Predicting in-hospital death among patients injured in traffic crashes in Saudi Arabia

Time-series projecting road traffic fatalities in Australia: Insights for targeted safety interventions

Despite substantial progress in road safety, road traffic fatalities (RTFs) continue to be a persistent issue in Australia. This study aims to forecast RTFs trends up to 2050 by analyzing factors such as geographic location, age, gender, speed limits, and time of occurrence. Utilizing historical data from 1989 to 2024, fatalities were categorized by road user type, demographics, and day of the week. The Facebook Prophet time series model, incorporating categorical variables like region, age, and speed limits, was employed to predict future trends. The analysis reveals significant regional disparities in fatality reduction rates, with some areas lagging others. Gender-specific forecasts indicate a sharper decline in male fatalities compared to females, while projections highlight persistent risks for older drivers. Additionally, highways with higher speed limits are expected to see a substantial decrease in fatalities. These insights emphasize the need for targeted interventions in areas with slower reductions and high-risk demographic groups, aiding policymakers in refining safety measures, enforcing speed limits, and enhancing public awareness campaigns.

Factors associated with the severity of road traffic injuries from emergency department based surveillance system in two Mexican cities

Background

Limited data from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the severity of road traffic injuries (RTIs) and their relation to different variables of interest are routinely obtained. Knowledge on this subject relies on evidence from high-income countries, which might not be the same as in LMICs. This information is greatly needed to advance and inform local and regional efforts towards the United Nations’ Decade of Action and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Methods

From May 2012 to November 2014, a RTI surveillance system was implemented in two referral hospitals in two Mexican cities, León and Guadalajara, with the objective of exploring the relationship between Injury Severity Score (ISS) and different sociodemographic characteristics of the injured as well as different variables related to the event and the environment. All individuals suffering RTIs who visited the Emergency Rooms (ER) were included after granting informed consent. A Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial Model was employed to explore the statistical association between ISS and variables of interest.

Results

3024 individuals participated in the study: 2185 (72.3%) patients from León and 839 patients (27.7%) from Guadalajara. Being male, in the 20–59 age-group, having less schooling, events occurring in Guadalajara, on Sundays, at night, and arriving at ER via public/private ambulance were all associated with an increased log count of ISS. Found a significant interaction effect (p-value< 0.05) between type of road user and alcohol intake six hours before the accident on severity of the injury (ISS). The use of illicit drugs, cellphones and safety devices during the event showed no association to ISS.

Conclusions

Our study contributes to the statistical analysis of ISS obtained through RTI hospital surveillance systems. Findings might facilitate the development and evaluation of focused interventions to reduce RTIs in vulnerable users, to enhance ER services and prehospital care, and to reduce drink driving.

A state-of-the-art review of factors that predict mortality among traumatic injury patients following a road traffic crash

BACKGROUND

Traffic related injuries are a major public health problem worldwide with millions of people dying every year. The objective of this state-of-the-art review was to identify the factors reported in the literature as being associated with mortality for trauma patients following road traffic crashes.

METHOD

A systematic search was undertaken of PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to identify articles published in the past two decades (2000-2020). Of 8257 records, 4507 remained for title, abstract and full text screening after duplicates were removed. The level of evidence of selected studies was assessed using The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) guideline.

RESULTS

This review included eighty primary research studies examining mortality risk factors following a road traffic crash. The study identified factors in five categories; (i) demographic factors; (ii) behavioural factors; (iii) crash characteristics; (iv) environmental and timing factors; (v) injury severity and pre-injury/condition. The primary studies are summarised in a matrix. Included studies included level II to level IV levels of evidence based on the NHMRC criteria.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that there are a large number of factors associated with increased risk of mortality following diverse types of traffic crashes. Understanding these wide-ranging factors can strengthen injury and mortality prevention by guiding decision makers about where to focus strategy implementation.

The prevalence of head and facial injuries among children in Saudi Arabia following road traffic crashes

BACKGROUND

Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are the leading cause of death among children in Saudi Arabia. Childhood injuries can be prevented or minimized if safety measures, such as car seats, are implemented. The literature on the epidemiology of head and facial injury among children is limited, which affects the ability to understand the extent of the burden and hinders investment in public health prevention.

OBJECTIVE

Describe the epidemiology of head and facial injuries among children admitted to the hospital following MVCs.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

SETTING

Five hospitals in several regions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We collected data on all patients ≤16 years old, who were admitted to the hospital following MVCs between 2016-2019. Differences in various characteristics like head injury status and age groups were compared.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Head and facial injuries.

