Using geostatistics to better understand the epidemiology of animal rabies in Morocco: what is the contribution of the predictive value?

Spatial analysis of Varroa destructor and the relationship with surrounding landscape types in Southern Ontario

Elevated colony losses have continued to be an issue for Canadian beekeepers for more than a decade. Numerous studies have identified unmanaged Apis mellifera colony infestation by the Varroa destructor mite as a main cause of the problem. V. destructor spread externally of the hive through a phoretic stage in their life cycle. Consequently, their movement outside the hive is influenced by honey bee flight behaviours, which can range to multiple kilometers from the originating hive in any direction. V. destructor are therefore of regional concern as neighboring colonies and yards share nearby forage which can serve as fomites. Additionally, mites can be transmitted through bee behaviours such as robbing and drifting, thus impacting surrounding colonies. Understanding the distribution of mites across a population is key for surveillance and equitable allocation of resources. Spatial patterns of V. destructor infestations in Southern Ontario, Canada, were investigated using a combination of cluster analysis, scan statistics, and geostatistical modelling, using 5 years of provincial apiary inspection data, from 2015 to 2019. A collection of disease clusters of V. destructor infestations was identified and found to be stable over multiple years with several other individual clusters occurring sporadically throughout Southern Ontario during the same study period. Universal kriging was applied to the V. destructor data in combination with regional colony density, and land use data as covariates, producing an isopleth map of the prevalence risk for V. destructor infestation. No substantial link between V. destructor infestation and environmental factors was found. This study highlights the need for more data and investigation to determine the cause of the identified clusters and areas of elevated risk. These results are hypothesis-generating but simultaneously provide information for government agencies, industry organizations, and beekeepers into the spatial distribution of V. destructor at a macro scale.

The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study

Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area.

Human rabies: prospects for elimination

Almost half of all countries in the world are effectively free of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies. But the disease still affects people in low- and middle-income countries, especially the rural poor, and children. Successful regional elimination of human rabies is attributable to advances in significant and sustained investment in dog vaccination, post-exposure vaccination and surveillance, illustrated by productive efforts to reduce human rabies in Latin America over the last 35 years. Nonetheless, countries still facing endemic rabies face significant barriers to elimination. Using the 2017 Global Strategic Plan to end human rabies deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 as a reference point and an organizing framework, we assess progress toward global rabies elimination by examining the characteristics of successful regional control efforts and barriers to elimination. Although substantive barriers exist for countries where rabies remains endemic, advances in knowledge, technology, institutions, and economics provide a basis for optimism.