Mean Versus Peak Coronary Calcium Density on Non-Contrast CT: Calcium Scoring and ASCVD Risk Prediction

Vascular Calcification Heterogeneity from Bench to Bedside: Implications for Manifestations, Pathogenesis, and Treatment Considerations

Vascular calcification (VC) is the ectopic deposition of calcium-containing apatite within vascular walls, exhibiting a high prevalence in older adults, and those with diabetes or chronic kidney disease. VC is a subclinical cardiovascular risk trait that increases mortality and functional deterioration. However, effective treatments for VC remain largely unavailable despite multiple attempts. Part of this therapeutic nihilism results from the failure to appreciate the diversity of VC as a pathological complex, with unforeseeable variations in morphology, risk associates, and anatomical and molecular pathogenesis, affecting clinical management strategies. VC should not be considered a homogeneous pathology because accumulating evidence refutes its conceptual and content uniformity. Here, we summarize the pathophysiological sources of VC heterogeneity from the intersecting pathways and networks of cellular, subcellular, and molecular crosstalk. Part of these pathological connections are synergistic or mutually antagonistic. We then introduce clinical implications related to the VC heterogeneity concept. Even within the same individual, a specific artery may exhibit the strongest tendency for calcification compared with other arteries. The prognostic value of VC may only be detectable with a detailed characterization of calcification morphology and features. VC heterogeneity is also evident, as VC risk factors vary between different arterial segments and layers. Therefore, diagnostic and screening strategies for VC may be improved based on VC heterogeneity, including the use of radiomics. Finally, pursuing a homogeneous treatment strategy is discouraged and we suggest a more rational approach by diversifying the treatment spectrum. This may greatly benefit subsequent efforts to identify effective VC therapeutics.

Recent advances in cardiovascular risk assessment: The added value of non-invasive anatomic imaging

In 2022, multiple original research studies were conducted highlighting the utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) imaging in young individuals and provided further evidence for the role of CAC to improve atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment. Mean calcium density was shown to be a more reliable predictor than peak density in risk assessment. Additionally, in light of the ACC/AHA/Multispecialty Chest Pain Guideline's recent elevation of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) to a Class I (level of evidence A) recommendation as an index diagnostic test for acute or stable chest pain, several studies support the utility of CCTA and guided future directions. This review summarizes recent studies that highlight the role of non-invasive imaging in enhancing ASCVD risk assessment across different populations.

Assessment of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Asymptomatic People In Vivo: Measurements Suitable for Biomarker and Mendelian Randomization Studies

BACKGROUND

One strategy to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease is the early detection and treatment of atherosclerosis. This has led to significant interest in studies of subclinical atherosclerosis, using different phenotypes, not all of which are accurate reflections of the presence of asymptomatic atherosclerotic plaques. The aim of part 2 of this series is to provide a review of the existing literature on purported measures of subclinical disease and recommendations concerning which tests may be appropriate in the prevention of incident cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We conducted a critical review of measurements used to infer the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis in the major conduit arteries and focused on the predictive value of these tests for future cardiovascular events, independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors, in asymptomatic people. The emphasis was on studies with >10 000 person-years of follow-up, with meta-analysis of results reporting adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The arterial territories were limited to carotid, coronary, aorta, and lower limb arteries.

RESULTS

In the carotid arteries, the presence of plaque (8 studies) was independently associated with future stroke (pooled HR, 1.89 [1.04-3.44]) and cardiac events (7 studies), with a pooled HR, 1.77 (1.19-2.62). Increased coronary artery calcium (5 studies) was associated with the risk of coronary heart disease events, pooled HR, 1.54 (1.07-2.07) and increasing severity of calcification (by Agaston score) was associated with escalation of risk (13 studies). An ankle/brachial index (ABI) of <0.9, the pooled HR for cardiovascular death from 7 studies was 2.01 (1.43-2.81). There were insufficient studies of either, thoracic or aortic calcium, aortic diameter, or femoral plaque to synthesize the data based on consistent reporting of these measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of carotid plaque, coronary artery calcium, or abnormal ankle pressures seems to be a valid indicator of the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis and may be considered for use in biomarker, Mendelian randomization and similar studies.

