Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

From Descriptive to Prescriptive Analytics: Turkish Airlines Case Study

Recent years, evolving technologies have increased importance of data analytics and have extended the potential of using data-driven for decision-making process in different sectors as it has also been shown in civil aviation. The aviation industry supports $2.7 trillion (3.5%) of the world’s GDP thus, it has always been seen to have an inherently strategic role. Propose of this study is an integrated model that combines descriptive analytics (multidimensional analytics) predictive analytics (data mining and more) and prescriptive analytics (MCDM and DEMATEL) in order to extract the critical factors for the improvement of airline baggage optimizations. The data has taken from Turkish Airlines which is one of the biggest 10 airlines in terms of the passenger number. Descriptive analytics results have set a precedent implication of multidimensional reports for service sector. In addition, rules that arise as outcomes of predictive analytics have really significant knowledge for marketing and planning department in civil aviation. Furthermore, they will help to solve some optimization problem in air transportation sector. Owing to prescriptive analytics, displayed results supported by the MCDM and DEMATEL methods. Therefore, all stages of the analytics have been shown step by step on the real-world data implementation.

A data-driven analysis of the aviation recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic

In Summer 2022, after a lean COVID-19 spell of almost three years, many airlines reported profits and some airlines even outperformed their pre-pandemic records. In context of the perceived recovery, it is interesting to understand how different markets have gone through the pandemic challenges. In this study, we perform a spatial and temporal dissection of the recovery process the global aviation system went through since May 2020. At the heart of this study, we investigate the patterns underlying market entry decisions during the recovery phase. We identify a rather heterogeneous type of recovery as well as its underlying drivers. We believe that our work is a timely contribution to the research on COVID-19 and aviation, complementary to the existing studies in the literature.

The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised air transport stakeholders' concerns about the state of the market, the potential timing of recovery, and recouping long-haul traffic. Passengers' travel confidence must be restored, and air travel safety awareness raised. This paper estimates the immediate and long-term effects of COVID-19 on air transport markets and forecasts timescales for recovery of the markets for domestic and international flights in nine African countries. Intervention analysis and SARIMAX are employed for the analysis, using monthly time-series data from August 2003 to December 2021. The empirical results show that air transport is significantly elastic to the pandemic. It is forecast that air transport recovery may take around 28 months for domestic flights and 34 months for international flights, starting from 2020. The simulation analysis suggests that passenger flights may rebound to pre-crisis levels between 2022 and 2023. In general, the pandemic-induced fluctuations in the aviation market and the nature of the rebound may be considered to be part of a cyclical process rather than a structural change.

A very British state capitalism: Variegation, political connections and bailouts during the COVID-19 crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in governments playing increasingly prominent roles as active economic agents. However, state capitalism does not necessarily serve broad developmental purposes, and rather can be directed to supporting sectional and private interests. As the literature on variegated capitalism alerts us, governments and other actors regularly devise fixes in response to a systemic crisis, but the focus, scale, and scope of the interventions vary considerably, according to the constellation of interests. Rapid progress with vaccines notwithstanding, the UK government's response to COVID-19 has been associated with much controversy, not only because of an extraordinarily high death rate, but also because of allegations of cronyism around the granting of government contracts and bailouts. We focus on the latter, investigating more closely who got bailed out. We find that badly affected sectors (e.g. hospitality, transportation) and larger employers were more likely to get bailouts. However, the latter also favored the politically influential and those who had run up debt profligately. Although, as with state capitalism, crony capitalism is most often associated with emerging markets, we conclude that the two have coalesced into a peculiarly British variety, but one that has some common features with other major liberal markets. This might suggest that the eco-systemic dominance of the latter is coming to an end, or, at the least, that this model is drifting towards one that assumes many of the features commonly associated with developing nations.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Sustainable Success of Airlines During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the risk of financial distress, bankruptcy, or both, in the airline industry. Whether airlines can survive or not during and/or after the pandemic is closely related to their decisions and actions which will enable their success by increasing their resilience. In crisis periods such as COVID-19, the decisions taken by airlines are strategically important for achieving sustainable success. Thus, it is critical to understand which factors are more important for airlines to shape their actions and make correct decisions. This paper investigates the sustainable success factors on which airlines should focus to provide resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It provides a robust model using the interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IT2FAHP) and interval type-2 fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (IT2FDEMATEL) to identify and rank success factors. The findings indicate that financial and operational factors are extremely important to ensure resilience for airlines. In addition, the results of the study reveal that operational factors and information sharing factors have an impact on financial factors and customer satisfaction.

Evaluating the Impact of the Pandemic Crisis on the Aviation Industry

This paper investigates the intellectual structure of the literature addressing "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry" through a bibliometric approach to the literature from 1991 to 2021. The final count of 856 publications was collected from Web of Science and analyzed by CiteSpace (version 5.8.R1) and VOS Viewer. Visualization tools are used to perform the co-citation, co-occurrence, and thematic-based cluster analysis. The results highlight the most prominent nodes (articles, authors, journals, countries, and institutions) within the literature on "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry." Furthermore, this study conceptualizes and compares the growth of literature before theCOVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 ("hotspot") era. The conclusion is that the aviation industry is an engine for global economics on the road to recovery from COVID-19, in which soft (human) resources can play an integral part.

