A novel risk score that incorporates recipient and donor variables to predict 1-year mortality in the current era of lung transplantation

Scoring donor lungs for graft failure risk: The Lung Donor Risk Index (LDRI)

Lung transplantation lags behind other solid organ transplants in donor lung utilization due, in part, to uncertainty regarding donor quality. We sought to develop an easy-to-use donor risk metric that, unlike existing metrics, accounts for a rich set of donor factors. Our study population consisted of n = 26 549 adult lung transplant recipients abstracted from the United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research file. We used Cox regression to model graft failure (GF; earliest of death or retransplant) risk based on donor and transplant factors, adjusting for recipient factors. We then derived and validated a Lung Donor Risk Index (LDRI) and developed a pertinent online application (https://shiny.pmacs.upenn.edu/LDRI_Calculator/). We found 12 donor/transplant factors that were independently predictive of GF: age, race, insulin-dependent diabetes, the difference between donor and recipient height, smoking, cocaine use, cytomegalovirus seropositivity, creatinine, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch, ischemia time, and donation after circulatory death. Validation showed the LDRI to have GF risk discrimination that was reasonable (C = 0.61) and higher than any of its predecessors. The LDRI is intended for use by transplant centers, organ procurement organizations, and regulatory agencies and to benefit patients in decision-making. Unlike its predecessors, the proposed LDRI could gain wide acceptance because of its granularity and similarity to the Kidney Donor Risk Index.

Development and validation of the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score for pulmonary transplantation

There is a chronic shortage of donor lungs for pulmonary transplantation due, in part, to low lung utilization rates in the United States. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database (2006-2019) and developed the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. A total of 83 219 brain-dead donors were included and were randomly divided into derivation (n = 58 314, 70%) and validation (n = 24 905, 30%) cohorts. The overall lung acceptance was 27.3% (n = 22 767). Donor factors associated with the lung acceptance were age, maximum creatinine, ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, mechanism of death by asphyxiation or drowning, history of cigarette use (≥20 pack-years), history of myocardial infarction, chest x-ray appearance, bloodstream infection, and the occurrence of cardiac arrest after brain death. The prediction model had high discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.891; 95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.895) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based, user-friendly tool (available at https://sites.wustl.edu/lundon) that provides the predicted probability of donor lung acceptance. LUNDON score was also associated with recipient survival in patients with high lung allocation scores. In conclusion, the multivariable LUNDON score uses readily available donor characteristics to reliably predict lung acceptability. Widespread adoption of this model may standardize lung donor evaluation and improve lung utilization rates.

Textbook Outcome: Definition and Analysis of a Novel Quality Measure in Lung Transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To define textbook outcome (TO) for lung transplantation (LTx) using a contemporary cohort from a high-volume institution.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

TO is a standardized, composite quality measure based on multiple postoperative endpoints representing the ideal "textbook" hospitalization.

METHODS

Adult patients who underwent LTx at our institution between 2016 and 2019 were included. TO was defined as freedom from intraoperative complication, postoperative reintervention, 30-day intensive care unit or hospital readmission, length of stay >75th percentile of LTx patients, 90 day mortality, 30-day acute rejection, grade 3 primary graft dysfunction at 48 or 72 hours, postoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, tracheostomy within 7 days, inpatient dialysis, reintubation, and extubation >48 hours post-transplant. Recipient, operative, financial characteristics, and post-transplant outcomes were recorded from institutional data and compared between TO and non-TO groups.

RESULTS

Of 401 LTx recipients, 97 (24.2%) achieved TO. The most common reason for TO failure was extubation >48 hours post-transplant (N = 119, 39.1%); the least common was mortality (N = 15, 4.9%). Patient and graft survival were improved among patients who achieved versus failed TO (patient survival: log-rank P < 0.01; graft survival: log-rank P < 0.01). Rejection-free and chronic lung allograft dysfunction-free survival were similar between TO and non-TO groups (rejection-free survival: log-rank P = 0.07; chronic lung allograft dysfunction-free survival: log-rank P = 0.3). On average, patients who achieved TO incurred approximately $638,000 less in total inpatient charges compared to those who failed TO.