Vendor Independent Coronary Calcium Scoring Improves Individual Risk Assessment: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

BACKGROUND

Substantial variation in Agatston scores (AS) acquired with different computed tomography (CT) scanners may influence patient risk classification.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to develop a calibration tool for state-of-the-art CT systems resulting in vendor-neutral AS (vnAS), and to assess the impact of vnAS on coronary heart disease (CHD) event prediction.

METHODS

The vnAS calibration tool was derived by imaging 2 anthropomorphic calcium containing phantoms on 7 different CT and 1 electron beam tomography system, which was used as the reference system. The effect of vnAS on CHD event prediction was analyzed with data from 3,181 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study on Atherosclerosis). Chi-square analysis was used to compare CHD event rates between low (vnAS <100) and high calcium groups (vnAS ≥100). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the incremental value of vnAS.

RESULTS

For all CT systems, a strong correlation with electron beam tomography-AS was found (R2 >0.932). Of the MESA participants originally in the low calcium group (n = 781), 85 (11%) participants were reclassified to a higher risk category based on the recalculated vnAS. For reclassified participants, the CHD event rate of 15% was significantly higher compared with participants in the low calcium group (7%; P = 0.008) with a CHD HR of 3.39 (95% CI: 1.82-6.35; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The authors developed a calibration tool that enables calculation of a vnAS. MESA participants who were reclassified to a higher calcium category by means of the vnAS experienced more CHD events, indicating improved risk categorization.

Relationship between the triglyceride-glucose index and coronary artery calcification in asymptomatic, non-diabetic patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis

OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is positively and independently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). Insulin resistance is independently associated with CAC and is an important risk factor for CVD. The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable biomarker of insulin resistance. This cross-sectional, observational study aimed to investigate the relationship between the TyG index and CAC in asymptomatic non-diabetic patients undergoing MHD.

METHODS

The quantitative coronary artery calcification score (CACS) was calculated and expressed using the Agatston score. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. Multiple Poisson regression analysis, Spearman correlation analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to investigate the relationship between the TyG index and CAC.

RESULTS

The 151 patients were divided into three groups according to the tertiles of the TyG index. With an increase in the TyG index, the CACS significantly increased (Spearman's rho = 0.414, p < 0.001). Poisson regression analysis indicated that the TyG index was independently related to the presence of CAC (prevalence ratio, 1.281 [95% confidence interval, 1.121-1.465], p < 0.001). Furthermore, ROC curve analysis showed that the TyG index was of value in predicting the CAC in asymptomatic non-diabetic patients undergoing MHD, with an area under the curve of 0.667 (p = 0.010).

CONCLUSION

The TyG index is independently related to the presence of CAC in asymptomatic, non-diabetic patients undergoing MHD.

Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring in Asymptomatic Patients

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is an important prognostic tool for personalized cardiovascular preventive care and has recently been incorporated into American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. CAC provides direct visualization and quantification of CAC burden for risk stratification and primary prevention of cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic population. CAC scoring is recommended for individuals with intermediate 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and selective populations with borderline ASCVD risk. In this review, we outline the interpretation of CAC scores for predicting the risk of cardiovascular events, and we highlight the guidelines for starting statin and potentially starting aspirin therapy. A CAC score of 0 is the strongest negative predictive factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and a 0 score can successfully de-risk a patient. On the contrary, higher CAC scores correlate with worse cardiovascular prognostic outcomes. The CAC scan is a widely available and reproducible means for an early look at the atherosclerotic burden, and it can help strategize early interventions. The CAC interpretation and the decision to start treatment need to be personalized based on individual risk factors. We believe the emerging literature supports our contention that the CAC score can be used more broadly to improve the prophylaxis and treatment of a wider range of apparently healthy patients.

Lipoprotein(a) and coronary artery calcium in comparison with other lipid biomarkers: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is often used for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)].

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations between Lp(a) and baseline CAC (volume/density) and CAC progression compared to other lipid biomarkers.