The effect of government support on Bureaucracy, COVID-19 resilience and export intensity: Evidence from North Africa

The literature on the imperativeness of government support for firm survival since the onset of COVID-19 is vast, but scholars have scarcely considered the impact of such assistance on managers' time, nor the extent to which support measures induce resilience and export activity. Accordingly, this study assesses the impact of government support on (1) bureaucracy and (2) resilience using data from 535 Moroccan SMEs. It further evaluates the influence of resilience on direct versus indirect exports, and espouses the institutional voids, resource-based and strategy-creation view to explain the associations through a contingency lens. The results demonstrate that (1) government support increases bureaucracy which, (2) surprisingly triggers and enhances resilience. Furthermore, (3) resilience has a positive impact on direct exports but (4) adversely affects indirect exports. Theoretically, the findings acquiesce extant calls for measurement specificity in export performance. Practically, stakeholders' attention is drawn to the value of managers' time well spent.

U.S. network and low-cost carriers' performance in response to COVID-19: Strictness of government policies and passengers' panic

Coronavirus outbreak has been highly disruptive for aviation sector. There is strong correlation between COVID-19 related news, volatility in transportation, low confidence in travel safety, and uncertainty in this era. In this research, we study and distinguish the COVID-19's impact on U.S. airlines' performance. The network and low-cost carriers responded differently to it in terms of capacity reduction, market share reduction, scheduled flights reduction, flight cancellations, and service quality in the year 2020. We illustrate low-cost carrier had higher efficiency compared to network ones during pandemic by applying Network Data Envelopment Analysis. Furthermore, the effects of two key factors that emerge from COVID-19, the government's stringency actions and passengers' panic, on U.S. airlines efficiency are studied. Our analysis demonstrate that the negative effect is more significant for passengers' panic than it is for governments' stringency measures. In addition, we show that passengers' panic has more impact on the efficiency of network carriers compared to low-cost carrier.

Recovery of Chinese low-cost carriers after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic

This study conducts a detailed analysis of the response of China's low-cost carriers (LCCs) to the threats posed by the pandemic from a route network perspective, aiming to explore the resilience of LCCs and Chinese airlines. Using geographic visualization and network analysis, we evaluate and compare the network connectivity of each Chinese LCC to see the change patterns, then elaborate on the network connection of Spring Airlines. The major results are: the LCC sector has not recovered, but some of them exceed the pre-pandemic levels in a less deregulated environment; different LCCs show different recovery patterns; Spring Airlines outperforms the other four LCCs in terms of network connectivity. The recovery process is supported by various external factors, such as the reduction of new confirmed COVID-19 local cases and international flights, the re-open of inter-provincial tour groups and tourism demand, the nationwide rebound activities promoted by the central government, and the supporting policies, especially new slot allocation processes issued by CAAC. The case study further indicates the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) and regional subsidy measures on the tactical actions of Springs in route planning. This paper serves as a referential case for the LCCs worldwide and has good application for the recovery of other LCCs in other countries. Moreover, the study conducted in this time window offers a chance to assess the development of Chinese airlines in a not fully deregulated aviation environment. It contributes to the debate on the theory of air network resilience.

Airline stock markets reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak and vaccines: An event study

This paper examines the short-term market reaction of the airline industry to the declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic and to the announcements of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. Using an event study, we observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction to the announcement of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. In contrast, we find a positive impact on the stock market due to the announcements of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in the US. These results are consistent with the investor sentiment hypothesis and the asset-pricing perspective. The empirical results also show a higher stock market reaction to the announcement of the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in the US compared to the announcements of the effectiveness of subsequent vaccines. This result is explained by the innovation race competition effect and the greater reduction in investor uncertainty levels. These reactions were reinforced or mitigated by firm-specific characteristics such as liquidity, size, leverage, ownership concentration, state control and business model (i.e., low-cost versus full-service).

Examining COVID-19-triggered changes in spatial connectivity patterns in the European air transport network up to June 2021

The integrity of international supply chain operations heavily relies on air transport services to facilitate the movement of goods and enable human interactions between its stakeholders. With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe around March 2020, air transport networks have been subject to profound alterations. Although the link between variations in air transport service levels and changes in user costs for network-wide travel has been analysed extensively, few studies have examined the extent to which severe network shrinkage events lead to a reduction in network connectivity, which is therefore difficult to predict. This paper investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic has structurally altered the European air transport network in 2020/21 and how these changes have deteriorated users' ease when utilising network-wide air transport services. To do this, the paper estimates the change in average quickest path length at the airport level during different stages of this period. Results indicate there is strong heterogeneity in airports' susceptibility to pandemic-induced network changes, with both regional variations and variations in the airline type serving individual airports. Furthermore, topological features of individual airports are found to determine airport susceptibility. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for locational decisions in supply chain designs.

COVID-19's impact on visitation behavior to US national parks from communities of color: evidence from mobile phone data

The widespread COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally changed many people's ways of life. With the necessity of social distancing and lock downs across the United States, evidence shows more people engage in outdoor activities. With the utilization of location-based service (LBS) data, we seek to explore how visitation patterns to national parks changed among communities of color during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that visitation rates to national parks located closer than 347 km to individuals have increased amidst the pandemic, but the converse was demonstrated amongst parks located further than 347 km from individuals. More importantly, COVID-19 has adversely impacted visitation figures amongst non-white and Native American communities, with visitation volumes declining if these communities are situated further from national parks. Our results show disproportionately low-representations amongst national park visitors from these communities of color. African American communities display a particularly concerning trend whereby their visitation to national parks is substantially lower amongst communities closer to national parks.