CONCLUSIONS

TO in LTx was associated with favorable post-transplant outcomes and significant cost-savings. TO may offer providers and patients new insight into transplant center quality of care and highlight areas for improvement.

Lung Transplantation Advanced Prediction Tool: Determining Recipient's Outcome for a Certain Donor

BACKGROUND

Many risk-prediction models for lung transplantation are centered on recipient characteristics and do not account for impact of donor and transplant-related factors or only examine short-term outcomes (eg, predicted 1-y survival). We sought to develop a comprehensive model guiding recipient-donor matching.

METHODS

We identified double lung transplant recipients (≥12 y old) in the United Network for Organ Sharing Registry (2005-2020) to develop a risk scoring tool. Cohort was divided into derivation and validation sets. A total of 42 recipient, donor, and transplant factors were included in the analysis. Lasso method was used for variable selection. Survival was estimated using Cox-proportional hazard models. An interactive web-based tool was developed for clinical use.

RESULTS

A derivation cohort (n = 10 660) informed the model with 13-recipient, 4-donor, and 2-transplant variables. Adjusted risk scores were computed for every transplant and grouped into 3 clusters. Model-estimated survival probabilities were similar to the observed in the validation cohort (n = 4464) for all clusters. The mortality increases for medium- and high-risk groups was similar in both derivation and validation cohorts (C statistics for 1-, 5-, and 10-y survival were 0.67, 0.64, and 0.72, respectively). The web-based application estimated 1-, 5-, 10-y survival and half-life for low- (92%, 73%, 52%; 10.5 y), medium- (89%, 62%, 38%; 7.3 y), and high-risk clusters (85%, 52%, 26%; 5.2 y).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced methods incorporating machine/deep learning led to a risk scoring model (including recipient, donor, and transplant factors) and a web-based clinical tool providing short- and long-term survival probabilities for recipient-donor matches. This will enable risk-based matching that could improve utilization of and benefit from a limited donor pool.

Recipient Comorbidities for Prediction of Primary Graft Dysfunction, Chronic Allograft Dysfunction and Survival After Lung Transplantation

Since candidates with comorbidities are increasingly referred for lung transplantation, knowledge about comorbidities and their cumulative effect on outcomes is scarce. We retrospectively collected pretransplant comorbidities of all 513 adult recipients transplanted at our center between 1992–2019. Multiple logistic- and Cox regression models, adjusted for donor-, pre- and peri-operative variables, were used to detect independent risk factors for primary graft dysfunction grade-3 at 72 h (PGD3-T72), onset of chronic allograft dysfunction grade-3 (CLAD-3) and survival. An increasing comorbidity burden measured by Charleston-Deyo-Index was a multivariable risk for survival and PGD3-T72, but not for CLAD-3. Among comorbidities, congestive right heart failure or a mean pulmonary artery pressure >25 mmHg were independent risk factors for PGD3-T72 and survival, and a borderline risk for CLAD-3. Left heart failure, chronic atrial fibrillation, arterial hypertension, moderate liver disease, peptic ulcer disease, gastroesophageal reflux, diabetes with end organ damage, moderate to severe renal disease, osteoporosis, and diverticulosis were also independent risk factors for survival. For PGD3-T72, a BMI>30 kg/m2 was an additional independent risk. Epilepsy and a smoking history of the recipient of >20packyears are additional independent risk factors for CLAD-3. The comorbidity profile should therefore be closely considered for further clinical decision making in candidate selection.

Changes in Functional Status Among Kidney Transplant Recipients: Data From the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

With stressors of dialysis prekidney transplantation (KT) and restoration of kidney function post-KT, it is likely that KT recipients experience a decline in functional status while on the waitlist and improvements post-KT.