METHODS

We utilized data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a cohort study of individuals without clinical ASCVD, excluding statin users. We evaluated the associations between Lp(a), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and non-HDL-C with baseline CAC and annual CAC progression using multivariable ordinal regression with adjustment for ASCVD risk factors. Analyses were also stratified by median age.

RESULTS

In 5,597 participants (2,726 at median 9.5-year follow-up), Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was modestly associated with volume progression (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.21). However, other biomarkers were positively associated with baseline volume and volume progression (LDL-C: OR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.19-1.33 and OR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.15-1.30, respectively), except HDL-C which was inversely associated. LDL-C, total cholesterol and non-HDL-C were inversely associated with baseline density. In participants <62 years of age, Lp(a) was modestly associated with baseline CAC volume (OR 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00-1.20) and volume progression (OR 1.16 95% CI: 1.04-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to other lipid biomarkers, Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was only modestly associated with volume progression. Our findings suggest that Lp(a) is not as robustly associated with CAC as other lipid biomarkers.

Lower attenuation and higher kurtosis of coronary artery calcification associated with vulnerable plaque - an agatston score propensity-matched CT radiomics study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) burden assessed by Agatston score (AS) is currently recommended to stratify patients at risk for future acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Besides the CAC burden, the biostructure of CAC may also play a vital role in the vulnerability of CAC, which CT radiomics could reveal. Propensity-score matching of the traditional risk factors and CAC burden between the ACS and asymptomatic groups could radically remove biases and allow the exploration of characteristic features of CAC in ACS.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 77 patients with ACS who had a CAC scan before percutaneous coronary intervention between 2016 and 2019. These 77 patients were one-to-two propensity-score matched for traditional risk factors of ACS and AS ranks to select 154 subjects from 2890 asymptomatic subjects. A validation cohort of 30 subjects was also enrolled. Radiomics features of each plaque were extracted and averaged in each person. Conditional logistic regression and area-under-curve analysis were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A higher number of coronary segments involved, lower mean, median, first quartile, and standard deviation of attenuation, and increased kurtosis of attenuation of CAC were associated with the ACS group compared to the control group (p < 0.05 for all). Multivariable analysis showed that the lower median attenuation (OR = 0.969, p < 0.001) and higher Kurtosis (OR = 18.7, p < 0.001) were associated with the ACS group. The median attenuation and kurtosis significantly increase across AS ranks 1 to 4 (p = 0.001). The AUC of kurtosis (0.727) and median attenuation (0.66) were both significantly higher than that of the standard AS (AUC = 0.502) and the number of TRF (AUC = 0.537). The best cut-off of kurtosis at 2.74 yielded an accuracy of 74%, and the cut-off of median attenuation at 196 yielded an accuracy of 68%. The accuracy of kurtosis was 64%, and the accuracy of median attenuation was 55% in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

After propensity-matching traditional risk factors and CAC burden, CT radiomics highlighted that lower median attenuation and higher kurtosis were the CAC characteristics of vulnerable plaques. These features improve the understanding of the biomechanics of CAC evolution and enhance the value of CAC scan in ACS risk assessment.

Coronary Artery Calcium Dispersion and Cause-Specific Mortality

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measures subclinical atherosclerosis and improves risk stratification. CAC characteristics-including vessel(s) involved, number of vessels, volume, and density-have been shown to differentially impact risk. We assessed how dispersion-either the number of calcified vessels or CAC phenotype (diffuse, normal, and concentrated)-impacted cause-specific mortality. The CAC Consortium is a retrospective cohort of 66,636 participants without coronary heart disease (CHD) who underwent CAC scoring. This study included patients with CAC >0 (n = 28,147). CAC area, CAC density, and CAC phenotypes (derived from the index of diffusion = 1 - [CAC in most concentrated vessel/total Agatston score]) were calculated. The associations between CAC characteristics and cause-specific mortality were assessed. The participant details included (n = 28,147): mean age 58.3 years, 25% female, 89.6% White, and 66% had 2+ calcified vessels. Diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were predictors of multivessel involvement (p <0.001). After controlling for the overall CAC score, those with 4-vessel CAC involvement had more CAC area and less dense calcifications than those with 1-vessel. There was a graded increase in all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and CHD-specific mortality as the number of calcified vessels increased. Among those with ≥2 vessels involved (n = 18,516), a diffuse phenotype was associated with a higher CVD-specific mortality and had a trend toward higher all-cause and CHD-specific mortality than a concentrated CAC phenotype. Diffuse CAC involvement was characterized by less dense calcification, more CAC area, multiple coronary vessel involvement, and presence of certain traditional risk factors. There is a graded increase in all-cause and CVD- and CHD-specific mortality with increasing CAC dispersion.

