Early cost‐utility analysis of general and cerebrospinal fluid‐specific Alzheimer's disease biomarkers for hypothetical disease‐modifying treatment decision in mild cognitive impairment

New IPECAD Open-Source Model Framework for the Health Technology Assessment of Early Alzheimer's Disease Treatment: Development and Use Cases

OBJECTIVES

Reimbursement decisions for new Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments are informed by economic evaluations. An open-source model with intuitive structure for model cross-validation can support the transparency and credibility of such evaluations. We describe the new International Pharmaco-Economic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) open-source model framework (version 2) for the health-economic evaluation of early AD treatment and use it for cross-validation and addressing uncertainty.

METHODS

A cohort state-transition model using a categorized composite domain (cognition and function) was developed by replicating an existing reference model and testing it for internal validity. Then, features of existing Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) and Alzheimer's Disease Archimedes Condition-Event Simulator (AD-ACE) models assessing lecanemab treatment were implemented for model cross-validation. Additional uncertainty scenarios were performed on choice of efficacy outcome from trial, natural disease progression, treatment effect waning and stopping rules, and other methodological choices. The model is available open-source as R code, spreadsheet, and web-based version via https://github.com/ronhandels/IPECAD.

RESULTS

In the IPECAD model incremental life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gains and cost savings were 21% to 31% smaller compared with the ICER model and 36% to 56% smaller compared with the AD-ACE model. IPECAD model results were particularly sensitive to assumptions on treatment effect waning and stopping rules and choice of efficacy outcome from trial.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the ability of a new IPECAD open-source model framework for researchers and decision makers to cross-validate other (Health Technology Assessment submission) models and perform additional uncertainty analyses, setting an example for open science in AD decision modeling and supporting important reimbursement decisions.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnosing and treating patients with early Alzheimer's disease with anti-amyloid treatment in a clinical setting

BackgroundThe introduction of anti-amyloid treatments (AAT) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) has put the cost-effectiveness into focus.ObjectiveEstimate the potential cost-effectiveness of diagnostic pathways combined with AAT for early AD.MethodsDiagnostic accuracy of blood-based (BBM) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was obtained from Norwegian memory clinics using positron emission tomography (PET) as reference standard. In a health-economic model, the cost-effectiveness of three diagnostic strategies was estimated relying either on BBM (p-tau 217), CSF (Aβ42/40 ratio), and BBM with CSF confirmatory testing and compared with standard of care (SoC) and compared with CSF-AAT. The model consisted of a decision tree reflecting the diagnostic process and a subsequent Markov cohort model starting at mild cognitive impairment due to AD. All strategies except SoC were combined with AAT including costs of treatment (assumed €5000/year), infusions and monitoring.ResultsCompared with SoC all three strategies (CSF-AAT, BBM-AAT, and BBM-CSF-AAT) resulted in QALY gains at higher costs, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 110k€, 141k€ and 110k€ respectively. Compared with CSF-AAT both BBM-AAT and BBM-CSF-AAT strategies resulted in QALYs lost at lower costs, with an ICER of 27k€ and 109k€ respectively. Results were particularly sensitive to the price of AAT and possible subcutaneous administration.ConclusionsCompared with SoC all three strategies are potentially not cost-effective as they exceeded the Swedish maximum willingness to pay threshold of €94,800 per QALY gained. BBM-CSF-AAT versus CSF-AAT is potentially cost-effective if willing to accept its QALY loss. Discussions on budget impact on different payers are needed after introducing AAT.

The value of maintaining cognition in patients with mild cognitive impairment: The innovation headroom and potential cost-effectiveness of roflumilast

INTRODUCTION

Early health-technology assessment can support discussing scarce resource allocation among stakeholders. We explored the value of maintaining cognition in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by estimating: (1) the innovation headroom and (2) the potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast treatment in this population.

METHODS

The innovation headroom was operationalized by a fictive 100% efficacious treatment effect, and the roflumilast effect on memory word learning test was assumed to be associated with 7% relative risk reduction of dementia onset. Both were compared to Dutch setting usual care using the adapted International Pharmaco-Economic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) open-source model.

