Pandemics and environmental shocks: What aviation managers should learn from COVID-19 for long-term planning

Risk perceptions of COVID-19, vocational identity, and employment aspirations of Chinese aviation students: a structural equation modeling approach

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the aviation and education sectors in China. This study examined the relationships between risk perceptions of the pandemic, vocational identity, and employment aspirations of Chinese aviation students.

METHODS

The study used a convenience sampling approach to collect data (n = 276 respondents) from August 2 to 8, 2022. An online survey was sent via WeChat and QQ to Chinese students majoring in aviation service management who were under lockdown at six Chinese schools.

RESULTS

In spite of the strong support for the stringent COVID policies and full awareness of infection risk and protective measures, respondents were worried about the current unstable situation and felt fear for its severity and long-lasting symptoms. The casual path from career commitment to employment aspiration was supported, but high risk perceptions of the pandemic failed to have any psychological effect on the two constructs of vocational identity and employment aspirations.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings not only demonstrate the power of career commitment on employment aspirations but also reveal that a relatively high self-assessment of career proficiency may not necessarily lead to a clear career aspiration, possibly due to poor risk communication and insufficient career planning guidance. Thus, Chinese aviation students should improve their career proficiency and commitment, broaden their career options and adaptability, and have a clear career plan, in order to be well prepared for the fierce job market that will face the next wave of the ongoing pandemic.

Has passenger satisfaction at airports changed with the onset of COVID-19? The case of Seville Airport (Spain)

The changes that have come about at airports in recent decades in the areas of security, deregulation, and technological advances have affected both airport management and the passenger experience at airport facilities. In addition, all around the world, the airport sector has been struck by the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021. Using a broad sample of data taken from Airport Service Quality (ASQ) surveys and robust econometric methodology, specifically, an Ordered Logit model with Principal Component Analysis, this paper seeks to cover the gap in the academic literature regarding the effect of a worldwide pandemic on passenger satisfaction at airports during the 2015-2021 period, while taking into consideration the passenger profile and journey and airport attributes. It takes as its reference a Spanish regional airport, which had been experiencing a strong expansion process prior to the pandemic. With respect to the variables linked to the passenger profile, a differential behavior is observed in satisfaction depending on nationality, motive for travel, and destination. In addition, the four facility- and airport process-related dimensions are significant, with cleanliness and comfort standing out above all others. These are even more important in a health emergency scenario such as is currently being experienced. Lastly, 2021 is shown to cause a downturn in the positive passenger satisfaction with the airport that had been observed during the first year of the pandemic. Therefore, more long-term management is required alongside the initial rapid and efficient action taken by airports, with up-to-date information for passengers to internalize the inconveniences associated with this long-drawn-out period of uncertainty.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Sustainable Success of Airlines During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the risk of financial distress, bankruptcy, or both, in the airline industry. Whether airlines can survive or not during and/or after the pandemic is closely related to their decisions and actions which will enable their success by increasing their resilience. In crisis periods such as COVID-19, the decisions taken by airlines are strategically important for achieving sustainable success. Thus, it is critical to understand which factors are more important for airlines to shape their actions and make correct decisions. This paper investigates the sustainable success factors on which airlines should focus to provide resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It provides a robust model using the interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IT2FAHP) and interval type-2 fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (IT2FDEMATEL) to identify and rank success factors. The findings indicate that financial and operational factors are extremely important to ensure resilience for airlines. In addition, the results of the study reveal that operational factors and information sharing factors have an impact on financial factors and customer satisfaction.

Evaluating the Impact of the Pandemic Crisis on the Aviation Industry

This paper investigates the intellectual structure of the literature addressing "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry" through a bibliometric approach to the literature from 1991 to 2021. The final count of 856 publications was collected from Web of Science and analyzed by CiteSpace (version 5.8.R1) and VOS Viewer. Visualization tools are used to perform the co-citation, co-occurrence, and thematic-based cluster analysis. The results highlight the most prominent nodes (articles, authors, journals, countries, and institutions) within the literature on "epidemic/pandemic" and "aviation industry." Furthermore, this study conceptualizes and compares the growth of literature before theCOVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 ("hotspot") era. The conclusion is that the aviation industry is an engine for global economics on the road to recovery from COVID-19, in which soft (human) resources can play an integral part.