METHODS

We leveraged 224 832 KT recipients from the national registry (SRTR, February 1990-May 2019) with measured Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS, 0%-100%) at listing, KT admission, and post-KT. We quantified the change in KPS from listing to KT using generalized linear models. We described post-KT KPS trajectories using adjusted mixed-effects models and tested whether those trajectories differed by age, sex, race, and diabetes status using a Wald test among all KT recipients. We then quantified risk adverse post-KT outcomes (mortality and all-cause graft loss [ACGL]) by preoperative KPS and time-varying KPS.

RESULTS

Mean KPS declined from listing (83.7%) to admission (78.9%) (mean = 4.76%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.82, -4.70). After adjustment, mean KPS improved post-KT (slope = 0.89%/y, 95% CI: 0.87, 0.91); younger, female, non-Black, and diabetic recipients experienced greater post-KT improvements (Pinteractions < 0.001). Lower KPS (per 10% decrease) at admission was associated with greater mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.11) and ACGL (aHR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.09) risk. Lower post-KT KPS (per 10% decrease; time-varying) were more strongly associated with mortality (aHR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.92, 1.94) and ACGL (aHR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.83, 1.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional status declines pre-KT and improves post-KT in the national registry. Despite post-KT improvements, poorer functional status at KT and post-KT are associated with greater mortality and ACGL risk. Because of its dynamic nature, clinicians should repeatedly screen for lower functional status pre-KT to refer vulnerable patients to prehabilitation in hopes of reducing risk of adverse post-KT outcomes.

Comparison of donor scores in bilateral lung transplantation-A large single-center analysis

Objectifying donor lung quality is difficult and currently there is no consensus. Several donor scoring systems have been proposed in recent years. They all lack large-scale external validation and widespread acceptance. A retrospective evaluation of 2201 donor lungs offered to the lung transplant program at the Medical University of Vienna between January 2010 and June 2018 was performed. Five different lung donor scores were calculated for each offer (Oto, ET, MALT, UMN-DLQI, and ODSS). Prediction of organ utilization, 1-year graft survival, and long-term outcome were analyzed for each score. 1049 organs were rejected at the initial offer (group I), 209 lungs declined after procurement (group II), and 841 lungs accepted and transplanted (group III). The Oto score was superior in predicting acceptance of the initial offer (AUC: 0.795; CI: 0.776-0.815) and actual donor utilization (AUC: 0.660; CI: 0.618-0.701). Prediction of 1-year graft survival was best using the MALT score, Oto score, and UMN-DLQI. Stratification of early outcome by MALT was significant for length of mechanical ventilation (LMV), PGD3 rates, ICU stay and hospital stay, and in-hospital-mortality, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the largest validation analysis comparing currently available donor scores. The Oto score was superior in predicting organ utilization, and MALT score and UMN-DLQI for predicting outcome after lung transplantation.

Lungs from polytrauma donors with significant chest trauma can be safely used for transplantation

BACKGROUND

The use of organs from polytrauma donors for lung transplantation is controversial in the literature. For many centers, the radiologic manifestation of lung contusions is a clear reason to reject an organ offer. This results in the loss of potentially viable organs for the donor pool.

METHODS

We analyzed 1152 donor lungs procured by our transplant center between January 2010 and June 2018. These included 118 lungs with a history of polytrauma involving the chest. Sixteen polytrauma donor lungs were rejected after procurement. A total of 102 lungs were transplanted, divided into 2 groups: the polytrauma contusion group (n = 44), comprising polytrauma donors with radiologic signs of lung contusion at the time of offer, and the polytrauma clear group (n = 58), comprising polytrauma donors without lung contusion. Nontrauma donor lungs transplanted during the study period were assigned to a polytrauma control group (n = 650). Short- and long-term outcomes of the 3 groups were compared.