Health risks of airplane boarding methods with apron buses when some passengers disregard safe social distancing

Many airlines instituted social distancing practices to keep passengers safe during the pandemic. The practices include keeping the middle seats empty, reducing the number of passengers taking an apron bus from the terminal to the airplane, and prescribing that passengers maintain 1 m social distance of separation from other passengers in the aisle while advancing to their seats. However, not all passengers comply with a prescribed 1 m aisle social distance. Through agent-based simulations of passenger boarding when apron buses are used, we examine boarding policies adapted for the pandemic when the level of passenger compliance varies. To compare policies, we consider the duration of time that passengers are too close to other passengers while walking or standing in the aisle. We consider other health metrics from previous research and the time to complete boarding of the airplane. We find that the WilMA–Spread and Reverse-pyramid–Spread boarding methods provide favorable outcomes. Airlines should use WilMA–Spread if their primary concern is the risk to passengers while walking down the aisle and Reverse-pyramid–Spread if they want faster times to complete boarding of the airplane and reduced risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers. The level of the passengers’ non-compliance with the prescribed aisle social distance can impact a health metric by up to 6.75%—depending on the boarding method and metric. However, non-compliance reduces the time to complete boarding of the airplane by up to 38.8% even though it increases the average time an individual passenger spends boarding.

Application of Fuzzy-Based Support Vector Regression to Forecast of International Airport Freight Volumes

As freight volumes increase, airports are likely to require additional infrastructure development, increased air services, and expanded facilities. Prediction of freight volumes could ensure effective investment. Among the computational intelligence models, support vector regression (SVR) has become the dominant modeling paradigm. In this study, a fuzzy-based SVR (FSVR) model was used to solve the freight volume prediction problem in international airports. The FSVR model can use a fuzzy time series of historical traffic changes for predictions. A fuzzy classification algorithm was used for elements of similar levels in the time series to appropriately divide traffic changes into fuzzy sets, generate membership function values, and establish a fuzzy relationship to produce a fuzzy interpolation with a minimal error. A comparison of the FSVR model with other models revealed that the FSVR model had the lowest mean absolute percentage error (all < 2.5%), mean absolute error, and root mean square error for all types of traffic at all the analyzed airports. Fuzzy sets can handle uncertainty and imprecision in time series. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the entire time series model is improved by taking advantage of SVR and fuzzy sets. By using the highly accurate FSVR model to predict the future growth of air freight volume, airport management could analyze their existing facilities and service capacity to identify operational bottlenecks and plan future development. The FSVR model is the most accurate forecasting model for air traffic forecasting.

Exploring the co-movements between COVID-19 pandemic and international air traffic: A global perspective based on wavelet analysis

The travel and tourism industry was one of the fastest-growing industries before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, to avoid COVID-19 spread, the government authorities imposed strict lockdown and international border restrictions except for some emergency international flights that badly hit the travel and tourism industry. The study explores the nexus between international air departures and the COVID-19 pandemic in this strain. We use a novel wavelet coherence approach to dissect the lead and lag relationships between international flight departures and COVID-19 deaths from January 2020 to September 2020 (COVID-19 first wave period). The results reveal that international flights cause the spread of COVID-19 spread during May 2020 to June 2020 worldwide. The overall findings suggest asymmetries between daily international flight departures and COVID-19 deaths globally at different time-frequency periods due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The study will be conducive for the policymakers to control the upsurge of COVID-19 spread worldwide.

Visualizing the historical COVID-19 shock in the US airline industry: A Data Mining approach for dynamic market surveillance

One of the purposes of Artificial Intelligence tools is to ease the analysis of large amounts of data. In order to support the strategic decision-making process of the airlines, this paper proposes a Data Mining approach (focused on visualization) with the objective of extracting market knowledge from any database of industry players or competitors. The method combines two clustering techniques (Self-Organizing Maps, SOMs, and K-means) via unsupervised learning with promising dynamic applications in different sectors. As a case study, 30-year data from 18 diverse US passenger airlines is used to showcase the capabilities of this tool including the identification and assessment of market trends, M&A events or the COVID-19 consequences.

Airline market exit after a shock event: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, passenger demand for air transportation declined drastically. In the Unites States (U.S.), the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provided financial assistance. In return, commercial passenger airlines were given minimum service obligations, which allowed airlines to remove markets (flights between origin and destination airport pairs) from their networks as long as they continued operating in all cities that they serviced pre-pandemic. A binary logit methodology is used to model airline-market level decisions to continue operating in a market or to exit it. Two time periods are modeled: during normal operating conditions (before the pandemic) and after a major shock event (after the beginning of the pandemic). Results show that after the pandemic, 8.4 times more airline markets are exited as compared to before. Interestingly, the probability of exit is found to vary widely across markets, airports, and airlines. Some market characteristics have a high probability of exit both before and after the pandemic, including low passenger revenue per available seat mile, low flight frequencies, and flights to/from multi-airport cities. In contrast, other market characteristics impact airlines' market exit decisions in only one time period rather than both. For example, during normal operating conditions, airport size does not impact market exit. However, after the pandemic, the probability of exit is 1.8 to 2.2 times higher for the larger hub airports as compared to the smallest airports (non-hubs), a result that is explained within the context of the CARES Act minimum service obligations.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a global threat to human health. In order to prevent the spread of this virus, many countries have imposed travel restrictions. This difficult situation has dramatically affected the airline industry by reducing the passenger volume, number of flights, airline flow patterns, and even has changed the entire airport network, especially in Northeast Asia (because it includes the original disease seed). However, although most scholars have used conventional statistical analysis to describe the changes in passenger volume before and during the COVID-19 outbreak, very few of them have applied statistical assessment or time series analysis, and have not even examined how the impact may be different from place to place. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the impact of COVID-19 on the airline industry and affected areas (including the origin-destination flow and the airport network). First, a Clustering Large Applications (CLARA) algorithm was used to group numerous origin-destination (O-D) flow patterns based on their characteristics and to determine if these characteristics have changed the severity of the impact of each cluster during the COVID-19 outbreak. Second, two statistical tests (the paired t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test) were utilized to determine if the entire airport network and the top 30 hub airports changed during COVID-19. Four centrality measurement indices (degree, closeness, eigenvector, and betweenness centrality) of the airports were used to assess the entire network and ranking of individual hub airports. The study data, provided by The Official Aviation Guide (OAG) from December 2019 to April 2020, indicated that during the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a decrease in passenger volume (60%-98.4%) as well as the number of flights (1.5%-82.6%). However, there were no such significant changes regarding the popularity ranking of most airports during the outbreak. Before this occurred (December 2019), most hub airports were in China (April 2020), and this trend remain similar during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the values of the centrality measurement decreased significantly for most hub airports due to travel restrictions issued by the government.