SAMPLE SIZE

253 patients.

RESULTS

Of the injured population, 97 (38.3%) sustained a head injury, and 88 (34.8%) had a facial injury. Thirteen (9.1%) children were driving the car at the time of the crash. About half of the children were seated in the back (53.8%) without a seatbelt or safety seat.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of head and facial injuries is striking. In addition, the study revealed that driving among children is not uncommon, which warrants monitoring and implementing interventions. Improved documentation of restraint use and police enforcement of safety laws can play a significant role in reducing associated injuries. The study findings highlight the importance of combination or rear seating as well as age-appropriate restraint in order to reduce the likelihood of head or facial injuries among children.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective study using the electronic search system to identify patients, but may have missed cases that were not coded correctly. Large amount of missing data for some variables. Additionally, the analysis was limited to those admitted to the hospital.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Current trauma care system in Saudi Arabia: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Trauma is one of the leading causes of death worldwide with millions of people dying each year, particularly in low or middle-income countries. This paper describes and evaluates the current trauma system (TS) in Saudi Arabia (SA).

METHODS

A scoping literature review was performed, incorporating an extensive search of Medline and Embase databases for refereed literature, as well as a search of grey literature to locate unpublished articles or reports in English or Arabic. All publications were assessed against the World Health Organization (WHO) Trauma System Maturity Index (TSMI) and American College of Surgeon's (ACS) criteria.

RESULTS

Despite local injury prevention efforts, Motor Vehicle Crashes (MVC) remain the primary cause of injuries in SA. Prehospital trauma care in SA aligns with level III care as described in the WHO TSMI classification system, based on the presence of formal emergency medical services and universal access to care. With respect to the ACS classification, no clear written guidelines, either for field triage or trauma destination protocols such as trauma bypass, were identified in prehospital trauma care. The role of secondary and tertiary facilities in treating trauma patients is unclear, with no clear referral linkages, suggesting a level I to III grading of SA's trauma care facilities. Currently, there is no national or regional electronic trauma registry, no quality assurance program, and active involvement in research projects related to injuries is limited.

CONCLUSION

The current SA TS has strengths but there are key features missing in comparison to other systems globally. As MVCs remain a leading cause of death/ disability, efforts to reduce the prevalence and impact of MVC burden in SA through development of a stronger national TS are warranted.

Protocol for a feasibility exploratory multicentre study of factors influencing trauma patients' outcomes of traffic crashes in Saudi Arabia

INTRODUCTION

Road traffic injury is a leading cause of death for people of all ages. The burden of road traffic injuries is well established in developed countries. However, there has been limited investigation of the incidence and burden of road traffic injury in low/middle-income countries. With a proportionally high number of road users, there is a need to explore the factors in prehospital and hospital care in Saudi Arabia (SA) that are associated with mortality for adult trauma patients following road traffic crashes (RTCs). This paper outlines the method for the planned research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A feasibility exploratory multicentre study will be conducted at three purposefully selected hospitals with different trauma care resources in differing geographic locations of SA. The study sample will include all adult trauma patients who are involved in RTCs in SA and have been admitted to a study site in a 3-month period from May to July 2019. Data regarding the characteristics of the crashes and prehospital health care factors will be extracted from hospital databases where it is available. Information will be collected from patients or carers and hospital records in the two sites that do not have a registry. Patient status at 30 days post-injury, particularly mortality, will be assessed through hospital records. The relative contribution of a range of factors to predicting mortality will be explored using logistic regression analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board Committee at King Saud Medical City (H-01-R-053), the General Department of Research and Studies at the Ministry of Health in SA (1440-1249939) and (1440-1398648), and the La Trobe University Human Research Ethics Committee (HEC19095). The results will be reported in a thesis and in peer-reviewed journal articles and conference presentations.

Injuries following motorcycle crashes at a level-1 trauma center in Riyadh

BACKGROUND

Motor vehicle crashes are the third leading cause of death in Saudi Arabia. Motorcycle riders, in particular, are considered more vulnerable than occupants, yet there are no previous studies that have examined the epidemiology of their injuries and outcomes in the country. Better understanding is needed to inform policymakers and guide future prevention programs.

OBJECTIVE

Describe patterns of injury among conscious and unconscious patients injured in motorcycle crashes.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

SETTINGS

Level 1 trauma center in Riyadh.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included all patients involved in motorcycle crashes who were admitted between 2001 and 2017. Medical records were reviewed, and data about injury characteristics, outcomes and healthcare utilization were ascertained.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Injury site and mortality rate.

