Comparative accuracy of different risk scores in assessing cardiovascular risk in Indians: a study in patients with first myocardial infarction

Comparison of the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India: the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

AIMS

We compared the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied the World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) tools, Australian Risk Score (ARS), and Global risk (Globorisk) prediction tools to participants aged 40-74 years, without prior cardiovascular disease, in the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study, Andhra Pradesh, India. Cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period were identified by verbal autopsy (fatal events) or self-report (non-fatal events). The predictive performance of each tool was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity and specificity of each tool for identifying high-risk individuals were assessed using a risk score cut-off of 10% alone or this 10% cut-off plus clinical risk criteria of diabetes in those aged >60 years, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Among 2333 participants (10 731 person-years of follow-up), 102 participants developed a cardiovascular event. The 5-year observed risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.6-5.3). The WHO-RS tools underestimated cardiovascular risk but the ARS overestimated risk, particularly in men. Both the laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.68 and χ2: 26.5, P = 0.003) and non-laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.69 and χ2: 20.29, P = 0.003) Globorisk tools showed relatively good discrimination and agreement. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off improved the diagnostic accuracy of all tools.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools performed disparately in a setting of disadvantage in rural India, with the Globorisk performing best. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off aids assessment of risk of a cardiovascular event in rural India.

LAY SUMMARY

In a cohort of people without prior cardiovascular disease, tools used to predict the risk of cardiovascular events varied widely in their ability to accurately predict who would develop a cardiovascular event.The Globorisk, and to a lesser extent the ARS, tools could be appropriate for this setting in rural India.Adding clinical criteria, such as sustained high blood pressure, to a cut-off of 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 5 years could improve identification of individuals who should be monitored closely and provided with appropriate preventive medications.

Prevalence of Traditional Risk Factors in First-Degree Relatives of Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease

INTRODUCTION

World Health Organization (WHO)/International Society of Hypertension (ISH) risk prediction charts are useful for predicting 10-year combined myocardial infarction and stroke risk (fatal and non-fatal). Hence the current study was conducted to assess the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease among adults in Ahmedabad, India.

AIMS

The primary aim of the study was to assess the cardiovascular risk among first-degree relatives of patients attending the outpatient clinic. Also, to create awareness regarding assessment of cardiovascular risk among the studied group.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 372 first-degree relatives of patients at an out-patient cardiology clinic present in Vadaj, Ahmedabad. The WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for South-East Asia Region D (SEAR D) was used for calculating the 10-year cardiovascular risk.

RESULTS

A maximum (80.10%) of the study participants were in the low-risk (<10%) category followed by 8.33% for moderate-risk (10-20%), 7.25% for moderately high-risk (20-30%), 2.42% for high-risk (30-40%) and 1.88% for very high-risk (>40%).

CONCLUSION

WHO/ISH risk prediction charts provide a quick and effective way to assess and categorize the population in a low-resource setting which in turn helps in delivering focused intervention to the high-risk groups.

Comparison of Framingham Risk Scores (FRS), Joint British Society (JBS3), and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Cardiovascular Risk Scores Among Adults With First Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of myocardial infarction (MI) among young Indian adults is on the rise with reports suggesting 32.7% of all deaths in men and 32.6% of all deaths in women between 2010-13 were due to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Though various long-term cohort studies have established risk assessment scores none of them are specific to the Indian population. In this study, we look to establish which scoring system among the American College of Cardiology (ACC), Joint British Society (JBS3) and Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) would be reliable for the Indian population. A timely intervention based on the most reliable score can help mitigate cardiovascular diseases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we included Indian adults, aged more than 40 years, with first MI. Patients previously on lipid lowering drugs were excluded. Demographic data, history, clinical information, laboratory data and other investigations were noted. Subsequently the predicted cardiovascular risk scores based on JBS3, ACC, and FRS were calculated and divided into low risk, intermediate and high risk based on the categorization of the risk scores individually.

RESULTS

There were 102 (79.1%) males and 23 (17.8%) females with a mean age of 51.01 years (standard deviation [SD]=12.82, p value <0.001). There was considerable prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus with 56 (47.1%) of the subjects being known diabetics. The mean 10-year risk of MI based on ACC was 12.42% (SD=10.45), mean JBS3 score was 14.45% (SD=12.67) and mean FRS score was 15.75% (SD=14.71). FRS scores when categorized, 48 (40.3%) patients had low risk, 30 (23.3%) had medium risk and 43 (33.3%) had high risk. As for ACC score, 39 (35.8%) patients were in low risk and 29 (26.6%) in intermediate risk, borderline in 18 (16.5%) and high risk in 23 (21.1%). In JBS3 scores, 53 (46.5%) patients were in low risk, 32 (28.1%) were in moderate risk and 29 (25.4%) in high risk.

CONCLUSION

 The absolute value of 10-year risk scores was highest for FRS scores. The proportion of patients whose scores were under the category of high risk was highest for FRS.

Evaluation of cardiovascular diseases risk calculators for CVDs prevention and management: scoping review

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. This review aimed to summarise evidence on the key features, usability and benefits of CVD risk calculators using digital platforms for CVDs prevention and management in populations.

Methods

We used search engines and thematic analyses to conduct a scoping review. As the reporting guideline for this review, we used Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).