The impact of COVID-19 on air passenger demand and CO2 emissions in Brazil

This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 on air travel demand and emissions in Brazil, the largest aviation market in Latin America. Combining detailed flight data and data on combustion emission factors, we estimate the CO₂ emissions of domestic flights. A Bayesian structural time-series model was used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on daily trends of air travel demand and emissions. The COVID-19 caused a reduction of 68% in national passengers and 63% in total CO₂ emissions compared to what would have occurred if the pandemic had not happened. Despite such a sharp drop, fuel efficiency decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak, and passenger demand recovered to 64.2% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020. The fast recovery in domestic flights by December 2020 indicates that the emissions could soon return to pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating the challenges of reducing emissions in the aviation sector in the short term.

Consequences of COVID-19 on Health, Economy, and Tourism in Asia: A Systematic Review

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 situation, academic and disaster-related organizations have focused on the severity of COVID-19 and how to prevent the infection. The side effects of COVID-19 also created serious impacts on human lives from multiple perspectives. This study primarily aims to conduct a systematic review on the COVID-19 impacts from the aspects of health, economy, and tourism, focusing on Asia. We use the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses as the main tool in conducting the systematic review analysis. The keywords related to the focused aspect are searched based on the two prominent academic journal databases: Web of Science and PubMed. In each aforementioned aspect, the consequences and the main stakeholders who were directly and indirectly affected are explained. Moreover, the connection between the three aspects based on the impact of COVID-19, which still continues to intensify, and strategies to prepare for future pandemic situation are also presented.

The operation of labour charter flights during the COVID-19 pandemic in China

China was the first market badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores how Chinese airlines started and involved in labour charter operations, and tanalyse the evolutionary patterns of the charter route network. Flying charter flights for migrant workers is a unique phenomenon in China, especially during the Wuhan lockdown period. The main results are three: (1) private airlines were more active in charter operations during the earlier period, (2) labour charter operation is a newly appeared aviation-government-industry cooperative business model, and (3) there was a spread, change and shift of both charter flows and charter passengers during the four-week period of the study. This case study not only produces useful insights about the important role of charter flights in China during the Covid-19 pandemic period, but also contributes to the theory and practice related to aviation resilience. Also, it contributes to the discussion about aviation policies in China, taking labour charter operation as a window time to predicate future airline dynamics in a more deregulated environment. The results can help airlines, and airports adjust routes, distribute capacity, and adjust layouts for Spring Festival labour transport in normal or post-pandemic times.

STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?

The devastating impact of COVID-19 on aviation is unprecedented and undoubted in the recent sci-entific literature, with many studies having dissected different facets of COVID-19-induced changes to the industry. A few studies have stepped further and highlighted that the COVID-19 pandemic could have positive long-term impacts on aviation. Given that traditional air carriers are known to be reluctant for performing high-risk experiments outside their business-as-usual, parts of hope for a better aviation future rests on novel players entering the industry. The pandemic - against common perception and odds - might have created a rare opportunity for airline startups to enter the market. In this study, we first dissect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation and how it possibly created a breeding ground for new airlines. We propose a framework of eight facets, STARTUPS, covering flight Suspensions, Talents, Aircraft, Recovery, Travel demand, Uniquity, Policy making, and Strategy. Moreover, we analyze the business model and markets of 46 airline startups, established or becoming active during the pandemic. Our study is concluded with a dis-cussion on the risk factors for airline startups during the COVID-19 pandemic and induced policy challenges. Our analysis, we believe, is complementary to existing studies on COVID-19, leveraging a novel perspective on the pandemic and the aviation industry.

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the US airline market: Are current business models equipped for upcoming changes in the air transport sector?

We address the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the US airlines market and discuss the benefits and limitations of current business models in a context of increasing socio-economic uncertainty and stringent environmental regulations. Drawing our data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and 10-K/A reports, we undertook an exploratory study of the performance of the 10 main passenger airlines in their domestic operation during one year. We found that, although major losses occurred industry-wide, ultra-low-cost and low-cost airlines fared better than full-service network carriers did in terms of financial performance. We argue, nevertheless, that such apparently successful business models are not necessarily adaptive to address future industry changes.