RESULTS

Basic demographic data and preoperative factors were similar in the 3 groups. Rates of primary graft dysfunction grade 3 at 72 hours did not differ among the 3 groups (0.0% vs 3.4% vs 3.9%; P = .409). The duration of ventilation was similar the 3 groups: 45 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 28-94 hours), 37 hours (IQR, 22-71 hours), and 42 hours (IQR, 22-96 hours), respectively (P = .674). Long-term graft survival was not impaired in the trauma groups compared with controls. One-year survival rates were 84.1% for the polytrauma contusion group, 93.1% for the polytrauma clear group, and 83.1% for the no polytrauma group. Five-year graft survival in the 3 groups was 74.7%, 87.2%, and 70.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung transplantation using organs from polytrauma donors is associated with similar short- and long-term results as transplantation from nontrauma donors. The presence or absence of radiologic signs of lung contusion at the time of offer has no impact on primary graft function and long-term survival.

A new lung donor score to predict short and long-term survival in lung transplantation

Background

Donor selection criteria are crucial for a successful lung transplant outcome. Our objective was to develop a new donor score to predict short- and long-term survival and validate it with five existing lung donor scores (Oto, Eurotransplant, Minnesota, Maryland-UNOS, Louisville-UNOS).

Methods

All 454 adult lung transplants at our center between 1992–2015 were included to develop a new score. Discriminative ability for all scores was calculated by the area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (time-dependent AUC) at 30-day, 1, 5 and 10-year survival, and their fit compared with Akaike’s information criterion. For the new score, five pre-selected donor risk factors were derived: age, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, pulmonary infection, PaO₂/FiO₂-ratio, weighed via simplification of a multiple Cox model, and shrinkage used to avoid overfitting. The score sub-weighting resulted in a total of 17 points.

Results

The existing scores showed predictive accuracy better than chance in prediction of survival of 5-year (AUC 0.58–0.60) to 10-year survival (AUC 0.58–0.64). Our new score had better discriminative ability as the existing scores with regard to 1, 5 and 10-year survival (AUC 0.59, 0.64, 0.66, respectively). Additional adjustment for recipient and surgical procedure variables improved the time-dependent AUC’s slightly. For the secondary outcomes primary graft dysfunction and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome, the new score showed also a good predictive accuracy.

Conclusions

The proposed Zurich Donor Score is simple, well adapted for the current urge of extended donors use, and shows higher discriminative ability compared to preexisting donor scores regarding short- to long-term survival.

Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is associated with poor long-term survival and graft failure after lung transplantation

PURPOSE

We aimed to assess the prognostic value of Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) on long-term outcomes and graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all patients receiving a lung transplant at our institution from 2011 to 2014. The primary exposure was elevated NLR at the time of transplant, defined by NLR>4. The primary outcomes were graft failure and three-year all-cause mortality. Multivariate logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to analyze outcomes.

RESULTS

95 patients were included. 40 patients (42%) had an elevated NLR. Elevated NLR was associated with graft failure (OR: 4.7 [1.2-18.8], p = 0.02), and three-year mortality (OR: 5.4 [1.3-23.2], p = 0.03) on multivariate logistic regression. Patients with elevated NLR demonstrated significantly lower survival on Kaplan-Meier analysis (50% versus 74%, p = 0.02). The c-statistic for our multivariate model was 0.91.

CONCLUSION

Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is associated with poor long-term survival and graft failure after lung transplantation.

Outcomes and risk factors identification in urgent lung transplantation: a multicentric study

Background

In rapidly lung deteriorating patients, urgent lung transplantation (ULT) seems the only definitive therapy. Few publications on this topic report conflicting results, putting a word of caution about ULT programs.

Methods

A national ULT program was introduced in 2010: patients on mechanical support may be transplanted with the first available graft. We reviewed the experience of three national center, focusing on post-operative outcomes after ULT.

Results

Ten patients (17.5%) died awaiting transplantation, while 47 underwent LT with a median urgent waiting list time of 6 days. Pre-operatively, 4.3% of patients were supported only by mechanical ventilation (MV), 55.3% by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and the remaining 40.4% by both. The main indication was cystic fibrosis (64%). Median recipient lung allocation score was 72. In-hospital mortality was 19%. MV and ECMO median duration of 7 and 3 days, respectively while intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay were 20 and 46 days, respectively. At long-term, 1- and 3-year survival rate were 74% and 70%, respectively. Highly impact risk factors for in-hospital mortality were both presence and duration of preoperative veno-arterial ECMO and pre-transplant C-reactive protein level.