Results

A total of 17 studies meeting eligibility criteria were included in the analysis, from which about 70% of the studies have prognostic level I (n = 8) and level II (n = 4) evidence. The review found that various guidelines are recommending different algorithms for CVD risk prediction. The QRISK® was the most accurate CVD risk calculator for several study populations, whereas World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk scores were the least accurate. The key features of CVD risk calculators are variables, predictive accuracy, discrimination index, applicability, understandability, and cost-effectiveness.

Conclusion

For the selected risk prediction tool, development and validation research must be done, which considers a mix of stroke-specific risk and CVD risk to establish its usability in the local community and advantages to the particular health-care environment. To get healthcare professionals more involved in preventing and treating CVDs, each healthcare setting should use an online CVD risk assessment tool that is more useful, accurate, and easy to use, based on the population and health system.

Guidelines for dyslipidemia management in India: A review of the current scenario and gaps in research

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) have a high disease burden in India. Dyslipidemia, a major CVD risk factor, requires effective management.

Our review describes the appropriateness of the international dyslipidemia guidelines in the Indian context. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Google Scholar, Cochrane Library and Science Direct to obtain relevant articles.

Dyslipidemia management guidelines by western medical associations are based on their studies, with ethnic minorities underrepresented and biological features of other racial groups inadequately incorporated. The Lipid Association of India (LAI) came up with a consensus statement guided by an expert panel to adapt the western guidelines to Indians. However, absence of Indian guidelines has led to physicians basing treatment on individual preference, contributing to heterogeneity. Our review underscores the need for formulating Indian dyslipidemia management guidelines and CV risk estimation algorithms, highlighting the scope for further research. This could supplement the clinical expertise of LAI and enhance patient experience.

Cross-sectional assessment of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with knee osteoarthritis

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are prevalent in India. However, there is dearth of literature among Indians studying the relationship between the two. This study was carried out to assess various cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in patients with knee OA with an objective to investigate their association, screening and management.  Methods: In total, 225 patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Participants were diagnosed with knee OA on the basis of the Kellgren and Lawrence (K-L) classification of their radiograph. Participants were also assessed for CV risk factors (age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, smoking) with the help of the Joint British Society QRisk3 calculator (JBS3) a comprehensive risk score calculator as well as a screening tool, which produces three more variables, namely 10-years risk of developing CVD, physiological heart age and life expectancy. Chi Square, Fishers exact test and one-way ANOVA tests were used to compare the categorical and quantitative variables, respectively. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to assess the relationship between CV risk factors and knee OA. Multiple regression analysis was done to adjust the multiple con-founders and determine their significance. Results: Patients with severe knee OA had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of CV risk factors (p<0.05). Grade 4 knee OA patients were found to have a mean JBS3 risk of 38%, heart age of 82 years and life expectancy of 77 years as compared to grade 2 patients who had a mean JBS3 risk of 11%, heart age of 63 years and life expectancy of 82 years.  Conclusions: Our study concluded that there is a strong positive correlation between knee OA and CVD, with CV risk score being directly proportional to the severity of OA.

The use of screening tools for cardiovascular risk assessment in psoriasis – A case- control study

Background:

Psoriasis is a common, T-cell-mediated disease, affecting 0.44–2.8% of the general population in India. It is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease possibly due to chronic inflammation. Those patients with severe psoriasis are at a higher risk of death due to cardiovascular disease. The use of scoring tools may help the care providers to assess cardiovascular risks in these patients.

Aims:

The aim of this study was to assess the cardiovascular risks in patients with severe psoriasis using the commonly used risk-assessment tools (Framingham risk score [FRS] and Pooled cohort equations [PCE]) and to understand the utility of these tools in practice.

Methods:

It is a case-control study performed in the dermatology outpatient department of a tertiary care center during the study period from January to December 2020. Consenting adults with chronic plaque psoriasis and psoriasis area and severity index (PASI) more than 10 were included in the study. The FRS and PCE risk scores were calculated for the patients and age- and sex-matched healthy controls.

Results:

A total of 213 patients were assessed and 30 patients were excluded. Of the 183 patients, 152 patients were assessed using FRS and 135 patients using PCE. Equal number of age- and sex-matched healthy controls were also assessed. The mean age of the patients assessed using the FRS and PCE was 47 ± 10.9 and 52.84 ± 8.9 years, respectively. The mean age of the controls was 45.52 ± 8.7 and 51.76 ± 8.1 years in the FRS and PCE groups, respectively. The male to female ratio was 1.92:1 and 2:1 in the FRS and PCE risk-score groups, respectively. The mean PASI score was 16.45 ± 7.88 and 15.6 ± 7.6 in the two groups, respectively. The 10-year risk estimate using FRS in the patients ranged from 0 to 26.9%. The mean and median estimates were 4.95 ± 5.7 and 2.8%, respectively, while 2.65 ± 4.7 and 0.8% in the controls (P = 0.001). The 10-year risk estimate in the patients using the PCE risk score ranged from 0.3 to 39.6%. The mean and median estimate in the patients was 8.17 ± 9.9 and 5.2%, respectively while they were 5.68 ± 7.5% and 2.6% in the controls (P = 0.024). The agreement between the FRS and PCE was found to be poor (Ϗ, 0.049). There was no statistically significant correlation of PASI to either the PCE risk score (P = 0.498) or FRS (P = 0.630).

Limitations:

A small sample size, and study in a tertiary care center may have resulted in sampling bias.

Conclusion:

Psoriasis is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease. These tools may help a dermatologist in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. It can also help in the awareness of the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients.

