Bayesian logistic regression interpretation

There is a high potential of severe injury outcomes in traffic crashes on rural interstate highways due to the significant amount of high speed traffic on these corridors. Hierarchical Bayesian models are capable of incorporating between-crash variance and within-crash correlations into traffic crash data analysis and are increasingly utilized in traffic crash severity analysis. This paper applies a hierarchical Bayesian logistic model to examine the significant factors at crash and vehicle/driver levels and their heterogeneous impacts on driver injury severity in rural interstate highway crashes. Analysis results indicate that the majority of the total variance is induced by the between-crash variance, showing the appropriateness of the utilized hierarchical modeling approach. Three crash-level variables and six vehicle/driver-level variables are found significant in predicting driver injury severities: road curve, maximum vehicle damage in a crash, number of vehicles in a crash, wet road surface, vehicle type, driver age, driver gender, driver seatbelt use and driver alcohol or drug involvement. Among these variables, road curve, functional and disabled vehicle damage in crash, single-vehicle crashes, female drivers, senior drivers, motorcycles and driver alcohol or drug involvement tend to increase the odds of drivers being incapably injured or killed in rural interstate crashes, while wet road surface, male drivers and driver seatbelt use are more likely to decrease the probability of severe driver injuries. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insightful understanding of the internal mechanism of rural interstate crashes and beneficial references for developing effective countermeasures for rural interstate crash prevention.

Quantifying the causal effects of 20mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation

This paper estimates the causal effect of 20mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms.

Effects of new urban motorway infrastructure on road traffic accidents in the local area: a retrospective longitudinal study in Scotland

BACKGROUND

The M74 motorway extension, Glasgow, opened in June 2011. One justification for construction was an expectation that it would reduce road traffic accidents (RTAs) on local non-motorway roads. This study evaluated the impact of the extension on the number of RTAs, stratifying by accident severity.

METHODS

Data for the period 1997-2014 were extracted from a UK database of reported RTAs involving a personal injury. RTA severity was defined by the level of injury: minor, severe or fatal. RTAs were assigned to (1) the local area surrounding the motorway extension, (2) a comparator area surrounding an existing motorway or (3) a control area elsewhere in the conurbation. Interrupted time-series regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors was used to determine longitudinal between-area differences in change in the number of RTAs, which might indicate an intervention effect.

RESULTS

Glasgow and surrounding local authorities saw a 50.6% reduction in annual RTAs (n: 5901 to 2914) between 1997 and 2014. In the intervention area, the number of recorded RTAs decreased by 50.7% (n: 758 to 374), and that of fatal/severe RTAs by 57.4% (n: 129 to 55), with similar reductions in the comparator/control areas. The interrupted time-series analysis showed no significant between-area differences in temporal trends. The reduction of pedestrian casualties was attenuated in the intervention area relative to Glasgow and surrounding authorities.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction in RTAs was not associated with the motorway extension. Our findings suggest that in planning future investment, it should not be taken for granted that new road infrastructure alone will reduce RTAs in local areas. Urbanisation is proceeding rapidly worldwide, and evidence of infrastructure changes is lacking; this novel study provides important findings for future developments.

Installation of speed humps and pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions in Toronto, Canada: a quasi-experimental study

Background

Evidence related to the effectiveness of speed humps on reducing pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions (PMVC) has been conflicting. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between speed hump installation and changes in PMVC rates in Toronto, Canada.

Methods

Speed humps were mapped along with police-reported pedestrian collisions from 2000–2011 and built environment roadway characteristics. A quasi-experimental study identified collision counts before and after speed hump installation, modeled using repeated measures Poisson regression adjusted for season and roadway characteristics. Stratified analyses were conducted by age group and injury severity.

Results

There were 27,827 PMVC, with 1344 collisions along 409 roadways with speed humps. PMVC incidence rates/meters of road/month decreased after installation of speed humps (IRR 0.78 95 % CI 0.66, 0.91). Winter, collector roads (versus local), pre-amalgamated city centre and increased land use mix were associated with more collisions. The association between speed humps and PMVC rates decreased more for children (IRR 0.57, 95 % CI 0.41, 0.79) than for adults (IRR 0.80, 95 % CI 0.68, 0.95).

Conclusions

Speed humps are an easily replicated method of traffic calming which have a significant protective effect on PMVC on the roadways where they are installed, particularly for children. There is a need for an area-wide analysis to determine the effects of the installation of speed humps to ensure that PMVC are not being displaced to surrounding roadways.