The Effect of COVID-Related EU State Aid on the Level Playing Field for Airlines

State aid for airlines around the world has been a common practice during the COVID-19 pandemic, as the air transport was one of the sectors most heavily affected. This study analyzes 27 cases of state aid to EU airlines between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2021 with a total amount of €31 billion. The information was obtained from the area of competition of the European Commission (EC), which is the entity responsible for final approval. Results indicate that the largest EU economies (Germany and France), as well as some Northern European countries, are supporting national airlines more extensively. Airlines with a weaker financial performance before the pandemic were more likely to receive state aid. Government involvement in the airline industry during the recent health crisis will have an important influence on the level playing field (LPF) for airlines. It is still unclear how this will evolve in the future, but it seems that some airlines now resemble the public flag companies of the past.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Airfares—A Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis

This paper studies the performance of machine learning predictions for the counterfactual analysis of air transport. It is motivated by the dynamic and universally regulated international air transport market, where ex post policy evaluations usually lack counterfactual control scenarios. As an empirical example, this paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airfares in 2020 as the difference between predicted and actual airfares. Airfares are important from a policy makers’ perspective, as air transport is crucial for mobility. From a methodological point of view, airfares are also of particular interest given their dynamic character, which makes them challenging for prediction. This paper adopts a novel multi-step prediction technique with walk-forward validation to increase the transparency of the model’s predictive quality. For the analysis, the universe of worldwide airline bookings is combined with detailed airline information. The results show that machine learning with walk-forward validation is powerful for the counterfactual analysis of airfares.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Turkish civil aviation industry

COVID-19 pandemic, which has announced to the world from Wuhan in China, has naturally formed economic shocks in air transport. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis, governments closed international borders and almost all airlines have drastically reduced their available seat capacity. The aim of this study is to examine the early and late responses such as financial decisions, managing and recovering flights, human resources management and hygiene measures taken by Turkish air carriers in a crisis environment during pandemics and economic shocks. Turkish Civil Aviation Industry (TCAI) is analyzed pre and during COVID-19 in terms of market overview. Finally, we also present current and future directions, and provide examples of the reactions from Turkish and global carriers. The results show that TCAI is heavily impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the market is re-shaping with fewer carriers in the recovery phase. Airline staff faced significant salary decreases in TCAI due to revenue decrease of the airlines. Cargo-only flights are increased crucially in the TCAI, although passenger figures are dropped.

Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea

In recent years, domestic and international air passenger markets have expanded steadily around the world with the rapid growth of low cost carriers and aggressive route expansion; however, the unprecedented crisis caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in greatly decreased air travel and an uncertain future for the aviation industry. The present study examined South Korean passengers, airlines, and government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it suggests policy directions for the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Air passengers respond to internal and external factors, and their demand for travel will increase with the reduction in global COVID cases and vaccine distribution. South Korean airlines have used various means to overcome decreased passenger numbers, such as domestic route transitions, freight transportation expansion, and mergers and acquisitions; Korean Air recorded a profit through its foray into cargo transport in 2020. The Korean government is trying to curb the spread of COVID-19 and help the industry to recover by establishing an airport quarantine system at Incheon international airport. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it is necessary to continuously monitor the responses of passengers, industry, and governments and to share relevant information.

Air-Travelers’ Perceptions of Service Quality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Tripadvisor Sites

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted both healthcare and the economy on a global scale. This pandemic has changed consumer habits and behaviors significantly, primarily because of confinement-related issues. While numerous research has been undertaken to study customer satisfaction using surveys and online passenger ratings, the effect of COVID-19 on passenger satisfaction has not been explored. It is vital to assess satisfaction indicators gathered from online consumer reviews to ascertain consumers’ preferences for airline services during the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this study is to determine the primary themes that emerged from airline travelers’ internet reviews during the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, it attempts to determine which of these themes relate to higher and lower passenger satisfaction. The article uses qualitative (i.e., narratives) analyses to examine the main components of passengers’ subjective experiences of the airline. Data are represented by passenger reviews posted on the TripAdvisor website. The analyses revealed ten themes in descriptions of airline travel experiences. These include “flight”, “service”, “staff”, “food”, “check-in”, “cancellation”, “COVID-19”, “airport”, “class”, and “luggage”. Dissatisfying concepts are linked with the “cancellation”, “check-in”, “refund”, and “airport” concepts.

Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation

While COVID-19 has devastating effects on aviation, several recent studies have highlighted the potential of the pandemic-induced break for rethinking air transportation, hopefully orchestrating changes towards the construction of a more pandemic-resilient aviation system. Here, pandemic-resilient means that aviation stakeholders can sustain the impact of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak through a more informed reallocation of their resources and more collaborative decision making, while being able to minimize the impacts of external events. Our study contributes to the literature by discussing the challenges associated with technological innovation and education of aviation professionals, on the way towards pandemic-resilient aviation. We discuss issues surrounding technologies for smarter aircraft, smarter airports, and smarter airlines. While technology ensures long-term competitiveness and sustainability, an often-ignored source of challenges are human resources and education. COVID-19 has uncovered and magnified the effects of severe concerns with the current aviation education system, which need to be solved by extended skill sets, modern technology, and better career perspectives. Without properly addressing these technological and educational challenges, the aviation industry likely misses an distinct opportunity for restructuring towards pandemic-resilient aviation.

COVID-19 and bailout policy: The case of Virgin Australia

The impact of COVID-19 on air transport is unprecedented and some well-known airline brands may disappear as a result. Governments around the world have responded swiftly to cushion the financial impact by offering direct wage subsidies, tax relief, loans, etc. This paper explores the government's appropriate responses to failing airlines' bailout request by examining the case of Virgin Australia. Following the bailout policy principles established in the literature, we suggest that bankruptcy protection should be considered as the first solution to a failing carrier. A bailout decision should be guided by a set of principles and procedures, which should not be taken lightly. Our analysis also shows that the government cannot take a hands-off approach in the absence of private lenders and investors, as the costs to consumers and regional residents would be huge if the carrier could not get through the COVID-19 pandemic. A minimum level of assistance with conditions might be needed to maintain market competition.