RESULTS

The total innovation headroom expressed as net health benefit was 4.2 (95% bootstrap interval: 2.9-5.7) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast was k€34 per QALY.

DISCUSSION

The innovation headroom in MCI is substantial. Although the potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast treatment is uncertain, further research on its effect on dementia onset is likely valuable.

Recent advances in pre-clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common dementia with currently no known cures or disease modifying treatments (DMTs), despite much time and effort from the field. Diagnosis and intervention of AD during the early pre-symptomatic phase of the disease is thought to be a more effective strategy. Therefore, the detection of biomarkers has emerged as a critical tool for monitoring the effect of new AD therapies, as well as identifying patients most likely to respond to treatment. The establishment of the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (A/T/N) framework in 2018 has codified the contexts of use of AD biomarkers in neuroimaging and bodily fluids for research and diagnostic purposes. Furthermore, a renewed drive for novel AD biomarkers and innovative methods of detection has emerged with the goals of adding additional insight to disease progression and discovery of new therapeutic targets. The use of biomarkers has accelerated the development of AD drugs and will bring new therapies to patients in need. This review highlights recent methods utilized to diagnose antemortem AD.

2020 update on the clinical validity of cerebrospinal fluid amyloid, tau, and phospho-tau as biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease in the context of a structured 5-phase development framework

Purpose

In the last decade, the research community has focused on defining reliable biomarkers for the early detection of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology. In 2017, the Geneva AD Biomarker Roadmap Initiative adapted a framework for the systematic validation of oncological biomarkers to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers—encompassing the 42 amino-acid isoform of amyloid-β (Aβ42), phosphorylated-tau (P-tau), and Total-tau (T-tau)—with the aim to accelerate their development and clinical implementation. The aim of this work is to update the current validation status of CSF AD biomarkers based on the Biomarker Roadmap methodology.

Methods

A panel of experts in AD biomarkers convened in November 2019 at a 2-day workshop in Geneva. The level of maturity (fully achieved, partly achieved, preliminary evidence, not achieved, unsuccessful) of CSF AD biomarkers was assessed based on the Biomarker Roadmap methodology before the meeting and presented and discussed during the workshop.

Results

By comparison to the previous 2017 Geneva Roadmap meeting, the primary advances in CSF AD biomarkers have been in the area of a unified protocol for CSF sampling, handling and storage, the introduction of certified reference methods and materials for Aβ42, and the introduction of fully automated assays. Additional advances have occurred in the form of defining thresholds for biomarker positivity and assessing the impact of covariates on their discriminatory ability.

Conclusions

Though much has been achieved for phases one through three, much work remains in phases four (real world performance) and five (assessment of impact/cost). To a large degree, this will depend on the availability of disease-modifying treatments for AD, given these will make accurate and generally available diagnostic tools key to initiate therapy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05258-7.

Quantifying and Describing the Natural History and Costs of Alzheimer's Disease and Effects of Hypothetical Interventions

Background:

A long-term horizon is necessary when the socioeconomic consequences and the potential effects of interventions in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are estimated.

Objectives:

To illustrate the potential societal costs of AD across the disease continuum and to illustrate the potential cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical intervention with disease modifying treatment (DMT).

Methods:

Based on the Swedish dementia registry, a Markov model was used to simulate a virtual cohort of 100,000 people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD (AD-MCI) in Sweden for 40 years starting at the age of 60. A simulated hypothetical intervention assumed a 25% reduction in progression rate during AD-MCI and mild AD-dementia. A comprehensive set of sensitivity analyses was included.

Results:

The cumulative risk to develop dementia was 96%. The mean simulated survival was 19.0 years. The net present value for a person year with dementia was 252,843 SEK (about 29,500 US$). The cost effectiveness model illustrated how the hypothetical scenario of a 25% reduction in progression to AD-dementia would require 41 AD-MCI patients to be treated to prevent one case of AD-dementia (2,447 avoided AD-dementia cases of 100,000 with AD-MCI). Most scenarios illustrated hypothetical cost effectiveness (based on a willingness to pay level of 600,000 SEK (70,000 US$) per gained QALY), but not cost savings.