Conclusions

ULT program allows transplantation in a significant percentage of patients with acceptable results. Pre-operative recipient selection is mandatory to improve clinical outcomes.

Children's Heart Assessment Tool for Transplantation (CHAT) Score: A Novel Risk Score Predicts Survival After Pediatric Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Given the shortage of donor organs in pediatric heart transplantation (HTx), pretransplant risk stratification may assist in organ allocation and recipient optimization. We sought to construct a scoring system to preoperatively stratify a patient's risk of one-year mortality after HTx.

METHODS

The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for pediatric (<18 years) patients undergoing HTx between 2000 and 2016. The population was randomly divided in a 4:1 fashion into derivation and validation cohorts. A multivariable logistic regression model for one-year mortality was constructed within the derivation cohort. Points were then assigned to independent predictors ( P < .05) based on relative odds ratios (ORs). Risk groups were established based on easily applicable, whole-integer score cutoffs.

RESULTS

A total of 5,700 patients underwent HTx; one-year mortality was 10.7%. There was a similar distribution of variables between derivation (n = 4,560) and validation (n = 1,140) cohorts. Of the 12 covariates included in the final model, nine were allotted point values. The low-risk (score 0-9), intermediate-risk (10-20), and high-risk (>20) groups had a 5.18%, 10%, and 28% risk of one-year mortality ( P < .001), respectively. Both intermediate-risk (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.93-3.15; P < .001) and high-risk (OR = 9.24, 95% CI: 6.92-12.35; P < .001) scores were associated with an increased risk of one-year mortality when compared to the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

The Children's Heart Assessment Tool for Transplantation score represents a pediatric-specific, recipient-based system to predict one-year mortality after HTx. Its use could assist providers in identification of patients at highest risk of poor outcomes and may aid in pretransplant optimization of these children.

Radiological patterns of secondary sclerosing cholangitis in patients after lung transplantation

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the radiological patterns of secondary sclerosing cholangitis (SSC) following lung transplantation.

METHODS

Fifty-five patients underwent abdominopelvic CT before and after lung transplantation for end stage pulmonary disease. Nine patients underwent MR cholangiopancreatography (MRCP). The radiological patterns of biliary abnormalities (location, bile duct dilatation with stricture, beaded appearance, and biliary casts/sludge), laboratory data (serum total bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase), and patient survival rates were evaluated. SSC was diagnosed when there were newly developed biliary abnormalities with cholestasis after lung transplantation. Potential perioperative risk factors pertaining to SSC were analyzed. Patient survival rates with or without SSC were compared.

RESULTS

Six of the 55 patients showed imaging and laboratory findings of SSC after lung transplantation. Multifocal dilatation and stricture involved the intrahepatic (6 of 6, 100%), hilar (4 of 6, 66.7%), and extrahepatic bile duct (1 of 6, 16.7%). On CT, the lesions presented as multifocal small cyst-like lesions along the bile duct course. On MRCP, the lesions showed beaded appearance with mild duct dilatation. Preoperative mechanical ventilation and bilateral lung transplantation were associated with SSC (p < 0.05). The median survival of patients with SSC was 4.6 months.

CONCLUSION

Lung transplantation can induce SSC similar to SSC in critically ill patients, and result in worse clinical outcomes than in patients without SSC. Multifocal small cyst-like lesions along the intrahepatic bile duct on CT and beaded appearance on MRCP are suggestive findings of SSC in patients with cholestasis after lung transplantation.

Five-Year Mortality Hazard Is Reduced In Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Receiving Double- versus Single-Lung Transplants

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest double-lung transplant (DLT) may be associated with superior survival compared to single-lung transplantation (SLT) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) recipients. The purpose of this study was to compare survival in patients with COPD undergoing DLT versus SLT since the inception of the lung allocation score.