Shared public transport within a physical internet framework: Reviews, conceptualization and expected challenges under COVID-19 pandemic

Traffic congestion, dominated by private mobility, reveals not only negative impacts on road safety and the environment, but also on community cohesion. With the global COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2COVID-19 (COVID-19) epidemic, there is an urgent need for social isolation and the use of individual private transport as per the approved health guidelines. Urban transport, especially public transportation (PT), is among the primary sectors affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, novel alternatives for competitive PT services still have to be provided to remain meeting the socio-economic and ecological PT challenges. In this respect, sharing PT vehicles carrying passengers (shared freight-PT) could exploit a significant residual capacity as absorptive capacity is actually reduced. However, such use is based on a large-scale mutualization. The idea of integrating freight in passenger transit networks could be efficient within a Physical Internet (PI or π) framework for improving system monitoring, operational performance and, user comfort. This paper explores the major trends in the theory and practice of shared transport systems, in terms of passengers and freight, and suggests a PI conceptual framework to check if we could promote such logistics. In exploring the PI approach, a number of proposals appear providing answers and advance researches towards shared freight-PT.

COVID-19 Pandemic—Financial Consequences for Polish Airports—Selected Aspects

The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the mobility of urban residents on an international level. Tourist air traffic was suspended as one of many activities. As a result, the aviation industry has suffered losses at various levels. In addition to carriers, airports are also suffering due to the effects of the pandemic. Their income comes mainly from charges for take-offs and landings of airplanes, passenger charges, and commercial and restaurant activity. In this paper, the authors attempt to estimate the level of losses incurred by six Polish airports in relation to passenger charges. Based on the data for the years 2015–2019, the forecasts of passenger flows for the year 2020 were estimated using the seasonality indicator method, the method of one-name period trends, and models of linear trends with seasonality. Research has shown that the total losses of the examined airports for the year 2020 amounted to approximately 290 million EUR, and these are losses resulting only from the lack of fees charged for servicing passengers at the airports.

Determinants of financial distress in the European air transport industry: The moderating effect of being a flag-carrier

Due to the COVID-induced global collapse in demand for air travel, the year 2020 was a catastrophic one for the aviation industry. A dramatic drop in operating revenues along with continuing fixed expenses drained the cash reserves of airlines, with consequent risks of financial distress and, potentially, even of bankruptcy. Flag-carriers are a special group in the airline business-they are considered to have privileges in terms of the support given by governments while, on the other hand, are often viewed as having low efficiency and performance. This study aims to estimate for European airlines the interaction effect of being a flag-carrier (flagship) with the relationship between leverage, liquidity, profitability, and the degree of financial distress. Findings obtained from analysing 99 European airlines over a period of ten years, indicate that the negative influence of leverage on financial stability is higher in the case of flag carriers (flagship). The impact of liquidity and profitability on financial health is more positive for flagship than for non-flagship carriers. These findings are not limited to contributing to the existing literature, but also have significant practical implications for executives, managers, and policy makers in the European air transport sector.

Different patterns of human activities in nature during Covid-19 pandemic and African swine fever outbreak confirm direct impact on wildlife disruption

Implementation of various restrictions to eradicate viral diseases has globally affected human activity and subsequently nature. But how can the altered routines of human activity (restrictions, lockdowns) affect wildlife behaviour? This study compared the differences between human and wildlife occurrences in the study forest area with acreage of 5430.6 ha in 2018 (African swine fever outbreak, complete entrance ban), 2019 (standard pattern) and 2020 (COVID-19 restrictions) during the breeding season. The number of visitors was lower by 64% in 2018 (non-respecting of the entry ban by forest visitors) compared to standard 2019, while in 2020, the number of visitors increased to 151%. In the COVID-19 period, distinct peaks in the number of visitors were observed between 8-11 AM and 4-7 PM. The peaks of wildlife activity were recorded between 4-7 AM and 9-12 PM. Animals avoided the localities that were visited by humans during the people-influenced time (24 h after people visit), which confirmed the direct negative impact of human activities on wildlife.

Investigating air travellers' travel motivation during a pandemic crisis

The growth of the air transport industry has been accompanied by various crises including aircraft incidents and accidents, terrorist attacks, and pandemics such as COVID-19. These crises to a great extent affect air travelers' motivation, which in turn affects the air travel demand that justifies airlines' legitimate existence and sustainability. However, there has been relatively little research into understanding air travelers' motivation during and after such crises, despite some studies having been conducted in the tourism domain to understand the motivation of tourists to travel to specific destinations. An enhanced knowledge in this field is important and would benefit the airline industry, which is facing increasing competition from other transportation modes as well online conferencing technologies. By applying the Push and Pull Factor model, this study has sought to identify the travel motivation and further determine whether Push factors have any positive influence on Pull factors. To this end, 760 questionnaires were collected from Taiwan. Both descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were conducted to test the hypotheses. Our findings reveal that the Destination image remains the most influential Pull factor, while Aviation-specific products and services is the least attractive Pull factor. Self-realization/achievement topped the rankings for the Push factors, while Flying experience was a selling point in its own right among the Push factors, although it was not as appealing as anticipated. The millennium generation, fewer frequent flyers and low-income consumers are more likely to take advantage of flying deals. This paper suggests that a more collaborative approach between airlines, airports and destination organizations could be adopted to design and promote tailor-made aviation and travel products to stimulate segmented consumers' demand for air travel during crises. Effective marketing strategies need to be in place to promote the specially-designed travel products.