The effect of COVID-19 on self-reported safety incidents in aviation: An examination of the heterogeneous effects using causal machine learning

INTRODUCTION

Disruptions to aviation operations occur daily on a micro-level with negligible impacts beyond the inconvenience of rebooking and changing aircrew schedules. The unprecedented disruption in global aviation due to COVID-19 highlighted a need to evaluate emergent safety issues rapidly.

METHOD

This paper uses causal machine learning to examine the heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on reported aircraft incursions/excursions. The analysis utilized self report data from NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System collected from 2018 to 2020. The report attributes include self identified group characteristics and expert categorization of factors and outcomes. The analysis identified attributes and subgroup characteristics that were most sensitive to COVID-19 in inducing incursions/excursions. The method included the generalized random forest and difference-in-difference techniques to explore causal effects.

RESULTS

The analysis indicates first officers are more prone to experiencing incursion/excursion events during the pandemic. In addition, events categorized with the human factors confusion, distraction, and the causal factor fatigue increased incursion/excursion events.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

Understanding the attributes associated with the likelihood of incursion/excursion events provides policymakers and aviation organizations insights to improve prevention mechanisms for future pandemics or extended periods of reduced aviation operations.

Municipal Pathways in Response to COVID-19: A Strategic Management Perspective on Local Public Administration Resilience

This paper aims to understand the different resilience pathways local governments may take during moments of crisis, specifically focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Through survey responses from local administrations in Wallonia, Belgium, we consider how varied contexts led to different strategic resilience pathways. These pathways range from static (i.e., no strategy) to innovative change. Our findings highlight that digital technology solutions may play a role in supporting resilience across the different pathways. Therefore, we adapt strategic public management literature to suggest propositions for future research to test the specific role that digital technologies play in supporting resilience within local administrations.

COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Summary of Recent Research, Policy Consideration and Future Research Directions

The COVID-19 pandemic can be considered an unparalleled disruption to the aviation industry in the last century. Starting with an at-that-time inconceivable reduction in the number of flights from March 2020 to May 2020, the aviation industry has been trying to navigate through and out of the crisis. This process is accompanied with a significant number of scientific studies, reporting on the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation and vice versa. This paper reviews the impacts in context of the recent literature. We have collected nearly 200 well-published papers on the subject in the years 2021/2022 and dissected them into a framework of eight categories, built around: airlines, airports, passengers, workforce, markets, contagion, sustainability, and economics. We highlight the essence of findings in the literature and derive a set of future research directions and policy considerations which we deem important on the way towards pandemic-resilient aviation.

Medical Staff Shortages and the Performance of Outpatient Clinics in Poland during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Unlike many industries, healthcare was simultaneously affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in two opposite ways. On the one hand, the industry faced shortages and overload of many medical representatives such as nurses and infectious disease professionals, but on the other, many medical professionals such as dentists were left with considerably reduced demand. The objective of this paper is to study the efficiency of medical staff allocation and the performance of small and medium sized outpatient clinics in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic. Owing to the contemporaneity of this problem, we have employed a multiple case study approach. Our sample comprises 5 small and medium-sized outpatient clinics located in Poland in the 3-year period 2019-2021. The results indicate a considerable percentage of medical staff employed in small and medium-sized outpatient clinics remained outside the pandemic, despite their potential provision of healthcare services. Four of the five clinics studied remained passive towards the pandemic. In view of future pandemics, the indications we provide have practical implications for outpatient clinics executives and public health policymakers.