SAMPLE SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS

572 patients included 488 males (85.3%) and 232 <18 years of age (40.5%), mean (SD) age 21.1 (11.6) years.

RESULTS

About 3% of patients died either before or after admission. Extremity injuries (356, 62.2%) were most common followed by head injuries (229, 40%). Fifty-six (9%) suffered amputation, mostly to a lower limb.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the significant burden of motorcycle-related injuries on population health of Saudi Arabia. The number of amputations due to motorcycle injuries is striking. Therefore, we need to increase enforcement of safety measures during recreational use of motorcycles and to raise awareness about the dangers of motorcycle crashes to improve traffic safety and ultimately population health.

LIMITATIONS

The study was conducted at a single hospital which may affect the generalizability of the data to the Saudi population.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Long-term disabilities after traumatic head injury (THI): a retrospective analysis from a large level-I trauma center in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Traumatic head injuries (THI) are a critical public health problem worldwide, with more than 10 million individuals affected every year. In Saudi Arabia (SA), the burden of THI is unknown even though injury is the leading cause of death and a major cause of disability. Therefore, we aim to estimate the prevalence of long-term of disabilities among survivors of THI treated at a large level-I trauma center in Riyadh.

METHODS

The study included 258 patients, who were hospitalized due to a non-fatal THI between years 2005-2014. Patients (age = 16-60 years) were contacted via the phone and information about their Activity of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) was ascertained. Univariate analyses were performed to examine patients' characteristics and to estimate the prevalence of any disability. Logistic regression was used to evaluate independent predictors of long-term disability.

RESULTS

Respondents were relatively young (mean age = 24.8; SD = 9.8), predominantly males (92.7%) and the majority sustained THI following traffic crashes (91.4%). The average time since the injury was 6.8 years (range = 3-12, SD = 2.6). Close to third of the sample (32.5%) reported at least some limitations in ADL or IADL. Regression analysis suggests that a one-unit increase in Revised Trauma Scale (RTS) was associated with 31% lower odds of disability adjusting for other covariates. While responders with a below high school education were 4.7 times more likely to report a disability than those with at least a college degree (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

THI was associated with significant limitations in various aspects of everyday life. The magnitude and impact of THI in Saudi Arabia requires public health measures to prevent these injuries and to improve their health outcomes. Advocates may use these findings to educate the public about secondary and tertiary prevention and elicit support from policymakers to facilitate interventions toward reducing THI's associated disabilities.

Comparison of trauma care systems in Asian countries: A systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to compare the trauma care systems in Asian countries.

METHODS

Asian countries were categorised into three groups; 'lower middle-income country', 'upper middle-income country' and 'high-income country'. The Medline/PubMed database was searched for articles published from January 2005 to December 2014 using relevant key words. Articles were excluded if they examined a specific injury mechanism, referred to a specific age group, and/or did not have full text available. We extracted information and variables on pre-hospital and hospital care factors, and regionalised system factors and compared them across countries.

RESULTS

A total of 46 articles were identified from 13 countries, including Pakistan, India, Vietnam and Indonesia from lower middle-income countries; the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand, China, Malaysia from upper middle-income countries; and Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore from high-income countries. Trauma patients were transported via various methods. In six of the 13 countries, less than 20% of trauma patients were transported by ambulance. Pre-hospital trauma teams primarily comprised emergency medical technicians and paramedics, except in Thailand and China, where they included mainly physicians. In Iran, Pakistan and Vietnam, the proportion of patients who died before reaching hospital exceeded 50%. In only three of the 13 countries was it reported that trauma surgeons were available. In only five of the 13 countries was there a nationwide trauma registry.

CONCLUSION

Trauma care systems were poorly developed and unorganised in most of the selected 13 Asian countries, with the exception of a few highly developed countries.

Outcomes of road traffic injuries before and after the implementation of a camera ticketing system: a retrospective study from a large trauma center in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the third leading cause of death in Saudi Arabia. Because speed is a major risk factor for severe crash-related injuries, a camera ticketing system was implemented countrywide in mid-2010 by the traffic police in an effort to improve traffic safety. There are no published studies on the effects of the system in Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVE

To examine injury severity and associated mortality at a large trauma center before and after the implementation of the ticketing system.

DESIGN

Retrospective, analytical.