Factors associated with single-vehicle and multi-vehicle road traffic collision injuries in Ireland

Generalised linear regression models were used to identify factors associated with fatal/serious road traffic collision injuries for single- and multi-vehicle collisions. Single-vehicle collisions and multi-vehicle collisions occurring during the hours of darkness or on a wet road surface had reduced likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle 'driver with passengers' collisions occurring at junctions or on a hill/gradient were less likely to result in a fatal/serious injury. Multi-vehicle rear-end/angle collisions had reduced likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle 'driver only' collisions and multi-vehicle collisions occurring on a public/bank holiday or on a hill/gradient were more likely to result in a fatal/serious injury. Single-vehicle collisions involving male drivers had increased likelihood of a fatal/serious injury and single-vehicle 'driver with passengers' collisions involving drivers under the age of 25 years also had increased likelihood of a fatal/serious injury. Findings can enlighten decision-makers to circumstances leading to fatal/serious injuries.

Note on evaluating safety performance of road infrastructure to motivate safety competition

Road infrastructures are usually developed and maintained by governments or public sectors. There is no competitor in the market of their jurisdiction. This monopolic feature discourages road authorities from improving the level of safety with proactive motivation. This study suggests how to apply a principle of competition for roads, in particular by means of performance evaluation. It first discusses why road infrastructure has been slow in safety oriented development and management in respect of its business model. Then it suggests some practical ways of how to promote road safety between road authorities, particularly by evaluating safety performance of road infrastructure. These are summarized as decision of safety performance indicators, classification of spatial boundaries, data collection, evaluation, and reporting. Some consideration points are also discussed to make safety performance evaluation on road infrastructure lead to better road safety management.

Trust, negotiation, and communication: young adults' experiences of primary care services

BACKGROUND

Young adulthood is an important transitional period during which there is a higher risk of individuals engaging in behaviours which could have a lasting impact on their health. Research has shown that young adults are the lowest responders to surveys about healthcare experiences and are also the least satisfied with the care they receive. However, the factors contributing to this reduced satisfaction are not clear. The focus of our research was to explore the needs and experiences of young adults around healthcare services with an aim of finding out possible reasons for lower satisfaction.

METHODS

Twenty young adults were interviewed at GP surgeries and at a local young adult advice agency, exploring their experiences and use of primary care services. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

The use of primary care services varied amongst the young adult interviewees. Many interviewees reported positive experiences; those who did not linked their negative experiences to difficulties in negotiating their care with the health care system, and reported issues with trust, and communication difficulties. Most of the interviewees were unaware of the use of patient surveys to inform healthcare planning and delivery and were not inclined to take part, mainly because of the length of surveys and lack of interest in the topic area.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to effectively address the health needs of young adults, young adults need to be educated about their rights as patients, and how to most efficiently use primary care services. GPs should be alert to effective means of approaching and handling the healthcare needs of young adults. A flexible, varied approach is needed to gathering high quality data from this group in order to provide services with information on the changes necessary for making primary care services more accessible for young adults.

Socioeconomic inequalities in injury mortality in small areas of 15 European cities

This study analysed socioeconomic inequalities in mortality due to injuries in small areas of 15 European cities, by sex, at the beginning of this century. A cross-sectional ecological study with units of analysis being small areas within 15 European cities was conducted. Relative risks of injury mortality associated with the socioeconomic deprivation index were estimated using hierarchical Bayesian model. The number of small areas varies from 17 in Bratislava to 2666 in Turin. The median population per small area varies by city (e.g. Turin had 274 inhabitants per area while Budapest had 76,970). Socioeconomic inequalities in all injury mortality are observed in the majority of cities and are more pronounced in men. In the cities of northern and western Europe, socioeconomic inequalities in injury mortality are found for most types of injuries. These inequalities are not significant in the majority of cities in southern Europe among women and in the majority of central eastern European cities for both sexes. The results confirm the existence of socioeconomic inequalities in injury related mortality and reveal variations in their magnitude between different European cities.

Controlling for exposure changes the relationship between ethnicity, deprivation and injury: an observational study of child pedestrian injury rates in London

BACKGROUND

Research has suggested that inequalities in risk exposure may help explain identified ethnic inequalities in child pedestrian injury risk. However, addressing risk exposure in epidemiological research presents theoretical and methodological challenges. This article conceptualises the risk of child pedestrian injury as related to both exposure levels (the quantity of time children spend as pedestrians) and the probability of a hazard where that exposure takes place (the quality of the road environment).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the sensitivity of results on ethnic inequalities in child pedestrian injury risk in London to control for exposure and hazard levels.

METHODS

Using police records of injury 2000-2009, we modelled the relationship between ethnicity, deprivation and child pedestrian injury rates in London using characteristics of the road environment to control for hazard levels and restricting the analysis to the time of the weekday morning commute (7.00-9.00 am), when most children must make a journey to school, to control for exposure levels.