Discussion:

Lifetime societal costs of AD are substantial. A future DMT may be potentially cost-effective given assumed treatment effects and costs, but cost savings are unlikely.

Economic impacts of introducing diagnostics for mild cognitive impairment Alzheimer's disease patients

INTRODUCTION

Disease-modifying treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are likely to be offered only to patients with molecular evidence for Alzheimer pathology and expanded to patients with prodromal AD. We calculated the potential future costs of expanding the number of positron emission tomography (PET) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tests in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

We conducted a focused literature review and consulted experts to obtain information on the current use of PET and CSF to diagnose prodromal AD, staffing and equipment requirements for these tests, and associated costs.

RESULTS

We estimate annual costs of 100,000 extra amyloid PET scans and 100,000 extra CSF tests at £113 million and £48 million, respectively; these costs are likely to be higher in the first year.

DISCUSSION

The budgetary impacts are not insignificant but are small in comparison to the likely market price of any disease-modifying treatments or to the probable costs of missed or inaccurate diagnosis.

What is the clinical impact of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers on final diagnosis and management in patients with mild cognitive impairment in clinical practice? Results from a nation-wide prospective survey in France

OBJECTIVES

New diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease (AD) include cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers that allow diagnosis at the stage of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the impact of CSF biomarkers in MCI populations in clinical practice has been poorly evaluated. The objective of this study is to assess the use and impact in clinical practice of AD CSF biomarkers in French memory clinics.

DESIGN

We performed a nation-wide, prospective survey between March 2012 and September 2014. Data over the same period was extracted from the French National Database (Banque Nationale Alzheimer, BNA) and compared with the results of the survey.

SETTING

29 secondary and tertiary memory clinics in France.

PARTICIPANTS

Clinicians prescribing lumbar puncture (LP) in order to measure AD CSF biomarkers. Clinicians completed a two-part questionnaire for each of their patients undergoing LP.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Assessment of diagnosis, level of confidence before and after CSF biomarkers and impact on management in patients who underwent LP for CSF AD biomarkers in clinical routine.

RESULTS

977 questionnaires were completed, of which 61 were excluded because of unknown initial/final diagnosis or non-contributory CSF results. Of 916 patients reported, 153 (16.7%) had MCI as the initial diagnosis, of which 51 (33.3%) displayed an AD profile. CSF biomarkers resulted in a change in diagnosis in 44 patients (28.8%). Confidence level significantly increased after LP (8.3±1.4vs 6.73±1.18, p<0.0001), and CSF results modified management in 71/156 patients (46.4%), including 36 (23.5%) enrolled in clinical trials. Comparison of change in diagnosis with the BNA population revealed no difference (32.24%, p=0.4).

CONCLUSION

This nation-wide survey, reflecting clinical practice in French memory clinics, describes the impact of CSF AD biomarkers in patients with MCI in clinical practice.

Family and Caregiver Spillover Effects in Cost-Utility Analyses of Alzheimer's Disease Interventions

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Alzheimer's disease or dementia can impose a significant burden on family and other informal caregivers. This study investigated how the inclusion of family/informal caregiver spillover effects in a cost-utility analysis may influence the reported value of Alzheimer's disease/dementia interventions.

METHODS

We used PubMed to identify Alzheimer's disease or dementia cost-utility analyses published from 1 January, 2000 to 31 March, 2018. We reviewed and abstracted information from each study using a two-reader consensus process. We investigated the frequency and methods in which family/caregiver spillover costs and health effects were incorporated into cost-utility analyses, and examined how their inclusion may influence the reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