An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway

The COVID-19 crisis has become the most intense and long-lasting in the history of aviation. There is already a significant literature on the immediate impact of the outbreak, as well as on speculation on the future evolution of the industry. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by assessing a year into the crisis the demand related aspects and passenger behavioural impacts of the pandemic. Specifically, the paper aims to identify discrete market segments of air passengers according to their shared attitudes and preferences about air travel in light of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as past behaviour and future travel intentions. To achieve this, we analyse data from a large (n = 2096) online questionnaire survey of air passengers in Norway. The cluster analysis identifies four distinct passenger segments, with each displaying varying attitudes, behaviours, and levels of concern about air travel. One of these groups, described as the 'Apprehensive Elders', were identified as having the highest level of concern about flying, and subsequently showed a sharp decline in their intention to travel in the future. Another group, termed the 'Cautious Commuters', showed similarly enhanced levels of concerns about flying, but maintained a high propensity to fly following the pandemic despite these concerns. Regarding possible interventions to increase confidence in flying in the future, across all segments the data shows a clear preference for more 'traditional' active interventions, including wearing of face masks and enforcement of physical distancing, over and above passive or technological interventions. Norway represents a valuable case as a possible signal for future policy and practice in relation to the recovery of air travel following the pandemic. The findings have important implications for air transport managers and decision makers in terms of managing the perceptions and expectations of different passenger groups as air travel begins to return.

Place Affect Interventions During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 health and economic crisis has also brought a rise in people being unable to cope with their existing medical conditions and other issues such as domestic violence, drugs, and alcohol among others. Suicidal tendencies have been on the rise. Feelings of isolation causing emotional distress in place-confined settings have put additional pressure on the healthcare systems demanding that we find additional and complementary means of support for those in need. This is important not only in the current pandemic but also in the post-pandemic world. The goal is to collectively contribute and address the recurring calls for actions to maintain global well-being and public health. An important discussion to bring on the table is the need to promote interventions for people to cope with the pandemic and to adjust to the post-pandemic world. Promoting affective attitudes toward place can foster well-being outcomes. This has important benefits and is of relevance to governments, policymakers, and healthcare professionals in delivering better healthcare equipping people with coping mechanisms both throughout the pandemic and in the long run. However, the key challenge is how to foster these place affect attitudes meeting the changing demands in the post-pandemic world. It is in the middle of a crisis that the conversation needs to start about how to strategically plan for the recovery.

Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries

This study attempts to provide scientifically-sound evidence for designing more effective COVID-19 policies in the transport and public health sectors by comparing 418 policy measures (244 are transport measures) taken in different months of 2020 in Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The effectiveness of each policy is measured using nine indicators of infections and mobilities corresponding to three periods (i.e., one week, two weeks, and one month) before and after policy implementation. All policy measures are categorized based on the PASS approach (P: prepare-protect-provide; A: avoid-adjust; S: shift-share; S: substitute-stop). First, policy effectiveness is compared between policies, between countries, and over time. Second, a dynamic Bayesian multilevel generalized structural equation model is developed to represent dynamic cause-effect relationships between policymaking, its influencing factors and its consequences, within a unified research framework. Third, major policy measures in the six countries are compared. Finally, findings for policymakers are summarized and extensively discussed.

Are airline workers planning career turnover in a post-COVID-19 world? Assessing the impact of risk perception about virus infection and job instability

Airline workers have been suffering risks of job instability and virus infection since the outbreak of COVID-19. This research developed a novel framework explicating airline workers' career turnover decision formation by considering the influence of perceived risks of virus infection and job instability during the COVID-19. A quantitative approach using a survey method was utilized to attain research goals. Our empirical findings revealed that airline image, attitude, and commitment have a significant influence on employee career turnover intention. Both attitude and commitment were identified as essential mediators. In addition, perceived risks of virus infection and job instability significantly moderated the relationships among attitude, commitment, and employee career turnover intention. The effectiveness of the proposed theoretical framework for career turnover intention was demonstrated. Our findings help researchers and entrepreneurs find effectual ways to lower competent workers’ career turnover and raise their approach behaviors in a post-COVID-19 world.

Vaccination passports: Challenges for a future of air transportation

COVID-19 has been a major setback for air transportation; many airlines had to request for bailouts and the international flights connectivity is only restarting slowly. Accordingly, many aviation stakeholders put hopes into the ongoing process of vaccination, with the expectation that a high degree of vaccination will push the envelope for a return to normalcy. One prerequisite for reviving international air connectivity is the introduction of verification documents, also called "vaccination passports". These passports, however, come with several challenges which need to be overcome in order to enable recovery. In this study, we propose a framework covering five important aspects and policy challenges concerning the introduction of vaccination passports for a return of aviation, covering the topics: Competition, Epidemiology, Technology, Ethics, and Politics. Neglecting to appropriately address these challenges will likely not only delay the recovery, but possibly miss an important opportunity before new disastrous events appear on the horizon.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic, energy-environment and transport sector globally and sustainable development goal (SDG)

The United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) want to have a peaceful world where human life will be in a safe, healthy, sustainable environment without any inequalities. However, the year 2020 experienced a global pandemic due to COVID-19. This COVID-19 created an adverse impact on human life, economic, environment, and energy and transport sector compared to the pre-COVID-19 scenario. These above-mentioned sectors are interrelated and thus lockdown strategy and stay at home rules to reduce the COVID-19 transmission had a drastic effect on them. With lockdown, all industry and transport sectors were closed, energy demand reduced greatly but the time shift of energy demand had a critical impact on grid and energy generation. Decreased energy demand caused a silver lining with an improved environment. However, drowned economy creating a negative impact on the human mind and financial condition, which at times led to life-ending decisions. Transport sector which faced a financial dip last year trying to coming out from the losses which are not feasible without government aid and a new customer-friendly policy. Sustainable transport and the electric vehicle should take high gear. While people are staying at home or using work from home scheme, building indoor environment must specially be taken care of as a compromised indoor environment affects and increases the risk of many diseases. Also, the energy-efficient building will play a key role to abate the enhanced building energy demand and more generation from renewable sources should be in priority. It is still too early to predict any forecast about the regain period of all those sectors but with vaccination now being introduced and implemented but still, it can be considered as an ongoing process as its final results are yet to be seen. As of now, COVID-19 still continue to grow in certain areas causing anxiety and destruction. With all these causes, effects, and restoration plans, still SDGs will be suffered in great order to attain their target by 2030 and collaborative support from all countries can only help in this time.