RESULTS

Controlling for risk exposure in this way fundamentally changed the nature of the relationship between ethnicity, deprivation and child pedestrian injury. During the time of the morning commute to school, 'Black' children were found to have higher pedestrian injury rates in the least-deprived areas.

CONCLUSIONS

To inform effective strategies for reducing injury inequality, it is vital that exposure to risk is both acknowledged and considered.

Disentangling the impacts of geography and Aboriginality on serious road transport injuries in New South Wales

Aboriginal people in Australia have higher rates of transport injury than non-Aboriginal people, but a greater proportion of Aboriginal people live in rural or remote areas where risk of these injuries is higher. This paper investigated the contributing effect of geography on the relationship between Aboriginality and road transport injury rates in the state of New South Wales. Linked hospital admission and mortality records for individuals for the years 2001-2007 were grouped into distinct injury events. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to examine disparities in injury rates between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people clustered within geographic areas of residence. Overall, Aboriginal people had higher rates of road transport injuries (IRR: 1.18, 95% CIs: 1.09-1.28). However, there was no significant difference when geographic clustering was taken into account (IRR: 1.00, 95% CIs: 0.96-1.04). This effect was further influenced by mode of transport for the injury, with Aboriginal people having higher rates of pedestrian (IRR: 1.96, 95% CIs: 1.75-2.19) and lower rates of motorcycle (IRR: 0.64, 95% CIs: 0.59-0.70) injuries in all almost all local areas, while there was no systematic pattern across geographic areas for small vehicle injuries (IRR: 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.94-1.08). Geography plays an important role in the population disparity of road transport injuries between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people, and has a differential impact for different types of road transport injury. Exploring how individual and geographic factors influence patterns of disparity allows for clearer targeting of future intervention strategies.

Road traffic crashes and the protective effect of road curvature over small areas

Road bends are known to cause traffic crashes, but the hypothesis in this study was that small geographical areas with many road bends have less, not more, road casualties than comparable areas with fewer bends. Data on road crashes involving fatal, serious and slight casualties in 571 wards in Eastern England were examined against four measures of average road curvature (mean angle per bend, cumulative angle per km, number of bends per km and ratio of road distance to straight distance) using regression analysis. Taking account of other risk factors, measures of average road curvature in wards were negatively associated with crash numbers, especially for fatal crashes. The strongest associations were with the cumulative angle turned per km. The results add to evidence suggesting that road casualty risk effects vary with geographical scale. Although individual road bends might be hazardous, frequent bends have a protective effect over a few kilometres of road.

Acciphilia on the road: An analysis of severe collisions

INTRODUCTION

Although prior studies of road traffic accidents have found between-group differences in risk, little attention has been given to the encounter between drivers involved in severe collisions.

METHOD

The present study empirically evaluates two different possible causes of "social accidents," which are defined as collisions between two or more drivers where some faulty social interaction might be assumed, and which are the most prevalent cause of road injuries. The analyses use merged Israeli collision records from 1983 to 2004 with data from two national censuses, thus providing an unprecedented empirical basis to study the social foundations of car accidents. The data are used to adjudicate between two alternative hypotheses: the heterogeneity hypothesis (socially different drivers tend to collide) versus the homogeneity hypothesis (socially similar drivers tend to collide).

RESULTS

Multivariate analyses provide preliminary support for the latter hypothesis. Given an accident, there are more collisions among drivers from the same broad educational group, and the factors that influence this correlation are independent of geography. The paper thus leads to the idea that severe collisions reflect a sociological or ecological process that is akin to acciphilia.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

The preliminary findings suggest that variation between drivers may be preferable to similarity, since apparently there is a greater tendency toward collisions between similar drivers.

Socio-economic inequalities in mortality due to injuries in small areas of ten cities in Spain (MEDEA Project)

OBJECTIVES

To analyse socio-economic inequalities in mortality due to injuries among census tracts of ten Spanish cities by sex and age in the period 1996-2003.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional ecological study where the units of analysis are census tracts. The study population consisted of people residing in the cities during the period 1996-2003. For each census tract we obtained an index of socio-economic deprivation, and estimated standardized mortality ratios using hierarchical Bayesian models which take into account the spatial structure of the data.

RESULTS

In the majority of the cities, the geographical pattern of total mortality from injuries is similar to that of the socio-economic deprivation index. There is an association between mortality due to injuries and the deprivation index in the majority of the cities which is more important among men and among those younger than 45 years. In these groups, traffic injuries and overdoses are the causes most often associated with deprivation in the cities. The percentage of excess mortality from injuries related to socio-economic deprivation is higher than 20% in the majority of the cities, the cause with the highest percentage being drug overdose.