Place of cardiovascular risk prediction models in South Asians; agreement between Framingham risk score and WHO/ISH risk charts

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

There are no cardiovascular risk prediction models developed in South Asian cohorts. Therefore, different risk models not validated in South Asians are being used. We aimed to compare cardiovascular risk predictions of Framingham risk score (FRS) and World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for agreement in a sample of South Asians.

METHODS

Ten-year cardiovascular risk predictions of patients without previous cardiovascular diseases attending a non-communicable disease clinic were calculated using FRS (with BMI and with cholesterol) and WHO/ISH charts (with and without cholesterol). Patients were categorised into low (<20%) and high (≥20%) cardiovascular risk groups on risk predictions. Agreement in risk categorisation with different prediction models was compared using Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ).

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-nine patients (females 130 (81.1%)) mean age 65 ± 6.9 years were studied. Of the participants, 80 (47.3%), 62 (36.7%), 18 (10.7%), 16 (9.5%), were predicted high risk by FRS BMI-based, FRS cholesterol-based, WHO/ISH without-cholesterol and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models, respectively. Agreement between the two FRS models (κ = 0.736, P < .0001) and the two WHO/ISH models (κ = 0.804, P < .0001) in stratifying patients into high and low-risk groups, was "good." However, the agreements between FRS BMI-based and WHO/ISH without-cholesterol models (κ = 0.234, P < .0001) and FRS cholesterol-based and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models (κ = 0.306, P < .0001) were only "fair."

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk predictions of FRS were higher than WHO/ISH charts and the agreement in risk stratification was not satisfactory in Sri Lankans. Therefore, different cardiovascular risk prediction models should not be used interchangeably in the follow-up of South Asians.

Cross-sectional assessment of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with knee osteoarthritis

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are prevalent in India. However, there is dearth of literature among Indians studying the relationship between the two. This study was carried out to assess various cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in patients with knee OA with an objective to investigate their association, screening and management.  Methods: In total, 225 patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Participants were diagnosed with knee OA on the basis of the Kellgren and Lawrence (K-L) classification of their radiograph. Participants were also assessed for CV risk factors (age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, smoking) with the help of the Joint British Society QRisk3 calculator (JBS3) a comprehensive risk score calculator as well as a screening tool, which produces three more variables, namely 10-years risk of developing CVD, physiological heart age and life expectancy. Chi Square, Fishers exact test and one-way ANOVA tests were used to compare the categorical and quantitative variables, respectively. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to assess the relationship between CV risk factors and knee OA. Multiple regression analysis was done to adjust the multiple con-founders and determine their significance. Results: Patients with severe knee OA had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of CV risk factors (p<0.05). Grade 4 knee OA patients were found to have a mean JBS3 risk of 38%, heart age of 82 years and life expectancy of 77 years as compared to grade 2 patients who had a mean JBS3 risk of 11%, heart age of 63 years and life expectancy of 82 years.  Conclusions: Our study concluded that there is a strong positive correlation between knee OA and CVD, with CV risk score being directly proportional to the severity of OA.

Comparative risk assessment for the development of cardiovascular diseases in the Hungarian general and Roma population

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of death globally, and the early identification of high risk is crucial to prevent the disease and to reduce healthcare costs. Short life expectancy and increased mortality among the Roma are generally accepted (although not indeed proven by mortality analyses) which can be partially explained by the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) among them. This study aims to elaborate on the prevalence of the most important CVD risk factors, assess the estimation of a 10-year risk of development of fatal and nonfatal CVDs based on the most used risk assessment scoring models, and to compare the Hungarian general (HG) and Roma (HR) populations. In 2018 a complex health survey was accomplished on the HG (n = 380) and HR (n = 347) populations. The prevalence of CVRS was defined and 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated for both study populations using the following systems: Framingham Risk Score for hard coronary heart disease (FRS_CHD) and for cardiovascular disease (FRS_CVD), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE). After the risk scores had been calculated, the populations were divided into risk categories and all subjects were classified. For all CVD risk estimation scores, the average of the estimated risk was higher among Roma compared to the HG independently of the gender. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma males population was on average 1.5–3 times higher than in the general one. Among Roma females, the average risk value was higher than in the HG one. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma females population was on average 2–3 times higher compared to the distribution of females in the general population. Our results show that both genders in the Hungarian Roma population have a significantly higher risk for a 10-year development of cardiovascular diseases and dying from them compared to the HG one. Therefore, cardiovascular interventions should be focusing not only on reducing smoking among Roma but on improving health literacy and service provision regarding prevention, early recognition, and treatment of lipid disorders and diabetes among them.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction using JBS3 Tool: A Kerala based Study

Background:

Accuracy of Joint British Society calculator3 (JBS3) cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment tool may vary across the Indian states, which is not verified in south Indian, Kerala based population.

Objectives:

To evaluate the traditional risk factors (TRFs) based CV risk estimation done in Kerala based population.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study uses details of 977 subjects aged between 30 and 80 years, recorded from the medical archives of clinical locations at Ernakulum district, in Kerala. The risk categories used are Low (<7.5%), Intermediate (≥7.5% and <20%), and High (≥20%) 10-year risk classifications. The lifetime classifications are Low lifetime (≤39%) and High lifetime (≥40%) are used. The study evaluated using statistical analysis; the Chi-square test was used for dependent and categorical CV risk variable comparisons. A multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis for the 10-year risk and odds logistic regression analysis for the lifetime risk model identified the significant risk variables.