Health risks of airplane boarding methods with apron buses when some passengers disregard safe social distancing

Many airlines instituted social distancing practices to keep passengers safe during the pandemic. The practices include keeping the middle seats empty, reducing the number of passengers taking an apron bus from the terminal to the airplane, and prescribing that passengers maintain 1 m social distance of separation from other passengers in the aisle while advancing to their seats. However, not all passengers comply with a prescribed 1 m aisle social distance. Through agent-based simulations of passenger boarding when apron buses are used, we examine boarding policies adapted for the pandemic when the level of passenger compliance varies. To compare policies, we consider the duration of time that passengers are too close to other passengers while walking or standing in the aisle. We consider other health metrics from previous research and the time to complete boarding of the airplane. We find that the WilMA–Spread and Reverse-pyramid–Spread boarding methods provide favorable outcomes. Airlines should use WilMA–Spread if their primary concern is the risk to passengers while walking down the aisle and Reverse-pyramid–Spread if they want faster times to complete boarding of the airplane and reduced risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers. The level of the passengers’ non-compliance with the prescribed aisle social distance can impact a health metric by up to 6.75%—depending on the boarding method and metric. However, non-compliance reduces the time to complete boarding of the airplane by up to 38.8% even though it increases the average time an individual passenger spends boarding.

Airline market exit after a shock event: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, passenger demand for air transportation declined drastically. In the Unites States (U.S.), the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act provided financial assistance. In return, commercial passenger airlines were given minimum service obligations, which allowed airlines to remove markets (flights between origin and destination airport pairs) from their networks as long as they continued operating in all cities that they serviced pre-pandemic. A binary logit methodology is used to model airline-market level decisions to continue operating in a market or to exit it. Two time periods are modeled: during normal operating conditions (before the pandemic) and after a major shock event (after the beginning of the pandemic). Results show that after the pandemic, 8.4 times more airline markets are exited as compared to before. Interestingly, the probability of exit is found to vary widely across markets, airports, and airlines. Some market characteristics have a high probability of exit both before and after the pandemic, including low passenger revenue per available seat mile, low flight frequencies, and flights to/from multi-airport cities. In contrast, other market characteristics impact airlines' market exit decisions in only one time period rather than both. For example, during normal operating conditions, airport size does not impact market exit. However, after the pandemic, the probability of exit is 1.8 to 2.2 times higher for the larger hub airports as compared to the smallest airports (non-hubs), a result that is explained within the context of the CARES Act minimum service obligations.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Air Transport Passenger Markets-Implications for Selected EU Airports Based on Time Series Models Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drastic reduction in air traffic passengers, especially during the period when the EU countries introduced a lockdown. Even after the relaunch of airline operators, passenger traffic did not return to the pre-pandemic trend. The aim of the study was to estimate the difference between the demand that was observed during the pandemic, and the demand that was forecast based on the pre-pandemic trend. The calculations were made for airports in selected EU countries. The first method was seasonality indicators, using quarterly data for 2015–2021. In the multiplicative model of seasonal fluctuations, the method of determining the seasonality indicators was used, based on the quotient of empirical values and the value of the trend. The one-name period trend method was used in the next step, then Fourier spectral analysis was applied. In the context of forecasts for the individual quarters of 2020 and 2021, all models indicate a further growing trend in the demand for passenger transport, which could have been observed if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred. As a result of the pandemic, the number of passengers handled at airports has significantly decreased. In the third quarter of 2021, freight growth was already noticeable, with the exception of Netherland, where a marked decline was recorded.

STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?

The devastating impact of COVID-19 on aviation is unprecedented and undoubted in the recent sci-entific literature, with many studies having dissected different facets of COVID-19-induced changes to the industry. A few studies have stepped further and highlighted that the COVID-19 pandemic could have positive long-term impacts on aviation. Given that traditional air carriers are known to be reluctant for performing high-risk experiments outside their business-as-usual, parts of hope for a better aviation future rests on novel players entering the industry. The pandemic - against common perception and odds - might have created a rare opportunity for airline startups to enter the market. In this study, we first dissect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation and how it possibly created a breeding ground for new airlines. We propose a framework of eight facets, STARTUPS, covering flight Suspensions, Talents, Aircraft, Recovery, Travel demand, Uniquity, Policy making, and Strategy. Moreover, we analyze the business model and markets of 46 airline startups, established or becoming active during the pandemic. Our study is concluded with a dis-cussion on the risk factors for airline startups during the COVID-19 pandemic and induced policy challenges. Our analysis, we believe, is complementary to existing studies on COVID-19, leveraging a novel perspective on the pandemic and the aviation industry.