SETTING

Trauma center of a tertiary care center in Riyadh.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included all trauma registry patients seen in the emergency department for a crash-related injury (automobile occupants, pedestrians, or motorcyclists) between January 2005 and December 2014. Associations with outcome measures were assessed by univariate and multivariate methods.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Injury severity score (ISS), Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and mortality.

RESULTS

The study included all trauma registry patients seen in the emergency department for a crash-related injury. All health outcomes improved in the period following implementation of the ticketing system. Following implementation, ISS scores decreased (-3.1, 95% CI -4.6, -1.6) and GCS increased (0.47, 95% CI 0.08, 0.87) after adjusting for other covariates. The odds of death were 46% lower following implementation than before implementation. When the data were log-transformed to account for skewed data distributions, the results remained statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests positive health implications following the implementation of the camera ticketing system. Further investment in public health interventions is warranted to reduce preventable RTIs.

LIMITATIONS

The study findings represent a trauma center at a single hospital in Riyadh, which may not generalize to the Saudi population.

Validation of a novel prediction model for early mortality in adult trauma patients in three public university hospitals in urban India

BACKGROUND

Trauma is one of the top threats to population health globally. Several prediction models have been developed to supplement clinical judgment in trauma care. Whereas most models have been developed in high-income countries the majority of trauma deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Almost 20 % of all global trauma deaths occur in India alone. The aim of this study was to validate a basic clinical prediction model for use in urban Indian university hospitals, and to compare it with existing models for use in early trauma care.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in three hospitals across urban India. The model we aimed to validate included systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale. We compared this model with three additional models, which all have been designed for use in bedside trauma care, and two single variable models based on systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale respectively. The outcome was early mortality, defined as death within 24 h from the time when vital signs were first measured. We compared the models in terms of discrimination, calibration, and potential clinical consequences using decision curve analysis. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing data. Performance measures are reported using their median and inter-quartile range (IQR) across imputed datasets.

RESULTS

We analysed 4440 patients, out of which 1629 were used as an updating sample and 2811 as a validation sample. We found no evidence that the basic model that included only systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale had worse discrimination or potential clinical consequences compared to the other models. A model that also included heart had better calibration. For the model with systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale the discrimination in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.846 (IQR 0.841-0.849). Calibration measured by estimating a calibration slope was 1.183 (IQR 1.168-1.202). Decision curve analysis revealed that using this model could potentially result in 45 fewer unnecessary surveys per 100 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A basic clinical prediction model with only two parameters may prove to be a feasible alternative to more complex models in contexts such as the Indian public university hospitals studied here. We present a colour-coded chart to further simplify the decision making in early trauma care.

In-hospital mortality among patients injured in motor vehicle crashes in a Saudi Arabian hospital relative to large U.S. trauma centers

Background

Traffic-related fatalities are a leading cause of premature death worldwide. According to the 2012 report the Global Burden of Disease 2010, traffic injuries ranked 8th as a cause of death in 2010, compared to 10th in 1990. Saudi Arabia is estimated to have an overall traffic fatality rate more than double that of the U.S., but it is unknown whether mortality differences also exist for injured patients seeking medical care. We aim to compare in-hospital mortality between Saudi Arabia and the United States, adjusting for severity and demographic variables.

Methods

The analysis included 485,611 patients from the U.S. National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and 5,290 patients from a trauma registry at King Abdulaziz Medical City (KAMC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. For comparability, we restricted our sample to NTDB data from level-I public trauma centers (≥400 beds) in the U.S. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of setting (KAMC vs. NTDB) on in-hospital mortality after adjusting for age, sex, Triage-Revised Scale (T-RTS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), mechanism of injury, hypotension, surgery and head injuries. Interactions between setting and ISS, and predictors were also evaluated.

Results

Injured patients in the Saudi registry were more likely to be males, and younger than those from the NTDB. Patients at the Saudi hospital were at higher risk of in-hospital death than their U.S. counterparts. In the highest severity group (ISSs, 25–75), the odds ratio of in-hospital death in KAMC versus NTDB was 5.0 (95% CI 4.3-5.8). There were no differences in mortality between KAMC and NTDB among patients from lower ISS groups (ISSs, 1–8, 9–15, and 16–24).

Conclusions

Patients who are severely injured following traffic crash injuries in Saudi Arabia are significantly more likely to die in the hospital than comparable patients admitted to large U.S. trauma centers. Further research is needed to identify reasons for this disparity and strategies for improving the care of patients severely injured in traffic crashes in Saudi Arabia.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40621-014-0021-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.