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Bejon P, Agweyu A, Ochola-Oyier LI, Hamaluba M, Kamuya D, Kinyanjui S, Barasa E. Rethinking the evidence on COVID-19 in Africa. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2025:S1473-3099(25)00071-4. [PMID: 40194536 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00071-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2024] [Revised: 01/16/2025] [Accepted: 01/27/2025] [Indexed: 04/09/2025]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic was predicted to cause substantial mortality in Africa. However, some countries in Africa had a striking absence of overwhelmed hospitals and low reported mortality. The marked contrast with the overwhelmed hospitals and high mortality seen in Europe and other high-income settings was regarded as puzzling and a paradox. In this Review, we reflect on possible explanations for the paradox with particular reference to observations made on the ground in Kenya. The evidence is inconsistent with reduced viral transmission or poor surveillance as primary explanations for the discrepancy. Population age structure is an important but incomplete explanation of the epidemiology. Due to the high prevalence of asymptomatic infection, low mortality, and evidence of reduced inflammatory responses, we hypothesise that some populations in Africa might have reduced susceptibility to symptomatic COVID-19. The reduced inflammatory responses might result from immunoregulation or cross-reactive, pre-pandemic cellular immunity, although the evidence is not definitive. Local data are essential to develop public health policies that align with the reality on the ground rather than external perceptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Bejon
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Modernising Medical Microbiology, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Ambrose Agweyu
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and International Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - L Isabella Ochola-Oyier
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mainga Hamaluba
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dorcas Kamuya
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sam Kinyanjui
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Edwine Barasa
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographical Medicine Research (Coast), Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Lugano D, Kutima B, Kimani M, Sigilai A, Gitonga J, Karani A, Akech D, Karia B, Ziraba AK, Maina A, Lambisia A, Omuoyo D, Mugo D, Lucinde R, Owuor S, Konyino G, Newman J, Bailey D, Nduati E, Githinji G, Agoti CN, Bejon P, Scott JAG, Agweyu A, Kagucia W, Warimwe GM, Sande C, Ochola-Oyier LI, Nyagwange J. Evaluation of population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants, EG.5.1, FY.4, BA.2.86, JN.1, JN.1.4, and KP.3.1.1 using samples from two health demographic surveillance systems in Kenya. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:1474. [PMID: 39732637 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-10367-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2024] [Accepted: 12/17/2024] [Indexed: 12/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Increased immune evasion by emerging and highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is a key challenge to the control of COVID-19. The majority of these mutations mainly target the spike protein, allowing the new variants to escape the immunity previously raised by vaccination and/or infection by earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we investigated the neutralizing capacity of antibodies against emerging variants of interest circulating between May 2023 and October 2024 using sera from representative samples of the Kenyan population. From our genomics data, we identified the most prevalent Kenyan and global variants and performed pseudoviruses neutralization assays with the most recent SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our data show that antibodies from individuals in the general population in Kenya were less effective against the recent prevalent SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants (i.e. EG.5.1, FY.4, BA.2.86, JN.1, JN.1.4, and KP.3.1.1) compared to the ancestral wildtype strain. Although there was increased neutralization following multiple doses of vaccine, antibodies from > 40% of the vaccinated individuals did not neutralize the omicron variants, suggesting that individuals were susceptible to infection by these variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Doreen Lugano
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Bernadette Kutima
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Makobu Kimani
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Antipa Sigilai
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - John Gitonga
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Angela Karani
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Donald Akech
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Boniface Karia
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Abdhalah K Ziraba
- African Population and Health Research Center, APHRC Campus, Manga Close, Kitisuru Nairobi, P.O. Box 10787, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Angela Maina
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Arnold Lambisia
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | | | - Daisy Mugo
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Ruth Lucinde
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Sharon Owuor
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Gloria Konyino
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Joseph Newman
- The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Woking, Surrey, GU24 0NF, UK
| | - Dalan Bailey
- The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Woking, Surrey, GU24 0NF, UK
| | - Eunice Nduati
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - George Githinji
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Charles N Agoti
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Philip Bejon
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - J Anthony G Scott
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Ambrose Agweyu
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Wangeci Kagucia
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - George M Warimwe
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Charles Sande
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya
| | | | - James Nyagwange
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, P.O. Box 230, Kilifi, Kenya.