Results:

The mean age of the study population is 52.56±11.43 years. With 39.1% in low, 25.0% in intermediate, and 35.9% has high 10-year risk. Low lifetime risk with 41.1%, the high lifetime risk has 58.9% subjects. The intermediate 10-year risk category shows the highest reclassifications to High lifetime risk. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicates a good model fit.

Conclusion:

Timely interventions using risk predictions can aid in appropriate therapeutic and lifestyle modifications useful for primary prevention. Precaution to avoid short-term incidences and reclassifications to a high lifetime risk can reduce the CVD related mortality rates.

Cardiovascular Risk Calculators and their Applicability to South Asians

BACKGROUND

Estimation of absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and tailoring therapies according to the estimated risk is a fundamental concept in the primary prevention of CVD is assessed in this study. Numerous CVD risk scores are currently available for use in various populations but unfortunately, none exist for South Asians who have much higher CVD risk as compared to their western counterparts.

METHODS

A literature search was done using PubMed and Google search engines to prepare a narrative review on this topic.

RESULTS

Various currently available CVD risk scores and their pros and cons are summarized. The studies performed in native as well as migrant South Asians evaluating the accuracy of these risk scores for estimation of CVD risk are also summarized. The findings of these studies have generally been inconsistent, but it appears that the British risk scores (e.g. QRISK versions) may be more accurate because of inclusion of migrant South Asians in the derivation of these risk scores. However, the lack of any prospective study precludes our ability to draw any firm conclusions. Finally, the potential solution to these challenges, including the role of recalibration and subclinical atherosclerosis imaging, is also discussed.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the need to develop large, representative, prospectively followed databases of South Asians providing information on various CVD risk factors and their contribution to incident CVD. Such databases will not only allow the development of validated CVD risk scores for South Asians but will also enable application of machine-learning approaches to provide personalized solutions to CVD risk assessment and management in these populations.

The Potential Benefit of Monitoring Oxidative Stress and Inflammation in the Prevention of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)

The significant increase in worldwide morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) indicates that the efficacy of existing strategies addressing this crisis may need improvement. Early identification of the metabolic irregularities associated with the disease process may be a key to developing early intervention strategies. Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are well established drivers of the development of several NCDs, but the impact of such behaviours on health can vary considerably between individuals. How can it be determined if an individual's unique set of lifestyle behaviours is producing disease? Accumulating evidence suggests that lifestyle-associated activation of oxidative and inflammatory processes is primary driver of the cell and tissue damage which underpins the development of NCDs. However, the benefit of monitoring subclinical inflammation and oxidative activity has not yet been established. After reviewing relevant studies in this context, we suggest that quantification of oxidative stress and inflammatory biomarkers during the disease-free prodromal stage of NCD development may have clinical relevance as a timely indicator of the presence of subclinical metabolic changes, in the individual, portending the development of disease. Monitoring markers of oxidative and inflammatory activity may therefore enable earlier and more efficient strategies to both prevent NCD development and/or monitor the effectiveness of treatment.

A Cross-Sectional Study to Evaluate Cardiovascular Risk Score in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality worldwide, including in low- and middle-income countries. Cardiovascular risk assessment is essential to prevent the mortality caused by diabetes.

Aim

The current study was conducted to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetes and to compare the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and World Health Organization (WHO)/International Society of Hypertension (ISH) chart in assessing cardiovascular risk score.

Materials and Methods

Cardiac risk assessments were done in fifty patients attending the medicine outpatient department in an institutional hospital after ethical clearance and taking informed consent from patients. Two assessment tools were applied on the same patient.

Results

Overall, 10% of people were obese (body mass index >30). Smoking was prevalent in 20% (10/50) of patients. Hypertension was observed in 60% (30/50) of patients. Raised total cholesterol (TC) was the most common lipid abnormality affecting 94% of patients. The WHO/ISH prediction charts identified 14% and 10% of patients with cardiovascular risk category <10 and 10-20, whereas the UKPDS engine predicted 24% and 38% in the same category. In high-risk categories 30-40 and >40, the WHO/ISH score predicted a higher proportion of patients (18% and 32%) than the UKPDS engine (8% and 4%, respectively). Kappa value was calculated to calculate the degree of agreement between two tools, and it was found to be 0.781 (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

Raised TC and hypertension were the most prevalent risk factors. There was no significant discrepancy between two assessment tools in predicting cardiovascular risk score among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in our study.

Years of Potential Life Lost Because of Cardiovascular Disease in Asian-American Subgroups, 2003-2012

Background

Asian‐American subgroups (Asian‐Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Korean, Japanese, and Vietnamese) display varied cardiovascular disease mortality patterns, especially at younger ages. This study aims to examine the years of potential life lost because of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease among the 6 largest Asian‐American subgroups compared with non‐Hispanic whites.

Methods and Results

We used National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Causes of Death mortality files from 2003 to 2012 to calculate race‐specific life expectancy, mean years of potential life lost, and years of potential life lost per 100 000 population for each Asian subgroup and non‐Hispanic whites. Asian‐American subgroups display heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease burden. Asian‐Indians had a high burden of ischemic heart disease; Asian‐Indian men lost 724 years per 100 000 population in 2012 and a mean of 17 years to ischemic heart disease. Respectively, Vietnamese and Filipino men and women lost a mean of 17 and 16 years of life to cerebrovascular disease; Filipino men lost 352 years per 100 000 population in 2012. All Asian subgroups for both sexes had higher years of life lost to cerebrovascular disease compared with non‐Hispanic whites.