Coronary Artery Calcium Density and Cardiovascular Events by Volume Level: The MESA

BACKGROUND

The Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides robust cardiovascular disease risk prediction but upweights plaque area by a density factor. Density, however, has been shown to be inversely associated with events. Using CAC volume and density separately improves risk prediction, but it is unclear how to apply this method clinically. We aimed to evaluate the association between CAC density and cardiovascular disease across the spectrum of CAC volume to better understand how to incorporate these metrics into a single score.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants with detectable CAC to evaluate the association between CAC density and events by level of CAC volume using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 3316 participants, there was a significant interaction (P<0.001) between CAC volume and density for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk (myocardial infarction, CHD death, resuscitated cardiac arrest). Models using CAC volume and density resulted in improvement in the C-index (0.703, SE 0.012 versus 0.687, SE 0.013) and a significant net reclassification improvement (0.208 [95% CI, 0.102-0.306]) compared with the Agatston score for CHD risk prediction. Density was significantly associated with lower CHD risk at volumes ≤130 mm3 (hazard ratio, 0.57 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.43-0.75]), but the inverse association at volumes >130 mm3 was not significant (hazard ratio, 0.82 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.55-1.22]).

CONCLUSIONS

The lower risk for CHD associated with higher CAC density varied by level of volume, and volume ≤130 mm3 is a potentially clinically useful cut point. Further study is needed to integrate these findings into a unified CAC scoring method.

Mortality impact of low CAC density predominantly occurs in early atherosclerosis: explainable ML in the CAC consortium

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) models of risk prediction with coronary artery calcium (CAC) and CAC characteristics exhibit high performance, but are not inherently interpretable.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the direction and magnitude of impact of CAC characteristics on 10-year all-cause mortality (ACM) with explainable ML.

METHODS

We analyzed asymptomatic subjects in the CAC consortium. We trained ML models on 80% and tested on 20% of the data with XGBoost, using clinical characteristics ​+ ​CAC (ML 1) and additional CAC characteristics of CAC density and number of calcified vessels (ML 2). We applied SHAP, an explainable ML tool, to explore the relationship of CAC and CAC characteristics with 10-year all-cause and CV mortality.

RESULTS

2376 deaths occurred among 63,215 patients [68% male, median age 54 (IQR 47-61), CAC 3 (IQR 0-94.3)]. ML2 was similar to ML1 to predict all-cause mortality (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.819 vs 0.821, p ​= ​0.23), but superior for CV mortality (0.847 vs 0.845, p ​= ​0.03). Low CAC density increased mortality impact, particularly ≤0.75. Very low CAC density ≤0.75 was present in only 4.3% of the patients with measurable density, and 75% occurred in CAC1-100. The number of diseased vessels did not increase mortality overall when simultaneously accounting for CAC and CAC density.

CONCLUSION

CAC density contributes to mortality risk primarily when it is very low ≤0.75, which is primarily observed in CAC 1-100. CAC and CAC density are more important for mortality prediction than the number of diseased vessels, and improve prediction of CV but not all-cause mortality. Explainable ML techniques are useful to describe granular relationships in otherwise opaque prediction models.

Discordance Between Coronary Artery Calcium Area and Density Predicts Long-Term Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is commonly quantified as the product of 2 generally correlated measures: plaque area and calcium density.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to determine whether discordance between calcium area and density has long-term prognostic importance in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk.