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the US airline market: Are current business models equipped for upcoming changes in the air transport sector?

We address the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the US airlines market and discuss the benefits and limitations of current business models in a context of increasing socio-economic uncertainty and stringent environmental regulations. Drawing our data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and 10-K/A reports, we undertook an exploratory study of the performance of the 10 main passenger airlines in their domestic operation during one year. We found that, although major losses occurred industry-wide, ultra-low-cost and low-cost airlines fared better than full-service network carriers did in terms of financial performance. We argue, nevertheless, that such apparently successful business models are not necessarily adaptive to address future industry changes.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Turkish civil aviation industry

COVID-19 pandemic, which has announced to the world from Wuhan in China, has naturally formed economic shocks in air transport. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis, governments closed international borders and almost all airlines have drastically reduced their available seat capacity. The aim of this study is to examine the early and late responses such as financial decisions, managing and recovering flights, human resources management and hygiene measures taken by Turkish air carriers in a crisis environment during pandemics and economic shocks. Turkish Civil Aviation Industry (TCAI) is analyzed pre and during COVID-19 in terms of market overview. Finally, we also present current and future directions, and provide examples of the reactions from Turkish and global carriers. The results show that TCAI is heavily impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the market is re-shaping with fewer carriers in the recovery phase. Airline staff faced significant salary decreases in TCAI due to revenue decrease of the airlines. Cargo-only flights are increased crucially in the TCAI, although passenger figures are dropped.

Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea

In recent years, domestic and international air passenger markets have expanded steadily around the world with the rapid growth of low cost carriers and aggressive route expansion; however, the unprecedented crisis caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in greatly decreased air travel and an uncertain future for the aviation industry. The present study examined South Korean passengers, airlines, and government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it suggests policy directions for the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Air passengers respond to internal and external factors, and their demand for travel will increase with the reduction in global COVID cases and vaccine distribution. South Korean airlines have used various means to overcome decreased passenger numbers, such as domestic route transitions, freight transportation expansion, and mergers and acquisitions; Korean Air recorded a profit through its foray into cargo transport in 2020. The Korean government is trying to curb the spread of COVID-19 and help the industry to recover by establishing an airport quarantine system at Incheon international airport. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it is necessary to continuously monitor the responses of passengers, industry, and governments and to share relevant information.

Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 Disruption on the Decarbonisation Agenda at Airports: Grounded or Ready for Take-Off?

COVID-19 has had wide-ranging impacts on organisations with the potential to disrupt efforts to decarbonise their operations. To understand how COVID-19 has affected the climate change mitigation strategies of Airport Operators (AOs), questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with Sustainability Managers were undertaken in late 2020 amidst a period of disruption. While all reported that COVID-19 impacted delivery of interventions and projects to mitigate climate change, the majority stated that it would not impact their long-term climate goals, such as Net Zero by 2050. The most popular climate change mitigation interventions AOs intend to deploy between now and 2030 are on-site renewables and Electric Vehicles and related infrastructure. Engineered carbon removal interventions were considered highly unlikely to be deployed in this timeframe, with potential implications for Net Zero decarbonisation pathways. Despite the severe impacts of COVID-19 on the sector, results indicate that AOs remain committed to decarbonisation, with climate change action remaining the key priority for airports. Given ongoing financial and resource constraints, AOs will need to explore new business models and partnerships and nurture collaborative approaches with other aviation stakeholders to not only maintain progress toward Net Zero but “build back better”. Government support will also be needed to stimulate the development of a sustainable, resilient, low-carbon aviation system.