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Serwanga J, Kato L, Oluka GK, Ankunda V, Sembera J, Baine C, Kitabye I, Namuyanja A, Opio S, Katende JS, Ejou P, Kaleebu P. The single-dose Janssen Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine elicited robust and persistent anti-spike IgG antibody responses in a 12-month Ugandan cohort. Front Immunol 2024; 15:1384668. [PMID: 38779677 PMCID: PMC11109398 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2024.1384668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The study investigation examined the immune response to the Janssen Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine within a Ugandan cohort, specifically targeting antibodies directed against spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins. We aimed to examine the durability and robustness of the induced antibody response while also assessing occurrences of breakthrough infections and previous anti-Spike seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2. Methods The study included 319 specimens collected over 12 months from 60 vaccinees aged 18 to 64. Binding antibodies were quantified using a validated ELISA method to measure SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG, IgM, and IgA levels against the S and N proteins. Results The results showed that baseline seropositivity for S-IgG was high at 67%, increasing to 98% by day 14 and consistently stayed above 95% for up to 12 months. However, S-IgM responses remained suboptimal. A raised S-IgA seropositivity rate was seen that doubled from 40% at baseline to 86% just two weeks following the initial vaccine dose, indicating sustained and robust peripheral immunity. An increase in N-IgG levels at nine months post-vaccination suggested breakthrough infections in eight cases. Baseline cross-reactivity influenced spike-directed antibody responses, with individuals harbouring S-IgG antibodies showing notably higher responses. Discussion Robust and long lasting vaccine and infection-induced immune responses were observed, with significant implications for regions where administering subsequent doses poses logistical challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Serwanga
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Laban Kato
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Gerald Kevin Oluka
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Violet Ankunda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Jackson Sembera
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Claire Baine
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Isaac Kitabye
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Angela Namuyanja
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Solomon Opio
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Joseph Ssebwana Katende
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Peter Ejou
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - The COVID-19 Immunoprofiling Team
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Pontiano Kaleebu
- Department of Immunology, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
- Viral Pathogens Research Theme, Medical Research Council, Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Uganda Research Unit, Entebbe, Uganda
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Ioannidis JPA, Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG. Prepandemic cross-reactive humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 134:160-167. [PMID: 37327857 PMCID: PMC10266885 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.06.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Revised: 06/08/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the evidence on the presence of antibodies cross-reactive with SARS-CoV-2 antigens in prepandemic samples from African populations. METHODS We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating prepandemic African samples using pre-set assay-specific thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. RESULTS In total, 26 articles with 156 datasets were eligible, including 3437 positives among 29,923 measurements (11.5%) with large between-dataset heterogeneity. Positivity was similar for anti-nucleocapsid (14%) and anti-spike antibodies (11%), higher for anti-spike1 (23%), and lower for anti-receptor-binding domain antibodies (7%). Positivity was similar, on average, for immunoglobulin M and immunoglobulin G. Positivity was seen prominently in countries where malaria transmission occurs throughout and in datasets enriched in malaria cases (14%, 95% confidence interval, 12-15% vs 2%, 95% confidence interval 1-2% in other datasets). Substantial SARS-CoV-2 reactivity was seen in high malaria burden with or without high dengue burden (14% and 12%, respectively), and not without high malaria burden (2% and 0%, respectively). Lower SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity was seen in settings of high HIV seroprevalence. More sparse individual-level data showed associations of higher SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity with Plasmodium parasitemia and lower SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity with HIV seropositivity. CONCLUSION Prepandemic samples from Africa show high levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. At the country level, cross-reactivity tracks especially with malaria prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- John P A Ioannidis
- Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, USA.
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Lawal BJ, Gallagher KE, Kitonsa J, Tindanbil D, Kasonia K, Drammeh A, Lowe B, Mukadi-Bamuleka D, Patterson C, Greenwood B, Samai M, Leigh B, Tetteh KKA, Ruzagira E, Watson-Jones D, Kavunga-Membo H. Prevalence of immunoglobulin G and M to SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses in The Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, and Uganda: A longitudinal study. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 131:183-192. [PMID: 37001799 PMCID: PMC10060023 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.03.049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Revised: 03/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We assessed the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM against four endemic human coronaviruses and two SARS-CoV-2 antigens among vaccinated and unvaccinated staff at health care centers in Uganda, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. METHODS The government health facility staff who had patient contact in Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo), Kambia District (Sierra Leone), and Masaka District (Uganda) were enrolled. Questionnaires and blood samples were collected at three time points over 4 months. Blood samples were analyzed with the Luminex MAGPIXⓇ. RESULTS Among unvaccinated participants, the prevalence of IgG/IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain or nucleocapsid protein at enrollment was 70% in Goma (138 of 196), 89% in Kambia (112 of 126), and 89% in Masaka (190 of 213). The IgG responses against endemic human coronaviruses at baseline were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 sero-acquisition during follow-up. Among the vaccinated participants, those who had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM at baseline tended to have higher IgG responses to vaccination than those who were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative at baseline, controlling for the time of sample collection since vaccination. CONCLUSION The high levels of natural immunity and hybrid immunity should be incorporated into both vaccination policies and prediction models of the impact of subsequent waves of infection in these settings.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Katherine E Gallagher
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
| | | | - Daniel Tindanbil
- LSHTM-COMAHS Research Partnership, Kambia District, Sierra Leone
| | - Kambale Kasonia
- LSHTM-INRB Research Partnership, Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Abdoulie Drammeh
- LSHTM-COMAHS Research Partnership, Kambia District, Sierra Leone
| | - Brett Lowe
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Mukadi-Bamuleka
- Laboratoire Rodolphe Merieux-Institute National Research biomedical (INRB), Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Catriona Patterson
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | - Brian Greenwood
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | - Mohamed Samai
- University of Sierra Leone College of Medicine and Allied Health Sciences (COMAHS), Freetown, Sierra Leone
| | - Bailah Leigh
- University of Sierra Leone College of Medicine and Allied Health Sciences (COMAHS), Freetown, Sierra Leone
| | - Kevin K A Tetteh
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Deborah Watson-Jones
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom; Mwanza Intervention Trials Unit, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Hugo Kavunga-Membo
- Laboratoire Rodolphe Merieux-Institute National Research biomedical (INRB), Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo
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