Impacts of COVID-19 on aircraft usage and fuel consumption: A case study on four Chinese international airports

COVID-19 pandemic starting in early 2020 has greatly impacted human and industrial activities. Air transport in China shrank abruptly in February 2020, following a year-long gradual recovery. The airline companies reacted to this unprecedented event by dramatically reducing the flight volume and rearranging the aircraft types. As the first major economy that successfully controls the spread of COVID-19, China can provide a unique opportunity to quantify the medium-long impacts on the air transport industry. To quantify the corresponding changes and to elucidate the effects of COVID-19 in the wake of two major outbreaks centered in Wuhan and Beijing, we analyze twelve flight routes formed by four selected airports, using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data in 2019 and 2020. Our results show that the total flight volume in 2020 reduced to 67.8% of 2019 in China. The recovering time of flight volume was about 2-6 months, dependent on the severity. In order to unwind the severe challenge, airlines mainly relied on aircraft B738 and A321 between February and June in 2020 because the fuel consumption per seat of these two aircraft types is the lowest. Besides, fuel consumption and aircraft emissions are calculated according to the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the International Civil Aviation Organization's Engine Emissions Databank (ICAO's EEDB). At the end of 2020, the ratios of daily fuel consumption and aircraft emissions of 2020 to 2019 rebounded to about 0.875, suggesting the domestic commercial flights were nearly fully recovered. Our results may provide practical guidance and meaningful expectation for commercial aircraft management for other countries.

COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane

This paper aims to analyze and understand the impact of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) on aviation and also the role aviation played in the spread of COVID-19, by reviewing the recent scientific literature. We have collected 110 papers on the subject published in the year 2020 and grouped them according to their major application domain, leading to the following categories: Analysis of the global air transportation system during COVID-19, the impacts on the passenger-centric flight experience, and the long-term impacts on broad aviation. Based on the aggregated reported findings in the literature, this paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future scientific directions; hopefully helping aviation to prepare for a post-COVID-19 world.

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies' income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%-0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.

Human mobility behavior in COVID-19: A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis

This article maps the scientific literature in human mobility behavior in the context of the current pandemic. Through bibliometrics, we analyze the content of published scientific studies indexed on the Web of Science and Scopus during 2020. This enables us the detection of current hotspots and future directions of research. After a co-occurrence of keywords and evidence map analysis, four themes are identified, namely, Land Transport - Operations, Land Transport - Traffic Demand, Air Transport and Environment. We show how air transportation- and environmental-related studies tend to be more mature research whereas the understanding of changes in travel behavior (e.g., telecommuting, preventive measures or health protection behavior) tends to be immature. By using a topic modeling approach, we identify multiple sub-themes within each theme. Our framework adopts a smart literature review approach that can be constantly updated, enabling an analysis of many articles, with little investment of the researcher's time, but also provides high degree of transparency and replicability. We also put forth a research agenda that can help inform and shape transport policy and practice responses to COVID-19.

The Post-Pandemic Recovery of Transport Activity: Emerging Mobility Patterns and Repercussions on Future Evolution

The expectations for post-COVID recovery of transport activity point towards a gradual return to normality, once the pandemic is under control and mobility restrictions end. The shock to society and economy has, however, caused a number of behavioural changes that can influence the evolution of the transport sector. We analyse the main factors that can influence future supply and demand and explore how they may affect trip generation, distribution and modal split in passenger transport. We combine several conventional and innovative data sources with a detailed strategic transport model at the EU level, in order to present quantitative estimates under various scenarios. New remote work patterns or personal risk avoidance attitudes can lead to increased levels of car ownership and use. Public policy priorities in the aftermath of the pandemic would need to address the emerging challenges and adopt measures that can sustain the shift to active travel, support public transport, railways and aviation and stimulate innovation in transport technologies and services.

Virtual Airport Hub—A New Business Model to Reduce GHG Emissions in Continental Air Transport

The virtual airport hub business model is an innovative solution supported by digital technologies; the implementation of which in continental air transport may lead to a reduction in energy consumption and to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The prerequisites for the implementation of the described solution are as follows: striving to implement the GHG emission reduction strategy laid out in the Paris Agreement (2015) and the European Green Deal (2019) as well as the EU digitalization strategy (2020). The use of predictive analytics to identify the mobility needs of population and operational capabilities of the sector gives an opportunity to plan travel flows and to create an appropriate set of direct connections among regional airports every day. The results of the analysis of data from 2019 on the amount of energy consumption and GHG emissions indicate that in Europe, it would be possible to achieve reduce GHG emissions by 5% without reducing the number of passengers using air transport. The study was prepared after conducting literature studies, data analysis, and using the method of formulating scenarios. The proposed solution has the features of an innovative business model, the implementation of which allows for obtaining more favorable effects using already available resources.