Expanding Video Consultation Services at Pace and Scale in Scotland During the COVID-19 Pandemic: National Mixed Methods Case Study

Background

Scotland—a country of 5.5 million people—has a rugged geography with many outlying islands, creating access challenges for many citizens. The government has long sought to mitigate these through a range of measures including an ambitious technology-enabled care program. A strategy to develop a nationwide video consultation service began in 2017. Our mixed methods evaluation was commissioned in mid-2019 and extended to cover the pandemic response in 2020.

Objective

To draw lessons from a national evaluation of the introduction, spread, and scale-up of Scotland’s video consultation services both before and during the pandemic.

Methods

Data sources comprised 223 interviews (with patients, staff, technology providers, and policymakers), 60 hours of ethnographic observation (including in-person visits to remote settings), patient and staff satisfaction surveys (n=20,349), professional and public engagement questionnaires (n=5400), uptake statistics, and local and national documents. Fieldwork during the pandemic was of necessity conducted remotely. Data were analyzed thematically and theorized using the Planning and Evaluating Remote Consultation Services (PERCS) framework which considers multiple influences interacting dynamically and unfolding over time.

Results

By the time the pandemic hit, there had been considerable investment in material and technological infrastructure, staff training, and professional and public engagement. Scotland was thus uniquely well placed to expand its video consultation services at pace and scale. Within 4 months (March-June 2020), the number of video consultations increased from about 330 to 17,000 per week nationally. While not everything went smoothly, video was used for a much wider range of clinical problems, vastly extending the prepandemic focus on outpatient monitoring of chronic stable conditions. The technology was generally considered dependable and easy to use. In most cases (14,677/18,817, 78%), patients reported no technical problems during their postconsultation survey. Health care organizations’ general innovativeness and digital maturity had a strong bearing on their ability to introduce, routinize, and expand video consultation services.

Conclusions

The national-level groundwork before the pandemic allowed many services to rapidly extend the use of video consultations during the pandemic, supported by a strong strategic vision, a well-resourced quality improvement model, dependable technology, and multiple opportunities for staff to try out the video option. Scotland provides an important national case study from which other countries may learn.

An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway

The COVID-19 crisis has become the most intense and long-lasting in the history of aviation. There is already a significant literature on the immediate impact of the outbreak, as well as on speculation on the future evolution of the industry. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by assessing a year into the crisis the demand related aspects and passenger behavioural impacts of the pandemic. Specifically, the paper aims to identify discrete market segments of air passengers according to their shared attitudes and preferences about air travel in light of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as past behaviour and future travel intentions. To achieve this, we analyse data from a large (n = 2096) online questionnaire survey of air passengers in Norway. The cluster analysis identifies four distinct passenger segments, with each displaying varying attitudes, behaviours, and levels of concern about air travel. One of these groups, described as the 'Apprehensive Elders', were identified as having the highest level of concern about flying, and subsequently showed a sharp decline in their intention to travel in the future. Another group, termed the 'Cautious Commuters', showed similarly enhanced levels of concerns about flying, but maintained a high propensity to fly following the pandemic despite these concerns. Regarding possible interventions to increase confidence in flying in the future, across all segments the data shows a clear preference for more 'traditional' active interventions, including wearing of face masks and enforcement of physical distancing, over and above passive or technological interventions. Norway represents a valuable case as a possible signal for future policy and practice in relation to the recovery of air travel following the pandemic. The findings have important implications for air transport managers and decision makers in terms of managing the perceptions and expectations of different passenger groups as air travel begins to return.

COVID-19 in Management Studies: A Systematic Literature Review

In 2020, the whole world had to face a pandemic with inevitable profound changes in all aspects of life, from the social to the economic sphere. The profound economic crisis that followed the rise of the pandemic has pushed firms and researchers to question the necessary changes and new challenges for the survival of businesses. In this scenario, the aim of the paper is to analyze and classify the main contributions published on the topic of COVID-19 in managerial literature, seeking to discover the perspective and the gaps and outline future avenues of research. A systematic review of the literature has been performed. The results highlight the orientation of studies in this field and the various links between different aspects that emerged. Limitations and implications complete the research.