CONCLUSIONS

In most cities, there are socio-economic inequalities in mortality due to overdose and traffic injuries. In contrast, few cities have found association between suicide mortality and deprivation. Finally, no association was found between deprivation and deaths due to falls. Inequalities are higher in men and those under 45 years of age. These results highlight the importance of intra-urban inequalities in mortality due to injuries.

Pre-hospital trauma care resources for road traffic injuries in a middle-income country--a province based study on need and access in Iran

BACKGROUND

Access to pre-hospital trauma care can help minimize many of traffic related mortality and morbidity in low- and middle-income countries with high rate of traffic deaths such as Iran. The aim of this study was to assess if the distribution of pre-hospital trauma care facilities reflect the burden of road traffic injury and mortality in different provinces in Iran.

METHODS

This national cross-sectional study is based on ecological data on road traffic mortality (RTM), road traffic injuries (RTIs) and pre-hospital trauma facilities for all 30 provinces in Iran in 2006. Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients were used to describe the distributions of RTM/RTIs and pre-hospital trauma care facilities across provinces. Spearman rank-order correlation was performed to assess the relationship between RTM/RTI and pre-hospital trauma care facilities.

RESULTS

RTM and RTIs as well as pre-hospital trauma care facilities were distributed unequally between different provinces. There was no significant association between the rate of RTM and RTIs and the number of pre-hospital trauma care facilities across the country.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of pre-hospital trauma care facilities does not reflect the needs in terms of RTM and RTIs for different provinces. These results suggest that traffic related mortality and morbidity could be reduced if the needs in terms of RTM and RTIs were taken into consideration when distributing pre-hospital trauma care facilities between the provinces.

Neighborhood-level built environment and social characteristics associated with serious childhood motor vehicle occupant injuries

The effect of residential neighborhood characteristics on a child's risk of serious motor vehicle traffic occupant injuries was evaluated in New York State, USA, for the years 1993-2003, with particular focus on the effect of neighborhood walkability. Risk increased significantly (p < 0.0001) with decreasing street connectivity and as more workers commuted more than 30 min using means other than public transportation, along with more single-parent households and less college attainment in the neighborhood, regardless of whether New York City was in the study. After adjusting for age, gender and socio-economic community factors, the apparent loss of walkability in a child's neighborhood increases their risk of serious injury as an occupant of a motor vehicle.

The geography of recreational physical activity in England

Levels of physical activity have declined considerably over recent decades in England, and there is evidence that activity patterns vary across areas. Previous studies of the geography of physical activity have frequently relied on model based synthetic estimates. Using data from a large population survey this study develops a direct measure of recreational physical activity and investigates variations in activity patterns across English Local Authorities. For both sexes the results show a distinct geography of recreational physical activity associated with north/south variations and urban/rural status. The environmental and behavioural factors driving those patterns are still poorly understood. We conclude that the variations observed might reflect recreational opportunities and the socio-cultural context of areas.

Spatial clusters of violent deaths in a newly urbanized region of Brazil: highlighting the social disparities

BACKGROUND

Deaths due to homicides and traffic accidents among youth are a public health issue worldwide. Studies of the complex network of cause and effect on this topic point to both poverty and health inequalities. Different investigational approaches to intentional and unintentional deaths combined with socioeconomic variables can help create a better understanding of the association between violence and socioeconomic conditions. This study analyzed the spatial distribution and potential clusters of risk for intentional and unintentional deaths among youths aged 15-24 years in Goiânia, a newly urbanized city in central Brazil.

METHODS

Death data and residential addresses were extracted from the national Mortality Information System and validated by household visits. To detect all potential cases, we prospectively investigated every death classified as a transport accident, assault, legal intervention, intentional self-harm, unknown underlying cause, and undetermined intent according to the ICD-10.The Geographical Information System was used to plot residential addresses, and cases were interactively geocoded to the residential address level using a digital map of the municipality. Spatial scan statistic was applied (Poisson model) to identify clusters of census tracts with high mortality due to intentional injuries and traffic accidents. The socioeconomic variables obtained using census data were compared between the most likely cluster and other areas of the municipality.

RESULTS

The most violent deaths among young people were due to intentional injuries. Between August 2005 and August 2006, 145 addresses for cases of intentional injuries and traffic accidents were located and geocoded. No significant clusters for deaths due to traffic accidents were found within the municipality. One significant cluster (RR = 4.65; p = 0.029) composed of 14 cases of intentional deaths, mostly homicides, was detected in an emergent, populated, and very poor area on the outskirts of the town. This cluster had a significantly higher proportion of people with the lowest educational status, lowest income, and poor housing conditions in comparison to the remainder of the municipality.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight the link between social inequalities and intentional deaths, clearly showing the need for urgent social interventions to reduce violence and premature mortality.