Conclusions

Cardiovascular disease burden varies among Asian subgroups, and contributes to greater premature mortality in certain subgroups. Asian‐Indian and Filipino populations have the highest years of life lost because of ischemic heart disease and Filipino and Vietnamese have the highest years of life lost because of cerebrovascular disease. Analysis of risk factors and development of subgroup‐specific interventions are required to address these health disparities.

Prediction and early detection of cardiovascular disease in South Asians with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Although diabetes mellitus (DM) is no longer considered "coronary heart disease risk equivalent", the risk remains sufficiently high, necessitating early recognition and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in these patients. Despite this understanding, the optimum strategy for prediction and early detection of CVD in DM remains debatable.

METHODS

Major societal guidelines for prediction and evaluation of CVD in subjects with or without DM were reviewed. Available evidence about various risk stratification strategies-their advantages, disadvantages and current role in clinical practice-were extensively reviewed. Special emphasis was placed on evidence from South Asian/Indian populations.

RESULTS

The inconsistency and variability inherent to the clinical risk algorithms, lack of consensus regarding the incremental value of subclinical atherosclerosis imaging and the lack of sufficient data to demonstrate the benefits of recognizing asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease are some of the reasons underlying prevailing uncertainty about the optimum approach for cardiovascular risk assessment in DM. These challenges notwithstanding, an evidence-based cardiovascular risk stratification strategy incorporating clinical risk algorithms, biomarkers, atherosclerosis imaging, and cardiac stress testing is proposed.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed algorithm should help clinicians in optimizing cardiovascular evaluation and management of their patients with DM. However, this remains a dynamic field; further research into different risk assessment tools, esp. focusing on their impact on improving clinical outcomes, should help refine the evaluation strategy in future.

A comparison of cardiovascular risk scores in native and migrant South Asian populations

Background

South Asians have increased cardiovascular risk burden but little data exists comparing cardiovascular (CV) risk models in migrant and native South Asians. Our retrospective cohort study in patients presenting with first acute myocardial infarction(MI) compares the predictive value of CV risk scores in native and UK migrant South Asians.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of 80 UK-based patients of South Asian origin admitted with first presentation MI, excluding patients with known coronary artery disease. A retrospective 10-year CV risk was calculated for each patient using four cardiovascular risk models: Framingham Risk Score(Risk_FRS), World Health Organisation(Risk_WHO), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association(ACC/AHA) (Risk_ACC/AHA), and 3^rdJoint British Societies'(Risk_JBS). Our aim was to assess agreement between these risk scores and conduct comparative analysis with native South Asians.

Results

Risk_JBS identified the largest proportion of migrant South Asians as ‘high risk’ with 65% of subjects having an estimated >20% 10-year CV risk. Risk_WHO provided the lowest 10-year CV risk estimates for South Asian migrants, identifying 21.25% of the migrant cohort as >20% risk of major CV event. Comparative analysis with the native South Asian cohort demonstrated Risk_JBS as the risk model most likely to identify patients as ‘high'(>20%) risk(55.9%; p = 0.224).

Conclusions

This study represents the first analysis of predictive cardiovascular risk scores comparing migrant and native South Asian populations. Significant variation between the CV risk scores were observed, leading to inaccuracies in patient cardiovascular risk estimation. Given the growing burden of cardiovascular disease in Asian countries and different population characteristics, we highlight the need for population specific CV disease risk models whilst providing stimulus for further large-scale prospective studies.

•

South Asians are at increased risk of premature CV disease compared to the global population.

•

Accurate assessment of CVD risk helps to target risk reduction strategies.

•

We evaluated the agreement between four CV risk scores, by retrospective analysis of data post MI within South Asian populations.

•

We demonstrate that accurately predicting CV risk in South Asian populations remains challenging with marked variations between CV risk prediction models.

•

Our study supports the case for using South Asian specific CV risk scores.

A cross-sectional validation study comparing the accuracy of different risk scores in assessing the risk of acute coronary syndrome among patients in a tertiary care hospital in Kerala

Background

There are many cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score calculators in practice, which are not based on Indian population data.

Objectives

To identify the best CVD risk score calculator applicable in the Indian population.

Materials and methods

A total of 1000 patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were included in the study and their CVD risk score, had they presented before the event, was calculated. The Framingham risk score (FRS–body mass index [BMI], FRS–fasting lipid profile [FLP]), the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation risk calculator (ACC/AHA PCE), Joint British Society risk calculator 3 (JBS3) and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts (WHO TC and WHO without TC [WHO NO TC]) were used.

Results

It was seen that among the 1000 people included in the study, the FRS-BMI (59.2%), FRS-FLP (61.5%), ACC/AHA (70.1%) and the JBS3 (62.5%) identified a majority as having a risk of ≥20%, whereas both the WHO TC (65.3%) and the WHO NO TC (64.5%) identified a majority of the ACS patients as having a risk of <20%. The sensitivity was highest for the ACC/AHA (87.8%), FRS-FLP (85.1%) and then JBS3 (80.1%), whereas the specificity was highest for the WHO TC (83.6%) and the WHO NO TC (82.1%). When looking at the accuracy, the FRS-FLP was the most accurate with 80.1%, whereas the ACC/AHA and the JBS3 followed at 74.7% and 73.1%, respectively.