METHODS

The authors studied 10,373 primary prevention participants from the CAC Consortium with CAC >0. Based on their median values, calcium area and mean calcium density were divided into 4 mutually exclusive concordant/discordant groups. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of calcium area/density groups with ASCVD mortality over a median of 11.7 years, adjusting for traditional risk factors and the Agatston CAC score.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56.7 years, and 24% were female. The prevalence of plaque discordance was 19% (9% low calcium area/high calcium density, 10% high calcium area/low calcium density). Female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.27-1.74]) and body mass index (OR: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.76-0.87], per 5 kg/m2 higher) were significantly associated with high calcium density discordance, whereas diabetes (OR: 2.23 [95% CI: 1.85-3.19]) was most strongly associated with discordantly low calcium density. Compared to those with low calcium area/low calcium density, individuals with low calcium area/high calcium density had a 71% lower risk of ASCVD death (HR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.09-0.95]).

CONCLUSIONS

For a given CAC score, high calcium density relative to plaque area confers lower long-term ASCVD risk, likely serving as an imaging marker of biological resilience for lesion vulnerability. Additional research is needed to define a robust definition of calcium area/density discordance for routine clinical risk prediction.

Evolving Role of Calcium Density in Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a specific marker of coronary atherosclerosis that can be used to measure calcified subclinical atherosclerotic burden. The Agatston method is the most widely used scoring algorithm for quantifying CAC and is expressed as the product of total calcium area and a quantized peak calcium density weighting factor defined by the calcification attenuation in HU on noncontrast computed tomography. Calcium density has emerged as an important area of inquiry because the Agatston score is upweighted based on the assumption that peak calcium density and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk are positively correlated. However, recent evidence demonstrates that calcium density is inversely associated with lesion vulnerability and ASCVD risk in population-based cohorts when accounting for age and plaque area. Here, we review calcium density by focusing on 3 main areas: 1) CAC scan acquisition parameters; 2) pathophysiology of calcified plaques; and 3) epidemiologic evidence relating calcium density to ASCVD outcomes. Through this process, we hope to provide further insight into the evolution of CAC scoring on noncontrast computed tomography.

Relationship Between 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose Uptake on Positron Emission Tomography and Aortic Calcification

Introduction: Although ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) has been widely utilized to assess the extent of inflammation, the association between the extent and severity of atherosclerosis and ¹⁸F-FDG uptake on PET remains unexamined. The current study aimed to investigate whether aortic calcium (AC) scores were associated with increased aortic uptake of ¹⁸F-FDG on PET. Methods: A total of 167 consecutive patients with suspected lung cancer but unproven malignancy who underwent non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT were enrolled. The average standardized uptake values in the ascending aorta were used to calculate the target-to-background ratio (Mean TBR). The total (thoracic and abdominal) AC scores were measured on non-contrast-enhanced chest and abdominal CT using the Agatston method, and were categorized into three groups (0, 1-399, and ≥400). The relationship between total AC scores and ¹⁸F-FDG uptake in the ascending aorta was assessed using multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: In total, 68.26% were male, and a mean age was 67.10±14.70 years. Mean TBR values increased progressively with total AC score 0, 1-399, and ≥400 (1.01±0.07, 1.08±0.09, and 1.11±0.11, respectively; p<0.00001). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that increased total AC scores of 1-399 (β=0.06, 95% CI: 0.01-0.11, p=0.02) and ≥400 (β=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06-0.16, p<0.001) were significantly associated with higher Mean TBR. Conclusions: The current study demonstrated that total AC scores were associated with Mean TBR. Patients with a greater extent and severity of aortic calcifications may possess increased atherosclerotic inflammatory activity as measured by ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT.

New Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Techniques for Primary Prevention: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Risk factor-based models fail to accurately estimate risk in select populations, in particular younger individuals. A sizable number of people are also classified as being at intermediate risk, for whom the optimal preventive strategy could be more precise. Several personalized risk prediction tools, including coronary artery calcium scoring, polygenic risk scores, and metabolic risk scores may be able to improve risk assessment, pending supportive outcome data from clinical trials. Other tools may well emerge in the near future. A multidimensional approach to risk prediction holds the promise of precise risk prediction. This could allow for targeted prevention minimizing unnecessary costs and risks while maximizing benefits. High-risk individuals could also be identified early in life, creating opportunities to arrest the development of nascent coronary atherosclerosis and prevent future clinical events.