METHODS

We used the United Network for Organ Sharing database to retrospectively identify adult patients with COPD who underwent isolated lung transplantation from 5/4/2005-12/31/2014. We then separated patients into DLT versus SLT. Short-term (1 y) and long-term survival (5 y) were compared between DLT and SLT cohorts by the method of Kaplan-Meier, and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to adjust for case mix.

RESULTS

Four thousand eight hundred thirty-two COPD patients were listed, and 3554 underwent lung transplantation over the study period, including 1358 SLTs (38%) and 2196 DLTs (62%). Survival 1 y after listing was 93% for those remaining wait listed (n = 1892) versus 91% for SLT (n = 1093) versus 89% for DLT (n = 1847) (log-rank P < 0.01). Survival at 1 y after transplant was 88% for both SLT and DLT groups (log-rank P = 0.93); however, 5-y survival was significantly lower after SLT (51% versus 59%, log-rank P < 0.01). After risk adjustment, hazard for 1-y mortality after DLT was not significantly reduced compared to SLT (hazard ratio 0.89 [0.69-1.14], P = 0.36) but was significantly reduced 5 y after DLT (hazard ratio 0.88 [0.78-0.99], P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In the largest survival analysis of COPD recipients since the inception of the lung allocation score, the hazard for 5-y mortality was significantly reduced in recipients who underwent DLT as compared to SLT.

Traumatically Brain-Injured Donors and the Impact on Lung Transplantation Survival

BACKGROUND

Concern has been raised over inferior lung transplantation survival associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) organ donors. Our purpose was to explore the relationship between TBI donors and lung transplantation survival in the lung allocation score (LAS) era.

METHODS

We queried the United Network for Organ Sharing Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and identified all adult (≥18 years) lung transplantations performed from May 4, 2005, to December 31, 2015. Recipients were dichotomized based on donor cause of death, TBI versus non-TBI, propensity score across eight variables (final LAS, intensive care unit admission before transplantation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation before transplantation, donor age 50 years or older, cytomegalovirus antibody recipient^-/donor⁺, ischemia time, annual center transplantation volume, single versus double lung transplantation), and matched 1:1 without replacement. Our primary outcomes were survival at 1, 3, and 5 years by Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 17,610 patients underwent isolated lung transplantation over the study period at 75 different transplantation centers. TBI was the leading cause of death in the donor population: 47% of all donors. Propensity score matching generated 6,782 well-matched donor TBI versus non-TBI pairs (all covariate p > 0.2). Risk-adjusted survival was similar between recipients of TBI donors versus non-TBI donors at 1 year (86% versus 86%, log-rank p = 0.27), 3 years (68% versus 68%, log-rank p = 0.47), and 5 years (55% versus 54%, log-rank p = 0.40).

CONCLUSIONS

In the largest analysis of TBI donors and the impact on lung transplantation survival to date, we found similar survival out to 5 years in lung transplant recipients of TBI versus non-TBI donors, alleviating concerns over continued transplantation with this unique donor population.

Impaired Renal Function Should Not Be a Barrier to Transplantation in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated an association between pretransplantation renal dysfunction (PRD) and increased mortality after lung transplantation (LT). The purpose of this study was to determine whether PRD impacts survival after LT in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF).

METHODS

We queried the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database to identify all adult (≥18 years) recipients with CF who underwent isolated LT from May 4, 2005 to December 31, 2014. We separated recipients into those with and those without PRD (glomerular filtration rate [GFR] ≤60 mL/min). We excluded patients who required dialysis before transplantation. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess unadjusted survival differences. Cox proportional hazards modeling was then performed across 26 variables to assess the risk-adjusted impact of PRD on 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality.

