Secular trends in cognitive test performance: Swedish conscript data 1970–1993

Increasing IQ Test Scores and Decreasing g: The Flynn Effect and Decreasing Positive Manifold Strengths in Austria (2005-2018)

After almost a century of global generational IQ test score gains, the Flynn effect has, in the past decades, been observed to show stagnation and reversals in several countries. Tentative evidence from academic achievement data has suggested that these trajectory changes may be rooted in a decreasing strength of the positive manifold of intelligence due to increasing ability differentiation and specialization in the general population. Here, we provide direct evidence for generational IQ test score and positive manifold strength changes based on IQ test standardization data from 1392 Austrian residents between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses revealed positive Flynn effects across all domains of the IQ test (Cohen's d from 0.21 to 0.91) but a trend toward decreasing strength in the positive manifold of intelligence (R2 from .908 to .892), though these changes were not statistically significant. Our results are consistent with the idea that increasingly inconsistent Flynn effect trajectories may be attributed to increasing ability differentiation and specialization in the general population over time.

Secular trends in physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence in children and adolescents born between 1978 and 1993

Introduction

Human physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence have been documented as increasing for over 100 years. Comparing the timing of secular trends in these characteristics could provide insight into what underlies them. However, they have not been examined in parallel in the same cohort during different developmental phases. Thus, the aim of this study was to examine secular trends in body height, weight, and head circumference, biological maturation, and intelligence by assessing these traits concurrently at four points during development: the ages of 4, 9, 14, and 18 years.

Methods

Data derived from growth measures, bone age as an indicator of biological maturation, and full-scale intelligence tests were drawn from 236 participants of the Zurich Longitudinal Studies born between 1978 and 1993. In addition, birth weight was analyzed as an indicator of prenatal conditions.

Results

Secular trends for height and weight at 4 years were positive (0.35 SD increase per decade for height and an insignificant 0.27 SD increase per decade for weight) and remained similar at 9 and 14 years (height: 0.46 SD and 0.38 SD increase per decade; weight: 0.51 SD and 0.51 SD increase per decade, respectively) as well as for weight at age 18 years (0.36 SD increase per decade). In contrast, the secular trend in height was no longer evident at age 18 years (0.09 SD increase per decade). Secular trends for biological maturation at 14 years were similar to those of height and weight (0.54 SD increase per decade). At 18 years, the trend was non-significant (0.38 SD increase per decade). For intelligence, a positive secular trend was found at 4 years (0.54 SD increase per decade). In contrast, negative secular trends were observed at 9 years (0.54 SD decrease per decade) and 14 years (0.60 SD decrease per decade). No secular trend was observed at any of the four ages for head circumference (0.01, 0.24, 0.17, and - 0.04 SD increase per decade, respectively) and birth weight (0.01 SD decrease per decade).

Discussion

The different patterns of changes in physical growth, biological maturation, and intelligence between 1978 and 1993 indicate that distinct mechanisms underlie these secular trends.

Systemic inflammation measured by erythrocyte sedimentation rate and cognitive function among young men in Sweden: A within-sibling analysis

This study assesses the extent to which the association between erythrocyte sedimentation rate, a marker of inflammation, and cognitive function is explained by shared familial factors using within-sibling analyses. Men who were born in Sweden between 1950 and 1965 and recorded in the Swedish Military Conscription Register between 1969 and 1983 were included (N = 632,396). Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and cognitive function were measured at the conscription assessment (median age = 18.3 years, with a range from 15.5 to 28.5 years). Conventional linear regression and multilevel linear regression with a hybrid modeling approach were used, with the latter to obtain within-effect estimation in which unmeasured familial confounding shared by siblings was controlled for. We found that the association between erythrocyte sedimentation rate and cognitive function at conscription assessment was partly accounted for by, but remained independent of, shared familial factors.

Reduced reproductive success is associated with selective constraint on human genes

Genome-wide sequencing of human populations has revealed substantial variation among genes in the intensity of purifying selection acting on damaging genetic variants¹. Although genes under the strongest selective constraint are highly enriched for associations with Mendelian disorders, most of these genes are not associated with disease and therefore the nature of the selection acting on them is not known². Here we show that genetic variants that damage these genes are associated with markedly reduced reproductive success, primarily owing to increased childlessness, with a stronger effect in males than in females. We present evidence that increased childlessness is probably mediated by genetically associated cognitive and behavioural traits, which may mean that male carriers are less likely to find reproductive partners. This reduction in reproductive success may account for 20% of purifying selection against heterozygous variants that ablate protein-coding genes. Although this genetic association may only account for a very minor fraction of the overall likelihood of being childless (less than 1%), especially when compared to more influential sociodemographic factors, it may influence how genes evolve over time.

Urban scaling and the regional divide

Superlinear growth in cities has been explained as an emergent consequence of increased social interactions in dense urban environments. Using geocoded microdata from Swedish population registers, we remove population composition effects from the scaling relation of wage income to test how much of the previously reported superlinear scaling is truly attributable to increased social interconnectivity in cities. The Swedish data confirm the previously reported scaling relations on the aggregate level, but they provide better information on the micromechanisms responsible for them. We find that the standard interpretation of urban scaling is incomplete as social interactions only explain about half of the scaling parameter of wage income and that scaling relations substantively reflect differences in cities' sociodemographic composition. Those differences are generated by selective migration of highly productive individuals into larger cities. Big cities grow through their attraction of talent from their hinterlands and the already-privileged benefit disproportionally from urban agglomeration.

Better Cognition in New Birth Cohorts of 70 Year Olds, But Greater Decline Thereafter

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate birth cohort differences in level of cognition and rate of change in old age.