Conclusion

The ACC/AHA seems to be an acceptable risk prediction system to be used in the Indian population and is also relatively easy and cheap to use.

Atherosclerosis risk assessment in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a case-control study

Purpose

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is considered as a risk factor for atherosclerosis and a leading cause of mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD). The study assessed the association of COPD with atherosclerotic risk factors and compared the predictor role of various cardiovascular (CV) risk score calculators in Indian subjects with COPD.

Patients and methods

Forty subjects with stable COPD and forty age, gender and body mass index (BMI)-matched healthy controls were included in the case-control study conducted in a tertiary care hospital. Atherogenic indices were calculated by using the values of lipid parameters. CV risk calculators were utilized to assess the 10-year CV risk for the COPD group.

Results

The study subjects had a mean age of 60.83±12.40 years in COPD group and 57.73±9.49 years in control group (p=0.213). Gender distribution was similar in both the groups. The mean High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were 3.70±2.37 mg/L in COPD group and 2.39±2.23 mg/L in control group. The hs-CRP levels were significantly higher in COPD than in control subjects (p=0.012). Using bivariate correlations, we found significant positive correlations between hs-CRP and atherogenesis indices-atherogenic index of plasma, cardiogenic risk ratio, atherogenic coefficient in COPD patients [(r=0.4265, p<0.006); (r=0.7034, p<0.001) and (r=0.7034, p<0.001), respectively]. Framingham risk score-cardiovascular disease (FRS-CVD) has identified maximum number of COPD subjects (45%) to be in high CVD risk category.

Conclusion

The study concluded that hs-CRP levels in COPD subjects were significantly higher than in control subjects. FRS-CVD was most useful for identifying high CV risk subjects in COPD subjects.

A Hybrid Risk Assessment Model for Cardiovascular Disease Using Cox Regression Analysis and a 2-means clustering algorithm

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) refers to a state that indicates narrowed or blocked blood vessels, and it can lead to cardiac arrest, chest pain (angina) or stroke. CVD is a leading cause of silent massive heart attacks and is a major threat to life. The mere prediction of the presence or absence of CVD alone is inefficient in current scenarios. Rather, a major need has arisen for the prediction of CVD, the acquisition of knowledge about CVD and the assessment of the likelihood that an individual will experience cardiac arrest. The objective of establishing an individual CVD risk assessment has been attained in this paper using a hybrid model. The CVD of an individual is due to various controllable and uncontrollable factors. The computation and analysis of all these factors are difficult and time consuming. Only a few attributes are identified to be the most critical. This optimization of the critical features is performed using a modified Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm. The identified critical factors are sufficient to predict the presence/absence of CVD. In this paper, these identified critical features of individuals are considered using Cox regression analysis that evaluates the prevalence rates of the critical attributes. These individual prevalence rates together predict the cumulative prevalence ratios of the respective individuals. This cumulative prevalence ratio of an individual, along with the class attribute, is processed using the 2-means clustering technique to determine the risk of a particular individual developing CVD. The evaluation of the risk assessment model is carried out in this paper by calculating the prediction accuracy of the Cox regression analysis and the Davies-Bouldin (DB) index for 2-means clustering. The Cox regression analysis results in a 91% CVD prediction accuracy using the critical attributes and is comparatively higher than that of other models. The DB index of 2-means clustering with specific initial means for clusters of individuals with CVD is 0.282 and that for clusters of individuals without CVD is 0.2836, which are comparatively lower than those of the traditional k-means clustering algorithm.

Lipids in South Asians: Epidemiology and Management

Purpose of Review

This review focuses on lipoprotein abnormalities in South Asians (SA) and addresses risk stratification and management strategies to lower atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in this high-risk population.

Recent Findings

South Asians (SAs) are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States (U.S) and have an increased risk of premature coronary artery disease (CAD). While the etiology may be multifactorial, lipoprotein abnormalities play a key role. SAs have lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) compared with Whites and at any given LDL-C level, SA ethnicity poses a higher risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary artery disease (CAD) compared with other non-Asian groups. SAs have lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) with smaller particle sizes of HDL-C compared with Whites. SAs also have higher triglycerides than Whites which is strongly related to the high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in SAs. Lipoprotein a (Lp(a)) levels are also higher in SAs compared with many other ethnic groups. This unique lipoprotein profile plays a vital role in the elevated ASCVD risk in SAs. Studies evaluating dietary patterns of SAs in the U.S show high consumption of carbohydrates and saturated fats.

Summary

SAs have a high-risk lipoprotein profile compared with other ethnicities. Lipid abnormalities play a central role in the pathogenesis of CAD in SAs. More studies are needed to understand the true impact of the various lipoproteins and their contribution to increasing ASCVD in SAs. Aggressive lowering of LDL-C in high-risk groups using medications, such as statins, and lifestyle modification including dietary changes is essential in overall CAD risk reduction.