Of 63 Alzheimer's disease/dementia cost-utility analyses meeting inclusion criteria, 44 (70%) considered at least some family/caregiver spillover costs or health effects. Thirty-two studies incorporated spillover costs only, two incorporated spillover health effects only, and ten incorporated both. The most common approach for accounting for spillover was adding informal caregiving time costs to patient costs (n = 36) and adding informal caregiver quality-adjusted life-years to patient values (n = 7). In a subset of 33 incremental cost-effectiveness ratio pairs from 19 studies, incorporating spillover outcomes made incremental cost-effectiveness ratios more favorable (n = 15; 45%) or kept the intervention cost saving (n = 13; 39%) in most cases. In fewer cases, including spillover increased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (n = 2; 6%), kept the intervention dominated [more costs/less quality-adjusted life-years] (n = 2; 6%), or changed incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from dominated to less cost/less quality-adjusted life-years (n = 1; 3%). In 11 cases (33%), adding spillover effects into analyses resulted in a lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that crossed a common cost-effectiveness threshold, which could have downstream implications for programs or policies that are adopted based on cost-effectiveness analysis results.

DISCUSSION

Most Alzheimer's disease/dementia cost-utility analyses incorporated spillover costs, often as caregiver time costs, but considered spillover health impacts less often. In about 85% of the analyses, including Alzheimer's disease/dementia spillover cost or health effects decreased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios or kept the intervention cost saving. The broader value of an Alzheimer's disease/dementia intervention to society may in some cases be underestimated without considering these spillover effects on family and informal caregivers.

Challenges and recommendations for the health-economic evaluation of primary prevention programmes for dementia

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to review health-economic evaluations of (hypothetical) intervention programmes for the primary prevention of dementia, and highlight challenges and provide recommendations for future research to estimate its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We searched the databases PubMed, MODEM, CEA and NHS for publications on the cost-consequence, -effectiveness, -utility or -benefit analysis of (hypothetical) interventions to reduce the risk of developing dementia for persons without dementia, and described the study characteristics.

RESULTS

Three publications described the evaluation of a hypothetical risk reduction due to physical activity or a multidomain intervention programme. Two studies reported a reduction of care costs. One study yielded two scenarios of increased care costs and one scenario of reduced care costs. Only one study reported the impact in QALY terms, and found a QALY gain.

CONCLUSION

A few studies have evaluated a hypothetical multidomain prevention intervention, and reported that primary dementia prevention is potentially cost-saving or cost-effective. Various challenges remain to evaluate the health-economic impact of prevention interventions, including extrapolation of short-term trial effects, care costs in the dementia-free and life years gained, and accurate representation of usual care. We recommend extensive sensitivity analyses to examine the impact of assumptions regarding these aspects on the outcomes of cost-effectiveness studies.

Using Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarker Testing to Target Treatment to Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are shown to facilitate a risk identification of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) into different risk levels of progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Knowing a patient's risk level provides an opportunity for earlier interventions, which could result in potential greater benefits. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the use of CSF biomarkers in MCI patients where the treatment decision was based on patients' risk level.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition model to project lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs for a cohort of 65-year-old MCI patients from a US societal perspective. We compared four test-and-treat strategies where the decision to treat was based on a patient's risk level (low, intermediate, high) of progressing to AD with two strategies without testing, one where no patients were treated during the MCI phase and in the other all patients were treated. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Testing and treating low-risk MCI patients was the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$37,700 per QALY. Our results were most sensitive to the level of treatment effectiveness for patients with mild AD and for MCI patients. Moreover, the ICERs for this strategy at the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were US$18,900 and US$50,100 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on the best available evidence regarding the treatment effectiveness for MCI, this study suggests the potential value of performing CSF biomarker testing for early targeted treatments among MCI patients with a narrow range for the ICER.

Cost-Utility of Using Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers in Cerebrospinal Fluid to Predict Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic research criteria for Alzheimer's disease support the use of biomarkers in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to improve the accuracy of the prognosis regarding progression to dementia for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the potential incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of adding CSF biomarker testing to the standard diagnostic workup to determine the prognosis for patients with MCI.

METHODS

In an early technology assessment, a mathematical simulation model was built, using available evidence on added prognostic value as well as expert opinion to estimate the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 20,000 virtual MCI patients with (intervention strategy) and without (control strategy) relying on CSF, from a health-care sector perspective and with a 5-year time horizon.

RESULTS

Adding the CSF test improved the accuracy of prognosis by 11%. This resulted in an average QALY gain of 0.046 and € 432 additional costs per patient, representing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of € 9,416.