RESULTS

Isolated LT was performed on 1,830 patients with CF; 17 patients were excluded because of pretransplantation dialysis. Eighty-two of 1,813 patients (4.5%) had PRD (GFR ≤60 mL/min). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed no survival differences between PRD and non-PRD groups at 1 year (85.3% versus 89.5%; log-rank p = 0.23), 3 years (71.0% versus 72.5%; p = 0.57), or 5 years (63.3% versus 59.8%; p = 0.95). After risk adjustment, PRD was not independently associated with an increased hazard for mortality at 1 year (hazard ratio [HR], 1.38 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-2.58]; p = 0.31), 3 years (HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 0.92-2.24]; p = 0.11), or 5 years (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 0.86-1.94]; p = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Although PRD has historically served as a relative contraindication to LT, our study is the first to suggest that among CF recipients, PRD was not associated with increased hazard for mortality out to 5 years after LT.

Perioperative factors associated with 1-year mortality after lung transplantation: a single-center experience in Korea

Background

Most studies about the risk factors of 1-year mortality after lung transplantation were performed on non-Asians. This study aimed to evaluate the perioperative factors related to the 1-year mortality after lung transplantation in Korea.

Methods

Sixty-eight consecutive patients who underwent lung transplantation without preoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment at 1 tertiary hospital in South Korea between October 24, 2012, and October 16, 2015, were analyzed retrospectively.

Results

Forty-four patients (64.7%) lived for >1 year after lung transplantation. The median age of all patients was 55 years (range, 16-75 years), and men accounted for 57.4%. The major cause of lung transplantation was idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (48.5%); the other causes were interstitial lung disease related to connective tissue disease (17.6%) and bronchiolitis obliterans after stem cell transplantation (14.7%). In univariate analysis, higher median age (52 vs. 61.5 years, P<0.001), male sex (45.5% vs. 79.2%, P=0.007), lower preoperative albumin level (<3 g/dL) (22.7% vs. 45.8%, P=0.049), need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) after surgery (4.5% vs. 37.5%, P=0.001), and postoperative delta neutrophil index (DNI) >5.5 higher than the preoperative DNI (22.7% vs. 70.8%, P<0.001) were significantly related to 1-year mortality. After adjustments, old age, postoperative increased DNI, and need for RRT after transplantation were the independent perioperative risk factors for 1-year mortality after lung transplantation.

Conclusions

Recipients with advanced age should be carefully selected, and patients who need RRT or with increased DNI after transplantation should be managed accordingly.

Massive donor transfusion potentially increases recipient mortality after lung transplantation

OBJECTIVE

Donor blood transfusion has been identified as a potential risk factor for primary graft dysfunction and by extension early mortality. We sought to define the contributing risk of donor transfusion on early mortality for lung transplant.

METHODS

Donor and recipient data were abstracted from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database updated through June 30, 2014, which included 86,398 potential donors and 16,255 transplants. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing 4-level designation of transfusion (no blood, 1-5 units, 6-10 units, and >10 units, massive), we analyzed all-cause mortality at 30-days with the use of logistic regression adjusted for confounders (ischemic time, donor age, recipient diagnosis, lung allocation score and recipient age, and recipient body mass index). Secondary analyses assessed 90-day and 1-year mortality and hospital length of stay.

RESULTS

Of the 16,255 recipients transplanted, 8835 (54.35%) donors received at least one transfusion. Among those transfused, 1016 (6.25%) received a massive transfusion, defined as >10 units. Those donors with massive transfusion were most commonly young trauma patients. After adjustment for confounding variables, donor massive transfusion was associated significantly with an increased risk in 30-day (P = .03) and 90-day recipient mortality (P = .01) but not 1-year mortality (P = .09). There was no significant difference in recipient length of stay or hospital-free days with respect to donor transfusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Massive donor blood transfusion (>10 units) was associated with early recipient mortality after lung transplantation. Conversely, submassive donor transfusion was not associated with increased recipient mortality. The mechanism of increased early mortality in recipients of lungs from massively transfused donors is unclear and needs further study but is consistent with excess mortality seen with primary graft dysfunction in the first 90 days posttransplant.