Adaptation of 2016 European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society guideline for lipid management to Indian patients - A consensus document

In the year 2016, European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) guidelines provided recommendations on dyslipidemia management. The recommendation from these guidelines are restricted to European subcontinent. To adapt the updated recommendations for Indian subset of dyslipidemia, a panel of experts in management of dyslipidemia provided their expert opinions. This document provides expert consensus on adapting 2016 ESC dyslipidemia guidelines recommendations in Indian setting. The document also discussed India-specific relevant literature to support the consensus opinions provided in management of dyslipidemia.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in South Asians in the United States: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Treatments: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

South Asians (from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) make up one quarter of the world's population and are one of the fastest-growing ethnic groups in the United States. Although native South Asians share genetic and cultural risk factors with South Asians abroad, South Asians in the United States can differ in socioeconomic status, education, healthcare behaviors, attitudes, and health insurance, which can affect their risk and the treatment and outcomes of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). South Asians have higher proportional mortality rates from ASCVD compared with other Asian groups and non-Hispanic whites, in contrast to the finding that Asian Americans (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) aggregated as a group are at lower risk of ASCVD, largely because of the lower risk observed in East Asian populations. Literature relevant to South Asian populations regarding demographics and risk factors, health behaviors, and interventions, including physical activity, diet, medications, and community strategies, is summarized. The evidence to date is that the biology of ASCVD is complex but is no different in South Asians than in any other racial/ethnic group. A majority of the risk in South Asians can be explained by the increased prevalence of known risk factors, especially those related to insulin resistance, and no unique risk factors in this population have been found. This scientific statement focuses on how ASCVD risk factors affect the South Asian population in order to make recommendations for clinical strategies to reduce disease and for directions for future research to reduce ASCVD in this population.

Prevalence by Computed Tomographic Angiography of Coronary Plaques in South Asian and White Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at Low and High Risk Using Four Cardiovascular Risk Scores (UKPDS, FRS, ASCVD, and JBS3)

The aim of this study was to explore the association between various cardiovascular (CV) risk scores and coronary atherosclerotic burden on coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) in South Asians with type 2 diabetes mellitus and matched whites. Asymptomatic type 2 diabetic South Asians and whites were matched for age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia. Ten-year CV risk was estimated using different risk scores (United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study [UKPDS], Framingham Risk Score [FRS], AtheroSclerotic CardioVascular Disease [ASCVD], and Joint British Societies for the prevention of CVD [JBS3]) and categorized into low- and high-risk groups. The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD; ≥50% stenosis) was assessed using coronary CTA. Finally, the relation between coronary atherosclerosis on CTA and the low- and high-risk groups was compared. UKPDS, FRS, and ASCVD showed no differences in estimated CV risk between 159 South Asians and 159 matched whites. JBS3 showed a significant greater absolute CV risk in South Asians (18.4% vs 14.2%, p <0.01). Higher presence of CAC score >0 (69% vs 55%, p <0.05) and obstructive CAD (39% vs 27%, p <0.05) was observed in South Asians. South Asians categorized as high risk, using UKPDS, FRS, and ASCVD, showed more CAC and CAD compared than whites. JBS3 showed no differences. In conclusion, asymptomatic South Asians with type 2 diabetes mellitus more frequently showed CAC and obstructive CAD than matched whites in the population categorized as high-risk patients using UKPDS, FRS, and ASCVD as risk estimators. However, JBS3 seems to correlate best to CAC and CAD in both ethnicity groups compared with the other risk scores.

Comparison of different cardiovascular risk score calculators for cardiovascular risk prediction and guideline recommended statin uses

Objective

The accuracy of various 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators in Indians may not be the same as in other populations. Present study was conducted to compare the various calculators for CVD risk assessment and statin eligibility according to different guidelines.

Methods

Consecutive 1110 patients who presented after their first myocardial infarction were included. Their CVD risk was calculated using Framingham Risk score- Coronary heart disease (FRS-CHD), Framingham Risk Score- Cardiovascular Disease (FRS-CVD), QRISK2, Joint British Society risk calculator 3 (JBS3), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and WHO risk charts, assuming that they had presented one day before cardiac event for risk assessment. Eligibility for statin uses was also looked into using ACC/AHA, NICE and Canadian guidelines.

Results

FRS-CVD risk assessment model has performed the best as it could identify the highest number of patients (51.9%) to be at high CVD risk while WHO and ASCVD calculators have performed the worst (only 16.2% and 28.3% patients respectively were stratified into high CVD risk) considering 20% as cut off for high risk definition. QRISK2, JBS3 and FRS-CHD have performed intermediately. Using NICE, ACC/AHA and Canadian guidelines; 76%, 69% and 44.6% patients respectively were found to be eligible for statin use.

Conclusion

FRS-CVD appears to be the most useful for CVD risk assessment in Indians, but the difference may be because FRS-CVD estimates risk for several additional outcomes as compared with other risk scores. For statin eligibility, however, NICE guideline use is the most appropriate.