CONCLUSION

The results show the potential of CSF biomarkers in current practice from a health-economics perspective. This result was, however, marked by a high degree of uncertainty, and empirical research is required into the impact of a prognosis on worrying, false-positive/negative prognosis, and stigmatization.

Cerebrospinal fluid and blood biomarkers for neurodegenerative dementias: An update of the Consensus of the Task Force on Biological Markers in Psychiatry of the World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry

In the 12 years since the publication of the first Consensus Paper of the WFSBP on biomarkers of neurodegenerative dementias, enormous advancement has taken place in the field, and the Task Force takes now the opportunity to extend and update the original paper. New concepts of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the conceptual interactions between AD and dementia due to AD were developed, resulting in two sets for diagnostic/research criteria. Procedures for pre-analytical sample handling, biobanking, analyses and post-analytical interpretation of the results were intensively studied and optimised. A global quality control project was introduced to evaluate and monitor the inter-centre variability in measurements with the goal of harmonisation of results. Contexts of use and how to approach candidate biomarkers in biological specimens other than cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), e.g. blood, were precisely defined. Important development was achieved in neuroimaging techniques, including studies comparing amyloid-β positron emission tomography results to fluid-based modalities. Similarly, development in research laboratory technologies, such as ultra-sensitive methods, raises our hopes to further improve analytical and diagnostic accuracy of classic and novel candidate biomarkers. Synergistically, advancement in clinical trials of anti-dementia therapies energises and motivates the efforts to find and optimise the most reliable early diagnostic modalities. Finally, the first studies were published addressing the potential of cost-effectiveness of the biomarkers-based diagnosis of neurodegenerative disorders.

Current issues and future research priorities for health economic modelling across the full continuum of Alzheimer's disease

Available data and models for the health-economic evaluation of treatment in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have limitations causing uncertainty to decision makers. Forthcoming treatment strategies in preclinical or early AD warrant an update on the challenges associated with their economic evaluation. The perspectives of the co-authors were complemented with a targeted review of literature discussing methodological issues and data gaps in AD health-economic modelling. The methods and data available to translate treatment efficacy in early disease into long-term outcomes of relevance to policy makers and payers are limited. Current long-term large-scale data accurately representing the continuous, multifaceted, and heterogeneous disease process are missing. The potential effect of disease-modifying treatment on key long-term outcomes such as institutionalization and death is uncertain but may have great effect on cost-effectiveness. Future research should give priority to collaborative efforts to access better data on the natural progression of AD and its association with key long-term outcomes.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies.

METHODS

We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face.

RESULTS

The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100).

CONCLUSION

Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

Poor Gait Performance and Prediction of Dementia: Results From a Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Poor gait performance predicts risk of developing dementia. No structured critical evaluation has been conducted to study this association yet. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically examine the association of poor gait performance with incidence of dementia.

METHODS

An English and French Medline search was conducted in June 2015, with no limit of date, using the medical subject headings terms "Gait" OR "Gait Disorders, Neurologic" OR "Gait Apraxia" OR "Gait Ataxia" AND "Dementia" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia" OR "Dementia, Multi-Infarct" OR "Dementia, Vascular" OR "Alzheimer Disease" OR "Lewy Body Disease" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia With Motor Neuron Disease" (Supplementary Concept). Poor gait performance was defined by standardized tests of walking, and dementia was diagnosed according to international consensus criteria. Four etiologies of dementia were identified: any dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and non-AD (ie, pooling VaD, mixed dementias, and other dementias). Fixed effects meta-analyses were performed on the estimates in order to generate summary values.

RESULTS

Of the 796 identified abstracts, 12 (1.5%) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Poor gait performance predicted dementia [pooled hazard ratio (HR) combined with relative risk and odds ratio = 1.53 with P < .001 for any dementia, pooled HR = 1.79 with P < .001 for VaD, HR = 1.89 with P value < .001 for non-AD]. Findings were weaker for predicting AD (HR = 1.03 with P value = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis provides evidence that poor gait performance predicts dementia. This association depends on the type of dementia; poor gait performance is a stronger predictor of non-AD dementias than AD.