Simulated Regionalization of Heart and Lung Transplantation in the United States

We simulated the impact of regionalization of isolated heart and lung transplantation within United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) regions. Overall, 12 594 orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) patients across 135 centers and 12 300 orthotopic lung transplantation (OLT) patients across 67 centers were included in the study. An algorithm was constructed that "closed" the lowest volume center in a region and referred its patients to the highest volume center. In the unadjusted analysis, referred patients were assigned the highest volume center's 1-year mortality rate, and the difference in deaths per region before and after closure was computed. An adjusted analysis was performed using multivariable logistic regression using recipient and donor variables. The primary outcome was the potential number of lives saved at 1 year after transplant. In adjusted OHT analysis, 10 lives were saved (95% confidence interval [CI] 9-11) after one center closure and 240 lives were saved (95% CI 209-272) after up to five center closures per region, with the latter resulting in 1624 total patient referrals (13.2% of OHT patients). For OLT, lives saved ranged from 29 (95% CI 26-32) after one center closure per region to 240 (95% CI 224-256) after up to five regional closures, but the latter resulted in 2999 referrals (24.4% of OLT patients). Increased referral distances would severely limit access to care for rural and resource-limited populations.

Risk Factors for De Novo Malignancy Following Lung Transplantation

Risk factors for non-skin cancer de novo malignancy (DNM) after lung transplantation have yet to be identified. We queried the United Network for Organ Sharing database for all adult lung transplant patients between 1989 and 2012. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were computed by comparing the data to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data after excluding skin squamous/basal cell carcinomas. We identified 18 093 adult lung transplant patients; median follow-up time was 1086 days (interquartile range 436-2070). DNMs occurred in 1306 patients, with incidences of 1.4%, 4.6%, and 7.9% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The overall cancer incidence was elevated compared with that of the general US population (SIR 3.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.95-3.60). The most common cancer types were lung cancer (26.2% of all malignancies, SIR 6.49, 95% CI: 5.04-8.45) and lymphoproliferative disease (20.0%, SIR 14.14, 95% CI: 9.45-22.04). Predictors of DNM following lung transplantation were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.05, p < 0.001), male gender (HR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.02-1.42, p = 0.03), disease etiology (not cystic fibrosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or interstitial lung disease, HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.97, p = 0.04) and single-lung transplantation (HR 1.64, 95% CI: 1.34-2.01, p < 0.001). Significant interactions between donor or recipient smoking and single-lung transplantation were noted. On multivariable survival analysis, DNMs were associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.44, 95% CI: 1.10-1.88, p = 0.009).

Hospital length of stay after lung transplantation: Independent predictors and association with early and late survival

BACKGROUND

Duration of index hospitalization after lung transplantation (LTx) is an important variable that has not received much attention. We sought to determine independent predictors of prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) and its association with early and late outcomes.

METHODS

The United Network of Organ Sharing database was queried for adult patients undergoing LTx between 2006 and 2014 (N = 14,320). Patients with dual organ or previous transplantation and patients who died during the first 25 days after LTx were excluded (n = 12,647, mean age 55.2 years ± 13.1). Primary outcome was prolonged LOS (>25 days) (3,251/12,647; 25.7%). Donor, recipient, and procedure-related variables were analyzed as potential predictors of prolonged LOS. Association of prolonged LOS with 1-year and 5-year survival was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS

Independent predictors of prolonged LOS included serum albumin, lung allocation score, functional status, and need of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or ventilator support at the time of transplant; donor age >40 years; gender mismatch (female donor to male recipient); donor body mass index; African American ethnicity; ischemic time >6 hours; and double LTx. Prolonged LOS was independently associated with increased mortality at 1 year (hazard ratio, 3.96; 95% confidence interval, 3.48-4.50; p < 0.001) and 5 years (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.25; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of patients have a prolonged LOS after LTx, and several recipient, donor, and procedure-related variables are independent predictors of this outcome. Patients with prolonged LOS after LTx have significantly increased risk of death at 1 year and 5 years.