Assessment of 2013 AHA/ACC ASCVD risk scores with behavioral characteristics of an urban cohort in India: Preliminary analysis of Noncommunicable disease Initiatives and Research at AMrita (NIRAM) study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death and disability in India. Early and sustained exposure to behavioral risk factors leads to development of CVDs.The aim of this study was to determine the baseline risk of a "hard CVD event" in subjects attending comprehensive health clinic and assess behavioral characteristics in "at risk" population.Using WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance modified questionnaire, prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and risk factors was estimated in this cross-sectional study of 4507 subjects. Baseline cardiovascular risk was determined using Framingham risk score (FRS) and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) algorithms. Modifiable behavior associated with high CVD risk was assessed. Among 40 to 59-year olds, ASCVD risk tool derived both a 10-year and lifetime risk score, which were used to stratify the cohort into 3 risk groups, namely, a high 10-year and high lifetime, a low 10-year and high lifetime, and a low 10-year and low lifetime risks.Dyslipidemia (30.6%), hypertension (25.5%), diabetes mellitus (20%), and obstructive airway disorders (17.6%) were most prevalent NCDs in our cohort. The ASCVD score stratified 26.1% subjects into high 10-yr and 59.5% into high lifetime risk while FRS classified 17.2% into high 10-year risk. Compared with FRS, the ASCVD risk estimator identified a larger proportion of subjects "at risk" of developing CVD. A high prevalence of alcohol use (38.4%), decreased intake of fruits and vegetables (96.2%) and low physical activity (58%) were observed in "at risk" population. Logistic regression analysis showed that in 40 to 59-year group, regular and occasional drinkers were 8.5- and 3.1-fold more likely to be in high 10-year and high lifetime ASCVD risk category than in low 10-year and low lifetime risk group. Similarly, regular drinkers and occasional drinkers were 2.1 and 1.3 times more likely to be in low 10-year and high lifetime risk than in low 10-year and low lifetime risk category. Subjects with inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables were 1.59 times more likely to be in low 10-year and high lifetime risk than the lower 10-year and lifetime risk group. Obese participants were 2.3-fold more likely to be in low 10-year and high lifetime risk.Identification of "at risk" subjects from seemingly healthy population will allow sustainable primary prevention strategies to reduce CVD.

Predictive Validity of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations in Predicting All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Specific Mortality in a National Prospective Cohort Study of Adults in the United States

The predictive validity of the Pooled Cohort risk (PCR) equations for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific and all-cause mortality among a national sample of US adults has yet to be evaluated, which was this study's purpose. Data from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed up through December 31, 2011, to ascertain mortality status via the National Death Index probabilistic algorithm. The analyzed sample included 11,171 CVD-free adults (40-79 years of age). The 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was determined from the PCR equations. For the entire sample encompassing 849,202 person-months, we found an incidence rate of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.07) all-cause deaths per 1000 person-months and an incidence rate of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.12-0.17) CVD-specific deaths per 1000 person-months. The unweighted median follow-up duration was 72 months. For nearly all analyses (unadjusted and adjusted models with ASCVD expressed as a continuous variable as well as dichotomized at 7.5% and 20%), the ASCVD risk score was significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality (P<.05). In the adjusted model, the increased all-cause mortality risk ranged from 47% to 77% based on an ASCVD risk of 20% or higher and 7.5% or higher, respectively. Those with an ASCVD score of 7.5% or higher had a 3-fold increased risk of CVD-specific mortality. The 10-year predicted risk of a first ASCVD event via the PCR equations was associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality among those free of CVD at baseline. In this American adult sample, the PCR equations provide evidence of predictive validity.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine

INTRODUCTION

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies.

PURPOSE

The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine.

METHODS

Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332).

RESULTS

WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (P<0.001). In the risk categories of 10%-<20%, the UKPDS risk engine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (<10%) by WHO/ISH when UKPDS recognized them as cardiac risk of >20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, P<0.01). Approximately 82% of individuals categorized as low cardiac risk by WHO/ISH had higher LDL cholesterol than the therapeutic target of 100 mg/dL.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant discrepancy between the two assessment tools with WHO/ISH risk chart recognizing higher proportions of patients having low cardiac risk than the UKPDS risk engine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

Management of Coronary Artery Disease in South Asian Populations: Why and How to Prevent and Treat Differently

The South Asian (SA) population constitutes one of the largest ethnic groups in the world. Several studies that compared host and migrant populations around the world indicate that SAs have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) than their native-born counterparts. Herein, we review the literature to address the role of the screening tools, scoring systems, and guidelines for primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention in these populations. Management based on screening for the CVD risk factors in a high-risk population such as SAs can improve health care outcomes. There are many scoring tools for calculating 10-year CVD risk; however, each scoring system has its limitations in this particular ethnicity. Further work is needed to establish a unique scoring and guidelines in SAs.

Relationship between different cardiovascular risk scores and measures of subclinical atherosclerosis in an Indian population

BACKGROUND

Relative accuracy of the various currently available cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment algorithms in Indian patients is not known.

METHODS

This study included 194 consecutive patients (mean age 49.6 ± 10.3 years, 84.5% males) attending a CV disease prevention clinic at a tertiary center in north India. Four risk assessment models [Framingham Risk score (RiskFRS), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (RiskACC/AHA), the 3rd iteration of Joint British Societies' risk calculator (RiskJBS) and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts (RiskWHO)] were applied. The estimated risk scores were correlated with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and coronary calcium score (CCS) using nonparametric statistics (Chi-square test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman rank correlation).

RESULTS

Overall, RiskACC/AHA and RiskWHO significantly underestimated CV risk as compared to RiskJBS and RiskFRS, with RiskJBS being the least likely to underestimate the risk (patients with coronary artery disease who were found to have ≥20% CV risk- 21.4% with RiskACC/AHA, 17.9% with RiskWHO, 41.4% with RiskFRS, and 58.6% with RiskJBS). Further, only RiskJBS and RiskFRS, but not RiskACC/AHA and RiskWHO, demonstrated consistent relationship with CIMT and CCS (Spearman rho 0.45 and 0.46 for RiskJBS and 0.39 and 0.36 for RiskFRS for CIMT and CCS respectively, all p values < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows that in Indian subjects RiskJBS appears to provide the most accurate estimation of CV risk. It least underestimates the risk and has the best correlation with CIMT and CCS. However, large-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.