METHODS

Data were drawn from three population-based Swedish samples including age-homogenous cohorts born 1901/02, 1906/07, and 1930, and measured on the same cognitive tests at ages 70, 75, and 79 as part of the Gerontological and Geriatric Populations Studies in Gothenburg (H70). We fitted growth curve models to the data using a Bayesian framework and derived estimates and inferences from the marginal posterior distributions.

RESULTS

We found moderate to large birth cohort effects in level of performance on all cognitive outcomes. Later born cohorts, however, showed steeper linear rate of decline on reasoning, spatial ability, and perceptual- and motor-speed, but not on picture recognition memory and verbal ability.

DISCUSSION

These findings provide strong evidence for substantial birth cohort effects in cognition in older ages and emphasize the importance of life long environmental factors in shaping cognitive aging trajectories. Inferences from cognitive testing, and standardization of test scores, in elderly populations must take into account the substantial birth cohort differences.

Secular Slowing of Auditory Simple Reaction Time in Sweden (1959-1985)

There are indications that simple reaction time might have slowed in Western populations, based on both cohort- and multi-study comparisons. A possible limitation of the latter method in particular is measurement error stemming from methods variance, which results from the fact that instruments and experimental conditions change over time and between studies. We therefore set out to measure the simple auditory reaction time (SRT) of 7,081 individuals (2,997 males and 4,084 females) born in Sweden 1959-1985 (subjects were aged between 27 and 54 years at time of measurement). Depending on age cut-offs and adjustment for aging related slowing of SRT, the data indicate that SRT has increased by between 3 and 16 ms in the 27 birth years covered in the present sample. This slowing is unlikely to be explained by attrition, which was evaluated by comparing the general intelligence × birth-year interactions and standard deviations for both male participants and dropouts, utilizing military conscript cognitive ability data. The present result is consistent with previous studies employing alternative methods, and may indicate the operation of several synergistic factors, such as recent micro-evolutionary trends favoring lower g in Sweden and the effects of industrially produced neurotoxic substances on peripheral nerve conduction velocity.

IQ and level of alcohol consumption—findings from a national survey of Swedish conscripts

BACKGROUND

Studies of the association between IQ and alcohol consumption have shown conflicting results. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between IQ test results and alcohol consumption, measured as both total alcohol intake and pattern of alcohol use.

METHODS

The study population consists of 49,321 Swedish males born 1949 to 1951 who were conscripted for Swedish military service 1969 to 1970. IQ test results were available from tests performed at conscription. Questionnaires performed at conscription provided data on total alcohol intake (consumed grams of alcohol/wk) and pattern of drinking. Multinomial and binomial logistic regressions were performed on the cross-sectional data to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Adjustments were made for socioeconomic position as a child, psychiatric symptoms and emotional stability, and father's alcohol habits.

RESULTS

We found an increased OR of 1.20 (1.17 to 1.23) for every step decrease on the stanine scale to be a high consumer versus a light consumer of alcohol. For binge drinking, an increased OR of 1.09 (95% CI = 1.08 to 1.11) was estimated for every step decrease on the stanine scale. Adjustment for confounders attenuated the associations. Also, IQ in adolescence was found to be inversely associated with moderate/high alcohol consumption measured in middle age.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that lower results on IQ tests are associated with higher consumption of alcohol measured in terms of both total alcohol intake and binge drinking in Swedish adolescent men.

Low IQ has become less important as a risk factor for early disability pension. A longitudinal population-based study across two decades among Swedish men

BACKGROUND

Low IQ has been shown to be an important risk factor for disability pension (DP) but whether the importance has changed over time remains unclear. It can be hypothesised that IQ has become more important for DP over time in parallel with a more demanding working life. The aim of this study was to investigate the relative risk of low IQ on the risk of DP before age 30 between 1971 and 2006.

METHODS

This study covered the entire Swedish male population born between 1951 and 1976, eligible for military conscription. Information about the study subjects was obtained by linkage of national registers. Associations between IQ and DP over time were analysed by descriptive measures (mean values, proportions, etc) and by Cox proportional hazards regressions. Analyses were adjusted for educational level.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 1 229 346 men. The proportion that received DP before the age of 30 increased over time, from 0.68% in the cohort born between 1951 and 1955 to 0.95% in the cohort born between 1971 and 1976. The relative risk of low IQ (adjusted for education) in relation to high IQ decreased from 5.68 (95% CI 4.71 to 6.85) in the cohort born between 1951 and 1955 to 2.62 (95% CI 2.25 to 3.05) in the cohort born between 1971 and 1976.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results gave no support to the idea that the importance of low IQ for the risk of DP has increased in parallel with increasing demands in working life. In fact, low IQ has become less important as a risk factor for DP compared with high IQ between the early 1970s and 1990s. An increased educational level over the same time period is likely to be part of the explanation.

The changing face of cognitive gender differences in Europe

Cognitive gender differences and the reasons for their origins have fascinated researchers for decades. Using nationally representative data to investigate gender differences in cognitive performance in middle-aged and older populations across Europe, we show that the magnitude of these differences varies systematically across cognitive tasks, birth cohorts, and regions, but also that the living conditions and educational opportunities individuals are exposed to during their formative years are related to their later cognitive performance. Specifically, we demonstrate that improved living conditions and less gender-restricted educational opportunities are associated with increased gender differences favoring women in some cognitive functions (i.e., episodic memory) and decreases (i.e., numeracy) or elimination of differences in other cognitive abilities (i.e., category fluency). Our results suggest that these changes take place due to a general increase in women's cognitive performance over time, associated with societal improvements in living conditions and educational opportunities.